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“The Next El Niño Could Lock Earth Into a Hotter Climate…
“Even a moderately strong El Niño during the next 12 to 18 months could drive the average global temperature to about 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial level, climate scientist James Hansen told Inside Climate News…
“Passing that threshold may not be like falling off a climate cliff, but it’s definitely the point when the edge starts crumbling, with rapid changes to relatively stable systems of forests, water, rain and temperatures that have sustained people and ecosystems for millennia.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25042026/el-nino-earth-warming/
“The latest CFS forecasts for El Niño need no hyperbole or exaggeration. The traditional Nino 3.4 region might actually be +3.4°C lol – I can’t tell because some of the members and also the mean are literally off the chart.
“The RONI, newer “relative” index – which takes our warmed climate into account – is like 2.7 which would be close to a record (if averaged over 3 months). The current record is +2.5°C in 1982-83.” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2048575548310327371
“+8°C above average warm waters… EIGHT. [current Pacific subsurface anomalies]
“All of that is traveling East, towards South America. Our El Niño might be in a league of its own.” [MatheusWR]
https://x.com/MatheusWR/status/2048884298623644059
“In the past 48 hours more records have fallen than any full month in history.
“210+ countries and territories (nearly 100% of the total) have been breaking thousands of records all this month. It will get WAY WORSE next days with several WORLD RECORDS at stake.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2048388365360214214
“Arctic sea-ice extent is crashing.
“Yesterday’s sea-ice extent set a new record daily low that was more than 85,000 square kilometers below the previous record daily low set in 2016.
“The Climate 8-ball is stocking up on beans.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2048740993521045755
“Ship traffic is growing in the High Arctic, but very unevenly…
“Over the decade 2013–2022, traffic has grown in all the LMEs, but very unequally. In the Barents Sea, vessels sailed 4.5 million nm further in 2022 than 10 years before, making the growth there the largest. As a contrast, the traffic in the Northern Canadian Archipelago increased by only 0.002 million nm.”
“SUMMER HEAT WAVE IN SIBERIA. Records smashed in pieces in this insane event which is rewriting world climatic history.
“Temperatures >30C [86F] and expected to rise to 34C in eastern/northern Russia, well above July averages.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2048384631561396623
“Rare April Snowstorm Shatters Record in Moscow, Leaves At Least 3 Dead in Samara…
“The weight of the snow toppled trees in Moscow and snapped power lines, cutting electricity to 50 villages in the surrounding Moscow region and leaving commuters stuck in gridlocked traffic. Some airports temporarily grounded flights due to poor weather conditions.”
“UK Government ‘failing’ dolphins and whales…
“The Priority Actions for North Sea Cetaceans 2026 report, published by The Wildlife Trusts, found that, while large parts of UK seas are designated as protected, legal safeguards are in many places too weak, poorly enforced, or “fail to keep pace with emerging threats”.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7050yy3zddo
“UK’s biggest ever environmental pollution claim reaches High Court.
“One of the UK’s largest chicken producers and a water company will be in the High Court on Monday accused of polluting the rivers Wye, Lugg and Usk. More than 4,500 people who live or work near the rivers along the Welsh-English border have signed up to take part…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqxl5rjw58po
“UK scientists to fire salt water into the sky in bid to tackle climate crisis.
“A UK-based team of scientists is working to understand how firing a mist of fine salt water high into the sky may be able to brighten clouds enough to reflect more sunlight back into space and help keep parts of the world cooler amid rising global temperatures.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-salt-water-sky-climate-crisis-b2965898.html
“The EU’s methane regulation could spark an energy crisis.
“The industry warns of price impacts “equivalent to those witnessed on European energy markets due to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East”. It could be a long, cold and costly winter. Half measures will not solve this problem.”
https://www.ft.com/content/bf1b0bb0-eea9-4336-bf5a-fad5117a33c6
“Spain’s famous terraces could shut under new rules during extreme heat this summer.
“People heading for a cold drink on a sunny terrace in Spain this summer may find some outdoor seating suddenly closed during extreme heat alerts. New hospitality sector rules mean bars, cafés and restaurants may need to stop terrace service when temperatures become dangerous for staff working outside.”
“Where heat records don’t exist – ITALY.
“No monthly heat record was broken in the whole 2026 and in the whole winter/autumn 2025. This is the longest recordless spell ever recorded in climatic history, despite thousands of records in every month in its neighbour countries.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2048439115268407502
“‘Omega Block’ Weather System to Bring Cold to Greece…
“…an “Omega Block” is set to drive Arctic air deep into Central and Southeastern Europe. Temperatures will drop up to 15 degrees Celsius below seasonal norms, raising serious concerns for the 2026 growing season…”
https://www.tovima.com/climate/omega-block-weather-system-to-bring-cold-to-greece/
“Hailstorm hit Gaziantep [Turkey].
“A hailstorm hit the city in the evening hours. The sudden hailstorm covered some streets and roads in white. Some residents moved their vehicles to parking lots and gas stations to protect them from the walnut-sized hailstones.”
https://www.dha.com.tr/foto-galeri/gaziantepte-dolu-yagisi-etkili-oldu-2861865/2
“Water crisis deepens in Savelugu as changing weather patterns worsen shortages [Ghana]…
“Every morning, before the sun rises, women and children walk long distances to look for water. Some walk for hours. Even after the long journey, the water they find is often dirty and unsafe.”
“At least 42 killed in Chad after water well dispute escalates.
“The conflict in Wadi Fira province, initially between two families, is said to have escalated into a cycle of reprisal attacks that spread over a wide area, with villages burned down. Chadian authorities said on Sunday that a delegation led by deputy Prime Minister Limane Mahamat had been sent to the area…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr717plvxvgo
“Dry tap reality: The growing water infrastructure crisis in South Africa.
“Approximately 47% to 56% of treated water is lost before reaching consumers due to leaking pipes and theft. Systems suffer from years of deferred maintenance, inadequate budgets, and a critical shortage of technical skills.”
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA:
“Eternal summer in SOUTH AFRICA with 35/37C [98.6F] again today. Records everywhere in Mozambique, Mauritius and also Madagascar (35.0C Fort Dauphin, another April record).” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2048830739576168616
“Rare flash floods hit southern Israel after heavy rain, hail…
“In Nahal Tze’elim, which drains into the Dead Sea near Masada, the strongest flow since measurements began was recorded after about 30 millimeters of rain and heavy hail fell in the stream’s drainage basin over a short period, causing the rare flood.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/environment/article/rktmksap11e
“Floods cut major roads in Syria after torrential rains…
“Civil Defense urged drivers to exercise caution during rainfall and avoid crossing waterways or driving through agricultural land. Earlier this month, severe weather hit western rural areas of Daraa in southern Syria, where heavy rain and hail caused major damage to agricultural crops.”
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/floods-cut-major-roads-in-syria-after-torrential-rains/3919921
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN MIDDLE EAST:
“Insane MINIMUMS up to 34.3C [93.7F] in OMAN (Khassab) – it’s one of the Hottest nights ever recorded in the world in APRIL. And next days will be much worse.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2048701375748473248
“Iraq could face over 100 days of dust storms this season: Monitor.
“Iraq could experience more than 100 days of dust and sand storms during the current season, the Iraq Green Observatory said on Monday, warning that rainfall this year was “not sufficient and not regular.” …Iraq still suffers from drought and severe desertification…”
https://thenewregion.com/posts/5213
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN CENTRAL ASIA:
“Many records of April High Minimums smashed in the past days. MINIMUMS up to 26C [78.8F] in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and 23C in Tajikistan. Some stations had their first tropical night in April.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2048697098388766865
“Hindu Kush Himalaya snowpack crashes to record low for fourth straight year, water shortages imminent.
“Snow cover across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) has fallen to 27.8% below the long-term average, breaking last year’s record low and marking the fourth consecutive year below-normal snow persistence, according to the Snow Update Report 2026 released today.”
“HISTORIC HEAT IN INDIA AND PAKISTAN – nearly the whole area is with record hot nights for April…
“Weeks and weeks with 45/47C [116.6F] in April: never happened before. Records of April hottest night fall every day.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2048336052893442172
“India’s Heat Wave Creates New Inflation Risks After Oil Surge.
“Temperatures of as high as 47C (117F) have gripped parts of northern India this week, and power demand has surged to a record in the country as households cranked up air conditioners and fans to cool down. The government is also predicting below-normal rains between the June and September monsoon season, which is crucial for farming activity.”
“HISTORIC HEAT IN NEPAL:
“Unbelievable what’s happening in Nepal: records of High Minimums shattered by 5/7F margins, the hugest margins a record has ever been broken anywhere anytime near the tropics… Crazy MINIMUM 28.0C [82.4F] Dhangadhi is HOTTEST APRIL NIGHT EVER RECORDED IN NEPAL.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2048334997283549508
“Lightning strikes in Bangladesh kill 14 – including 10-year-old boy…
“The intense lightning came amid storms and heavy rain which swept across several parts of the country, including the capital Dhaka. A rise in deaths from lightning strikes in Bangladesh in recent years has been linked to deforestation.”
https://news.sky.com/story/boy-10-among-14-killed-by-lightning-strikes-in-bangladesh-1353706
“Heavy flooding in southern China forces evacuations and leaves vehicles submerged…
“Qinzhou authorities said the city’s meteorological station recorded rainfall of over 270 millimeters (about 10 inches) during a 24-hour period ending at 8 a.m. on Monday. That was the highest amount recorded there on a single day in April.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/beijing-china-chinese-xinhua-guangxi-b2966130.html
“Tsunami survivor battles wildfire to protect hometown in Japan’s northeast.
“Ryota Haga, a 31-year-old volunteer firefighter who lost his family home in the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, is leading efforts to protect his hometown of Otsuchi from a massive wildfire. The blaze has burned for over six days, consuming more than 1,600 hectares (approx. 4,000 acres) of forest in Japan’s northeastern Iwate Prefecture.”
“Southeast Asia’s office workers reel from energy-saving drive, heatwave.
““Sometimes it even feels hard to breathe,” said Pornpimol Sirimai, who works at the health ministry and has bought electric fans to cool down. “The canteen and even the 7-Eleven downstairs are cooler than our office, which is why people end up gathering there.””
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN THAILAND – this is one of the worst heat waves the world has ever seen with THI’s >50C [122F] for weeks.
“Records have been falling every single day since January. Last records: 40.5 [104.9F] Krabi all time record, 39.7 Ranong all time record, 38.3 Phuket AP April Record. It will get worse and worse.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2048746792372637739
“Extreme Heat Is Breaking Cambodia’s Farms, and the Window to Act Is Closing Fast…
“Cambodia is particularly exposed to climate risks. The country is already dealing with more frequent floods, prolonged droughts, and increasingly intense heat during the dry season.”
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN BRUNEI – Exceptional MINIMUM Of 27.4C is HOTTEST NIGHT EVER RECORDED IN BRUNEI.
“Heat indexes have been hovering 50C [122F] for days. It’s one of the worst heat waves Brunei (and Malaysia) has ever experienced.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2048799107595305330
“ENDLESS RECORD HEAT IN INDONESIA. Every single island is grinding records in pieces every day. They were all set in 2024 and 2025.
“Today records: 36.6 [97.9F] Lhokseumawe (Aceh), 35.4 Manokwari (W Papua), Min 28.3 Ranai (Riau).” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2048747935425261917
“Deforestation is surging in Indonesia.
“Indonesia’s forests, long held up as a case of tentative progress, are again under pressure. New analysis shows deforestation rose sharply in 2025, reversing several years of decline and returning to levels not seen in nearly a decade, reports Mongabay’s Hans Nicholas Jong.”
https://news.mongabay.com/short-article/2026/04/deforestation-is-surging-in-indonesia/
“How climate change threatens the economic backbone of the Pacific…
“Warming water temperatures caused by climate change pose a substantial risk to local tuna populations, threatening Kiribati’s economic backbone. Scientists fear warmer waters could lead to tuna moving permanently out of its EEZ to cooler temperatures to the east…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq57vxjvdy4o
“Amazon safeguards cut deforestation but miss rising forest degradation threat.
“…things are changing, and fast. “2024 was the most extreme year for fires,” Antonio said. “I had never seen anything like it. The forest burned like dry pasture—it was frightening for those of us who risk our lives to protect it.””
https://phys.org/news/2026-04-amazon-safeguards-deforestation-forest-degradation.html
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN CENTRAL AMERICA:
“Historic heat wave in GUATEMALA – 43.4C [110.1F] at La Fragua HOTTEST APRIL DAY IN HISTORY. Records have been falling everywhere in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua,Costa Rica, Panama…” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2048532632124694576
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN MEXICO:
“North America climatic history is being rewritten with this brutal heat wave which is breaking WORLD HEAT RECORDS at high elevations for April. Among the most important records – 37.0C [98.6F at Guanajuato 2000m asl. WORLD CLIMATIC HISTORY REWRITTEN.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2048999932934164890
“It’s been the 2nd-warmest April on record so far across the United States.
“It hasn’t been as extreme as March, but temperatures have been about 3.5˚F above average across the country as a whole.” [Ben Noll]
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2048401718669607290
“Heavy rain not ‘nearly enough’ to tame two wildfires in drought-stricken Georgia…
“The biggest blaze, the Pineland Road fire, has scorched more than 50 sq miles (130sq km) and at least 35 homes in a sparsely populated and heavily wooded part of the state about 35 miles (56km) north of Florida, which is also dealing with wildfires.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/27/georgia-wildfires-rain
“Lake Mead’s drops raise prospect of unaffordable Hoover Dam electricity…
“Not only will its electricity likely no longer be cheap, its price may climb high enough over the next year or so to make it “unaffordable” for many of its current users, said Jordy Fuentes, director of the Arizona Power Authority, a state agency that buys Hoover Dam power from the feds and markets it to 71 customers statewide.”
https://tucson.com/news/local/subscriber/article_d72c2f91-3707-4c99-a954-c39ee1eaf018.html
“Sewers have been hiding a climate problem in plain sight, and this new tool finally exposes its true scale…
“…the team estimates that global sewer systems emit approximately 1.18 to 1.95 million tons of methane annually, adding 1.7% to 3.3% to the currently estimated global methane emissions by the waste sector, and approximately 16% to 38% to the estimated overall carbon footprint of wastewater management.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-04-sewers-climate-problem-plain-sight.html
“Toxins plus climate harms likely cause of reduced fertility, study finds.
“Simultaneous exposure to toxic chemicals and climate change’s impacts likely generates an additive or synergistic effect that increases reproductive harm, and may contribute to the broad global drop in fertility, new peer-reviewed research finds.”
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2026/apr/26/toxic-exposure-climate-crisis-study
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. Panopticon hopes to be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
>>> The Next El Niño Could Lock Earth Into a Hotter Climate
Wow, there it is, George Kaplan should be working with James Hansen’s team.
To quote Mike B with the best ever comment here – “Good Morning, we’re fucked!”. And more than that we’re equally fucked by accelerating climate change or resource depletion, which seem to be happening almost in exact lockstep – I’m still waiting for the first big trophic collapse caused by species extinction but it’s coming. And we can probably put expected date of no later than some time in the (probably first half of the) thirties for all three.
George, as you probably recall, the UK government was recently advised that this is very possible:
“Ministers suppressed a report after intelligence chiefs warned that climate change could drive mass migration to Britain and trigger a nuclear war in Asia. The study, entitled Global Biodiversity Loss, Ecosystem Collapse and National Security, was put together with the help of the joint intelligence committee, which oversees MI5 and MI6…
“…the report said that many ecosystems around the world were so stressed that they could soon pass a tipping point, after which they would inexorably degrade no matter what humans did to protect them. Forests in Canada and Russia might pass a tipping point by 2030, as might glaciers in the Himalayas that fed rivers on which two billion people depended, the report suggested.”
https://www.thetimes.com/article/4a1c136c-f01d-4ecd-abfd-14621b47ea45
>>> You can be as grumpy as you want. These are shitty times.
– Mike B
>>> Dear Nobody/Grump 1, I believe you’re right. Thanks for weighing in. Love, Grump 2
– Cassandra
I’m a Grumpy Groupie too.
Flippr, I’m trying to go the “Joanna Macy” route but grumpiness does creep in at times. 😅
Thanks to all the climate journalists, scientists, academics, and authors who insist on exclusively using the terms “could,” “may,” “might,” and “if” when presenting their observations and findings.
Rather than make informed conclusions extrapolated from clear data, our putative experts know that providing themselves with the merest sliver of a hedge or wiggle room, even if wholly fanciful, allows themselves an escape route in the court of public opinion, and allows for readers to go on as normal with their daily lives. Sure, that involves lying, but they know how the game must be played.
Martin, as Mary Poppins once sang, “A spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down”.
Going ‘all British t’day, are, we guvnor?
As a form of respect, allow me to say I would vote to give you knighthood for your unbelievable service to mankind here at C&E, but let me ask you a direct question for our transatlantic relationship – if elected to a position in the Isles, would you swear an allegiance to your putative monarch, Mr. Charles whatever his last name is? Even the latest British green representative had to do that ghastly deed – whatever could she have been thinking?
Thank you for the hypothetical knighthood, Martin. 😂
I suppose if I were hellbent on a political career I would just suck it up and affirm allegiance to the King, as all MP’s must, but I’d have my fingers crossed behind my back.
Shootin’ salt water in the sky to tackle climate change should be in the “funnies” section. Oh well, we are getting roasted, so we might as well get salted a bit 🙂
I’m ambivalent on geoengineering, Goran, as we’re already up to our necks in unintended consequences and almost certainly damned if we do and damned if we don’t.
Some varieties seem less risky than others. The recent experiment that saw sodium hydroxide dumped in the Gulf of Maine to remove C02 from the atmosphere didn’t seem to do any harm, but it was on a tiny scale. 🤷♂️
Hi Pan, i think it was the “tackle” part that made him cackle.
It´s like heating your oven 200 C for a pizza and then put a wet blanket inside it, to cool it down to 180C as the pizza package says, instead of, ya know, actually turning the heat down.
Air conditioners will go the way of ddr5 ram sticks. Get em while they are somewhat affordable! Then again everything is gonna end up like ddr5 ram so…
Jupiviv, SE England is particularly in need of them, as houses are generally built for heat retention and not the 40C heatwaves they’ve started experiencing.
“London’s lack of air conditioning ‘could cost city £200m every year as people avoid city’…
“Currently, the London Plan encourages new developments to adopt “passive” cooling measures – such as trees, green roofs and shading – rather than “active” measures, such as AC. Across the country, just five per cent of buildings currently have AC installed.”
https://www.mylondon.news/news/zone-1-news/londons-lack-air-conditioning-could-33750095
Well.. I’m taking my visitor turtle up to the nearest pond/lake tomorrow, and hopefully let it find a niche in the reeds, grasses & logs & rocks etc.
Going into winter, I am slowly repairing the long dead veggie garden area, planted a locquat tree, I might also get a mulberry and hazelnut trees…
And blueberry in pots…
hopefully I will have something usable by spring… the local water systems are overflowing after years and years of flooding rains, so should be fine for the El Nino coming… May need shade cloth until my new trees get tall enough
No shortages yet, but have noticed rapid cost inflation on both fresh and processed food items, and general household groceries… Buying bulk prepared meal kits or frozen meal packs for fortnightly or monthly delivery boxes is actually “affordable” in comparison!
.oh well.. the tv still works, so can cruise along with this dude before sleep..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txgPfnXgzcE&t=820s
Good luck with your cultivation and getting your little friend started in the wild, Rain.
Apart from at the pumps, inflation has only just started working its way through the system here. The Food and Drink Federation is suggesting we could see 10% food inflation this year. That’s on top of a 40% increase since Covid.
Here in northern Maine it is now 3.8 times more expensive to heat your house with oil than it is with wood. Still chilly enough in the morning to require some kind of heat.
Kind of funny how things have changed since we were talking about seaweed and its use in our gardens. That was just a couple of months ago. We are putting it on everything now.
Yes, in some scenarios, tomato prices have experienced a staggering increase of over 100% year-over-year as of April 2026.
Yahoo Finance
Yahoo Finance
+1
While average retail prices for fresh tomatoes are officially up by roughly 23%—reaching their highest point in eight years—reports indicate a “perfect storm” of factors has created much higher spikes for wholesale and specific, high-demand, or imported varieties.
CNBC
CNBC
+2
Pan’s link above: 42 people killed in drought stricken Chad fighting over a water hole.
That is the new benchmark, much more lethal than the battle for water in the movie, “2001: a Space Odessey”.
I cannot wait to see the battles that will inevitably result when the Colorado River becomes a series of mud puddles.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Is that improvement in the kill ratio a clear sign of human progress?
I’m reposting what Survivalist posted yesterday. Fascinating to hear what the thinking was 16 years ago. Don’t know who of those interviewed are still alive, I’d be very interested to hear what they would say today.
Part 1
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/audio/1.1659189
Part 2
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/audio/1.1659187
Part 3
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/audio/1.1659186
Thanks, Texas Guy. My apologies – WordPress holds back comments with multiple links. You could post again today with each link in a separate comment if that’s not a pain?
The collapse aware crowd is an interesting bunch. Thanks everyone for all the great reads. The collapse unaware crowd is in for a hell of an awakening. Awareness is a virtue.
“The collapse aware crowd is an interesting bunch.”
Survivalist, I guess most people operating far outside mainstream narratives are pretty interesting, for better or worse. 😂