I’ve had a few enquiries about BlueSky recently. I am on there but with very few followers, so I haven’t done much in the way of posting yet. This is my profile: https://bsky.app/profile/climateeconomy.bsky.social
Huge thanks to Gerry for being this month’s sponsor. He has asked me to post the following: Still alive in ’25 – we’re all in this together! Find supportive community and resources at postdoom.com (founded by Michael Dowd; RIP).
“Economic growth could fall 50% over 20 years from climate shocks, say actuaries…
“At 3C or more of heating by 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states (with resulting rapid, enduring, and significant loss of capital), and extinction events.”
“Armed conflict and extreme weather driven by climate change are viewed as the top risks for the global economy in 2025, according to a new report.
“The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2025, released on Wednesday, warns that wars and extreme weather are buffeting economic confidence.”
“Are we entering a dangerous new phase of climate change?
“It is time to accept the truth: we have broken the climate… climate systems are no longer behaving as expected, and the only thing we can say with certainty is that we should expect extreme weather events to become more frequent, stronger and longer-lasting.”
“It’s astonishing when you think about how big the Earth is. 2024 had 7% more atmospheric moisture than 2000. That moisture loading is a big reason for the biblical flood events in 2024 because storms amass it.
“It may be astonishing, but not surprising… it’s happening just as we expect it to.”
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1879629414839070926
“Even with La Niña, both hemispheres are record warm!
“Most people are completely oblivious about the rate of global warming.” [Leon Simons]
“It’s official. Global f&%kery is accelerating. Hang on peeps, the ride is just getting started.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson, referring to the forecast anomalies pictured right]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lft2wevsec2e
“Research finds frozen ground in the Arctic is sinking at an increased rate.
“…the sinking or settling of frozen ground, also known as permafrost, as it thaws—is widespread and happening at accelerating rates, with serious implications, including ecosystem, infrastructure and landscape disruptions.”
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-frozen-ground-arctic.html
“Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023…
“With more frequent blocking occurring and continued regional warming, future calving front retreats will likely intensify, leading to more significant glacier mass loss.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-55948-1
“Finland’s climate warms faster than global average…
“Historically, Finland’s average annual temperatures often fell below zero degrees Celsius before the industrial era. Today, temperatures consistently remain above freezing…”
“Nord Stream methane leaks spread across 14% of Baltic waters…
“We show that dissolved methane decreased rapidly through outgassing, however initial concentrations were so high that 14% of the Baltic Sea still experienced concentrations 5 times greater than average natural levels.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-53779-0
“It’s not just the Financial Times last weekend – in parallel, the insurance industry is also increasingly concerned about the risks of AMOC slowing or shut-down.
“See this article in The Journal of the Chartered Insurance Institute.” [Prof Stefan Rahmstorf]
https://thejournal.cii.co.uk/2025/01/10/climate-change-amocalypse-now
“WEST EUROPE RECORD WARMTH – while the Mediterranean is freezing, it’s super balmy with 16C in Iceland and Scotland.
“MONTHLY RECORDS: ICELAND 10.9 Sámsstaðir, NORWAY 11.4 Saeter, High Tmins: 7.8 Sula, 3.0 Soknedal.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1879543786457694624
“Britain’s topsy-turvy weather continues! Warmest January 14 ever recorded… just days after UK’s coldest January night in 15 years…
“The Met Office confirmed this afternoon that thermometers at Cassley in Sutherland in the Scottish Highlands reached 15.7C (60.3F) last night.”
“Mer de Glace 2007 | 2024. The largest French glacier has lost ~95 m in thickness during this period at 1700 m above sea level!
“This is called collapse!”
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/1879497066747228447
“Historic warmth in the AZORES ISLANDS.
“Horta had a super warm minimum of 18.9C [66F] which ties the Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in January in the Azores which are having an absurdly and unprecedented warm weather, more like a late summer than a winter.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1879104669966024764
“Murcia [Spain] wakes to freezing temperatures and record lows.
“…the most extreme figure was registered on Monday in La Junquera, where temperatures reached a record-breaking -12.4°C, the lowest since records began.”
https://murciatoday.com/murcia-wakes-to-freezing-temperatures-and-record-lows_1000182406-a.html
“Drought continues in Spain’s Andalucia as January rain fails to fill reservoirs.
“While the north of Spain has overcome drought, Malaga and Alicante’s water reserves are critical, according to a report by the Public Sanitation and Supply association (AEOPAS). “The southern half of Spain is still in drought,” it warned.”
“The Floods This Time: In the Mediterranean, Climate Change Is Already Here…
“In the autumn, deadly floods wreaked havoc along an arc from Spain to the Balkans, and from Morocco to Libya. More than 200 people were killed in Valencia in October, not long after a deluge dumped five times the month’s ordinary rainfall across Europe in a single week.”
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/01/14/world/europe/mediterranean-floods.html
“Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures increased by +0.5°C in a few years.
“More warming in the past 15 years than in the preceding 150. Increasing the sea temperature by 1°C takes >3000 times as much heat as for the same volume of air.” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1879550767956468181
“Greece hotel pools set to switch to seawater on drought-hit islands.
“Hotels on Greek islands may be filling their swimming pools with seawater this summer in response to worsening drought conditions, under new legislation being debated in parliament.”
“Concerns grow over Limassol’s impending water crisis [Cyprus]…
“Following an emergency council meeting, the Limassol water board expressed grave concerns about the region’s dwindling water reserves. It highlighted that, should the current conditions persist, water shortages during the summer months are almost inevitable.”
https://cyprus-mail.com/2025/01/14/concerns-grow-over-limassols-impending-water-crisis
“Syria endowment ministry urges for rain prayers amid drought fears…
“The prayer, known in Arabic as Salat al-Istisqa, tends to be performed by worshippers after Friday prayers, in a collective ritual to ask God to provide enough rain for farming and human consumption.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/syria-endowment-ministry-urges-rain-prayer-amid-drought-fears
“Illegal wells and over-irrigation spark concerns in Morocco ‘dry zones’ amid drought…
“Reports from Water Police units in Morocco have revealed extensive misuse of water resources by agricultural estates during the ongoing drought, prompting alarm among government agencies.”
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN IVORY COAST – 39.6 [103.3F] at Odienne and 38.5 in the capital Yamassoukro.
“If reliable both destroys their January monthly heat record and 39.6C also ties the national record of IVORIAN HIGHEST TEMPERATURE IN JANUARY.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1879332567561949567
“South Africa suspended operations at a key border crossing with Botswana after heavy rains caused flooding…
“The route is a key crossing used by copper mines in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo to access South Africa’s Durban port.”
“Cyclone Dikeledi: UN mounts aid response for victims in Africa…
“The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said the UN partners began working with local authorities after the cyclone made landfall on 11 January 2025, Saturday, in northern Madagascar, the same area hit by the deadly cyclone Chido nearly a month ago…”
“Daughters of drought: teen girls traded for grass in Africa’s climate crisis..
““For a girl to be considered ready for marriage in my community, she first undergoes female genital mutilation,” said Dorcas, interviewed for the Sustainable Africa Series. “Imagine being 13, mutilated, and then traded for grass to feed cattle.””
“RECORD HEAT IN INDIA – more record heat from Southern India.
“Highest January minimums on record were broken today in the following stations: 26.8 [80.2F] Kozhikode, 26.0 Thrisseur, 25.5 Karipur.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1879476119927390630
“Unusual weather patterns cause record low rainfall this winter in the North [of Vietnam].
“Since early December, Hà Nội has experienced only two days of light rain… The absence of rain is unusual for the first half of the winter season. Additionally, daytime temperatures in the city’s Hà Đông area have frequently exceeded 20°C.”
“Astonishing temperature rise! In the next 10 days, China will experience a warm temperature close to the historical record for the same period.
“The temperature in East Asia and eastern Siberia will be 8 to 12 degrees higher than normal!”
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/1879483646790541477
“China’s coastal water temperatures hit record high in 2024…
“The average temperature in China’s coastal waters rose for a second consecutive year in 2024 to a record 21.50 degrees Celsius (70.7 degrees Fahrenheit), authorities said, in a year that was the world’s hottest since records began.”
“Hong Kong Breaks 35 Temperature Records in 2024, Hottest Year in City’s History…
“Last year, the city saw 35 record-breaking high temperature events, including the highest absolute maximum temperature for March, the warmest April on record, the warmest first half-year on record, and the highest number of hot nights for August.”
https://earth.org/hong-kong-breaks-35-temperature-records-in-2024-hottest-year-in-citys-history/
“Forest fires continue in Suphan Buri and Chon Buri [Thailand]…
“Massive forest fires, allegedly started by poachers four days ago, continue to rage in Suphan Buri, with approximately 1,000 rai of forest already damaged, officials have reported.”
https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40045224
“Singapore Braces for Second Monsoon Surge Amid Record Rainfall.
“Singapore is preparing for another monsoon surge this weekend following recent heavy rains… Authorities are bracing for potential flash floods as tides and rainfall levels are projected to remain high.”
“RECORD HEAT IN AUSTRALIA AND SE ASIA.
“Records are being destroyed in nearly 100% of the tropics. Today in AUSTRALIA 39.7 [103.5F] Gladstone and 39.0 in the AP smashed their January record highs. Byron Bay min 24.7 Record high minimums.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1879772121121124533
“Marine rescues, giant hailstones as wild storms linger over northern NSW.
“Storm conditions are still pounding parts of New South Wales, with large hailstones falling in northern areas of the state. More heavy rain is forecast for the Hunter and mid-north coast regions over the coming days.”
“Fish diversity has changed dramatically on the Great Barrier Reef.
“Life on the Great Barrier Reef is experiencing significant shifts caused by climate change and various human-generated factors, according to a recent study.”
https://www.earth.com/news/fish-diversity-has-changed-dramatically-on-the-great-barrier-reef/
“Last month was the warmest December on record in Marlborough [NZ].
“And the region wasn’t far off having its hottest December day too. Data released by Plant and Food Research this week showed the hottest day of December 2024 was December 5, when the mercury reached 32.4C [90.3F].”
https://www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/360549624/warmest-december-record-marlborough
“Devastating fire in Epuyén [southern Argentina]: hundreds evacuated, houses burned and Route 40 cut off…
“Epuyén has been burning in recent hours after a huge fire broke out… High temperatures and a wind with gusts reaching 70 kilometers per hour caused the flames to advance throughout the afternoon, destroying everything in their path.”
“Corn hovers near 13-month high as drought grips Argentina…
“Chicago corn futures eased on Thursday, but remained close to a 13-month high on the US government tightening its supply outlook and hot and dry weather damaging crops in Argentina.”
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40343037/corn-hovers-near-13-month-high-as-drought-grips-argentina
“Drought, intense heat worry soybean farmers in southern Brazil…
“Prolonged dry spells in key soybean producing regions of southern Brazil are raising concerns among farmers about the performance of the 2024/25 harvest… soybean fields in Rio Grande do Sul are already feeling the impact of a drought lasting up to 40 days.”
“‘We are crying for rain’: Suriname’s villages go hungry as drought bites.
“After the worst rains in decades, rivers are drying up and crops failing, leaving people in the interior without clean water or healthcare, and cutting transport links.”
“RECORD HEAT IN THE CARIBBEANS. Records never end all over the tropics, the exact opposite pattern of what [normally] happens during a Nina.
“Today up to 38C [100.4F] in Honduras and new record of highest January temperature at Barahona DOMINICAN REPUBLIC with 33.5C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1879691710843998484
“Hawaii lawmakers vow to stabilize property insurance market as climate change fuels higher premiums…
“Insurance companies had increasingly been viewing Hawaii as a disaster risk state even before the August 2023 wildfires on Maui, but that event only intensified the trend, Senate President Ron Kouchi told reporters at a news conference.”
“The $2 Trillion Home Insurance Nightmare Is Getting Even Worse…
“On top of the human tragedy they’re still inflicting, the Los Angeles wildfires are exposing a gap between what people thought their homes were worth and what they’ll actually get from insurance companies… But this isn’t just a Los Angeles problem.”
“I’m a climate scientist and my house in LA burned down. My work has never been more real…
“This event, for me, has destroyed any boundary between my work and the rest of my life, my family, my friends. It causes me to reflect on whether the words we frequently use to talk about climate change are consistent with what I’d want to hear in this moment.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/15/la-california-fires-climate-science
“Trump energy chief pick says linking wildfires to climate crisis is ‘hype’.
“Donald Trump’s nominee for energy secretary, Chris Wright, is facing criticism for disputing the ties between climate change and more frequent or severe wildfires, the Washington Post reports, a stance that is contrary to scientific consensus.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/15/chris-wright-energy-secretary-climate-change
“New York City lawsuit against Exxon, BP, Shell over climate change dismissed…
“In a decision on Tuesday, state Supreme Court Justice Anar Patel in Manhattan rejected the city’s argument that the oil companies should have told climate-conscious residents that fossil fuels cause climate change because this information was publicly known.”
“Prioritizing Food Over Climate: The Shift In Global Farming Policies.
“Douglas McIntyre, Editor-in-Chief at Climate Crisis, highlights the UK government’s new directive for farmers to prioritize food production over environmental goals. Farmers are advised to focus on productivity, even if it means using gas-powered engines instead of green technology.”
“Melting glaciers are reshaping landscapes and national borders around the world.
“…the rapid pace of melting glaciers, accelerated by human-induced climate change, is causing profound environmental and geopolitical changes.”
“Pathogens and planetary change.
“Emerging infectious diseases, biodiversity loss, and anthropogenic environmental change are interconnected crises with massive social and ecological costs. In this Review, we discuss how pathogens and parasites are responding to global change…”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44358-024-00005-w
“Why a comedian is using jokes to talk about climate change…
“Goldsmith… began filling his routine with jokes about everything from the challenges of remembering a reusable food container to feeling smug about having a lower carbon footprint.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
Does that Guardian article mean 50% less growth or a 50% smaller overall global economy? The report says 50% smaller in total. There’s not much growth now, and generally reducing, and 50% of not much is still not much, but if there is continued growth of any kind to 2090 then the environment everywhere will be a complete wasteland with wildlife only found as. stuffed exhibitions (and not at all like Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep).
There is a virtual 100% correlation between oil use and the economy with no sign of decoupling. Oil, despite EiAs rose tinted glasses, will drop to about half by 2050, so the world economy is going to be at least fifty percent smaller no matter what the climate does. At current rate of warming, which is likely to speed up if the various cloud feedback models are true, we will be at 3 degrees before 2040 and most places will be at war with their neighbours for a short time before complete collapse. So I think by 2050 the economy is going to be closer to zero than it will be to 50% of now and forget about 2070.
The Guardian seems to have to get “carbon removal” into every one of its environmental articles these days; there is zero chance of any such technology being deployed at any sort of scale needed to make a difference, and given the sudden increase in warming it would also have to be fully employed within about five years (as an interesting fact if direct air capture was powered by fossil fuel it would put out about 1.2 tonnes of CO2 for every one it captures so imagine how much renewable infrastructure would be required to power it – or do we wait for fusion).
George, I’m always keen to include articles that explicitly link the climate and economy, but they tend to be confusing, as this one is, or too limited in scope to draw realistic conclusions.
In fairness, the actuaries’ report the article links to does issue this caveat in reference to those global GDP loss projections:
“The authors themselves acknowledge that the real economic impact will likely be greater than estimated in their study.
“This is analogous to carrying out a risk assessment of the impact of the Titanic hitting an iceberg but excluding from our model the possibility that the ship could sink, the shortage of lifeboats, and death from drowning or hypothermia. The modelled results would be reassuring but dangerous as they would severely understate the level of risk.”
https://actuaries.org.uk/document-library/thought-leadership/thought-leadership-campaigns/climate-papers/planetary-solvency-finding-our-balance-with-nature/
I should wait until tomorrow as this is financially related but I’m too impatient.
Biden warns of dangers of oligarchy taking shape in US
When is a warning not a warning? When you are warning about something that has already occurred. Biden is a joke. The US government is a joke. A bad joke. It’s not going to get better.
Out of the frying pan and into the fire we go.
Yes the first of these fake warnings came from President Eisenhoover when he warned against the “growing” influence of the military industrial complex. Hell, if anyone could have actually done something to prevent the USA from being run by the MIC it would have been him. But in reality he was just mocking the masses.
No, I am not sure that a reader from a Commonwealth Nation will get it.
This is what Jimmy Carter had to say about the US in 2015, following the Supreme Court’s decision to remove limits on donations to political campaigns:
“Now it’s just an oligarchy, with unlimited political bribery being the essence of getting the nominations for president or to elect the president. And the same thing applies to governors and U.S. senators and congress members… we’ve just seen a complete subversion of our political system as a payoff to major contributors, who want and expect and sometimes get favors for themselves after the election’s over.”
https://theintercept.com/2015/07/30/jimmy-carter-u-s-oligarchy-unlimited-political-bribery/
I find that a particularly salient point today, as what is being referred pejoratively to as the Deep State (by the same party as Ike) is part & parcel of the dropped MIC.
Followed and shared your bsky page!
Thank you for the ringing endorsement, Fox.
I see a trend here trillion dollar military budget, trillion dollar loses, the debt alone is a shit show. This bubble will pop soon and it not going to be pretty. Congress wants more money to line their dirty pockets of corruption for military and more surveillance and this insanity. Lets add in ecocide of the planet and lets kill everyone and give us all cancer while we are at it. More war to so my stocks will make money. I can’t wait til the all automated computer driven McDonalds cant operate.
“Economic growth could fall 50% over 20 years from climate shocks, say actuaries…”
From the great philosopher John Mayer
“Oh twice as much ain’t twice as good
And can’t sustain like one half could
It’s wanting more
That’s gonna send me to my knees” – “Gravity”
Expand that to the egotistical, entitled species’ demand of More!, More!, More! We won’t end up on our knees, we will end up 6 feet under.
There won’t be anyone left to dig the graves. We will just rot on the surface of the ground, not 6’ under. 🫤