“Cooking oils surge is a sign food inflation can go even higher: A fresh spike in cooking oil prices is increasing concerns that global food costs are heading for a record as drought curbs production in South America, a labor shortage stymies output in Malaysia and Indonesia limits exports to safeguard domestic supplies.
“Palm oil, the world’s most consumed cooking oil, climbed to yet another intraday record in Kuala Lumpur on Monday, buoyed by shipment restrictions in top grower Indonesia and a chronic worker shortage in Malaysia’s plantations.”
“Coffee Reserves Plunge to Lowest in More Than Two Decades [since record-keeping began]…
“Coffee reserves certified by ICE have been falling since September due to soaring shipping costs and unfavorable weather that clipped production in Brazil, the world’s largest grower and exporter.”
“Goldman Commodity Veteran Says He’s Never Seen a Market Like It…
““I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Jeff Currie said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.””
“Texas convenience store chain says around 13% of its products are out of stock because of manufacturer shortages.
“Americans have less choice at convenience stores, and for that they can blame the labor shortage and supply-chain crisis. TXB, or Texas Born, a convenience store chain that serves Texas and Oklahoma, is one retailer caught up in the maelstrom.”
“Cost of living crunch already hitting [UK] consumer spending even before inflation peaks.
“The cost of living crunch is prompting Britons to rein in spending even before inflation reaches its expected summit this spring… An erosion in household budgets triggered by inflation hitting its highest level in nearly three decades weighed on consumer spending last month.”
“[The UK] National Grid pays households to ration power use – Electricity operators scrambling to reduce load at peak times as Britain prepares for green revolution…
“From Friday up to 1.4m households will be paid if they cut their normal electricity consumption at certain two-hour periods during the day…”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/08/national-grid-pays-households-ration-power-use/
“France Braces For Blackouts As Gas Stockpiles Dwindle.
“France’s energy problems have been exacerbated by the lower-than-usual capacity at the country’s nuclear power plants [and EDF has just slashed its nuclear output forecast for 2022 to 295-315 terawatt-hours from a previously expected 340-370 terawatt-hour].”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/France-Braces-For-Blackouts-As-Gas-Stockpiles-Dwindle.html
“Greece faces energy crisis as prices spiral…
“The new year found the country in the grip of an unprecedented avalanche of high energy prices, which soon translated into indiscriminate increases in food and goods prices, which gave rise to strong inflationary pressures.”
https://www.financialmirror.com/2022/02/06/greece-faces-energy-crisis-as-prices-spiral/
“Nuclear Power At Full Throttle Underscores Fragility Of Ukraine’s Energy Sector Amid Russian Squeeze – Analysis.
“Since January 30, all 15 of Ukraine’s nuclear reactors have been putting out electricity, marking the longest such stretch of full utilization in the history of a country scarred by the Chernobyl disaster on the Soviet era.”
“EU, US pledge gas cooperation as tensions rise over Ukraine.
“The United States and the European Union pledged on Monday to work to ensure gas supplies can respond to disruptions in pipeline gas flows, as tensions rise over the massing of troops on Ukraine’s borders by Russia, Europe’s biggest gas supplier.”
“U.S. President Joe Biden said the controversial Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany would be stopped if President Vladimir Putin orders an invasion of Ukraine.
““We will bring an end to it,” Biden said at a joint news conference at the White House on Monday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz…”
“China’s property developers are seen having a hard time accessing U.S. bond markets…
““We are seeing the trend of China property turmoil continuing to dampen enthusiasm for some high-yield issuance,” Annalisa Di Chiara, a senior vice president at Moody’s, told CNBC “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.”
“China’s Taking on a Risky Bubble Deflation Experiment…
“In a speculative market, “it is almost impossible to stabilize prices,” as Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University, observed last year in considering the proposed introduction of a property tax. “Once prices stop going up, they must go down.””
“Argentina’s government ordered oil companies and unions to the negotiation table on Monday, temporarily imposing a ceasefire in a worker strike over demands for higher wages that had hit activity in the huge Vaca Muerta shale fields.
“The Private Oil and Gas Union, Argentina largest oil union, went on strike earlier on Monday to demand a hike to wages that have fallen behind spiraling inflation…”
https://wtvbam.com/2022/02/07/argentina-government-orders-oil-sector-talks-after-worker-strike/
“Belize is experiencing a countrywide blackout.
““UNРLАNNЕD РОWЕR ОUТАGЕ FОR ТНЕ ЕNТІRЕ СОUNRТY ОF ВЕLІZЕ,” ВЕL роѕtеd аt 7:07 рm оn Моndау nіght аѕ thе соuntrу wаѕ hіt bу а nаtіоnwіdе роwеr сut. “Оur tеаmѕ аrе сurrеntlу іnvеѕtіgаtіng thе саuѕе оf unрlаnnеd роwеr оutаgе сurrеntlу аffесtіng thе еntіrе соuntrу.””
https://www.breakingbelizenews.com/2022/02/07/belize-is-experiencing-a-countrywide-blackout/
“South Africa’s rand falls as power cuts resume.
“The South African rand weakened against a stronger dollar in afternoon trade on Monday, as domestic headwinds also weighed with power utility Eskom announcing the resumption of schuduled power cuts barely hours after suspending the outages.”
“Consult to avert total collapse of the economy – Mahama [former president of Ghana] tells Nana Addo…
“He said there is no dispute that the economy is in deep crisis marked by huge budget deficits, an unsustainable public debt, rising inflation, a rapidly depreciating currency, an ever-rising cost of living, and a loss of confidence by both domestic and international investors communities.”
“Over the past eighteen months, there have been seven coups and coup attempts in African nations…
“…the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) convened to discuss the unrest, which ECOWAS chair Nana Akufo-Addo described as “contagious” and a threat to the entire region. That’s not wrong, according to Joseph Siegle, research director at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.”
https://www.vox.com/2022/2/5/22919160/coup-guinea-bissau-africa-burkina-faso-sudan-why
“Sri Lanka on brink of sovereign bond default, warn investors.
“Investors are braced for Sri Lanka to join the largest sovereign debtors to default during the Covid-19 pandemic, saying they expect Asia’s top high-yield bond issuer to restructure its debt and call on the IMF for assistance as its financial crisis worsens.”
https://www.ft.com/content/09e1159f-9c45-4379-b862-98cb5e30a4da
“Aid agencies call for Afghan cash flows to be unblocked to relieve crisis.
“The latest western efforts to boost cash flows to Afghanistan will do little to tackle the country’s growing humanitarian crisis without wider reforms to get money to ordinary people, aid agencies have warned… International aid made up about 80 per cent of the previous Afghan government’s budget. But after US and Nato forces left following the Taliban’s takeover in August, governments cut off aid and froze more than $9bn in central bank reserves held overseas.”
https://www.ft.com/content/0dce6c9c-35c8-4d5e-9071-f6428f48fdae
“Is a rift between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban imminent?
“…Tensions over border demarcation and TTP violence may damage relations between Islamabad and Kabul. If no resolution is reached on these issues, this could cause a rift in relations with significant consequences for both Pakistan’s national security and regional stability.”
“Firing from Afghanistan kills 5 Pakistan troops…
“It comes just days after Baloch separatists in the southwest killed nine Pakistan troops in a series of brazen attacks that officials said involved planners from Afghanistan as well as India… The TTP has been emboldened by the return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan and has stepped up attacks since a month-long truce with the Pakistan government ended last year.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220206-firing-from-afghanistan-kills-5-pakistan-troops
“Lebanon banks association rejects government’s draft financial plan.
“Lebanon’s banks have been a major lender to government for decades, helping to finance a wasteful and corrupt state that went into financial meltdown in 2019. The collapse has resulted in depositors largely being shut out of their savings and the local currency losing more than 90% of its value.”
https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/lebanon-banks-association-rejects-government-financial-plan
“Will the world answer Syrian children’s call for help?
“…It has been an exceptionally harsh winter this year in many parts of the region. Severe snowstorms, unseen in decades, have ravaged several areas in Syria and Lebanon where millions of Syrian refugees had taken shelter since the Syrian war began in 2011.”
https://gulfnews.com/opinion/op-eds/will-the-world-answer-syrian-childrens-call-for-help-1.85475976
“Yemen: Intensifying war worsens world’s worst civilian crisis.
“When US President Joe Biden entered the Oval Office last year, there were hopes that Yemen’s crisis would move towards de-escalation with expected changes in American foreign policy. Yet warfare has only intensified this year.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/7/yemen-intensifying-war-worsens-worlds-worst-civilian-crisis
“Geopolitical Risks Amid A Global Pandemic.
“2022 is starting with several issues that could create serious volatility for traders in the months ahead. Aside from the supply chain problems and other economic disruptions caused by the pandemic, tensions triggered in the Indo-Pacific and Eastern Europe have added to growing uncertainty.”
https://www.benzinga.com/government/22/02/25447658/geopolitical-risks-amid-a-global-pandemic
“Markets on edge as central banks walk the inflation tightrope…
“It’s impossible to tell at this point whether the pandemic and the central bank and government responses to it have enabled the major economies to sustainably break out of the low-growth, low-inflation malaise they’ve experienced since 2008.” [No, they haven’t. We have a lack of cheap energy problem!]
“Disinflation Is A Bigger Threat Than Inflation.
“Disinflation, and ultimately deflation, is a more significant threat than inflation over the next two years. However, in the short term, the spike in inflationary measures is dominating headlines.”
[FWIW, this is broadly how I see it. Perhaps easier just to say that we are moving into an era which for most of us will be defined by a growing sense of our purchasing power waning – perhaps even collapsing.
The inflation vs. deflation debate seems a little binary and redundant for describing our current, unprecedented situation, which is the global financial system reaching the limits of its ability to compensate for and “work around” worsening energy/resource-constraints; this on top of the jarring effects of the pandemic on energy flow-rates, availability of labour, supply/demand equations etc].
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484961-disinflation-is-a-bigger-threat-than-inflation
“Unesco warns of crisis in creative sector with 10m jobs lost due to pandemic.
“Ten million jobs in creative industries worldwide were lost in 2020 as a result of the Covid pandemic, and the increasing digitisation of cultural output means it is harder than ever for artists to make a living, a Unesco report has said.”
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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I would like to become a supporter, I think your work is outstanding, and the issues you raise important, and all but ignored by the MSM. But why can’t I give a donation without having my account debited every month? Shouldn’t I be allowed to choose how often I forward payment? Every time I go to donate, I run into the same roadblock. There are just too many online and other subscriptions that wish to create a revenue stream from my checking acct for me to track them if I used your method, so, if it’s possible, why not create an additional option so I can make an annual/semi-annual donation? You definitely deserve it, your site is unique, valuable, and one of my few go-to sites. Thank you.
Robert, thank you for the very kind words and you are welcome.
It isn’t perhaps as clear as it could be, and actually I’ve just confused myself looking at it, but there is a facility for a one-time donation via Paypal if you click on the “Support” page at the top.
With best wishes,
Justin P