Huge thanks to Gerry for being this month’s sponsor. He has asked me to post the following: Still alive in ’25 – we’re all in this together! Find supportive community and resources at postdoom.com (founded by Michael Dowd; RIP).
“The 365-day running mean for the global surface temperature anomaly is back over 1.60°C, and the daily is back over 1.80°C.
“The Paris Agreement is yesterday’s news. The climate of the future is happening now.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lg6kizo6wc2y
“‘Unusual’ and weak La Niña confirmed, [theoretically] offers cooling respite after record El Niño…
““It’s unusual to see a strong atmospheric component of La Niña without the corresponding cooler-than-average tropical Pacific surface temperature,” Emily Becker, associate director of NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, told Mongabay.”
https://news.mongabay.com/short-article/unusual-and-weak-la-nina/
“Daily global surface temperature updates were delayed a few days. They were finally posted this morning. And the records keep on falling.
“So glad El Nino is over and La Nina is helping cool things down…” 🙄 [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lg6fpu5xek2q
“In case you had any doubt, the near perfect fit of the quadratic trendline makes it clear: global sea surface temperatures are accelerating.
“The current rate of warming is about 0.32°C/decade, which comes out to somewhere around 275 million Hiroshima bombs worth of ocean heating in 2025.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lg45aqe6p22u
“It seems like Sea Surface warming is accelerating faster than Land Surface warming.
“Might this relative warming gap shrink in the years ahead? Changes in ‘land-sea temperature gradients’ strongly impact regional weather!” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1880936558448312713
“Trump Signs Orders to Promote Fossil Fuels and End Climate Policies.
“The president said he’d declare an energy emergency, increase drilling and end support for electric cars. His pivot to oil and gas follows the hottest year in recorded history.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/20/climate/trump-emergency-oil-gas.html
“‘Chilling effect’ spreads to European asset managers over climate even as risks rise…
“Several European asset managers said they had received letters from Republican states threatening legal challenges to their focus on ESG [Environmental, Social and Governance] issues including any potential exclusion of fossil fuel investments.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e2bc352b-aa8c-41fc-87b4-b61b676cfcbf
“While nearly 100% of Mainland USA is colder than average, it’s just the opposite in Alaska, which is living a beyond exceptionally mild month. Yesterday Tmaxes (via Rick Thoman) shows anomalies up to +50F above average at Deadhorse.
“Monthly record tied with 41F at Umiat.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1881377339613106411
“Potentially historic winter storm could cripple parts of Deep South…
“Heavy snow and ice will fall in eight states from Texas to the Carolinas late Monday into Wednesday, leading to dangerous conditions in places where the severity of snowfall could be historic.”
“Grand Canyon experiencing driest winter on record.
“…the Grand Canyon is experiencing its driest winter on record, with only a trace amount of precipitation recorded so far at the Grand Canyon Airport. This marks a stark contrast to the usual winter weather patterns the park is accustomed to.”
“‘Everyone needs to be on high alert,’ mayor says, as a new burst of dangerous winds bears down on Los Angeles…
“The Storm Prediction Center declared an “extremely critical” fire zone, its highest alert level, for the San Gabriel Mountains northeast of Los Angeles and surrounding areas, including the Malibu coast.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/20/us/new-santa-ana-winds-la-fires-monday/index.html
“Reinsurance retreat deepens California wildfire insurance crisis…
“California’s insurance framework may struggle to adequately address coverage needs for wildfires in Los Angeles, creating potential coverage gaps while leaving reinsurance companies largely unaffected.”
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN MEXICO – record heat in the Gulf of Mexico with January records smashed:
“35.9 Rio Verde 990m asl, 33.6 Orizaba 1260m asl; In the Pacific: 37.0 Salina Cruz AP. All the tropics are smashing record after record, the opposite of what [usually] happens during a Nina.“
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1880786924748898567
“CARIBBEAN ENDLESS RECORD HEAT – two years breaking and re-breaking every record in the Caribbean and it’s just getting worse: All Nino records are being smashed one by one.
“Today it was the hottest night ever recorded at SINT EUSTATIUS (Dutch Caribbean) with a minimum of 25.7C [78.3F].”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1881030135517986865
“A strong fire breaks out in Siachoque, Boyacá [Colombia].
“The situation is critical at the site, because the conflagration is occurring at 3,800 meters above sea level , preventing helicopters from arriving with support to try to prevent the fire from spreading.”
https://www.kienyke.com/regiones/fuerte-incendio-se-presenta-en-siachoque-boyaca
“Colombia hails Türkiye’s help for flood-stricken areas…
“Colombia declared a national state of emergency in November due to heavy rains and floods that affected more than 195,000 people in La Guajira region alone.”
https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/colombia-hails-turkiyes-help-for-flood-stricken-areas
“Brazil drought lights a fire under global coffee prices…
“Moacir Donizetti… was one of hundreds of farmers hit by a brutal forest fire in Sao Paulo state, where years of soaring heat and erratic rains are set to drive up the cost of an espresso or latte far afield in Paris, New York or Tokyo.”
“Brazil is experiencing a record temperature of 41.5°C [106.7F] so far this year.
“Rio de Janeiro, Brazil – January 19, 2025 After the year’s record temperature of 41.5°C with a heat index of 46.7°C this Saturday, Rio de Janeiro continues to experience intense heat. This Sunday, the maximum temperatures reached 41°C.”
“Five days after the forest fire broke out in Epuyén, Chubut [Argentina] and the fire continues out of control.
“More than 3,000 hectares of forests and plantations have already burned, and the situation remains critical. Yesterday, a new fire started in Atilio Viglione…”
“High fertiliser use halves numbers of pollinators, world’s longest study finds…
“Bees were most affected – there were over nine times more of them in chemical-free plots compared with those with the highest levels of fertiliser, according to the paper, published in the journal npj Biodiversity.”
“Europe’s farming crisis: who will grow our food?
“…Europe’s agricultural sector is at a tipping point. The average farmer is 57 years old, and with 1,000 farms closing every day, the future of food production looks to be increasingly in jeopardy.”
“Danish carbon tax on agriculture essential for climate, minister says…
““We need to be more efficient in the way we produce food with the land we have,” Jeppe Bruus told Euractiv… But with farmers’ protests continuing amid a backlash against the EU’s green policies, there may be little political space for them to push their carbon pricing model.”
“RED WARNING | Andévalo and Condado (province of Huelva, Spain) Extreme danger due to very heavy rain. In some localities in the area, more than 120 l/m² have accumulated in less than twelve hours. [AEMET announcement]
“In force until 00:00 on Tuesday. Please take extreme precautions!”
https://x.com/AEMET_Esp/status/1881456476214141152
“Snow and torrential rains fell on Friday in several regions of Algeria.
“Many people, surrounded by water, were saved by the Civil Protection, while the National Gendarmerie launched an appeal to Algerians, asking them to avoid traveling…”
https://www.tsa-algerie.com/tempete-de-neige-la-gendarmerie-lance-un-appel-aux-algeriens-video/
“Endless record heat in GHANA – new January record at Akim Oda with 36.6C [97.9F].
“All stations of the country have been breaking records continuously since October. And the heat will just get worse…”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1880988538541629770
“Torrential rain results in flooding of graves and collapsed headstones in Johannesburg cemeteries.
“Affected areas include Avalon Cemetery in Soweto, Waterval Cemetery in Midrand, Olifantsvlei in the far south of the city, and Westpark Cemetery in Emmarentia… This is a global phenomenon relative to increasing rainfall.”
“Exodus in Maysan, drought hits Southern Iraq hard.
“Al-Azair district in southern Maysan province is facing severe water shortages, which have led to a population migration toward the provincial center, Kazem Daryoul, the district’s director said on Monday.”
https://shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Exodus-in-Maysan-drought-hits-Southern-Iraq-hard
“Heavy rain in Gilan began on Wednesday evening [Iran] and caused flooding, which caused heavy damage to water, electricity and gas infrastructure in Talesh…
“In the pictures below, you can see the damage caused by the flood in the villages of Kharjgil-Asalem, Gilan province.”
https://www.jahannews.com/gallery/643214/2/advenfb8.h8$jelbb9g1j.html
“Glacier Melt: A Water Crisis Brewing In Kashmir.
“Kashmir is witnessing a stark transformation. The glaciers that fed its rivers for centuries are retreating at alarming rates, directly impacting water availability across the region… the Kolahoi glacier, the largest in the Kashmir Valley, has lost approximately 23% of its mass over the past few decades…”
https://kashmirobserver.net/2025/01/20/glacier-melt-a-water-crisis-brewing-in-kashmir/
“India-Bangladesh water stand-off…
“The water-sharing disputes with India go far beyond environmental challenges; they are entrenched in deep-seated political asymmetries, historical grievances, and the volatile geopolitics of a region fraught with competing ambitions.”
https://www.newagebd.net/print/post/255815
“Dry materials on forest floor and drought are stoking forest fires [Nepal].
“Climate change and weakening link between the public and forests due to migration are amplifying risks, experts say… What has left officials much concerned now is the lack of rainfall for a prolonged period.”
“Nepal’s citrus industry struggles against climate change.
“…for 40-year-old Bal Kumari Thapa, this season now stirs bitter memories and growing anxiety. Her once-thriving citrus orchards, a key source of income, have been reduced to ashes, a casualty of rising global temperatures and shifting climate patterns.”
“This winter, China has had abnormally little precipitation.
“So far, there has been no precipitation for 30 to 60 days in eastern China. The last time it rained in Shanghai was on December 12, and Guangzhou on November 26.”
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/1881310682895073326
“RECORD WARMTH IN HOKKAIDO [Northern Japan].
“Records for January smashed today: 7.0 [44.6F] Nakashibetsu, 8.4 Betsukai, 8.3 Nosappu, 7.6 Atco, 9.0 Nakateshibetu, 7.9 Ota, 6.5 Kamishihoro, 6.9 Komaba, 8.2 Ikeda, 7.6 Kamishibetsu. In Miyagi Prefecture also record at Onagawa with 13.3C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1881259710860730619
“Super snowy winter in Sukayu [890m], Japan!
“Snow depth of 438 cm [172 inches] on Jan. 17, new monthly record [1980-2025], surpassing 434 cm in 2022. A reminder that the Dec. record was already broken last month with 357 cm [national Dec. record].”
https://x.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1880802251427782818
“More exceptional warmth in Indonesia and Malaysia with MINIMUM temperatures locally >28C [82.4F].
“The Sumatran town of Gunungsitoli, which has one of the world’s most stable climate, had its hottest January night on record with a minImum of 25.2C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1881161545440510259
“Indonesia experienced its hottest year on record in 2024, the country’s weather agency said Friday, matching several other nations which have reported similar rises in temperature…
“The average air temperature in 2024 was 27.5 degrees Celsius (81.5 Fahrenheit), some 0.8 degrees Celsius warmer than between 1991 and 2020…”
https://al24news.com/en/indonesia-says-2024-was-hottest-year-on-record/
“Landslides and flash floods on Indonesia’s Java island leave 17 dead and 8 missing.
“Indonesian rescuers have recovered the bodies of at least 17 people who were swept away in flash floods or buried under tons of mud and rocks that hit hilly villages on the country’s main island of Java.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/indonesia-ap-java-jakarta-west-java-b2683363.html
“Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) confirmed that eight people died in the landslides that hit two areas in Bali…
“BNPB appealed to the public to be aware of light to heavy rain accompanied by lightning which still has the potential to hit most areas of Bali Province.”
https://en.tempo.co/read/1966292/bnpb-says-8-people-died-in-bali-landslide-disaster
“Tropical Cyclone Sean has caused record-breaking rain while intensifying to a category three storm off the northern coast of Western Australia…
“Karratha recorded 274.4mm of rainfall in the 24 hours to 9am, which was the wettest day on record in any month… Yesterday’s rainfall total exceeded the town’s entire monthly January rainfall record of 263.4mm.”
“Western Australians have faced brutal record-breaking temperatures with Perth hitting a 10-year high of 43.6C and Geraldton hitting a record of 49.3 [120.7F] with Queensland now set to brace for a “severe heatwave”…
“”Geraldton equalled the record that was set just last year. 49.3 degrees. Some incredible heat on the west coast.””
“Residents in Western Australia have been warned about a rare infection which can result in death as a heatwave engulfs large swathes of the state…
“The infection, caused by Naegleria fowleri, “can cause inflammation and destruction of brain tissue” if forced into the nose through warm freshwater.”
“Drought and some of the driest conditions on record across South Australia are making it extremely difficult for the state’s dairy farmers this season.
“South Australian Dairyfarmers’ Association president Rob Brokenshire said things were tough, and the situation had been exacerbated by lack of hay and consequent high prices.”
https://www.dairynewsaustralia.com.au/news/drought-hurting-sa-farmers/
“Aviation growth ‘will counteract’ emissions reduction efforts…
“The report warns that current industry growth projections “will counteract most efforts” to reduce aviation emissions and suggests: “Sustainable aviation fuels are only a viable solution without exponentially growing levels of traffic.””
https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/air/aviation-growth-will-counteract-emissions-reduction-efforts
“Businesses ‘recalibrating climate goals as AI pushes emissions higher’.
“New research has found that while nearly half of business executives believe that the use of generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) is increasing their emissions, only one in eight businesses are currently able to effectively tracking this.”
https://www.edie.net/businesses-recalibrating-climate-goals-as-ai-pushes-emissions-higher/
“Scientists Cast Doubt on Atmospheric Methane Removal Technology…
“A new study from University of Utah researchers has raised significant concerns about a proposed climate intervention that would spray hydrogen peroxide into the atmosphere to combat global warming.”
https://scienceblog.com/553284/scientists-cast-doubt-on-atmospheric-methane-removal-technology/
“Davos climate activists paint Amazon base green, disrupt helicopters…
“Swiss police swarmed to close down both protests as global business and political leaders descended on the mountain resort on the opening day of the meeting, where demonstrations over fossil fuels and climate change have become a regular feature.”
“Arctic sea-ice extent is once again at a record low for the day. Maximum extent typically happens at the end of February or early March.
“Will we hit a new record-low maximum this year? The climate 8-ball says: “F&%king bloody hell, leave me alone!”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lfzfuszrtc27
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
A brave new world starts today as a new Don is installed. My cyclone in WA cements it all in my memory.
Please Harry don’t use Sky News as a source, plenty of respectable sources exist. They are a major source of anti-climate-change propaganda across Australia.
In rural communities the news is either them, Murdoch gossip and little else. It’s very beneficial to our rural gerrymander.
Here’s a better source
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-21/wild-weather-in-wa/104841674
I’ll do my best, Sean. It’s weird because, even though middle-of-the-road Sky UK was sold to Comcast and no longer has ties with Murdoch, it still shares branding with Sky News Australia, so it is easy for me to forget how different they are in politics and worldview.
Ah but you forget! The temperature of the UK has changed constantly over the past several thousand years. The Romans grew wine there!
I have defeated your argument, which means reality is exactly how I want it to be and there is nothing whatsoever to worry about. Well, except for the problems that can be solved within the horizon of my class interests. So let’s all unite against our common enemy – AI and the evil woke trans elites.
(/sarcasm, in case I wasn’t hamfisted enough)
Don’t worry, Jupiviv. Your sarcasm was detected. The tired denier trope that anthropogenic climate change is not real or cause for alarm because the climate has always changed, which it certainly has, is just time-wasting illogic.
The Roman Warm Period did indeed see viticulture as far north as Hadrian’s Wall, but it was likely a regional phenomenon rather than a global one. These are bad times for wine, globally, with last year seeing the lowest production since 1961. Meanwhile, the UK is potentially poised to benefit (unless AMOC has other plans):
“Wines from the north of England and Scotland are the future, French experts say. Climate change means the best terroirs for wine-growing are shifting dramatically, with northern Europe gaining while the south loses.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/20/scottish-and-northumbrian-wines-are-the-future-say-french/
We left the Paris Climate Accord again.
We’re officially done.
Doom Wizard, I don’t believe it will make much difference to our trajectory, but the optics are dispiriting nonetheless.
Personally, I think the Paris Agreement was insignificant from the start. It was full of promises that were not monitored effectively enough to level any significant verification. Perhaps it was successful in part but promises from governments and politicians are as worthless as a fart in the wind. Since the first warnings from the likes of Carl Sagan addressing congress in 1985 and James Hansen in 1988, nothing significant has been done to lessen the impacts we are going to see from climate change. The corporations (Big Wheels) have too much power and influence and civilization itself is requiring more and more energy every day.
Creedence Clearwater Revival – Proud Mary
I quote from Nate Hagen’s “Beyond the Superorganism” paper often, so I hope I am not being a stuck record, but it is very helpful for understanding why we so consistently fail to put a meaningful dent in emissions:
“Because of the direct linkage of human economies to ‘fire’ and fire to carbon, climate change and ocean acidification are – and will likely remain – directly linked to the metabolism of human economies. A central finding in the AR5 climate assessment was that the single largest driver of emissions globally was growth in income.
“The tight power-law relationship described above infers that current levels of economic consumption would not be feasible without fossil carbon and hydrocarbon consumption. In an economic system dependent on energy to grow, motivating voters to choose to keep carbon in the ground is akin to arguing with a forest fire.”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800919310067
Hello Pan… I have been breathlessly reading today all the ‘oukazes’ Trump has enacted… let’s see how American complex society reacts to all this nonsense.
I haven’t had time to follow the day’s events in detail, Zip, but it looks like the cat is among the pigeons. I thought he’d be more emollient towards Putin; I think that is what has surprised me most from what I’ve seen.
Time for some humor.
Breaking News: 4+ inches of Snow in New Orleans; President Trump Solves Climate Change on First Day in Office
Totally normal snow in Florida coming and ice. Nothing to see here move along.
Who cares about climate? Eggs are $.87/doz., gasoline $1.43/gal., we have the best healthcare, safest streets, no poor citizens, no immigrants, sorry about the disappearance of Latino food trucks. All this in one day. Tariffs tomorrow? That’s how one gets the job done. Almost forgot about the massive wealth from Don & Melania meme symbols. Calling these crypto could be a legal problem.
I’m on a roll! Now every Dem, Independent, Progressive & legal person of color will be able to invoke their second Amendment rights. They need to buy all the guns & ammo they can, so they can protect America from the domestic enemies of political parties that think they are immune to high speed hot lead. It’s great that we have a political party that will not try to infringe of Americans’ right to “keep & bear”. Buying guns helps the gun businesses. If the 75 million radical, leftist, liberals buy guns, that has to be a boost to the economy. Nothing wrong with helping gun nut stores, your money certainly won’t be turned down. It’s always about the money. Locked & loaded can take out that illegal, terrorist AGW, so we have nothing to fear.
This is not the time to say, “Shoot the messenger.” 😉