Huge thanks to this month’s sponsor, Kimberley Hare, Facilitator of ‘The Edge’ Retreat, and Author of “At the Edge: What is Mine to Do, and Who Can I do it With?” She was kind enough to interview me for this book.
“Trump threatens 100% tariff on BRICS countries if they pursue creating new currency: “The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER.
“”We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy,” Trump posted on Truth Social.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/30/politics/trump-brics-currency-tariff/index.html
“The mother of all bubbles. The US has never been so overhyped, relative to the rest of the world…
“United by faith in the strength of US financial markets and their capacity to keep outperforming all other economies, global investors are committing more capital to a single country than ever before in modern history.”
https://www.ft.com/content/49cca8d7-7b6e-47e3-a50c-9557d7c85fc0
“An America awash in global capital risks spreading financial instability…
“The curse of wealth has come upon America – that of abundant capital inflows, inflated financial asset values and a strong dollar. These are conditions that can test the ability of any financial system to absorb shocks and expose its hidden vulnerabilities.”
“Office commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) Delinquency Rate Spikes to 10.4%, Just Below Worst of Financial Crisis Meltdown. Fastest 2-Year Spike Ever [US]…
“The office sector of commercial real estate has entered a depression, and despite pronouncements earlier this year by big CRE players that office has hit bottom, we get another wakeup call.”
“Business insolvencies are running at more than double the rate of last year, and one economist says the failure rate exceeds that of the global financial crisis [New Zealand].
“There were 72 liquidations in October administered by the Insolvency and Trustee Service, just down from 74 in September.”
“Sweden Bankruptcies Heading for Highest Level Since 1990s Crisis…
“Swedish bankruptcy levels are expected to exceed 10,000 this year, a figure that hasn’t been seen since a financial crisis in the 1990s spread from the banking sector into the wider economy, according to credit reference agency Creditsafe i Sverige AB.”
“The Bank of England aims to develop the ability to lend to non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), aka shadow banks.
“It is doing so to address potential liquidity challenges in core financial markets that could threaten the United Kingdom’s financial stability, the bank said in a final report on its system-wide exploratory scenario exercise.”
“Far-Right Chief Vows to Sink French Government Unless ‘Miracle’.
“National Rally President Jordan Bardella toughened the stance of the far-right in France’s budget debate, increasing the likelihood that the government will be toppled as soon as this week.”
“Germany is ‘kaput’: Why the economic model no longer works in the proud country of automobiles.
“The Volkswagen crisis is just the tip of the iceberg of a larger problem. Europe’s old locomotive has stalled and must overhaul its industrial system, based on cheap Russian energy and exports to China.”
“Traders pay record premium for European gas next summer.
“European gas traders expect prices next summer to be higher than the following winter, an unusual bet that reflects the steep cost of refilling the continent’s storage facilities as it tries to wean itself off Russian supplies.”
https://www.ft.com/content/a288628a-e789-4c6c-bb55-8c86ee0e8404
“The INF treaty kept nuclear missiles off European soil and was a brake on a perilous arms build-up. Now it is gone…
“A nuclear weapons build-up, with its heightened risks of accidents and catastrophic conflict, is an existential threat of unparalleled immediacy. Without swift action, unchecked competition will overshadow any strategic gains from military posturing.”
“Zelensky says he needs NATO guarantees before entering peace talks with Putin…
“It comes after Mr Zelenksy appeared to shift his position dramatically on Friday by accepting that Ukraine may have to give up some territory “temporarily” to end the war.”
“Putin approves new budget with record defense spending…
“Around 32.5 percent of the 2025 budget — or 13.5 trillion rubles (€119 billion) — has been allocated for national defense, up from a reported 28.3 percent this year, according to a document posted on a government website, AP reported.”
“Kosovo blames Serbia for blast at key water canal as tensions escalate…
“Kosovo on Saturday worked to restore water and power supplies following an explosion at a canal critical to its energy infrastructure, which Pristina denounced as a “terrorist act” by Serbia… the blast escalated already fraught relations between the two Balkan neighbours.”
“Protesters rally in Georgia for fourth night as opposition grows to freeze on EU talks…
“For months, tensions have been rising between the ruling Georgian Dream party and opponents who accuse it of pursuing increasingly authoritarian, anti-western and pro-Russian policies.”
“North Korean food prices soar as currency crisis deepens…
“The scale of these increases is extraordinary – rice prices have surged 63.9% since January, while corn prices have shot up 70.7%. Such dramatic post-harvest price increases are virtually unprecedented, as prices typically decline after the autumn harvest.”
https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korean-food-prices-soar-currency-crisis-deepens/
“Burmese Navy Opens Fire on Thai Fishing Vessels…
“Thailand’s defense ministry is negotiating with the government of Myanmar over the safe return of 31 Thai fishermen who were shot at and captured by a Burmese patrol vessel in the Andaman Sea.”
https://maritime-executive.com/article/burmese-navy-opens-fire-on-thai-fishing-vessels
“Bangladesh’s economic crisis: The consequences of failed policies and corruption.
“A combination of ineffective policies, corruption, and mismanagement have contributed to Bangladesh’s current economic crisis, revealing the structural weaknesses that went unchecked during the period of authoritarian rule.”
“Death toll from sectarian violence in northwest Pakistan rises to 130.
“Sectarian violence continued in Pakistan’s northwest over the weekend, killing at least 14 people and wounding 27 in the past 24 hours in the Kurram district, located in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province near the border with Afghanistan.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/1/death-toll-sectarian-violence-northwest-pakistan-rises
“Executions and rehab: Saudi Arabia dials up its ‘war on drugs’…
“Saudi doctors and researchers say drug use is growing. This is partly fuelled by the proliferation of drugs like captagon, but also partly, they say, by social dislocation resulting from rapid top-down social and economic changes implemented under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman…”
https://www.ft.com/content/7a061c56-dab9-4daa-883b-32e23c33d871
“Russian jets strike Syria after rebels seize Aleppo in shock offensive…
“On Saturday, thousands of insurgents – many of whom had previously been forced into retreat in Idlib Governate – took over most of Aleppo and faced little to no resistance from government troops, according to fighters and activists.”
“Two killed in Lebanon, several injured as Israel continues breaching ceasefire.
“A truce came into effect on Wednesday, but Lebanon has voiced concern to brokering parties – Washington and Paris – that Israel was violating the deal.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/israeli-strikes-lebanon-continue-despite-ceasefire-2-killed
“UNRWA suspends aid deliveries through main Gaza route after convoy attacked…
“In a statement on Sunday, Philippe Lazzarini, the head of Unrwa, said several trucks carrying food supplies were looted the day before on the road from Kerem Shalom on the border with Israel, now the main aid crossing point into the besieged Palestinian territory.”
“US Navy shoots down Houthi missiles targeting US-flagged commercial ships in Gulf of Aden…
“”These actions reflect the ongoing commitment of CENTCOM forces to protect U.S. personnel, regional partners, and international shipping, against attacks by Iran-backed Houthis,” the command said in a statement.”
“Sudan suspended from the African Union…
“The suspension of Sudan follows what PSC termed as the lack of progress towards the establishment of a civilian-led Transitional Authority since its initial meeting following the coup d’etat of 11th of April 2019 in Sudan.”
https://au.int/en/articles/sudan-suspended-african-union
“Split in ECOWAS: Political and Economic Crisis…
“The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is facing a significant split, driven by the impending ratification of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso’s exit from the organization. This issue will be discussed at the summit of heads of state scheduled for December 15 in Abuja.”
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/12/split-in-ecowas-political-and-economic-crisis/
“Ghana’s economic crisis looms over impending elections…
“”We’ve gone to the IMF 17 times,” said Amey-Wemegah, referring to Ghana’s fund-assisted bailouts since independence in 1957. “None of those past governments introduced haircuts. Why is it that this government decided to introduce it. Why?””
“Dozens killed in clashes between rival fans at football match in Guinea, Africa.
“Clashes at a football match in Guinea’s N’Zerekore on Sunday killed dozens of fans, according to senior officials. Scenes of carnage included overflowing morgues and hallways. Unverified videos showed demonstrators torching a police station.”
https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20241202-football-guinea
“Global arms sales surge in 2023, driven by wars and tensions in Asia and Europe…
“Sales from the world’s top 100 arms companies “still did not fully reflect the scale of demand, and many companies have launched recruitment drives, suggesting they are optimistic about future sales,” Scarazzato added.”
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20241201-global-arms-sales-2023-ukraine-gaza-wars-asia
“‘Military experts explain why they believe WW3 has already started…
“Unlike traditional wars, today’s conflicts are fought not just with guns and bombs but through all manner of tactics including cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage and economic manipulation.”
“Global plastic talks collapse as oil states rebel…
“The meeting in Busan, South Korea, was meant to be the final fifth round of negotiations but after late night talks countries were unable to resolve their differences missing their key two-year deadline.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c785l1nrpd1o
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Re: Zelensky asks for guarantease from NATO before starting peace talks. Well what ever guarantees he asks for are not relevent because the Russians have made it abundantly clear that they will not negotiate with him.
The Russians say that they will negotiate with the USA. But I think that such negotiations will be just for show. My understanding is that there has been a complete breakdown in trust between the axis of resistance and the axis of evil. Therefore it is not possible to reach any type of agreement that either side will respect.
Re: Military Expats explain why they believe that WW3 has already started. I think that WW3 already started in March of 2003. Only the pace of activities that the sides are engaged in has picked up.
The roots of WW3 actually go all the way back to the 1870s when the US pulled Union occupation forces out of the pro slavery states so that the US military could concentrate on building a world wide empire rather than prefecting a republic.
OK that is when the roots of this world war 3 that is currently being foughactually started.
But if the United States had not pulled occupation forces out of the slow thinking pro slavery states then we would be in an alternate reality in which WW 3 probably, but not certianly, be fought between 2 other sets of forces.
Curt, those may well be important, catalysing events but, if we are taking such a broad, historical perspective, I don’t think we can confidently say that they play a greater role in the current mayhem than The Treaty of Versailles or The Great Depression or the European colonial powers drawing lines in the desert or Holodomor or the Nazi death camps and brutal quest for Lebensraum or the fall of the Soviet Union.
Having said that, I am drawn to such a perspective. It is somehow easier on the nerves to view it all as a complex web of action and reaction over multiple generations.
I am intrigued by the notion that an intrinsically more isolationist US was once a serious possibility. I must admit it is not a period of history I have studied in any depth.
I agree – WW3 is well underway. Time for some night time star gazing to keep me half sane.
I just came across this video. Although it probably belongs in tommorows thread on climate I think that it is rather important so I wanted to put it up right away. I of course can not claim to know if what the author of this report claims is true or not. But even if it is possible it is something that people should know about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lxfpgqn6NOo
Thank you for that, Curt. The video is about rivers in northern Canada and Alaska turning orange due to melting permafrost. It hasn’t had much press but there has been the odd article:
“The permafrost thaw is exposing minerals to oxygen in a process known as weathering, which increases the acidity of the water and dissolves metals like zinc, copper, cadmium and iron – the most apparent metal that gives the rivers a rusty color visible even from satellite images.
“The study highlights the potential degradation of drinking water and risk to fisheries in the Arctic.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/alaska-rivers-turning-orange
Harkins back to the days of “Dollar Diplomacy”, coined during the Presidency of Howard Taft.
Dollar diplomacy is a foreign policy that involves a country using its economic power to promote its financial interests abroad. The United States used dollar diplomacy during the presidency of William Howard Taft (1909–1913). The policy involved:
Lending money to foreign countries in exchange for the ability to influence their governments
Using American businesses to invest in foreign projects and gain the right to intervene in their policies
Using the military as a tool of economic diplomacy
The policy was characterized as “substituting dollars for bullets”. However, dollar diplomacy was generally unsuccessful:
It failed to counteract economic instability and revolutions in places like Mexico, Nicaragua, and China
U.S. trade with China actually declined under Taft
The policy aggravated ill will that had been generated by Roosevelt’s military interventions
The Taft administration abandoned the policy in 1912, and President Woodrow Wilson publicly repudiated it the following year.
However, Trump, is putting forth a new version of “Dollar Diplomacy” and maybe he’s playing poker with his poor card hand as a bluff.
Perhaps, he’ll luck out as Paul Newman did in the movie “Cool Hand Luke”.
Yes the tables have turned since those days of President Taft.
We live in interesting times, lucky us to still be in the “core” of BAU.
Sounds more like dollar coercion than dollar diplomacy, Vince.
I think your poker analogy works well. All major economies are now bluffing to some extent. The US economy has bifurcated and is propped up on this huge, runaway deficit + a fleeting bounty of tight oil. Less well-off consumers are having to take on too much debt:
“A surge in the number of Americans choosing “buy now, pay later” payment methods for their holiday shopping is raising concerns among advocacy groups that many lower-income consumers will find themselves struggling to pay their bills in the new year…
“Americans’ credit card debts hit $1.08tn in the third quarter, up $154bn year-on-year and the largest jump since 1999…”
https://www.ft.com/content/19128b12-4584-46a1-b464-39e2db19c8f3
Basic ideas about humanity remain stubbornly resistant to rational examination.
“Consensus”?
When I have a problem with plumbing in my house, since I am unqualified to fix it myself, I go out and find the most qualified plumber out there.
I don’t canvass 200 plumbers, and give each and every one veto power over who I can choose.
Yet that’s what the organized world seems to do with each passing environmental or “geopolitical conference- Saudi Arabia is given the “consensus”-based power to infect and obstruct and deny. The US vetoes entirely fact-based censure of Israel. Power-holding minority bullies obstruct progress in the fictional pursuit of complete agreement from all parties.
Truth shouldn’t require watered-down, ineffective unanimity. Consensus gives undue command to the stupid and the belligerent.
I fully expect this comment to have world-shaking reverberations. The UN is going into emergency meetings at this very moment because of this comment. Thanks, C&E for giving me this world stage, and the ability now to own the process. I expect to have a global movement for sanity named after me, though of course C&E has done all the prior work.
Down with Consensus Politics! Down with Consensus Politics!
See how easy that is?
The Martin Movement for Global Sanity. Let it be so. 😎
Humans and consensus… mutually exclusive terms. As for global sanity? I love the idea. Alas, as Martin, Panopticon, and the rest of us know, humanity is in the process of responding worse and worse to limits to growth and the laws of thermodynamics.
Yeah, you are right – insane clown car posse politics and all, I wouldn’t advise anybody to try to remain “sane”…
So in that vein, and knowing that d-skool rap and classic 60s seem to be the spotify of choice at C&E, here’s my alternative musical background for these times:
First, early Evolution Control Committee for the Climate part of C&E:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3UBWTH8zPE
and more recent Negativland for the Economy part of C&E:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RgF_4Phr7U
Martin, is that even music?! I am feeling like the uncool uncle who doesn’t get it. 😂
Panopticon, I’m glad you said it because I was thinking the same thing.
Of course, I have / know an acquaintance in the Netherlands that is a composer and shares his music with me. I always say it’s interesting but his genre isn’t my style. He is somewhat famous though. Some of his compositions are based around the elements.
https://youtu.be/r2edXanYNMM?si=iSqL9Ie8NcOzMHoP
It is interesting, Edward, but again too avant-garde for me.
The closest I’ve come to enjoying the sort of ambient stuff that seeks to create a mood rather than seduce with melody was KLF’s Chill Out album back in the day. KLF are famous (notorious?) for burning £1 million in the back of a disused boathouse on my neighbouring island of Jura in 1994. I guess it seemed edgy and artistic at the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWebqCRw7o4
Well, both are on Bandcamp for a buck.so they must be.music, correct?
On the hand, perhaps this reaction is a sign that my brain is seeing everything as broken: satire, music, civilization, Media, Christmas, who knows what else, and the guys in the white outfits will arrive soon.
Hello Pan
I don’t want to keep this message from you we are talking about the richest or second richest man on earth! Depends a bit on the stock prices 🙂
Bernard Arnault, CEO of LVMH, has been elected a member of the prestigious Académie des sciences morales et politiques. He occupies seat number one of the “Economics, Statistics and Finance” section, formerly occupied by Denis Kessler, former president of Scor, who died in June 2023. Arnault was elected by 27 votes in the first round of voting.
The Académie des sciences morales et politiques is part of the Institut de France, like the Académie française. The institute has 50 members divided into eight sections, including philosophy, law, economics and history. Members are elected by their peers through an absolute majority. The section in which Arnault sits includes prominent figures such as Nobel laureate Jean Tirole and former directors such as Yvon Gattaz and Michel Pébereau.
The Académie has strict rules for membership: a seat becomes vacant only through the death, prolonged absence or resignation of a member. Other well-known academy members include journalist Alain Duhamel and former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet. In addition to this new title, Arnault already received the Grand-Croix of the Legion of Honor, France’s highest award, earlier this year.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/economie/bernard-arnault-elu-a-l-academie-des-sciences-morales-et-politiques-20241202
These are good times for oligarchs, Zip.
“US president-elect Donald Trump has named billionaire investment banker Warren Stephens as his envoy to Britain…”
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3289065/trump-names-billionaire-investment-banker-warren-stephens-us-envoy-britain
“The 3 Richest Americans Hold More Wealth Than Bottom 50% Of The Country, Study Finds” – Forbes
Bumper sticker in one’s face: “If you are so damn smart, why aren’t you rich.” Let me list the reasons – It’s not my fault! It’s not my fault! It’s not my fault! I’m stupid. 😉
Looking forward to coffee prices increasing 100% due to tariff tax.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUxeRLXaCIk
In the comments –
“The people making $700/hr have convinced the people making $25/hr that the problem is the people making $7.50/hr.” – @dlsamson
Loving every minute of the willful ignorance this species displays.