A big thank you to October’s sponsor, Rusty Flanagan.
“Over a year of astonishing ocean heat has given way to the largest coral bleaching on record.
“A staggering 77% of the world’s coral reef areas — from the Atlantic to the Pacific to the Indian oceans — have so far been subjected to bleaching-level heat stress, according to satellite data, as climate change fuels record and near-record ocean temperatures across the world.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/18/climate/coral-bleaching-largest-record/index.html
“Rising temperatures may be altering nature’s hues, from fall leaves to ocean blues…
“Warming global temperatures can have rippling effects on ecosystems, altering nutrient levels, chemical composition or biological processes. Sometimes these changes manifest themselves in a visual way, a cue that scientists are using to track climate trends across the globe.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18102024/todays-climate-earth-changing-color/
“Global carbon emissions from forest fires have increased 60% in past 20 years, study finds…
“A study reveals carbon dioxide emissions from forest fires have surged by 60 per cent globally since 2001, and almost tripled in some of the most climate-sensitive northern hemisphere boreal forests that stretch over vast areas of Alaska, Canada and Russia.”
“Global sea-ice extent [currently at a record low] should be very interesting over the next few weeks.
“Last year at this time, sea-ice made a rapid comeback from its record lows. Will this year follow 2023’s rapid recovery, or will extent follow 2016’s collapse? The climate 8-ball says: “f&%kery ahead.””
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1847253766774624352
“The climate casino is predicting that 2024 will end with global mean surface temperature at 1.56°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC baseline.
“This will make 2024 the first full calendar year above the Paris Limit of 1.5°C.”
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1846888065622757796
“The northernmost lighthouse in the world, Fruholmen fyr at 71°05′37″N 23°59′01″E in Norway, with observations since 1954, had its highest temperature ever so late in the year today with 13.5C [56.3F].
“Old record 12.8C 18.10.2000.”
https://x.com/VaerTorsten/status/1847375158312652810
“Storm Ashley to bring 80mph winds to parts of UK this weekend [I am under this warning; power cuts a real risk, so if I am absent on Monday this is why]…
“Heavy rain and flooding was also predicted, with families travelling during the October school holidays advised to check for cancellations… Police Scotland has advised motorists to avoid unnecessary travel.”
“You know what else isn’t increasing linearly? The amount of Precipitable Water in the atmosphere!
“Especially over the regions where air pollution is being reduced. Just like the models predicted! This is a lot of additional water per square meter!”
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1846914724505485615
“Severe flooding has brought panic to the streets of France as animals are swept away, roads are submerged in muddy waters and villagers are forced to travel by boat…
“At certain places in the Ardèche region, up to 700 milimetres [27.6 inches] of water has fallen in 48 hours.”
“The National Library flooded: the rain covers the top floor and soaks the books [Madrid, Spain]…
“The rains on Wednesday 16 October caused damage to one of the capital’s most important buildings: the Madrid headquarters of the National Library (BNE), which is responsible for preserving part of Spain’s bibliographic and documentary heritage.”
https://madridsecreto.co/en/flooding-national-library/
“Heavy rainfall triggers deadly floods in Italy’s northern regions.
“Severe weather leaves several cities, including Genoa, Rapallo, Savona, and Chiavari in Liguria, grappling with water damage, transportation chaos… A red alert was issued for the Entella and Magra rivers in Liguria due to the high risk of flooding.”
“‘It’s shameful and I won’t pay it’: flood-hit Italians rage against insurance call.
“Italy has become known by scientists as one of Europe’s climate risk hotspots and is beginning to reckon with the widespread implications of extreme weather to livelihoods and the economy. Currently just 6% of homes are insured against natural disasters, and 5% of businesses. That, says the government, needs to change.”
“Three waterspouts near Sochi, Russia.
“October 17, 2024.”
https://x.com/WeatherSarov1/status/1847036284067340401
“Morocco’s food safety agency (ONSA) allowed imports of frozen or refrigerated sheep and beef meat from some 45 countries in response to a long drought that reduced the country’s cattle…
“Many farmers abandoned or reduced their cattle in view of the long drought and the surge in animal feed prices.”
https://northafricapost.com/81072-morocco-greenlights-red-meat-imports-in-response-to-drought.html
“Rising sea levels threaten Bargny, a coastal town in Senegal…
“Africa continues to feel the devastating effects of climate change.. include the destruction caused by rising sea levels.. This report from Bargny, a coastal town just outside the Senegalese capital Dakar.”
https://www.france24.com/en/video/20241018-rising-sea-levels-threaten-coastal-senegal-town
“Eastern Cape municipality implements water rationing in two drought-stricken towns.
“Authorities implemented water rationing in Bedford and Adelaide. The towns’ dam levels are critically low. The Eastern Cape education department has measures in place to make sure pupils are not adversely affected.”
“Zimbabwe has been hit by a drought so severe, villagers and wildlife are locked in a life-or-death battle for food and water…
“The United Nations warned this week that one in three Zimbabweans is enduring a ‘hunger crisis’, in a country where it has not rained for 15 months.”
“Tropical Depression “Al-Sayyal” brings 2 years worth of rain to Oman in 24 hours.
“Tropical Depression “Al-Sayyal” brought 215 mm (8.46 inches) of rain to the city of Sur in Oman’s Ash Sharqiyah South Governorate within just 24 hours on October 15 and 16, 2024. This amount exceeds what the city typically receives over two years.”
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN THE INDIAN OCEAN ISLANDS.
“Records are smashed in every single country. After the minimums of 28.4C at Galle and Jaffna, the highest ever recorded in October in SRI LANKA, the records in MALDIVES, etc now SEYCHELLES had its October highest temperature with 32.5C [90.5F].”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1846913399751327997
“[Pakistan’s] Met Department has released a detailed report on the 2024 monsoon season, highlighting record-breaking rainfall and temperature fluctuations across the country.
“From July 1 to August 30, Pakistan witnessed 51% more rainfall than the average, with some regions experiencing an unprecedented deluge and others recording higher-than-usual temperatures.”
https://www.samaa.tv/2087322673-pakistan-witnessed-51-more-rainfall-than-average-in-monsoon
“India’s disappearing wetlands are an early warning sign of drastic biodiversity loss.
“The gradual impacts of global warming, habitat destruction, and biodiversity loss are bringing the world closer to the edge of various tipping points, beyond which changes in earth systems will be sudden and irreversible. The disappearance of Chennai’s wetlands is an example of an early warning…”
“Climate change worsened deadly Nepal floods, scientists say.
“Nepal suffered its worst flooding in decades in late September after ferocious monsoon rains swelled rivers, swamping entire neighborhoods in the capital Kathmandu and other districts.”
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-climate-worsened-deadly-nepal-scientists.html
“Heat wave in southern China continued to intensify today, with 17 stations breaking mid-October records and 4 stations tying records.
“The highest temperature in China was Yuanjiang 34.5C [94.1F]. Heat wave will continue to develop tomorrow!”
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/1847279545453629896
“South Korea: Tomato-less burgers in McDonald’s after heatwave…
“McDonald’s Korea announced Tuesday that it would remove tomato from some of its hamburger line-ups — compensating impacted consumers with a free drink coupon — after having difficulty securing the vegetable.”
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN JAPAN AND KOREAS. Mid summer temperatures continue unabated since May.
“MINIMUMS up to 27C [80.6F] in Japan and up to 24.2C in South Korea (Seongsan) with maxes up to 32.8C in Japan and 31.3C at Jeju in South Korea. New October record at Shinabara, Japan with 31.8C.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1847245943692755237
“On Oct 19, Tokyo recorded a temp of 30.1°C, which was the latest 30°C/86F reading in a record that dates back to 1875. The previous record was on Oct 12, 2013.
“Also, Tokyo has seen 3 consecutive days with highs ≧25°C/77F, the most ever recorded in October.”
https://x.com/sayakasofiamori/status/1847538447134687717
“Residents in one of the country’s biggest regional centres has been left in total darkness after a freak tornado wreaked havoc across the Australian Outback, destroying a string of seven electricity towers…
“Power infrastructure owner Transgrid said teams were currently racing to respond to the damage, but repairs would take weeks.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13974035/Tornado-strikes-Aussie-town-cuts-electricity.html
“Monster hailstorm crop damage set to smash records in Victoria.
“A long-time hail damage insurance assessor expects the sum total of Wednesday night hail storm through the southern and eastern Wimmera to dwarf any bill for hail damage seen in Victoria’s broadacre cropping history.”
“Extreme drought wrecks rivers and daily life in Amazon’s most burnt Indigenous land…
“Almost 20% of the Kayapó Indigenous Territory has burned in this year’s Amazon drought, the worst ever recorded in Brazil. The land has for years been subjected to illegal mining, cattle ranching and burning of forests, degrading both the soil and rivers…”
“Amazon voters elect environmental offenders and climate denialists in Brazil…
“Many politicians who openly oppose conservationism were elected… “The rise of the far right is very visible in the Amazon states,” Wendell Andrade, public policy specialist for the Amazon at the Talanoa Institute, a Brazilian think tank committed to climate policy, told Mongabay.”
“SOUTH AMERICA HEAT WAVE – endless record heat in South America. Yesterday Reyes in Bolivia had its hottest October day on records with 40.2C [104.4F].
“Tomorrow the heat will increase in Peru and Colombia with respectively around 40C and 42C, again near record levels for both.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1847023684659085823
“More record heat in the CARIBBEANS. 34.3C [93.7F] today in the Providenciales Int. Airport, TURKS AND CAICOS Islands (UK Territory) is its highest temperature in climatic history.
“Nights have been stifling hot with Tmins 27C/29C every night for weeks/months.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1847388026718347335
“Torrential rains in Monterrey leave 3 dead [Mexico]…
“Following the rain damage, members of the Mexican Army arrived at the scene and began cordoning off the area to prevent residents from approaching the site, given the presence of dangerous materials…”
“Flooding could continue for weeks along the Withlacoochee River [Florida].
“Thanks to hurricanes Milton and Helene, Tampa set a new yearly rainfall record, and it’s only October. The National Weather Service said the city broke a record that has stood since 1957. All that water is pushing some rivers to record highs…”
“I study disasters. Our recovery system is facing its own [US]…
“It’s here: the climate we’ve all been warned about… Helene and Milton reveal that the system is stretched to its limits; it simply wasn’t designed for climate change… Though FEMA has assured survivors that it has enough money for the immediate term, the federal system urgently needs more money.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/18/hurricane-disaster-recovery-helene-milton/
“The Department of Mineral Resources warns several severe wildfires across northwest North Dakota will cause a temporary downturn in oil and gas production this month.
“Director Nathan Anderson said they asked producers to voluntarily shut in their wells as a way to limit the size of the fire.”
https://www.dakotanewsnow.com/2024/10/18/wildfires-cause-temporary-downturn-oil-production/
“Farmers seen fleeing Nebraska wildfire during harvest.
“Firefighters battled several wildfires in northeastern Nebraska on Thursday, fuelled by dry conditions and strong winds. Video taken by the Butler County Sheriff’s Department shows tractors and fire workers on a field, with tall plumes of smoke approaching.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c5y0np03nl8o
“2024, a year of agricultural calamities driven by climate change.
“Whether its excessive rain in France, severe drought in the Mediterranean and Brazil or devastating hurricanes in the US, extreme weather events are impacting agriculture across every continent, disrupting production.”
“How Climate Change Is Reshaping Global Security And The Military…
““Threat multiplier conveys that climate acts on every other threat we face, whether it’s strategic competition with Russia and China, or terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, biological threats, and other threats around the world,” she added, “because it’s destabilizing our natural systems, and the whole goal of security is stability.””
“NASA shared the most important graph in the world again. The rate of global heat uptake has doubled in the past 20 years.
“More and more sunshine is being absorbed than longwave radiation is radiated to space. As greenhouse gases increase and aerosols decreased.”
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1847304959362039833
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
The most annoying, facile and unexamined phrase out of climate scientists who have never been anywhere near a multi-billion dollar energy project or, less innocently, have skin in the game, is “we have the technology …” (to fix climate change). We don’t and never will. The issue that needs to be addressed is overshoot; renewables are being proposed as a solution which allows proponents to fantasise that we can perpetuate that state.
The ideal fuel is energy dense, easily stored and transported, easy to turn on and off, has a high EROI, and doesn’t require a huge amount of upfront investment in time, resources and labour or an extended supply chain to bring on-line. That is fossil fuel, in particular easily refined, conventional, medium density oil. Renewables don’t tick any of the boxes and do not provide a one-for-one replacement technology for any of our fossil fuel use. Even the best case, EVs, only address about 8% of energy, and not really that even, are more expensive and can’t do some things (emergency vehicles, long journeys off road). Wind and solar power generation appear cheap when there is an existing grid and other infrastructure that they can utilise, but that stuff was all built originally with 50 to 1 EROI fossil fuels and can barely now be maintained as overall energy use falls towards 10 to 1. Heavy goods by land, sea and air can’t use electricity and hydrogen will be, at best, a very low efficiency and highly complex minor player.
Technology is necessary but far from sufficient. We have the technology for everyone on earth to have a flying car or take a holiday in space, or even to have clean drinking water and adequate plumbing, but none of those things are going to happen because they also need lots of resources: minerals, energy, time, labour, land, institutions. There is no chance that we have enough of these to replace all fossil fuels, and if we did the earth would be a total wasteland covered with wind and solar farms, transmission lines, open cast mines, access roads to service all those with wild flora and fauna only found in few antiseptic research facilities, and everybody’s lives tightly controlled solely to keep this monster running. And civilisation would be in deeper overshoot and heading for an even more precipitous collapse.
The second most facile and unexamined phrase is “if we all just work together …”, meaning work together in exactly the way I’m going to tell you to because, as a climate scientist, I obviously know all about every aspect of human and social behaviour. We are not evolved to work together, we are evolved to maximise our genes in subsequent generations, sometimes that can involve group selection, which makes some of our behaviour look quite altruistic and touchy feely (even if it’s actually the result of widespread adultery, meaning our ancestors were never too sure their direct relationships with close neighbours, so hedged their bets) but it stops at the tribal level (nowadays extending to any tribe we join, even if we are not closely related to the rest of the members). Benefitting the whole of humanity would only be at the expense of our individual genes, so it is not going to happen.
Great comment George. Overshoot is indeed the name of the game. Even Catton lamented that there was much that could be done on the way down to alleviate unnecessary suffering but most likely it sadly would not be done. And here we are.
Agreed, George. I’m afraid our dominant narratives put too much faith in human ingenuity and human agency.
The human population has doubled in my life-time and I’d naively assumed, until I joined X, that overshoot was pretty widely acknowledged, as it seemed to me a common sense proposition. But of course the topic is highly politicised and you risk being labelled an eco-fascist or eugenicist for even raising it.
Ditto the others – great comment, George.
Yes, Panopticon – I have learned just to keep my head down and mouth shut. Gray man strategy for me. Try to help people in my locale.
Hello Pan,
I hope for your sake you don’t get the same storm and rain pattern you had last winter. But I fear the worst when I look at the ‘long-term forecasts like this. Here it is now dry and reasonably sunny again, but the damage in some towns and villages is huge
Thanks, Zip. The seemingly endless wet weather and damp squib of a summer have weighed on my spirits a little. Our native food production is starting to become a real concern, too.
Hola, going to send you email, please check. Happy, Peaceful Now
Thanks, Amira. Will watch those of an evening. ❤
Weather is strange here in Minnesota, but on the good side. Endless days of sunshine and dry weather. A bit warmer than normal. It is going to be 80F tomorrow which is more like mid September instead of mid October. It cools down nicely at night. We had a wet Spring and Summer but the water tap turned off at the end of August. No rain since then. We are now in a moderate drought. If I have a choice between flooding or drought, I think I will choose drought. But long term… not good. And then there is the fire 🔥 risk. Enjoy each day I guess.
“Enjoy each day I guess.”
Jpf, If you figure out how to do this, please let me know. 😂
I recall that Minnesota did not get much of a winter last time around, just as we did not get much of a summer. Seasonality definitely blurring.
“The Lost Winter of 2023-24. Where on Earth did Minnesota’s winter go?”
https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/lost-winter-2023-24.html
Wonder where the habitat would be if the global population had been held at 8 million instead of the present 8 billion? Nothing like turning wild boar loose in the Garden of Eden.
Breaking news: Not one molecule of green house gasses was formed by monkey minds before 1850.
I’m always digging for the good news! 😉
Really, 1850?
Does fire not count?
Random Sunday.
I feel like I’ve been locked up in a mental institution my whole life.
At least there is one consolation, I have 8 billion fellow patients that are much sicker than me.