Huge thanks to August’s sponsor, Mick, who wishes to recommend the book “Wild Free and Happy” by Richard Adrian Reese, which can be downloaded for free here. You can also find it in the PDF resource section at the excellent Post-Doom website.
“The Fed’s future hangs in balance after Trump’s assault…
“Donald Trump’s decision to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook is a pivotal moment. It signals the US president’s switch from unpleasant name-calling of the Fed to an all-out assault on central bank independence. There is every reason to fear for the survival of a key pillar of US and global economic stability.“
https://www.ft.com/content/45acdbf8-9c60-4937-803d-41c358506907
“Trump can bully the Fed but he can’t bully the bond markets…
“He cannot force the global bond market to buy US treasuries and fund his debt. The Achilles’ heel of Trumpism is that the US has a net international investment position of minus $24.6 trillion, or 82pc of GDP. It has a personal savings rate of 4.7pc, a fraction of US post-war levels or of global levels, and is living off a constant supply of foreign credit to cover day to day spending.”
“Investors are getting so desperate to lighten their holdings of Japanese government bonds that some are willing to sell the securities at a discount to the central bank…
“Since the latest operations, benchmark 10-year yields have climbed to the highest since 2008 and rates on so-called super long debt have reached levels unseen since 1999. Yields are forecast to go even higher, with concerns growing over inflation, tighter monetary policy and fiscal expansion.”
“Britain’s debt crisis is a danger to democracy.
“The UK now has the highest level of debt since the early 1960s… ‘If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.’ This is what Herbert Stein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, once wrote. It’s accurate when we think about public debt.”
https://capx.co/britains-debt-crisis-is-a-danger-to-democracy
“Fears of the French Government Collapsing Send Its Borrowing Costs Soaring.
“France’s finance minister suggested that a cornerstone of the European economy might need help from the International Monetary Fund if a political and debt crisis were not addressed… The fall of France’s current government is highly likely and would weigh heavily on the country’s economy, ING Bank said in a note.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/business/france-government-collapse-economy.html
“The mood among German consumers continues to darken as the pressures besetting Europe’s largest economy take their toll on sentiment.
“A consumer-climate index published Wednesday by research groups GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions worsened for the third month in a row, falling to minus 23.6 in its forecast for September, down 1.9 points on August.”
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/german-consumers-feel-ever-gloomier-as-economy-slumps-895c2828
“Russian Troops Gain a Toehold in Another Ukrainian Region.
“Russian troops have captured two villages in the Dnipropetrovsk region, the first settlements they have taken in the south-central Ukrainian area in 3½ years of war, according to the battlefield map maintained by DeepState, a Ukrainian group with ties to the military.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/world/europe/russia-ukraine-villages-dnipropetrovsk.html
“Ukraine knocks out 17% of Russia’s oil refining capacity, creating shortages and disrupting exports…
“Ukraine’s targeted campaign is focused on refineries, oil depots and military-industrial sites. This way Kyiv disrupted Moscow’s ability to process and export oil. Ukraine’s campaign also created shortages in some Russian regions and in Moscow-annexed Crimea.”
“China’s industrial profits extend decline as demand, deflation woes take toll…
“Beijing has ramped up infrastructure spending and consumer subsidies, alongside steady monetary easing, though weak business and consumer confidence has dragged on demand and the broader economy. China’s July bank loans unexpectedly contracted for the first time in 20 years.”
“North Korea accuses South Korea of ‘deliberate provocation’ after warning shots fired at soldiers on border.
“South Korea fired warning shots at North Korean soldiers who briefly crossed the heavily fortified border earlier this week, Seoul said on Saturday, after Pyongyang accused it of a “deliberate provocation” that risks “uncontrollable” tensions.”
“Taiwan’s denial of communist role in World War Two is ‘blasphemy’, China says.
“China said on Wednesday Taiwan was “blaspheming” the sacrifices of those who died fighting Japan in World War Two by denying the pivotal role of the communist party and denounced Taipei’s call for Taiwanese to stay away from Beijing’s commemorations.”
“China biggest security concern to Filipinos amid sea tensions: poll.
“Widespread local scepticism towards China and strong backing for Manila’s claims in the South China Sea are set to shape Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s foreign policy choices, as his camp looks to maintain influence ahead of the 2028 election.”
“Protests erupt in Indonesia over privileges for parliament members and ‘corrupt elites’.
“Riot police have fired water cannon and rounds of teargas at thousands of stone-throwing protesters in Indonesia’s capital as anger over the lavish allowances of parliament members has fuelled public anger.”
“Rohingya refugees face uncertain future 8 years after fleeing Myanmar: ‘Are our lives not as important?’
“…Bangladesh is sheltering around 1.2 million Rohingya Muslim refugees – half of them children – who have fled waves of violence in Buddhist-majority Myanmar. Of these, some 700,000 came in a huge exodus beginning on 25 August 2017, travelling by foot and by boat amid indiscriminate shelling, massacres, and the torching of entire villages in Rakhine state.”
“Trump’s 50% tariff on India kicks in as Modi urges self-reliance.
“Donald Trump’s steep 50% tariffs on India have kicked in, weeks after the US president issued an executive order imposing an additional 25% penalty on India over its purchases of Russian oil and weapons.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ykznn158qo
“Kashmir’s double burden: Climate change and conflict.
“This month, flash floods hit the Himalayas once again, particularly affecting Pakistan and India. Kashmiris are among those affected, adding another crisis to an already strife-torn region… Recent events have also underscored the compounding effects of climate change.”
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/kashmir-s-double-burden-climate-change-conflict
“US troops have begun withdrawing from two key Iraqi bases, according to regional media reports, in a sign that the Trump administration is following through with plans to end American military presence in Iraq.
“The US began a sudden withdrawal from Ain al-Asad base in Anbar province and the Victory Base Complex, located within the Baghdad International Airport, on Sunday…”
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-troops-begin-withdrawal-key-iraqi-bases
“Israel to keep troops in Syrian territory, defence minister says.
“Israel’s defence minister has said his country’s military will remain on Syrian territory around Mount Hermon “to protect” Israeli towns and villages, vowing to hold land seized from its neighbour even as the pair engage in US-mediated talks over a security agreement.”
https://www.ft.com/content/0a0b7caf-f874-4ee7-b04d-e436c26c4106
“Israeli protesters stage ‘day of disruption’ calling for end to war in Gaza.
“Tens of thousands of people took part in demonstrations across Israel on Tuesday, blocking highways on a “day of disruption” that aimed to push Benjamin Netanyahu into agreeing a deal to end the war and calling off plans to attack Gaza City.”
“Yemen: Hostilities escalate between Israel and the Houthis.
“Israeli fighter jets carried out a massive air strike on the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Sunday. According to the Israeli army (IDF), several military targets were hit: a complex also housing the presidential palace, two power stations and a fuel depot.”
https://www.dw.com/en/yemen-escalation-in-hostilities-between-israel-and-the-houthis/a-73774765
“North Darfur capital reels under bombardment, ethnic killings, and mounting hunger.
“Reports indicate that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attacked the North Darfur capital of El Fasher, bombarding residential areas and camps for displaced people as warnings of famine and ethnic killings mounted, in the past two days.”
“Botswana’s president declares health emergency over supply shortages…
“The president, Duma Boko, said in a televised address on Monday night that the country’s medical supply chain had failed, as he announced 250m pula (£13.8m) in funding for emergency medicines, the distribution of which would be overseen by the military.”
“Pregnancy has become a nightmare for many women in Nigeria’s conflict-hit north.
“Aisha Muhammed was in the third trimester of her pregnancy when she had the convulsions and high blood pressure of eclampsia, a leading cause of maternal death. Her village’s only health clinic had no doctor, and the only medical help was 40 kilometers (25 miles) away in one of the world’s most dangerous places.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/nigeria-africa-boko-haram-united-states-aid-workers-b2813955.html
“Ivory Coast Attack Leaves Four Dead, Highlighting Growing Threat.
“Four people died in an attack by unidentified assailants in northern Ivory Coast, one of several coastal states facing a growing threat by militants in West Africa’s Sahel region. The gunmen who raided a small farming hamlet about 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) from Ivory Coast’s northern border with Burkina Faso…”
“Washington trades military support to Sahel juntas for access to mineral wealth.
“Under President Donald Trump the United States has reset relations with west Africa’s military leaders on a mutual back-scratching basis, bartering help fighting jihadists for the Sahel region’s mining riches, experts say.”
“Venezuela deploys warships, drones to coast as US naval squadron nears.
“Venezuela’s defence minister says military vessels and drones will be sent to patrol the country’s coastline amid simmering tension with the United States after Washington deployed warships to waters off Venezuela to fight drug trafficking.”
“At least 34 Colombian soldiers kidnapped after clashes with FARC dissidents.
“At least 34 government soldiers have been kidnapped by armed civilians in a jungle in southeastern Colombia after clashes that killed 11 fighters, including a commander of a dissident faction of the former FARC rebel group, Defence Minister Pedro Sanchez says.”
“Colombia and Peru Navigate Rising Tensions Over a Shifting Amazon Island.
“Under the dense humidity of the Amazon basin, where the river’s surface hides slow but constant change, Colombia and Peru are now locked in a dispute over a patch of land that wasn’t even here a century ago. Born from the river’s restless current, the island has become a diplomatic flashpoint…”
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Banks accept money from clients.
Clients choose to put their money into a bank that gives them a reasonable return on their money/investment.
Countries accept money from investors, investors “buy” gilts.
Although at any one time a bank could not cope with everyone removing their deposits, we tend not to run around saying the sky is falling in. Neither do we say a bank is up to it’s neck in debt.
Very peculiar, this idea that having heaps of rich people, including oligarchs, invest in a country is something to be avoided, is called debt.
Last time I looked Japan has investments of over 150% of it’s GDP.
If the rich (oligarchs) are removing their money,there is more to this than meets the eye.
I assume they are stuffing it in cyber currency and/or buying up the area that will become their fiefdom post global collapse. Streuth, I should really avoid reading Thiel!
Mad Hatter, tired brain is having trouble grasping your point.
“If the rich (oligarchs) are removing their money, there is more to this than meets the eye.”
What are the rich removing their money from?
Think they are off loading gilts? Was there a sell off of bonds?
I remember it happening in UK back in January this year.
Seems like a Damascus sword that countries can be threatened with if they do not toe-the-line.
“I have put millions into your country, so that you can use it to keep your infrastructure going, but mess me about …”
We were playing with non-dom tax back in January.
And Musk was flexing his nerd Reich.
Pleasant podcast here re the nerds, and their daft plans:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/audio/2025/aug/22/the-nerd-reich-how-tech-billionaires-infiltrated-trumps-white-house-podcast?ref=thenerdreich.com
I was hoping you would comment on debt v savings.
Or was I too vague?
The lovely thing about lowering interest rates is that it allows super rich, would-be oligarchs to borrow heaps of money from banks (get banks to invest in them) thus allowing the purchase of swathes of property, businesses, accomodation, farmland, etc.
It is so amazing how far these people will go in their terror of taxes, embracing sociocide, pollution, wars, climate crisis, anger, terror …
I have been a tad bit gutted to realise just what a corrupt bunch our royal family is, wending my way through Entitled, and amazing at Andrew’s day to day commitment to making deals. Echoes of Trump in more ways than one
I was never much of a royalist, Mad Hatter, although whether or not to have a monarchy has always struck me as a bit of a cosmetic issue, so I haven’t felt strongly about it.
However, Fergie and Andrew’s conduct has been exposed by that book you mention as so venal, greedy, arrogant and licentious that I am starting to turn republican. 😆
Apparently Boris Johnson commented, after a short time in Andrew’s company, that any more time spent with him would turn him into a Republican!
I’ve finished the book now and I am just appalled. I’ll be practising my knitting! 😂
Ahh, to be young and free
Millennials, Gen Z renters forego restaurants, skip meals to afford rent: Redfin survey
Katlyn Fernandez..
https://www.wfla.com/news/national/millennials-gen-z-renters-forego-restaurants-skip-meals-to-afford-rent-redfin-survey/amp/
The real estate brokerage company said 70% of Millennials and Gen Z renters surveyed said they were struggling
Many Gen Zers and millennials are making real sacrifices—picking up side gigs, selling their possessions, even delaying doctor’s appointments—just to pay for the basic need of housing,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. “At the same time, a lot of the young people who can easily afford housing can do so because they have major financial support from their parents, with roughly one-quarter of the young Americans who recently bought a home using family money for their down payments. With the cost of buying a home rising much faster than wages, people without access to family money are much more likely to struggle to pay for housing—which could widen the gap between the haves and the have-nots in the future.”
Redfin reported there are some bright spots emerging: affordability has started to improve in some parts of the U.S.
“Mortgage rates have dropped to a 10-month low, buyers have more purchasing power, and fewer homes are selling above asking price. Redfin agents report many sellers are willing to negotiate as they take note of today’s buyer’s market, in which there are hundreds of thousands more home sellers than buyers,” Redfin said.
Good times are just around the corner…I promise
Thanks, Vince. My sense is that the US economy is increasingly bifurcated with lower-income households really struggling.
Re eating out: “Bars and restaurants bringing back recession specials could be the latest sign of deteriorating consumer sentiment…
““Young people are feeling just as bad about the economy as older folks, and in some months they feel even worse than older folks,” she said. “Across the age distribution, people agree that the trajectory of the economy has soured.””
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/23/recession-specials-could-be-the-latest-sign-of-deteriorating-consumer-sentiment.html
It’s ugly and getting uglier.
Cassandra..yes it does…had to post this one today for tomorrows thread..
TR can jump on it
When NASA was founded back in 1958, its charter explicitly declared “that activities in space should be devoted to peaceful purposes for the benefit of all mankind.” For decades, success meant a mix of spaceflight, crewed exploration, robotic exploration, education activities, and science across four major disciplines: Earth science, astrophysics, planetary science, and heliophysics. In a galling announcement made in August of 2025, NASA’s acting chief, Sean Duffy, declared the intention to abandon all non-spaceflight and exploration-related activities, defying the agency’s charter. Will anyone act to save the heart of NASA?
the actions of the administration here in 2025 have been consistent with that ideology: to end funding for NASA science, including all of NASA Earth sciences, as well as NASA education and public outreach. Earlier in 2025, the Trump administration released their budget plan for the 2026 fiscal year (which begins October 1st), and it called for astounding, unprecedented cuts to NASA science
…Explicitly, Duffy himself stated,
“All the climate science and all of the other priorities that the last administration had at NASA we’re going to move aside
https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/nasa-chief-defy-charter-science/
Tariffs are sales tax on consumers.
Someone please show me that politics & dumbass voters have no affect on the economy.
Sean Duffy – 53, Republican, former sports commentator and reality television personality.
Rep/Cons don’t need no stynking ciyence. It is going to be sad to see the tears running down Duffy’s & his wife’s faces as they watch his 9 fossil fuel burning children suffer until their extinction
Trump: “I love the uneducated.” That’s a lot of love for 77 million willfully ignorant voters.
I’m waiting for aliens to visit & tell this species that it has 24 hours to clean up all the trash that it has dumped into space. Wonder if the monkey minds can return Voyager 1 & 2 & all the other trash back to earth in 24 hours?
“Billionaires pay a lower tax rate than the rest of America’s taxpayers, new study finds” – CBS
Bumper sticker: “If you are so damn smart, why aren’t you rich.” Losers pay more taxes. I apologize, again, it’s not the masses fault because they are not billionaires? Well, whose fault is it? Let’s blame it on the stupid gene.
Let me stroke egos to ease the pain of being losers. Bless your hearts & baboon brains. 😉