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Will we see a major war this decade?

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Rain
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 Rain
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My parents were were born poor, and poorly educated in their home countries, both leaving schooling by age 13 or 14 during the 1920s (dad) 30s (mum). Both were active in trade unionism/communism in the years before WW2 and continued for a short time after the war when they each ended up as post-war immigrants in Australia. 

Since I have been reading "Megathreats", in one chapter on geopolitical tensions....he mentioned the "mission creep" of the US Fed and other Central Banks, weaponising currency as a tool of war.  eg. removing Russia from SWIFT. 

I flashed to childhood memories of my dad often saying 'the only way out for capitalism when it is in deep sh*t, is a war' .

When I put the book aside to grab a cuppaT, I flipped the  News channel on, with headlines of our Aussie PM, visiting Papua New Guinea to establish a bilateral "security AID pact".  This was just after a few visits to all the South Pacific Small Island States (SIS) working similar deals offering AID and "security" etc. And a heads-up flagging our next Budget in May, with increasing Defence spending. 

Australia always sends troops whenever USA asks, we even did years of conscription (aka the Draft) for the Vietnam War, and had similar bloody protests on our streets as the USA did. 

But I have never heard of Oz taking a leading role, even as a puppet proxy mouthpiece for the USA.  

Friends of mine who work for the Defence Ministry have told me that Oz always jumping up to enthusiastically volunteer to send our troops, like many other small countries (eg the Nordic countries) is mainly to allow our little army, airforce etc to get real combat experience and give them a chance to learn to use fancy military "toys" that we can't afford 🙂

Though we did send a bunch of our very own bushwhacker all-terrain military vehicles to Ukraine.  And apparently we have designed a cute "smart" all-terrain ground patrol-bot, which can be driven remotely from anywhere in the world. 

Then I read about the BRICS+ group of countries, making mumbles about moving away from the US dollar in international financials.   I guess the US Fed wouldn't like that at all, perhaps there will be an assassination of one of the BRICS leaders, to scare the rest. 

So methinx, the plot is thickening.  Perhaps the conspiracy theory that it was the US, that blew up the Nordstream pipelines is not so theoretical after all? 

What do others think?

 

 

 

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Panopticon
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Rain, logically I felt that the US had the most to gain and the least to lose from the Nord Stream 1 sabotage but it is so hard to see through all the propaganda and obfuscation.

I think it is pretty much a given that we are entering an era of heightened conflict, as financial sleight of hand can no longer paper over our problem with physically diminishing returns... although quite which fault lines spew forth the most lava remains to be seen.

Re Oz, I've been surprised these past few years but how antagonistic the general attitude towards China has been, given that China is by far its largest trading partner. It looks like that situation might be easing a little though: 

"China effectively ended a ban on Australian coal that has been a centerpiece of a diplomatic dispute lasting more than two years, in the latest indication that Beijing is taking a less confrontational approach in its foreign policy as the economy struggles."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-moves-to-repair-ties-with-australia-by-lifting-coal-ban-11673514548

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Rain
 Rain
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Posted by: @panopticon

Rain, logically I felt that the US had the most to gain and the least to lose from the Nord Stream 1 sabotage but it is so hard to see through all the propaganda and obfuscation.
I think it is pretty much a given that we are entering an era of heightened conflict, as financial sleight of hand can no longer paper over our problem with physically diminishing returns... although quite which fault lines spew forth the most lava remains to be seen.

Re Oz, I've been surprised these past few years but how antagonistic the general attitude towards China has been, given that China is by far its largest trading partner. It looks like that situation might be easing a little though:
"China effectively ended a ban on Australian coal that has been a centerpiece of a diplomatic dispute lasting more than two years, in the latest indication that Beijing is taking a less confrontational approach in its foreign policy as the economy struggles."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-moves-to-repair-ties-with-australia-by-lifting-coal-ban-11673514548


Yes, exactly which fault lines, I expect both but maybe not at the same time. 

As for China, it was Australia that initiated the "repair" LOL - within days after the May 2022 election. 

Our previous govt, led by Scott Morrison or 'ScoMo' (AKA 'Scummo" - a Trump/BJohnson wannabe) diplomatically attacked China on several occasions in the previous few years. Even claiming that the - then - Opposition Leader - was being set up as the "Manchurian Candidate" implying China had interfered in our elections. 

This is because our Conservatives have ALWAYS been, from at least the 1960s during the Vietnam War years -- "All the Way With LBJ" in foreign policy.  Doesn't matter which f'wit sits in the White House at any given point in time, they are always God.  

So when Trump started being an a'hole towards China, our conservative PM followed suit in lock-step. ScoMo even pissed off Macron over a long-standing nuclear sub deal switching from France to the US/UK, and Macron was very public in his angry responses towards Oz. 

So anyway - China got royally pissed off, and so gave us a back-hander, a face-slap with trade, coal but also a number of other industries got hit as 'collateral damage' with punitive tariffs. Along with some cyberwarfare etc. And being just a little tinpot Pacific country - obviously we got hurt far harder than the US did in their Trade War.  

So, May 2022 - Labor got in with a comfortable majority - within days of being sworn in, our lovely delightful Senator Penny Wong (can you tell I like her? LOL) as our newly minted Foreign Minister took off to both the Pacific Island countries (which had made noises during the previous few years that they were leaning toward making deals with China for AID etc because Scummo kept ignoring them). 
Then also along to China to meet with her counterparts for 3 days of talks on trade, negs for getting 2 or 3 Aussie citizens out of their draconian jails, amongst other things, I can only guess. 

Probably did a line of we are so, so, really, (really) very (very) sorry for the previous government's diplomatic & trade blunders, but we are under new management now 🙂 

Our Labor governments, have always tried to take a middle-line as an 'honest broker' type of role in international relationships.  Courteous to a fault - we negotiate, we trade. 
With everyone. The friendly country under a Labor Govt. A US puppet 50-somethingth state under the conservatives. We don't trust either side, certainly not the USA - they have screwed us over so many times, during and after WW2 - we know they would sacrifice us, renege on deals etc, without a 2nd thought regardless, of any clauses in the ANZUS Treaty. 

But we don't want be invaded, or bombed back to the Stone Age either, so in the event we can't negotiate being left alone (whoever wins) -- I see our current govt visits to PNG, NZ & Pacific Islands etc as just-in-case -- establishing the best type of defence/border lines that we can, with what little we may have. 

 

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Cassandra
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Thanks for your post and I agree with your dad, @Rain. War is always their answer. Unfortunately, the neocon hawks are currently running the show in the US and its European vassal states. The US does not want good relations between especially Germany and Russia and is doing a bang-up job of ensuring that, including, yes, blowing up Nordstream IMO and crushing moves toward peace negotiations in Ukraine two months after the war started (UK put a stop to that). 

I think we are already at war, and nearly world war three, at that. All the baloney going on from US neocons re China. The insanity will never stop. It breaks my heart.

Re: "the BRICS+ group of countries, making mumbles about moving away from the US dollar in international financials." Oh yes, and MUCH MORE than rumblings. But the numerous meetings are not much reported in western MSM. The US deep state/CIA, etc will undoubtedly assassinate key figures when it can, but the tide is turning against the West. The global south is tired of western colonial exploitation and are turning to BRICS and the east. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) being one example.

War is big business. Immense. What a tragic waste of precious material resources and human effort. But...that's the way it goes. Down the drain we swirl.

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Rain
 Rain
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Posted by: @cassandra

Thanks for your post and I agree with your dad, @Rain. War is always their answer. Unfortunately, the neocon hawks are currently running the show in the US and its European vassal states. The US does not want good relations between especially Germany and Russia and is doing a bang-up job of ensuring that, including, yes, blowing up Nordstream IMO and crushing moves toward peace negotiations in Ukraine two months after the war started (UK put a stop to that). 

I think we are already at war, and nearly world war three, at that. All the baloney going on from US neocons re China. The insanity will never stop. It breaks my heart.

*nodding* @cassandra

I've moved on a couple of chapters of 'Megathreats'. Fascinating book for me  as he gives so much history and well-researched background! Economic and political. I have to keep pausing every few pages, to let the awesome points made sink in and process it. 

All sorts of factoids I never knew before, but am now in the 'New Cold War' chapter and following the US views on China, back to Nixon's first visit, it's ultimate entry into the WTO in 2001, and constant complaints from the US following the GFC, that China won't "play by the rules" LOL  This snippet quoted below snagged my attention:

"The era of Western domination was a 200-year aberration,” Singapore diplomat Kishore Mahbubani told an audience at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government in early 2021. “It’s coming to an end". 

Indeed. As Britannia once "ruled the waves", only to decline in power and influence, as the US ruled us all for more than a century by the power of the Buck, so too will it decline in turn.  After all, it's last few military engagements have been at best, embarrassing costly retreats. Losing the Alamo again and again.  But it won't go down alone, the US seems determined to take Europe/UK with it. 

I'm now thinking the 'collapse of industrial civilisation' we've all been watching, may not be a complete global collapse after all.  

 

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Cassandra
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US-led western hegemony is definitely on the ropes but the neocons won't go without a fight aka war(s), baby! Personally, I think nukes will fly before IC is completely over. In any case, the collapse of the west will not be separate from the east. China is a long way from being a consumer-driven economy and when all those exploited Chinese laborers (and in so many other Asian countries) are out of work it won't be pretty. 

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