Special sponsor for September is [you?]. Contact me here if you fancy helping me out and spending a month atop the C&E wall of fame.
“Stablecoins could trigger taxpayer bailouts, warns Nobel laureate.
“Jean Tirole, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, has warned about “insufficient supervision” of stablecoins and the possibility that governments will be forced into multibillion-dollar bailouts should the tokens unravel in a future financial crisis.”
https://www.ft.com/content/445e7fb6-1ec8-47f3-b74d-87f7960e85d6
“Gold Holds Near Record as Traders Weigh Fed Outlook, US Tariffs.
“Gold held just below a record as traders weighed the future of the Federal Reserve and uncertainty around US President Donald Trump’s tariffs ahead of key US jobs data due later this week.”
“Silver Nears Historic Levels, Supported by Investments and Global Tensions.
“Silver prices surged in both local and global markets last week, with the ounce closing at $39.61 (+2.2%), marking its highest level since August 2011. This rise was driven by growing expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut and sustained investment and industrial demand for the white metal.”
https://see.news/silver-nears-historic-levels-supported-by-investments-and-global-tensions
“Trump’s tariffs are headed to the US Supreme Court, prolonging the chaos on trade.
“In a 7-4 majority, the judges ruled Trump had exceeded his power by invoking emergency powers… The ruling will throw into disarray the strategies of trading partners still in negotiations with the US, who may decide to wait and see the outcome of the legal battle.”
“Rural America is suffering an economic crisis as crop prices plunge — ‘U.S. soybean farmers cannot survive a prolonged trade dispute’.
“Agricultural trade groups have sounded the alarm recently on the state of farmers, who are grappling with a continued slump in prices for their crops and worsening credit conditions. They have asked lawmakers to help increase access to export markets, including China, which is still locked in a trade war with the U.S.”
“Trade War Pushes Canada’s Current Account Deficit to Record,..
“The shortfall rose to C$21.16 billion ($15.4 billion) in the second quarter, Statistics Canada reported Thursday. That’s the largest since at least the early 1980s, and significantly deeper than the C$1.32 billion deficit recorded in the first three months of this year…”
“Japan eyes record spending requests on rising debt, social welfare costs.
“Japan’s government spending requests for next fiscal year will likely set a record for the third consecutive year, a draft of the requests obtained by Reuters showed on Monday, highlighting the challenge the country faces in fixing its dire finances.”
“South Korea heads for record stretch of growth trailing inflation.
“South Korea is poised for a fifth consecutive year in which economic growth lags behind inflation, stoking concern that Asia’s fourth-largest economy is sliding into a prolonged low-growth trap.”
https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2025/09/01/JKOKDVGWYZB4RABF7YK3X5LKYA/
“China property sales drop 17.6% in August, housing slump hits sixth straight month.
“The slump, now in its fifth year, has worsened since the second quarter as falling prices highlight the fading impact of last year’s stimulus push and raise fears of deflation.”
“Norway’s electricity crisis is about to hit Britain…
“There is a real chance that Norway will run out of water this winter, meaning it will not be able to maintain electricity supplies to Great Britain. Norway could be forced to restrict exports under new powers which allow them to be restricted if there is a prospect of hydrological shortages. And not just once the shortages manifest.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/31/norways-electricity-crisis-is-about-to-hit-britain/
“Tories pledge to get all oil and gas out of North Sea.
“Kemi Badenoch has said her party will remove all net zero requirements on oil and gas companies drilling in the North Sea if elected… She will claim that net zero measures mean households end up “paying the price through higher energy bills”.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp890n51684o
“France could be about to crash the global economy.
“…this could turn into far more than just a political drama in Paris. With worries about government debt and the affordability of lavish welfare systems rising all the time, France could be about to trigger a full-blown market crash.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/31/france-could-be-about-to-crash-the-global-economy/
“Germany’s Merz prepares for long war in Ukraine…
“”I’m mentally preparing myself for the fact that this war could drag on for a long time,” he told ZDF when asked if he was hopeful that a ceasefire could be reached next year. “We’re trying to end it as quickly as possible, but certainly not at the price of Ukraine’s capitulation.””
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-friedrich-merz-nato-ukraine-vladmimir-putin-russia/
“Italy’s new military spending: Bombs, bullets, the world’s longest bridge.
“Calling it a “monumental win” for the United States, President Donald Trump hailed a June commitment by NATO allies to boost defense spending. But along with a surge in munitions and tanks, the deal might usher in more creative “military” investments — including, perhaps, the world’s longest suspension bridge connecting Sicily to the boot of mainland Italy.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/31/italy-sicily-bridge-nato-military/
“Czechs Plan $14 Billion Deficit With Bigger Spending on Defense.
“The Czech government is proposing to increase the state budget deficit next year as the fiscally-conservative administration plans to boost spending on defense and a major energy project.”
“Poland plans record defense spending of 4.8 percent of GDP.
“Poland plans to increase its defense spending to 4.8 percent of gross domestic product next year – the highest figure within NATO. According to the government’s draft budget for 2026, around 200 billion zlotys (around 46 billion euros) have been earmarked for this.”
https://militaeraktuell.at/en/poland-plans-record-defense-spending-of-4-8-percent-of-gdp/
“Lithuania has installed so-called ‘dragon’s teeth’ on the border with Russia.
“Lithuania has completed the installation of so-called “dragon’s teeth” on its border with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, the Lithuanian Defence Ministry said on Saturday. This is the latest step in a series of defence measures taken by the Baltic country to deter Russian aggression.”
“Von der Leyen says Europe is drawing up ‘precise’ plans to send troops to Ukraine, FT reports.
“Europe is drawing up “pretty precise plans” for a multinational troop deployment to Ukraine as part of post-conflict security guarantees that will have the backing of U.S. capabilities, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the Financial Times in an interview published Sunday.”
“Kim Jong-un will provide ‘beautiful life’ to families of soldiers killed in Ukraine…
““My heart breaks and aches more at the sight of those little children,” he said. “I, our state and our army will take full responsibility for them and train them admirably as staunch and courageous fighters like their fathers,” he added.”
“China is set to unveil a ship-destroying hypersonic missile at a military parade, amid heightened tensions with the West…
“Details are shrouded in mystery but experts expect the weapon will be capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 8, or 6,100mph… Putin and Kim are expected to stay on and watch the military parade as guests of honour…”
“Taiwan reports surge in Chinese military activity near its territory.
“Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense on Monday said that it detected eight Chinese Military aircraft and six naval vessels and an official ship operating around its territory as of Monday (local time).”
“Indonesian finance minister’s home looted as protest anger grows.
“Southeast Asia’s biggest economy has been rocked by protests in major cities since the death of motorcycle taxi driver Affan Kurniawan, who was run over by police during a rally against financial perks for lawmakers.”
“Indonesia, Thai Stock Market Outlooks Buffeted by Political Risk.
“Intensifying protests in Indonesia and the latest leadership upheaval in Thailand are ratcheting up political risk in the two largest emerging stock markets in Southeast Asia… Thailand has struggled for decades to overcome political infighting…”
“US pressure may break Iranian influence in Iraq…
“The proposed American solution to absorb compliant units into the regular army while purging militia leaders from positions of authority represents nothing less than a comprehensive restructuring of Iraq’s security architecture.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/8/31/us-pressure-may-break-iranian-influence-in-iraq
“Lebanon’s speaker calls for national dialogue on Hezbollah’s weapons, criticizes US pressure…
“The Lebanese military will soon present a plan to the government on disarming Hezbollah by the end of the year, after President Joseph Aoun and most of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government endorsed a proposal by U.S. envoy Tom Barrack.”
“Druze Spiritual Leader Calls for Independence in Southern Syria Amid Rising Death Toll.
“Druze spiritual leader Sheikh al-Hijri calls for independence in southern Syria, citing 2,000 deaths in Sweida and failed negotiations with Damascus. He announced military and political preparations for self-determination.”
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/860970
“Gaza post-war plan envisions ‘voluntary’ relocation of entire population…
“The 38-page prospectus seen by The Washington Post envisions at least a temporary relocation of all of Gaza’s more than 2 million population, either through what it calls “voluntary” departures to another country or into restricted, secured zones inside the enclave during reconstruction.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/08/31/trump-gaza-plan-riviera-relocation/
“Yemen’s Houthi rebel group confirm their prime minister has been killed in Israeli airstrikes.
“The prime minister of Yemen’s Houthi government, Ahmad Ghaleb al-Rahawi, has been killed in an Israeli strike, according to a news agency run by the group. Several other ministers were killed in the strike, according to the Houthi-run agency, though they were not named.”
“Islamic State massacres in eastern DRC: who are the insurgents and why are they killing civilians?
“…Violence becomes a strategy to create fear among the locals to smooth forced recruitment, and ease the plundering of villages in new areas that the larger camps are fleeing to. For Islamic State Central African Province, violence against Christians serves both an instrumental and an ideological purpose.”
“Jihadists take control of strategic Mali town, trigger concern as they impose restrictions…
“Residents returning will have to pay a tax to the JNIM and accept its rules, notably a ban on secular music as well as on cigarettes and alcohol. Women will not be allowed to venture out without covering their heads.”
“Is Trump’s mission in Venezuela to fight drugs or to topple its leader?
“…Venezuela has complained to UN secretary-general António Guterres about the US deployment, claiming Trump is planning an attack. “It’s a massive propaganda operation to justify what the experts call ‘kinetic action’ — meaning military intervention,” Venezuela’s UN ambassador Samuel Moncada told reporters.”
https://www.ft.com/content/66251e3a-662e-4427-904d-2dc4304c36b5
“Guyana Says Election Ballot Boxes Attacked From Venezuela.
“Guyanese police and soldiers were shot at by unidentified persons in Venezuela while they were escorting ballot boxes on a river along the border to a remote area for Monday’s general elections, the security forces said in a statement.”
“Inside Haiti: where women are raped on the street and gangs rule…
“In the capital there is no accountability, no one in charge, no one who can fix things when they go wrong. In most of Port-au-Prince and its suburbs, where about a quarter of Haiti’s 12 million population live, the gangs are the only law.”
https://www.thetimes.com/world/latin-america/article/haiti-gangs-profile-qjl2b39c8
“How AI is helping a tiny Caribbean island make millions.
“Back in the 1980s when the internet was still in its infancy, countries were being handed their own unique website addresses to navigate this nascent new online world. Such as .us for the US or .uk for the UK. This included the small Caribbean island of Anguilla, which landed the address .ai. Unbeknownst to Anguilla at the time, this would become a future jackpot.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn5xdp427veo
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Someone wiser than me please weigh in on what all this militarization in Europe is about. Do they REALLY think Russia will invade or is it just the military-industrial complex flexing its muscle? I mean, so what if their citizens’ quality of life is going down the tubes, right? Just get a job at an armaments factory or join the military and you’ll be OK.
I guess Trump admin wanting them to pay their fair share of NATO defense but have all those decades of “defense”protected them from anything?
Cassandra, I think there are a few layers to this.
Especially in the parts of Europe that have been occupied by, or engaged in conflict with, Russians in living memory, the assessment of the threat Russia poses is not generally a cool-headed one. Real, atavistic fears are being triggered.
On a more rational level, I wonder if there is some nascent awareness amongst policy-makers (Macron’s comment about the end of the age of abundance springs to mind) that we are moving into an era where more conflict and competition over resources is baked into the cake. Rearmament would be a logical response to that.
Those profiting from arms-manufacturing are, of course, talking up the possibility of war with Russia for their own ends, but in a sense this is in the service of the deeper metabolic imperative of the global economic superorganism to increase its throughput of energy and resources any way it can, longer-term consequences be damned. Spending money improving the quality of citizens’ lives is a less immediately rewarding option, so it is deprioritised.
Quite how much economic activity/energy dissipation will be stimulated by countries going on a war-footing is an open question but Europe is running out of better options. Perhaps it is like AI in the sense that it is something of a “last roll of the dice,” promising growth but not actually delivering much of it.
A bit of this and that. Agreed.
Ultimately, we’re collectively hell bent on driving ourselves into extinction as fast as we can.
More bullets, more debt, more mindless consumerism let’s go!!!
3 big reasons for the “end of the age of abundance” in Europe (and “The West” generally):
1. Climate chaos and ecological collapse
THE PIE GETS SMALLER
2. Escalating wealth inequality.
THE SUPER RICH TAKE AN EVER GREATER SHARE OF THE PIE
3. Rising push back against neo-colonialism.
NOT SO EASY TO STEAL PIE FROM AFRICA ANYMORE
The 4th problem for Europe is the stated policy of the USA to prevent the rise of any competitors. To maintain full spectrum dominance.
A European industry fuelled by cheap Russian energy creates a threat comparable to China. So, it must be sabotaged. There is an actual US strategic policy paper listing more than a dozen ways to “annoy Russia”. Including making Ukraine into a threat: proposing NATO membership, rallying neo-Nazis in Ukraine against the ethnic Russian minority, setting up nearly 20 CIA bases, setting up about 40 laboratories in Ukraine studying disease pathogens (biological warfare?), etc. Anything to drive a wedge between Europe and Russia.
Thank you for your comment, Stephen. Another piece of the jigsaw is Europe’s ever greater reliance on energy imports, indigenous oil and coal production having peaked in 2004 and 2012 respectively. Although Russian energy was cheaper than the current arrangement, prices weren’t really low enough for Europe to remain competitive.
The European economy has been weakening relative to the US for a long time:
“This chart from Goldman Sachs highlights the overwhelming dominance of the US. Since the peak before the global financial crisis, US corporate profits have surged by 166% – far outpacing other regions. By contrast, the eurozone has barely moved, with corporate profits up only 8%, a particularly stark underperformance.”
https://x.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1962126082175369596
Remember also that in Germany, VW had suggested that they may have to close three factories in October last year.
Lo and behold !
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/vws-osnabrueck-plant-would-be-very-suitable-defence-production-rheinmetall-ceo-2025-03-12/
Peter, interesting. Google tells me that VW converted their factories to manufacture military vehicles, anti-personnel mines, and components for the Ju88 aircraft and V1 rockets back in WW2.
Hey Cassandra, like Pan, I see it as layered, but as 3 connected “fronts” of the same Single global conflict. The current Empire is in decline, as many Empires have declined before throughout history.
The current Empire, is around 500 years old, while it’s capital cities have moved a bit over time, their ideology of violent settler colonialism, enslavement and exploitation of others, has remained.. the current USA descended from Western European countries… Who colonised the other continents and the USA being the major one still standing at the end of WW2 took over the crown from Britain & Western Europe, who have remained as 2ics.. occasionally the Emperor gives these 2nds or sub-imperial powers delegated powers, as long as they remain loyal..Which the EU govts seems to be doing..against their own national & collective interests.
Who benefits? Not the EU people. These countries or leadership are not rational actors, they don’t give an FF about their own people, they are embedded in their bubble of late-stage capitalism & will loot the gravy train to its last dollar, and last Ukrainian or Moldovan etc….
But Russia…The hatred of Russia goes way, way, way back long before communist revolution or the Soviet era, or the Cold War… Under the feudal eras of royal families, Tsar’s etc.. Russia refused to be conquered by Western European powers who wanted that huge land mass and all it’s resources…
The Slavic races have often been called the “brown people of Europe” (along with the Irish LOL)
Even the earliest Tsar’s, Russia had the attitude of sure you can buy our stuff & we buy yours,in fair trade among equals, but we are not letting anyone steal it, like Western European countries stole chunks of Africa, Americas and Asia.
That hatred, especially with the Brits, and despite all those centuries of intermarried royal families, runs deep.. throw in modern hi-tech information warfare with slick Hollywood Style mind-washing tactics and revising history,, it’s embedded in their DNA.
A Russian historian recently remarked that Russia has been invaded by various Western European powers on average about twice per century over the last 500 years… Especially around the Black & Baltic Seas.
Historically they keep losing against Russia in military engagements, the few times they “won” (eg Crimean War), it was so Pryhic they withdrew and limped home with a paper Peace Treaty, but Russians just moved back in and rebuilt.
While the USA, currently holds the Crown of Empire, it is in decline, it can’t manage all 3 fronts, so has had to delegate some responsibility for the Russian “front” to its EU folks, who seem happy and willing, or at least their elites do.
The US Think Tank paper “Extending Russia” published (look it up on the Web, it’s not a secret) baldly states using Europe/proxies, Mercs etc to keep Russia pinned down in a “forever war” in Ukraine, so it can’t help out anywhere else. That’s why the Empires keep arguing for a ceasefire, to “freeze” the conflict.. for X many years, to rearm and resupply Ukraine to come back another day when Russia is weaker, and maybe work on “regime change” to install a puppet Russian govt who will be happy to sell off their resources to Western corps to loot in fire sale prices, and Russian people return to 3rd world poverty.
Well, under Putin’s govt, Russia will keep going until it gets what it wants.. a secure border zone with its European neighbours. Russia doesn’t want, or even need Europe, and couldn’t afford to go any further anyway. It didn’t even want the provinces it’s already taken.
As for regime change, they should be grateful for mild-mannered polite Putin, if they took him out, there are some worse hardliners who would take his place.
Rain, you are not wrong that there is a historical enmity between Britain and the Russian State, although not necessarily towards Russians as people.
However, your framing that paints Russia as a passive victim of foreign aggression ignores the reciprocal nature of international rivalries, and you omit to mention Russia’s own history of military expansionism in Scandinavia, the Baltic, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, the Ottoman Empire and Central Asia. It was actually from clashing imperial interests in the last two arenas that British animosity towards Russia stems.
I am not painting Russia as a passive victim, nobody is, it has long been a power with a 1,000 year history with ups and downs, sometimes projecting force on others, sometimes more focussed inside its own territories and not interested in bothering with the neighbours. And in some of the conflicts you mention, Russia was not the first aggressor – they were responding to aggression eg Lithuania-Poland was an aggressive Empire in its own right.
Even the Bay of Pigs crisis was started by the USA, which put nukes in Turkey first.. Russia then probly thought two can play that game. We’ll go tit-for-tat and put our nukes in Cuba…
Just like umpteen dozen other countries or civilisations with long histories.
In the current conflict though, I do believe Russia was provoked, in the decade before 2022 during the Ukraine Civil War years between East and West Ukraine who have also long hated each other. during WW2, West Ukraine was allied with Nazi Germany, (and Poland have just deported a bunch of West Ukrainians for replaying such behaviour) and the East were USSR allied.
The 2014 coup, stirred up the old east-west Ukraine divisions and became an 8-year civil war.
Took till 2022, When Russia finally decided they had to do something about the escalating militarised aggression against them.
Hello Cassandra, some remarks about your issue.
The Last Engine – How War Replaces the Economy
Russia – the frontal war economy
Moscow now spends nearly ten percent of its GDP on defense, often hidden in “civilian” budget lines. Factories are converted to arms production, fossil fuel revenues serve as fuel for the army. The Soviet tradition returns: civilian consumption shrinks, social sectors are squeezed, everything is subordinated to the front. Russia is the raw version of the war economy: open, visible, and barely disguised.
The EU – the creeping arms union
Brussels still presents itself as a peace project, but step by step a military infrastructure is emerging. Ammunition factories receive EU subsidies, joint procurement is organized, infrastructure is adapted for tanks. The defense industry gains priority access to raw materials and energy. The language remains diplomatic — “strategic autonomy” — but the practice is that of a permanent war logistics. Europe militarizes through the back door.
The US – the permanent complex
Since 1945 the military economy has been anchored in the structure of the United States. Officially 3 to 4 percent of GDP goes to defense, but including hidden items the figure is higher. Weapons companies are economic giants, technological innovation is deeply intertwined with defense. Left and right are divided on almost everything, except defense spending. The result: a stable, permanent military-industrial complex that keeps turning, in war or peace alike.
China – the dual strategy
Beijing officially spends around 2 percent of GDP on defense, but its real influence is far greater. China’s approach is different: defense industry and civilian industry are structurally fused. Shipyards build both container ships and warships. Electronics for consumers and for missiles come from the same clusters. Military expenditure is part of the broader development model: the “military-civil fusion.” For China, militarization is no exception but an integrated strategy to secure great-power status.
Together these four models form the core of one global dynamic: whenever economic growth stalls or social cohesion frays, energy shifts into defense. War — and the threat of war — thus becomes the last engine of a system struggling to keep itself alive.
Thank you for that rundown, Zip. Your last paragraph absolutely hits the nail on the head (as does Doom Wizard’s last sentence).
And the other problem with spending money and resources on weapons is that they will want to use them. No value in having them just sit there and rot…
🫤
Jpf, I guess there is value to the industrial supply chain that supplied them, even if they are not ultimately used. And the really insane weapons can remain unused but still have a deterrent effect. In theory.
Responding to Pan’s comment above:
On a more rational level, I wonder if there is some nascent awareness amongst policy-makers (Macron’s comment about the end of the age of abundance springs to mind) that we are moving into an era where more conflict and competition over resources is baked into the cake. Rearmament would be a logical response to that.
I think it is almost exclusively this, and of course the profit to be had and spent on trophy wives, mansions and sports cars in the meantime. I would say there is more than merely nascent awareness among the actual decision-makers, i.e the bureaucratic/technocratic mass of subaltern managers and those at the very top who are not merely trust fund babies, and probably even a few of the latter.
Where such noble and mighty personages might diverge from the likes of us would be 1> their refusal to acknowledge the totality of multiple interrelated crises 2> their firm belief in their ability to fix it, which is connected to the first point, i.e problems are only acknowledged selectively and usually self-servingly, so their solutions are likewise selective and self-serving.
Jupiviv, thank you for your thoughts. You may be right. It is frustrating not to have the inside track on this. How I would love to be a fly on the wall at some of these high level policy meetings.
This made me laugh… A lot..
I thought some others might get a giggle out of it too..
https://youtube.com/shorts/qATPpRMHV9w?si=-Rv0DqSjEzEsTibp
Good one, Rain. And many thanks to you, Pan, Doom, Stephen, Peter, jupiviv, jpf and Zip for all your thoughtful and interesting responses!