Many thanks to my friend, Barry Smiler, for being May’s sponsor. Do take a look at his website, which nicely complements mine: Climate News · Research · Perspectives. He recently upgraded the site and welcomes any feedback you’d care to offer.
“Breaking News!
“May 21st saw yet another daily record for the global sea surface temperature, with El Nino just getting started.
“And the other 3 lines in that snapshot? 2023, 2024 and 2025.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2057841074975260894
“Sea level rise is speeding up and scientists now know exactly why.
“The world’s oceans are rising at an accelerating pace, and scientists now say they can fully explain what’s driving it. Warming seawater is the biggest factor, while melting glaciers and polar ice sheets are increasingly pouring more water into the oceans each year.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/05/260522023116.htm
“Antarctic Treaty meeting in Hiroshima fails to reach accord.
“The 48th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting ended its 11-day session in the city of Hiroshima on Thursday without reaching an agreement on key issues, including the protection of emperor penguins.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/05/22/japan/antarctic-treaty-meeting-no-accord/
“With Hormuz shut, Norway urges EU to rethink Arctic oil ban…
“In submissions to the EU’s public consultation on its Arctic policy, which closed in March, Norway’s Equinor and a lobby group backed by Shell, TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips also urged the EU to drop the effective ban on Arctic drilling.”
“Record heat continues in RUSSIA. Fifth consecutive day >30C [86F] north of 60N latitude – Unprecedented in spring.
“Today’s May records of highest temperature include: Gagarin, Uglik,V. Volocek, Ustyuzhna,etc. 30C is being recorded close to the Arctic Circle.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2057520464717590718
“Snow Melt Triggers Flooding in Far East Russia’s Buryatia.
“Melting snow has triggered flooding between the southern shores of Lake Baikal and northern Mongolia in Far East Russia’s republic of Buryatia, killing at least one person, according to regional emergency authorities.”
“Large-scale forest fire breaks out near the combat zone in Kharkiv region [Ukraine].
“A forest fire broke out on the territory of the Artemivske forestry of the Izyum forest district. Due to severe drought, wind, and proximity to the combat zone, the fire is spreading rapidly across forest areas.”
https://unn.ua/en/news/large-scale-forest-fire-breaks-out-near-the-combat-zone-in-kharkiv-region
“Climate change seeing roses bloom earlier than ever [UK].
“…flowering at the likes of Chartwell House in Westerham, Kent, is being brought forward from its traditional June high point, with this year’s first rose arriving as early as March. The shift has been driven by a milder, wetter winters and unusually warm spells in spring…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgjpw966p1po
“Health alerts for bank holiday weekend as record May heat forecast in UK…
“The UK is forecast to have its hottest ever day in May over the long weekend, marginally exceeding the 32.8C recorded around parts of London, West Sussex and Kent more than 80 years ago, on 29 May 1944.”
“We can say it clearly now: we are heading toward one of the most spectacular thermal events ever observed in France across all months combined, totally outside the statistical range of anything known so far in May.
It’s absolutely insane: the national heat record for the month of May could be broken, with over 36-37°C expected in France for SEVERAL DAYS.” [Dr Serge Zaka]
https://x.com/SergeZaka/status/2057850278251016627
“Girl, two, dies after being left in car as extreme heat sweeps Spain…
“Spain has been bracing for the kind of heat more commonly associated with midsummer. The state meteorological office, Aemet, said the “exceptionally high temperatures” could reach 36-38C [100.4F] in some southern parts of the country.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/21/girl-dies-car-extreme-heat-spain
“Severe Hailstorm and Flooding Devastate Farmland in Central Greece…
“Officials said thousands of acres of agricultural land were flooded, while thousands more suffered significant crop damage from the intense hailfall. The full scale of the destruction remains unclear, as many fields are still covered by water.”
https://www.tovima.com/world/severe-hailstorm-and-flooding-devastate-farmland-in-central-greece/
“Floods, landslide kill three in country’s south [Turkey].
“Severe rainfall has battered the southern province of Hatay, as one person was killed after a house collapsed in a landslide, another died when a collapsing overpass sent a vehicle plunging into a creek bed and a man lost his life after being swept away by floodwaters.”
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/floods-landslide-kill-three-in-countrys-south-222416
“From abundance to scarcity: How climate change is hurting Nigerian farmers…
“What was once one of Nigeria’s simplest pleasures, roasted corn eaten casually by the roadside, is quietly slipping out of reach. When the seasons stopped making sense. In Ogun State farms, one of the farms where Nigeria’s food system begins, the problem is already deeply felt.”
“Record heat again in MADAGASCAR.
“Yesterday Antsiranana (formerly known as Diego Suarez) re-broke its record of May highest temperature with 34.6C [94.3F].” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2057875794215526442
“Kenyan communities protest planned nuclear plant near Lake Victoria…
“The presence of a nuclear power plant near the ecologically sensitive Lake Victoria is also raising alarm among fishing communities that depend on the lake for sustenance and their livelihoods… The lake and its extraordinary biodiversity are already compromised by climate change and invasive species.”
“Drought and displacement affect millions in Somalia and Ethiopia…
“More than 6.5 million people, approximately 1 in every 4 Somalis, now face high levels of acute food insecurity, according to the widely used Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). More than 2 million people are in IPC Phase 4, indicating extreme food gaps and a high risk of malnutrition and death.”
“Cancer Risks, Toxic Gases, and a $3 Billion Price Tag: Iraq Confronts Its Plastic Waste Crisis.
“Every day, across Iraq’s cities and towns, approximately 40 million people discard around one kilogram of waste each. Some 400 grams of that is plastic. Multiplied across the population, the result is staggering: nearly 16,000 tons of plastic waste generated every single day.”
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/915610
“Flooding In Baghlan Kills 15 People [Afghanistan].
“The Taliban governor’s spokesman in Baghlan Province said on Friday that at least 15 people were killed in overnight floods, which also destroyed more than 200 homes and vast areas of farmland.”
https://www.afintl.com/en/202605220709
“Floods in the southern region of the country and on Issyk-Kul Lake: Floodwaters flood houses and destroy bridges [Kyrgyzstan].
“See the collapse and damage of one of the vital bridges due to the devastating floods that struck the Aksy District area affiliated with Jalal-Abad Province.”
https://x.com/Arab_Storms/status/2057876307539804509
“Himalayan rivers are becoming dangerously unstable as glaciers melt…
“According to a new study, these rivers are becoming dangerously unstable. They are shifting course faster than at any point in recorded observation, increasing the risks to nearby communities, farmland, and infrastructure.”
https://www.earth.com/news/himalayan-rivers-are-becoming-dangerously-unstable-as-glaciers-melt/
“Water As A Weapon In The Nuclearized South Asia: The Relevance Of Indus Waters Treaty…
“..Indian infrastructure development upstream in the western rivers goes against the technical and legal provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty [and] underlines a new threat for the region, which is the securitization and possible militarization of water in the region characterized by military rivalry, unstable nuclear deterrence, and worsening climate conditions.”
“Heatwave grips India as record temperatures disrupt schools and close shops.
“The India Meteorological Department warns that these conditions are likely to persist across several northern regions, with temperatures remaining well above seasonal averages. Climate experts attribute India’s rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves to human-made climate change.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/india-heatwave-record-temperatures-delhi-b2981280.html
“Torrential rains cause havoc countrywide [Sri Lanka].
“Heavy and persistent rains lashed several parts of Sri Lanka yesterday, triggering flooding, transport disruptions, flight diversions and multiple disaster warnings as water levels rose in key river basins and low-lying urban areas.”
https://island.lk/torrential-rains-cause-havoc-countrywide/
“New extreme rainfall records set in mainland China! From May 18th to 22nd, 2026, the rainfall in Yangjiang Xiashuang (AWS):
1058.5 mm in 24 hours
1555.5 mm in 48 hours [61.2 inches]
1767.0 mm in 72 hours.
“This broke the records for the highest 48h & 72h rainfall in mainland China!” [Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/2057814760935366741
“Guangdong floods prompt class suspensions, evacuations as monsoon rains intensify.
“Affected by floodwaters in the upper reaches of the Tanjiang River, the Changsha hydrological station is expected to reach a peak water level of around 2.4 meters… exceeding the warning level by 0.4 meters, putting the whole of Kaiping city under severe flood prevention pressure, the statement said.”
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202605/21/WS6a0ec45ea310d6866eb49f70.html
“Rescue efforts intensify in China’s Hunan as record floods kill 6, leave 10 missing.
“Rescue operations are in full swing in central China’s Hunan Province after record-breaking rains triggered devastating floods, killing at least six people and leaving ten missing as of Thursday morning, local authorities said.”
“EXTRAORDINARY WARMTH IN JAPAN:
“52 stations recorded their hottest spring night in history yesterday with Minimums locally >23C [73.4F] (like in August). See below: In Total 118 records fell in Japan in just 5 days in this historic spring heat wave.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2057737773562380461
“‘Heat acclimation’ important to prevent heatstroke even in May: Japan experts.
“As “summer days” with temperatures soaring to 25 degrees Celsius or above have already been observed in many areas in Japan, experts are underscoring the importance of “heat acclimation,” or getting the body used to the heat in preventing heatstroke.”
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260518/p2a/00m/0li/013000c
“RECORD HEAT PHILIPPINES & INDONESIA:
“Minimum temperature 27.0C Palangkaraya (Borneo) Highest ever recorded in its climatic history. Minimum 27.6C Tuguegarao also its Hottest night in history. 11 days >39C [102.2F] and many more to come. Harshest heat wave ever in the Philippines.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2057822268936335644
“Crazy how much ice Viedma Glacier in Patagonia (2nd largest in south America) has lost recently!
“Pic from yesterday, where you can see the right margin almost reaching the south tributary valley occupied by Laguna del Viedma (that used to drain into Lago Viedma).” [Melaine Le Roy]
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/2057861065673781702
“Forest fires in Patagonia increase tenfold: Greenpeace warns of the worst season in six decades.
“The satellite data shows that most of the damage was concentrated in Chubut (60,304 hectares), followed by Santa Cruz (290 hectares), Neuquén (238 hectares), and Río Negro (13 hectares).”
“The Brazilian Supreme Court Makes Way for the ‘Grain Train’…
“A nearly 600-mile railway that would cut through the heart of the Amazon rainforest got one step closer to reality Thursday when the Brazilian Supreme Court ruled that a national park could be resized to accommodate its passage.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22052026/brazil-supreme-court-greenlights-amazon-grain-train/
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN COLOMBIA.
“Endless extreme heat all over the country with records in several regions including 40.5C [104.9F] Valledupar, 37.0C Cartagena and 33.8C Medellin.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2057555901121187850
“UNBELIEVABLE – HONDURAS DID IT AGAIN.
“43.1C [109.6F] at Choluteca is HOTTEST DAY IN HONDURAS’ HISTORY and 11th monthly national record broken in 21 days!”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2057724145756938417
“Floods in Pachuca are due to “extraordinary issues” [Mexico]…
“”Rain accompanied by wind and hail generate damage, no matter how prepared an infrastructure was, it happens anywhere in the world.” As a result of the recent rainfall, damage was recorded in government facilities, shopping centers and private homes…”
“Rare: after days into the 108/115F in The West or Texas, the US National highest temperature on May 20nd dropped to 100F in few places including one station in NEW JERSEY which is more unique than rare.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2057355156090507524
“Are Dust Storms the New Hurricanes?
“…last week, Fargo, along with stretches of the rest of the Dakotas, Minnesota and Montana, spent days blanketed in vast dust clouds, kicked up by winds gusting to 70 miles per hour. Some of these turned into swirling “dirtnados…””
“Bad outlook for U.S. winter wheat crop gets worse.
“Many suspected the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop was in bad shape following months of drought across the Southern Plains. Few foresaw it getting this bad… Smaller crops expected in the U.S. as well as other top producers including Argentina, Australia and Canada should shrink the global balance sheet…”
“West Braces for Critical Water Shortages After Unprecedented Snow Drought…
“This year’s peak snowpack will be the new benchmark low for Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico; there are no comparable years. In these states, snow water equivalent (SWE) around April 1, the usual peak date, was 32- 53% lower than the previous record low…”
“Gov. Cox declares state of emergency for Utah’s drought…
“”We are coming off a winter that was the warmest on record, by nearly three degrees. Unfortunately these warmer temperatures are expected to continue through the summer,” the governor said at a news conference at Little Dell Reservoir.”
https://www.fox13now.com/news/utah-drought/gov-cox-declares-state-of-emergency-over-drought
“Fish out of water: Historic drought leaves little water for endangered species in critical stretch of Colorado River.
““It is really clear to me that we do not have enough tools in our toolbox to be able to manage for conditions like we have this year in the 15-mile reach,” said Julie Stahli, recovery program director. “We are so far outside the bounds of what we have ever seen before, that it’s really just hard to be able to make any good decisions.””
“Why an immense marine heatwave off the US west coast has alarmed scientists…
“As recently as early April, marine scientists had hoped that the heatwave might diminish and the worst of its effects might be avoided. However, new projections released last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) show it is now expected to expand and strengthen in the months to come.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/22/marine-heatwave-west-coast
“Vampire Planet: When the Oceans Die…
“What this current El Niño means for krill and seabirds remains to be seen, but if the past few months are any indication of what lies ahead, it’s not looking good.”
https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/05/22/vampire-planet-when-the-oceans-die/
“The network watching the world’s oceans is under pressure – just when it’s needed most…
“We found that if observations from a single major contributor, the United States, were withdrawn from GOOS, errors in estimates of how fast the ocean is warming would jump by 163% – worse than randomly losing 80% of all global ocean data.”
“Global lake anoxia is projected to intensify under climate change.
“Climate change, the paramount challenge of the 21st century, is affecting virtually every ecosystem across the globe… oxygen depletion is projected to become more frequent and prolonged, particularly in nutrient-rich lakes, where many are expected to experience extended oxygen-free conditions.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44458-026-00093-z
“Hotter 2026 and El Nino could trigger extreme fires…
“The world could see a “particularly severe year” of wildfires fueled by climate change and a potentially strong El Nino weather phenomenon after a record-breaking first few months of 2026, researchers warned Tuesday… Record-breaking burn areas have been observed in almost all countries in West Africa and the Sahel region.”
https://www.dw.com/en/el-nino-forest-fires-drought-extreme-weather-heat-climate/a-77137100
“UN backs historic climate crisis ruling, despite US attempts to stop resolution.
“The US joined Saudi Arabia, Russia, Israel, Iran, Yemen, Liberia and Belarus in opposing the resolution on Wednesday. Cop31 climate summit host Turkey, India, and oil producers Qatar and Nigeria were among those abstaining.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
2028-2030 Are going to some of the most insane times to be alive.
Next decade is unimaginable.
Thank you for all that you do.
You are welcome, Truth Wizard. Hope that new job doesn’t suck too much.
Historically, public revolts against wealthy elites are triggered by severe economic hardship and a total breakdown of basic living standards. Americans are going to experience a lot of upheaval in the next several years.
Fata Morgana in the Barents Sea
With the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed and European gas reserves far below desired levels, an old ghost suddenly reappears from the polar mist: the Barents Sea. Norwegian lobby groups, backed by companies such as Shell, TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips, are urging Brussels to reconsider the effective ban on new Arctic oil and gas development. Europe needs energy, they argue. A lot of energy. And preferably fast.
And so the strange mirage that has haunted the modern energy world for years appears once again.
In the public imagination, the Arctic is constantly portrayed as a hidden storage room filled with untouched riches. As if somewhere above the polar circle a gigantic emergency valve is waiting to be opened in order to secure Europe’s winter. Reality is less romantic.
Between an Equinor lobbying document and actual additional gas flowing into European heating systems lies an entire industrial overreach. Ice-reinforced platforms. Specialized LNG facilities. Ports. Compressor stations. Maintenance vessels. Helicopters. Insurance structures. Polar logistics. And above all: time. A great deal of time.
That last element always disappears from view.
In the spreadsheet world of energy politics, oil fields mainly exist as volumes. Billions of barrels. Trillions of cubic meters of gas. Large numbers designed to create the impression of abundance. But an industrial civilization does not run on geological presence alone.
The world still consumes roughly 100 million barrels of oil per day. Which means that even major new “discoveries” often amount to little more than temporary delays to a structural problem. Especially when dealing with extremely complex extraction zones such as the Barents Sea.
And that does not even begin to address the operational reality of the Arctic itself.
Because that extreme context also disappears almost entirely from the narrative. The northern seas are treated as abstract production zones on a map. In reality, however, parts of the Norwegian Arctic belong to the most dangerous maritime regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Polar storms, dark winters, corrosion, freezing sea spray, logistical delays and ice accumulation on installations make even simple operations difficult and expensive.
The sea does not even need to freeze over completely. Temperatures around freezing combined with wind and salt water are often enough to coat entire steel structures in ice. Sensors fail. Helicopter decks become unusable. Mechanical systems seize up. Everything requires additional maintenance, additional energy and additional organization.
But perhaps the most disturbing aspect is that the landscape itself — as a living organism — disappears entirely from view. Tragically, almost nobody talks about that anymore. The seabirds. The cold food chains. The spawning grounds. The slow-moving ecosystems that adapted over thousands of years to extreme conditions. As if the Arctic now exists solely as an industrial reserve zone for a civilization that no longer dares to limit its own energy appetite.
That is why the newly inflated rhetoric surrounding the Barents Sea ultimately remains what it has always been: fata morgana in polar mist. Projections of a system that refuses to recognize that not every boundary is a new frontier.
Sometimes a boundary is simply a boundary.
Another good one, Zip. Industrial Civ will not go gentle into that good night. It will rage, rage…
https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/46569/do-not-go-gentle-into-that-good-night
Such a wonderfully stirring poem, Cassandra. Used to memorable effect in the excellent movie Interstellar.
“As if the Arctic now exists solely as an industrial reserve zone for a civilization that no longer dares to limit its own energy appetite.”
Zip, and also as a geopolitical football. The jockeying for access to those expensive resources in the face of accelerating warming reminds me of people rushing out to collect stranded fish in the drawdown before a tsunami.
“The Arctic Enters a New Phase of Competition… Russia’s war in Ukraine, NATO enlargement to include Finland and Sweden, concern over critical infrastructure and renewed interest in Arctic shipping and resources have all pushed Arctic actors to think less in terms of symbolic presence and more in terms of operational capacity.”
https://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/the-arctic-enters-a-new-phase-of-competition
“The US joined Saudi Arabia, Russia, Israel, Iran, Yemen, Liberia and Belarus in opposing the resolution on Wednesday. Cop31 climate summit host Turkey, India, and oil producers Qatar and Nigeria were among those abstaining.”
Musical representation of the historical significance of both this ruling and opposition mounted against it, both in relation to and in the context of, the possibility of a middle ground between radical mitigation and radical adaptation.
Your Spinning Cat captures the absurdity nicely. Jupiviv.
It has apparently notched up a mind-boggling 590,700,544 views and must be purring all the way to the bank.
In contrast, sugar coating the actual to the people is an ploy to calm any panic that may arise if the truth be known..
Tropical activity could help bust Florida’s historic drought. Here’s when
Tropical moisture to surge into Sunshine State
https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2026/05/22/tropical-activity-could-help-bust-floridas-historic-drought-heres-when/
ORLANDO, Fla. –” Models are picking up on tropical signals over the upcoming week that could bring much needed rain to Florida heading into late May and early June.
While the National Hurricane Center has not highlighted anything of potential development yet, long range models continue hinting at a favorable setup for tropical moisture and even possibly some minimal development near the Gulf by the end of May and early June.
..This wetter pattern would be welcome news for a state dealing with its worst drought conditions in more than 25 years, along with expanding burn bans.
.
…..Stay with the News 6 weather team for updates as confidence in the forecast improves.
Daily Forecast
The News 6 Weather team ensures you’re always on top of the day’s ”
Yes, the Weather team “ensures” to provide what is required to stay calm….
Amazing, is it not, in light of the articles posted in today’s round up?
I hope that rain eventuates, Vince. El Nino should mean wetter conditions for Florida, although of course there is the risk with our amped up hydrological cycle that it is way too wet.
I know Pan likes to add a bit of jaded humor to his roundup and this just appeared..
Thought it very funny in a way..
Antarctic station discovers its shipping containers floating away on iceberg after blizzard
By Antarctic reporter Jano Gibson
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-23/tasmania-iceberg-breaks-away-with-shipping-containers-on-board/106710726
Seven shipping containers filled with fuel and waste have been spotted on an iceberg floating off the Antarctic coast.
The containers had originally been positioned on an ice shelf before a week-long blizzard caused a large section to break off into the sea.
What’s next?
Officials have expressed deep regret, saying diesel will have leaked out of the container into the surrounding environment.
Another fine mess you go me into, hun, Stanley?
Vince, apparently those containers were destined for Germany’s Neumayer Station III, but the chunk of coastline they’d been delivered to broke off. What a shambles.
“Spectacular thermal events” is the best euphemism I’ve heard in a while.
Survivalist, that Tweet was in French originally hence the unusual turn of phrase.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/05/ocean-heat-threatens-sea-ice.html?m=1
Lots of red here. Wasf. The last days in earth after seeing tons of red.
Thank you, Heather. It is unnerving seeing both sea and air temps hitting new highs already whilst the very latest El Nino forecasts are still trending higher. It’s going to be a wild ride.
The post below demonstrates the OECD countries’ attitude toward climate derangement: remove all warnings of the dangers lying in the road ahead and full speed ahead into folly.
https://www.fox6now.com/news/driver-removes-road-closed-barrier-gets-stuck-concrete
Nothing could be more demonstrative of said folly than the current wars, the current AI build-out in the face of economic collapse, the US attitude of splendid isolation even as the worst repercussions of weather gone wild threaten to destroy its productive capacity to do anything but drill, baby drill, and nowhere so much as the military.
While sideshows like COP highlight the intention of the richest nations on earth to do nothing but forestall any actual solutions, preferring to focus on developing still further its suicidal agenda of war, accelerating arms robofacturing, and the burning of more fossil fuels to get fossil fuels than it actually uses in energy production, the fact that the richest countries in the world intend to do nothing more for those countries suffering the most from the depredations of the unstoppable voracious capitalist monstrosity we have constructed and let loose on them, becomes undeniably manifest.
Pan’s posts and your astute commentary on them has convinced me more than ever of the analogy of 2001, A Space Odyssey , wherein humanity is Dave, floating helplessly outside the AI of our constructed Death Star, referred to by its more comforting moniker of the Capitalist System, while its very structure prevents us from even attempting to alter its trajectory in any meaningful way.
As complacency and indifference give way to panic and fear, desolation replaces fecundity as dust storms replace rainfall because the soil has been plowed up for mile upon endless mile to “grow renewable fuel”, via the application of non-renewable inputs (somehow), the stranglehold of Corporate rule over entire Nations tightens its grip, even unto asphyxiation: the governments thus being rendered useless, strangled in their cribs (Grover Nordquist), or “decapitated” by murderous military machines if they dare have the audacity to even pretend to do their job.
This is not a climate crisis, nor is it a climate emergency; it is the climate of our discontent taking roost, and as such, has mired any rescue vehicle we hoped would tow us to safety in the unbreakable concrete of our machine-mind’s intransigence.
Rob, that is a very stylish essay.
I’ve compared our predicament, bogged down in Tainter’s complexity problem, to poor Br’er Rabbit stuck to Br’er Fox’s tar baby, where every attempt to struggle free just leaves him more deeply trapped. If you remember the story, it was ego that got Br’er Rabbit into that mess, when he took offence at the tar baby’s refusal to greet him politely and hit him.
A pigheaded Wisconsin driver thinking they know best and driving into wet concrete also works nicely. 😂
I did read your comment, maybe that’s why the article struck me, also, I just finished, “The Conservationist” by Nadine Gordimer, in which the farmer jumps across a stream, one foot getting mired in the mud such that the more he pulled, the more the suction drew him in … scary; except he got free, not sure we’ll be so lucky.
Also, I’ve been saving this link to share:
https://energyskeptic.com/2026/more-and-more-and-more-one-of-the-best-books-on-energy-ever-written/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=more-and-more-and-more-one-of-the-best-books-on-energy-ever-written
Lots of Freeson’s book encapsulated here for those who’d like to peruse it.. lotsa good data I think your readers’d like.
Red alert red alert! Water resources expert Brad Udall from csu in Colorado just gave a quick interview on weather channel show this morning and they were freaking out. He stated that lake powell dam will go dead pool this year and will not be able to produce electricity. I kid you not they were screaming what does this mean? We have to decrease demand. Planet earth just did a control alt delete to humans. We are going back to pre cambrian times. Hold on to your butt!
““The snowpack was destroyed by the temperatures and lack of precipitation the likes of which have never occurred in the basin,” said Brad Udall, senior water and climate research scholar at Colorado State University’s Colorado Water Center. Udall added, “The river basin was already in dire straits. This only makes it worse.”
“…At about 23% capacity, Powell is nearing levels that threaten hydropower generation at Glen Canyon Dam. To compensate, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has reduced releases to Lake Mead. Lake Mead — the nation’s largest reservoir — is now roughly one-third full, its shrinking shoreline revealing long-submerged debris and, in several cases, human remains.”
https://www.denvergazette.com/2026/05/24/tapped-colorado-river-overallocation-collides-with-record-drought-conditions/
https://www.kcra.com/article/how-much-california-gasoline-left/71257433
Its not that bad guys we are winning and everything will go back to normal soon. Ignore all of climate signals ahead of summer.
REDUCTION IN FUEL CONSUMPTION…
May 23, 2026 , Written by Patrick Reymond
A significant drop in May, but less pronounced than in the first 10 days. We were at -30%, and now we’re only at -14% from May 1st to 20th. In April, we were only at 9.1%. Since diesel is the biggest loser, we can easily conclude that freight transport is becoming the adjustment variable. Private gasoline sales, on the other hand, show only a modest -0.9%.
I have two explanations. First, private sector salaries and pensions are paid around the 10th, and second, there are public holidays. Perhaps we’ve reached the peak of possible waiting with these payment dates, and the public holidays and long weekends haven’t been accompanied by the intense, acute-level activity that used to accompany them.
But 14% is still considerable, and clearly indicates an economic collapse, which is no less severe than that of Asia; there, there is physical shortage in many places, here, it is shortage through prices.
The moral of the story is that stocks are running out much less quickly than expected, either because they are already depleted, or because the pressure on prices has done its work.
The problem in France with petroleum products is that for non-transport uses, we are already at the bare minimum, lifestyles have changed, and then even “alternative” modes of transport are not competitive… Look at many places, urban buses, outside of school hours, run, but empty.
On an annual basis, the situation is as follows: “Over the last 12 months (May 2025 – April 2026), emissions have decreased by 2.2% to 54.727 million tons.” In 1973, France consumed 130 million tons of oil, cars often consumed well over 10 liters per 100 kilometers, and oil-fired boilers were inefficient. We’ve done what was easy: we’ve made progress, we’re moving towards the complete elimination of oil-fired boilers, a car that gets 6 liters per 100 kilometers is barely acceptable. We won’t do much better.
A long time ago, in 2017, we were still consuming 80 million tons. A decrease of 25 million tons indicates an accelerated depletion of resources.
The impact of teleworking and carpooling is pure nonsense. It’s completely marginal; what’s really happening is the likely cessation of an equivalent amount of economic activity. If fuel consumption has fallen by 14%, economic activity has undoubtedly decreased by the same amount, and the savings rate has essentially retreated into a cloud of savings. Public debt has changed its meaning, as it did between 1914 and 1945; it ends up absorbing excess circulation.
The UK is even more exposed to diesel shortages than France because of its refining deficit, Ravi. It seems much higher diesel thence freight costs are baked into the cake this year, no matter what happens with Hormuz. It’s probably a good time to front-load orders.
Anybody ever see recent comments anywhere from that climate denial character at POB who claimed to have a PhD but couldn’t do grade 6 math? I believe went by Javier on Janvier. I used to see their comments on a few blogs but seems to have disappeared.
Very vaguely, Survivalist. I think his shtick was cherry-picking a strong El Nino as a start-date and then arguing that the rate of warming was slowing.
Whisky Week shenanigans are afoot here on Islay, so forgive me if I am silent until tomorrow’s thread. 🥃
I’m not going to offer links because it’s bunk science, but Javier is still going. He is now trying to pin the increase of warming since 2023 on the eruption of Hunga Tonga. 😂
This showed up in my feed. It’s a very good post for those like Survivalist are hoping and planning to survive collapse as long as they can. Many good comments too.
https://open.substack.com/pub/revolverdispatch/p/lessons-from-argentinas-collapse
“Live as long as you can and die when you have to”
I’m living forever & making everyone miserable. 😉
Good article. Case studies are important. Realpolitik. Managing threats posed by criminals and criminal groups will be interesting once society simplifies.
I would suggest, though, that forming up with friends and doing the shopping together is a better idea than going alone. One grey dude with a 6 shooter isn’t exactly managing the risk.
If driving to a place for supplies the driver stays with the car. Have a pair on overwatch. Send a few dudes in for the shopping. Pick them up by a different exit if possible. 5 or 6 grey dudes working together is a better idea.
Don’t look wealthy and weak.
Present as poor.
Organized crime will likely get uppity as soon as things fragment. Some sort of security network will be necessary. Low Intensity Operations by Frank Kitson is insightful if interested.
…. Argentina case study article has me pondering- Preparing for a post-collapse society requires focusing on physical defense, operational security (OPSEC), community coordination, and, because hoards inevitably run out, transitioning from hoarding to sustainable production.
Argentina was able to rebuild, somewhat. Post collapse is a downward spiral.
I don’t think most folks can pull it off.
I might start a shelter for handicapped folks or something like that. See how it shakes out.
There is no deal . All theater . Let us now see when tank bottoms start . Latest Trump post .
https://x.com/staunovo/status/2058562355286376623/photo/1
Eliot sez no “end of the world” by 2030. What do you think?
https://open.substack.com/pub/climatecasino/p/unfortunately-the-end-of-the-world
If the 8 billion knew for a fact the monkey minds were going extinct, they would take no action if it affected their advantages.
The Rise and Fall of Ransom Kidnappings in Argentina
https://insightcrime.org/news/the-rise-and-fall-of-ransom-kidnappings-in-argentina/