Huge thanks to Gerry for being this month’s sponsor. He has asked me to post the following: Still alive in ’25 – we’re all in this together! Find supportive community and resources at postdoom.com (founded by Michael Dowd; RIP).
“DOUBLING OF THE OCEAN WARMING RATE?! The Global Sea Surface Temperature of the past decade was 0.30°C (NOAA) or 0.25°C (ECMW) higher than the preceding decade!
“That’s more than double the average 1970-2010 Sea Surface warming rates!”
[Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1874910911233941861
“On the last day of 2024, global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies returned back up to the highest level ever reached before 2023, in the ECMWF ERA5 dataset, 0.43°C above 1991-2020.
“We’re starting off hot in 2025. Even with La Niña like conditions in the Pacific.”
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1874790409920233905
“Here is the first Arctic sea-ice extent graphic for 2025.
“We are starting the year with the lowest Arctic sea-ice extent on record.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson].
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3letm3fbvoc25
“High Arctic lakes reveal accelerating ecological shifts linked to twenty-first century warming…
“The colonization of the lakes by diatoms, as well as subsequent diversification and the appearance of planktonic forms, marked important ecological shifts due to warming temperatures and lengthening ice-free periods.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-82666-3
“Finland experienced an exceptionally warm year in 2024, with average temperatures across the country significantly above long-term norms…
“Northern Lapland saw the most pronounced warming, with temperatures rising 1.7 degrees above the historical average. Several weather stations in the region recorded their highest annual averages on record.”
“UK’s fourth-warmest year ‘clear evidence of climate change’.
“The average minimum temperature in England reached a record high in 2024, with more storms and fewer frosts… the country’s ten warmest years have now all fallen this century. No year in the past decade has been cooler than the long-term average…”
“The meteorological service ‘AgriMeteo’ has recently announced that 2024 is the rainiest year on record in the Grand Duchy [Luxembourg] since 1854, as well as one of the 10 warmest years.
“The numbers shared by AgriMeteo have proven that 2024 has been the wettest year since the beginning of rainfall measurements in 1854.”
https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/2264107.html
“‘A look into the future’: TV drama about Danish climate refugees divides opinion.
“Featuring scenes of huge crowds boarding ferries, protest and desperation as six million Danes become climate refugees and life as they know it rapidly collapses, the new TV series by the Oscar-winning director Thomas Vinterberg is a potential “look into the future”, he says.”
“2024 in Germany, like in most of Central and Eastern Europe, was the warmest year on record.
“Average temperature was 10.9C, 0.3C above 2023 which had beaten 2022 by 0.1C. 6 of the 7 warmest year were recorded in the past 6 years (all except 2021).”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1874786994116866460
“2024 was record warmest year in Serbia, +2.3C relative to 1991-2020 average, almost whole degree warmer than record from 2023!
“Record high numbers of days with Tmax ≥25C, 30C, 35C, Tmin ≥20C. Record low numbers of days with Tmin <0C, -10C, Tmax <0C.”
https://x.com/skomimaster/status/1874857256317296703
“Greece Records Warmest Summer and Winter in 2024, Reports Meteo Greece…
“The findings underscore the ongoing impact of climate change in the region, with extreme temperatures and significant weather events marking the year… Greece experienced 31 significant weather events in 2024, surpassing the annual average of 25 for the period between 2000 and 2024.”
https://greekcitytimes.com/2025/01/03/greece-summer-winter/
“Drought and heat, Sardinia [Italy’s] second most affected region: “Serious damage to the ecosystem”…
“Drought and extreme heat – in 2024 the average temperature increase is 1.8 degrees compared to the last 45 years – have seriously damaged livestock and agricultural land , while in spring and summer there were severe limits on the water supply in agriculture…”
“AFRICA IS AN OVEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. Record heat is sweeping nearly 100% of Africa in both Hemisphere.
“Extremely hot winter nights in the Gulf of Guinea with MINIMUMS up to 28C / 82.4F (Cotonou, Benin). Maxes >38C with low humidity since 5 weeks and it will get hotter and hotter.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1874863309889147292
“SOUTH AFRICA HEAT WAVE – extreme heat waves one after another for months are ravaging all Africa.
“Today up to 46C [114.8F] in the SOUTH AFRICA highlands at 700m asl; with the heat moving East next days. Brutal dangerous conditions 24/7 will persist over Mozambique and Madagascar for weeks.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1875234215928983779
“Israel takes control of most vital water source, Al-Mantara Dam in Quneitra, Syria…
“The dam’s capture grants Israeli forces significant control over water resources in the region, with implications for both Syria and neighboring Jordan, a primary beneficiary of water from the Al-Wehda Dam.”
“‘We’re just like fish: no water, no life’: Drought and dams push Iraq’s marshes to the edge of extinction.
“…a brutal, years-long drought linked to climate change and massive irrigation projects in neighbouring Turkey threatens to wipe them – and the semi-nomadic people who have lived there for thousands of years – out for good. There are even fears that tensions over the supply of water could lead to a new conflict in the Middle East.”
“Male’ [Maldives’ capital] gets record amount of rainfall in an hour…
“160mm of rainfall has been recorded in Male’ in the past 24 hours. During this time, the highest rainfall was between 17:00 hrs and 18:00 hrs, with 60mm rain recorded… a record amount.”
https://edition.mv/ministry_of_higher_education/38492
“Shimla [Himalayan foothills, India] registers highest winter temp ever, breaking records.
“In an unprecedented turn of events, Shimla on Friday recorded its highest-ever maximum temperature for the winter season, hitting a remarkable 21.6 C, an official said… This comes amid a broader heatwave gripping the Himalayan region…”
https://www.dailyexcelsior.com/shimla-registers-highest-winter-temp-ever-breaking-records/
“Sukayu reached a snow depth of 413 cm [163 inches], exceeding 400 cm on Jan. 2, breaking the Japanese record for the earliest station …to exceed 400 cm since records began!
“The previous record was on Jan. 18, so Sukayu broke its own Japanese record by more than 2 weeks!”
https://x.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1875039460867653743
“Vietnam’s capital blanketed by toxic smog.
“Hanoi (AFP) – Thick smog blanketed Hanoi on Friday, obscuring buildings and leaving nine million residents choking on toxic air as the Vietnamese capital topped a list of the world’s most polluted major cities.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250103-vietnam-s-capital-blanketed-by-toxic-smog
“Hong Kong Says 2024 Was Its Hottest On Record…
“The Hong Kong Observatory said it “has confirmed that 2024 was the warmest year in Hong Kong since records began in 1884, with an annual mean temperature of 24.8 degrees Celsius (76.6 degrees Fahrenheit), 1.3 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal”.”
https://www.barrons.com/news/hong-kong-says-2024-was-its-hottest-on-record-c5c5e69d
“Looks like tropical Sea Surface Temperatures are now already about 1°C higher than during the Eemian!!”
[Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1874812732815655009
“Indonesia experienced its hottest year on record in 2024, the country’s weather agency said on Friday.”
“Some stations failed to record a single colder than average day in the whole year, something that never happened before in world climatic history.” [Extreme Temps]
“Volunteers clean up Bali’s beach from “worst” monsoon-driven trash…
“The Southeast Asian nation is one of the world’s biggest contributors of plastic pollution and marine debris, with annual monsoon rains and winds sweeping mountains of plastic waste from its cities and rivers into the ocean.”
“First heatwave of 2025 engulfs Australia’s south-east while monsoon and cyclones mysteriously missing in action…
“The ongoing absence of monsoon westerlies is unusual this deep into the wet season, and will result in its latest onset in at least 25 years — while also preventing tropical cyclones reaching our shores.”
“Antarctic Ice Melt May Fuel Eruptions of Hidden Volcanoes.
“Ice sheet melt has been shown to increase volcanic activity in subglacial volcanoes elsewhere on the globe… Heat from these eruptions can increase ice melting deep below the surface and weaken the overlying ice sheet—potentially leading to a feedback loop…”
https://eos.org/research-spotlights/antarctic-ice-melt-may-fuel-eruptions-of-hidden-volcanoes
“Chile’s president Gabriel Boric has made a historic trip to the south pole to reaffirm his country’s “claim to sovereignty” over its part of Antarctica, his office said.
“Boric is the first Latin American leader to reach the Earth’s southernmost point, according to his office.”
“The fire in Nahuel Huapi [Argentina] affects more than 2,500 hectares and the Army intervened.
“The fire is spreading out of control in Nahuel Huapi National Park. The efforts of the fighters seem insignificant compared to the magnitude of the fire, although, assisted by aerial means, they are trying to stop the advance and circumscribe the surface…”
“Brazil says 2024 was its hottest year on record.
“Rio de Janeiro (AFP) – Last year was Brazil’s hottest on record, its weather agency said Friday, after a record-breaking drought and flooding in the South American country that climate experts have linked to global warming.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250104-brazil-says-2024-was-its-hottest-year-on-record
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT WAVE IN BRAZIL – records destroyed in the Northeast, especially in the Piaui State.
“40.6 [105.1F] Sao Joao do Piaui; 39.8 Barra; 38.9 Castelo do PIaui etc. The record heat is entering its 10th WEEK with no sign to abate. No trace of any rainy season or any Nina effect.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1875352380415545848
“Surveys are still being completed for the December 28 tornado outbreak, but at least 1735 tornadoes have been confirmed in 2024 [USA].
“This is the 2nd most tornadoes on record behind 2004 (1817).”
https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1875178103582114274
“Warmest, driest December on record capped Tucson’s third-hottest year…
“Rainfall continued to avoid Tucson last month, giving us our driest December on record and maintaining a dry period that has now stretched nearly two months. No measurable rain has fallen at Tucson International Airport since Nov. 3.”
“Iowa sets records for tornadoes, floods during 2024…
“State climatologist Justin Glisan says among the many incidents, a record was set for the most-ever tornadoes to touch down in Iowa during a calendar year… “We had historic flooding…” Glisan says. “Looking at return periods, you wouldn’t see something like that probabilistically in 1,000 years.””
https://www.radioiowa.com/2025/01/03/iowa-sets-records-for-tornadoes-floods-during-2024/
“These maps show which U.S. cities had the warmest year in 2024…
“At least 359 primary climate sites, as tracked by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, either experienced the warmest (299 sites) or tied for the warmest (60 sites) year on record in 2024. Additional station data will continue trickling in over the coming days.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/02/maps-record-warm-us-cities-2024/
“Canadian forests primed for more severe wildfire days, new research warns…
“Canadian forests are increasingly primed for severe, uncontrollable wildfires, a study published Thursday said, underlining what the authors described as a pressing need to proactively mitigate the increased threat posed by climate change.”
“Canadian ski resorts grapple with rising insurance costs…
“Warmer winters, less natural snow, and more frequent catastrophic weather events have turned snowmaking into a costly necessity, forcing ski resorts like Ontario’s Highlands Nordic to adjust their strategies while dealing with mounting expenses.”
“Nunavut posts more than 60 record-high temperatures in December [Arctic Canada].
“Several of those records were broken in Arviat, where temperatures between Christmas and New Year’s Day were frequently above –10 C. That’s compared with seasonal averages around –25 C.”
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/nunavut-posts-more-60-record-015737395.html
“‘Ironic’: climate-driven sea level rise will overwhelm major oil ports, study shows…
“Thirteen of the ports with the highest supertanker traffic will be seriously damaged by just 1 metre of sea level rise, the analysis found. The researchers said two low-lying ports in Saudi Arabia – Ras Tanura and Yanbu – were particularly vulnerable.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
JP, your About section is very welcoming, thanks. I appreciate that you ‘In a sense … hijack mainstream, fairly middle of the road publications to tell a story that none of them individually are capable of telling or willing to tell. This is the story of how modern industrial civilisation frays and, ultimately, falls apart’.
And I agree there’s some comfort in acknowledging that all these bits add up, so that, instead of feeling bombarded by the daily daggers of discomfort and disasters, we (you) construct a barrier of their regularity, which absorbs them all into a soft(er) bed of inevitability.
I recognise, as Pablo Casals suggests, that ‘the situation is hopeless … we must take the next step’. Whatever we choose to do, it is better done with some acknowledgement of the bigger picture.
Shane, you are welcome.
I agonised a bit over the choice of words there but in the end decided not to sugar-coat. I felt I’d rather validate the sanity of people who have drawn a similar conclusion than worry about alienating those who haven’t.
Bob Dylan – A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall
US President-elect Donald Trump called on Friday for the United Kingdom to dismantle its wind turbines in the North Sea in response to a decision by a US oil company to leave the oil-rich region.
“The UK is making a very big mistake. Open up the North Sea. Get rid of the windmills!” Trump posted on his online platform, Truth Social.
The post included a link to Scotland’s Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce, which in early November detailed a decision taken by the Apache oil firm to exit the North Sea. Apache said the UK’s windfall tax on oil operations had made operation “uneconomic.”
The four tears, I mean years, will be entertaining to say the least.
That’s if homocomsumptsapien is lucky to make it that long…
Two thumbs up for 2025 and wicked good comment TR
TR on January 4, 2025 at 3:16 am
Saw the word unraveling, which I haven’t used in quit a while. For some, the word might seem to describe what is happening for different people in different situations & to the globe as a whole. Unraveling is not what is happening. We are simply facing the consequences of our actions.
Thoughts & prayers. 😉
To everyone here have a “ducky” 2025 and Pan keep up the reports, certain you will have much “events” to keep you in “business”.
God speed everyone…
Vince, from an economic standpoint, Trump sort of has a point. However, North Sea oil production peaked in 1999 and recent discoveries have been piffling, so I’m not sure how much “opening up” there is left to do.
OK, agreed, without fossil fuels there are no windmills per Art Berman….also, the same can be stated for the Continental United States….per T. Boone Pickens (R.I.P), pointed out it was drilled like a block of Swiss Cheese…
So, it’s a moot or mute point….
Thank you, Pan for everything here, will be taking some time off now in the comment section.
Entering a new phase of life and all is OK as of now.
Been an active follower of both climate and economy for a long, long time. Realize the futile nature of movements, such as, Peace or Permaculture, or Sustainable or 🍏 Green, what have you…existence doesn’t ..
David Bowie…Changes..
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4BgF7Y3q-as&pp=ygUTY2hhbmdlcyBkYXZpZCBib3dpZQ%3D%3D
UK offshore oil production peaked at around two million barrels per day in 1999, there was a secondary peak at one million (average annual) in 2019. Last year averaged half a million. The recent decline has been fairly linear but is likely to slow to exponential decay now, with a bit of an uptick when Rosebank starts up. There are very few developments in the wings, discoveries are too small or too complicated (like Campo) to have high enough EROI to be economic or, at least, to be high up in the queue for development resources. Several developments in the last few years have produced significantly less oil than expected (a couple have done better). There have been some offerings of exploration licences recently but at best they have mostly led to a few proposals for seismic work, which have not gone on to any drilling. Given the decommissioning work that is ongoing I doubt if very much tax will be collected whatever rate is applied.
Thanks George, suppose that’s why Art Berman said climate change isn’t our biggest immediate problem we are facing, we got bigger ones in our face.
Anyway, back to “economic sense”, suppose Trump could add Bitcoin and other gobbling cryptocurrency, so called A-I gobbling energy centers and not to mention the greatest mal investments ever conceived , track suburban housing and Airline infrastructure, just to name a few.
We surely don’t wish to play favoritism
Thank you, George. These are Art Berman’s thoughts on the North Sea oil situation:
“Why does the U.K. government wants to kill North Sea oil production with taxes? Every barrel of lost production will result in a barrel added of imported oil. How does that make sense to Britain’s current account balance?
“The U.K. imported 930,000 b/d in 2023.”
https://x.com/aeberman12
Edward, I’ll raise you this rather obscure track by the Neville Brothers – “Fallin’ Rain”, originally performed by Karl Blau:
“I see fire and rain and bloodshed all around
And it keeps going through my brain; I hear the sound
I hear talking of people; the whole world has gone insane
And all there is left is the falling rain
All there is left is the falling rain”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJrRboKJDmA
Nice song, even referenced Kent State shootings. A song by Neil Young was a big hit based on that event. Well, Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young.
https://youtu.be/l1PrUU2S_iw?si=rJLdDGlQCBEBLGK9
That’s a gorgeous track.
Did you see this post on the collapse subreddit today, Pan?
https://reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1ht84pd/greenhouse_gas_forcing_skyrockets_beyond_anything/
It just adds to the severity of what you’re posting. Earth energy imbalance plus the albedo going haywire (amongst *many* other things). Good times.
James, thank you – I hadn’t spotted it. I imagine if you charted human population and energy consumption on that time-line they would look similarly vertiginous. That Y-axis is only going to get more stratospheric as we pump more ghg’s into the atmosphere and carbon sinks fail.
There is something almost literally explosive about modern industrial civilisation when viewed against the past 130,000 years, let alone against deep time – a completely bonkers flash in the cosmic pan.
Thanks for that, James. Good post and thread.
Might as well take this opportunity to introduce everyone here to the smashup scene.
Five Finger Death Punch and Marvin Gaye – “Let’s Get Bleeding”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2hCBCM8c0U
Thanks, Jupiviv. It actually works remarkably well.
Looks like you might be getting some snow your way according to the BBC. Some places 30 to 40 cm (I had to convert to inches).
Snow and freezing rain sweep into UK as amber warnings take effect
Not here on my Hebridean fastness, though, Edward. It’s down near freezing and we’ll get a bit of precipitation over the next few days but probably no snow.
The climate often seems to be doing its own thing out here. I recall in July 2022, when England was breaching 40C (104F) for the first time, it was 16C (60.8F) and drizzling.
VPK @ 3:40
Thanks, I hope it was more truthfully wicked than good. 😉
Having an intimate relation with the Force, it popped this up for me on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmw8GrE_PHs
The Force just directed me to: “There’s something happening here, what it is ain’t exactly clear .” “And nobody’s right if everybody’s wrong.”
Now that’s some BS, I mean Buffalo Springfield.