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“It’s not just El Nino and the tropical Pacific – sea surface temperatures globally are at record warm levels…
“…as you can see by this global SST anomaly map, with a few exceptions anomalous warmth is pretty much everywhere. A particularly warm “blob” continues over the northern Pacific where SSTs are as much as 5-6C above normal.”
https://balancedweather.substack.com/p/its-not-just-el-nino-and-the-tropical
“The latest Nino 3.4 data.
“Yesterday’s Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature set the 60th consecutive daily record high for the Nino 3.4 region, and was 0.83°C higher than the previous record for July 28th, which came at the start of the 1997/98 El Nino.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2082499466821771477
“Please don’t tell me that they’re going to extend the Y-axis again.
“Some models [specifically the CFS] are now threatening 5.6 °C in the Niño 3 region, while in the Niño 3.4 region maxing out at 4.9C.” [David Schlotthauer]
https://x.com/Weatherunited1/status/2082542196776132666
“Wales shores fill with sunfish, sea hares and venomous visitors as UK seas hit record heat…
“Ocean sunfish — the world’s second-largest bony fish — have been appearing repeatedly, while other recent sightings include a minke whale off Ceredigion and a grey triggerfish caught near Anglesey. Frankie Hobro, owner and director of Anglesey Sea Zoo, said the sunfish are “amazingly rare” to spot.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/science/articles/wales-shores-fill-sunfish-sea-120700679.html
“Half of England in drought as farmers warn food prices could soar…
“The Environment Agency says seven regions across central, eastern, and southern England are in drought after what is thought to be the driest July on record combined with soaring temperatures.”
“Major incident declared as large wildfire rips through Dunwich Heath.
“A major incident has been declared after a wildfire ripped through a coastal healthland. The fire at Dunwich Heath, near Leiston in Suffolk [near Sizewell nuclear plant], started just after 5.30pm on Wednesday. Suffolk Fire and Rescue Service said the flames spread quickly in a south-west direction…”
“Britain can’t stop climate change. Scrap net zero and embrace Mediterranean life [opinion piece]…
“….many in Britain would enjoy the kind of warmer climate predicted by modellers, if we (and the authorities) were properly equipped to cope. Millions head to the sun on holiday or to retire. In the era of air conditioning, refrigeration, greenhouses and reverse osmosis, southern regions of the world are blossoming economically and geopolitically…”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2026/07/29/britain-cant-stop-climate-change-scrap-net-zero/
“Climate change is turning parts of Europe into an insurance nightmare…
“Either governments step in to protect citizens from soaring insurance premiums, straining public budgets; or people face being left with no protection at all when their homes are flooded or burn down.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-change-europe-insurance/
“Scorching heat returns to Poland as temperatures soar to 36°C [96.8F]…
“The latest spell of hot weather comes just weeks after an extreme heatwave shattered Poland’s national temperature record. On 28 June, the western town of Słubice reached 40.5°C, surpassing the previous national record of 40.2°C set in Prószków in 1921.”
https://tvpworld.com/94580726/-poland-heatwave-temperatures-to-hit-36c-on-thursday
“Germany: How weather extremes impact local agriculture.
“For many German farmers, the heat wave in late June couldn’t have come at a worse time. While barley was already ready for harvest across much of Germany, the drought struck other crops during a particularly vulnerable stage of development.”
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-how-weather-extremes-impact-local-agriculture/a-78149292
“Danube River falls to record low in Budapest, snarling Europe’s freight artery.
“The record low was measured at 31 centimeters on Tuesday morning and later dropped to 26 centimeters at one of the stations on the Danube on Wednesday morning… The reading broke the previous record low of 33 centimeters, set in 2018.”
https://tvpworld.com/94586157/danube-water-level-hits-record-low-in-budapest
“Swiss temperatures break more heat records.
“Temperature records were broken in several places across Switzerland on Wednesday. In Engelberg in canton Obwalden, the temperature reached 29.1 degrees, exceeding the highest temperature ever recorded on July 29 by more than two degrees.”
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN FRANCE 43 [109.4F] DEGREES – DOZENS OF RECORDS PULVERIZED.
“Once again, European climatic history is being rewritten. 95 Monthly records just today, just in France, eight of which are all time records (red ones; see list by Meteociel below).” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2082502418168676394
“‘The breath just went out of us’: people return to their homes after wildfires near Madrid.
“Residents struggle to take in the devastation five days after El Morro was evacuated as fires burned across countryside west of Spanish capital… “What we saw when we got here was just Dantesque,” said Herraiz, 68. “It’s such a beautiful place but all of a sudden, it had come to look like hell.””
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/29/people-return-to-their-home-in-spain-after-wildfires
“Three firefighters killed on Crete and in mainland Greece as Europe battles wildfires…
“The arc of brutal fires, which runs from the Atlantic coast to the eastern Mediterranean, and from the Scottish Highlands to the south of Spain, has alarmed experts because many of the fires have been out of control and burning close to towns and cities.”
“Forest fire in Türkiye’s Mugla forces evacuations, clears hospital units…
“Under the coordination of the Mugla Governor’s Office, 373 personnel have been deployed to bring the fire under control. The operation includes five aircraft, 12 helicopters, 35 fire engines, eight first-response vehicles, 22 water tankers, 14 construction vehicles, 44 service vehicles and two ambulances.”
“The Mediterranean’s warming waters are drawing hundreds of invasive species…
““The Mediterranean of our grandfathers, of our elders, and of the Greeks, of ancient Greece is lost forever. So many of those changes are irreversible,” said Ernesto Azzuro, a marine biologist with the Italian National Research Council’s Institute for Marine Biological Resources and Biotechnology.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/mediterranean-rome-greece-greeks-italian-b3024259.html
“HISTORIC HEAT IN NORTH AFRICA – another day near 50C [122F] in ALGERIA!
“In addition, yesterday Remada had an extremely hot night with a Minimum of 36.9C which is HOTTEST NIGHT EVER RECORDED IN TUNISIA.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2082180074569126303
“Climate-related crop losses top R1bn as extreme weather pressures South Africa’s farmers.
“The insurer Santam said farmers are increasingly contending with a combination of destructive weather events, including hail, strong winds, heavy rainfall, flooding and unseasonal conditions, making climate risk a constant operational challenge rather than a seasonal concern.”
“Uganda begins emergency food handouts after 19 die from hunger…
“A crisis has been building in the Karamoja region of Uganda as crops have failed without the season’s expected rains, leaving the region’s 1.5 million people facing acute food shortages and rising malnutrition.”
“Kenya investigating unexpected deaths of 15 elephants in national park…
“Kenya has previously recorded incidents of elephants being poisoned as a result of poaching and human-wildlife conflict. Preliminary tests on samples collected from the elephants by a laboratory at the University of Nairobi detected a “potential toxic substance…””
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/29/elephant-deaths-kenya-amboseli-national-park
“The city of Rabak in White Nile State experienced heavy rains last night, causing several areas to be submerged in water.
“Circulating videos also showed a number of vehicles being flooded amid a heavy flow of rainwater. No official report has been issued yet regarding the extent of the damage or any human casualties.” [Arab Storms]
https://x.com/Arab_Storms/status/2082558745402630367
“El Niño-linked extreme weather deepens Tigray crisis as hailstorm kills child, displaces more than 10,000 people.
“A devastating hailstorm and heavy rain in Tigray Region’s Central Zone have killed a child, destroyed crops, killed livestock and displaced more than 10,000 people, adding to a humanitarian crisis already worsened by El Niño-induced climate shocks, conflict impacts and prolonged food insecurity.”
“Yemen’s valleys and farms are full of dangerous plastic waste…
““By God, this is a very serious problem,” said Yousef Abdullah, a 65‑year‑old farmer and orchard owner, speaking angrily to Al Jazeera. “If it remains unresolved, it will cause a disaster.” Yousef stood beneath the shade of date palms, surrounded by a blanket of plastic bags, bottles, and food wrappers.”
“‘The heat took him from me’: India’s death toll rises amid escalating heat crisis…
““The heat was terrible and that makes the work very difficult,” said Purilla. “When you drink water, you just sweat it out immediately. Sometimes we got dizzy – but what choice do we have?” It did not take long for the women to run out of drinking water.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/29/extreme-heat-deaths-india-climate-crisis-environment
“Pune shatters 119-year July rainfall record as monsoon refuses to relent [southern central India].
“With the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting more rain in Pune and its suburbs till the end of the month, Shivajinagar is set to extend its record-breaking July. According to the IMD, the weather station had recorded 508.9 mm of rainfall…”
“Death toll from floods in India’s Assam state rises to 78.
“8 remain missing, over 1M affected in floods, say officials… The State Disaster Management Authority said it “continues” to monitor the flood situation across Assam. “Relief and rescue operations remain underway to support affected communities,” the authority said…”
“EXTRAORDINARY – 30C [86F] MINIMUM AT 1000m asl again IN MONGOLIA.
“In 150 years only ONCE Mongolia had 30C minimum, now it had it EVERY DAY OF THE PAST WEEK including WORLD RECORDS by latitude/altitude. MORE HIGH MINIMUMS RECORDS PULVERIZED – min 29.4 Sainshand and 27.5 Bayandelger.” [Extreme Temps
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2082432098044977562
“Heatwave in Northeast China is becoming even more extreme at night!
“Today, 13 stations broke or tied July hottest Tmin records, with 8 of them broke all-time records! More record-breaking night-time temp are expected in Northeast China over the next three days!” [Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/2082455445307002988
“Never ending record heat in JAPAN:
“Last records of HIghest Minimums for July and/or all time: Next days North and South Korea and Japan can all record unprecedented temperatures of 40/42C threatening their national records. Heat indexes will be hazardous, potentially deadly.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2082607722885738944
“Japan coral protectors race to save reefs from heat ‘bomb’…
“With the world’s oceans the hottest on record in June, and a major El Nino predicted this year, experts fear that 2026 could be even worse for the colonies of polyps and the rich variety of marine life that calls them home. On land, Japan is experiencing a severe heatwave with thousands of people needing hospital treatment over a week.”
“Korea Shatters July Heat Record: Yangsan Crosses 40°C, Busan Snaps 122-Year High…
“…the first time the country’s official weather measurement network has recorded above 40°C in the month of July since national records began.”
“Korea has logged a record number of tropical nights so far this summer as an unrelenting heat wave continues to grip the nation, the state weather agency said Tuesday.
“The nationwide average number of tropical nights reached 7.8 between June 1 and Monday, marking the highest figure for the period…”
“Super Typhoon Dolphin Intensifies As East Asia Watches…
“Forecasts from both the KMA and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) agree: Dolphin is on track to become a super typhoon, with some models predicting wind speeds could soar as high as 305 kilometers per hour [190mph] by July 31, 2026.”
https://evrimagaci.org/gpt/super-typhoon-dolphin-intensifies-as-east-asia-watches-543321
“Record warm seas power three storms at once in the Pacific Ocean.
“Three tropical systems were churning across the Pacific Ocean early Tuesday, fueled by exceptionally warm ocean waters linked to an already record-breaking El Niño and a huge marine heat wave… Fausto, Genevieve and Dolphin…”
“This Year’s El Niño Could Spell Disaster for American Fishermen.
“Warming waters will severely disrupt food chains, leaving West Coast crews unable to catch commercial stocks, warn ocean advocates… “It’s rare that we have a heads up that we’ll get hit by a natural disaster like this, so we should be preparing. Fishermen are going to be hit hard,” said Rogers…”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28072026/el-nino-could-impact-pacific-fishing/
“New movement has been detected in a landslide on New Zealand’s North Island that killed six people at the start of this year.
“Tauranga City said monitoring had showed a “significant regression” above Mount Maunganui Beachside Holiday Park… A massive landslide in this spot claimed six lives on 22 January after almost 300mm [12 inches] of rain fell in the area in just two days.”
“Antarctica storms becoming more frequent and intense…
“They found winter storms in the southwestern Ross Sea have become more frequent and intense over this period, as well as more variable – a succession of very stormy winters were interspersed every couple of years with unusually calm ones.”
https://www.nationaltribune.com.au/antarctica-storms-becoming-more-frequent-and-intense/
“Tornado in the Ñuble region leaves homes and agricultural fields destroyed [Chile].
“From Senapred de Ñuble they confirmed that at least three tornadic clouds were recorded due to the frontal system that is registered in the area and that has included strong winds.”
“Tornado in Rio Grande do Sul [Brazil]: see images of the destruction caused by the phenomenon…
“The tornado that hit three cities in the Northwest of Rio Grande do Sul in the early evening of Tuesday (28) caused damage in the municipalities of Giruá, Sete de Setembro and Senador Salgado Filho.”
“Another record hot day in SOUTH AMERICA:
“A freezing Patagonia with -20C contrasts with +39C [102.2F] in BRAZIL. JULY RECORDS (There are dozens): 38.0 Rondonopolis, 37.6 Querencia, 37.2 Goias, 36.6 Porto Murtinho… 38C again also in PARAGUAY… Hotter next days.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2082221163690836293
“RECORD HEAT AGAIN IN COSTA RICA:
“38.1C [11.6F] yesterday In Liberia is COSTA RICA HOTTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD. After breaking the June record and after breaking the January, February, March, April, May, June and July records of High Minimums multiple times each month.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2082598839727411262
“How a seaweed bloom is affecting tourism in Mexico.
“In Mexico, a record surge of brown, smelly seaweed known as sargassum has blanketed the idyllic coastline leading to a sharp drop in tourism. Workers are seen lining many beaches shovelling heaps of seaweed off the shoreline.”
“Caribbean bears brunt of £43bn climate-fuelled damage to developing islands…
“The figure is more than 90% of the total $57bn in economic damage caused by floods, storms and drought across 39 developing island nations in the Caribbean, the Pacific, the Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, according to a study by development thinktank ODI Global.”
“The average overnight low across the contiguous U.S. is on pace to shatter the all-time July record by ~1°F. With records dating to 1895, that’s a very significant margin.
“July 2026 hasn’t just been hot during the day. The atmosphere simply hasn’t cooled at night. That’s a major reason this month is challenging 1936 as one of the hottest in U.S. history.” [The Global Warmer]
https://x.com/TheGlobalWarmer/status/2082574777190166696
“What’s causing Utah’s record-hot low temperatures?
“…You read that right. On Monday, the National Weather Service reported that the temperature was a whopping 86 degrees at 6 a.m. at the weather station at Salt Lake City International Airport. That would have been the highest low in recorded SLC history before it dipped that night to “just” 82 degrees at 10:30 p.m. — tying the all-time record.”
https://www.sltrib.com/news/2026/07/29/utah-weather-how-hot-has-this/
“Part of Albany, New York surpassed its 1-in-1000 year threshold by almost 2”! And almost doubled the highest 24-hour rainfall of 5.60”.
“A reminder, this does not mean it only happens once every 1000 years. It means there’s a less than .1% chance it happens in any given year.” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2082629569815667018
“Oregon is on track for its worst wildfire season yet.
“Thirty four major fires are burning largely on public range lands from near Bend, east of the Cascade Mountains to the Idaho state line. Dense smoke is blanketing the region and air quality advisories are in effect in the Boise, Idaho-metropolitan area, which is home to more than 700,000 people.”
https://www.npr.org/2026/07/29/nx-s1-5910624/oregon-is-on-track-for-its-worst-wildfire-season-yet
“July is already Ottawa’s rainiest month ever recorded…
“Largely thanks to two “walloping storms” bookending this month, this July will officially mark the rainiest month Ottawa has experienced in more than 150 years of weather data collection, according to retired climatologist David Phillips.”
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/july-ottawas-rainiest-month-ever-185740119.html
“Ontario’s worst wildfire season fuels calls for national agency to tackle threat…
“As more than 900 wildfires burn across Canada, prompting evacuation orders and pushing Ontario into its worst wildfire season on record, officials are renewing calls for the country to develop a national wildfire strategy through the creation of a federal agency.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/29/canada-wildfire-emergency-agency
“EXTRAORDINARY ARCTIC HEAT 36C [96.8F].
“Hundreds of records pulverized all over Russia. We are witnessing an event which is completely rewriting world climatic history. MUCH WORSE next days with nearly 40C in Upper Siberia: hundreds of records will be smashed with absurd margins.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2082165639934853627
“How to deal with ‘doomism’ when it feels like the world is ending…
“…she is trying to remain hopeful. “I always come back to the same conclusion – if the people who care most about the future decide not to have children because they’re afraid, we risk losing a generation of people who are deeply invested in creating a better world.””
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/climate-anxiety-wildfires-mental-health-b3023065.html
“Climate anxiety was consuming me. Then I learned to laugh about it…
“In the past few years, the UK’s National Health Service has even begun to offer standup classes as a mental health intervention as part of its expanding “social prescribing” program, in which patients are referred by healthcare providers to non-clinical services and activities…”
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/ng-interactive/2026/jul/28/climate-comedy-standup-class
“Barclays has highlighted “opportunities” to profit from a devastating food crisis [courtesy of El Nino] that could leave more than 100 million people hungry…
“Writing to clients earlier this month, however, Barclays urged them to look on the bright side and see the coming catastrophe as a potential money-maker.”
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“Half of England in drought as farmers warn food prices could soar…”
I doubt it because the UK like a lot of EU nations imports the majority of its food, and THAT is what’s scary. They are technically mostly self-sufficient in animal products (except the UK which imports around 40% of meat and milk products)… but they import the vast majority of animal feed as well: the UK’s soyabean imports are 105% of domestic supply for example.
Anyway, of course none of this will scare the average person right now because, right now, it doesn’t matter. When it starts to matter no one will be writing articles about potentially skyrocketing inflation because the economic framework in which inflation is measured would no longer exist.
On Paper, Germany is food self sufficient, but those calories are from grains…the animal feed is imported from china and the pigs are then sold back to china, idiocy. Fruits and greens are nearly all imported, so if shtf, germans can eat bread and some potatoes ( but not much).
We are the third largest agricultural importer with roughly 145 billion, but export around 60-90 billion.
Most imports come from europe, but the hell, why are there argentinian and egyptian potatoes at Aldi in Potatoe-land ?
A lot of those imports are re-exports eg Netherlands. On paper a disproportionate agri exporter in the world widely regarded as a success story, but a lot of those exports are re-exports. My source by the way is the FAO’s food balance and supply utilization accounts which for some reason haven’t been updated since 2023.
https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FBS
https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/SCL
Figures for 2023 for the Netherlands in the aggregated (including processed and raw products) category “Fruits – excluding wine”:
Imports – 11.4 mt
Exports – 8.7 mt
Production – 683k t
Domestic supply – 3.2 mt
Processing – 118k t
Food use – 2.9 mt
Vegetables:
Imports – 4.5 mt
Exports – 6.8 mt
Production – 4.8 mt
Domestic supply – 2.5 mt
Processing – 218k t
Food use – 2.3 mt
Self-sufficient in domestic vegetable production but after subtracting domestic supply only about 35% of exports.
“When it starts to matter no one will be writing articles about potentially skyrocketing inflation because the economic framework in which inflation is measured would no longer exist.”
This is about where I get to, Jupiviv. A worsening cost of living crisis and ad hoc shortages courtesy of extreme weather are one thing. The sort of supply shocks and panic-driven protectionism that would crash European food imports are quite another, and not compatible with a functioning financial system.
The independent, second last article :
” if the people who care most about the future decide not to have children because they’re afraid, we risk losing a generation of people who are deeply invested in creating a better world”
I´m out of words . . .we must have kids so they can suffer and clean up our shit ???
SERIOUSLY ?????
SHTF right now, how do these people think that the kids with zero future, zero economic stability, zero housing and zero food are going to change the world, when we , who mostly had it all for a short time, didn´t manage to leave them a better world?
I can´t with those people,” the banality of evil” ( Hannah Ahrendt).
Of course I agree with you, my fellow doomer. While we can’t expect MSM to ever tell the truth about our trajectory, nonetheless it rarely fails to leave us shaking our heads. One of my clients welcomed his third child into the world six weeks ago. Another is getting married this fall and he and his fiancee plan to start trying for a baby right away. Yesterday I passed a guy pushing his twin babies in a stroller. All of this cuts like a knife through my heart. Even though a wise fellow traveler often remarked that humans will keep reproducing until the bitter end.
Bringing a child into today’s world is like carrying dry firewood into a burning house . 😭
Her comment reminded me a bit of Naomi Klein’s rationale for changing her mind about having a child:
“The only other thing I’d say is that realizing that I did want to have a kid, and that I wasn’t having a kid because of the mess that had been made of this world… I guess what I want to say is, I don’t want to give them [the carbon-industrial complex] that power. I’d rather fight like hell than to give these evil motherfuckers the power to extinguish the desire to create life.”
https://tsd.naomiklein.org/articles/2012/12/interview-naomi-klein-motherhood-climate-justice-and-failures-environmental-movemen.html
Both viewpoints rest on the belief that if only the right, morally virtuous people were in charge then our rapacious orgy of consumption could be transformed into something sustainable.
https://t.me/me_observer_TG/1058032. This was before the red sea problems. Ai says Kuwait is down almost 9% but doesn’t give a time frame.
Urals oil was up almost 19% yesterday. Currently higher than WTI. Remember when the clowns put a ceiling of $60/barrel on Russian oil.
Duke, ouch:
“Saudi Arabia’s economy shrank by 4.8 per cent in the second quarter compared with the same period last year, the steepest quarterly decline since the Covid-19 pandemic, as the US-Iran war takes its toll on the Arab world’s largest economy.
“The contraction was driven by a 24.7 per cent decline in the oil sector, which has suffered since the conflict in effect closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.”
https://www.ft.com/content/6620ab3c-c46a-4d96-aede-0fce80a2b588?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Canada has(d) 369 million hectares of forest. In the last four years 9% has burnt, and it will probably end up at around 13% or more by the end of this season. With 3 to 4% loss per year sounds like the taiga southern boundary is moving north fairly quickly, which is going to have a knock on impact on snow cover, permafrost melt and various species’ life cycles and expectancies (and at some point is almost certain to overrun the oil sands areas again).
George when you get a chance can you please explain
With 3 to 4% loss per year sounds like the taiga southern boundary is moving north fairly quickly, which is going to have a knock on impact on snow cover, permafrost melt and various species’ life cycles
Thanks
Climate change will push the boreal forest north anyway but increased wildfires, i.e. the notable acceleration since 2023, means it will move faster. Lack of tree cover changes how snow settles and stays and exposes permafrost to faster melt, and changes the biome and what animals can be supported (e.g. snow cover becomes ice cover which means deer have trouble getting food).
This was from 2015 (I think) but things have been changing since the 2023 El Nino.
https://natural-resources.canada.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/energy/Climate-change/pdf/CCCR-Chapter5-ChangesInSnowIcePermafrostAcrossCanada.pdf
Wildfire charts here:
https://ciffc.net/statistics
George, those fires are consuming a lot of peat and soil, too:
“Most of the carbon released during Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season came from burning soil and peat, rather than trees, according to new research from McMaster University…
“”Canada stewards 20% of the world’s soil organic carbon in its peatlands and soils. Future wildfire risk is not just about losing forests, it’s about releasing these vast stores of carbon that have accumulated underground over millennia into the atmosphere,” says Alemu Gonsamo, associate professor in the School of Earth, Environment & Society.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-07-soil-peat-drove-emissions-canada.html
The El Niño Trade
The climate debate appears to be entering a new phase.
For years, the discussion revolved around cutting greenhouse gas emissions through massive investments in the energy transition, carbon capture and a growing range of climate technologies. There was good money to be made. An entire multi-billion-dollar industry emerged, increasingly detached from economic reality. That phase now seems to have passed its peak.
Attention then shifted to climate adaptation: higher flood defences, more air conditioning, water storage, wildfire prevention and resilient infrastructure. In France, at least, politicians are busy announcing ever larger adaptation programmes, with billions of euros being promised in the run-up to elections. The number of policy papers keeps growing. The results, however, remain less obvious.
Now a third phase is emerging.
The financial world has started talking openly about the “El Niño Trade.”
This is more than a catchy phrase from the trading floor.
Barclays recently outlined how investors could benefit from increasingly extreme weather. Prolonged drought boosts demand for irrigation systems and desalination plants. Heatwaves drive investment in electricity grids and cooling technologies. Crop failures push agricultural commodity prices higher. Even wildfires create new markets for reconstruction companies, infrastructure providers and insurers.
The logic is straightforward. Investors are not looking for a stable world; they are looking for price movements. Wherever scarcity appears, opportunities for profit follow.
That may sound obvious, but it marks a remarkable shift. Climate change is no longer viewed solely as an environmental challenge or a societal risk. It is rapidly becoming an economic sector in its own right.
The financial infrastructure is evolving accordingly. The market for catastrophe bonds—where investors assume part of the insurance risk from natural disasters—is expanding rapidly. Hedge funds are hiring meteorologists and climate specialists to gain an edge in forecasting weather-related market movements. Climate models are no longer just tools for scientists and governments; they are increasingly becoming tools for traders.
This creates a striking paradox.
For ordinary citizens, heatwaves, floods and wildfires mean damaged homes, rising insurance premiums and growing uncertainty. For financial markets, the very same events represent new asset classes and trading opportunities.
The irony therefore extends well beyond the image of enjoying a chilled glass of Sauvignon Blanc on a sunny British terrace. While one commentary celebrates the prospect of Britain embracing a Mediterranean climate, insurers are warning that parts of Europe are becoming increasingly difficult—or even impossible—to insure.
Climate change is no longer simply an environmental crisis to be mitigated or adapted to. It is gradually becoming a market in its own right, where the consequences of a warming planet are transformed into investment strategies, financial products and profit opportunities. The emergence of the “El Niño Trade” may prove to be a far more significant milestone than the phrase itself suggests.
Proof yet again of what an insane sick species we are.
Not that it needs further corroboration, but I have to say that I found it outrageous to see the Trilogy of Terror of the US Furor flanked by the Zionists Zelensky and Netanyahu spouting their venom, calling Iran a terror state while simultaneously Maduro sits rotting in a prison cell on charges of “narco-terrorism”. Outright murderous thugs, leaders of pariah states, yet not one “journalist “ to ask why, exactly, are they not the ones behind bars (the Trilogy of Terror, not the journalists …. English, ain’t it grand?)
Zip, I’m afraid there is nothing the system won’t parasitize to keep going.
https://ludic.mataroa.blog/blog/ai-mania-is-eviscerating-global-decision-making/
Ai mania is eviserating global decision making. Ed zitron had him on his recent podcast.
Heather, I thought it would be an article about geopolitical, rather than corporate, decision making… Of course, its tentacles are deeply embedded in both.
“AI psychosis” is a useful new expression for me. Think we’ll have cause to use that a fair bit in the future. 😂
Will Iran try to shutdown the Suez Canal next?
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/egypt-suffers-first-drone-attack-widening-the-iran-war-5ce2b49e
Yemen has already shut diwn the strait near them so yes it has been shut down by yemen.
“An attack on an Egyptian port near the Suez Canal demonstrated the important waterway’s vulnerability and showed how the widening conflict in the Middle East could further disrupt global trade, analysts said on Thursday.
“Two ships, including a U.S.-owned gas storage tanker, caught fire in the Wednesday attack at the Port of Damietta, which Egypt said on Thursday appeared to have been carried out with a drone.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/30/world/middleeast/egyptian-port-attack-suez-canal-vulnerability.html
“a gas storage tanker” That sounds to me like what the Americans would call a barge and what the Brits would call a lighter.
Spain, like nearly every place else, is already in Overshoot. But a recent court ruling has resulted in thousands invading Spain by swimming a short distance to Cueta, a Spanish enclave with Morocco.
Spain wants to be in Maximum Overshoot!
https://www.the-sun.com/news/16770010/migrants-storm-eu-border-army-plea/
The Guardian article has a title that is false. The 2023 Canadian wildfire season was significantly worse than this 2026 fire season by the end of July. By mid-July 2023, fires had already consumed over 10 million hectares, whereas this 2026 fire season has by now, late July, impacted roughly 2.8 million hectares and ranked far below 2023’s historic intensity….. but it’s Ontario so everybody gives a fuck now.
Survivalist, I noticed that too, hence my taking the liberty of altering it for them.