“Global average sea and air temperatures are spiking in 2023, before El Niño has fully arrived. We should be very concerned.
“Recent spikes in ocean heat content and average global air temperature have left climate scientists across the world scrambling to find the cause… It is now clear that Earth’s climate system is way out of kilter and we should be very concerned.”
“El Niño May Break a Record and Reshape Weather around the Globe. El Niño has arrived, bringing potentially major effects on weather around the world, such as drought and flooding, and possibly setting a new record for the hottest year…
“Adding to the likelihood of a record year with the current El Niño is the fact that the global average ocean temperature was already setting records before the event was declared, L’Heureux says. “That’s pretty bonkers,” she adds.”
“Wow! “The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has had both the most extreme and most accurate forecasts of the developing El Niño. But this forecast, just released, is so extreme it’s hard to believe I’m seeing it.
“3.0°C by October; 3.2°C by November… Wow! …the previous record high super El Niño peaked at 2.6°C in Nov/Dec of 2015.”
https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1671213699875622914
“Global Sea Surface Temperature anomaly with El Niño just getting started…
“In this graph the past three years are highlighted. More recent years are a lighter shade of blue for the rest of the years, from 1982 to 2019. Data can be downloaded here at Climate Reanalyzer.”
https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1671583029456773142
“‘Unprecedented’ ocean heat wave could linger through fall.
“An intense marine heat wave that has fueled record-warm sea surface temperatures in the world’s oceans in recent months could linger well into the fall, according to an experimental forecast produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.”
“This is getting to be utterly unbelievable… the North Atlantic SSTs have just set a new record anomaly on June 20, beating the previous one from June 10.
“At an average temperature of 23.24°C, that’s 1.11°C above the 1991-2020 mean, or +3.87 standard deviations. 1-in-18,650.”
https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1671542248302063618
“‘The Atlantic is … on fire’: Hot ocean fuels early hurricane season…
““This year shows us the potential of climate change,” Berardelli said. “When you take climate change and then on top of it you add natural factors that just happen to line up to create warm temperatures, you’re reaching extremes you’ve never reached in modern history.’”
“4 Hurricane Season Oddities We’ve Seen So Far In 2023.
“Hurricane season in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins is still in its early stages, but we’ve already seen multiple oddities that go against the norm… Atlantic’s First Storm Was In January… Tropical Storm Arlene Takes A Backward Path In The Gulf… Bret Forms In An Unusual Place For June…”
“Sea temperatures in Cornwall are currently at unprecedented levels for the time of year…
“…where it gets extraordinary is from 2018 to 2022 the average sea temperature in Cornwall rose from 14C to 15C for June. Sea Temperature Info is currently recording Cornish seas at an average of between 17.1C and 17.2C.”
“Parts of Dublin and Kerry were hit with severe flooding on Tuesday.
“In Killarney a huge thunderstorm and heavy rainfall this afternoon has resulted in heavy flooding and power outages in Killarney – the third Kerry town to experience major floods in the past days… Dublin City Council said their teams were in the Crumlin area where an “extremely intense” 12mm of rain fell within a five-minute period.”
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/heavy-flooding-hits-dublin-and-kerry-1491946.html
“Desperate firefighters appeal for help as wildfires rip through hundreds of acres of Welsh countryside.
“The continuing epidemic of summer wildfires in Wales has forced two fire services to put out appeals to the public to understand the impact deliberately-lit blazes is having. Firefighters said lives were being put at risk and the countryside destroyed by the fires.”
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/hundreds-acres-welsh-forestry-wildlife-27158646
“Volvic on front line of France’s new water fears.
“The public fountains in Volvic, the home of one of the world’s most famous mineral waters, have been turned off. Just down the road from the bottling factory at the foot of the old volcanic hills of central France, streams once powerful enough to drive flour mills are drying up and villages are under a hosepipe ban.”
https://phys.org/news/2023-06-volvic-front-line-france.html
“To save Alpine glaciers, Swiss team monitors the escalating melt.
“With the glaciers now dwindling at an alarming rate because of human-caused climate change, team members of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology monitor what’s left in an attempt to slow their demise… At the Rhone Glacier, one of the biggest in the Alps, workers prepare huge sheets to cover the ice like blankets in a bid to shield it from the warmth of the summer months.”
https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/ap-photos-save-alpine-glaciers-031857320.html
“Historic event in Corsica. The record of the hottest day in June was obliterated again today [beating the record set yesterday].
“41.6C [107F] Ajaccio Milelli; 41.5C Sartene. Exceptional warmth also at Marignana (515m asl) with Tmin 28.0C Tmax 37.5C (and rising).”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1671519683621666821
“Hotter Than Ever: Canary Islands Hottest Spring Since [records began in] 1961 Leads To Drought Concern As Scorching Summer Begins.
“Spring 2023… has been dry and extremely warm throughout The Canary Islands, off the coast of West Africa, hotter than ever with the highest temps on record… On March 30th, the hottest March day since 1961 was recorded on the Canary Islands…”
“The recent floods in the Western Cape province of South Africa have left two people killed and could cause up to one billion rand (about $54.5 million) damage to local agriculture.
“The Western Cape government said on Tuesday that the initial flood damage assessment is estimated to be between 750 million and one billion rand for the province’s agricultural sector, according to local media.”
https://nagalandpost.com/index.php/2-killed-in-floods-in-south-africas-western-cape/
“Northern Kenya Drought Displaces Millions of People.
“According to UNICEF, over 4 million people in Kenya face severe food insecurity. VOA’s Omary Kaseko visited a family impacted by five seasons of severe drought in the north.”
https://www.voanews.com/a/northern-kenya-drought-displaces-millions-of-people/7144784.html
“The Heat is reaching exaggerated levels in Iran. 50.8C [123.4F] today at Zabol, new world 2023 highest temperature and new record for the town.
“Crazy hot at high elevations: Bam 920m Tmin 34.9 ! Tmax 46.4; 44.1C Saravan 1195m; 43.1C Zahedan 1370m… 49.0C at Nokkundi in Pakistan.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1671548418932523008
“Morgues full and hospitals overwhelmed as India’s heatwave death toll hits 170.
“Officials are investigating the deaths and how many were directly caused by the soaring temperatures. A searing heatwave has swept through two of the most populous states in India, hospitalising hundreds and killing nearly 170 people.”
“Assam Floods: Nearly 120,000 People In 20 Districts Affected.
“According to the reports of the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA), following torrential rains in Assam, other neighbouring states and the neighbouring country Bhutan, the water levels of several rivers are flowing above the danger level mark and inundated new areas.”
“This new heat wave in China reached the capital where temperatures rose above 40C [104F] in Beijing Province at Changping.
“Tomorrow the heat will expand and increase and more records are at threat, including that of Beijing.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1671480202189307906
“A state of emergency has been declared in Uruguay as the water crisis continues to increase due to a drought that has been going on for months.
“Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou told a press conference that they declared a state of emergency to make “legal processes faster and easier” to mitigate the ongoing water crisis, according to a report by Peoples Dispatch.”
“Floods in southern Brazil force evacuation, ravage agricultural sector.
“Rain-triggered floods that hit Rio Grande do Sul state in southern Brazil have been receding at an extremely slow pace, jeopardizing people’s livelihoods and disrupting agricultural harvest.”
“Record heat again in French Guyana. It didn’t miss a month.
“This time it was at St Georges de l’ Oyapock, near the Brazilian border: 35.0C [95F] recorded yesterday is a new record of highest temperature for June.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1671252033741922304
“Panama Canal imposes further restrictions due to severe drought.
“Due to a severe drought, the Panama Canal has been imposing increasingly strict measures. The waterway’s draft will be reduced by approximately 2 meters starting next month, with authorities warning that daily transits may have to be reduced by up to 25% to save water.”
https://safety4sea.com/panama-canal-imposes-further-restrictions-due-to-severe-drought/
“More insane heat in Mexico: in world climatic history perhaps only Chinese 2022 summer heat wave stands at this level.
“Today Monclova with 46.3C [115.3F] beat its all time record again; Hottest day in history for Chihuahua with 41.8C; The heat is spreading to Sonora where will see 50C [122F].”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1671323035448557571
“A searing heat wave has pushed temperatures to record highs in recent days in several cities in South and West Texas, prompting health advisories and pleas for energy conservation.
“Readings in Laredo, Del Rio, San Angelo and Junction were the highest ever recorded, according to the National Weather Service. Corpus Christi logged an unprecedented 125-degree heat index [51.7C]…”
https://www.texastribune.org/2023/06/21/texas-cities-record-heat/
“Tornado in Texas’s Matador leaves at least three dead.
“At least three people were killed and a dozen buildings damaged in a tornado that hit the northern Texas town of Matador on Wednesday, the New York Times reported. The damage prompted a search for people who might have been injured or trapped by debris, the report added, citing authorities.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/tornado-texass-matador-leaves-least-three-dead-nyt-2023-06-22/
“Golf ball-sized hail pelted Louis Tomlinson fans at Colorado’s iconic Red Rocks venue Wednesday night, injuring nearly 100 of the concertgoers, according to officials and video from the scene…
“The injured suffered broken bones and lacerations, according to the rescue service said. “Tonight was the scariest night of my life,” an attendee, Nicole, wrote on Twitter.”
https://nypost.com/2023/06/22/louis-tomlinson-concertgoers-pelted-by-hail-at-colorados-red-rocks/
“Toxic algal blooms are killing hundreds of sea lions and dolphins along the coast of California’s southern beaches.
“More than 1,000 marine animals have become sick or died in June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Experts say algal blooms pose a seasonal issue, but climate change may be worsening the problem.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65966075
“North America Experienced Warmest May On Record.
“In 2023, North America and South America experienced their warmest Mays on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration… Earth’s ocean surface temperatures also set a record high for the second consecutive month…”
https://www.rttnews.com/3371138/north-america-experienced-warmest-may-on-record.aspx?refresh=1
“Snow in June? Freak weather wreaks havoc on Jasper [Alberta, Canada]…
“Jasperites woke up to the white stuff coming down hard on Monday as a freak snowstorm created an unusual start to the week of the Summer Solstice… Two tour buses that tried to drive up Maligne Lake Road where a little more than a metre of snow had landed. They got stuck…”
https://www.fitzhugh.ca/snow-in-june-freak-weather-wreaks-havoc-on-jasper/
““Insane”, “Astonishing” Jet Stream Leaves Scientists “At a Loss” for Words.
“”When I look at this jet stream the word insane comes to mind. It’s even more astonishing when you consider it’s mid June! This configuration, likely enhanced by climate heating, is fueling a record heat dome so extreme that even experts are astonished!””
“Climate change hits Antarctica hard, sparking concerns about irreversible tipping points.
“Humankind’s failure to stop emitting greenhouse gases might result in a new Antarctica, one completely different from the continent that we know today. And researchers have no way of knowing how close to this new world we have come. “With tipping points, you never know whether you’ve come past one,” Fretwell said…”
https://www.space.com/Antarctic-sea-ice-extent-low-climate-change
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
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2023: The year that “may” turned to “is” in news reports of climate change.
Either we refreeze the Arctic or we roast. Simple to see, impossible to do.
“Golf ball-sized hail pelted Louis Tomlinson fans at Colorado’s iconic Red Rocks venue Wednesday night, …”
We could see the lightening associated with the storm from our place 150miles south. A huge storm.
The weather here has been cool and wet all spring and summer. The creek is flowing. The frogs are singing in the wetlands that make up our southern yard. There are a few wild ducks, and I think a coot. Its so nice to see water in Rock Creek after 5 years without.
I guess we have to count such blessings as come our way, Lou. It does sound like it has been very soggy in your part of the world:
“Northeastern Colorado has been soaked since May, thunderstorms and prolonged rains have saturated widespread areas in what’s shaping up to be the wettest start to the year, or close to it, for some cities and towns.
“Rainfall totals from Jan. 1 to June 13 include 14.71 inches in Colorado Springs. The city’s mark is the top of all time for year-to-date rainfall, beating out 2015 (14.11) for the same period. Up and down the Front Range and east of Metro Denver are posting similar rainfall totals…
“On Sunday and Monday 5.44 inches of rain fell at the Colorado Springs Airport, the highest two-day period ever for the location, which serves as an official weather station for the city, said state climatologist Russ Schumacher, director of the Colorado Climate Center.”
https://www.denverpost.com/2023/06/14/northeaster-colorado-record-rainfall-weather/
The problems with bottling water in France have been going on for years and indeed Volvic is ‘making a mess’. It is near us here.
By the way, they are one of the main sponsors for the upcoming Rugby World Cup. They do recognise themselves in Rugby players 😉
……..Three players united by their inherently shared values
With its instantly recognisable and refreshing taste, Volvic is natural mineral water from the volcanic region of Auvergne in France, with a mission to deliver natural[1] and healthy[2] hydration on a daily basis. Volvic has been committed to preserving and protecting this natural ecosystem and its abundant biodiversity for years. B CorpTM certified, Volvic has long been an active and engaged stakeholder in Auvergne with a proud history of supporting rugby in the region. For more than 60 years, Volvic has been an official partner of the club ASM Clermont Auvergne, upholding and promoting the values of rugby.
In this respect, joining the organising committee of France 2023 was an obvious choice. The event, with the world’s best players and the top 20 teams coming to France to compete, takes a more sustainable and socially engaged approach than ever before.
To ensure sustainable hydration in stadiums, team base camps and celebrations, the eight-litre Volvic fountain, made from 100 per cent recycled material[3], will be made available to players, organisers, media and volunteers, along with individual reusable water bottles……. bla bla bla bla
All is well with nature and spring water 🙂 How do they come up with all this madness anyway!
https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/news/785156/volvic-becomes-official-supporter-of-rugby-world-cup-france-2023-and-unveils-a-special-film-depicting-the-power-of-nature
No idea, Zip. 😂
It’s still not as bonkers as the whole Fiji Water craze. Imagine that – relocating drinking water from an island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean to places thousands of miles away that already have perfectly viable drinking water… and people bought into it and paid through the nose for it!
Just seems to be a non-stop bad news situation. I wonder if there is an end in sight?
I hope that in terms of warming there is some regression to the mean once this El Nino dies down but the worsening Earth Energy Imbalance and the warming we have just experienced under a triple La Nina do not reassure me.
This site should have gone viral. Those that call reports negative might be the ones that ‘Can’t handle reality.’ Denial takes little energy compared to taking measures to change.
I’ve been thinking about what could describe what this species has & is doing to it’s habitat.
Picture this rock as a garage with the door closed & no one can get out. The civilization engine is running, pumping out CO2. With the birth of every new child the engine speeds up.
Anyone’s eyes burning? Having trouble breathing? Feeling light headed? You will be.
I’m the bravest man in the history of the world & not afraid to say, overpopulation. Or as Bill Hicks said: “Your children aren’t special.” 😉
“People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage.” – John Kenneth Galbraith
“This site should have gone viral.”
Thank you for the vote of confidence, TR. I’m with you on the issue of overpopulation but it’s not a position I argue much, as I have no solution worth advocating.
TR, you said that denial takes little energy compared to the energy needed to take measures to change. That is true. But what is more true as at this point it is game over. There is no point in doing a damned thing different because the collapse of industrial civilization is to close for any changes to make any difference.
I recently made a comment on the Ian Welsh website. Paraphrased in went like this. i believe that we are living in a simulation that was designed to fail from the get go. But hey I am flexible. I can also explain why humanity is where it is at now with out refering to be stuck in a simulation.
This Explinaiton B, for those who refuse to consider simuation theory as valid is that the military industrial complexes are the behind the scenes rulers of the world. The Pentagon controls most of the world. Whether the MIC of the UK is an equal partner or an lesser partner I am not sure about, but, I suspect a lesser partner. This idea that the militaries of the western world are under civilian control and oversight is pure BS. This view of the control of society by the MIC has been a theme of the far left for decades. The essential correctness of this view should be clear to anyone with a semblence of discernment by now. Whether the President of the US for explicitly follows orders from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or whether he is manipulated by the evidence that is an is not available to him I can not say for sure do to the fact that I have never served at that high of level in the US government. But the idea that things work as advertised is flat out laughable.
In a nut shell what is not laughable is that the US MIC controls the US government. Thought we could say that the US government has a certian level of automony because the MIC does not care about every issue. And the US controls the governments of western Europe through the instituion of NATO. Although as I mentioned the UK might be more than just a colony which Germany and France ,Italy and Poland certianly are. NATO is advertised as a collective defensive alliance. In reality those that geted sucked in to it actually lose their independence. It may be possible to regain independence. Turkey might be an example of that. But appearences could be decieving. Hungary seems to be trying to take an independent from the US position. But we will have to wait and see if the Hungarian leader can make it stick.
The reason that this situation relates to climate change is because the people with real power in the industrialized society of the west no doubt recognized long ago what a bleak future humanity had in the forseeable future. They no doubt calculated that with an extreme effort they could stave off the collapse of industrial civilization by several decades at most. That gain of only several decades was surely not a very good selling point for even making the attempt. But what surely sealed the deal in their minds was that if the effort was going to have a prayer of success the powerful and rich would have to give up many if not all of their previlages. Well there was no way in hell that they would ever agree to that.
Therefore these, probably mostly unelected people made the decision decades ago that the world would continue business as usual, with them at the top of the pyramid as usual, until such time as the house of cards comes falling down. Remember the only alternative was to radically change the way that we live. But doing that would not provide a permant solution. Becuase we humans are not only dependent on energy we are dependent on copper to transfer that energy. At the very minimum metals to transfer that energy. To actually live sustainably humans have to live with what grows. If something requires mining it is not sustainable. Random Cool Stuff has written about this over and over and over and over and over again on the Collapse of Industrial Civilization site. I know that you have read it.
It is only now that I get to the main point of this comment which I had earlier posted on the Ian Welsch website. Which is that if humanity was going to be in a sense saved, and adopt a truely sustainable life style, the only clear theoretical window of opportunity would have been late in the 19th century. But as a practical matter there is no was in hell that a collection of scientists would have been able to convince the leaders of the major politcal establishments at that time to carry out the neccessary reforms. There might have been another theeoretical window of opportunity after WW 1. But by the time the mid 20th century rolled around humanity was so dependent on industrial agriculture to feed the world going back to old way was not possible without causing mass starvation. Humanity had by them overshot its carrying capacity. Whether that occured in 1930 or 1980 I can not say for sure. But somewhere in that time period.
That brings me to to the one thing that really gets me bent out of shape as humanity nears its end point. The US MIC waging war against the entire planet. The population of North America has never been more than 5% of the world’s total. This population has a whole refreshing continent all to itself. The people there, in North America, could have ignored the rest of the world and faded in to the sunset unmolested by the rest of the world as the world slowly died due to global warming, resource deplition, and other environmental dedegridations. The idea that the rest of the world would have used up their diminishing resources to build an army and an invasion fleet to go and steal the diminishing resources of North America is absurd.
But the leadership of North America (and UK?) decided not to act reasonably. They sought to control Middle Eastern fossil fuel supplies to the bitter end. They attempted to maintain their formerly independent but in reality banana republic colonies in Latin America and Africa to the bitter end. And they were not satisfied with that either. They had to attempt to take over the resources of Russia because they were not satisfied with the resources of Africa and Latin America. The spoils of imperialism needed to be split many ways. Planning by the Pentagon to achieve that Russian prize began as early as 1989. And then when the Russian leadership began to fight back in 2022 the US leadership and their Vichy European Partners bitterly complained. Everything that this western alliance accuses Putin and Russia of they are guilty of themselves.
I guess that there is certianly no reason to be surprised by the way that western leaders have behaved over the last 150, or 100 or 50 years Reasonable people do not do well in the field of politics.
I know this because I am a reasonable person. If I had the power to enforce my will on the world. I would hang western leaders from bridges and burn them alive for their behavior. That proves that I am a parigon of reasonable Ness.
I apologise for the small response to such a big post, but I just want to say that I don’t think many hunter-gatherers and more tribal-folk were hooked on industrialisation in the mid-20th century, and so I don’t think it’s fair to say “humanity”-this, “humanity”-that.
It seems more a problem with us civilised people specifically, although I understand if that is unpalatable for the Children of Christ whom were kicked out of The Garden
Yes, I was writing in very broad strokes of course. I did not think that it was necessary to mention hunter gathers and more tribal folk in the mid 20th century because with hunter gathers they were a very small percent of the population that had no influence on the developement of history. More tribal agricultural folk might have had more numbers than hunter gathers but also did hot influence the important events. More importantly many tribal agricultural folk sought to include radios, TV and refrigorators in their lifestyle, if they could manage it.
But as long as we are on the subject of hunter gatherers I would like to mention a couple things that perhaps some younger readers have not considered before, if any younger readers frequent this site.
I do not know what the carrying capacity of the planet would be if everyone were a hunter gatherer. But I am pretty sure that the carrying capacity would be higher if everyone were a farmer. A higher population is both a blessing and a curse. A higher population means more geniuses and more psycopaths. More importantly the development of agriculture creates a prerequisite for the developement of slavery, and therefore imperialism.
It is difficult to make hunter gathers slaves as they can escape and survive outside of a plantation to easily.
Finally an additional consideration. Why did agricultural socialism not become the dominant social economic system in the past. I think the answer is simple. Because decision making in capitalist and military societies is so much easier. Socialism requires huge amounts of discussion to make decsions. The more complex a society becomes the greater the amount of discussion is needed to allocate resources. The decisions made will be fragile because once one group of people think that they are being disadvantaged by the current agreement they will resent the agreement and if they become strident enought their grievences will have to be addressed which will impact someone else.
Capitalism on the other hand is so simple. The way decisions are made is, I have the money so I make the decisions, end of story. And with military societies, I have the rank so I make the decisions. The amount of discussion needed to get something done is miniscule when compared with socialism.
Of course those things that get done will usually not be for the greater good.
There is no socio economic political ideology that can assure success for humans. Only good leadership can assure success. But there is no system that can assure that good leaders get in to the positions in a society that actually make the important decisions.
Humans in western societies thought that they were doing a good job of managing their societies because average life spans were increasing and the average middle class person had a life that an 18th Century Monarch would have envied. These humans did not consider that their success was due to luck, that there were huge amounts of fossil fuels to exploit, rather than good management and administration.
I believe formal agriculture started it. Settling down in one spot and booming population with booming farm yields, and ‘surplus’ energy/food/resources.
Derrick Jensen talks about the rise of cities as the beginning of the end, cities which he defines as a population centre that has to import more resources than it can produce.
Which leads to violence, when one city runs out of its own resources it looks farther afield. If the neighbouring group has it, it will be taken one way or another.
My preference after the eventual population collapses coming our way, is to return to semi-nomadic lifestyles of wanderers, propagating permacultures along the travelling routes. There should be plenty of ‘leftovers’ in the ruins to scavenge, eg tools, with such massive population reduction.
Only permanent settlements will be peopled by the elders and others who cannot travel. Places where travelling bands can stop for awhile, maybe even partake in some scavenged tech. Elecktrickery. Knowledge and learning centres, libraries, first-aid stations, summer schooling for kids, communal stop-overs etc
A hub-and-spoke model, the hubs are permanent, but much smaller than now…. with ‘campsites’ along the spokes or trails. Plant along the way patches of permaculture. Every wandering band, never stays long enough to trash or strip the resources of the place, but leave enough for the next group. Take some seeds to plant elsewhere along the road, herd some critters along, and help improve their habitats etc.
Hard choice rules, on having babies, agreed death penalties etc.
https://youtu.be/4eD9JD0Dx_k
A good podcast on whats going on in China with the drought its not good
Thanks Heather! I spotted that Beijing just broke its June heat record and some all-time records have fallen in that region of China.