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“Faster than Expected …”

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I really enjoyed reading the last post from todays climate summary.  The author was soooooo close to understanding the actual situation.

He declares in a couple places that “1.5C is dead” and at least once points out that 3C is not survivable.  He is very clear that the climatology community will never provide unvarnished and realistic predictions.  Unfortunately, he stops there, and Im sure that is the subject of another psychology paper (which no doubt would conclude that psychologists are human too and therefore are not likely to be frank about human extinction).

From reading the other posts I get the feeling that there isn’t much point in listing what he didn’t say, but, what-the-heck.

1.  It will be 40 years before the effects of the CO2 in the air right now will be fully realized.

2.  COVID caused a flattening of the CO2 curve and nearly stopped global GDP growth.  So what happened?  The powers that be did everything humanly possible to cause growth to continue including wild spending and borrowing programs.

3.  The sanctions against Russia have given the EU an opportunity to stop growth, and deindustrialize.  So what is happening?  The Germans are expanding their use of soft coal while the EU as a whole is importing all the FF that they can get - even ignoring their own sanctions when necessary.

4.  While points 2 and 3 show that nothing can or will be done to stop humanities use of FFs and the search for growth, is more CO2 in the air needed to cause human extinction?  I think not.  Thawing permafrost, heating oceans, food scarcity, methane clathrate thawing, and other positive feedback cycles that have already begun are sufficient to get us to 2C.  And of course, 2 gets you 3, and 3 guarantees 4 and 4 will get us 6.

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Pintada, I agree with you. I'd add to your second point that the lockdowns also underlined what a problem we have on our hands with loss of dimming and, for various reasons, increased methane levels, when industry starts shutting down:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28537-9

Full disclosure, I haven't properly read the article yet. It was actually written and sent to me by someone I know via Facebook and I want to give it my proper attention, rather than just skim-reading, as I usually do.

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Panopticon said, “Full disclosure, I haven't properly read the article yet.”

Yeah, well I tried to read it in detail following your example and find I might not be able! 😮 ☹️  That much concentration is too hard.  I did get all the way through the abstract.

We are between a rock and a hard place.  If the world cuts emissions by reducing economic activity (political suicide for any actual leader that might appear and be so bold), the global dimming that reflects some heat away stops as the dust settles (literally).  When the dust settles, the temperature jumps up by some estimates a full degree C.  (And that ignores the methane jump that I didn’t understand.)

1.5C + 1.0C = 2.5C

Lets hope that no one does anything to stop AGW!?!??   LOL

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 Rain
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Posted by: @Anonymous
Panopticon said, “Full disclosure, I haven't properly read the article yet.” Yeah, well I tried to read it in detail following your example and find I might not be able! 😮 ☹️  That much concentration is too hard.  I did get all the way through the abstract.
Lets hope that no one does anything to stop AGW!?!?? 

I also read the introduction and concluding paras. The maths is sound as far as I can tell. 
But I am a retired nerd with time, and it beats getting outdoors at the moment and working on my yards. 
I am working up the energy to go see a National Art Gallery Exhibition. 

Indeed, between a rock and hard place. Literally for Aussies, stuck geographically between the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Pacific Ocean ENSO. 

I have only seen reports of the aerosols contribution in the last few years - but I do recall an older documentary film on 'Global Dimming' which mentioned that during the 70s, global dimming was being reduced by cleaning up our city "smog blankets" - eg. by putting in newly developed filtering technology on industrial smoke stacks, reducing the 'killer smogs'.  

Here is one of several, by Hansen: 
Global Dimming BBC

 

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@rain , I watched quite a good Paul Beckwith video on the topic recently: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=salhSetJsYs

 

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 Rain
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@panopticon Thanks, I found it interesting too 🙂

I also found this Medium series, which may interest other subscribers
https://medium.com/@benshreadhewitt/pandoras-box-anthropogenic-aerosols-and-climate-change-297ff1216016

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@rain , thanks! That research by Shau Liang is totally above my paygrade.

It sounds like (perhaps not surprisingly) the issue is more complex than first meets the eye, and that, as with clouds, there is so much variability that aerosols can both warm and cool.

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Its a rule!  Its always faster than expected

“Scientists Examine Dangerous Global Warming ‘Accelerators’.

Recent climate projections may be underestimating the pace of global warming in an atmosphere damaged by greenhouse gas emissions, because the interaction of powerful climate feedback loops that can accelerate warming are not well-represented in key climate models…

“The researchers examined 41 climate feedback loops and found 27 …”

 

Except at my house where we have had a rare taste of normal weather. Yesterday the low was -29F here which was a typical February low temp for the Colorado mountains.  The low temperatures were preceded by a full on blizzard.  Totally cool.  (So to speak.   :-).  )

 

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 Rain
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Posted by: @Anonymous
Except at my house where we have had a rare taste of normal weather.

Here too, for my southern-hemisphere summer 🙂  Even the current summer heatwave is within 'normal parameters' - 5 days of 30-35C is tolerable, and normal heatwave conditions for this time of year.  'a rare taste of normal weather' indeed - I pray it lasts. 

 

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Posted by: @rain
I pray it lasts. 

”Normal” weather didn’t last here.  40F for the high today, and above 0F forecast for tomorrows low.

 

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 Rain
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@pintada ... Still lasting for me, several weeks of glorious "normal" summer weather, with more to come or so they say...I shouldn't boast, might jinx it, but I may never have another chance to enjoy "normal" weather🎈💖🌷💖

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https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/03/with-global-warming-of-just-1-2c-why-has-the-weather-gotten-so-extreme/

A good review if very conservative.  The last paragraph is a hilarious lie of course.

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