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“How is 2026 doing so far? Hotter than expected.
“The global mean surface temperature anomaly for January 1-8, 2026, was 1.60°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC pre-industrial baseline.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2010008942248898701
“Atmospheric physicists find error in widely cited Arctic snow cover observations…
“This metric is critical because among other roles it plays in Earth’s climate, snow reflects energy from the planet’s surface back into space… the new analysis by Chereque and her colleagues shows snow cover actually decreased by half a million square kilometers per decade, about half the size of Canada’s most populous province.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-01-atmospheric-physicists-error-widely-cited.html
“While most of the Arctic Ocean is predominately ice covered in January, the edges reveal warming at the ocean surface. Warming trends are particularly large in the North Atlantic and Davis Strait/Labrador Sea.
“Data from OISSTv2.1. For more info: arctic NOAA.” [Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3mc3zk4eagc2w
“‘The sea always wins’: Distress as coastal erosion tears away at homes [East Anglia, UK].
“Homes in Thorpeness that were deemed safe just before Christmas have now found themselves at threat, with a third demolition having taken place. The surge on January 2 had washed away the frontage of properties to the south of the village and had created a three metre drop.”
https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/25756240.photo-shows-thorpeness-coastal-erosion-storm-goretti/
“Tens of thousands of people across South East England are without water, as Kent County Council (KCC) declared a major incident.
“South East Water (SEW) blamed the outages on Storm Goretti and cold weather causing burst pipes and power cuts.” [Thousands of homes also still without power and water in Cornwall].
“‘Thousands of trees lost’ in Storm Goretti [Guernsey].
“Islanders are counting the cost after Storm Goretti brought wind speeds of 95mph (154km/h) on Thursday night. Andy McCutcheon, technical officer from Guernsey Trees for life (GTFL), said he estimated the number of trees lost in the storm was in the low thousands.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyzg922xddo
“Mallorca sea hits record-high temperatures in 2024–2025.
“The Mediterranean Sea has experienced surface temperatures consistently above the 1991–2020 average throughout 2024 and 2025, according to the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (Aemet). This prolonged period of elevated sea temperatures reflects widespread trends across European waters…”
“Water crisis hits Türkiye’s capital as drought, infrastructure issues deepen.
“Ankara is facing an ongoing water crisis as severe drought and crumbling infrastructure trigger daily outages across Türkiye’s capital, fueling widespread criticism of the city’s management. Dam reservoir levels have dropped to 1.12 percent and taps are being shut off for several hours a day…”
“Chad: Malnutrition is a silent crisis…
“At least 5.7 million people in Chad are facing malnutrition — including 3.6 million who are severely food insecure — in a context exacerbated by conflict, displacement, climate shocks and economic deterioration. This situation follows successive nutritional crises that particularly affect children.”
https://www.doctorswithoutborders.ca/chad-malnutrition-is-a-silent-crisis/
“Mangrove loss is making the Niger Delta more vulnerable…
“The Niger Delta region is also the heart of the country’s oil and gas industry. Decades of oil exploration and production have altered its landscape. Pipeline construction, dredging (when sand is dug out of the ground), oil spills and gas flaring (burning) have degraded mangrove habitats.”
“SOUTH AFRICA RECORD HEAT:
“123rd consecutive months when ZA breaks monthly heat records. After max. Temperatures up to 46C [114.8F], very hot nights followed. Last night Riversdale had by far its hottest night in history with a Minimum temperature of 24.5C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2010661082961203234
“Wildfires ravage parts of South Africa, damaging buildings and displacing thousands.
“South Africa’s Western Cape was still grappling with several wildfires across the province on Sunday, with some blazes remaining out of control while others had been extinguished.”
“Record heat in MOZAMBIQUE:
Exceptionally hot night (and humid): minimum temperatures up to 28.0C [82.4F] at Beira, which is the hottest night ever recorded in the town in climate history.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2010323663028207966
“Gaza: Storms worsen already dire humanitarian situation, UN warns.
“Briefing correspondents in New York, Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric reported that ongoing rainstorms are damaging and destroying fragile shelters, leaving large numbers of displaced people exposed to the cold.”
https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/01/1166747
“Jordan braces for extreme weather and flash floods.
“Strong winds may create dust storms in desert regions before rainfall and significantly reduce horizontal visibility. Authorities advised residents to avoid flood channels, secure loose objects, use heating safely, and exercise extreme caution while driving in mountainous areas.”
https://en.royanews.tv/news/66623
“CENTRAL ASIA WARM SPELL:
Exceptional warmth spreads and intensifies in Central Asia with temperatures typical of May and around 20C [68F] above average. Today temperatures reached up to +19C in KAZAKHSTAN at 1000m asl! Esenguly [Turkmenistan] had a minimum of 13.6C, almost 3C above the record of January hottest night (>1 century of data).”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2010376775130562797
“Climate Crises Erode Pakistan’s Land and People’s Resilience.
“Along the winding road to Babusar Top, a favourite summer tourist spot in northern Pakistan, there was once a thick forest that shielded the slopes and cooled the air. Today, these hillsides are bare, stripped of trees that took a century to mature.”
https://healthpolicy-watch.news/climate-crises-wear-away-at-pakistans-land-and-peoples-resilience/
“Himalayas bare and rocky after reduced winter snowfall, scientists warn.
“Much less winter snow is falling on the Himalayas, leaving the mountains bare and rocky in many parts of the region in a season when they should be snow-clad, meteorologists have said… Rising temperature also means what little snow falls melts very quickly…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyndv7zd20o
“Kashmir’s Chillai Kalan Loses Its Bite To Climate Change.
“The valley’s defining 40-day winter is becoming warmer and unpredictable, threatening water, crops, and a way of life woven around the cold. What was once a period of reliable, deep cold is now unpredictable, signalling profound shifts in the Himalayas and the lives they sustain.”
https://kashmirreader.com/2026/01/13/kashmirs-chillai-kalan-loses-its-bite-to-climate-change/
“Himachal Weather Update: Severe Rain Deficit, ‘Snow Drought’ Deepens Crisis as Crops and Water Sources Face Growing Stress.
“Himachal Pradesh is witnessing an alarming winter weather pattern, with a sharp fall in rainfall and snowfall pushing large parts of the state towards drought-like conditions. Meteorological data show that the state has received around 88 percent less rainfall than normal this winter…”
“Nellore farmers switch from chickpea to sorghum after repeated climate setbacks [SE India].
“After three consecutive years of climate-induced setbacks to the Rabi chickpea crop, farmers in Nellore district are increasingly turning to sorghum as a more resilient and economically viable option. Erratic rainfall, including excess rains and prolonged dry spells, has severely affected chickpea cultivation…”
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN ASIA. Record heat from Middle East to Japan. In CHINA records are already falling: 23.1C [73.6F] Changyang, January hottest day ever.
“Next days several thousands of records will fall all over Asia…”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2010710828249411984
“Heavy rain lashed Indonesia’s capital Jakarta on Monday, triggering floods that inundated dozens of neighborhoods and major roads, local media reported.
“The Jakarta Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) reported that flooding affected 22 neighborhood units in South Jakarta, North Jakarta and East Jakarta, while 33 roads across the city were submerged, according to state-run news agency Antara.”
“Floods Hit Several Indonesian Regions Over Past Two Days.
“The Indonesian National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) stated that several regions in Indonesia were hit by floods over the past two days. The Center for Operation Control (Pusdalops) report shows that hydrometeorological disasters occurred in Sumatra, West Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, and Java.”
https://en.tempo.co/amp/2079758/floods-hit-several-indonesian-regions-over-past-two-days
“A serious amount of rain’: central Queensland flooding could isolate some communities for months…
“More than a year’s rain fell in one week in some places, with stranded communities facing months of isolation… Clermont itself was cut off… Dotted across the state, other towns are being marooned by flood waters and landslips.”
“More than 500 structures destroyed in Victoria’s bushfires as 12 major blazes continue to burn…
“The State Control Centre (SCC) on Tuesday morning confirmed that while there were 12 major bushfires active across Victoria, many of which are expected to burn for days or weeks.”
“Thousands of flying foxes have perished in the heatwave that scorched south-east Australia last week, the largest mass mortality event for flying foxes since black summer.
“Extreme temperatures resulted in deaths in camps across South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales.”
“SOUTH AMERICA HEAT WAVES:
“Harsh heat in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. Temperatures >40C [104F] in most of the city, up to 41.0C at Seropedica Agro. More heat waves also keep sweeping Chile and Argentina Pampa and Patagonia, where wildfires are raging in a huge area.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2010795019654009191
“Wildfires scorch up to 52,000 acres in Argentina’s Patagonia.
“Uncontrolled wildfires have burned between 37,000 and 52,000 acres of native forest in Argentina’s Patagonia, according to the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and the Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego. The fires have forced mass evacuations…”
“A rare meteotsunami triggered a sudden giant wave in Argentina’s coastal towns, killing one person and injuring at least 35…
“He stressed the phenomenon is highly unusual for the region, calling it a kind of “mini tsunami” driven not by an earthquake, but by sudden changes in atmospheric pressure and strong winds.”
“A rare tornado swept through Greater Curitiba with winds of up to 180 km/h, destroying approximately 350 homes in São José dos Pinhais [Brazil]…
“Tornadoes are considered rare in the region, and this particular event drew attention for combining high intensity, widespread damage, and a well-defined trajectory within the metropolitan area.”
“CARIBBEAN RECORD HEAT:
“Fierce heat in Mexico, Central America and Caribbean. And record again in the US Virgin Islands: 89F/31.7C Charlotte Amalie AP (St Thomas) tied The Highest temperature ever recorded in the USVI in January.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2010169695153115163
“Minnesota woman dies after shark attack in US Virgin Islands [Warmer water temperatures increase sharks’ metabolism, leading them to process food faster and get hungry more often]…
“A shark recently killed a Minnesota woman by biting her arm off as she swam off the coast of the US Virgin Islands while on vacation, according to authorities and media reports.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/12/shark-attack-us-virgin-islands-minnesota-woman
“EXTRAORDINARY WARMTH:
“Historic event, one of the most extreme in North America history kicks off. Absolutely mind blowing MINIMUMS Temperatures in the 50s in The Dakotas, Montana and parts of Canada next days, typical of June.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2010709517076713610
“Portland’s record-breaking warm winter isn’t cooling down yet…
“Last December was the warmest on record for Portland, and as January marches on, the forecast calls for more days at well above normal temperatures. December’s average daily temperature was 47.4 degrees, nearly six degrees warmer than average.”
“Expect lots of snow melting, including at high elevations between British Columbia, Alberta, Montana.
“Rains + snow melting with the freezing line rising to absurd levels for winter (>3000m) can cause dangerous floods in British Columbia.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2010805556710391845
“Avalanche Tumbles Above Juneau As Residents Evacuate.
“A small avalanche was seen tumbling down from above Juneau, Alaska, on Friday. Residents had been warned to evacuate when temperatures began to warm and rain began to fall after record snowfall.”
https://weather.com/news/video/avalanche-juneau-evacuation
“In a sane world, this would be front page news everywhere. But it will hardly be covered anywhere.
“The North Pacific Ocean surface warmed over twice as much over the past 15 years than it did over the preceding 156 years. That’s an increase in warming rate of >2000%!”
[Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/2009991516987760693
“The upcoming westerly wind burst is forecast to break records in the West Pacific.
“Highly anomalous in both intensity and extent, it will send lots of very warm water eastward. This warmth will surface in the eastern Pacific in Feb. and March as the ocean races toward El Niño.” [Ben Noll]
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2010709599582912515
“Drop in ocean’s iron spells danger for seals, penguins, and whales.
“Global warming is changing ocean circulation, reducing the amount of iron delivered to the sea. This could hinder phytoplankton’s ability to grow, photosynthesise, ultimately reducing the food-supply for animals like krill, whales and seals according to new research.”
https://oceanographicmagazine.com/news/drop-in-ocean-iron-spells-danger-for-seals-penguins-whales/
“Oil Residues Can Travel Over 5,000 Miles on Ocean Debris.
“When oily plastic and glass, as well as rubber, washed onto Florida beaches in 2020, a community group shared the mystery online, attracting scientists’ attention. Working together, they linked the black residue-coated debris to a 2019 oil slick along Brazil’s coastline.”
“The anxiety of having kids in a climate crisis.
“About 40% of Australian women without kids say they are hesitant to have children because of climate change. Guardian Australia’s climate, environment and science assistant editor, Donna Lu, is among them. Reged Ahmad speaks to Donna about her anxiety – shared by many – about starting a family as global temperatures rise.” [podcast]
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
“To know, is to know that you know nothing. That is the meaning of true knowledge.”
– Plato
>>> Drop in ocean’s iron spells danger
Do we really have any idea what’s happening with plankton?
Flippr, that is a powerful quote. The ego loves certainty – the firm ground of labels, conclusions, opinions, identities… Admitting that you don’t know punctures that illusion of control, allowing space for higher knowledge or wisdom to come in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjqlpvcWGXQ
Re the plankton, acidification and overfishing are the obvious threats, but I imagine there are plenty.
“New research has incidentally discovered that microplastics may cause Antarctic krill to eject food more often than normal, causing the small crustacean to possibly miss feeding opportunities and, therefore, fail to sustain healthy energy levels.”
https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/environment-sustainability/microplastics-found-to-cause-antarctic-krill-to-eject-food-more-often-than-normal
HI Pan I did a piece on iron and overfishing if you are interested
https://substack.com/@tcrethers/p-176041032
The feed back loops into cloud creation, stratification and ocean warming through bioaerosol reductions are most interesting , especially as salt has a positive condensation coalescence so the reduced wind we saw in the heat anomaly and the .25 degree spike in 2024 may have a biological source.
I am currently looking into how the climate damage is being amplified by our interactions
https://substack.com/@tcrethers/p-183349789
I forgot to add how our road building effectively cuts and diverts down slope flow directing water from slow infiltration to quick drainage. 250 000km of farm forestry and municipal roads in Victoria alone diverting enough water to reduce down slope water by up to a third. With intelligent design we should be doing the opposite instead we seem blind to this amplification and wonder why we flood and burn.
Ted, my apologies – your comment was caught in moderation overnight. I think because it is a first time comment. It might be an idea to post again under today’s or tomorrow’s threads.
Although I do not live in the area highlighted in the linked youtube video, I found the video highly entertaining.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQlYZh0q_t8
Thanks, Curt. That looks like a soothing, bed-time watch.
Just read this excellent blog post by Erik Michaels:
https://problemspredicamentsandtechnology.blogspot.com/2026/01/fantasies-myths-and-fairy-tales-part.html?m=1
Where among other things he takes the following, hysterically technotopian article to the woodshed:
https://www.facebook.com/thesciencepulse/posts/pfbid0q3qDq414UG8w27JqudwukHvinHmpYucbot3Bo9tor21ru37b6VLujyCosZT3UygWl
“Finland is emerging as a global leader in sustainable urban heating by repurposing waste heat from data centers to warm residential and commercial buildings.
Several Finnish cities, including Helsinki and Espoo, have integrated this technology into their district heating systems, a network of underground pipes that distribute heat efficiently across neighborhoods.”
Maybe we can do this with the 2000% warmer ocean. Put all of that excess heat to some good use! Underwater ocean heat exchanging power stations remotely charging the silver-free solid-state batteries driving HUUUGE surfboards that will carry 90% of freight volume by 2050!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXB6T55oytE
Literally just trying to survive and watching the world go to hell while billionaires exhaust the carbon “budget” in 3 days..
I mean, we’re on the worst timeline possible.
That’s right Leon, we don’t live in a sane world.
Jupiviv, seeing as us humans are apparently hellbent on exponentially growing our number of data-centres, the impulse to use their waste-heat for warmth in the colder parts of the world is not entirely without merit… but as Erik says in his article:
“…the reason it’s funny is because countless people on the post obviously cannot see that data centers themselves are unsustainable, and indeed, civilization is likewise unsustainable.”
Truth Wizard, who is Leon?! I am fearing that this is a cool pop-culture reference I am now too cringe-inducingly middle-aged to have heard of. 😂
Edit: You are, of course, referencing Leon Simons, I now realise. Should read my own thread! 😆
i just had this funny thought. Well funny to me anyways. Due to the number of retired people who are regualr commenters here, if the internet stays up longer than most of us expect it to, at some point there could be several people reposting links or comments that they made a few hours before because they can no longer remember what they did a few hours before.
Sounds good, Curt. We can all go hopelessly senile together, collapse allowing. 😎
“If you don’t worry about it now, it will be too late later on.” Carl Sagan to Congress, 1985. “It” refers to climate change.
I’d say it is clearly “later on” (+40 years), which means it is clearly “too late.”
Mike, it is.
I have a vague memory that Carl Sagan also gave one of the earliest warnings of climate system tipping points back in the 80’s, but I can’t seem to find any references for that. Perhaps I saw it in a video.
Hey Mike , just to say thanks for guiding me to ” The Collapse of the Bronze Age ” .
This species will do nothing until it’s too late. Every C&E report seems to prove the point. I can’t complain, this is what 8 billion have chosen. Reminds me of voting against one’s best interest.
A big earthquake in Japan .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uz9f9vdfRnk
Thanks, Ravi. It looks only moderately big by their standards.
“‘Easier targets’: is Japan safe for foreigners if disaster strikes? Rising xenophobia, ‘vigilante’ patrols and memories of 1923 have rights advocates concerned that history could repeat itself.
“A century after thousands of foreigners were massacred in Japan following a devastating earthquake, human rights advocates worry about rising vigilantism should disaster strike again.”
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3339574/easier-targets-japan-safe-foreigners-if-disaster-strikes
Pan , just checked . The event was on 6th Jan .
https://japantoday.com/category/national/magnitude-6.2-quake-strikes-western-japan
Why this is important ? What will happen to the Yen carry trade ? Interest rates in JGB ? Remember the Kyoto earthquake bought down The Baring’s Bank a 223 year old institution . Now what is at risk . This is bigger than the 1995 earthquake . One thing for sure — it means a rethinking on the restart of old nuclear power plants .
Everyone needs to learn to enjoy the glow of nuclear explosions at dawn.
I watched a video about Florida’s diminishing ground water & sinkholes appearing in front & back yards. The next video recommendation was all the Florida septic tank affluents draining thru sandstone to the water table which is 3 to 10 feet below the surface.
Thanks for the glass of water but it tastes shitty.
I know shitty & stupid – Republicans, Democrats & the BMs – not bowel movements, it’s those that are bitching & moaning 😉
From coastal Maine. We are up near the Canadian border. It was not a good lobster season because the lobsters have migrated to deeper waters for colder temps. Boats used to fishing in shallow water cannot go our further in the ocean.
The scallop season just closed. The government will close the harvest if the scallops getting caught are too small. This year the fishermen were only allowed to fish for 17 days. Last year it was 20 days, the year before that 23 days. Not too long ago it was 30 days or more. This year there multiple instances of fisherman catching scallops that were too small. First time. If this happens you are at risk of loosing your license which are very difficult to get. Not good times for this part of the world.
We are still able to catch on our own mussels, clams and green crabs.
Congratulations on reaching your money raising goals.
Thank you, Duke. As I say up top, I was very touched.
Sorry folks, but I must reduce my posting frequency as packing & selling the Texas house is priority #1.
But I did come across this gem of an article:
I would not want to live in a world of gold
https://www.kitco.com/opinion/2026-01-13/i-would-not-want-live-world-gold
———————————-
I wish we could find out if Avi Gilbert [the author] is up to speed on Overshoot & Collapse and related symptoms like CC & resource depletion.
He might then modify this article because it appears he is caught in a narrow economic info-silo with a narrow time boundary of roughly 40 years. A more open time boundary encompassing the breadth of industrial civilization [say 1700s to now] may be more appropriate if we are in fact at the top of the Seneca Curve in many LTG categories.
But I could be wrong…when gold = Zero our values will be vastly different than today.
“Something about the song that disturbs you…”
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Please do keep us updated. Everyone here recognizes the problems ahead. Its nice to have people trying to work things out and sharing. Guy McPherson at Nature Bats Last when he was back in the mudhut was a good example.
Good Luck
“Sorry folks, but I must reduce my posting frequency as packing & selling the Texas house is priority #1.”
I thought Abbott and Paxton had that thoroughly covered already.
(best of luck to you Bob. I’ll miss your comments)
Good luck with the move, Bob. I don’t envy you that. Relocating up to Scotland definitely put some miles on my odometer. 😂
One interesting idea about Data Centres I read on TwiX..
“Greenland with its abundant geothermal energy infrastructure, cheap pumping of icy meltwaters, is an ideal location for Data Centres, no need for massive 24/7 cooling towers, just open a window..”
Humans are so clever!
😝 🤦🏻♀️
Although not so much this winter with lots of temps above freezing, Rain.