Many thanks to my October donor, Cassandra, who suggests this month listening daily to Adagio for Strings (one of the west’s most famous concert pieces) while you read the C & E posts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQsgE0L450 (If you use the Brave browser it can play in the background even when not on that page, plus no ads!).
“‘A foot out in the cold’: leaders huddle at IMF as icy economic winds blow…
“The IMF frets that the huge “shadow bank” sector could unleash global chaos if loans start to go bad – particularly since many of the firms involved are funded via borrowing from mainstream banks.”
“World’s banking system risks a $4.5tn shock from the shadows.
““A desire to win in a competitive market sometimes leads to shortcuts,” Marc Rowan, Apollo Global Management’s boss, told a Financial Times summit this week. “In some of these more levered credits, there’s been a willingness to cut corners.””
“Credit Markets Wobble as Loan Losses Revive Bank Crisis Fears.
“Global credit markets are on edge as fresh loan blowups fuel credit risk concerns and stir memories of the 2023 US regional banking crisis… “A flurry of negative headlines in recent weeks has undermined the resilience of credit markets,” Citigroup Inc. strategist Srikanth Sankaran wrote in a note.”
“So much of credit securitisation still relies on magical thinking…
“In a case of magical thinking, markets believe they can derive higher returns and arrangers earn fees from rearranging underlying loan cash flows that remain unchanged. Rather than financial alchemy, it suggests mispricing, reduced capital buffers and hidden risks.”
https://www.ft.com/content/6da7186a-f438-4256-9f0e-dbb3b25d5e58
“If America’s banks crash, don’t count on a bailout…
“…none of the fundamental issues have been fixed. Many of the regional banks in the US are poorly regulated, don’t make much money from their core lending business and don’t have enough capital for the kinds of risks they are taking on.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/19/if-americas-banks-crash-dont-count-on-a-bailout/
“Bitcoin Crash: A Canary In The Coal Mine.
“Bitcoin has crashed – not the sort of typical bitcoin meltdown, but an old-school, equity-style crash of around 25%. That kind of move is almost not big enough for bitcoiners to consider it significant, but for “grown up assets,” that would be big news.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/10/19/bitcoin-crash-a-canary-in-the-coal-mine/
“Gold & Silver have seen an inflow of $34.2 Billion over the last 10 weeks, the largest inflow in history.”
[Barchart]
https://x.com/Barchart/status/1979684007647600892
“Gold is becoming unaffordable: It now takes 116 hours of work in the US to buy 1 ounce of gold, the most in at least 100 years.
“This comes as gold prices hit a record close of ~$4,225, while average hourly earnings reached $36.50 in August. The ratio has DOUBLED in just 18 months.” [Kobeissi Letter]
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1979563634805133590
“Foreign investors are ALL-IN on US stocks:
“Overseas investors’ allocation to US equities hit a RECORD 61%. This share is now 7 percentage points above the 2000 Dot-Com bubble peak. By comparison, at the Financial Crisis low, it was 25%.” [Global Markets Investor]
https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1979638617799569808
“U.S. margin debt just hit $1.1 trillion, the highest ever.
“That means investors have borrowed over a trillion dollars to buy more stocks. In September alone, they borrowed another $67 billion. And now, the SEC is being asked to approve something called 5x leveraged ETFs, which would let people borrow five times the amount they invest.”
[Stock Market News]
https://x.com/_Investinq/status/1979522219488195018
“U.S. public debt hits record $37.9 trillion, rising $25 billion daily as fiscal crisis deepens.
“This marks a +$400 BILLION jump this month, or +$25 billion per day. Federal debt has now surged +$1.7 TRILLION since the debt ceiling was raised in July, rising over +$425 billion every month. At the current pace, total debt would hit a record $40 trillion by as soon as 2026.”
“‘Finances are getting tighter’: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans…
“As the car lending market shows signs of strain, business around repossessions is booming. “Right now, we’re overwhelmed with work,” George Badeen, who runs Midwest Recovery and Adjustment in Detroit, Michigan, said.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/17/us-car-repossessions-economy
“Can global cooperation prevent a financial tsunami?
“…The world stands on the brink of what might become the most dangerous financial shock in modern history: the collapse of confidence in the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.”
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/can-global-cooperation-prevent-a-financial-tsunami/
“Could central banks ease too much?
“…government fiscal space is far more limited than before the global financial crisis or even the pandemic. Central bank intervention to rescue a financial system can lack credibility when the government does not have the resources or political capital to fund large bailouts.”
https://www.ft.com/content/9511d544-a649-4cbe-9b72-c02e6b03a049
“Supply and Demand Fears Continue to Drag Oil Prices Lower…
“Tensions between the U.S. and China have flared recently, with each side imposing extra port fees on cargo shipments – moves that could slow freight flows and undermine global growth. A prolonged decoupling of the two largest energy consumers could sharply reduce oil demand.”
“OPEC+ Spare Capacity Crisis Puts Global Energy Security at Risk…
“The OPEC+ spare capacity crisis represents one of the most significant threats to global energy stability in recent years. As production buffers shrink to critically low levels, the world’s ability to weather supply disruptions hangs by an increasingly thin thread.”
https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/oil-production-buffer-spare-capacity-crisis-2025/
“US Shale growth is collapsing:
2023: +800 kb/d
2025: +80 kb/d
2030: ? “That’s a 90% drop in just 2 years. A peak in US shale would be a true game changer.” [Lukas Ekwueme]
https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/1979651294273966115
“Britain’s declining carbon emissions have been fuelled by the shutdown of more than 100 businesses and factories, it has emerged.
“Up to 15pc of the UK’s reduction in greenhouse gas emissions over the past two decades was a direct consequence of the closure of energy-intensive factories such as steelworks, according to data from the UK Emissions Trading Scheme.”
“Oil and gas workers offered cash to retrain, in major plan for future clean energy workforce [UK].
“Their jobs are about to fall off a cliff as the industry declines, with at least 40,000 of the current 115,000 jobs forecast to disappear by the early 2030s. Almost all of those roles are thought to be fairly easily transferable into green industries…”
“S&P cuts France’s credit rating as it forecasts higher debt pile.
“Standard & Poors on Friday cut France’s credit rating on expectations that its debt will rise higher than previously anticipated in the coming years, heaping pressure on Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s budget plans.”
https://www.ft.com/content/1fe41c81-ac0c-4bc2-b760-4d9a3bb15895
“EU countries move to pull plug on Russian gas to Hungary and Slovakia.
“After three years of reasoning, pleading and conceding, the EU has had enough. On Monday, the bloc’s 27 member countries are expected to back a new bill that will permanently cut Russian gas supplies to Hungary and Slovakia — whether they like it or not.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-countries-move-pull-plug-on-russia-gas-hungary-slovakia/
“Ukraine Targets Orenburg Gas Plant in Latest Long-Range Strike…
“Russia over the past month has reported a growing number of drone attacks deep inside its territory, with some reaching nearly 2,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border — further testing the country’s air defenses.”
“Trump urged Zelenskyy to accept Putin’s terms or be ‘destroyed’ by Russia…
“…the US president tossed aside maps of the frontline in Ukraine, insisted Zelenskyy surrender the entire Donbas region to Putin, and repeatedly echoed talking points the Russian leader had made in their call a day earlier.”
https://www.ft.com/content/7960c6aa-dbfa-4a55-91e8-ae44601842ec
“Chinese minister calls on shipping industry to fight US ‘protectionism’.
“China’s Minister of Transport Liu Wei has called on shipping companies and port operators worldwide to promote free trade in a “concerted effort” to combat “protectionism” after the US administration slapped port fees on Chinese vessels.”
“How China tightens the screws in trade war with the US.
“…can America really afford to cut ties? Is the free flow of mutually traded goods like rare earths, smartphones, soybeans and microchips at risk of becoming a victim of the fight for geopolitical dominance?”
https://www.dw.com/en/how-china-tightens-the-screws-in-trade-war-with-the-us/a-74388628
“The ‘potassium railway’: how North America lost a trump card in trade war with China.
“China’s strategic investment in transport infrastructure is helping it access Laotian reserves… According to a Chinese government study released this month, this railway has become a critical conduit for China to secure potassium – a strategic resource vital for agricultural production.”
“China urges Philippines to give up ‘unrealistic illusions’ in South China Sea…
“The Philippines’ Department of National Defense said Thursday on the US social media company, Facebook: “China’s narrative that the Philippines is a ‘late claimant,’ which ignores centuries of legal history and is flatly contradicted by official maps and legal documents that predate the People’s Republic of China itself.””
“Restart of Huge Nuclear Power Plant Faces Backlash in Japan.
“TEPCO’s monetary proposal is for the creation of a $667 million (100 billion yen) fund for the benefit of Niigata prefecture, Nikkei Asia reported last week. Anti-nuclear activists have slammed the proposal as a “bribery” of the local residents to accept the restart of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant.”
“Volatility threatens food security [Bangladesh].
“Disruption in farming activities and supply chain of agricultural inputs due to continuous blockade and rampant violent activities is posing a serious threat to the country’s food security. Spiralling prices of goods and essential commodities amid the current political unrest are also causing immense suffering to the commoners.”
https://today.thefinancialexpress.com.bd/editorial/volatility-threatens-food-security
“India: Unrest brews in border region Ladakh over autonomy.
“Amid growing demands for greater autonomy and even statehood, clashes between police and demonstrators have left several dead and many arrested. DW went to Ladakh and spoke with local protesters about their demands and growing frustration with Delhi’s rule.”
https://www.dw.com/en/india-unrest-brews-in-border-region-ladakh-over-autonomy/video-74396687
“Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban avoid a deeper war for now, but how long can the peace hold?
“At the heart of the conflict is Islamabad’s claim the Afghan Taliban have been harbouring and aiding the Pakistani Taliban (also known as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP) in order to change Pakistan along the lines of the Taliban’s extremist Islamic rule in Afghanistan.”
“How Western sanctions on Iran have hurt the same middle class that drives reform.
““You can feel the difference between rich and poor more than ever; everything has become expensive, whether it’s bread or chicken. Meanwhile, you see people in luxury coffee shops, luxury restaurants,” said Elham, a schoolteacher in Tehran who is trying to make ends meet.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/19/middleeast/how-western-sanctions-iran-hurt-middle-class-intl
“Iraq’s debt hits $150 billion as central bank sounds alarm.
“A document issued by the CBI and seen by The New Arab has sparked public concern. Iraqis say whoever forms the next government after the 11 November parliamentary elections must set out a clear economic plan to shield the country from further financial shocks.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/iraqs-debt-hits-150-billion-central-bank-sounds-alarm
“‘It’s like a nuclear bomb has hit’: shocked Palestinians return home to desolation…
“The sheer scale of demolition left families with an awful dilemma: stay and seek shelter in the shattered stumps of their former homes, or return to the tented camps in the south where they had a better chance of finding food and water.”
“Palestinians in Gaza fear ceasefire ‘could collapse at any moment’.
“On Sunday, residents wondered if there was even still a ceasefire. Israel unleashed a wave of airstrikes targeting south, north and central Gaza in what it said was a response to an attack on its soldiers by Hamas militants earlier in the day.”
“In the occupied West Bank, the war continues…
“There are daily violent assaults on Palestinian farmers and their land. Since October 7, 2023, there have been 7,154 attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestian people and property – some of them deadly.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/10/18/in-the-occupied-west-bank-the-war-continues
“Tigray faces escalating irregular migration and gang violence amid fragile peace.
“The Tigray region of Ethiopia is grappling with a mounting security and social crisis, more than two years after the 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) marked the official end to widespread conflict. Despite the return of formal peace, new waves of gang activity and irregular migration among youth are transforming the landscape…”
“US jury finds French bank BNP Paribas liable for complicity in Sudan atrocities…
“A New York jury on Friday found that French banking giant BNP Paribas’ work in Sudan helped to prop up the regime of former ruler Omar al-Bashir, making it liable for atrocities that took place under the regime. The eight-member jury sided with three plaintiffs originally from Sudan…”
“Sahel-based jihadists are extending their reach. Can a fractured region push back?
“Millions of lives have been upended in the last two decades across the Sahel region – which stretches across a band of countries from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea – due to the actions of terror groups and other violent non-state actors.”
“Here’s what the US military has positioned as Trump pressures Venezuela…
“As of Tuesday, a significant percentage of all deployed US naval assets globally are also now located in US Southern Command, the US military’s command responsible for operations in the region, according to a fleet tracker published by the United States Naval Institute’s news portal.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/19/world/us-military-build-up-caribbean-trump-pressures-venezuela
“Colombia accuses US of ‘murder’ after strike on boat…
“In a social media post, Petro accused the US of violating his country’s sovereignty and killing a Colombian fisherman. Posting on X, he said: “The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure,” when it was struck.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8xg1jve73o
“Bolivia Votes for President to Confront Worst Crisis Since 1980s.
“Senator Rodrigo Paz [centre-right candidate has now won] and former President Jorge Tuto Quiroga both pledge to curb government spending and improve relations with the US, but have different approaches to stabilizing domestic finances. The winner is set to take office on Nov. 8…”
“How ‘conflict-free’ minerals are used in the waging of modern wars.
“For decades, military and paramilitary violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and on its borders – particularly with Rwanda – has been shaped and financed by control over some of these sought-after commodities. Many of these minerals, including those that have supposedly been sourced responsibly, are linked to violence at the other end of the supply chain too.”
https://theconversation.com/how-conflict-free-minerals-are-used-in-the-waging-of-modern-wars-266503
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
“…the US president tossed aside maps of the frontline in Ukraine, insisted Zelenskyy surrender the entire Donbas region to Putin, and repeatedly echoed talking points the Russian leader had made in their call a day earlier.”
It’s quite simple, really. If someone actually wanted the country they are funding and arming to stop fighting a war then they would have stopped funding and arming them. If they didn’t, while singing praises of universal peace and harmony all the livelong day, then they are lying with some ulterior purpose, e.g maintaining the “belligerent peacemaker” brand image that gets their constituency all hyped up and self-righteous and, possibly, horny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOvyebtrMOg
“… the “belligerent peacemaker” brand image.”
There are certainly some contradictions and inconsistencies in Trump’s modus operandi, Jupiviv. Tangentially related, I thought this was an intriguing proposal, if unlikely to come to fruition:
“A Russian investment envoy proposed that Elon Musk and The Boring Company build a “Putin-Trump” tunnel connecting Alaska and Russia through the Bering Strait.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/17/musk-trump-putin-tunnel-russia-alaska.html
Interesting overview on energy crisismanagement but with one blind fatal spot of the oil System:
Crisis Thinking Without a Sense of Time
Muflih Hidayat’s warning about the “OPEC+ spare capacity crisis” sounds persuasive: the world has barely four million barrels per day of emergency supply left, seventy percent of it controlled by just three Middle Eastern countries. One rocket strike on Basra, one blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and the global market could spiral into panic.
But behind this alarming now lies a quieter, deeper threat that is absent from almost every market analysis: the structural depletion of the world’s oil reserves.
What Hidayat describes is a crisis system within a constant volume. He treats the oil world as an elastic sphere that bounces back after every disturbance. The numbers look precise, the tables neat, the threat manageable. Only—the sphere itself is shrinking.
Each year, existing oil fields lose between five and six percent of their productive capacity. That means roughly five million barrels per day of new production must be added every single year—just to stand still. The much-celebrated new frontiers in Guyana, Namibia, and Brazil together barely replace what disappears elsewhere over the same period.
The market doesn’t see this erosion because it happens slowly and diffusely. It’s wear and tear, not explosion. Reports like Discovery Alert analyze the fluctuation of the moment, not the thermodynamics of the system. Spare capacity is measured as a percentage of production, not of reality—the finite source itself.
Thus, the crisis appears as a temporary imbalance, something solvable through more investment, better coordination, or improved technology. In truth, we are trapped in a time loop where every “solution” demands ever more oil to build, transport, and maintain.
The buffer is disappearing not only through geopolitics, but through entropy.
Zip, thank you for your thoughts on that.
It is pretty amazing that such a detailed article, flagging up oil-supply problems, somehow fails to mention actual, physical depletion. The closest it comes is acknowledging that some fields are “mature” and so require “enhanced recovery techniques”.
Also countries that are obviously in decline apparently aren’t, it’s just that they can’t economically increase production in the short term
Sorry for the second post but…
“Up to 15pc of the UK’s reduction in greenhouse gas emissions over the past two decades was a direct consequence of the closure of energy-intensive factories such as steelworks, according to data from the UK Emissions Trading Scheme.”
Do they mention how much of the reduction was an indirect consequence of offshoring? I think my free access quota for the Telegraph has been depleted and I can’t make an alt email right this minute.
Here ya go:
https://archive.vn/IvjZw
Use archive.vn to get behind most paywalls. No email address needed
Thanks that worked. Removepaywall is the one I always use but no luck with this one. And to answer my own question, they don’t mention indirect.
…a 15pc drop since 2004 with the majority of closures coming after 2019 when net zero by 2050 became law.
So it’s mainly looking at direct effects of the 2019 net zero law. If someone did analyse net contribution of globalized (incl but not limited to offshored) production/supply chains to reduction, it’d be a lot more than 15 pc.
The UK government would be very disinclined to acknowledge that perspective, Jupiviv, lest it be accused of impotently virtue-signalling.
This is my own contributton to music links.
I wonder how many native english speakers half my age have never heard this song.
I also wonder if this song was ever a hit in French speaking areas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NifeiFF2Ufo&list=RDNifeiFF2Ufo&start_radio=1
Curt, very nice – that one is new to me. This is my favourite Chicago track. It’s unashamedly schmaltzy but sometimes we need a bit of that:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bG6zpJ9GNY&list=RD5bG6zpJ9GNY&start_radio=1
“Most people have no idea what just happened.
On October 16th, 2025, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York quietly injected $8.35 BILLION into the financial system through something called a Repo Operation, and that’s just what they admitted publicly.
Nearly 80% of that was backed by mortgage-backed securities, not Treasuries.
Translation: the banks are running out of cash, and they’re now pawning off their riskiest assets just to get short-term liquidity.”
https://x.com/echodatruth/status/1979619716265050370?s=46
Thank you for that, Rusty. Good catch. I’ve also spotted rumblings on X about funding pressures in the repo market. Something to watch…
“If America’s banks crash, don’t count on a bailout…”
Bank management & stockholders & rich elites be warned; Be careful who you piss off.
I wouldn’t want to be in an elected position if this hits the fan.
I never watched “There Will Be Blood”?