Huge thanks to my sponsor for March, the splendid Professor Pongoo.
“‘Very alarming’ winter sees Arctic sea ice hit record-low for second year running…
“The past six months has seen Arctic sea ice extent “at record or near-record lows, alongside unusually warm conditions” across much of the region, says Dr Lettie Roach, a polar climate scientist at the Alfred Wegener Institute.”
https://www.carbonbrief.org/very-alarming-winter-sees-arctic-sea-ice-hit-record-low-for-second-year-running/
“We’ve now seen 12 consecutive days setting a new record daily low for Arctic sea-ice extent.
“The yellow line tracks the previous record daily low.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2037521087031115933
“Changing vegetation in thawing permafrost increases emissions of greenhouse gases.
“The structure of the plant communities that grow on the thawing permafrost in the Arctic is changing, with grasses displacing slower-growing shrubs. Although these grasses bind more carbon dioxide than previous plant communities, they lead to far more methane emissions over the course of the year.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-03-vegetation-permafrost-emissions-greenhouse-gases.html
“EXTRAORDINARY WARMTH IN NORTHERN EUROPE:
“Records were locally broken by 6/7C margins: it’s one of the most extreme events ever seen in European climatic history with Minimums >+7C even North of 60N in Lapland and and Russia where records were just above 0C… including a Min 8.2C [46.8F] St Petersburg.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2037184145462616511
“Farmers push for suspension of carbon charges on fertiliser as prices soar due to Iran war. [Ireland]…
“It comes as spokesman for Minister for Agriculture Martin Heydon said on Friday that there may only be enough fertiliser in the country to supply the needs of farmers until the middle or the end of April.”
“Raw sewage was discharged into rivers and seas almost 300,000 times last year after the driest spring for more than 100 years and the sunniest and warmest year on record in England.
“Water companies released raw sewage into rivers and seas from storm overflows – designed to be used in extreme wet weather conditions – 291,492 times.”
“Severe weather disrupts daily life in the Balkans.
“Stormy winds, rain, and snow closed schools and left thousands of people without electricity on Friday in parts of Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia. Bad weather also snarled traffic and blocked roads in the region… wind speeds reached 141 kph (87 mph) in some areas…”
“‘A toxic punch’: fears Russia’s war is pushing the Black Sea and its dolphins past tipping point…
“Aside from the oil spills and munitions, accoustic disturbance from military sonar is also thought to be a critical threat to cetaceans, leading to dolphin strandings and death.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/26/a-toxic-punch-fears-russia-war-black-sea-dolphins
“Large-scale emergency response to floods in Hasaka [Syria].
“Humanitarian and relief agencies in Hasaka Province have begun implementing a comprehensive emergency plan to deal with the aftermath of the floods, under the supervision and direction of Hasaka Governor Eng. Nureddin Ahmed…”
https://hawarnews.com/en/large-scale-emergency-response-to-floods-in-hasaka
“EgyptAir issues emergency travel alert amid severe weather.
“Egypt is currently grappling with one of its most severe weather events in years as a “heavy” polar depression dominates the region… torrential rains and flash flood warnings disrupted daily life and forced a nationwide suspension of schools and universities.”
https://www.egyptindependent.com/egyptair-issues-emergency-travel-alert-amid-severe-weather/
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN AFRICA – hundreds of records smashed from West to East with Up to 45C and Minimums up to 32C.
“More records: 39.9 Bosaso [103.8F] is SOMALIA HOTTEST MARCH DAY EVER.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2037213658569466118
“Somalia’s children pay the price as drought, war and Aid cuts collide…
“At Ladan camp in Dollow, families displaced by four failed rainy seasons are struggling to survive. Crops and livestock have been wiped out, forcing thousands to flee with little more than their children.”
“Kenya drought pushes millions toward hunger.
“What happens when the rains just stop coming? In northern Kenya, millions of people are struggling to find enough basic food and water to survive. Hundreds of thousands are already living in emergency conditions.”
https://www.dw.com/en/kenya-drought-pushes-millions-toward-hunger/video-76552006
“Landslides triggered by heavy rainfall kill at least 20 people in Tanzania.
“Landslides triggered by heavy rainfall have killed at least 20 people in southern Tanzania in recent days, authorities said, as the death toll from across the wider East African region continues to rise.”
“Extreme heat is rapidly becoming a major risk in Southern Africa.
““Extreme heat is no longer a distant projection; it is already reshaping the lived realities of millions of people across Southern Africa,” stressed study-leading Expert Panel chairperson Professor Jerome Amir Singh.”
“Never ending summer in SOUTH AFRICA:
“Hundreds of records have fallen every single day of the month. Today it was March hottest night at Pongola: min 24.2C. Next days will be a sauna in the East and an oven in West with up to 42C [107.6F]. Hundreds of records will be pulverized.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2037463992210428279
“ABSOLUTE INSANITY – JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND [MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL] RECORD HEAT AGAIN.
“Every day is a record day at Juan de Nova: crazy 36.4C [97.5F] today is MARCH HOTTEST DAY IN FRENCH SOUTHERN TERRITORY. Record heat has been relentless for over 12 years and it will get worse. Monthly anomalies are of +3C +4C every month.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2037558559777624462
“Breaking – conditions are rapidly deteriorating in the Al Hailin area of Suwaiq Governorate, Oman.
“Flash floodwaters have inundated homes, with levels rising as high as the second floor in some buildings.”[Volcaholic]
https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/2037642207616795001
“Wadi Al Jizzi in Sohar, Oman, records historic flow and water level approaches bridge level.” [Word Gate Weather]
https://x.com/WordGateWeather/status/2037353387919085691
“World’s tallest building hit by lightning as Dubai suffers flooding after heavy storms.
“Dubai has been hit by overnight flooding after “intense downpours” hit several cities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), prompting officials to issue warnings… Police, pumping crews and recovery vehicles were out before dawn to try to clear the water…”
“Iran was already running out of water. Then came the ‘war on infrastructure.’…
“The country has been facing an unprecedented climate-charged drought for the last six years. That limited rainfall has collided with Iran’s legacy of overpumping water from aquifers and reservoirs.”
“The Caspian Sea is Dying and Current Prospects for Saving It are Poor.
“The Caspian Sea is dying, with its water level now the lowest in the last 400 years and projected to fall by another foot every year for the rest of this century—leading to a tragedy far greater than the death of the Aral Sea in Central Asia several decades ago.”
https://jamestown.org/caspian-sea-is-dying-and-current-prospects-for-saving-it-are-poor/
“CENTRAL ASIA RECORD HEAT:
“34C [93.2F] TURKMENISTAN; tropical nights in UZBEKISTAN; March Records in KAZAKHSTAN: 31.5 Turkestan, 31.4 Kaukey, 30.5 Karak, 30.2 Akkum, 29.6 Shardara, 29.5 Bayrkum, 27.8 Kulsary, 25.5 Uil.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2037598944944107697
“Indus Water Treaty suspension speeding up projects, govt says Jammu & Kashmir hydropower capacity to rise 46%.
“With the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty accelerating construction of hydel power projects in Jammu & Kashmir, the Union Territory is likely to see at least a 46% increase in installed hydropower capacity by the end of the current year.”
“Scorching summer to push India towards potential power, water crisis?
“Scorching summer to push India towards potential power, water crisis? New Delhi: India is heading toward a potential electricity and water supply crisis this summer as extreme heat conditions intensify, according to a new study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water.”
https://madhyamamonline.com/india/scorching-summer-to-push-india-towards-power-water-crisis-150642
“Climate change tests Nepal’s wild and domesticated yaks…
“Warming temperatures are altering water cycles, vegetation and soil carbon, while drying wetlands and glacier changes increase fire risk and reduce grazing areas for both domestic and wild yaks. Wild yaks face threats from habitat shrinkage, crossbreeding with domestic yaks, overharvesting of food sources.”
https://news.mongabay.com/2026/03/climate-change-tests-nepals-wild-and-domesticated-yaks/
“HOKKAIDO RECORD HEAT – the coldest area of Japan is with record warmth: 12.3C [54.1F] Horokana today broke its record of March highest temperatures.
“Records are falling from the Caspian Sea all the way to Japan all over Asia – a heatwave which is rewriting Asian history.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2037129206220677405
“Wildfires and Fires Erupt in Gyeongnam, Jeollanam Provinces [Korea].
“Amid dry weather nationwide, wildfires and fires have broken out in various regions, including Gyeongnam and Jeollanam provinces, prompting authorities to conduct extinguishing operations. dry weather advisories are currently in effect for 31 regions.”
https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2026/03/28/S4EXBWYVYFBOFGU4XC7Q3DTSLE/
“Malaysia’s rice bowl is thirsting for water as heat bakes in—and El Nino isn’t even here yet.
“Water levels are below 70 per cent at nearly a quarter of Malaysia’s dams in the country’s north and south, offering a warning sign for the rest of the country to step up preparations ahead of a potentially record-breaking El Nino, which could bring intense heatwaves.”
“HISTORIC HEAT IN SE ASIA:
“Record heat from Thailand to Australia. MARCH MONTHLY RECORDS. THAILAND already >42C [107.6F]… 39.5 Satun, 38.4 Phuket AP, min 27.2 Ayutthaya; LAOS: 40.5 Saravane; INDONESIA: 35.0 Maumere.”
[ExtremeTemps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2037519431325319503
“Tracing Tropical Cyclone Narelle’s ‘very unusual’ path to hit Australia on three coastlines…
“When it crossed the Western Australian coast on Friday afternoon, Tropical Cyclone Narelle became the first storm system in over 20 years to make landfall in three of Australia’s states and territories.”
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA:
“Insane Minimum 32.2C [90F] at Port Hedland yesterday – It’s the hottest night ever recorded in the whole Southern Hemisphere this time of the year. April will start smashing thousands of records in Australia, South America and South Africa.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2037248780563865953
“Coldest March temperatures on record for parts of southeast Queensland.
“Amberley’s minimum temperature of 6.2°C [43.2F] was the coldest March temperature in more than 84 years of records. Toowoomba’s temperature of 8.1°C was the coldest March temperature in more than 29 years of records.”
“Hundreds evacuated in Kaitāia as two months’ rain falls in 24 hours [NZ]…
“The deluge dumped an estimated two months’ worth of rain in just 24 hours, with the impacts of the wider subtropical low prompting states of emergency to be declared in the Far North District and Whangārei District on Thursday.”
“And in OCEANIA as always it’s RECORD HEAT:
“Min 28.3 [91.4F] Max 33.0 Majuro – MARSHALL ISLANDS RECORD MARCH HOTTEST NIGHT & DAY. 220 countries and Territories (near 100%) have broken heat records this month. Like never before.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2037744016482246762
“This Equatorial Westerly Wind Burst in the Central Pacific next week is truly remarkable and honestly one of the strongest I’ve ever seen.
“Hello Super El Niño.” [Eric Webb]
https://x.com/webberweather/status/2037295684089754056
Daily sea surface temps still sitting at a record high – 21.13C as of 26th March, just above 2024.
[Climate Re-analyser]
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2
“Civil Defense issues severe alert for heavy rain in the city of Sao Paulo [Brazil].
“Teams from the Civil Defense and the Secretariats of Infrastructure, Urban Services and Environment and Animal Welfare are working in the affected regions.”
“A study looking at land and atmosphere interactions in the Amazon Basin across four decades found that 52-72% of the rainfall decline in the southern Amazon is due to large-scale deforestation.
“Between 1980 and 2019, annual precipitation in the southern Amazon declined by 8-11%, with most of the region losing on average 7.7% of its forest cover over largely the same period.”
“45C AGAIN IN MEXICO. That’s 113F, folks.
“Nearly 2 weeks constantly above records, often above those of April and sometimes above those of May. Every single day. And tonight record of March warmest night were smashed again: Min 21.8C [78.2F] Culiacan and 21.1C Choix In Sinaloa.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2037580487816855789
“17 STATES NOW WITH THE MARCH HOTTEST DAY IN HISTORY:
“112 California, 112 Arizona, 108 Texas, 106 Nevada, 106 Oklahoma, 104 Kansas, 103 New Mexico, 99 Nebraska, 99 Colorado, 97 Iowa, 97 Utah, 97 Missouri, 97 South Dakota, 90 Wyoming, 88 Minnesota, 86 Idaho, 94 Illinois.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2037601549464272976
“The astonishing rate of March snowmelt in Colorado River Basin continues, and is now well into record-low territory (even, it appears, relative to pre-SNOTEL era).
“And the extreme regional heatwave is only slowly fading, with unprecedented March melt continuing in meantime.” [Daniel Swain]
https://x.com/Weather_West/status/2037566020299223457
“Airborne surveys show more than 90% snowpack loss in Arizona’s Upper Black River Basin…
“The basin feeds the Salt River system upstream of Roosevelt Dam, part of the reservoir network supplying water to more than 2.5 million people in the Phoenix metropolitan area.”
“Phoenix is averaging 92.7°F for March 1–27. Normal is 77.5°F.
“The mean of all daily record highs recorded for those dates between 1895 and 2025 is 94.1°F. So the city’s average high temperature so far this month has been almost as high as the mean of all prior daily records. That is absurd.” [The Global Warmer]
https://x.com/TheGlobalWarmer/status/2037723590414508276
“Record March heat accelerates peak of wildflower bloom in Death Valley National Park…
“The National Park Service reported that lower elevation flowers have already begun setting seed following intense heat and high winds, while the National Weather Service reported that hundreds of daily temperature records were set or tied across parts of the region.”
“This Year’s US Wildfires Have Already Set Records That Could Foreshadow a Smoky, Fiery Summer.
“Recently released data show how drought, paltry Western snows and unseasonable heat, all exacerbated by climate change, could be priming the nation for a long wildfire season.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27032026/us-wildfires-already-setting-records-this-year/
“White sharks clinging to Southern California coast after warm winter, marine biologist says…
“After a young white shark was spotted off the Newport Beach coast, a renowned marine biologist warned Southern California residents that many more sightings could happen by the end of summer. “It is gearing up to be a sharky summer,” said Chris Low…”
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/losangeles/news/white-sharks-southern-california-marine-biologist/
“Starvation appears to be the primary cause behind a recent increase in dead and debilitated seabirds washing up along California’s coast…
“Wildlife officials said most of the birds examined in recent months have been younger animals found severely underweight, often with secondary issues such as fungal respiratory infections, heavy parasite loads, or injuries.”
“As waters around Alaska warm, algal toxins are turning up in new places in the food web.
“Over the past two summers, a pair of remote and treeless volcanic islands in the eastern Bering Sea broadcast signals of climate change danger in the marine ecosystem that feeds Alaska residents and supports much of the state’s economy.”
“Pittsburgh area hit by flooding as it breaks record for rainfall in March.
“Downpours overnight led to flooding across the Pittsburgh area. It’s now the rainiest March on record for Pittsburgh, and more rain is expected Monday.”
“Sharks in the Bahamas test positive for caffeine, painkillers and even cocaine, study finds.
“Sharks in the Bahamas are consuming substances including caffeine, painkillers and even cocaine, according to a new study by marine scientists who say it could potentially impact the animals’ health and behavior.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cocaine-caffeine-painkillers-sharks-bahamas-study/
“Deadly heat stress conditions are already occurring.
“Heat stress limits for human survivability have been previously defined by a 6-hour exposure to a wet-bulb temperature of 35oC. However, the recently developed physiology-based HEAT-Lim model demonstrates that environmental heat stress thresholds may be cooler and drier than previously thought.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-70485-1
“As the World Warms, Researchers Warn That Many Ecosystems Are Nearing a Point of No Return…
““The biggest picture is that we’re sadly already starting to cross climate tipping points, and the risk of crossing others increases with every fraction of a degree of global warming,” says Tim Lenton, University of Exeter climate scientist and lead author of the Global Tipping Points Report.”
“Everyday foods are the hidden drivers of deforestation…
“Common foods like maize, rice, and cassava are driving more forest loss than many export crops. These are everyday staples, grown and eaten locally, often without much attention… These staple crops are grown across many countries, not just in a few hotspots. Their impact spreads over wide areas, making the problem harder to spot and manage.”
https://www.earth.com/news/everyday-foods-are-the-hidden-drivers-of-deforestation/
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
Well now, back in the 70s here in the US a popular commercial on TV featured a woman saying “You can’t fool Mother Nature” and the announcer correcting her with “It’s not butter, but margarine” …
Here is my song to Mother Nature today…sorry we humans tried our best to fool ya..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOK4U_pSxGA
Sad Eyes
Music: Robert John Pedrick…one reflecting my feeling today about it all. We all know what’s coming and it ain’t pretty
Thanks for the song. Appropriate. Here’s what I’ve been listening to with a similar vibe, just written over 300 years earlier.
Víkingur Ólafsson playing Bach. I think it’s a weird video but the music is sublime.
https://youtu.be/h3-rNMhIyuQ
We humans did a few good things.
Both great music 🙂
Thank you, Cassandra, for the link. It’s very beautiful. I printed out the sheet music right away and played it. I still need to study it a bit more, but it’s quite manageable.
As I play, I look out over the mountains, where there’s still a touch of spring snow. The weather isn’t particularly nice. But I haven’t seen those mysteriously dressed people yet 🙂 And I probably won’t, either.
What a lovely skill it must be to play the piano. I foolishly balked at lessons when I was a kid.
Cassandra, that is a very elegant piece.
Vince, Robert John sounds like he is inspired by the Bee Gees – no bad thing. This was the first ever track where Barry Gibb turned on that iconic falsetto:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wRM-t7wvF0&list=RD5wRM-t7wvF0&start_radio=1
Zip, I did the same. Started learning it today! 🎹 ❤️
Thank you for the video, Cassandra, I listened to the whole performance, calmed me down a bit, beautiful
A Pittsburgh article followed by the return of the cocaine sharks? Easter came early.
By the way today is a climate thread
Thanks, John. That’s amended. I found an article that answers some of the questions readers might have about these sharks:
“Warm weather and free drugs? Lucky sharks. Listen, this is serious. The scientists responsible think that the cocaine either came from drainage from illegal cocaine manufacturing labs, or from the excrement of cocaine users that entered the waters in the form of untreated sewage.
“Tell you what, sharks must go absolutely bonkers on coke. The scientists were unable to discern any behavioural changes in the sharks, but they do think that it is affecting their eyesight, which makes them less efficient hunters, which means that they will almost certainly die young…
“That’s actually a bit of a bummer. This whole thing is a bit of a bummer. And it’s happening everywhere. In Hampshire, untreated sewage entering the sea has led to a surge of crabs, shrimp, oysters, limpets and worms with traces of cocaine, amphetamine, MDMA and antidepressants in their systems.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/23/cocaine-sharks-why-sea-creatures-are-swimming-in-drug-tainted-waters
Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin is detailed and comprehensive this week, well worth the read IMO. A few choice quotes and the link:
The crisis of confidence and the run on “private credit” continues to gain momentum.
Repeating a fundamental point, it’s sudden fear for perceived safe “money” – as opposed to risky loans/instruments – that is the domain of panics and financial crises.
Markets Friday began to accept the seriousness of an unfolding predicament not readily amenable to Trump and Fed “puts.”
https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2026/03/weekly-commentary-lacking-good-scenario.html
Thanks, Flippr. That is a great rundown.
Here’s a great website, be sure to scroll down for many helpful dashboards. Have a good weekend C&E’ers and thanks Pano for another week of hard work.
The Fuel Clock is an initiative of the Taxpayers’ Union, built to provide independent, real-time insight into New Zealand’s fuel security. Official fuel data is often delayed and incomplete. By combining Government stock figures with live shipping and market data, the Fuel Clock gives a clearer, up-to-date picture of risk — so Kiwis aren’t left in the dark. This isn’t about alarmism. It’s about transparency, and making sure the public has access to the information that matters.
https://www.fuelclock.nz/
interesting. Wish that kind of data was available for more countries
You are welcome.
There must be a fair chance now that the Football World Cup becomes a dangerous fiasco. Anything from Trump interference such as arresting the referee when the US lose a match, declaring war or cancelling the tournament when they are knocked out, banning Nato/non-white/non-Christian countries, ICE Gestapo presence at immigration and matches, visa issues, expelling non-compliant reporters etc.; to low/zero attendance, MAGA militiamen versus supporter confrontations, weather chaos, travel chaos, stranded passengers, terrorist infiltration within fan groups …
The clearest sign that we are in the collapse denouement will be when the Olympics or World Cup is cancelled because of economics and politics and, when it does happen, which could be this summer, it will be seen by most as a minor issue compared to where the next meal is coming from or whether the emergency services are likely to turn up when called.
I get the impression that there is a rising understanding among mainstream commentators that the loss of the Hormuz oil means we are more than slightly fucked. Not so much with the most blinkered who can think only in terms of left versus right politics, and no-one seems able to extrapolate forward to what happens when all the oil exports have been used up, but something is changing.
Here are a couple of songs about refugees and migrants as the world is about to have a whole lot more of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QBQQavmsyo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbhIuHOj1Gc
Also the Royal Scam is pretty good, “see the glory”.
p.s. the GFS keeps forecasting temperatures to 1.8 anomaly – I’ve noticed that just about every day the first run has the highest temperature and that falls by .1 to .15 in the next two (no idea why, maybe just a recent coincidence), but each day is gradually higher and it looks like we aren’t going to fall below 1.5 for some time ahead given the record SSTs. Also a couple of articles above pointing at approaching major biome collapses, which will be an unarguable point of no return.
George, I recall that the 2016 Rio Olympics were in jeopardy for a while due to an outbreak of Zika. The 2020 Tokyo Olympics were postponed due to Covid. The 2024 Paris Olympics went ahead, although some swimming events were cancelled due to faecal bacteria in the Seine. 🤢
Those are great tracks. This is the only migrant-related one I can think of:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNnfNQQSZbA&list=RDsNnfNQQSZbA&start_radio=1
Detournement spectaculaire today from the Duke of Lent, Sussex University’s director of Student Hopium Timothy Lenton, trotted out by the Audubon Society to issue his one-hit bullshit wonder “Positive Tipping Points (That’s What the World Needs Today, Hey,Hey).”
Just like the denialist Saudi-governed IPCC tried to turn “Overshoot” from the extinction of humanity into a positive term of “Overshoot (Then Fall Back and Win).”
One word they, the corporate forces of idiocy, have not managed to perform a PR detournement upon: extinction. And there’s no Top 40 happy-clappy hit for that condition of permanent death.
So, Martin, we humans be what is called a “one hit wonder”🤯🧐?
Probably a splash in the pan..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABMYCuemh_c
Maybe just need a second chance?
Yeah right
10 FLOP SONGS from the 70s That Turned Into HITS
That’s DEEP – the perfect epitaph for late boomers.
Humans – the ultimate one-hit wonder.
You should patent that and start cranking out the T-Shirts, VPK – I’ll wear one to my upcoming Yacht Rock concert.
Humans, good for one advanced, highly technological civilization, and…
That’s it, never to be heard from again.
“Humans – the ultimate one-hit wonder.”
But what a mad, psychedelic supernova of a hit.
Vince, re the second song on your YouTube clip, I actually met Eric Clapton in the 90’s. He asked me what music I was into. I told him Suzanne Vega. He looked a little disappointed. 😂
“A mad, psychedelic supernova of a hit” – so you’re saying humanity is essentially The Crazy World of Arthur Brown –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzHtePuz13U
The God of Hellfire, indeed, as humanity burns its own crazy world to ashes.
Martin, I second that nomination and perfect tune for us crazies. I remember that song on the radio. In 1968 as a 10 year old kid. Kinda of wild yet creepy, now I know who sang it.
PS Attended a No Kings Rally here in South Florida and it was crowded and peacefulk lots of old boomers like myself wih colorful signs, music and chants.
Just like the many others…why have they stopped this nuts?
Martin, that is 👌.
“You fought hard and you saved and earned
But all of it’s going to burn”
He was a one-hit wonder, too.
My little brother keeps me going. Good kid but a little slow in the head secondary to medical treatments he received as a a child. Kept him alive so I guess it’s as good as it gets. Then after that he bumped his head. Is a sandwich short of a picnic but it’s hard to tell. If I go before him he’s gonna have the biggest food cache you ever seen. Not the kinda guy you leave a gun to, though. Would be quite the post apocalyptic sight to come across my bro with 30 years worth of food preps and watching Welcome Back Kotter and Three’s Company DVDs. Perhaps the guy I leave the guns to will keep an eye on him for me.
FWIW the only reason I was able to sign up for national service out of high school is cuz I knew my family of origin was looked after. If they weren’t then I wouldn’t ‘ave. I woulda stayed home. Wasn’t as much a flag cult in those days. It was transactional. Stasi was the bad guys. Now Stasi is just down the block.
I hope to out live my brother Wouldn’t know it by looking at me. What a blessing it is to have made it to now.
Survivalist, I hope you and your brother make it through the bottleneck. Goodness knows being a carer is hard enough without having to factor in the looming collapse of civilisation.
I try not to give it too much thought but of course one of my anxieties is dying and leaving my youngest to cope alone in a world falling apart.
Cheers Pan, my bro stays with me now, secondary to that fall and bump on the head. I feel that those who are collapse aware and with disabled family are facing a lot of worry about passing away and leaving their vulnerable kin behind. Hell, even in a non collapse condition the thought of dying and leaving disabled behind must be a worry. Maybe I’ll start a longterm respite enclave and go by the handle Mother Teresa. See how it shakes out. Would be an interesting go.
Survivalist, Pano, thanks for sharing your feelings about family and younger people.
Our boys, like Truth Wizard, are in their 30’s. They know things are a complete cluster but, unlike TW, haven’t gone further down the rabbit hole. Neither has or wants kids so that’s good I guess.
Meh…
Yep good
One month into WW3 and I’ve gained 10 pounds. Whatever.
Quark’s latest is titled “Scenario 3. The collapse of the systems.”
Google translated as usual, no images today:
At the beginning of the attack on Iran, I published this post analyzing three possible scenarios. In the first, the US was successful and Iran surrendered after losing its entire leadership. The conflict lasted barely a week. In the second scenario, Iran held out for a while, oil prices reached $100, and after several weeks of fighting, Iran finally gave in due to widespread exhaustion. In the third scenario, Iran resisted until it caused a market crash. I considered the first scenario the most likely, but…
In the comments I was honest and said that it was a biased opinion, because I didn’t want to see scenario three even in a painting.
And although we are still in scenario two (the stock markets have not fallen much and the price of oil is still around $100), it can no longer be denied that some who bet from the beginning on scenario three, are going to be right in the end.
And what is scenario three?
It signifies a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a protracted war, a possible ground intervention, and ultimately, the collapse of systems (market crash).
We have not yet reached that point, but despite Trump’s boasting (we have won the war), there is no end in sight in the short term.
For now, the closure of the Strait has given way to the control of Hormuz, with a procedure that Escobar explains in this article .
“ To obtain authorization from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps , a tanker must pay a toll: $2 million per vessel.
This is how it works.
You make contact with an agent linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The agent transmits essential information to the IRGC: vessel ownership, national flag, cargo manifest, destination, crew list, and AIS transponder data.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps conducts background checks. If you have no ties to the United States, are not transporting cargo related to Israel, and your flag does not belong to any country considered an “aggressor,” you’re in. Japan and South Korea, for example, have not yet been authorized.
Then you pay the toll. In cash, in whatever currency you have, but preferably in yuan. Or in cryptocurrency.
It’s a complex mechanism. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps uses multiple addresses; bridges between blockchains to connect with other networks; over-the-counter trading desks in jurisdictions far beyond U.S. reach; and integration with all kinds of yuan settlement channels.
After the toll is paid, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issues a VHF radio authorization with a specific time slot linked to a narrow 8-kilometer (5-mile) nautical corridor through Iranian territorial waters, between Qeshm and the small island of Larak, where the IRGC Navy can visually identify your vessel. You may set sail. You do not need an escort vessel.
All of the above applies, for now, to tankers from China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Malaysia, Iraq, Bangladesh, and Russia. Some do not have to pay the full toll. Others receive exemptions through agreements between governments (as in Sri Lanka and Thailand, both considered “friendly nations”). And some pay nothing at all .
The US has a difficult task ahead.
Iran could declare victory and withdraw from the region, but it has already stated that it will maintain the toll to recoup its war expenses and losses. The Gulf monarchies (primarily Saudi Arabia and the UAE) do not want to leave Iran in control, and once the conflict has begun, they want it to end by stripping Iran of its prerogative in the area.
The alternative certainly involves troops on the ground in a desperate attempt to regain control of the strait, with its variations (attacking Kharg Island, to prevent the export of Iranian oil and be able to negotiate with something firm, attacking the strait itself in the Iranian zone, etc.), but it is clear that this option carries a lot of risk.
The most important thing is to avoid the destruction of energy systems, and that would be jeopardized if they proceed with a ground intervention, especially since the Houthis have already entered the war, attacking Israel. If they also control the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia’s diversion to avoid the Strait of Hormuz will be seriously undermined, leading to a worsening of the conflict.
We are entering the fifth week of restrictions on the movement of oil, LNG, fertilizers, and helium. A new phase is now beginning, because almost all the oil in transit has been unloaded and there is nothing left behind. The storage capacity of ships from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela is also disappearing, and only the strategic reserves and inventories of each country are maintaining supplies. But some countries, like India, are already experiencing serious problems . As the days go by, the number of affected countries will grow until it reaches the West (Australia is one example).
Market control is beginning to fade, and this past week, stock markets and the bond market have begun to suffer from selling pressure, although they have not yet suffered serious collapses and are holding reference levels, but they are already threatening to collapse at any moment (it would be the beginning of scenario three).
An important point.
Until now, Trump has used his comments regarding the negotiations as a “cure-all,” calming any incipient stock market declines and oil price increases. But his latest attempt on Thursday (extending the negotiations for another ten days) had little effect, and the market’s initial gains from the “news” quickly vanished. It seems he no longer has the same impact because markets are beginning to scrutinize Trump’s statements, and he can’t keep repeating the same thing only to have it turn out to be false.
This week is important. Not decisive, because it could drag on for a couple more weeks, but the situation is extremely tense and could fall apart. Once the selling panic sets in, it’s difficult to stop.
I’ll leave you with a lesser-known consequence of the Hormuz “closure”: the problems facing the pharmaceutical industry due to its high dependence on oil, a fact that remains largely unknown to the general public.
The case of India (AI Aid) is important to know .
Manufacturing a drug is a process much closer to the oil industry than we usually imagine. It’s not just about “mixing powders,” but a profound chemical transformation that depends on energy and hydrocarbons at every stage.
Below, details of the supply chain and the impact of an energy crisis on a giant like India.
1. The Drug Manufacturing Chain
Manufacturing is divided into two main stages: chemical (fine chemicals) and pharmaceutical (formulation) .
A. Obtaining Raw Materials and Precursors (Dependence on Oil)
It all starts at the refinery. Oil and natural gas don’t just power the trucks; they are the source of the carbon atoms that make up the medicine.
Basic petrochemicals: Benzene, toluene, xylene and ethylene are obtained.
Chemical Intermediates: These are transformed into more complex molecules (phenols, anilines). For example, benzene is the direct ancestor of aspirin and paracetamol.
B. Synthesis of the API (Active Ingredient)
This is where the chemical “magic” happens. The API is the component that heals (e.g., pure Ibuprofen).
Use of Solvents: For the reactions to occur, solvents such as acetone, ethanol, or methane derivatives are needed. Most of these come from natural gas.
Energy intensive: The reactions require high temperatures and constant pressures, generated mostly by gas or electricity derived from hydrocarbons.
C. Formulation and Conditioning
The API is mixed with excipients (lactose, starch) to create the tablet or syrup.
Packaging: The blister pack containing the tablets is made of PVC and aluminum . PVC is a plastic derived directly from petroleum.
Cold Chain Logistics: Many medications (such as insulins or vaccines) require an uninterrupted cold chain that consumes enormous amounts of energy.
2. India’s Critical Role and the Hormuz Threat
India is known as the “pharmacy of the world .” It produces 20% of global generic medicines and 60% of vaccines. However, it has an Achilles’ heel: it imports 85% of the oil it consumes.
What happens if the Strait of Hormuz is closed?
The Strait of Hormuz is the bottleneck through which 20-30% of the world’s oil passes. If it closes, India will face an immediate crisis on two fronts:
1. Stoppage of Chemical Synthesis (The “Gas Cut-Off”)
The production of APIs in India is extremely sensitive to the price of energy .
If natural gas and oil become scarce or triple in price, chemical synthesis plants in states like Gujarat or Andhra Pradesh would have to shut down due to lack of profitability or lack of inputs (solvents and petrochemical precursors).
Result: India would stop producing the basic components of antibiotics and painkillers for the entire planet.
2. The Domino Effect in Packaging and Plastics
Without oil, there are no polymers.
Even if India had the powdered medication (API), it couldn’t package it. There wouldn’t be enough plastic for the bottles, PVC sheets for the blister packs, or resins for the asthma inhalers.
3. Global Consequences of an India without Oil
If India suffers shortages due to a blockade in Hormuz, the impact is humanitarian and global :
Global Shortage: Countries in Africa, Latin America and Europe could see their low-cost generic drugs disappear.
Pharmaceutical Inflation: The price of basic medicines such as paracetamol or metformin (for diabetes) could skyrocket by 500% due to lack of supply and logistical costs.
Healthcare System Failure: Hospitals rely on serums and vials that are essentially made of plastic and chemical derivatives. Without energy to power India’s factories, the supply chain breaks down in less than three months.
Key Fact: India relies on China for 70% of its chemical intermediates, but depends on the Middle East (via the Strait of Hormuz) for the energy that powers its own factories. It is a double and fragile dependency.
What is the current situation in India?
The situation is critical and the main industry associations in India have already issued emergency statements and formal warnings to the Government during this month of March 2026.
The Indian pharmaceutical industry is not only worried about transportation, but also about an operational “survival crisis” due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and the conflict in the Middle East.
Here are the key points of the warnings issued by associations (such as the Himachal Drug Manufacturers Association and industry leaders):
1. Explosion of Costs in Raw Materials (APIs and Solvents)
The associations have reported that, in just 15 days, the price of basic materials has risen between 200% and 300% .
The case of Paracetamol: The cost of the base active ingredient has gone from ₹250 to ₹450 per kg .
Petrochemical Solvents: Substances such as acetone and methanol (derivatives of gas and oil) have increased by 20-30% in direct import cost, but their physical availability is beginning to run short.
2. The NPPA’s “Regulatory Trap”
This is the manufacturers’ loudest cry for help. In India, the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) imposes maximum retail prices on essential medicines.
The problem: Manufacturers are paying triple for inputs (due to expensive oil), but the law prohibits them from raising the final price of the pill to the public.
As a result, many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have warned that they will stop producing because manufacturing each dose generates direct losses for them.
3. Energy Shortages in Plants (Industrial LPG)
It’s not just a shortage of oil for the chemical industry; there’s a shortage of fuel for the machines.
A shortage of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) , which is used in industrial boilers for the manufacture of medicines, has been reported .
Without gas, the production lines for syrups and the sterilization of injectables come to a halt. Industry associations have warned that this could lead to a migration of workers if factories have to close temporarily.
4. The Threat of “Micro-components”
A recent statement from B2B leaders highlights an invisible but lethal risk: plastic and rubber .
Even if they have the drug, there is an imminent stock shortage of vial stoppers, IV bag plastics, and PVC blisters .
It is estimated that hospitals could run out of short-lived supplies (such as IV bags) within 4 to 6 weeks if alternative routes are not enabled.
Emergency measures requested from the Government:
Faced with this paralysis, the industry has formally requested:
Price ceilings for chemical suppliers: To prevent raw material distributors from speculating on prices.
Intervention by the Ministry of Health: To make retail prices more flexible and prevent the financial collapse of pharmaceutical companies.
“Air Bridge” routes: To bring critical supplies from Saudi Arabia or Oman avoiding the blocked strait, even though this makes the product even more expensive.
In short, the Indian industry has gone from “warning” to “state of alarm ,” indicating that the “world’s cheap pharmacy” model is unsustainable with oil above $80-82 and the Hormuz routes closed.
Therefore, we have a pricing problem, and a little further down the line, expect the problem of medicine shortages…
I’ve gained weight too, flippr. I don’t know how much because I’m not getting on a scale.
Sure looks like “scenario three” to me.
I had heard about drug shortages coming down the line but he really breaks it down. I have bought a few Rx direct from India in the past. Currently I’m buying a few extra of things I use sometimes like oregano oil capsules (not from India, but mediterranean). Not having 30 years of preps at hand like Survivalist, it should see me through to the end.
I know a lot of people on drugs like metformin, thyroid meds, antidepressants. The slower collapse unfolds, the uglier it will be.
I saw the below statement from Elon’s twitter. Can’t remember who as I took a screenshot that cut off the name. I think was from last week. Anyway, FWIW….
“Oil prices are no longer the biggest threat to markets. It has become increasingly clear that bond markets will dictate just how long President Trump can continue increase pressure in the Iran War. The 10Y Note Yield is now up ~45 basis points since the war began on February 28th. This is in-line with the rapid surge seen around “Liberation Day” in April 2025. As the 10Y Note Yield surged above 4.50% in April 2025, President Trump began floating a potential tariff “pause.” And, once the 10Y Yield broke above 4.60%, President Trump officially implemented a 90-day pause on his reciprocal tariffs on April 9th, 2025.
With the 10Y Note Yield now up to 4.40%, we believe the 4.50% to 4.60% range will be the “line in the sand” again. The US economy cannot handle a 5% 10Y Note Yield.”
John Mearsheimer and others show that “scenario three” is worse: It’s just a few steps away from full-out nuclear war.
And Hegseth the Terrible has the X-tian Right whispering apocalyptic secrets in his ear.
A simple example of a “Plan B”:
My partner depends on a continuous glucose monitor to manage his Type 1 diabetes: you have to know where your blood sugar stands before you inject insulin.
But these monitors are imported from . . . Malaysia. And they’re made of . . . plastic . . . and computer components.
What happens if he can’t get them?
We’ve consulted with his PCP and have ordered a batch of the “old fashioned” test strips to monitor blood sugar, the old stick method. He already has the sticker and tips, the machine and the batteries: He just needs the strips.
So he’s getting them. A bunch of them.
Mike B and Cassandra, ya, meds are a whole other concern. For Mike’s partner, even “old fashioned” glucose test strips are complex and will get sucked up in a hurry. Never mind insulin itself. Holy shite.
Some thematically appropriate “entertainment” for the moment: My favorite scholar of the Bronze Age Collapse:
https://youtu.be/Dgl7gtLS1i4?si=3HDLug9tYpulHt04
Thanks for that. Is a good one.