Huge thanks to August’s sponsor, who wishes to remain anonymous. At his request, I’m sharing a link to his brief but fascinating essay about Shakespeare’s The Tempest and the origins of Britain’s enslavement of Africans. He welcomes feedback in the comments section.
“It’s likely that 2026 will be the hottest year on record, experts say…
““We are likely to see something quite dramatic in the next year or so,” Robert Rohde, chief scientist at Berkeley Earth, said on Thursday. “It will be giving us weather conditions that we would normally expect to be a decade or more away. It’s going to be a big deal.””
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/environment/2026/08/14/2026-hottest-year/
“Today’s water-cooler conversation:
“”Hey Pat, did you know it was the hottest August 12th globally on record since 1940 and likely the hottest August 12th in the last 120,000 years, at 1.58°C (2.84°F) above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline? …And who brought the cookies?” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2088247073095491639
“I’ve never seen the mean Warm Pool displaced this far east before. 30C temperatures down to 100m at 150W is absolutely ludicrous…
“I’m very confident this yr’s El Nino will be the strongest in the entire instrumental record (1850-present), even besting historic events like 1877-78. This will probably be the strongest El Nino in at least ~250 yrs, or since the Great El Nino of 1789-93.” [Eric Webb, gov’t meteorologist]
https://x.com/webberweather/status/2088350991016173871
“The Atlantic Ocean can handle more warming than expected — with one big catch…
“When warming occurred slowly, the AMOC remained stable well beyond +4°C and did not collapse even after warming reached +5°C. Under the faster warming scenario, however, the AMOC collapsed at around +2°C [we breached that very briefly in Nov 2023 and will breach it for a sustained period with this El Nino IMO].”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/08/260814011031.htm
“Europe’s extremely hot summer has not just contributed to another disastrous alpine melting season, but also far North in Scandinavia.
“The Norwegian Galdhøpiggen glacier around 2000m asl looks in terrible shape with a larger and larger lake formed by its melting. Kudos: vindnå.no. [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2087904745532866785
“The prolonged heat and drought together with a spate of pollution incidents are creating a “lethal” combination for Ireland’s rivers, Inland Fisheries Ireland (IFI) has said.
“The agency is investigating six large fish kills that took place in the last six weeks, with two other pollution incidents also under investigation.”
“Marine heatwave devastates seagrass conservation project on Welsh coast.
“Seagrass meadows play an important role in tackling both climate change and biodiversity loss, but the UK has lost around 90% of its seagrass meadows over the last century.”
“The UK’s arable harvest is now expected to be even smaller than previously forecast – just 18.5 million tonnes…
“The revised forecast is down from the previous estimate of 19.5 million tonnes, and would make this year’s harvest the smallest on record, by a wider margin than previously expected.
https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/uk-harvest-even-worse-than-previously-thought-new-data
“The UK’s fifth heatwave of the summer has “presented exceptional challenges to the railway”, Network Rail has said, after two trains derailed in less than 24 hours…
“Xueyu Geng, a professor in ground engineering at the University of Warwick, said steel rail was known to expand significantly in extreme heat…”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/aug/14/train-derails-near-essex-town-of-wickford
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN UK – over 50 long time stations had their hottest August day/night on record; these stations broke all-time records:
“Pershore, Astwood, Ross-on-wye, Shawbury, Little Rissington, Westonbirt, Odiham, Lineham, Alice Holt, Yeowilton, Whitechurch and Dunkeswell.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2087995788550897781
“EXTRAORDINARY DAY IN FRANCE >43C [109.4F]. It’s one of the most extreme heat waves France has ever experienced.
“In 2 days over 500 monthly records broken, between High maxes and High Mins; see list of records broken today (courtesy of Meteociel; yellow is monthly record and red is all-time record). [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2088329904580329528
“Extreme heat spurs earliest-ever Champagne harvest, putting its famous taste to the test.
“Winemakers generally expect lower yields this year following extreme weather conditions and drought, while they also face a challenging macro environment including fewer drinkers and U.S. tariffs. One industry benefiting from warmer temperatures is U.K. wine production, as new grapes become viable in the country’s chalky soil.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/15/heatwave-champagne-harvest-climate.html
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN BENELUX.
“Nearly 100% of the stations broke their August records of highest temperatures (but not all time). See main records broken:
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2088339103741874346
“In Germany record heat meets climate action fatigue.
“Something very strange is happening in Germany in the summer of 2026: While entire villages are being evacuated due to forest fires, farmers are losing around their harvest to drought, and hospital patients and the elderly in nursing homes face an acute threat to their lives in buildings with no air conditioning, the federal government remains astonishingly quiet.”
https://amp.dw.com/en/in-germany-record-heat-meets-climate-action-fatigue/a-78374727
“‘We will miss glacier meltwater,’ warns Swiss scientist.
“Will conditions get worse? E.F.: Yes. In the future, we will also miss the meltwater supplied by glaciers. For now, it still helps sustain Alpine rivers. Once the glaciers are gone, this compensating factor will be lost.”
“Skies turn red as wildfires burn across Europe – with thousands of people evacuated.
“Firefighters in France, Germany, Croatia and Greece are among those battling blazes that threaten to destroy homes and businesses. It comes as wildfires also rage in the UK, with the country experiencing the summer’s fifth heatwave…”
“HISTORIC HEAT IN THE BALKANS; Mind blowing RECORD MINIMUMS:
“MONTENEGRO – Min 31.8 / 89.2F Bar (yesterday) is HOTTEST NIGHT EVER RECORDED IN THE BALKANS; 30.9 Tivat, 28.5 Podgorica AP; CROATIA – Min 30.7 Dubrovnik, 28.0 Zadar, 27.8 Ploce; SLOVENIA – 26.2 Nova Gorica.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2087932962620784852
“A boiling Mediterranean — When rising sea temperatures reshape our reality.
“The Mediterranean Sea, historically a cradle of civilizations and a regulatory element of Southern Europe’s climate, is undergoing an unprecedented transformation. This August, water temperatures reached unheard-of figures…”
“Iberian orca known for ramming boats seen with suspected gunshot wounds…
“On Friday, Spain’s environment ministry said Toñi, the oldest living member of the pod, had been seen swimming in the Strait of Gibraltar with markings on her dorsal fin that were “consistent with shots from a pellet gun”.”
“Disturbing scenes of torrential floods that swept through Douar Al-Zaouia in the commune of Berkane in Guercif Province [Morocco], this Friday evening.
“Several cars were swept away and one of them to overturned in the midst of the waters.” [Arab Storms]
https://x.com/Arab_Storms/status/2088336112788046080
“Sudden floods sweep through wide neighborhoods of the city of Adré in Chad’s eastern Wadi province, following heavy rains that hit the region on August 11.
“The disaster has resulted in the death of at least five people, alongside the inundation of shops and homes…”
[Arab Storms]
https://x.com/Arab_Storms/status/2087963156232712418
“Another summer night in SOUTH AFRICA winter.
“More records of winter Highest Minimums pulverized with extreme margins today: 18.0 [64.4F] Mossel Bay, 17.9 Swellendam, 17.6 George, 14.9 Langensburg.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2088236807934574837
“More people, farms, and drought could mean more elephant conflict in Southern Africa.
“A growing human population, expanding croplands, and drier conditions driven by climate change within protected areas could significantly intensify human-elephant conflict in Southern Africa, a recent study finds.”
“Wildlife cyanide poisoning: Time to review Kenya’s pesticide governance?
“For Kenya, a country that spent decades battling poaching and rebuilding its wildlife population, the recent deaths of 16 elephants have triggered a troubling question: Have Kenyan wildlife agencies won the war against guns and traps only to face a more elusive threat in the form of poison?”
https://www.trtafrika.com/article/b5bb0fa453ee
“Sudden floods and torrents sweep through several areas in Idlib province, northwestern Syria, following heavy thunderstorms, flooding roads and a number of vehicles, this Friday.
“We ask God for safety for everyone.”
[Arab Storms]
https://x.com/Arab_Storms/status/2088337555045728380
“MIDDLE EAST HEAT WAVE.
“This exceptional and endless heat wave just gets worse with records falling every day, everywhere. Tonight the SAUDI town of Makkah broke again its record of August hottest night with a MINIMUM of 35.6C [96.1F]! Next days will be insane: 52/53C in IRAN.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2088291416455696451
“Crisis Looms in Southern Iraq over Water, Electricity Shortages.
“The worsening electricity crisis in Iraq continues to burden most of the population, amid rising temperatures that have surpassed 50 degrees Celsius in some southern governorates. There are fears that the crisis could lead to local conflicts between some governorates…”
“Heavy Monsoon Rains Cause Severe Flooding Across Northern Iran.
“Heavy monsoon rains that swept across several Iranian provinces from Wednesday evening, August 12, through early Thursday morning, August 13, triggered severe flash flooding, blocking rural access roads and causing significant damage to agricultural sectors and public infrastructure.”
https://iranwire.com/en/news/156293-heavy-monsoon-rains-cause-severe-flooding-across-northern-iran/
“This exceptional heat wave in CENTRAL ASIA is beyond any imagination with thousands of records falling for months and will go on for the foreseeable future.
“Tonight it was another scorching night with MINS up to 32C [89.6F] and more monthly records like the Min 28.0 at Sam, KAZAKHSTAN 45N.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2087879361982500883
“Torrential rains, cloudbursts, hailstorms lash Kashmir, trigger flash floods.
“Plains of Kashmir received rain, while several upper areas of south Kashmir witnessed hailstorms and cloudbursts, with swollen streams and sudden surges in water reported from vulnerable areas.”
“Five killed, eight missing after landslide buries homes in western Nepal…
“As of Wednesday, 43 people had been killed in monsoon-related disasters such as landslides, floods and heavy rains, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, the state-run authority responsible for disaster response.”
https://www.trtworld.com/article/9fee0bd49d5e
“Henan province [China] has suffered multiple levee breaches since Wednesday as a result of rains brought by Typhoon Dolphin, the 13th typhoon of this year.
“A levee on the east bank of the Jialu River in Zhoukou, Henan province, breached due to persistent heavy rainfall and upstream flood-release operations, according to a CCTV report on Friday.”
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202608/15/WS6a7fa6d3a31073853ec536eb.html
“Typhoon Dolphin brought extreme rain to Huzhou, Zhejiang [E China]! Tonight, Zhili AWS, Huzhou, received 232.4 mm [9.1 inches] of rainfall in one hour, setting a new record for the highest hourly rainfall intensity observed by the Chinese meteorological system!
[Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/2088282801913426425
“Authorities in Far East Russia’s Zabaikalsky region declared a state of emergency on Thursday following a summer of torrential rainfall and three consecutive flood waves…
“Rainfall across the region — located along the Chinese border roughly 4,700 kilometers (2,900 miles) east of Moscow — reached up to 250% of seasonal averages this summer.”
“‘Unprecedented’ rain in Japan kills eight people.
“Chiba, which sits right next to Tokyo, has logged more than 100mm of rain per hour since Thursday afternoon, authorities say. This is about three times the average rainfall in August, and the highest volume of precipitation ever recorded in the country.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq561gpen8lo
“As floods devastate Mekong communities, economic strain, conflict compound crisis.
“Tens of thousands of people have been displaced by surging waters across Myanmar and Laos, with Thai farming communities along the Mekong River bracing themselves for difficult days ahead as authorities warn persistent heavy rains may bring flash floods.”
“Myanmar diarrhoea outbreak sees hundreds hospitalised amid monsoon flooding and civil war…
“Aung Lin Aye, deputy medical superintendent at Yangon General Hospital, was quoted in Friday’s paper stating that diarrhoea admissions had increased significantly over recent days, with hospital staff providing treatment focused primarily on preventing further loss of life.”
“SE ASIA RECORD HEAT:
“More records of August Highest Minimums: PHILIPPINES – 28.0 Catarman; VIETNAM – 29.9 Bach Long Vi; MALAYSIA – 26.8 Kuantan; INDONESIA – 28.0 [82.4F] Tarakan (it’s cooler season!). [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2087855521847976303
“Indonesia wildfires threaten orangutans rescued from animal traffickers…
“Flames have come within metres of an animal rehabilitation centre in West Kalimantan as hot, dry and windy conditions have been amplified by a powerful El Niño and the human-driven climate crisis.”
“Bird flu has been evolving and migrating for 30 years. It is a far more deadly virus that has now arrived in Australia…
““Influenza viruses and how they impact different hosts is really a numbers game,” Wong says. “The more types of host animals that it is allowed to infect without there being some control, the more chances it has to pick up new traits.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/15/bird-flu-h5n1-mutation-more-deadly-virus-australia
“Hawaii braces for direct hit from Tropical Storm Lala.
“Tropical Storm Lala is set to hit Hawaii’s Big Island with hurricane force in a matter of hours, bringing dangerous winds, heavy rainfall and high surf in a sign of what a strengthening “super” El Niño in the Pacific may bring.“
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/14/hawaii-tropical-storm-lala
“Displaced by El Niño, South American Seabirds Flock to Panama.
“Flocks of seabirds native to the cold, nutrient-rich waters off Peru and Chile are appearing far outside their usual range in Panama Bay as a powerful El Niño warms the eastern Pacific and disrupts marine food supplies.”
“EXTRAORDINARY EVENT – WORLD CLIMATIC HISTORY REWRITTEN:
“For the FIRST TIME IN CENTURIES OF CLIMATIC HISTORY a weather station records its highest ever temperature on a WINTER NIGHT. Impossible as it might sounds it happened: 33.4C [92.1F] Iquique AP, CHILE just before midnight on 12 August.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2088028532848951376
“El Niño may peak at the worst time for the Amazon – and it should worry us all…
“…the end of the dry season between October and December is when rivers are at their lowest and undergrowth is most likely to be tinder dry. This will be a period of extreme vulnerability for the forest, which plays a globally important role in stabilising the climate and irrigating crops.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/14/el-nino-predicted-peak-amazon-rainforest-climate
“CARIBBEAN RECORD HEAT:
“Record heat again in the US VIRGIN ISLANDS – 96/35.6C St Thomas Airport ties the HIGHEST AUGUST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE USVI.
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2088388806491689122
“Mexico is scrambling to contain a record surge of foul-smelling sargassum along its Caribbean coast, as the brown seaweed swamps beaches in the heart of the country’s tourism belt.
“Officials in Quintana Roo, home to resort destinations including Cancun, Playa del Carmen and Tulum, have cleared more than 105,000 metric tons of sargassum so far this year…”
“Astonishing 1000-YR rain in the MOHAVE DESERT this evening – 9” in 3 hours SE of Las Vegas & Henderson Nevada, near Nelson.
“Actually best the criteria by 2.5X! …this is a new climate, with new rules, more moisture, and more frequent extreme rain events.” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2088454641365221761
“Video shows massive flooding, submerged vehicles in Hurricane neighborhood [Utah].
” An intense flash flood hit a Hurricane neighborhood. The worst of the flooding was reported near 198 South 850 West. A video shared with KUTV 2News by Zion Realty Media shows cars nearly fully submerged in muddy water.”
“Why has there been so much flooding in the United States lately? One key factor: Mountains of moisture in the Pacific!
“Big precipitable water anomalies have extended from an El Niño-scorched Pacific into the U.S., giving storms a deeper reservoir of water vapor to tap into.” [Ben Noll]
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2088279476581138824
“Glacial lake flood hits Juneau, Alaska, again, reflecting a growing global risk as mountain glaciers melt.
“In the summers of 2023 and 2024, meltwater filled Suicide Basin, overflowed and escaped through tunnels in the ice, sending surges of water downstream that flooded neighborhoods along the river. In August 2025, the surge of water from Suicide Basin reached record levels at Mendenhall Lake…”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/glacial-lake-flood-hits-juneau-122755196.html
“New Film Series Shows How Seabirds Can Reveal Changes in Arctic Ecosystems…
“Many Arctic seabird populations are declining at an alarming rate due to climate change, shifting food webs, new diseases, pollution, and pressure from various industries. Since seabirds transport nutrients from sea to land, these declines can have consequences extending far beyond the bird populations themselves…”
“Global sea ice cover has taken a nose dive this week, mostly due to a sudden drop in Antarctic sea ice extent. Though, both poles are well below the long-term average.
“More visuals of global sea ice
[at link below; Zack Labe].”
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3mt3eihrc222d
“Fossils show huge carbon emissions harm forests, not ‘green the planet’…
“The authors of the new paper found this prehistoric change caused a retreat in the forests that blanketed the Paleocene-Eocene world, causing them to die off as the Earth browned rather than greened, a finding they state has “chilling implications” for today’s world.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/13/forests-carbon-dioxide-emissions
“Moody’s Says Heat, Water Scarcity Driving Stranded-Asset Risks.
“Extreme heat and unreliable water supplies are threatening asset valuations across a growing number of sectors as everything from labor productivity to energy costs gets impacted, according to an analysis by Moody’s.”
“Insurers attract billions from investors to spread climate risk.
“Insurers are actively attracting billions of dollars from institutional investors through catastrophe (cat) bonds [essentially a bet on disasters not happening] and insurance-linked securities (ILS) to spread the escalating financial risks of climate change.”
https://www.ftm.eu/articles/insurers-attract-billions-from-investors-to-spread-climate-risk
“Could COP31 be the end of negotiations?
“No blockbuster deal is on the table at COP31. Instead, negotiators are grappling with climate finance, implementation, and an uncomfortable question: What is COP for now?“
https://www.devex.com/news/could-cop31-be-the-end-of-negotiations-112866
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
“The Mediterranean Sea, historically a cradle of civilizations and a regulatory element of Southern Europe’s climate, is undergoing an unprecedented transformation. This August, water temperatures reached unheard-of figures…”
I assume this is at least partially caused by those shipping fuel regulations. Yet another example of selective reforms (more often than not at others’ expense) backfiring in ways that decision makers claim they could never have expected. A lot of different interests converged on this decision, from engine manufacturers and ports to owners and charterers to regulators and financial orgs… a lot of new investment needed to happen for this transition. All for the greater good, no doubt!
Jupiviv, I’m sure the shipping fuel regulations are playing a part in the warming, but it’s hard to know how much and it’s too soon for peer-reviewed studies.
The Med will be an excellent test case, though, as it has a lot of shipping relative to its size, so we should see a strong signal.
COP is crap.
These headlines are relentless.
I can’t disagree with you on either, Truth Wizard.
When Greta Thunberg’s house burns down from a wildfire or is trashed by sudden flooding, humanity won’t be moved.
If Greta dies from heat stroke, or starvation, or a new viral infectious disease, again humanity won’t be moved.
If the massive deaths of all lifeforms keeps occurring, again & again repeatedly, humanity won’t be moved.
Author Haruki Murakami quote:
“Everyone, deep in their hearts, is waiting for the end of the world to come.”
Quote taken from his massive 2009 novel 1Q84.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Waiting!? Everyone, greed having corroded their hearts, is actively bringing about the end of the world, making way for the world to come.
Rob, excellent reply!!!
Bob, the conceptual mind can certainly latch on to the idea of everything collapsing as a kind of liberation from all the tiresome bs that life throws one’s way.
El Niño, 1789 and the Price of Bread
The American meteorologist Eric Webb draws an interesting historical comparison. The development of warm water in the Pacific reminds him of the very powerful El Niño of 1877–1878, and even of the so-called “Great El Niño” of 1789–1793.
That latter comparison is particularly interesting. In 1789, there were no satellites, ocean buoys or reliable temperature measurements of the Pacific.
Climate researchers therefore have to rely on tree rings, corals, ships’ logs, rainfall measurements, harvest records and administrative reports. Together, these sources paint a picture of exceptional climatic turmoil around 1790, probably associated with strong El Niño activity.
And 1789 happens to be a year of the French Revolution.
France suffered a poor grain harvest in 1788. An exceptionally severe hailstorm caused extensive damage in July, followed by the extremely harsh winter of 1788–1789. Rivers froze, transport became difficult, and food and fuel grew expensive. In Paris, the price of bread rose sharply.
This did not cause the French Revolution. France was already facing a severe financial and political crisis, while its tax system was creaking under the strain. But when ordinary people have to spend a large part of their income on bread, a poor harvest suddenly acquires political significance.
That is what makes the comparison with this summer interesting. Today, too, we are seeing extreme heat, drought, water shortages and agricultural problems in many places and in France. That does not mean that 2026 will be a repeat of 1789. History is not a weather forecast.
But the same simple chain still exists:
ocean → atmosphere → rainfall and temperature → harvest → food prices → society.
Our economy has become infinitely more complex technologically, but ultimately something still has to grow somewhere before it can end up on a supermarket shelf.
Zip, thank you for bringing this up. In the Tweet I quote from, Eric Webb actually links a very interesting study about the Great El Nino of 1789:
https://scispace.com/pdf/the-great-el-nino-of-1789-93-and-its-global-consequences-3m3qd7unpn.pdf
Ours is likewise occurring against a backdrop of financial and political crisis, of course, although this time on a global scale. Diesel and fertilizer prices are elevated; European harvests poor due to drought; Russian and Ukrainian grain exports partially stymied by war. And our current El Nino just keeps looking more ominous:
“A record-breaking westerly wind burst is ongoing in the Pacific, and a potential outbreak of tropical cyclones later this month could contribute to another one. It’s possible that El Niño strength forecasts may once again adjust upward following these developments.”
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2088619217629421884
Pan, great links, thank you.
Pan, that PDF about El Nino 1789-93 is absolutely riveting! It encompasses the French Revolution, the Mutiny on the Bounty, and the Yellow Fever epidemic in Philadelphia. Wild! Thanks for posting!
I can almost hear the click-clacking of Madame Lafarge’s knitting needles.
As ocean stratification causes the ocean’s heat uptake efficiency to drop then that rejected energy is forced to stay in the air. Because the atmosphere is so thin and responsive, that fraction of a percent is enough to trigger massive, non-linear jumps in global air temperatures.
Survivalist,
your clear description reads like really bad news ahead. Yikes!
About 91% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases goes into the ocean. In contrast, only a tiny fraction—roughly 1% to 3%—remains in the atmosphere, while the remainder goes into melting ice and warming the land.
If only a small % of that 90% going into the ocean is rejected, due to decreased ocean heat uptake, and it goes into the atmosphere instead, then it will cause global air temperatures to spike rapidly, triggering accelerated warming.
I’d add that there is no historic precedent for this because we are now warming orders of magnitude faster than previous events. Faster melting puts fresh water lenses on the ocean surface at the poles, and faster surface warming puts low density, warm water over heavier water at depth everywhere. However the transport processes that can mix and disperse the surface ocean layers are rate limited by water properties. Hence the stratification is worse and the reinforcing feedbacks are faster. Models are still too fine temporally and in the grid scale vertically and horizontally too catch all the mechanisms (assuming they are even known given some of the small scale turbulence effects) and there is not enough reliable data to set up all the initial conditions. So what is happening cannot be predicted with much certainty.
Gentlemen, this reads like the thread from Hell!
And gentlewomen. ☺️
*thumbs up*
And those betwixt
I started reading C&E about three years ago and with increasing frequency until I started commenting around two years ago. The numbers of links has, I think, about doubled since then and would probably be more but Mr. P seems to limit them to around 50 for economic days and high fifties for climate.
Two years ago the 23/24 temperature jump was showing that climate change was worse than expected and accelerating, and the models were far too conservative. The earth energy imbalance was getting noticed, was very large and growing, through mechanisms that were not being understood (and still aren’t) and would only be reduced by a huge increase in Plank feedback, requiring a huge increase in surface temperature. This fitted in with the Hansen prediction of earth sensitivity of over 4.5 degrees – and given that the NOAA equivalent CO2 is already just about double this rise would be reached without requiring any more emissions, and will inevitably lead to a hot house with all the feedbacks and tipping points that have been, or are close to being, tripped.
Oil and gas discoveries, followed by greenfield development projects were fading towards zero. Natural field decline rates were rising above 5%. The IOCs and, increasingly, independents maintained high dividends and buybacks. This has almost always presented as a choice (sometimes introducing peak demand because of energy substitution or efficiency depending on a reporters political leaning). In fact it is almost wholly a result of geology and rapidly falling EROI in remaining hydrocarbon resources.
Several lucid and cogent books and papers were being issued arguing that the supposed energy transition to “renewables” wasn’t just slow, it wasn’t happening at all and, because of hard thermodynamic limits, could never happen in the way hoped and prayed for by the techno-optimists.
Pax America was dead, the world was splitting into multi-polar factions, defence spending was rising, and growing number of states were getting increasingly fragile and nearing failure.
And in those last two years everything has got way worse. At this rate I’m not convinced there will be a functioning internet in another two years. The only thing that hasn’t happened is a sudden, major impact on food supplies because of biodiversity loss, but it is certainly coming and may be so devastating that any survivors will be too concerned with trying to get through to the next meal to rally be able to analyse what has occurred.
One of the scariest recent findings has been the five fold increase in drought and flood intensity since 2020. I think this must be to do with break down of the jet stream and the impact looks to be still getting steadily worse.
I don’t pretend to understand the financial markets but I don’t think there can be so many divergent opinions on one subject if one of them has even a reasonable chance of being correct so I’d guess they are all miles off. However when the bubbles do pop their effect will be as a huge magnifier to the disruptions from the physical world.
So anyway thank you Panopticon for all your efforts and for offering this place as a forum for my grammatically challenged ramblings.
I find your “ramblings” (NOT!) very educational and helpful, George! Like everyone here, I live surrounded by a wilderness of denial, so thank you and keep them coming when so inspired.
And I second your thanks to Panopticon for all his work as well as his encyclopedic knowledge of the issues. And a kind heart!
George (and Cassandra), you are welcome and thank you for the fine comment.
I am necessarily a jack of all trades and master of none, so I love that the site attracts commenters with expertise I lack and perspectives I wouldn’t otherwise have considered.
I do tend to tap out around the 50/55 story limit due to time constraints. Also, I can imagine it reaches a point where readers’ eyes start to glaze over a bit. 😂
I think one of the challenges with this El Nino will be deciding which stories belong in the economics thread and which in the climate one, as there’ll be so much devilish interplay between the two.
Cheers George, always a pleasure. A new yearly high global surface temperature for 2026 was just posted by ECMWF, nearly two weeks past the typical peak date. And we’re not too far off from the all-time highest sea surface temperature recorded in Niño 3.4. The previous record was set in a November, and this El Niño still has a lot of time left.
Low certainty equals high risk. Low-certainty situations shift fast. A small surprise can break a weak plan.
As we head further into Overshoot & Collapse, let us see how much money the big CO2 emitters, the wealthy countries, have ponied up (as promised at COP 28) to help the poor countries adapt to CC.
Trump, who is deeply religious, full of empathy & compassion for the down-trodden, and lives such a frugal lifestyle that even a Confucian monk is embarrassed to compare his expenditures to the Orange Squash.
The USA has pledged $17.5 million. That is less than the cost of one M1 Abrams battle tank or a few golfing trips from D.C. to Mar-a-Largo.
From Google:
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The compensation fund operationalized at COP28—officially known as the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD)—raised roughly $700 million to $770 million USD in initial pledges during the summit. Ongoing commitments brought the total tracker amount up to $768.4 million USD pledged by 27 nations. [1, 2, 3]
Despite being hailed as a historic milestone for climate justice, economists and human rights groups emphasize that this amount is heavily criticized for falling short, as it covers less than 0.2% of the estimated $400 billion in climate-related losses developing nations face ANNUALLY.
Breakdown of Key National Pledges
The largest financial contributions committed to kickstart the fund include:
European Union (Total): ~$245 million USD
Germany: $100 million USD
United Arab Emirates (Host): $100 million USD
Italy: $108 million USD
France: $108 million USD
United Kingdom: ~$75 million USD (£60 million)
United States: $17.5 million USD
Canada: $16 million USD (seed contribution)
Japan: $10 million USD [, 2, 3, 4, 5]
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Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
A single modern M1 Abrams main battle tank (such as the M1A2 SEPv3 variant) costs roughly $10 million to $15 million in direct domestic production or upgrade value, while total international sales packages often range from $19 million to over $47 million per vehicle depending on bundled gear, training, and ammunition.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/taxpayers-tab-donald-trump-golf-130759409.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABktObiX0UY3ymHGN_UGVvyupYarKVcQPpnBXliGIHey_2UD0jN7LD-8Nt-lrYZ8znRyVBVygNlBVAuS0BP1pnFduzp-1UQMUPD_Fjxsoy8e4QjRBifWbf1PBABFfTZhT_fhH_5U_yLH10NjCfpBF9OQGpi4syLyq7eQOVSBhiU1
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s golf habit has now cost taxpayers at least $101.2 million in travel and security expenses since his return to office, a figure that is two-thirds of his first-term golf total and has him on track to spend $300 million by the end of his second term, according to a HuffPost analysis.
I don’t support Trump or his stupid golfing but I prefer not to read about such things on C & E. Please consider posting this type of comment on political blogs. 🙏
I found Bob’s comments valuable as he was contrasting the US pledge to help some countries mitigate cllimate change with what the US spends in other ways.
Yes, that part was interesting. The golf commentary not so much.
A cards is coming down faster than many think. There are so many things that are already falling apart and can’t be maintained anymore. Infrastructure is a mess. Collapse will just become more of a house of cards. The extreme heat will destroy more infrastructure and the drought is already extremely bad. The government officials are downplaying already the collapse now its just a matter of time before all hell breaks loose.
Most people will experience collapse as the content they consume on social media, then one day they find themselves recording and uploading their own content. Eventually they wash down the river or get close to starving out themselves, and they notice someone recording them.
I suspect you have already covered this – but I only heard about it through watching James O’Brien. So I am slipping it in here. https://www.youtube.com/@nebriefing
Apparently there is pressure to show it on TV, to raise awareness – but …
I was amazed to have a neighbour talking about taking cruise holidays for the next few years, I cannot see beyond next year 🙁
Rockyrex ( https://rockyrexscience.blogspot.com/2024/07/heres-statement-from-uk-scientist-made.html ) was saying that if/when the AMOC collapses it will be about 3 years before I am living in an ice cube – is that right?
He writes on Facebook – not updated his blog for a long time.
Anyway, thanks for keeping us up to date.
Thanks, Mad Hatter. I was vaguely aware of this:
“The film, hosted by the TV presenter and environmentalist Chris Packham, calls on the government to stage a prime-time, televised emergency briefing on the climate and nature crisis.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/10/mps-government-televised-emergency-briefing-climate-emergency
AMOC collapse would mean a colder UK, especially during winter, within a few years… but it would also dramatically change atmospheric circulation worldwide with such disastrous repercussions that it’s just one of several possible flavours of global socio-economic collapse, so there’s probably not much point worrying about it.
Ah, right. Thanks for response Pan.
I have watched the 1st 4 bits of the National Emergency Briefing – not sure about it being shown nationally. Whilst some people cannot access their pre frontal cortex to think about it, I – think it would just add to people’s hysteria.
I sleep well at night knowing that my comments about everything will solve everyone’s problems. I’m often overwhelmed by my brilliance. 😉
Pan does do an excellent, unparalleled job; but ya know, you all make this site the only place on line where I actually look forward to the comments section… really. And not just because I feel my own input is read, altho our host has a lot to do with that as well by taking the time, of which I’m sure he has plenty 😂, to respond to us.
We are indeed fortunate to have found each other, however ephemeral that connection may be.
Bless your cotton socks, Rob. 💚