A very Happy Near Year to you all!
“Just an unbelievable amount of pollution’: how big a threat is AI to the climate?
“…“It was jaw-dropping,” said Wilson, a former oil and gas worker from Texas who has documented methane releases for more than a decade and estimates xAI’s Colossus datacentre was spewing more of the planet-heating gas than a large power plant. “Just an unbelievable amount of pollution.””
“December 2025 Arctic sea ice extent was the *lowest* on record for the month…
“This was 1,620,000 km² below the 1981-2010 average. December ice extent is decreasing at about 3.5% per decade.” [Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3mbholm3yjs2w
“Another no-freezing night for several stations in GREENLAND.
“It’s possible that some stations pass a whole week without dropping below freezing. That’s crazy in January, when no-freezing nights are rare and hardly ever more than 2 in a row.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2006971191236636797
“Finland sees 2nd warmest year on record in 2025…
“According to the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the country’s average annual temperature reached 4.5 degrees Celsius (40.1 degrees Fahrenheit), which is approximately 1.6C higher than the long-term average for the 1991-2020 reference period.”
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/finland-sees-2nd-warmest-year-on-record-in-2025/3787937
“Double record-breaking year for UK as 2025 confirmed as warmest and sunniest on record.
“Provisional calculations show that with an average temperature of 10.09C, this exceeds the previous record of 10.03C set in 2022. It means that 2025 joins 2022 and 2023 in the top three warmest years and it’s only the second year where the mean annual temperature has exceeded 10C.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c306gpyll19o
“Winter blooming of hundreds of plants in UK ‘visible signal’ of climate breakdown.
“A Met Office analysis of data from the annual new year’s plant hunt over the past nine years found an extra 2.5 species in bloom during the new year period for every 1C rise in temperature at a given location during the previous November and December.”
“‘Planting crops in 2026 may be pointless’ [UK]…
“Like many farmers across the country, Oliver’s farm was impacted by the drought and record high temperatures in 2025. His summer crops were poor – and failed to turn a profit. The fair weather recently has been good for the winter crops, but he says the prices being offered for wheat by grain traders are still not covering the cost of production.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0l9e46y82lo
“Drought leaves NW Türkiye’s Tekirdağ reservoir below 1% capacity.
“Marmaraereğlisi Mayor Onur Bozkurter said the water level has dropped below a critical threshold because of severe drought and water shortages. Calling on residents to conserve water to avoid further hardship, Bozkurter said the situation highlights the scale of the crisis.”
“AFRICA HEAT WAVE – another day >40C [104F] in Cameroon and Nigeria with many more to come.
“Starting from tomorrow the record heat will spread from the Sahel to the Sahara (35C coming to Algeria and Libya) and than the Mediterranean, including Greece and South Balkans. Ready for history?”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2007161597924651339
“Africa faces a silent mental health crisis as extreme weather intensifies…
“Across the continent, catastrophic weather-related events are not only destroying communities and disrupting livelihoods and businesses, but they are also inflicting a hidden, often overlooked toll: the mental health of those affected.”
“How the climate crisis is changing an ancient way of life in Ethiopia…
““Climate change is a huge issue here in Afar, driving two extremes: drought when there is not enough rain, and flooding, which erodes the soil and degrades the performance of land,” says Habtamu Ebrie, who leads the work by the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) on livelihoods and resilience in Afar.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/ethiopia-climate-crisis-drought-flood-b2851749.html
“Doctors fear ‘swamp fever’ spreading in flood-hit Gaza.
“Health authorities are warning of yet another potential health threat in Gaza: leptospirosis. Dr. Bassam Zaqout says widespread flooding and lack of basic sanitation make the devastated strip a perfect breeding ground for the bacterial disease also known as swamp or rat fever.”
“‘These trees may not survive’: Jordan’s ancient olive harvest wilts under record-breaking heat…
“The country is facing its weakest olive oil season in four decades, with production down as much as 70% compared with last year. In a typical year, the olive-picking season begins in late September, and mills start processing by mid-October. This year, the harvest did not begin until early November.”
“Record rainfall helps Jordan hit 90% annual average in January.
“Official ministry data shows that cumulative rainfall across various regions has touched 90% of the long-term annual average. It stands in contrast to last year, when total precipitation struggled to reach the 40% threshold at the same time last year.”
https://en.royanews.tv/news/66285/Record-rainfall-helps-Jordan-hit-90%25-annual-average-in-January
“Water Shortages Disrupt Hydropower Production in Uzbekistan.
“Uzbek Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov informed lawmakers during a recent session of the Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis that electricity generation at Uzbekistan’s hydropower plants has significantly decreased due to water shortages.”
https://caspianpost.com/uzbekistan/water-shortages-disrupt-hydropower-production-in-uzbekistan
“Russia Ready to Supply Water to Iran Amid Drought Crisis [a gesture of solidarity; not a feasible solution]
“According to Efimov, Moscow would be willing to examine the technical, logistical and economic challenges associated with such cooperation if a concrete request is presented. Iran has faced mounting water stress in recent years due to declining rainfall, over-extraction of groundwater, inefficient water management and rising temperatures.”
https://caspianpost.com/politics/russia-ready-to-supply-water-to-iran-amid-drought-crisis
“At least 17 dead as heavy rains trigger flash floods in Afghanistan.
“Most of the casualties have occurred since Monday in districts hit by flooding, and the severe weather also disrupted daily life across central, northern, southern, and western regions, according to Mohammad Yousaf Hammad, a spokesman for the Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority.”
“Pakistan’s invisible climate casualties. Poor data masks the true human toll of climate disasters…
“Vulnerable communities are hit hardest by climate-linked disasters and remain exposed long after the headlines fade. In Pakistan, deaths recorded immediately after major disasters receive attention, while the far greater toll in the months that follow goes largely unacknowledged.”
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2584986/pakistans-invisible-climate-casualties
“Abnormal seasons and the impact on rural life in Telangana [India].
“This winter, parts of Telangana, including Hyderabad, experienced dense morning fog reducing visibility to mere metres, followed by unexpectedly warm afternoons pushing temperatures well above seasonal norms. This wide diurnal swing highlights the growing abnormality in seasonal patterns amid climate change.”
https://thesouthfirst.com/opinion/abnormal-seasons-and-the-impact-on-rural-life-in-telangana/
“Extreme heat and dengue: Bangladesh’s twin public health crises.
“…dengue has transformed from a seasonal outbreak into a year-round public health threat. Once largely confined to the monsoon season, dengue cases are now being reported earlier in the year and persisting for longer.”
“In Depth: China’s ‘Rain Belt’ Marches North, Unleashing Floods on Arid Lands…
“In the final weeks of 2025, rain has become the new normal across China’s dry north — so frequent, and at times so violent, that it is rewriting local records and stretching the very notion of a “flood season.” In Inner Mongolia’s capital, Hohhot, annual precipitation was closing in on 800 millimeters (31.5 inches).”
“In 2025, China’s average temperature reached 11.0℃ (+1.1℃), breaking the 2024 record of 10.9℃ and setting a new historical high.
“Temperature across most of China were more than 0.5℃ above average, with 16 provinces setting a new historical high! The top five warmest years are all concentrated in the past five years!” [Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/2006701536332886377
“Research ties China’s smog clean-up to hotter and drier conditions in Australia.
“Such has been the success of China’s air-cleaning effort since the 2010s that researchers have now linked it to changes in weather far beyond its borders, including in Australia. Researchers have also tied it to global temperature rises as the aerosols’ masking effect on global warming is diminished.”
“‘Burst of heat’: Millions to swelter in heatwave as temperatures tip past 40C [104F].
“Millions are set for a sweltering week as hot air smashes most of the country, and the mercury tipping past 40C in multiple major cities. A hot air mass is currently moving over Western Australia, bringing a band of scorching heat from Perth all the way to parts of Victoria and NSW.”
“Mystery pink slime on secluded Tasmanian beach prompts fears of potential algal bloom…
“The pink-tinged sludge appeared along a stretch of Randalls Bay about 60km south of Hobart on Friday morning. A similar sludge has also been recorded on sections of Little Roaring Beach in Tasmania’s D’Entrecasteaux Channel and Little Taylors Bay.”
“ANTARCTICA HOLIDAYS WAS RECORD WARM – 25 Dec:
“Exceptional +8.1C [46.6F] at the Zucchelli Base at latitude 74S; -12.2C at Concordia at 3400m on the Plateau, a new monthly record and 2nd highest in history. ALL TIME RECORD +10.8C [51.4F] Mirnyj. Record heat is in every Continent, like never before.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2006683241366127045
“Historic Minimum 28.3C [82.9F] Chuuk – MICRONESIA HOTTEST JANUARY NIGHT IN HISTORY and one of the highest in all Hemisphere in January.
“170+ countries are breaking heat records: we are witnessing the most record breaking days the world has ever seen and it’ll get worse.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2007282056880161015
“2025 also ended with record heat in ARGENTINA:
“Olavarria (opened in 1987); Min 22.1 and Max 38.5 [101.3F] both new December records. Pehuajo Min 24.8 December High tmin tied.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2006795092682752357
“Powerful Hailstorm Batters Argentina’s Cordoba Province on New Year’s Day.
“Argentina’s Cordoba province experienced intense weather conditions on January 1, with strong winds up to 70 km/h (43 mph), substantial rain, and hail. Footage by X user CachiPonio shows large hailstones falling in a residential neighborhood.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/powerful-hailstorm-batters-argentinas-cordoba-201112530.html
“‘The source of all life is here’: plan to mine lithium in Chilean salt flat sparks fears of water scarcity…
“The project will pose a direct threat to the Colla Indigenous people living here, says Lesley Muñoz Rivera, secretary of the Copiapó Indigenous community. “The Maricunga salt flat is the source of all life here. Hydrological studies suggest that it is the source of our water. It’s a sacred place for us.””
“Historic heat in COLOMBIA – the famous coastal city of Cartagena recorded a Minimum of 26.9C [80.4F], its hottest January night in history… BRAZIL January records in Minas Gerais (Mantena) and Rio de Janeiro State.
“All tropical countries keep smashing records continuously, much worse than during the last Nino.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2007107644776222922
“Mexico Opens Dam Floodgates To Release Rio Grande Water After Trump Tariff Threats.
“Mexico has recently begun releasing some water from its largest reservoirs to catch up on obligations under the 1944 Water Treaty with America, but only after sustained pressure and tariff threats from the Trump administration.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/mexico-opens-dam-floodgates-release-203020581.html
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN TEXAS. Once again, while US meteorologists failed again (0 cold records, nowhere even close), your author was the only one to see this coming:
“93F in Texas, 100F in NW Mexico and widespread records including 89F San Antonio which tied its January record.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2007275672855794173
“2025 Las Vegas weather wrapped: The hottest December, record rain and more…
“…we’re about to wrap up the warmest December Las Vegas has ever seen, with an average temperature of 55.1 degrees. During several days in December, afternoon highs soared 10 to 15 degrees above normal, even though it got colder toward the end.”
https://www.ktnv.com/news/2025-las-vegas-weather-wrapped-the-hottest-december-record-rain-and-more
“Southern California winter rains break records, with another storm on the way [should be dry with La Nina].
“California’s already wet winter is breaking rainfall records, with another powerful storm moving in this weekend along with the threat of new flooding and mudslides. After a remarkable dry streak in 2024 that helped fuel last January’s firestorms, this winter is making up for it…”
“A dying culture: Indigenous elder in Alaska passes down hunting traditions…
“Record rainfall battered Northwest Alaska this year, flooding Schaeffer’s backyard twice this fall alone. He worries about the toll on wildlife and whether his grandchildren will be able to live in Kotzebue as the changes accelerate. “It’s kind of scary to think about what’s going to happen,” he said.”
“After a short dip, global Sea Surface Temperatures ended for 2025 well over 0.1°C higher than 2023 began.
“If an El Niño does develop this year, 2026 could well be record warm.” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/2006760896270578082
“Category 6 hurricanes? Deep ocean heat is fueling stronger storms…
“It’s not just a naming exercise. Clear thresholds shape risk communication, building codes, and preparedness plans. If more storms are pushing into this ultra-intense territory, communities need to know that and plan for it.”
https://www.earth.com/news/category-6-hurricanes-deep-ocean-heat-is-fueling-stronger-storms/
I rely on donations and tips from my readers to to keep the site running. Every little bit helps. Can you chip in even a dollar? Buy me a coffee or become a Patreon supporter. A huge thank you to those who do subscribe or donate.
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
At the risk of being tedious, I think I’m going to post this every year because it is so important and seems to be completely missed by the media. In bell shaped probability curves, as for weather events, as the mean increases linearly the extreme events change geometrically. By my non-statistical, anecdotal analysis I reckon this has shown up as an approximate 10 fold increase in extreme events for each degree of warming (e.g. 100 year droughts become decadal, yearly temperature records occur for ten days at a stretch). So by 2 degrees (probably early 30s) things will be 3.2 times worse, by 3 degrees 32 times (probably unsurvivable over more than a couple of decades) and at 4 degrees 320 times (the end of large animals).
It may be worse because it looks like a) that the disruption to the hydrologic cycle is taking a bit of time to catch up to the temperature increase; and b) there are theoretical reasons and observational evidence to suggest the bell curve is flattening out as we warm up so extreme events become more common than predicted.
Newspaper articles seem to have three responses to events: 1) things are bound to get better, 2) next year will be the same as this year (most common at the moment I think), or 3) things will go on getting worse linearly. In fact as a minimum things will keep on getting worse exponentially, plus there is a guarantee of quasi cyclic step changes from the likes of El Nino, and a good chance of sudden increases in the rate of acceleration (jerks or jounces?) as tipping points are passed.
>>>it is so important and seems to be completely missed by the media.
Great post, thanks George, I’m sure it’s getting discussed at length at insurance companies.
I see it’s gone to the next level in Venezuela, we’re off to a flying start in ’26, wow!
I agree with Flippr – very valuable comment.
A little on the ground reporting: it’s been way too dry for months here in western North Carolina (historically a semitropical rainforest in my county).
And here at beginning if January NO below freezing nights in sight for next 10 days. Crazy. 😳
I was talking with someone over the holiday who agreed that collapse “might” happen, but not in her lifetime (age 70). Even at her age, I don’t think she’s correct. But I didn’t try to make my case. Because as we here all know this is one of the very standard responses: “yes, but not in my lifetime.”
I am also in an online support group for a health issue with many women in their 20s and 30s who are all looking forward to healing up and having wonderful lives. Zero clue about the great convergence well under way. I don’t think their lives will turn out anything like they expect.
Cassandra,
“Yes, but not in my lifetime.”
Famous last words? This person needs to know that premature death [for all age groups] is the norm.
A more correct response is: “Yes, but not in my now shortened lifetime.”
This un-informed person is probably imagining living a long & full life free of endocrine disrupting pollutants, nanoplastics in the brain, no financial stress, etc. He/She doesn’t know that we have already ‘turned the corner’ on maximizing longevity.
—————————————————-
High and Rising Mortality Rates Among Working-Age Adults.
Summary
The past century has witnessed remarkable advances in life expectancy in the United States and throughout the world. In 2010, however, progress in life expectancy in the United States began to stall, despite continuing to increase in other high-income countries. Alarmingly, U.S. life expectancy fell between 2014 and 2015 and continued to decline through 2017, the longest sustained decline in life expectancy in a century (since the influenza pandemic of 1918–1919). The recent decline in U.S. life expectancy appears to have been the product of two trends: (1) an increase in mortality among middle-age and younger adults, defined as those ages 25–64 years (i.e., “working age”), which began in the 1990s for several specific causes of death (e.g., drug- and alcohol-related causes and suicide); and (2) a slowing of declines in working-age mortality due to other causes of death (mainly cardiovascular diseases) after 2010.
Go to:
STUDY PURPOSE, APPROACH, AND SCOPE
Explaining why mortality has been rising among working-age adults is not straightforward. Mortality is the final result of both acute events and cumulative, long-term processes involving the interaction of social, behavioral, economic, environmental, and biological factors that develop and unfold over the life course….
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK571940/
———————————-
NCHS Provisional Report on U.S. Mortality for 2024
NCHS has just released a new report titled “Mortality in the United States: Provisional Data, 2024.” This report offers an early snapshot of death rates across the country, breaking down the data by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. It also highlights the leading causes of death in the United States…
…A noteworthy change in this year’s report is that suicide has now taken the place of COVID-19 as the 10th leading cause of death.
https://blogs.cdc.gov/nchs/2025/09/10/7840/
———————————————————
ME: I am now 70 & 1/2. My father lived to 96, my mother to 86. I think I will be very lucky to make it to 80 with the way present decline trends are heading.
But that just might be that nanoplastic plastic spoon in my brain stirring my thoughts…
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I watched the latest Eliot Jacobsen youtube and noticed even Sam Mitchell might have given up on the not-in-my-lifetime thing. I don’t know what a combination of a black hat and NIMT doomer would be – maybe a flat cap doomer.
George, your comment is not tedious at all. I agree with what you say. The fact that the probability of extreme events + risk of jerks and jounces increases nonlinearly as the climate warms is largely ignored by the media.
Even if things at 2C are only 3.2 times worse in some regions, the knock-on effects of that, like parts of MENA becoming uninhabitable, would likely spell the end for the global economy. Academics address these issues but it doesn’t really filter through to the mainstream:
“There is growing concern that global warming may increase the propensity of the climate system to undergo regime shifts… ENSO can impose persistent climatic imprints extending well beyond its immediate phase, raising the question of whether its most extreme manifestations—super El Niño events—can trigger Climate Regime Shifts on a global scale.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-66143-7
Sam is a slow collapse guy and i have been following him for a while. Sam seemed to missed the whole Florida housing collapse thing and not sure what he was thinking would happen. He is to preoccupied with videos clicking and such is my own opinion of him. Since it appears YouTube is not a great source of income now like it once was. Even Sandy is getting help from her bother for finances.
First we will lose the water…..climate collapse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=karZ2UFGSZU&list=LL&index=13
This video presentation is stark reminder..what goes around, come around.
As George here pointed out
“It may be worse because it looks like a) that the disruption to the hydrologic cycle is taking a bit of time to catch up to the temperature increase; and b) there are theoretical reasons and observational evidence to suggest the bell curve is flattening out as we warm up so extreme events become more common than predicted.”
It probably is worse
VPK, thxs for the video! The lack of water combined with all the other dire trends we discuss here on C&E hopefully provides a full broad boundary, complete systems synthesis for the lurkers. Achieving a mental encapsulation of a full, inclusive lens to our Predicament is IMO: the best method to prepare for what comes next….
Just like the Generals did their best to prepare the young soldiers for the storming of the beaches on D-Day: I hope every author here [especially PAN!] understands their contributions help mentally prepare the young lurkers for the proper battle of losing billions of lives to the Seneca Decline.
Youtube Movie: Patton, opening speech, 6 minutes. Mentally insert whatever flag you desire in the background.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PS5yfhPGaWE
Hopefully some lurkers will weigh in with their thoughts on our Predicament.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
From the article above on African mental health [[my edits inside double brackets]]:
…Studies indicate extreme heat [[ plus plastics, pollutants, unemployment stress, financial distress, homelessness, migration agony, sexual violence, and trying to avoid landmines, bullets & shrapnel stress]] can cause impaired brain function and increase overall negative stress, which can lead to inflammation in the body and increase the likelihood of various non-communicable conditions. It can also worsen pre-existing mental health symptoms.
“Heat [[ plus plastics, pollutants, unemployment stress, financial distress, homelessness, migration agony, sexual violence, and trying to avoid landmines, bullets & shrapnel stress] doesn’t only affect the body. It affects the mind, influences medication stability, sleep quality, emotional regulation and can worsen pre-existing conditions,” said Mojica.
“Moreover, we are seeing this across multiple continents, age groups and cultures.”
————————————————————
ME: I am sure I forgot something, but stress can cause that too…
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Leon Simon’s twitter:
And it’s a wrap. The year 2025 came in at 1.47°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, making it the 3rd warmest year on record behind 2023 (1.48°C) and 2024 (1.60°C), and likely the 3rd warmest in the last 120,000 years.
I remember a while back posting an impromptu comedy script about COP30 ghosting the Paris Agreement. Here’s the sequel:
*The digital wheeze of life on the other side of the line. A podcast about Marxist manscaping. Douchily equanimous male voices that think they’re funny girdled by wanly bitchy female voices that beg to differ, but might be persuaded otherwise in the fullness of time. The scratching of latex uniforms worn by servants or attendants or whatever the appropriate term of address, and the clinking of clinky things circulating with them in the quietly brisk key party. They hosted one last year too but the libs threw a tantrum and boycotted it. Since then libidos have peaked and tempers have settled.*
“…”
“Uhhh yeah?”
“…”
“Well you don’t have to go out there and fight him bro, chill. Hello?”
“Nah that’s okay dude there’s just, like, a lot going on right now lol. Sooo… what up what up.”
*sotto voce* “Bro, listen! I was fighting to get you in, I was ready to kick ass, I was speaking truth to power. But these are, like, very powerful people bro… way outta my league bro. They said, and I quote, we don’t want that preachy self-righteous loser ruining our fun, and also his wife is ugly af. They said that not me bro! What was I supposed to do?”
“Thanks for understanding fam. I mean that. So was that it or… wow, really?”
“Oh! Well that’s, uh, wow. That is absolutely, you know, tragic. Jesus.”
“Yeah, like I said, tragic. So I guess that means… right, uh huh…”
“But the problem is… hold on a minute… There’s no judgment here babe! Ahahah! Whoooo!”
“You still there? Look dude I get it but what can I say? Hunker down and hold the fort until we figure out the AI/Solar circular economy. Repeat after me: grow local, get vocal… grow local, get-”
*Chants of ‘grow local, get vocal’ fill up the room. The tone conveys an odd mixture of bliss and contempt. It’s one of those social situations where one notices a meaning only after the fact, and then it’s too late to say anything.*
“Shut the eff up already you bunch of perverts! Not you sir, obviously. Or you Your Grace. Eh heh heh… anyway give me a sec while I repair to the balcony…”
“Aaaand I’m back. No I know it’s cringe but like good kinda cringe, right? Like, Taylor Swift cringe. Big tent but not at the cost of integrity. David Foster Wallace. Progressive Sex Positive Family Values. Zach Efron. Right? Anyway, work your black magic on it and get back to me ‘kay?”
“Decolonizing Climate Alarmism? Holy shit that is brilliant! Tell you what, turn that into a policy paper by next Tuesday and you’re locked in for 2027. Uhrmm…. sure she can come too I guess. Speaking of, how’s Greenpeace doing? Great. You too. Bye.”
One things for sure – Maduros got no street-smarts.
But Chavistas still rule in Venezuela. Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez is acting as president and Defense Minister Diosdado Cabello is also in place. The government issued a fierce statement:
The objective of this attack is none other than to seize Venezuela’s strategic resources, particularly its oil and minerals, in an attempt to forcibly break the nation’s political independence. They will not succeed. After more than 200 years of independence, the people and their legitimate government remain steadfast in defending their sovereignty and their inalienable right to decide their own destiny. The attempt to impose a colonial war to destroy the republican form of government and force a “regime change,” in alliance with the fascist oligarchy, will fail like all previous attempts.
It called on its people to defend the country.
One wonders what the next steps are the US is planning to take. It does not have enough forces to invade Venezuela. Nor would a blockade of the country lead to a change of its government. An internal revolution is unlikely to succeed.
The US gnomes managed to steal the underwear. Now comes step 2. Then profits. That sounds like a good plan.
But nobody seems to know so far what step 2 might entail.
It is not over until the fat lady sings.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/01/whats-the-us-follow-up-action-after-taking-maduro-out.html#comments
Not sure what step 2 is.
Step 3 is likely a shitload of SAGD.
SAGD = Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam-assisted_gravity_drainage#Description
Or were you thinking of some other description for this acronym?
That’s the one. Repairing Venezuela’s oil industry is projected to be a massive, decade-long undertaking requiring hundreds of billions of dollars. So that’s not gonna happen. Perhaps instead just rip and ship feedstock to gulf coast refinery belt.
I heard a podcast a week or so ago (maybe TYT) which mentioned that Trump had asked the USA IOCs if they wanted to go back to Venezuela and they basically said no (Chevron are already there in a small way of course). It may be a lesson learned from Iraq. At the time of the war I worked on an ExxonMobil job and the most MAGA types of their employees (of which there were a lot) were licking there lips at the prospect of all that oil. However, security and corruption made operating costs the highest anywhere (engineers were flown in from Dubai and needed bodyguards) and the royalty regime was not favourable, fairly quickly they all pulled out.
My guess is the infrastructure is in much poorer state than Iraq’s was in and is less easy to access – scattered about the jungle rather than concentrated in fairly accessible regions. I would imagine there is now going to be a multi-factioned and long term fight for power through the country, possibly with Russian, Chinese and Iranian involvement, with a big flow of refugees coming back in or moving around internally. That will be almost impossible to work in. There are a lot of good native Venezuelan engineers in the USA that left when the industry was nationalised but they must all be well settled in Houston and Dallas now and unlikely to want to move. Even if investments are made there’s no guarantee that another nationalisation wouldn’t happen as soon as Trump’s brain finally rots away in its own repulsive malevolence.
I’m not sure how much SAGD they use or could use. The oil is not bitumen and will flow up a well bore (just) but needs diluent for allowing flow in pipes back to the processing centres. Venezuela doesn’t have much natural gas, unlike Canada, so any steam raising would need to use the liquid product, which would take a big bite out of the EROI and profits. Also I’m not sure the reservoirs are very suitable (the steam would tend to flow away from the oil). Oil is processed in Flexicoke (?) – ExxonMobil crackers, and the waste solid streams are horrible – lots of Vanadium and other heavy metals. I should think the pollution and related health issues there are pretty awful.
George Kaplan, thxs for this write-up. Good to know.
Yes! Thank you, George.
While we await further news I think this was basically a kidnapping action a la Noriega . Maduro was betrayed by his generals and handed over to the US forces . I do not see or hear of an amphibious landing or ground force deployment nor any firefight /skirmish between VZ army and a US commando forces that must have obviously landed by helicopters in Caracas to whisk Maduro . No fatalities on either side . Just my assessment .
I agree. Seems like a betrayal. An inside job.
Thank you, all, as ever, for your comments. Domestic events have overtaken me this evening, so I don’t have time to respond to them all.
Ravi, what you say about Maduro being betrayed sounds very possible. Hopefully, more info will be available in time for Monday’s thread.
It occurs to me that Cuba could be the next regime to be toppled, as subsidised oil from Venezuela has been its lifeline, and the Trump administration has been leaning on its backstop, Mexico to stop sending oil.
Could Panama or even Greenland come under similar pressure? Iran is also looking vulnerable. What extraordinary times these are.
Pete Hegseth has literally said he doesn’t give a fuck about international law. And if the US can mount this kind of unilateral action against a sovereign state then it makes it easier for other countries to justify doing the same. That’s the world we live in now.
Is China taking Taiwan = US taking, then running the country of Venezuela?
“if the US can mount this kind of unilateral action against a sovereign state then it makes it easier for other countries to justify doing the same”
USA might find that opaquely funded third party actors in rural Afghanistan start putting them in their sights again.
If the Dollar & Treasury Bonds go to zip: then the US is going to need barter BIGTIME! Venezuelan oil for Taiwan chips, oops, Chinese chips?
Everything is built on a pile of quicksand how fast this thing falls apart is anyone’s guess. Cracks are everywhere at this point i am sorry if you cant see them. Its easy to say why aren’t we extinct while in an extinction period but meanwhile everything around gets worse by the day, I am not sure why people think 1/1000 year flood events seem normal now and droughts are even worse than before. Florida cant rebuild and Hawaii isn’t rebuilding either. Washington is in bad shape after our floods this December. Healthcare system is collapsing and crumbling while no one can afford housing, food or anything else at this point. Tell me everything great!
If some ppoerful eople in Venezuela made a secret deal to hand over Maduro and his wife, then what other secret deals did they agree to?
Curious circumstances. One has to be very careful when you have a large bounty on for head. Your whole life becomes trade craft procedures. Perhaps Maduro was coached into being paranoid and isolating by someone looking to collect a reward? Did anybody other than his wife catch a ride out?
If Maduro is culpable was running drugs then it’s because he was running an organization that did that. Likely an element of his security and intelligence service. It’s not a one man show, and should be easy to demonstrate. Perhaps his lawyer will make some interesting statements.
What’s wrong with American? We didn’t even spill innocent women’s & children’s blood. What a bunch of losers. We did spill 100s of gallons in Iraq & Afghanistan. Who’s in the Epstein files?
Bob Shaw,
This species is over a 100 IQ points below yeast.
Cartel of the Suns
https://insightcrime.org/venezuela-organized-crime-news/cartel-de-los-soles-profile/
Perhaps some Chavismo intra elite rivalry concerning the cocaine biz. It wouldn’t be the first time.
“America is an oil company with an army.” – George Carlin
TR, now that is a terrific quote, a real keeper! I always loved George Carlin.
Hello C&E readers,
Is Iran’s Supreme Leader about to take the big bucks and run to Putin? Will he wait until the protesting Iranian Citizens grab him? Will his own security apparatus turn on him? Or will some country’s Special Ops Forces grab him and whisk him away? Life as a topdog is getting quite precarious of late!
———————————–
Is Ayatollah Khamenei Preparing to Flee to Russia as Protests Spiral in Iran? What New Report Reveals
Edited by: Rounak Bagchi
Updated Jan 5, 2026, 05:36 IST
The claims come amid a wave of protests across Iran, triggered by economic hardship and reported in cities nationwide, including Qom
…The report says the 86-year-old leader would seek to leave Tehran with a small group of close aides and family members if he judged that the army or security services were deserting, defecting or refusing to follow orders. The group could include up to 20 people, among them his son Mojtaba, who is widely regarded as his heir apparent.
…The reported plan is said to be modelled on the escape of Syria’s former president Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia in December 2024 as opposition forces closed in on Damascus.
According to the intelligence source cited by The Times, preparations include “gathering assets, properties abroad and cash to facilitate their safe passage”. Khamenei is known to control a vast network of assets through organisations such as Setad, part of Iran’s system of semi-state foundations. A Reuters investigation in 2013 estimated the holdings at around $95bn, including properties and companies under his control.
…The same report described Khamenei as “weaker, both mentally and physically” since last year’s 12-day war with Israel. He has made few public appearances in recent days and was not seen during the latest protests. During the conflict with Israel, he reportedly remained in a bunker, reinforcing what the assessment described as an “obsession with survival”.
https://www.timesnownews.com/world/iran-protests-updates-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-flee-to-russia-moscow-article-153396264
——————————
ME: Will he go or will he stay? Probably too late for him to depart with widespread Iranian acclaim as a heroic Martyr [you know the story–> taking one for the team, yada, yada, yada].
If he stays the mob might just let him & his family die of thirst & dehydration for his mismanagement of Iran’s water supplies plus much more corruption.
If the Imam & family makes it to Russia, then a life of ease & luxury beyond compare!
Stay tuned!
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?