“Leading Nasa climate expert says July likely to be hottest month on record.
““July will likely be Earth’s hottest month in hundreds if not thousands of years,” Gavin Schmidt, the director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told reporters on Thursday, as a persistent heatwave baked swaths of the US south.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/20/nasa-climate-crisis-july-hottest-month
“Climate records tumble, leaving Earth in uncharted territory – scientists.
“…scientists already fear some worst-case scenarios are unfolding. “I’m not aware of a similar period when all parts of the climate system were in record-breaking or abnormal territory,” Thomas Smith, an environmental geographer at London School of Economics, says.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66229065
“North Atlantic and global Sea Surface Temperatures keep on destroying daily (and soon all-time) records.
“The Earth’s Energy Imbalance was already record high, and now the surface temperatures are there to show for it.”
https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1682408225012940807
“And let’s not forget about global sea ice extent, which will also be record low for each day of July, by a huge margin.
“All these records breaking at the same time, for two months in a row, should be breaking the news.”
https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1682411898241708033
“When will the jet stream move? How the stagnant winds are causing global heatwaves and what will happen next…
“Cathryn Birch, professor of meteorology and climate at University of Leeds, told the Independent the jet stream is “stuck in a stationary wavey pattern” and is “not forecast to change before the end of the month, possibly until mid-August.””
“Rampant heatwaves threaten food security of entire planet, scientists warn…
““Our food system is global,” said John Marsham, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Leeds. “There are growing risks of simultaneous major crop losses in different regions in the world, which will really affect food availability and prices.”
“Food prices climbing as record temperatures hit Europe…
“Food and drink supplies from wheat to milk and olive oil are being affected by extreme heat and drought across the European continent, as temperatures soared to over 40C in Italy, Greece and Spain. Commodity analyst Mintec warned that Spain – the world’s biggest olive grower which generates around half of global supplies – may run out of olive oil stock…”
“Cereal production in southern Europe is expected to fall by up to 60% on last year in the wake of the Charon heatwave currently gripping the continent.
“The hot weather created by the Charon anticyclone that has moved into Europe from Africa has prompted serious concerns over the quality and size of harvests this year.”
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/sourcing/cereal-crops-decimated-by-europes-heatwave/681361.article
“More records of highest Minimum temperatures yesterday in Spain:
“Malaga ap 31.6 [88.9F]; Murcia 26.8; Albacete 25.8; Castellon 26.5; Palma de Mallorca Port 27.5; Palma Airport 25.9.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1682332044234301441
“After further verification, climatologist chief of ARPAS confirms that the 47.7C [117.9F] recorded yesterday in the Rete Unita of Donori is the 2nd hottest day in Sardinia history (and 2nd highest in Italy in July) after the 48.0C of 23 July 2009 at Perfugas and Santa Maria Coghinas.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1682332987562622976
“Europe braces for yet another heatwave as Greek PM warns ‘hard times are clearly not over yet’…
“Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis warned on Thursday that “the hard times are clearly not over yet,” in remarks quoted by Sky News. “We are facing another heat wave and a possible strengthening of the winds … absolute vigilance and absolute readiness are required over the next few days,” he added.”
“Wildfires in Greece burn for fifth day as another heatwave hits…
“Firefighters, backed by air water bombers and reinforcements by several countries, including Cyprus, France, Israel and Italy, attempted to control the fire that broke out in the wider Athens area on Monday, gutting houses and forcing evacuations.”
“A new report has revealed that Italy endured its hottest and driest year on record in 2022.
“The report by the Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) and the National System for Environmental Protection said that the average temperature was over one degree Celsius above the level of 2021 and 0.58° C higher than the previous record…”
“Italy hit with giant hailstones and a tornado…
“Violent thunderstorms have again passed over northern Italy. After hail measuring 12 cm [4.7 inches] in diameter fell in Veneto on Thursday, Lombardy was hit by bad weather on Friday, with heavy hailstones and a tornado passing through the outskirts of Milan.”
https://tvpworld.com/71452533/italy-hit-with-giant-hailstones-and-a-tornado
“Lightning strikes twice as rescuers of Swiss victims are also hit.
“Lightning never strikes twice, until it does: a police officer and helicopter pilot rushing to help two people injured in a lightning strike on Friday were themselves also hit, Swiss authorities said.”
“Tunisia shuts border post with Algeria due to forest fires.
“Tunisian authorities temporarily closed Melloula post on the north-western border with Algeria on Wednesday evening, due to the spread of two fires that broke out in the nearby forest, TAP quoted Samir Kouka, the governor of the northwestern province of Jendouba, as saying.”
https://english.news.cn/africa/20230720/d07f4876c35048b49fbe7ffb1a108f1e/c.html
“Top 10 African countries facing record-breaking heat waves in 2023…
“Authorities report a surge in heat-related deaths as temperatures soar above 40°C (104°F) in many regions, with Africa being notably affected due to its equatorial regions experiencing some of the highest temperatures on the planet. WiseVoter Institute Reveals the Hottest African Countries in 2023.”
“Northern hemisphere extratropical temperature records & heatwaves are making global news right now (Europe, China, Canada). But check out the tropics…
“Yet another substantial anomalous departure from the norm for this time of year… It’s a small anomaly compared to the polar regions, but the tropics have a far less dynamic temperature range. Yet almost the entirety of tropical Africa, Mexico & most of Borneo are 2-6°C warmer than usual in places that are already hot & humid.”
https://twitter.com/DrTELS/status/1682134252467388416
“After having its hottest June on record, the record heat in Colombia is continuing this July.
“Temperatures rose above 40C [104F] in the past day in the Cesar department with the hot air reaching the coastal areas. The tourist city of Cartagena with 38.0C had its hottest July day on record.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1682364966702133250
“Heatwave emergency [Jamaica]… Government treating unusually high temperatures and prolonged drought as a disaster, says McKenzie…
“”This is something that I think Jamaicans need to pay close attention to. If we look at what is happening in other countries, there is cause for us to be concerned and to treat the present situation as a disaster.””
https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/heatwave-emergency/
“More records beaten in the Caribbeans these days include: 20-21 July:
“94F/34.4C Charlotte Amalie, US Virgin Islands July record tied for US Virgin Islands; Yesterday: 34.9C Canefield, Dominica: National Monthly record beaten… Cayman Islands are setting records nearly every day.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1682478004180598784
“Florida Keys coral reefs are already bleaching as water temperatures hit record highs, scientists say…
“The corals should be vibrant and colorful this time of year, but are swiftly going white, said Katey Lesneski, research and monitoring coordinator for Mission: Iconic Reefs, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration launched to protect Florida coral reefs.”
“Inside the most extreme heat wave the Southern U.S. has faced…
“In the Lower 48 states, global warming has manifested itself in a historically intense and prolonged heat wave, stretching from California’s interior to South Florida. The zone from Arizona to Texas has sat at the center, with record-shattering heat enduring for at least three weeks and showing little sign of relenting.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/07/21/us-heat-wave-heat-dome-climate/
“Phoenix will become the first major city in American history to average over 100°F [37.8C] for an entire month.
“The city has experienced a virtually continuous heatwave since the beginning of July, with an average high of 114.1°F and an average low of 90.2°F.”
https://twitter.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1682209140092076033
“The stifling heat wave that has affected large parts of the U.S. for more than a month will not loosen its grip anytime soon, forecasters warn.
“The longer the extreme heat lasts, the greater the economic and human health effects will be. In addition, the high temperatures are expected to contribute to drought conditions in Texas and the Southwest.”
https://www.axios.com/2023/07/21/heat-wave-us-extreme-weather-august
“Hail storm leaves behind damage, insurance woes for western Wisconsin town…
“”These massive golf ball-sized hail started slamming into the windows and signs, destroying everything,” described William Fischer of Shell Lake, Wisconsin. “The wind was going so fast you could hardly see down the street, it was crazy,” added Lily Edlin.”
“BC [Canada] is facing severe drought conditions more typical of the end of summer as thousands of firefighters battle to suppress flames in the worst fire season on record.
“The Ministry of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness held a news conference Thursday illustrating the dire situation of drought in BC.”
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/drought-wildfire-bc
“Prairie farmers already struggling with drought now dealing with damaging grasshoppers.
“Producers in some parts of southern Saskatchewan are already struggling with drought this summer. Now grasshoppers can once again be added to the list of woes. The situation is so severe south of Saskatoon that the RM of Dundurn has declared an agricultural disaster.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/drought-perfect-conditions-grasshoppers-1.6913232
“Utqiaġvik, Alaska, the most northerly community in Alaska, tied their warmest day on record yesterday (high plus low divided by 2). They have 102 years of data records.“
https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1682096001635479552
“[Footage of] tornado on Arctic Circle in Turukhansky District of Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia, Siberia.“
https://twitter.com/WeatherSarov1/status/1682439983745867785
“Long-lost Greenland ice core suggests potential for disastrous sea level rise.
“…moderate, natural warming led to large-scale melting and sea level rise of more than 1.4 meters (4.6 feet)… “When you look at what nature did in the past, as geoscientists, that’s our best clue to the future,” said Paul Bierman, a scientist at the University of Vermont and a lead author of the study. What it indicates is “frightening,” he told CNN.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/20/world/greenland-ice-sheet-melt-sea-level-rise-climate
“Record-high temperatures in Newfoundland and Labrdor should ‘sound alarm bells’ for other climate impacts, says climatologist.
“Memorial University climatologist Joel Finnis told CBC News Thursday this week’s hot weather, which broke humidex records in parts of the island, is part of a shift that has been noticed over the last couple of years.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/joel-finnis-hot-weather-nl-1.6912097
“Yesterday’s North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly is Code UFB!
“A record 1.50°C (4.45σ) above the 1991-2020 mean, the most over average of any day measured this year. And the running joke is getting old, but yes, I will probably have to extend the y-axis again tomorrow.”
https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1682407652440305664
“Another heat record in the Pacific Ocean:
“The French territory of Wallis and Futuna broke its record of the highest temperature for July with 32.5C [90.5F] today in the Futuna Airport.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1682311150363455488
“Several Chinese cities including Shanghai and Beijing braced for flooding on Friday while inland regions baked in heat threatening to shrink the country’s biggest freshwater lake.
“Wild weather swings have gripped China since April, causing deaths, damaging infrastructure, wilting crops, and raising fears over its ability to cope with climate change.”
“Heavy rainfall continues to affect southern China.
“Chongming Island in Shanghai received 142 mm [5.6 inches] of rainfall in one hour today, and Suzhou received 90.8 mm in one hour.”
https://twitter.com/yangyubin1998/status/1681915824171536386
“At least four people, including three children, have lost their lives during record-breaking rainfall in Myanmar, said a report Thursday…
“The nation’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology on Wednesday recorded a historic first of 22.75 inches of rainfall, surpassing the previous record of 11.85 inches in July 2021.”
“Seven killed in Bhutan as floods wash away part of hydropower plant.
“At least seven people were killed and 16 others missing in Bhutan after flash floods and landslides triggered by heavy rains washed away a section of a small hydroelectric plant on Thursday, local media reported.”
“Twenty two people have died and more than hundred are still trapped after a massive landslide hit a village in the western Indian state of Maharashtra…
“Several states in India have had heavy rainfall over the past two weeks, triggering floods and landslides. India’s weather department has said the rainfall will continue over the next few days…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66264958
“Glaciers are melting in Chitral [Pakistan] very quickly…
“Additional water from melting glaciers caused the Chitral river to overflow its banks on Friday.The floodwater inundated multiple houses in the Ayun valley. Locals appealed to the government for action, saying that the whole valley could be run over by water if nothing was done.”
https://www.aajenglish.tv/news/30328107
“Why Is The Euphrates River Drying Up And What Does It Mean?
“Just as the Bible warned, the Euphrates River is drying up. However, unlike supernatural explanations like the Second Coming of Jesus Christ, there is a very real environmental phenomenon driving this problem: chronic droughts and climate change.”
https://www.iflscience.com/why-is-the-euphrates-river-drying-up-and-what-does-it-mean-69923
And for those following the Mann vs. Hansen spat, this is a recent rebuttal from Hansen of Mann’s specious argument that the heating we are seeing is entirely consistent with predictions made decades ago and that there is currently no “spinning out of control”:
“…there are some misinterpretations that should be corrected. We did not say that the global temperature record to date shows an acceleration of the global warming rate. Quite the contrary, whenever we present the data we draw a straight line beginning in 1970, which shows that the warming rate has been linear… It takes little knowledge or courage for us or anyone to point out that the data are nearly linear from 1970 to 2022.
“The physics informs us that, as the data set becomes longer, it will show a post-2010 acceleration of global warming. The physics is discussed in the present version of Global warming in the pipeline.”
https://mailchi.mp/caa/peer-public-review-of-global-warming-in-the-pipeline
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
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Hello Pan,
1. Heat drought and crop failures, That’s right the price of elephant oil has risen to unprecedented heights and no doubt that won’t get any better this year when I look at the crop forecast. Especially in Spain, it is really dramatic. Difficult product olives because annually ‘switching’ is difficult 🙂
In the world of cereals it is a bit more complicated. There, in the Eu, those farmers just have to gamble every year at the grain exchange and then decide what to sow. The cost price per hectare went up enormously last year (fertiliser and energy) and is now around 250 euros per tonne for a French farmer. Must be similar in other EU countries.
That is a high cost that also explains why there is also a ‘grain war’ going on between Ukraine and neighbouring Poland Czech Republic and Hungary. Their local markets are flooded partly because of Putin’s grain war with cheap grain that disrupts local markets. Resulting farmer protests and even the closing of borders for the ‘transit’ of grain to e.g. East Sea ports. All seem to be failing and the speculator ‘grain mafia’ is thriving.
In France, meanwhile, barley and wheat harvests are very good. 5% above the long-term average. France is a grain exporting country and they hope to fill the ‘gap in market’ especially in North Africa this way. One man’s death another man’s death 🙂
Last year, the price per tonne rose to 400 euros on the market, but has since fallen again. It is precisely those prices that determine ‘supply’.
It has been too low for years, causing the area under cereals in France to decrease every year. Soft wheat has lost 300,000 hectares in five years, out of a total of 4.8 million hectares. Some farmers stopped sowing or switched to biofuel and methanisation.
But well the Mena countries Lebanon, Tunisia, Morocco Algeria, Egypt and you name it are the hare. That won’t come right either war and grain deal or not because cost prices of fertiliser and energy will continue to rise anyway. With Putin’s energy war not yielding enough, let’s go for grain.
Anyway, French farmers can breathe a sigh of relief for a while. According to INSEE’s preliminary agricultural accounts, published on Thursday, the rise in selling prices ensured that grain production rose by more than 10% in value in 2022, despite an 11% drop in volumes last year.
2. My disappeared comment was about Las Vegas economist Eliot Jacobson… I am really a fan of his and in his ‘doomer’ justification and relativisation I recognise a lot.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/cereales-bonnes-moissons-en-vue-en-france-malgre-une-meteo-capricieuse-20230706
Another learned post from our friend at consciousness.of.sheep had me laughing at this snippet:
“…since none of the alternatives to oil – fossil and non-fossil – is viable without oil, then the only possible economy in future is a shrinking one…
and nobody has figured out how to operate one of those”
Indeed!
Here’s the link to that Tim Watkin’s article at Consciousness of Sheep; an excellent summary of our predicament, which ends, “…we must conclude that the age of solutions has passed… the age of consequences is just beginning.”
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2023/07/19/our-predicament-re-stated/
Zip, thank you for your insights into the grain markets. I’m sorry we missed out on your comment about Eliot Jacobson. Here’s a thought-provoking article he wrote about what being a “doomer” means to him, for those who haven’t come across it:
https://climatecasino.net/2023/06/on-being-a-doomer/
Zip, I do apologise. For reasons unknown, WordPress sent your previous comment to Spam. I’m such a techno-ignoramus that this hadn’t even occurred to me as a possibility but thankfully my clever webmaster, Anne, spotted it. I’ll keep an eye on that folder in future. Meanwhile, here is your comment from 20th July:
As a former alps/Norway glacier guide ( late 60’s and early 70’s) I can assure you that the ‘disaster scenario’ scientists you quote have it right on their side.
Whether I sit there eating a bag of popcorn and watch the mountain regions lose their ice and water storage in Europe at breakneck speed with disastrous consequences for really anything and everything is another matter. Perhaps you are in favor of nuclear power and perhaps hydro as well.
In France, nuclear is “the” energy source and hydro still accounts for about 11%. Meanwhile, almost every one has to shut down several nuclear power plants to prevent surface water from rising too much. At the same time, the energy production of hydro plants is declining due to too little precipitation. Doesn’t seem like a win win situation 🙂 Certainly in Europe, nuclear power plants have a curious problem, namely where do they get their fuel from?
Also, the “key question” with nuclear power, and perhaps you know the answer, is until how long will the “oil age” last? Right now, it is assumed that the extractable period might last a few more decades. Isn’t that precisely a reason to switch to nuclear power? I don’t think so:)
Nuclear power from the construction of the plants to the (still not conceived waste storage) is inextricably linked from the first to the last gasp to the availability of let’s call it diesel. Nuclear power plants where France is now going to build another 6 (and upgrade the rest) should last for 80 years. Their demolition then takes another 25 years and the storage cooling of “waste” another…..???? say it.
Add in the 15-year construction phase and surely anyone planning a nuclear power plant, such as the French government, should be able to guarantee that there will be enough ‘diesel’ for at least 110 years! enough “diesel” is available and long after that to keep the “waste” in good working order……. Any child understands that the fossil era will be long gone by then and ‘we’ will be stuck with ‘something’ that you, whether or not eating popcorn, cannot oversee either.
Apparently you see something in the weird SMR thingies….. That’s totally tying the cat to the bacon…. But before that, all new “gadgets” are conveniently marketed until proven otherwise. That goes for wind turbine toys but just as much for nuclear fusion and SMR toys 🙂
The only advantage of windmills is that they only last 25 years and can be used as a landfill. You can’t say that about nuclear waste.
Thanks zip, I really appreciate the low-down on European food production, especially in cereal grains.
As an aside, I personally can no longer eat much grain since turning 50 or so, especially wheat products. Consequently, Ive had to learn to develop more paleo tastes to substitute for grains eg using nut flour and veggie rice and noodles 🙂
Nonetheless, the cereal grains form the bulk of the worlds base human food supply. Despite our 3 years of the “Long Wet”, one region of Australia has had bumper wheat and other cereals. Storage silos are overflowing with surplus, and would be good to ship it out before the rodent plague gets worse. And our Trade will be happy to supply, especially Africa. We dont have go through the Mediterranean 🙂
Though we are unfortunately in competition with other grain exporters, and I dont know how their harvests are going, or whether they would undercut our minimum prices.
As for Eliot Jacobson,(and friends) I love his work too.
When I go to the official data sources that he uses, it gets so confusing with far too much information, and he just distils it all down to simple easy-to-read graphs.
Its just sometimes on Twitter the “tone” of the tweets strike my funny bone with the anagram “Codes” he and similar have developed recently, often with exclamation marks 🙂 His detractors or trolls attack him for the “alarmist” tone.
After all, as someone said somewhere “Inevitable, does not mean imminent”, as there is still a lot of uncertainty, and even unknowns in Earth’s climate systems, and in how they interact with each other.
The devil is in the detail and all the current models in use have flaws.
Who knows? It may even flip the other extreme in 5-10 years, again surprising scientists gasping with shock at “impossible” numbers. Earth/Gaia may reset Herself.
I remember in our summer of 19/20, our “Black Summer” of back-to-back heat waves, and non-stop wildfires. That summer was the 3rd or 4th horrendous summer in a row, it never changed from the 2015/16 El Nino years.
Then within weeks of the fires finally dying out, and autumn on the calendar arriving… the skies cleared, the temps dropped, and we felt an autumn chill for the first time in years… and the rain came down. The loooong MegaDrought was finally over.
Many of us said at the time, it was like Mother Earth had hit Her reset button, or “rebooted” back to “factory default settings” LOL
That first year of cool steady rain was welcomed, unfortunately it got worse in the following 2 years and we went to other extreme with La Nina flooding, back-to-back over and over again… but thats another story…
“Its just sometimes on Twitter the “tone” of the tweets strike my funny bone with the anagram “Codes” he and similar have developed recently, often with exclamation marks His detractors or trolls attack him for the “alarmist” tone.”
I hear you, Rain. He doesn’t make any effort to disguise how fucked up he feels the climate/eco-situation is. I find it quite refreshing amidst all the traditional scientific restraint tbh.
We have to keep it linear to keep the illusion of the green new scam and to keep pumping money into this as long as possible before things stop working because its to dang hot to operate industrial civilization. Lets just ignore the fact that ipcc is being used for political reasons and not scientific. Lets keep pushing and pretending that heat pumps, solar and wind turbines will save is from a dying planet. Lets also ignore the 6th mass extinction too and pretend everything is operating as normal as heat waves get so intense we can’t cool ourselves anymore. Those in western societies are in for a deep shock with multiple meltdowns coming as they see their way of life evaporate into thin air.
Agreed on all counts, Heather!
Everyday we are seeing what’s happens when a species overpopulates it’s habitat. At least we have wishful thinking to fall back on. 😉