Huge thanks to my February sponsor, John Rember, author of the three-book series Journal of the Plague Years, a psychic survival guide for humanity’s looming date with destiny, shaped by his experiences living through the pandemic in his native Idaho. Thoughtful, wry and humane, Journal 1 is a pleasure.
“Chance of El Niño forming in Pacific Ocean may push global temperatures to record highs in 2027.
“Experts told the Guardian it was too early to be confident, but there were signals in the spread of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific that suggested an El Niño could form in 2026.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/08/global-weather-el-nino-pacific-ocean-high-temperatures-2027
“Will the Pacific Decadal Oscillation turn neutral (or positive) this year?
“If the negative PDO was natural variability and has *relatively* limited regional and global heat uptake, the next positive (=not good) PDO will lead to further acceleration of global warming.” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/2020481216810492411
“In the Arctic, the major climate threat of black carbon is overshadowed by geopolitical tensions
“A coalition of nations and environmental groups is lobbying the International Maritime Organization to create regulations around black carbon, or soot, that spews from ships and blankets parts of glaciers and snow.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/arctic-donald-trump-iceland-greenland-reykjavik-b2916469.html
“Hundreds of flood warnings and alerts in place across UK following days of non-stop rain.
“On Thursday, the Met Office announced that rain had fallen every day of 2026 in south-west England and South Wales.
Both have experienced a far wetter than average January, with 50% more On Thursday, the Met Office announced that rain had fallen every day of 2026 in south-west England and South Wales.”
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/flood-rain-warning-alert-uk-5HjdS2D_2/
“Farmers report ‘catastrophic’ crop damage as Storm Marta sweeps Spain and Portugal.
“Farmers in Spain warned on Saturday that torrential rains and high winds had left fields submerged and caused millions of euros worth of damage to crops, as Spain and Portugal braced for more extreme weather.”
“Flash floods sweep northern Morocco, killing at least four including toddler…
“Provinces across northwestern Morocco have been battered by heavy rainfall over the past week. The national weather service forecast further bad weather through Tuesday.”
“NORTH AFRICA HEAT WAVE
Historic and unprecedented heat wave for early February.
“36.9C In Guezzam ALGERIA
34.2C Ghat LIBYA… This is just the beginning,this heat wave will cross all Asia from Middle East to end up in Japan.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2020162012827800061
“Heat with no end: climate model sets out an unbearable future for parts of Africa.
“This is not just a slight warming; it is a fundamental change in how people will have to survive on the continent. Once regions in Africa enter a state of almost continuous heatwaves, the human body will have no window of time to recover.”
https://www.modernghana.com/news/1469826/heat-with-no-end-climate-model-sets-out-an-unbear.html
“Today’s weather: Severe storms, extreme heat, and fire danger across South Africa.
“South Africa faces a day of hazardous weather, with severe thunderstorms in the east, extreme heat in the interior, and high fire danger across multiple provinces.”
“‘Our children are next’ fear Kenyans as drought wipes out livestock.
“In drought-hit northeastern Kenya, villagers have been forced to drag their dead livestock to distant fields for burning to keep the stench of death and scavenging hyenas away from their homes.”
https://addisstandard.com/our-children-are-next-fear-kenyans-as-drought-wipes-out-livestock/
“HISTORIC MIDDLE EAST HEAT WAVE:
“Records of Hottest February day in history pulverized: 33.6C Sedom ISRAEL; 33.4C Ghor El Safi JORDAN. Records also at Jericho PALESTINE.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2020577063653245426
“Heavy rains trigger deadly floods in Syria, emergency teams mobilized.
“Syria’s Ministry of Emergency and Disaster Management said Sunday its teams continued large-scale response operations late Saturday after heavy rainfall triggered flash floods across several western and northwestern provinces, causing casualties, displacement and widespread damage to civilian areas.”
“Forests are changing fast and scientists are deeply concerned…
“A massive global analysis of more than 31,000 tree species reveals that forests are becoming more uniform, increasingly dominated by fast-growing “sprinter” trees, while slow-growing, long-lived species are disappearing. These slower species act as the backbone of forest ecosystems…”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/02/260208233836.htm
“Benguet hit by early forest fires [Philippines].
“Benguet and other parts of Cordillera are once again entering a season of forest fires, underscored by a blaze that hit Mount Posdo in Mankayan in Benguet last week—the latest in a string of fires recorded in the area over the past three years.”
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2179212/benguet-hit-by-early-forest-fires/
“‘Basyang’ dumps record rainfall as shear line worsens.
“Tropical storm ‘‘Basyang’’ has dumped extremely rare volumes of rain that exceeded Northern Mindanao’s 100-year return period and contributed to flooding in Iligan City due to overwhelmed rivers and drainage systems.”
“Darkwaves research allows scientists to measure impact of ‘underwater blackouts’ on marine life [Australia]…
“As recovery efforts continue, Mr Ridgley said watching Cyclone Mitchell develop along WA’s Pilbara coast was making him anxious.”
“Avian flu behind mass skua die-off in Antarctica, scientists say.
“H5N1 was detected at three sites and diagnosed as the cause of death of nearly all dead skuas at Beak Island. The birds rapidly died of multi-organ necrosis (tissue death).
“Torrential rain not normally seen at this time of year left at least 13 people dead across Colombia this week, according to officials.
“The country has experienced a surge in rainfall after a cold front pushed south from the north of the Americas towards Colombia’s Caribbean coastline.”
“El Salvador declares national emergency: more than 600 forest fires reported so far this year.
“Reports from the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) indicate that the presence of numerous hot spots and the abundance of dry vegetation have created a conducive environment for the fire’s expansion.”
“This winter’s snow drought is shaping up to be the worst on record for the Upper Colorado River Basin…
“Both Colorado and Utah are experiencing their lowest snowpack on record. In the Colorado River headwaters, snow-water equivalent is just 54% of median…”
“Western Canada Glaciers Record Second Worse Ice Loss…
““We have to understand that it’s not a question of if the glaciers are going to disappear, they are going to disappear. What we’re finding is that these glaciers are disappearing much faster than previously projected.””
https://planetski.eu/blog/western-canada-glaciers-record-second-worse-ice-loss/
“Breaking News! Code Yikes!
“The 36-month running average for total column precipitable water just hit a new record high … for the 15-th consecutive month! The Climate 8-ball is moving to higher ground.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2020518426842722698
“The 3-year running mean for the global surface temperature anomaly is now at 1.53°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC pre-industrial baseline.
“Meanwhile, the Climate 8-ball is snookered again.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2020136061297361348
“There May Be No Turning Back This Climate Crisis.
“…there is a growing fear that climate change in the future won’t, as it has until now, happen gradually. It will happen suddenly, as formerly stable planetary systems transgress tipping points—thresholds beyond which things cannot be put back together again.”
“‘Stark warning’: pesticide harm to wildlife rising globally, study finds.
“Synthetic chemicals that kill pests have increased the productivity of farmland, allowing more food to be grown on the same area, but have harmed the ecosystems in which they are used.”
“Economic growth is still heating the planet. Is there any way out?
“Rising GDP continues to mean more carbon emissions and wider damage to the planet. Can the two be decoupled?”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
Wow, just a quick skim confirms WASF. In addition, corals are done:
https://www.si.edu/newsdesk/releases/half-worlds-coral-reefs-suffered-major-bleaching-global-heatwave
The Mother Jones piece “There May Be No Turning Back This Climate Crisis.” Has notably minimal hopium. Awareness of reality grows (slowly).
Good grief
Thanks Cass, agreed, Team Rapid is growing slow but sure, you and I are two of the hopium free captains. I’m not sure how anyone could ever describe what’s happening as gradual.
BTW, your dominoes comment the other day was a doozy, I’ve been getting a lot of mileage out of that one, thanks.
Hang in there…
Thank you so much! It’s good to know my thoughts are helpful here and there. I certainly value highly every one’s comments here!!
That was linked before – to the original Yale360 article – and the problem is that every time they use overshoot instead of, say, transgression they are implying a temporary situation that will be corrected, so its subtle but hopium nevertheless.
“There May Be No Turning Back This Climate Crisis.”
Stunned! Stunned! I tell you. Who would have thunk it, after the millions of words in peer reviewed studies? This species of fools may not go extinct in 2026 but they may wish they would.
Many may not learn to “Use it up, wear it out, make it do..” but they will likely not avoid doing without. Would that be a paradigm shift? 😉
I think I’ll repeat as no climate scientist seems to be looking at this – a 36 month trailing average lags actuality on a rising curve, so we passed 1.5 around winter 24/25. A linear increase in earth energy imbalance would give a parabolic temperature rise and that would be a better extrapolation than a straight line. Actually it is probably worse than that because ocean stratification means the heat is going towards increasing the temperature in the atmosphere and a slowly reducing mass of ocean water (another complication is how is the trend of how much heat is used to permanently melt ice each year, which I can’t find summarised). There is almost certainly an exponential component on top of the quadratic curve from the temperature/stratification and temperature/cloud feedbacks.
Good article on electric transmission lines and what needs to happen. No mention of most of the required materials peaking.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2026-02-09/a-million-miles-of-transmission-lines/?mc_cid=56216530d7&mc_eid=38d6118742
I don’t think the author figures all the lines that will need to replaced due to age. Nobody ever includes that. Here is Dan Occonor from a Nate Hagans video:
Dan O’Connor, a national and homeland security expert with the Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS), has highlighted deferred maintenance as a critical, systemic threat to United States infrastructure, security, and stability.
Based on his analysis, here are the key points regarding his views on delayed maintenance in the U.S.:
Immense Financial Scope: O’Connor has indicated that deferred maintenance costs in the U.S. have reached staggering levels, citing figures as high as $158 trillion in aging infrastructure maintenance needs.
Good one. Glub glub!
I don’t know if this one’s been shared here before but it’s quite eye-opening:
“The Liquidation of India Ltd: Why the ‘World’s Largest Democracy’ is Actually a Lifeboat Operation
From Merey 16 to Groundwater Depletion: How the Colonial Elite are strip-mining the subcontinent before the lights go out.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/theuaob/p/the-liquidation-of-india-ltd-why
I liked that article except for the Russia-China stuff, which requires him to gloss over the question of Venezuela’s and Russia’s actual reserves. I mean sure Russia has oil so ipso facto fares better than India in the short term (5-10 yrs), and China’s renewables buildup might achieve an inferior version of the same, but let’s not pretend BRICS is fundamentally anything more than a renegotiation of the terms of surplus value extraction, i.e terms favourable to the elites of the second and third world.
If NATO and China-Russia break out in a war it will be because the current system of world trade shall run into the BRICK WALL of physical limits and climate change without the capacity to organize itself in a way that can adapt to them, not BRICS. So like WW1 except no transition to oil this time.
Excellent point!
Here is a bit more on electricity. For reference there are approximately 80 million existing transformers in the USA and 55% are beyond their time. I think China is at such a huge advantage when compared to the USA. Their infrastructure is so much younger. Of note, use with renewable energy cuts the life time of a transformer by 26%
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3342827/us-transformers-are-ageing-renewable-energy-could-make-things-worse-china-study-finds
Two fantastic posts Duke, thanks.
Latest article from Quark’s new substack (he’s phasing out his old blog, I linked to it yesterday but doing it again to spread the word):
https://rayonegro.substack.com/
“In August 2023, Liebherr deployed a fleet of four autonomous T 264 dump trucks in Western Australia to conduct real-world testing. This initiative, undertaken in partnership with Fortescue at its Christmas Creek mine , marked a significant milestone in the development of autonomous and sustainable vehicles for mining.”
[…]The investment, valued at approximately $4 billion , is part of a global order for 475 zero-emission machines, including trucks, 55 electric excavators, and 60 electric bulldozers. With this commitment, Fortescue expects to reduce its fuel costs by $300 million to $400 million annually and eliminate tens of millions of liters of diesel fuel consumption each year—a measure that will have a positive impact on both the company’s bottom line and its environmental performance.
[…]However, with the exception of Fortescue, major mining companies do not foresee implementing large-scale measures to decarbonize their diesel fleets before well into the 2030s. Numerous obstacles exist, including the limited number of electric truck manufacturers, the low volumes of biofuels currently available in Australia, and the lengthy lead times for the approval and construction of renewable energy projects.
It’s only behemoths like Fortescue that are in a position to swallow that investment, because some combination of vendor financing, carbon credits, profilicity and PR would cover the loss.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/horrific-temperature-anomalies-forecast-over-arctic-ocean.html?m=1
Wow he goes over how they downplayed how bad things are in arctic.
Heather B,
Thank you for the link–>excellent read! Also, my thanks to all the other commentors above. Yep, things are getting worse exponentially.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thanks Heather and Bob.