Huge thanks to Kimpton Bradford for being my June sponsor. At his request, this thread is dedicated to his lifelong hero, Dr. David Suzuki, who recently celebrated his 90th birthday.
“IMF Chief Warns World Isn’t Ready for Shocks That Are Piling Up…
““I am worried that we are not completely internalizing yet that this is how the world is going to be,” Georgieva said on Bloomberg’s podcast Leaders with Francine Lacqua. “We are not going to get to a place where shocks are gone.””
“Nuclear powers increasing deployment of warheads, SIPRI warns.
“Researchers warned on Monday that nuclear-armed states were taking their arms out of storage and putting them on delivery systems, as the weapons of mass destruction are playing an increased role in global politics.”
“Iran war: 100 days on, a costly stalemate.
“One hundred days after US President Trump launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, the conflict has lasted far longer than expected, causing more than 7,000 deaths, mass displacement, and severe economic disruption driven by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and soaring oil prices.”
https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260607-iran-war-100-days
“Israel strikes Iran despite Trump plea as Middle East crisis threatens to escalate…
“It was the first exchange of direct strikes between the two enemies since a ceasefire paused the US-Israel war with Iran in April. Iran’s attack came in response to earlier strikes on Beirut by Israel… The White House did not respond to messages about the strikes and whether they were done in coordination with the US.”
“OPEC+ Approves Another Oil Output Hike for July…
“The group has approved a series of output hikes totaling close to 600,000 barrels daily since April, but this has remained largely on paper as a lot of big producers in the Middle East cannot restore production to pre-war levels due to the continued blockage in the Strait of Hormuz.”
“Oil tanker owners fear market crash after Iran war drove record profits…
“The risk of a sharp downturn has been heightened after owners ploughed some of their profits into orders for new ships, stoking fears of another boom-and-bust cycle that has been a hallmark of the shipping industry for decades.”
https://www.ft.com/content/786f23d9-876d-4c56-a9e8-67ac5b78cd49?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Airlines face $100bn hit on jet fuel from Iran energy shock…
“As a result the industry’s combined net profits are expected to halve from $43bn in 2025 to $23bn this year, with the average margin dropping from 4.2 per cent to 2 per cent, according to the International Air Transport Association.”
https://www.ft.com/content/3be2f94f-1d15-4f0e-9289-06a219b044f6?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Markets face triple threat of Iran war reigniting, AI bubble popping, and Fed rates rising while epic SpaceX IPO could fuel even more chaos…
““We think many of the standalone SpaceX flows might be digestible. The problem is that many of these flows are potentially same-way and additive,” Boutle explained.”
“The helium squeeze is becoming an AI chip supply risk…
“Helium is not just a laboratory gas or a hospital issue. Semiconductor fabs use it for thermal control, wafer processing, leak detection, plasma tools and as a carrier gas in some deposition steps. Its value comes from the same properties that make it hard to replace…”
https://startupfortune.com/the-helium-squeeze-is-becoming-an-ai-chip-supply-risk
“South Korea halts stock trading as KOSPI plunges over 8% amid tech-led selloff.
“South Korea’s stock market was forced to halt trading on Monday after the benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) plunged more than 8 per cent in early trade, as a global technology-led selloff rippled across Asian markets and triggered panic selling in semiconductor shares.”
“Indonesia’s financial markets were jolted Monday (June 8th) as the rupiah hit a new record low of over 18,155 to the US dollar and the main stock index fell 4%.
“Investors are rapidly dumping their rupiah-denominated assets…”
https://asiatimes.com/2026/06/rupiahs-plunge-pushes-indonesias-manufacturers-to-the-edge/
“Inflation threats may finally undo central bank herd mentality.
“Driven by a surge in energy prices linked to geopolitical conflicts (such as the US/Iran tensions), policymakers face a stark choice: aggressively fight inflation or protect stalling growth. This conflict is forcing divergent national responses, signaling an end to uniform global monetary easing.”
“America’s most boring nightmare. Soaring interest rates and entitlements drive debt toward disaster…
“The outsize debt was barely sustainable even with the abnormally low interest rates between the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic. But with 30-year Treasury yields at their highest level in almost two decades, it is not.”
“Government rolls out grocery rebate as recession swirls [Canada].
“The federal government has started rolling out a new grocery and essentials benefits as it manages the ramifications of a technical recession and the looming review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement.”
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.7226884
“Personal loans booming as cost of living drives Australians to borrow record amounts.
“Australians are borrowing record amounts in personal loans as a long-term buildup in living costs wipes out savings buffers. New personal loans issued by banks reached a record $5.1bn in the first three months of 2026, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data.”
“Britain is staring into a £3tn debt abyss.
“Within months, the United Kingdom’s national debt is expected to exceed £3tn for the first time, a threshold that could be crossed as early as September… Changes in market interest rates are blowing up budgets and mere words uttered by politicians can add billions to the nation’s interest bill in a near instant.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/06/07/britain-abyss-national-debt-approaches-3-trillion/
“Entire submarine fleet protecting UK from nuclear attack ‘unfit for use’.
“…all five Astute class submarines which are used to protect submarines carrying Trident missiles have been docked. They are now undergoing repair work… The MoD has repeatedly come under fire recently over security breaches and ships breaking down.”
“UK food bills soar as climate crisis hits overseas farmers and vital imports…
“Experts warn that an 80 per cent likelihood of a warming “El Nino” event this summer could make 2027 the hottest year on record, intensifying the crisis, while UK intelligence officials have previously cautioned that biodiversity loss could trigger global food competition and mass migration.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/food-imports-climatechange-heat-b2991524.html
“German fishery caught in escalating economic squeeze as marine fuel costs threaten to bankrupt fleets…
“Meanwhile, the operation of cold chain storage and logistics is also facing pressure from the higher fuel prices, as seafood has to be delivered to other places in a cold temperature. From equipment to transportation, costs are piling up.”
“European drivers cut back on fuel as energy price shock bites…
“Six European economies recorded double-digit declines in fuel sales in the period, including Germany, Norway and Austria, according to the figures published last week as part of wider retail sales data. The trend is echoed in the UK…”
https://www.ft.com/content/1a5d0e28-26c2-4baa-a932-3efc4de0699d
“Serbia: Police clash with protesters urging early elections.
“Clashes broke out between groups of demonstrators and police as a student-led movement returned to Serbia’s capital Belgrade on Saturday, demanding an end to President Aleksandar Vucic’s 12-year rule. The populist leader has been accused by critics of consolidating power and undermining democratic checks and balances.”
https://www.dw.com/en/serbia-police-clash-with-protesters-urging-early-elections/a-77274618
“EU’s renewed Balkans push reflects deeper security concerns…
“At the EU-Western Balkans Summit held in Montenegro on Friday, the European Union renewed efforts to accelerate the accession of Western Balkan countries, highlighting a growing recognition in Brussels that enlargement is increasingly tied to security considerations amid a changing geopolitical landscape.”
https://english.news.cn/20260607/bdfcaf61fd1441789c84ad769b87ed8d/c.html
“Ukraine Turns to Europe as U.S. Steps Back as Mediator in Peace Talks…
“European leaders have said they do not see themselves replacing Washington as mediators — a prospect Mr. Putin has also dismissed — but rather as additional participants in efforts to end a war whose outcome will shape Europe’s security for decades to come.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/07/world/europe/ukraine-europe-russia-us-peace-talks.html
“Pro-EU ruling party in Armenia claims victory in parliamentary election.
“Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Monday that his pro-EU Civil Contract party had won a “historic victory” in the country’s parliamentary elections. Pashinyan claimed at a press conference that Civil Contract had prevailed…”
https://www.politico.eu/article/armenia-parliament-election-exit-polls-nikol-pashinyan/
“Russia’s Tyumen Oil Refinery Ablaze After Process Disruption…
“Authorities denied reports that the fire at the facility, about 1,700 kilometers (1,050 miles) east of Moscow, was caused by a drone attack… The refinery is a significant supplier of gasoline, diesel fuel and other petroleum products to western Siberia and the Urals region…”
“Chinese troops showcase unmanned systems in joint drills with Mongolia.
” In a live-fire exercise, they used drones and armed “robotic wolves” for reconnaissance and assault, supported by armored vehicles and artillery to defeat simulated enemy forces.”
“China Boosts Patrols Near Taiwan on Japan-Philippines Talks.
“China said it launched a special maritime operation east of Taiwan, ramping up its response to a recent agreement between Japan and the Philippines to negotiate maritime borders in the area and deepen defense cooperation.”
“22 Naga women injured in clash with Assam Rifles in Manipur…
“The clash has sparked outrage among local communities, who accused the Assam Rifles of using excessive force against peaceful women protesters. Tension remains high in the area following the incident.”
https://kmsnews.org/kms/2026/06/08/22-naga-women-injured-in-clash-with-assam-rifles-in-manipur.html
“Four law enforcement personnel killed, 20 injured in Azad Kashmir clashes— police…
“The development takes place amid surging political tensions in AJK ahead of legislative elections scheduled to be held on July 27. The JAAC, a protest movement, has previously led demonstrations over economic grievances, governance reforms and political issues in the region.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2646341/pakistan
“Pakistan says 27 militants killed in multiple operations in restive northwest.
“Twenty-seven Pakistani Taliban militants were killed in multiple intelligence-based operations in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, the military said on Sunday, amid a surge in militancy in the region.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2646297/amp
“US weighs using Iranian assets to compensate Gulf allies for war damage.
“US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is weighing plans to use Iranian assets to pay for the rebuilding of Gulf countries hit by retaliation from Tehran, in a bid to limit the war’s fallout on American allies in the Middle East.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d19bd87f-2673-40e8-9216-8529d80b42aa?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Yemen missile triggers sirens in central Israel…
“IDF intercepts Yemen missile after central Israel sirens, as Israel strikes military targets in Iran and explosions are reported across the country… Earlier, Israel struck military targets in Iran overnight using ballistic missiles, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said, according to the state-run IRNA news agency.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/syvusoxzgl
“Drone strikes in Tigray kill unspecified number amid fears of renewed conflict…
“An unspecified number soldiers were killed and injured in drone strikes in the northwestern Tigray region, according to Dimtsi Weyane, in what appears to be another sign of renewed tensions between regional and federal forces…”
“Rights group says drone strike kills 11 in central Sudan market…
“The attack on Saturday targeted the main market in Abu Zaeima, a paramilitary-controlled town in North Kordofan state, according to Emergency Lawyers, which has documented abuses since fighting erupted in April 2023…”
“Ebola Cases Top 500 in Congo as Patient Escapes, Testing Delays Add to Challenges.
“Confirmed Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo surpassed 500 as health officials struggle to trace exposed contacts and keep patients in care in the country’s conflict-hit east.”
“Algiers has opened a new front against Morocco—and it’s no longer in the Sahara.
“What appears to be a de-escalation in the Sahara is in reality a redeployment of diplomatic, financial, and political resources toward another front—further south, less visible, and potentially more decisive for the regional balances of the 21st century. This front is the Sahel and West Africa.”
“No electricity, no gas, no sleep: Cubans on edge amid endless outages.
“The doctor called from the darkness, a shadowy figure sitting on the stoop of his apartment building. “I want to tell you we’ve been four days without light,” he said. “And without electricity, water is also a problem. And there are mosquitoes everywhere.””
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/08/cuba-power-outages-electricity
“Plans to Tap Bolivia’s Vast Mineral Riches Hit by Mass Unrest…
““There are markets that do not want to sign contracts with us because of the country’s political instability and the image we are projecting of failing to meet commitments,” said Oswaldo Barriga, president of the National Chamber of Exporters.”
“Study warns biodiversity loss could trigger wave of debt crises…
“”Financial markets are effectively blind to nature-related risks,” said the University of Sussex’s Matthew Agarwala. “As biodiversity loss undermines economic performance, it becomes harder for countries to service their debt, raising borrowing costs and fiscal strain.””
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
I just rewatched ’28 days later’, one of the best zombie apocalypse films ever made. I noticed something I didn’t when I last saw it twenty years ago when ‘collapse’ was a word on the utmost edges of my vocabulary – it’s chock full of pepsi product placements, to the point of the female lead recommending them as a vital source of sugar to the undernourished male lead. Pepsi’s CEO was like – low budget horror?… say less, hell yes, we’ll take 200 references to sweet, life-giving pepsi!
Interestingly, the movie has the UK alone collapsing after quarantined off from the world until all the zombies starve to death. It ends with our heroes settled down in the countryside, signalling their presence to a fighter jet presumably based somewhere on the continent. Normalcy will return soon. Back in the real world, collapse is not a freak accident but an outcome woven into the fabric of our daily lives. Too bad we’re still stuck in the “selective collapse” mindset of that film. And what’s worse, I am now desperately craving pepsi.
Great movie, Jupiviv. It was one of the first zombie movies to feature sprinting, as opposed to slowly shuffling, zombies – adding a new dimension to the terror, as the tagline might say. I really enjoyed “28 years Later”, too. It was surprisingly thoughtful and moving in parts.
“Interestingly, the movie has the UK alone collapsing…”
This is the inverse of another great, dystopian movie – “Children of Men”, where the UK is the lone holdout.
Top of my list is Train to Busan. Most films set on trains are pretty good. It hasn’t yet been messed up with a Hollywood/Netflix remake as far as I know, but probably will be (possibly with the whole train thing removed).
The Real Reason For The Zombie Boom? Follow The Money
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XgCFn6Vbnw
The strength of a metaphor – why people are drawn to zombie films.
When social media stimulates the amygdala, the prefrontal cortex takes a back seat.
Does Zombification explain the state of people’s ability to think and make rational decisions?
Thank you, Mad Hatter. That looks like a fascinating watch.
He may discuss this, but I wonder if these zombie films act as a kind of “simulation space” where the collective psyche can prepare itself for the shock of a future it knows, deep down, is coming.
He is not at that stage of surrender yet. The Zombie fascination comes from our collective unconscious being aware that our brains are being made into non critical thinking mush.
I think he hopes we will do something about it.
He is not alone 🙂
Algeria/Morocco/West Sahara is very precarious and the consequences of a war will be devastating. They have large armies which have been growing significantly in recent years. They are likely to be severely impacted by the coming El Nino with drought and heat waves impacting food production and urban water supplies (the area saw a lot of famine deaths in the 1877 event). They rely heavily on fertiliser from Gulf countries. Algeria oil production is probably slowly declining (despite OPEC announcements). Morocco phosphorus production is being cut because of sulphur shortages. Iran/Hezbollah support Algeria and West Sahara independence movement, UAE and Saudi support Morocco (probably different factions but I don’t know all the details). Whatever stability France may have once bought to the area has probably now gone. Mali and iMauritania, in the same area, are falling apart and there might be significant refugee problems.
George, thank you for that – very interesting. This is one of those geopolitical hotspots that tends to fly under the radar.
One silver lining for Morocco is that seven years of drought recently ended with an unprecedentedly wet winter:
“Record rainfall this year has helped Morocco reduce gas imports, with hydropower generation nearly triple year-ago levels.”
https://www.mees.com/2026/5/8/oil-gas/morocco-gas-imports-down-as-record-rainfall-boosts-hydropower/47235ba0-4add-11f1-9b36-c98506a6edc9
Thank you for sponsoring June, Kimpton! All hail, Dr. Suzuki. He might live long enough to see the end of IC. 😬
Thank you, indeed, Kimpton, and all hail, Dr. Suzuki.
“‘It’s too late’: David Suzuki says the fight against climate change is lost… “We have failed to shift the narrative and we are still caught up in the same legal, economic and political systems,” said David Suzuki in an exclusive interview with iPolitics. “For me, what we’ve got to do now is hunker down.””
https://www.ipolitics.ca/2025/07/02/its-too-late-david-suzuki-says-the-fight-against-climate-change-is-lost/
What fight? Musta missed that one.
Everything’s fine, just a few isolated events that will definitely not affect the cushy, comfy, high-tech way of life the universe promised us forever.
Best to enjoy it while we can, I guess, Leaf. Even that is surprisingly hard. 😅
Study referenced in Reuters report (open access):
Biodiversity loss will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-026-03081-7
George, I always roll my eyes a bit at these studies that try to frame our biophysical predicament in terms of lost dollars.
“We additionally explore a partial ecosystem collapse (PEC) scenario, which entails a 90% reduction in wild pollination services, a 90% reduction in total catch biomass from marine fisheries, and a conversion of 88% of tropical forest into grassland or shrubland. The result is a shortfall in global GDP of US$2 trillion (2014 US dollars) annually, compared with the BAU scenario2.”
Really? $2 trillion? Not total collapse of our living arrangements followed by global famine?
Not only the narrow focus and inability to image cascading consequences, but the bland joylessness of quantifying nature in money terms is quite depressing. But accountants and business types presumably have to produce accounting and business type papers in order to get grants (yet another depressing thought).
You could make the case that this mindset is at least part of the reason we got into this mess in the first place.
I stuck this up at OFW and figure it might fit here as well. Not much movement in oil prices after what went on overnite. Check out sulfur. I do not believe it’s price cannot be manipulated like it can with oil. Price is up 15% so far today.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/sulfur
Thank you, Duke. That is worth keeping an eye on. Sulfur is heavily tied to fertilizer production, of course, and mining.
Trying to understand when significant shortages of various fuels will occur and why paper oil markets are so sanguine about the largest energy supply shock in history is totally giving me a headache. 😂
Pan.. you are not alone, a number of analysts are asking the same question about why the markets are not pricing in the supply crunch.
Apart from the USA manipulating the futures market thru insider trading every other weekend, I suspect a part, but only a part of it, is some countries managing draw-down of their SPR reserves more effectively than expected, and/or squishing demand ..
Some countries, especially in Asia & Africa are certainly feeling the squeeze now… I thought my own country Australia would be screaming by now… It was well-known that we emptied our reserves during Covid, and never really refilled it properly.
But prices at the pump here are down…no shortages etc
No details on “deals”, but I suspect China and the other ASEAN countries with refineries, will help keep us chugging with diesel at least.
One analyst I saw did his math, & depending on reserve draw-downs (many countries may well be lying about how much they have) the latest the supply shock should hit the richer countries like USA is September.
Thanks, Rain. I found this summary and podcast very enlightening:
“WHY OIL ISN’T $200 (YET) DESPITE 1 BILLION BARRELS LOST:
– massive refinery run cuts (9Mboed)
-drawdowns: refined product storage + crude (SPRs)
-demand destruction of refined products
-“comatose” complacency among buyers
-China not buying
-hedge fund longs exhausted…
Other reasons: shoulder season, massive pre-war supply cushion, President Trump jawboning the market down, market players expecting Hormuz to “re-open any day now”
https://x.com/JackFarley96/status/2064023529843032303
https://youtu.be/e55m9Yry8Yc?si=C7A_lh04OiIL8aYL
Colorado river system 2 years vs dead pool in august? Adaptation nope this will not be fun to watch at all. They admit the system is collapsing but the rest is complete nonsense.
I don’t know about you but it appears to me that those in power are covering up the complete collapse of everything. It shows up in the news and YouTube in many ways mismanagement, climate control, fantasy land tech CEOs, and absolute denial still. The gutting of the water sensors in the pacific, no fema money. We are headed for one of the biggest bubble pops in history along with systemic collapse of oil and infrastructure add in environmental collapse.
Who cares about economics or global warming when all the fun is here;
“Researchers warned on Monday that nuclear-armed states were taking their arms out of storage and putting them on delivery systems, as the weapons of mass destruction are playing an increased role in global politics.”
AI doesn’t matter when the IA (Inferior Ape) can kill so many at one time.
Getting what fools deserve thru karma might not be as much fun as they thought.