28 Comments

1. 

   George Kaplan on October 3, 2026 at 10:23 am

   Stena Evolution is a 7th generation drill ship with day rates just short of half a million and a five year contract with Shell, with the last four dedicated to Sparta following upgrade to a very expensive 20,000psi blowout preventer. After about a year and over a quarter billion total drilling costs there are no completed wells – three abandoned, one side tracked (but no sign of completion on the new borehole after two months drilling), and three cancelled. There are seven targets left.

   The cancelled wells, and the short time of drilling for the abandoned wells, imply drilling is not possible in some areas, probably because of salt layers, making the future drilling and completion programme still more expensive.

   Shell may be wondering if it was a good idea to take over the development after three other companies had tried and pulled out, but it is probably already three billion in the hole, and BP may be increasing its efforts to offset its own risk exposure by selling some of its two upcoming 20,000 psi projects. More Paleogene problems are evinced by the rapid decline in Shenandoah – after nine months it has declined 40% from peak, it never reached design capacity and two of the four wells have rapidly growing water cuts.

   There is a lot of noise in the numbers but it looks like GoM production is declining fairly linearly at around 250,000 bpd per year. Earlier this year several largish wells were completed as part of the final ramp-ups of some recent projects. There is nothing similar in the pipeline now, so next year’s decline will be larger. After that exponential decline of around 10 to 15% will set in, interrupted by the three new projects (but I doubt any will achieve their nameplate capacity for long, if at all).

   By 2030, given normal activity, the largest producers, Shell, BP, Chevron and Occidental, will be selling off their older assets (a process just begun with Shell’s sale of it’s Na Kika holdings). By then, however, civilisation collapse will be well under way.

   One group will have realised that there isn’t as much oil as they’d been led to believe and another that renewables aren’t that great if they are your only choice (or maybe not given the power of cognitive dissonance). Energy prices could be very volatile, there will likely be a lot of government intervention, financial methods for debt and investment will be different and countries would be forced towards simplification, even shorter term outlooks and more isolated autarkies.

   By coincidence GoM, Norway and Kazakhstan all produced about 2 mmbpd last year, after a period of growth, and are now going to follow similar decline curves. The three countries with slightly lower production, Mexico, Angola and Nigeria, are also moving from near plateaus to steeper decline.

   • 

     Cassandra on October 3, 2026 at 11:59 am

     Another valuable update, George!

     “By then [2030], however, civilisation collapse will be well under way.”

     Except for almost all humans, all life (what’s left of it) on this planet will be celebrating!

   • 

     Panopticon on October 3, 2026 at 4:12 pm

     Thank you, George – fascinating stuff. This Sparta patch sounds like a logistical nightmare:

     “At 20,000 psi, the well must behave like a high-pressure fire hose… a single weak point can compromise the entire system… Every part of the system exposed to pressure had to be reinforced. Stronger pipes, designed with advanced steel technology, carry fluids between the seabed and the surface, while precision-engineered valves regulate and isolate flow if required.

     “At the seabed, the 20K blowout preventer – an 18-metre-tall (60-foot) device weighing more than 10 heavy-duty trucks – acts as one of the system’s final safeguards. Mounted at the wellhead, it uses multiple redundant sealing mechanisms to shut in the well within seconds if abnormal pressures are detected.”

     https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/our-stories/sparta-unlocking-energy-once-thought-out-of-reach.html

     • 

       Panopticon on October 3, 2026 at 4:13 pm

       No reprieve for the creatures that live there, unsurprisingly:

       “A lawsuit challenging the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s determination that oil and gas activities in the Gulf of America may be exempt from the Endangered Species Act’s requirements was dismissed this week by the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.”

       https://1819news.com/news/item/court-determines-gulf-of-america-oil-gas-activities-may-be-exempt-from-endangered-species-act

2. 

   zip on October 3, 2026 at 12:20 pm

   The perfect middle-class apocalypse.

   Civilization may be collapsing, supply chains may be breaking down and the delivery vans may soon run out of diesel — but please, no canned beans. Jarred only. And the olives had better be Perelló.

   There is something wonderfully revealing about preparing for the failure of a complex industrial society by logging into the Sainsbury’s delivery app and ordering products that depend on that same complex industrial society functioning almost perfectly.

   In reality, collapse probably won’t announce itself with zombies at the garden gate. It will be much more irritating. First the preferred olives are unavailable.
   Then the artichokes disappear. Delivery becomes expensive. The supermarket reduces twelve varieties to three because maintaining slow-moving stock no longer makes economic sense. Tuna costs twice as much. Eventually the delivery slot is Thursday afternoon or nothing.

   The lights still work. The supermarket is still open. Nobody calls it collapse. There is simply less choice, less convenience, less redundancy and a little more expense every year.

   That is why I increasingly find grand descriptions of “the collapse of industrial civilization” rather unhelpful. Complex systems can become considerably poorer and simpler while continuing to function. Most people will adapt long before they describe what is happening as collapse.

   And that makes the author’s horror at corned beef rather charming.
   Perhaps the real middle-class apocalypse begins not when there is nothing left to eat, but when there is plenty to eat and none of it is quite what you wanted.

   Still, I would keep one tin of corned beef. For research purposes, obviously.

   • 

     Survivalist on October 3, 2026 at 12:46 pm

     Can you imagine the horror when it’s only root veg all winter and an orange at Christmas… like it was for my mom in the 50’s; my gran didn’t get her first fridge until she’d 1/2 raised three daughters.

     Those who lack tolerance and perseverance will embroil themselves in one madness or another, and drag many more into it with them if they happen to be the seeking attention type and who has some social media cachet.

     I recommend getting enough food for a few years and then laying low for a bit if needed.

     #smalltownlife

   • 

     Panopticon on October 3, 2026 at 4:25 pm

     Zip, I must admit that the author’s self-satisfied flippancy got a little bit under my skin, but I think I misinterpreted the article. It is just a jovial fluff-piece and not actually mocking the very idea of prepping, which is how I read it at first.

     “…a little more expense every year.”

     Food prices are up roughly 40% in the UK since the Ukraine war started in 2022. That is more than a little. At some point this erosion of our living standards is going to result in major financial upheaval. We may get our zombies yet.

3. 

   jupiviv on October 3, 2026 at 12:42 pm

   Based on my conversations with zoomer colleagues and family members, Gen Z is decidedly blackpilled on climate change, which is to say they expect no real mitigation on baked in climate change and see a combination of “adaptation” and green transition (to prevent further damage) as the best/only way out. But do they truly believe in a way out? Maybe they’re just saying that because to say otherwise is unacceptable to a 25 y.o who wants to get a good job and consequently land himself a hot waifu.

   Apparently zoomers are starting to drink as much as previous generations, despite earlier projections of declining susceptibility to hooch and despite beer prices tracking inflation 1:1.

   Canst thou not minister to a mind diseased,
   Pluck from the memory a rooted sorrow,
   Raze out the written troubles of the brain
   And with some sweet oblivious antidote
   Cleanse the stuffed bosom of that perilous stuff
   Which weighs upon the heart?

   Why yes we can Mr Macbeth. Philosophers call it ‘Miller Time’.

   • 

     Nobody on October 3, 2026 at 1:10 pm

     Have to admit, “a hot waifu” caught me off guard. I did not expect to hear this combination of words here of all places.

     It varies. In general I’d say the trend is to ignore things they have no control over (even if they are aware) and enjoy the present, because tomorrow is uncertain.

     • 

       Cassandra on October 3, 2026 at 1:56 pm

       “I did not expect to hear this combination of words here of all places.”

       I agree you won’t hear much like that here except from jupiviv who quite frequently reveals his straight male orientation and his expectation that all the readers here are the same.

       • 

         jupiviv on October 3, 2026 at 3:03 pm

         The ambition to have a good career is gender neutral since likelihood of marriage is increasingly linked to similarly credentialed employment of both spouses. So “hot waifu” is incidental to the point i.e having a viable future. Still I apologize if that specific term offended you or anyone else.

         I will admit I tend to assume doomer spaces are male by default. Some of the more right leaning ones probably are but certainly not CE, which for some people might be an antidote to the occasionally/often toxic atmosphere of the former. You know what, I stand corrected and promise to rein in my ribaldrous tendencies when posting here. And I thank you for your criticism, Cassandra.

         • 

           Panopticon on October 3, 2026 at 5:01 pm

           Re C&E, the demographic skews somewhat male but there are a lot of female readers, too. Waifu is a new one on me.

           “Waifu is a term used to refer to a fictional female character towards whom one feels romantic or sexual attraction… Husbando is the male equivalent… As of 2025, approximately 38% of anime fans report having a waifu or husbando. Modern generative AI chatbots also allow fans to interact with digital representations of their waifus, especially through virtual, extended, and augmented reality.”

           https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waifu

           • 

             Panopticon on October 3, 2026 at 5:03 pm

             When matters of sexual preference crop up, I always think of the wonderfully shameless Bishop of Bath & Wells in Blackadder II. At one point he declares:

             “You see, I am a colossal pervert. No form of sexual depravity is too low for me. Animal, vegetable or mineral – I’ll do anything to anything.”

             To which Edmund Blackadder replies, “Fine words for a Bishop. It’s nice to hear the Church speaking out for a change on social issues.” 😂

       • 

         Panopticon on October 3, 2026 at 4:57 pm

         “Apparently zoomers are starting to drink as much as previous generations…”

         Jupiviv, my Zoomer eldest is certainly discovering the joys of alcohol, having been a fairly straight-laced teen. Financial pressures mean he and his peers tend to drink supermarket booze at home and go out less frequently though. Tough times for venues:

         “The report reveals how a challenging 12 months led to a 4.1% net decline in the number of venues operating late at night in Britain. This segment of hospitality, which includes clubs, casinos, late bars and similar venues, is now 28.2% smaller than it was in March 2020, when COVID-19 lockdowns led to a wave of closures.”

         https://nielseniq.com/global/en/insights/analysis/2026/hospitality-and-the-night-time-economy-the-state-of-play-in-2026/

4. 

   VPK on October 3, 2026 at 5:13 pm

   And you actually think we are serious in addressing this so called crisis?

   Key Takeaways:
   The U.S. has the resources and the responsibility to finance equitable global climate action. It is both the largest historical driver of global warming and the world’s wealthiest country, with the largest military budget.

   Over the last decade, U.S. funding to the Green Climate Fund, the primary fund for international climate resilience, totaled $2 billion. In the same period, Congress approved at least $79 billion – 40 times more funding – in aid to foreign countries to finance the purchase of U.S.-made weapons.

   To avoid the most destabilizing effects of a warming planet at home and abroad, the U.S. must rebalance foreign aid priorities and commit to providing a fair share of global climate adaptation and mitigation efforts– and end the arms aid that fuels conflict and enriches corporations that profit from endless war and climate collapse.

   https://www.nationalpriorities.org/analysis/2024/weapons-warming-world-us-contributions-green-climate-fund-vs-foreign-military-fi/

   In FY 2023 alone, nearly two-thirds of the federal discretionary budget funded the military-industrial complex and militarized spending, dwarfing public investment in climate action.

   Hmmm…something wrong around here
   Joe Jackson

   • 

     Panopticon on October 3, 2026 at 6:43 pm

     I wondered if Joe Jackson were still alive, Vince. Turns out not only is he still alive but he is on tour and will be in Glasgow on the 9th. Shame I can’t make that.

     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJwt2dxx9yg

     Obviously, I agree with the National Priorities Project, even as I know their admonitions will be entirely ignored.

     • 

       VPK on October 3, 2026 at 9:28 pm

       Thanks Pan, Good to hear Joe us still Steppin Out on stage and in your neck of the woods. Believe it or not, Rod Mod Stewart last official concert date before kicking up his heels is in Medford Massachusetts, a place I lived at for a few years in the 90s near Boston. Boy, were has the years gone? I’m just so glad I’m an old somewhat grumpy Boomer that just shrugs and says oh well, the BAU will go on until it cant

       • 

         Panopticon on October 4, 2026 at 12:26 pm

         Sad that he is having to hang up his gloves, Vince. Such an effortlessly soulful performer.

         https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Azcy9_F0DCE

         • 

           VPK on October 4, 2026 at 1:22 pm

           Pan, my bad it was Rodger Daltry of the who playing there, he’s retiring too
           Everyone is going out to pasture

5. 

   George Kaplan on October 4, 2026 at 7:21 am

   There’s a scene in Come and See where the male and female protagonists leave the boy’s deserted village. The girl looks back and sees the bodies of the villagers stacked like logs of wood. The massacre was prompted by the boy’s actions. She does not tell the boy what she sees and they move on to fresh horrors. It’s always stuck with me as an encapsulation of where we are now in civilisation’s collapse, I’m not sure exactly why – hubris, denial, worse to come, unwanted consequences, existential threat, occasional awareness and kindness?

   Collapse 2050 says something similar: “This is a film everyone should watch at least once in their lifetimes. ”

   https://www.collapse2050.com/must-watch-come-and-see/

   (Live bullets were often used through the filming.)

   • 

     Panopticon on October 4, 2026 at 12:39 pm

     I’ve never heard of it George, but the accolades are impressive:

     “In 2008, Come and See was placed at number 60 on Empire magazine’s “The 500 Greatest Movies of All Time”. It also made Channel 4’s list of 50 Films to See Before You Die and was ranked number 24 in Empire magazine’s “The 100 Best Films Of World Cinema” in 2010.”

     The Eastern Front was so hideous. I hadn’t realised until I read “Blitzed” by Norman Ohler how extensively Pervitin (meth, basically) was used by the Germany military, which added another dimension to their savagery. And now all those ghosts are stirring…

     • 

       Survivalist on October 5, 2026 at 12:30 am

       The film is a fine way to ruin an otherwise lovely day.

       Draw a north-south line going through Moscow and another one going through Berlin. How many people do you think died between those two lines of longitude from 1914 to 1945? 40 million?

6. 

   Martin on October 4, 2026 at 11:52 am

   As much I might like to leave jupiviv out there hanging, I do feel it necessary to comment with a very serious comment about the deep adaptation deep collapse simplifying deep stuff.
   Namely: Rachel Millward.

   • 

     Panopticon on October 4, 2026 at 12:59 pm

     She is Deputy Leader of the UK’s Green Party, for those who don’t know. This is the transcript of the speech she gave yesterday at the Green Party conference:

     https://greenparty.org.uk/2026/10/03/rachel-millwards-speech-to-conference-in-full/

     “Imagine, for a second, that instead of new technology being owned by silicon valley proto-fascists, it was owned by us. AI that serves communities, instead of the billionaires who buy our democracy.”

     Sounds like she has bought into the idea that AI is the new means of production and plans on seizing it.

     The stuff about nature being given rights and the respect it deserves is nice but whoops – there are already 70 million people (plus attendant infrastructure) crammed onto these small islands, who need feeding, clothing, housing, occupying and entertaining, and who will not put up with declining prosperity. This is why I have largely checked out of the political discourse.

7. 

   Martin on October 4, 2026 at 1:22 pm

   Yes, but as the face of collapse politics, she is, well, to be polite, she is, well, how shall I put it,.she is fully and completely not Mitch Farage. More like Princess Diana/ Zooey Deschanel.

   • 

     Panopticon on October 4, 2026 at 2:26 pm

     I watched some footage of her actual speech. I fear I am so jaded that anyone engaging in that stylised political rhetoric as they battle for hearts and minds now looks a bit mad to me.

     The whole endeavour just feels phony, propped up on erroneous assumptions about where we are and what is possible moving forwards, however good the intentions may be:

     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQZcl1VPAUU

     She is indeed more Zooey than Farage in style though.

8. 

   John on October 7, 2026 at 6:03 pm

   What puzzles me is that many of you dismiss mainstream energy forecasts, mainstream economic forecasts, and mainstream climate forecasts, then replace them with an outcome far more extreme than even RCP8.5 ever implied. RCP8.5 was widely criticized as an increasingly implausible future, yet some commenters here seem convinced reality will be worse than RCP8.5 while offering remarkably little evidence. A world that warms around 2°C to 3°C by 2100 faces serious risks and adaptation challenges, but that’s very different from claiming civilization is collapsing by 2030.

   • 

     Panopticon on October 8, 2026 at 8:05 am

     John, your comment got held in moderation, as I don’t think you have commented before, and then will be rather lost on this 3rd Oct page. Please feel free to repost to today’s thread.