Huge thanks to Gerry for being this month’s sponsor. He has asked me to post the following: Still alive in ’25 – we’re all in this together! Find supportive community and resources at postdoom.com (founded by Michael Dowd; RIP).
“Wall Street looks forward to a bonfire of capital and climate rules under Trump…
“Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration on 20 January – scheduled the Monday after US bank results week – will raise the curtain on a period of looser regulation, lower corporation tax, and weak climate commitments.”
“Billions in insurance losses expected from Los Angeles wildfires, Moody’s reports…
“The financial impact of the fires will be distributed across multiple sectors of the insurance market, including standard homeowners insurers, high-value excess and surplus lines (E&S) insurers, the California FAIR Plan, and commercial property insurers. Reinsurers will also be exposed…”
“Donald Trump’s return raises prospect of global tax war.
“Plans to levy higher rates on US multinationals could spur president-elect to respond with tariffs… The head of tax at one large multinational told the Financial Times that 2025 “could be the year that everything goes to hell in a handbasket and businesses get caught in the middle”.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c734c79a-3d83-4f0a-824a-029808b8c9cd
“Global Bond Tantrum Is a Wrenching and Worrisome Start to New Year.
“For those unsettled by the relentless rise in government bond yields in the US and across much of the world lately, the message from markets is getting clearer by the day: Get used to it.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-bond-tantrum-wrenching-worrisome-200009547.html
“Why global bond markets are convulsing…
“Central bankers across the rich world have cut rates—yet the real economy is seeing little or no relief. The borrowing costs facing businesses and households have barely budged… Investors are also unsure about economic growth. The dominant narrative veers from one extreme to the other.”
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/01/12/why-global-bond-markets-are-convulsing
“S&P’s $18 Trillion Rally Threatened by Psychology of 5% Yields…
“The key isn’t so much that yields are rising, but why, market pros say. A slow increase as the US economy improves can help stocks. But a quick jump due to concerns about inflation, the federal deficit and policy uncertainty is a red flag.”
“Towering dollar after solid jobs data leaves peers struggling…
“Data on Friday showed U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% as the labour market ended the year on a solid footing, leaving traders heavily scaling back bets of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.”
“How much longer can the Fed and Wall St ignore the fact that a significant portion of Job Growth was a result of unsustainable Fiscal Policy?”
https://x.com/DrJStrategy/status/1877846713941037119
“Why the Bank of England may need to step in to calm the bond market storm…
“What will frustrate Labour’s economic thinkers is that recent borrowing to fund health, education, and higher capital investment risks getting derailed by these higher borrowing costs that act to make such investments in the UK’s future more expensive… Financial markets are demanding a rethink.”
“Business confidence falling in UK and eurozone, recruiters warn.
“Recruitment companies have warned about declining confidence across Europe and the UK, as political uncertainty adds to concerns about economic growth… The recruiters’ gloom will add to concerns about the prospects for the economies of the eurozone, and the UK.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/13/business-confidence-uk-eurozone-france-germany
“Over 30% more bankruptcies in Netherlands last year.
“The number of bankruptcies increased significantly in 2024 compared to the previous year. According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), almost 4,300 companies were declared bankrupt last year. That is an increase of 30 percent compared to 2023…”
https://nltimes.nl/2025/01/13/30-bankruptcies-netherlands-last-year
“Germany Set for Dismal Economic Report Card Before Snap Election…
“…there’s a growing realization that much of Germany’s malaise is down to problems that have built up over years — including worsening demographics, a lack of modern infrastructure and declining competitiveness.”
“Co-leader of Germany’s far-right AfD calls for mass deportations…
“In a fiery speech to supporters in the small town of Riesa in Saxony, east Germany, Alice Weidel said that under the AfD — which is second in the polls with a record vote share of around 20 per cent — Germany would witness “repatriations on a large scale”.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c6dcf0a5-82ca-4bf1-a233-e36f7a5b4741
“Poland backs Donald Trump on raising Nato spending to 5% of GDP…
“Poland is the Nato member closest to meeting the new target, having earmarked 4.7 per cent of GDP for defence this year, the highest in the US-led military alliance.”
https://www.ft.com/content/afe229e2-8717-4380-a943-3f13995918c8
“Sweden neither at war nor at peace, says PM, as warships sent to Baltic Sea…
“The Swedish prime minister has said that his country is neither at war nor at peace as he announced that Sweden would be sending armed forces into the Baltic Sea for the first time as part of increased surveillance efforts amid a spate of suspected sabotage of undersea cables.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/12/swedish-pm-war-peace-armed-forces-enter-baltic
“Trump to urge Zelenskyy to lower Ukraine’s conscription age to 18…
“US president-elect Donald Trump intends to push Ukraine to lower its age of conscription in an effort to stabilise the country’s front lines ahead of direct negotiations with Russia… Waltz said preparations were under way for a Trump-Putin call…”
https://www.ft.com/content/9fa3b0ac-e33d-4784-8222-6b745aba3004
“Oil Prices Jump to 4-Month High on Fresh U.S. Sanctions.
“Crude oil prices started the week with a gain that pushed Brent crude to the highest in four months following the introduction of a fresh package of sanctions against Russia by the Biden administration. The sanctions focused on Russia’s oil industry.“
“Massive rally in Bucharest protests annulment of presidential election.
“The court’s decision came after the Supreme Council of National Defence declassified secret service documents that showed interference by a “state actor” in the electoral process in the country.”
“Thousands of students protest in Serbia against violation of civil rights, spy agency crackdown.
“Serbia’s striking university students have protested outside the Balkan country’s top court to draw their attention to what they say have been violations of their civil rights under the populist authorities, including pressure from the secret service.”
“Violent protests rage on throughout Italy over death of Ramy Elgami.
“In an enraged onslaught of violence for justice, protesters flocked to various major cities across Italy, seeking retribution for the death of Ramy Elgami, who was rammed into by the Italian police, the Carabinieri, on November 24 last year after a chase…”
“China’s Trade Surplus Reaches a Record of Nearly $1 Trillion.
“China’s vast exports in 2024 exceeded its imports on a scale seldom seen anywhere except during or immediately after the two world wars… President-elect Donald J. Trump, who will take office next week, has threatened to escalate already aggressive American trade policies aimed at China.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/12/business/china-trade-surplus.html
“China corporate profits set for third year of declines.
“Chinese corporate profits are set to show a third consecutive year of declines in 2024, with the trend expected to continue into this year as deflationary pressures weigh on the world’s second-largest economy.”
“Taiwan reports ‘significant rise’ in suspected Chinese espionage…
“China has stepped up political and military pressure in recent years to back its claim that democratically governed Taiwan is its own territory. This has included daily military drills, balloons near the island and an espionage campaign.”
“Philippines protests ‘illegal’ moves by China ships, chopper.
“The Philippines on Monday said it filed a diplomatic protest to counter Beijing’s continued “illegal” activities in the South China Sea, as tensions flare anew ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.”
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2938681/philippines-protests-illegal-moves-by-china-ships-chopper
“Impeachment Crisis Splits Koreans. As supporters rally to prevent arrest, economy shows signs of stress.
“Seoul’s Yongsan District is increasingly resembling a city under siege as thousands of policemen in full riot gear surround the presidential compound…”
https://www.asiasentinel.com/p/impeachment-crisis-splits-koreans
“India’s growing rift with Bangladesh echoes its Pakistan tensions.
“Once seen as a cornerstone of South Asian diplomacy, the relationship between India and Bangladesh is now under strain, with analysts warning that unchecked political interference and unresolved domestic issues could push ties to a breaking point.”
“The Indian central was likely selling dollars to support the rupee on Monday, after the currency slumped to its all-time low as the dollar surged on expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates by much this year, four traders told Reuters.
“The rupee was at 86.36 per U.S. dollar as of 10:15 a.m. IST after hitting its all-time low of 86.39 earlier in the day.”
“Emerging Market Currencies Are at Central Banks’ Mercy as Fiscal Policy Lags… Debt-to-GDP levels are rising across key EM economies…
“The dollar’s surge due to a resilient US economy and expectations of fewer interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have put central banks around the world on guard to defend their currencies and avert capital outflows. However, emerging market governments are constrained…”
“Afghan Currency Tumbles Amid Growing Calls for U.S. Financial Aid Cessation…
“Amid growing calls for the cutting U.S. financial aid to Afghanistan under Taliban rule, the Afghanistan currency has once again depreciated against the U.S. dollar. On Sunday, one U.S. dollar was traded at 74 Afghanis in Afghanistan’s currency markets.”
https://www.afintl.com/en/202501125586
“Iranian army takes delivery of 1,000 new drones.
“A thousand new drones were delivered to Iran’s army on Monday, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, as the country braces for more friction with arch-enemy Israel and the United States under incoming U.S. president Donald Trump.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-army-takes-delivery-1000-new-drones-2025-01-13/
“Dozens killed, injured in Turkey airstrikes on Syria…
“The sources stated that Turkish warplanes carried out seven airstrikes against Syrian residential areas in support of their affiliated elements near the Tishrin Dam, destroying urban infrastructure in the area.”
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/226830/Dozens-killed-injured-in-Turkey-airstrikes-on-Syria
“Anger and fears of recession in Syria as new authorities dramatically increase customs duties.
“A decision by Syria’s interim authorities to raise customs duties on imports coming in via the Turkish border has caused widespread discontent, raising fears of rising prices and recession in a country suffering from an economic crisis brought on by years of war.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/anger-syria-new-govt-dramatically-increase-customs-duties
“Israel heavily bombs Lebanon in new violation of truce with Hezbollah.
“The air raids targeted the outskirts of the areas of Houmine al-Fawqa and Deir al-Zahrani, in Nabatieh governorate in southern Lebanon, the al-Mayadeen news channel reported late on Sunday.”
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/01/13/740816/Israel-bombs-Lebanon-violation-truce
“Iran’s ‘last proxy’ rains missiles on Israel…
“Despite morbid jokes on Israeli social media calling them the country’s new “alarm clock”, the Houthis have become a painful reminder for Israelis that the war is not over.”
https://www.ft.com/content/1790c238-a094-4a9f-9895-d2613a42bf2a
“Vance: Allowing Israel to dismantle Hamas’s last battalions is what Trump means by ‘all hell’…
“The IDF indeed states that it has yet to dismantle the final two of Hamas’s 24 battalions in Gaza, but that is because they are believed to be holding many of the remaining 98 hostages in central Gaza.”
“Thousands flee southern Sudan town amid escalating clashes: UN…
“Across the country, 11.5 million people are internally displaced – including 2.7 displaced in prior conflicts – in what the UN has called the world’s largest displacement crisis. The war has also claimed the lives of tens of thousands and pushed the country to the brink of famine.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/thousands-flee-southern-sudan-town-amid-escalating-clashes-un
“DR Congo says several towns recaptured from rebels but fighting intensifies…
“Eastern Congo has been in conflict for decades with more than 100 armed groups, most of which are vying for territory in the vast and mineral-rich region near the border with Rwanda. The conflict has created one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises with more than seven million people displaced…”
“West Africa could soon have a jihadist state – here’s why…
“I believe the key factors that could aid the establishment of a jihadist state in the Sahel region of west Africa include mutually reinforcing issues such as population explosion, failure of governance and endemic poverty.”
https://theconversation.com/west-africa-could-soon-have-a-jihadist-state-heres-why-244008
“The Guardian view on Argentina’s austerity year: painful cuts, rising poverty and a geopolitical gamble…
“…there has been a very high social cost attached to Mr Milei’s austerity programme of slashing services and jobs. Falling real wages have left many unable to afford health insurance, further straining underfunded public hospitals. Violent protests against these measures rocked Buenos Aires this summer…”
“Supporters of Bolivia’s ex-President Morales march for 3rd day, protesting crisis.
“”This is a just struggle, a peaceful march, we are talking about people who are dying of hunger,” said Indigenous leader Juanita Ancieta. “The people have risen up and no one is going to stop us because the country is in bad shape,” she added.”
“Refugee limbo hell on earth as conflict levels soar…
“If you feel like there are more conflicts in the world than ever before, you would be right… As a result, there are now 120 million people forcibly displaced worldwide, which is also a record high… The total estimated number of people in need sits closer to 305 million…”
“Here’s seven signs that show Western civilization could soon end…
“Experts such as Professor Joseph Tainter of the University of Utah saying that the fall of Rome shows that over-complexity can lead to collapse… [Investor, Doug] Casey said: ‘It’s the second law of thermodynamics, everything winds down and becomes corrupt.’“
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
“Casey said that many people say he is a ‘doom and gloomer’, but he actually is optimistic over the longer term, and believes that the human race can expand and conquer space – but only after the collapse of what is here now.”
😂 🤦🏻♀️ unfortunately, the ecosystem of which we are a part and which sustains us is mortally wounded. Something probably will still be here, but more like tardigrades, not humans.
“…believes that the human race can expand and conquer space.”
Doug Casey and I part company there but I was intrigued to see Tainter and the second law of thermodynamics get a mention in The Daily Mail.
I didn’t post this article from today’s Independent because it is too loaded with magical thinking, but the possibility of collapse is definitely starting to filter through into the MSM:
“The end of the world as we know it? Theorist warns humanity is teetering between collapse and advancement. When will human civilization end for 8.2 billion Earthlings? It could be happening right now…
“[Nafeez] Ahmed’s paper comes following dire warnings about Earth’s rapidly warming future. Last year, a team of international scientists said that six of Earth’s nine planetary boundaries — that define a safe operating space for humanity — have been crossed.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/human-civilization-collapse-world-end-apocalypse-b2665336.html
I used to be on Nafeez’s email list but eventually unsubscribed because of the ridiculous hopium.
Just woke up in the middle night, thunder hurts my ears, and frightening hail rattling the windows.. so noisy, after a blistering hot day. Speaking of ‘whiplash’ .. I am glad I did spend the $1300 on having a huge old ghost gum tree that went ballistic after 3+ years of non-stop rain, hovering it’s heavy branches creepily low & close to my house & driveway, surgically “pruned” a few months ago!!
Anyway, energy makes the world go round, including the global economy & in my late night web cruising found this interesting piece, others here may find it so as well 🙂
https://youtu.be/Sazx72sDl8w?si=8ki5DjK72t8ihKmW
Ahh, Sean Foo – your favourite analyst, Rain. I will try to find time to watch but the basic premise that the US piling more sanctions on China could worsen inflation in the West, including in the US itself, makes sense.
I hope your storm has settled down. My bedroom has Velux windows, so hail invariably wakes me up with a start.
Even if you were expecting it, from an objective viewpoint the speed of collapse and its recent acceleration are pretty shocking; you get a months worth of headlines from the 90s in two days. As surprising is that 99% of commenters (not here of course) still don’t get what is really happening or are so far into denial as to be irremediable. Economists and techno-copians can see a collapse coming but cannot even consider that it’s because of massive human overshoot rather than because political and financial institutions aren’t organised exactly as they should be according to the commentator’s ideology.
I certainly wouldn’t judge anyone for ignorance of our predicament, as for a large chunk of my life I was myself pretty oblivious, but the blinkered, anthropocentric hubris of the self-professed experts you mention can be a bit galling, George.
I’m sure some commentators see what we see but cannot say so because they need to make a living punting solutions or at least retain their credibility with the mainstream.
You know you’ve really, really lost (meaning, not win) when your enemies start adopting your language and framing.
Witness the use of “collapse” and Joseph Tainters thesis by gambling degenerate Doug Casey and the Green Beret Maga and noted anti-racist Steve Bannon.
Yeah, it’s the Woke Crowd and the cancelers wot dun it, guv’ner.
Brilliant.
Martin, I’m sure we’ll see all sorts of interesting characters co-opting the collapse narrative to fatten their wallets or push their ideologies moving forwards.
All aboard ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ay, ay, ay, ay, ay, ay, ay
Crazy, but that’s how it goes
Millions of people living as foes
Maybe it’s not too late
To learn how to love
And forget how to hate
Mental wounds not healing
Life’s a bitter shame
I’m going off the rails on a crazy train
I’m going off the rails on a crazy train
Let’s go
I’ve listened to preachers
I’ve listened to fools
I’ve watched all the dropouts
Who make their own rules
One person conditioned to rule and control
The media sells it and you live the role
Mental wounds still screaming
Driving me insane
I’m going off the rails on a crazy train
I’m going off the rails on a crazy train
I know that things are going wrong for me
You gotta listen to my words, yeah
Heirs of a cold war
That’s what we’ve become
Inheriting troubles I’m mentally numb
Crazy, I just cannot bear
I’m living with something’ that just isn’t fair
Mental wounds not healing
Who and what’s to blame
I’m going off the rails on a crazy train
I’m going off the rails on a crazy train
“Crazy Train” by Ozzy Osbourne, Dale… I must confess I had to Google, as I am more familiar with him as a showbusiness personality than as a musician. “The lyrics deal with the subject of the Cold War and the fear of annihilation that existed during that period,” according to Wiki.
Made me think of Sting’s “Russians”:
“How can I save my little boy from Oppenheimer’s deadly toy?
There is no monopoly on common sense
On either side of the political fence
We share the same biology, regardless of ideology
Believe me when I say to you
I hope the Russians love their children too”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHylQRVN2Qs
Human overshoot has only one path forward, and that is a dieoff to bring the population down below 2 billion, or even less, as some scientists proclaim, to be a truly sustainable. Musk’s Mars mania is a a useless distraction at best, and a tremendous waste of resources at worst. I consider myself a doomalist, which is a former realist who knows that if we don’t refreeze the Arctic, and soon, the escaping CO2 and even worse, the CH4, will burn away all our dreams and a silence that never ends.
A doomalist… that is a new one on me, Sissyfuss.
Who knows? A failing AMOC might refreeze the Arctic for us:
“The utterly plausible case that climate change makes London much colder… It’s a winter’s day late this century and London is engulfed in a December blizzard, its third of the season. The air is sharp with ice. Oxford Street is deserted. For nearly two days, Heathrow’s runways — all four of them — have stood empty. Visibility on the roads is near zero…
“This future is so much colder — and indeed so much drier — that British farming has dramatically shrunk. The complaints of the 2020s, such as Brexit and farm taxation, turned out to be minor shocks compared to the rapid cooling of the following decades. A proposal for irrigation — piping water from Scotland southwards — was deemed too expensive. The land of the second agricultural revolution no longer grows crops at scale.
“Restaurants do not boast of local produce. Nearly all the UK’s vegetables and fruits are imported, as are its wheat, oats and sugar. To make matters worse, fish stocks have collapsed in the north Atlantic.”
https://www.ft.com/content/7711109e-0338-43ad-aada-853f058a24f1