“Today’s energy crisis will probably become worse than the 1970s oil shock… Five factors could create higher prices and political instability across the world…
In the 1970s, only oil was involved, whereas this crisis encompasses natural gas, coal, and even the nuclear-fuel cycle. In addition to stoking inflation, today’s crisis is transforming a previously global market into one that is fragmented and more vulnerable to disruption, crimping economic growth. And, together with the geopolitical crisis arising from the war in Ukraine, it is further deepening the world’s great-power rivalries.
“Gasoline surge pushes up costs for chemicals used in essential goods.
“A surge in gasoline prices has caused a shortage of chemicals that are also used to produce goods like car parts and pharmaceutical products, placing further pressure on costs for manufacturing essential items.”
“Soaring fuel prices hit oil demand in developed countries, IEA says.
“Record fuel prices are hitting oil demand in developed countries harder than anticipated, the International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday, in the latest sign of inflationary pressures forcing consumers to cut back.”
“IMF Chief Warns of Debt Crisis as Higher Rates Follow Covid, War…
“Nations that don’t earn the US currency but have to service debt in the greenback are finding it “twice as hard” to keep up, Georgieva said, adding that about 30% of developing and emerging-market nations are either in or near debt distress.”
“Global recession risk rising as economic outlook ‘darkens significantly’, IMF says…
““It is going to be a tough 2022 – and possibly an even tougher 2023, with increased risk of recession.” The IMF would be downgrading its growth forecasts for global growth for both 2022 and 2023 later this month, she said, having warned in April that its forecast of 3.6% was likely to be revised downwards.”
“Soaring gas and food prices catapult US inflation to 40-year-high.
“US inflation accelerated in June by more than forecast, led by elevated prices for gasoline, food and housing costs and resulting in the largest annual increase in inflation in more than 40 years. The news virtually guarantees that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by another three-quarters of a point this month.”
“Truckers Protest California Gig-Work Law at Three Key Ports.
“Truckers servicing some of the US’s busiest ports are staging protests Wednesday as state-level labor rules that change their employment status begin to go into effect, creating another choke point in stressed US supply chains.”
“Euro dips below parity against dollar for first time since 2002…
““Gas rationing, stagflation, an expected recession, they are all good reasons to be bearish on the euro,” said Stuart Cole, the head macro economist at Equiti Capital in London, before the euro crossed that threshold.”
“Russian energy company Gazprom appeared to cast doubt Wednesday on the prospects of quickly restoring the flow of natural gas to full capacity through a major pipeline to Western Europe…
“Gazprom tweeted Wednesday that it “does not possess any documents that would enable Siemens to get the gas turbine engine … out of Canada.””
“Germany Will Stop Buying Russian Coal On August 1, Oil On December 31…
“Russia previously supplied 40 percent of Germany’s coal and 40 percent of its oil, Deputy Finance Minister Joerg Kukies on July 13 told the Sydney Energy Forum, hosted by the Australian government and the International Energy Agency.”
“Germans could switch to wood this winter to heat their homes as Russia withholds natural gas, Deutsche Bank says…
“Deutsche Bank’s assertion that households could turn to wood for heat isn’t without merit. Amid a power outage last winter, Texas households resorted to burning wood and furniture for heat. [Way to sell the concept, DB!] The switch, Deutsche Bank says, would further drive down gas demand in Germany.”
“German investor sentiment collapsed in July, as fears that Germany could be plunged into recession continue to grow.
“With Germany facing huge energy supply issues, as well as interest rate rises from the European Central Bank, the ZEW economic research institute reports that its economic sentiment index has dropped below levels seen during the initial stages of the Covid pandemic.”
“Thousands participated in demonstrations in response to the changes in Budapest on Tuesday, where protestors successfully occupied one of the main bridges in the capital for several hours before being pushed out by the police. Protests were also held in the cities of Debrecen and Szeged.”
“Hungary declares ‘energy emergency’ over threat of fuel shortages…
“Hungary will boost its annual production of natural gas… increase the extraction of lignite (brown coal) and put a currently non-functioning lignite-fired power plant back online… Energy exports will be banned, and Hungary’s only nuclear power plant will also increase its production by extending its operating times…”
“Can France ensure its energy security this winter?
“…Major cities in France will almost certainly face power cuts this year and the next, one source working in corporate risk management told EURACTIV, speaking on the condition of anonymity. They added that all European governments “are preparing for blackouts” and “energy executives and political leaders are hoping the winter will not be too cold.””
“A disaster prevention expert suggests people in Japan prepare rechargeable batteries, frozen gel packs and ice in case of blackouts during a severe heat wave.
“An energy conservation drive for businesses and households began on July 1 after a request by the Japanese government to avoid electricity shortfalls this summer.”
“China’s Heatwave Turns Deadly as Industrial Power Cuts Begin.
“Scorching temperatures across China have turned deadly, with hospitals reporting patients dying of heat stroke, as officials begin curtailing power to factories to ensure sufficient supply for air-conditioners… China is not alone in facing extreme weather this summer, as climate change pushes the boundaries of what forecasters are used to planning for.”
“China’s Henan bank scandal not just a financial crisis, it may be a lasting political calamity: analysts.
“The Henan bank scandal, in which 40 billion yuan (US$6 billion) in deposits disappeared, is more than a Chinese banking crisis – it is a political crisis that could undermine people’s confidence in local governance and also other local banks, according to analysts.”
“More Chinese Homebuyers Refuse to Pay Mortgage Loans Amid Contagion Fears.
“A rapidly increasing number of disgruntled Chinese homebuyers are refusing to pay mortgages for unfinished construction projects, exacerbating the country’s real estate woes and stoking fears that the crisis will spread to the wider financial system.”
“Argentine farm groups strike to protest government policies.
“Argentina’s four main farm associations halted their activities on Wednesday in protest over the policies of President Alberto Fernandez’s administration. The strike comes amid a challenging economic climate marked by fuel shortages in some regions and difficulties in importing fertilizer.”
“Panama protests continue despite fuel and food price cuts.
“Thousands of Panamanians took to the street again on Tuesday to protest rising inflation and government corruption, despite the announcement of price cuts for fuel and some food products. The demonstrations… have lasted for two weeks and resulted in some main highways being closed.”
“Famine feared if inflation in Mexico is not controlled, economist says.
“One of Mexico’s most renowned economists is predicting Mexico will reach a 10 percent inflation rate by the end of the year, which would be “disastrous and could lead to famine in some parts of the country.” …Carstens warns prices for basic foods are spiraling upward by more than 13 percent…”
“Week of gang battles kills dozens, deepens fuel crisis in Haiti.
“A week of gang violence in Haiti’s capital has left at least 89 people dead, a rights group said Wednesday, as soaring prices, fuel shortages and gang warfare accelerate a brutal downward spiral in the security situation in Port-au-Prince… Gas stations in Port-au-Prince don’t have any gas to sell, causing prices on the black market to skyrocket.”
“Nigeria Needs Higher Revenue to Avert Debt Distress, DMO Says.
“Nigeria’s debt management office defended the government’s eurobond issuances to fund its spending plans but said the nation needs to generate significantly more revenue beyond current levels to avoid debt distress.”
“Ghana inflation scales new peak as it seeks IMF bailout.
“Consumer inflation in Ghana accelerated to 29.8 percent annually in June from 27.6 percent in May, official data showed on Wednesday, shattering another record while the West African nation talks to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for support.”
“Cameroon Orders Investment in Wheat Production to Quell Protests Sparked by Shortages.
“Cameroon’s agriculture minister, Gabriel Mbairobe, says Biya responded to pleas from civilians that the cost of living is becoming very high, and many Cameroonians are finding it very difficult to put food on the table.”
““As we look at 2023, we know that this will repeat itself. These climate shocks will repeat themselves; food insecurity will remain as acute as it is,” said Patrick Youssef. “It will not end with the calendar year. So, we all will better collectively be prepared for a long haul, for a situation, for a crisis that will certainly increase in size and volume.””
“The people of Libya are enduring electricity cuts of up to 18 hours a day, despite their country sitting atop Africa’s largest proven oil reserves. After a decade of violence, rising poverty and fragmenting government, many have reached the limits of their tolerance.”
“Sri Lanka crisis: Six-mile daily walk for food as demand for free meals soars and people struggle to survive…
“The food crisis is so acute that the United Nations estimates 70% of people are missing a meal every day and one in five are hungry. It’s a shocking economic collapse for a country once regarded as a middle-income nation, with a strong agricultural sector and burgeoning tourist industry.”
“Sri Lanka’s Bailout Slips Further Away as Nation Misses a Leader…
““The IMF will need a constitutionally mandated government to negotiate with,” said Matthew Vogel, London-based portfolio manager and head of sovereign research at FIM Partners. “The role of the central bank governor now is key and the international community, facing a humanitarian crisis, will have to consider additional emergency aid.””
““We know the lesson of recent history is that one crisis leads to another. We think of the global financial crisis, then the Eurozone crisis. Then look at the Arab Spring and political unrest. These things are connected, and so we can’t just disassociate. The economic and political repercussions are deeply intertwined,” Lipsky explained.”
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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“Rising Social Unrest Over Energy, Food Shortages Threatens Global Stability…
“This increasing level of instability resulting from rising fuel shortages, supply chain disruptions and the rapidly-escalating prices that inevitably result are now creating food shortages that have placed hundreds of millions of individuals in developing nations around the world under a very real threat of starvation.”
“The world faces a summer of unrest – how and where the chaos spreads is hard to call… Around the world, dissent is simmering and coming to the boil…
“Each place has its own grievances. They are being exacerbated, however, by the same factors menacing the world: post-pandemic inflation and rising interest rates, soaring fuel and food prices.”
“The Global Energy Crisis May Get Worse, IEA’s Birol Warns.
“A global squeeze on energy supply that’s triggered crippling shortages and sent power and fuel prices surging may get worse, according to the head of the International Energy Agency. “The world has never witnessed such a major energy crisis in terms of its depth and its complexity,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Tuesday.”
“Western energy majors will cut output and lose billions of dollars if Russia, as is feared, suspends a pipeline that is almost the only export route for oil from land-locked Kazakhstan…
“The closure of the CPC pipeline that carries oil from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea Russian export terminal in the port of Novorossiisk would shut in more than 1% of global oil supply, exacerbating what is already the most severe energy crunch since the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s.”
“Plunging prices of commodities are eerily reminiscent of the 2008 global financial crisis and indicate the world is headed for a deep recession, says Societe Generale.
“Copper has plummeted 20.6% since its May peak, while aluminium is down almost 18%, and nickel 30.5%. Prices of agricultural commodities, including corn and soybeans, also have fallen steeply.”
“Is the US starting to resemble an emerging market? Political risk and volatility are on the rise as the country’s divisions begin to deepen…
“I used to scoff at colleagues who, following the election of Donald Trump, predicted that the US would someday splinter into separate states. I am not laughing any more… While US political risk in global comparisons is still relatively low (it ranks 85 out of the 127 countries tracked by Rosenberg), it is now by far the highest of any developed market.”
“New York releases video explaining what to do in a nuclear attack…
“The presenter… listed three important steps for what to do immediately afterwards. “Step one: Get inside fast,” she said. “Staying in the car is not an option. You need to get into a building and move away from the windows.” From there she detailed what to do once inside.”
“One in six households in the UK, about 4.4m, face “serious financial difficulties” as the cost of living crisis worsens with inflation at 40 year highs.
“This is an increase of 1.6m households from October last year, with over half of all UK households considering their financial situation to be worse now than during the pandemic, research by abrdn Financial Fairness Trust and the University of Bristol found.”
“British companies are preparing for a recession this year as they face the double hit of slowing consumer demand and rapidly rising costs from inflation on their own businesses.
“Multiple companies told the Financial Times they had begun “war gaming” for a recession in recent weeks, with some adjusting medium-term plans for a period of low or no economic growth.”
“Europe’s Natural-Gas Crisis Is Worse Than It Looks…
“While the gas market then priced in a short-lived crisis, lasting perhaps a couple of months, it’s now flashing extreme danger for next winter, through 2023 and, increasingly, into 2024. Over the last few days, the whole European gas price curve has repriced at a much higher level.”
“The doomsday scenario of a winter without Russian gas. Millions of jobs are at risk and gas rationing is on the table as Europe fears the Kremlin will choke off supplies…
“…the lesson of recent months is to prepare for extreme scenarios. Energy experts including Dr Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, have warned Europe to get ready for cut-offs.”
“Fearing Russian gas shut-off, France’s industry turns to oil.
“France’s energy-intensive companies are speeding up contingency plans and converting their gas boilers to run on fuel oil as they seek to avoid disruption in the event any further reduction in Russian gas supplies leads to power outages.”
“French Nuclear Output Seen Curtailed as River Temperatures Rise.
“The hot weather hitting Europe this week is set to reduce power output from France’s fleet of nuclear reactors, risking even higher electricity prices as the continent endures its worst energy crunch in decades.”
“Russia’s Gazprom PJSC will further cut gas supplies to Italy by about one third, the country’s energy giant Eni SpA said in a statement Monday…
“The one-third cut will further reduce gas supply that has already been curtailed by as much as a half since mid June. It comes as Italy battles with drought and a heatwave that are hitting power generation and as the country struggles to fill storages for the winter.”
“Austria to tap fuel reserves again during refinery outage.
“Austria said on Monday it plans to release fuel from its national reserves for a second time since an accident at the country’s biggest refinery in June prolonged an outage that is set to continue at least for another month.”
“Albania: Thousands join opposition protest over price hikes…
“Albania has seen a hike in the prices of basic food products and fuel linked to the war in Ukraine and the lasting impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The protest was organized by the main opposition center-right Democratic Party…”
“Close to 30 million people are under some form of movement restrictions as more cities and counties across China seek to quell resurgent Covid-19 outbreaks…
“New infections in Shanghai jumped to more than 60 for Sunday, from near zero just over a week ago, spurring concern the city’s brutal two-month lockdown could be revived. Other metropolises are imposing curbs as outbreaks flare, putting China’s zero-tolerance approach to the virus to the test once again.”
“Protest in China over frozen bank accounts ends in violence.
“A rare large-scale protest in China’s central Henan province has been violently broken up by unidentified security personnel, amid outcry over a financial scandal that has exposed the fragility of the country’s banking system.”
“Chile currency plunge, inflation rattle Latin America’s copper king…
“The Chilean peso has plummeted more than 15% over the last month, briefly hitting 1,000 pesos per dollar for the first time ever, a development that has sparked alarms. Yearly inflation hit 12.5% in June, the highest in nearly three decades.”
“Argentine anti-government protests build as president calls for unity…
“The South American country, a major producer of soy and corn, is grappling with inflation running at over 60%, huge pressure on the peso currency and spiking gas import costs that are draining already weak foreign currency reserves.”
“Panama government reduces fuel prices in face of protests.
“”I understand the dissatisfaction of various sectors with the situation we are experiencing, caused by the effects of the pandemic and the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine,” Laurentino Cortizo said in a statement.”
“Teargas, live bullets in Jinja [Uganda] as motorists protest skyrocketing fuel prices…
“Fuel prices have skyrocketed in recent months hitting a high of 6,300 Shillings for a litre of petrol and 6,200 for a litre of diesel at pump stations in major towns across the country. This is almost double, the cost of the same fuel product over the last one year.”
“Kenya dispatch: high cost of living prompts Nairobi protests in presidential election run-up…
“Currently a packet of maize flour costs Ksh23,0 which is an increase of approximately Ksh100 over the usual price. A 10-roll packet of tissue which used to retail approximately between Ksh195- 280 has skyrocketed to Ksh500. Milk and oil prices have also risen. Kenyans are therefore left wondering how they are going to survive…”
“Tunisia’s scarred economy dealt further blow by war in Ukraine…
““There was a period when you could not find flour or semolina, now it’s better but they only give you two packets,” said Khaola, a divorced mother of two teenagers. “There is no sugar, and rice is scarce. Prices are so high, I can no longer afford meat or tuna and I haven’t bought fruit for a month.””
“Business experts warn of social unrest in Pakistan amid deepening economic crisis…
“Amid the deepening economic crisis in Pakistan, the business leaders of the country have warned that the country is heading toward social unrest and fear that it is becoming unsafe for foreign investment due to back-to-back government policies that seek to discourage investors.”
“Sri Lanka: Protesters say they found millions of rupees in Prez Rajapaksa house; army chief appeals for peace.
“Sri Lankan Army chief General Shavendra Silva on Sunday sought people’s support to maintain peace in the island nation as it grapples with an unprecedented economic crisis… Meanwhile Sri Lankan police on Sunday arrested three people for setting Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s private residence on fire…”
“Sri Lanka’s collapse could be a foretaste of further chaos.
“As an example of what happens when states fail, it is impossible not to look beyond the example of Sri Lanka… When people talk about a return to the 1970s, they are not thinking hard enough. The model which should concern us is the 1930s, and The Great Depression.”
[Except now there are nearly 8 billion of us (versus 2 billion in 1930) on a planet nearing ecological breaking point. The vast majority of us are dependent on increasingly vulnerable, de-localised supply-chains for our sustenance. There are no new sources of abundant, cheap energy to tap and central banks have exhausted their goody bag of financial tricks to juice growth.
In other words, we are, barring a miracle, entering a period of increasingly chaotic de-growth with no means of pulling ourselves out of it and minimal self-reliance capacities to fall back on. At some point de-growth is likely to become rapidly self-reinforcing and slide into a broad, socio-economic collapse.]
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is a huge help, especially as the cost of living crisis is biting here in the UK.
“Russian president Vladimir Putin has threatened “catastrophic consequences” for world energy markets if western powers impose further sanctions on Moscow, as G7 members discuss plans to try to cap Russia’s oil revenues following its invasion of Ukraine…
“His comments will increase concerns that Russia could look to disrupt oil supplies if G7 members move ahead with plans to try to cap the price Russia can receive for its crude, the primary source of government revenues.”
“With world in energy shock, Saudi oil cushion gets very thin.
“Gary Ross, a veteran OPEC and Saudi observer, said Saudi production capacity might be no more than 11 million bpd because low drilling rates of the past years have failed to replace losses in existing capacity. “We are running on empty!” Ross said.”
“OPEC+ Is Still 2.5 Million Bpd Below Its Production Target.
“OPEC+ pumped more than 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) below its target in June, despite a rebound in Russia’s oil production that helped the group’s output rise by 730,000 bpd from May, according to the Argus survey published on Friday.”
“Global diesel demand starts to slacken as economy falters…
“Something similar occurred at this point in 2008, when softening manufacturing activity coincided with record crude prices to encourage maximum fuel conservation and diesel demand began to fall.”
“Boris Johnson leaves world’s fifth biggest economy in crisis.
“… his popularity outside parliament has also been badly dented by surging inflation and stagnation in the British economy, a cost-of-living crisis that threatens to impoverish millions more people this winter, and the risk of a damaging trade war with the European Union.”
“[UK] Energy bills could reach more than £3,300 a year this winter in the latest blow to households struggling to cope with the soaring cost of living crisis.
“The research firm Cornwall Insight published new, higher forecasts that show the energy price cap is on track to rise to £3,244 a year in October, when it is next adjusted, as wholesale prices continue to soar. The default tariff cap is expected to be raised again in January…”
“Norway’s Hydropower Reserves Hit Hard By Drought.
“While Europe scrambles to procure natural gas for winter power generation and heating, Western Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer, Norway, has a whole different power problem this summer—dry weather, which depletes water reservoirs for hydropower…”
“Heat Wave Spreads Across Europe Raising Risk in Energy Crisis…
“Temperatures are soaring across Europe, drying up waterways and boosting demand for electricity to cool homes as the region faces a crunch for energy supplies. It’s a continuation of this summer’s remarkable heat…”
“Low Rhine Water Levels Risk Worsening Europe’s Energy Crunch…
““Low water levels on the Rhine mean that barges cannot load steam coal at full capacity” for power plants in Germany, said Guillaume Perret, founder of energy consultancy Perret Associates. “This could be a double whammy for the German utilities, as they were already facing a shortage of barges.””
“Germany begins energy rationing as gas prices spike.
“Local authorities in Germany have begun rationing energy, dimming street lights and closing swimming pools to cope with soaring gas prices in the wake of Russia’s move to slash energy supplies… “The situation is more than dramatic,” Axel Gedaschko, head of the federation of German housing enterprises, told the FT. “Germany’s social peace is in great danger.””
“The flow of gas from Russia to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will stop on Monday for a planned 10-day maintenance period. The question is: Will flows then resume?
“Germany is largely dependent on Russian gas to fuel its export-led economy and to keep homes warm. But Europe’s largest economy has been bracing for a possible complete halt in Russian supplies…”
“France can’t tackle inflation crisis with more debt – central bank.
“The French state cannot afford to bear alone the economic fallout from the Ukraine crisis, the country’s central bank governor said on Thursday… Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that households would have to face a temporary drop in purchasing power…”
“Euro Zone Faces Recession With or Without Gas Cut-Off, ING Says…
““The long-awaited economic recovery of the euro zone has been canceled,” economist Carsten Brzeski wrote in a note on Thursday. “None of the current risk factors for the euro-zone economy is likely to disappear soon.””
“Chinese property developers face a $13bn wall of foreign currency bond payments in the second half of this year, as a mounting default tally darkens the market outlook.
“China’s real estate sector has struggled to come to grips with slowing growth coupled with authorities’ efforts to rein in excess leverage. Waves of defaults have been triggered…”
“China’s once profitable railways records $900bn debt over push for growth.
“What was once China’s profitable high-speed railways is now heading towards a trillion-dollar disaster after reports of debt nearing a whopping USD 900 billion. Even in the face of mounting debt, China State Railway Group is doubling down on its expansion of what is already the world’s largest high-speed rail network…”
“Protesters in cars are reportedly blocking Route 160 near Playa Blanca, Biobio Province, between Coronel and Lota late July 7 to protest rises in fuel prices. Reports indicate that traffic is heavily blocked on the route.”
“Argentina turmoil sparks panic buying and price hikes.
“”Every day it’s like going out to hunt a lion,” Luis Sacco told AFP in front of his electronics store in the capital Buenos Aires. Since Monday, prices have risen dramatically at shops and businesses across the country. On Saturday, economy minister Martin Guzman resigned following months of pressure…”
“Surging Fuel Costs Pressure African States as Protests Build…
“Currency weakness resulting from rising interest rates in rich countries is exacerbating matters. The currencies of Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya all dropped to record lows against the dollar this week and will continue to depreciate…”
“Concern over impact of load shedding on [South Africa’s] agriculture industry…
“Christo van der Rheede, the executive director of Agri SA, said the impact of the power outages on the agricultural sector and the wider economy held serious implications for food security and social stability… Van der Rheede said that electricity was central to modern farming practices…”
“‘It’s getting scary.’ How the war in Ukraine plunged this Middle East nation [Egypt] into crisis…
“Egyptian households of all income levels are seeing their spending power erode fast. The economic crisis raises prospects of unrest in a country where a regime was overthrown just a decade ago in an uprising calling for “bread, freedom and social justice.””
“Lebanon plans to send 15,000 Syrians back home each month.
“Despite staunch opposition from the UN and rights organizations, Lebanon has announced it intends to start repatriating tens of thousands of Syrian refugees within the next few months. The plan will entail sending back 15,000 Syrian refugees each month.”
“Iraq Summer Power Shortages Grow Despite New CCGT…
“Iraq’s electricity demand keeps on climbing and its overstretched infrastructure is struggling to cope. Government forecasts point to a 1.4GW year-on-year increase in peak demand to a new record 34.18GW for summer 2022 – with this month likely marking the peak.”
“The ongoing energy crisis in Pakistan is likely to continue after the country’s purchaser of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) failed to receive a single offer for its latest tender…
““That illustrates both the extent of the global fuel shortage, and also the reluctance of suppliers to sell to a country in the depths of an economic crisis,” said the report.”
“Bangladesh goes for power austerity amid energy crisis.
“Bangladesh has restricted electricity consumption across the country from Friday to cope with a shortage of gas supplies to power plants amid to rising prices, a measure that comes into effect just ahead of the Islamic festival of Eid-ul-Adha.”
“Sri Lanka protests: thousands storm president’s residence in Colombo.
“The island of 22 million people is struggling under a severe foreign exchange shortage that has limited essential imports of fuel, food and medicine, plunging it into the worst economic crisis since independence in 1948.”
“The number of emerging markets in the world where investors believe default is a real possibility or are already in default has more than doubled in the past six months, up to 19 nations.
“The data from Bloomberg Economics paints a grim picture as the surge in global interest rates and inflation takes its toll.”
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with a ‘Climate’ thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is a huge help, especially as the cost of living crisis is biting here in the UK.
“Labor Unrest Disrupts Supply Chains From Sky to Sea.
“…after years of stagnating wages, workers want to get paid. They’re tired of seeing their incomes evaporate as inflation surges, especially those in logistics or other front-line industries that kept economies functioning during the pandemic.”
“IMF chief says ‘cannot rule out’ possible global recession.
“The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday said the outlook for the global economy had “darkened significantly” since April and she could not rule out a possible global recession next year given the elevated risks.”
“Copper price crash deepens as recession fears loom over metals trading…
“The last quarter was the worst for metals since the financial crisis in 2008, and July has brought little relief as fears of a recession dominate markets. It’s a rapid turnaround from March, when the LMEX Index of six metals soared to an all-time high amid fears that Russia’s attack on Ukraine would fuel shortages.”
“Red flag: [US] Consumers are using Buy Now, Pay Later to cover everyday expenses…
“While other household debt, such as credit card spending and auto loans, is gathered and tracked by the Federal Reserve, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) data is not included because the financing is typically provided by non-bank sources and not yet reported in a comprehensive manner to credit bureaus.”
“Bank of England warns that economic outlook has ‘deteriorated materially’…
““The economic outlook for the UK and globally has deteriorated materially,” the BoE said in its latest Financial Stability Report. “Prices of essential goods such as food and energy have risen sharply in the UK and globally, and the outlook for growth has worsened.”
“UK Grid Turns Screws on Industry to Cut Winter Gas Use.
“Britain’s grid operator is set to crank up the pressure on big energy users, taking a more forceful stance on curbing their natural gas consumption as it tries to head off the threat of fuel shortages.”
“Dutch farmers’ protests over emission cuts resume after police fire shots…
“Police say they fired warning shots late on Tuesday and arrested several people after protesting farmers started driving their tractors toward officers at a highway entry lane in Friesland. But the protesters contest the police’s statement, claiming they posed no threat to the officers.”
“Social unrest over spiralling living costs spreads to France’s railways.
“Railway workers in France went on strike on Wednesday, disrupting travel across the rail network days before the summer holidays begin and at a time of unrest in other areas of the economy as high inflation eats into salaries.”
“New French PM vows to nationalise EDF and tackle cost of living crisis…
“Elisabeth Borne vowed to limit the impact of rising energy prices despite the political turmoil of Emmanuel Macron losing control of parliament in recent legislative elections. “We must have full control over our electricity production and performance,” Borne told parliament in her first state-of-the-nation speech to parliament…”
“Norway’s government steps in to end oil and gas strike, averting a new energy shock for Europe…
“Natural gas prices spiked after Norwegian oil and gas workers went on strike over a pay dispute Tuesday, shutting three fields in the North Sea and threatening to escalate action over the course of the week… The Norwegian government has proposed a compulsory wage arbitration to settle the dispute…”
“Russia is set to switch off the gas for work on a key pipeline [Nord Stream 1] — and Germany fears the worst…
“No gas is expected to be transported via the pipeline once the annual inspection gets underway, Bundesnetzagentur’s Mueller said, adding: “We cannot rule out the possibility that gas transport will not be resumed afterwards for political reasons.” Analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group agree.”
“Power prices in Europe smashed through records as Russia’s tightening squeeze on energy supplies is prompting government action to keep the lights on.
“In another blow for consumers already struggling with surging costs, power prices in Germany jumped to a record as fears about looming gas shortages may mean the government needs to limit output from plants burning the fuel.”
“Amid energy crisis, E.U. says gas, nuclear can sometimes be ‘green’.
“European lawmakers voted Wednesday to move ahead with a plan to label some nuclear and natural gas power as “green” energy, a closely watched decision that could shape climate policy for years to come.” …Many fear the bloc is getting weak-kneed when it comes to climate goals.”
“ECB tells banks to factor in recession in shareholder payouts.
“Euro zone banks should factor in the risk of a recession when calculating how much capital they can pay out to shareholders, the European Central Bank’s top supervisor Andrea Enria said on Thursday.”
“Argentina: Protests planned in multiple locations of the city and province of Buenos Aires.
“Civic groups, including members of Unidad Piquetera, intend to protest across various locations in the city of Buenos Aires and surrounding areas of the Buenos Aires Province, July 7. The activists are demanding jobs and denouncing poor economic conditions.”
“Brazil at risk of unrest more severe than Jan 6 U.S. riots, warns elections chief…
“Bolsonaro has cast doubts on the voting system, without evidence, going as far as threatening to reject an unfavorable outcome in the elections. read more. “We may experience an episode even more severe than the January 6 (attack) on the Capitol,” Fachin said in a presentation at the Wilson Center in Washington.”
“Eleven days without water — load shedding in Eastern Cape [South Africa] wrecks Middelburg borehole pumps.
“After close to two weeks of water outages caused by a load shedding-related burnout of borehole pumps, the Midros community in Middelburg began getting water out of their taps on Wednesday — 11 days after a bout of nationwide power cuts.”
“Zimbabwe will start issuing gold coins as legal tender in late July, its central bank has said, as the country battles to control runaway inflation that has considerably weakened the local currency.
“The inflation rate more than doubled last month to 191%, stoking memories of the hyperinflation of the 2000s that saw the Zimbabwean dollar redenominated three times before being effectively abandoned in 2009.”
“Fuel shortages at pump stations in Ethiopia worsened this week, with motorists in the capital Addis Ababa waiting as long as eight hours to refill.
“The pain is poised to bite harder after the government on Tuesday announced a 38% increase in the price of diesel as it plans to stop subsidizing fuel. Commuters were seen waiting for hours before they could get rides.”
“Tunisia’s Twin Democracy and Economic Crises Push it to the Brink.
“Tunisia faces a dire economic predicament. Public sector spending (largely due to pensions, salaries and government subsidies) consumes the state’s budget. According to the World Bank, public debt as of 2020 was 70 percent above GDP, current debt levels could be much higher…”
“A warning from Turkey – this is what hyperinflation looks like…
“Turks are stuck in Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s topsy-turvy world where official statistics are discredited, religion is driving central bank policy and everyone from egg producers to foreign forces are blamed for the highest inflation in decades.”
“Protesters march through Beirut against Lebanon price surges [and attempt] to break into the headquarters of MTC Touch, one of the two state-contracted telecoms companies.
“The demonstrations, in which a handful of protesters clashed with security forces, came days after a major jump in the cost of phone and internet services…”
“India’s export curbs, tax hike to exacerbate global diesel, gasoline shortage.
“India’s latest measures aimed at boosting domestic oil supplies could reduce its diesel and gasoline exports in the second half of the year, keeping global supplies tight and underpinning prices, traders and analysts said.”
“Fueling Nepal’s economic crisis. As finance minister resigns, Nepal is trapped in an economic-energy crunch…
“There are many indications that the crisis is deepening. The clearest yet was Nepal Oil Corporation asking the government this week to implement 10 austerity measures to reduce petroleum consumption, including by reimposing the two-day weekend, odd-even traffic rule, quota at filling stations, discouraging vehicle use and a ban on import of petrol and diesel vehicles.”
“Sri Lanka’s economic crisis is driving people to flee the country in desperation…
“With no signs of the crisis letting up, and no bailout from the IMF in sight, many Sri Lankan refugees are traveling illegally by boats to nearby countries like India and Australia in a desperate bid to escape the unfolding disaster.”
“One-Tenth of the World Is Hungry, and War Risks Worsening the Crisis…
“The number of undernourished people rose by about 6% to roughly 768 million last year, an annual report by United Nations agencies shows… Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is adding to the challenges ahead…
“U.S. crypto lender Voyager Digital said on Wednesday it had filed for bankruptcy, becoming another casualty of a dramatic fall in prices that has shaken the cryptocurrency sector…
“In its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing on Tuesday, Voyager – based in New Jersey but listed in Toronto – estimated that it had more than 100,000 creditors and somewhere between $1 billion and $10 billion in assets, and liabilities worth the same value.”
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is a huge help, especially as the cost of living crisis is biting here in the UK.
“Many major economies will enter recessions over the next 12 months amid tightening government policies and rising living costs, pushing the global economy into a synchronized growth slowdown, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.
“The brokerage expects the euro zone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada to fall into recession along with the US, Rob Subbaraman and Si Ying Toh at Nomura said in a research note.”
“Metals melt down as recession fears overwhelm supply woes… Industrial metals have gone from boom to bust in the space of only three months…
“Investor positioning across the industrial metals has flipped from long to short over the last few weeks, with systematic funds responding to chart breakdowns and downside price momentum by increasing bear bets.”
“The global energy crisis just got even worse… Natural Gas Soars 700%, Becoming Driving Force in the New Cold War.
“Shortages of the fuel are rippling throughout the global economy, threatening recessions and a further wave of inflation… In short, natural gas now rivals oil as the fuel that shapes geopolitics. And there isn’t enough of it to go around.”
“Intensive industrial energy users to warn UK ministers over gas rationing.
“Some of Britain’s largest industrial users of energy will warn ministers on Wednesday that sections of industry are at risk of closure this winter if there is a severe gas shortage and emergency measures to curb usage are introduced.”
“A UK campaign is calling for 1 million households to pledge that they will stop paying energy bills from October 1, in protest against price increases amid the cost of living crisis.
“The group, run by several anonymous activists, launched its Don’t Pay UK campaign in mid-June and, within a week, has already accrued over 4,000 people who have signed up to support the initiative.”
“[UK] Fuel protesters threaten to block oil refineries next after day of disruption on the roads.
“Protest organisers – who are demanding a fairer price for petrol, including a cut on fuel duty from the Government – warned that this is just the beginning of the action. Many raised the prospect of a repeat of the oil refinery blockades that brought Britain to a standstill in 2000…”
“Dutch farmers block entrances to supermarket warehouses.
“Dutch farmers angry at government plans to slash emissions are using tractors and trucks to blockade supermarket distribution centers, the latest actions in a summer of discontent in the country’s lucrative agricultural sector.”
“Germany’s second-largest city [Hamburg] is preparing to ration hot water as the Russia energy crisis escalates…
““We are in a much worse crisis than most people realize,” Jens Kerstan said in a separate interview with the Hamburger Abendblatt on Sunday. He urged people to take shorter showers, avoid full baths, and install modern thermostats and water-saving shower heads.”
“The German government has drafted a law that allows it to take stakes in companies crippled by the soaring cost of imported gasas tensions with Russia threaten to plunge the country’s power sector into crisis.
“The law, which could be passed by the German parliament as early as this week, would clear a path for the government to bail out Uniper, the largest importer of Russian gas into Germany.”
“Germany warns of ‘historic challenge’ as monthly trade slides into deficit… for the first time since 1991 as import costs soar.
““Germany’s trade surplus has now evaporated, thanks mainly to soaring imports, offsetting otherwise decent momentum in exports,” said Claus Vistesen, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, adding that he expected Germany to continue running a trade deficit over the summer.”
“Germany’s Union Head Warns of Collapse of Entire Industries.
““Because of the gas bottlenecks, entire industries are in danger of permanently collapsing: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry,” said Yasmin Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions (DGB), in an interview with the newspaper Bild am Sonntag.”
“Eurozone facing recession as investor morale plummets… Recession in the Eurozone is now “inevitable”, a closely-watched survey suggested on Monday, after war in Ukraine and the growing energy crisis caused investor morale to slump.
“The July Sentix Economic Index was -26.4, a sharp fall on June’s -15.8 and the lowest since May 2020. It was also well below consensus, for -19.9.”
“Europe power prices hit new high in wake of Russian gas supply cuts.
“European electricity prices have reached the highest sustained level on record, as Russia’s cuts to the continent’s gas supplies ripple through energy networks and threaten to cause lasting pain for industry and households.”
“Coal Imports Pour Into Energy-Starved Europe From Around Globe…
“Coal poured into the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam region — a huge transport hub for energy and commodities — in the first half of this year, with imports surging 35% to 26.9 million tons compared with the same period last year, according to Kpler.”
“Two more Australian building firms suddenly collapse as an unprecedented crisis rocks the industry – with work stopped on hundreds of projects…
“Matthew Mackey, the Executive Director at engineering giant Arcadis, said the government need to get more involved or face a total collapse of the residential construction industry.”
“New Zealand housing indicators signal price crash.
“The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) has released its July survey of licensed real estate agents, which is wall-to-wall bearish and points to further heavy price falls for the nation’s housing market. Below are key indicators presented in the survey.”
“Missed meals and constant stress: New Zealand’s cost-of-living crisis hits home…
“…people are trying to stretch grocery budgets further, with some going to extraordinary lengths – New Zealand shoppers have ordered groceries from Australia to save money, others have turned to foraging and, more recently, some have reportedly resorted to eating garden snails and using a water spray bottle instead of toilet paper to cut down on costs.”
“The slump in the Japanese yen, the war in Ukraine and a heatwave in Tokyo are pushing the world’s third-biggest economy toward a full-blown energy crisis…
“Japan imports about 90% of its energy, mostly priced in dollars, and costs were already soaring from a jump in global oil, gas and coal prices, even before the yen fell to its lowest level in two decades.”
“China’s real estate crisis deepens as big Shanghai developer defaults…
“Shanghai-based Shimao Group failed to pay the interest and principal on a $1 billion bond due Sunday, according to a company filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange. The bond had no grace period for the principal, according to its offering document.”
“Argentina crisis deepens as finance minister quits.
“Argentina has been plunged into further crisis after finance minister Martín Guzmán quit suddenly amid a split within the ruling Peronist coalition, unnerving investors already concerned about spiralling inflation and dire public finances.”
“Venezuela’s Largest Oil Refinery Halts Production Amid Blackout…
“Unless the problem is fixed quickly, it could become quite grave as Amuay is the only refinery at the Paraguana complex that produces gasoline, and Venezuela has been in the grips of regular gasoline shortages because of U.S. sanctions for years now.”
“UN secretary general urges calm in Libya as protests spread…
““The secretary general is following with concern the demonstrations that were held in several cities in Libya, including Tripoli, Tobruk and Benghazi,” the office of Guterres said in a statement. The UN chief called on protesters “to avoid acts of violence and on the security forces to exercise utmost restraint”.”
“Amidst dire fuel shortage, Addis Abeba [Ethiopia] trade bureau confiscates eight fuel trucks for failing to deliver.
“The Addis Abeba City Trade Bureau said it has confiscated eight trucks loaded with fuel and belonging to fuel stations for allegedly failing to to allow the fuel trucks to enter Addis Abeba city. The news comes in the midst of dire fuel shortage in the city that saw long queues for fuel…”
“Mozambique hit by protests against rising fuel prices.
“Thousands of people took to the streets of Maputo, Mozambique’s capital, on Monday to protest against another rise in fuel prices in the Southern African country… Monday’s protests in Maputo paralyzed public transport as vehicles were barred from operating and major roads within the capital were barricaded by the demonstrators.”
“South African state power utility Eskom said on Sunday it would extend [stage 6] daily power cuts all through next week as generation capacity shortage continues…
“‘Stage 6’ is a level of power cut on an eight level system which essentially means Eskom will have to take off almost 6000 megawatts (MW) of capacity from the grid, and based on other levels, South Africans could see between six and eight hours of power cut in a day.”
“Turkey’s official inflation rate increased to almost 80% last month – the highest in 24 years – as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s unconventional economic policies continued to drive up the cost of living…
“However, opposition parties and economists said recent hikes in oil and gas prices meant the real rate of inflation was almost double the official figure.”
“Uzbekistan imposes regional state of emergency after deadly unrest…
“On Saturday, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev dropped plans to amend articles of the constitution concerning Karakalpakstan’s autonomy and its right to secede. He also declared a month-long state of emergency in the north-western province.”
“Gas and power outages: 400 textile mills facing closure in Punjab [Pakistan]…
““It is not possible for us to run textile mills on pricey diesel,” said APTMA “And if the closure continues, the textile exports will witness $1 billion decrease.” The power and gas outages for industries has already resulted in shutting down several textile mills, and led to the termination of thousands of daily-wage workers.”
“Blackouts return as Bangladesh feels first stirrings of energy crisis.
“On Sunday, State Minister for Power, Energy Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid took to social media to express his regret over recent disruptions in the country’s power supply. In a status on his verified Facebook account, he wrote, “Power generation is being hampered due a shortage of gas. This is disrupting power in many places.””
“With no fuel and no cash, Sri Lanka grinds to a halt.
“The cash-strapped nation on Sunday extended school closures because there is not enough fuel for teachers and parents to get children to classrooms, with most pumping stations being without fuel for days… Local media reported there had been sporadic clashes outside fuel stations…”
“Coinbase-backed Vauld halts withdrawals as crypto credit crisis intensifies…
“The company, which offered clients annualised returns of up to 40 per cent to lend out their crypto tokens, said on Monday clients had yanked almost $200mn from its platform in the past three weeks as high-profile failures ricochet through the industry.”
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is a huge help, especially as the cost of living crisis is biting here in the UK.
“Global markets closed out their most bruising first half of a year in [over five] decades, leaving investors bracing for the prospect of further losses.
“Accelerating inflation and rising interest rates fuelled a months-long rout that left few markets unscathed. The S&P 500 fell 21% through Thursday, suffering its worst first half of a year since 1970…
“Stocks and bonds in emerging markets tumbled, hurt by slowing growth. And cryptocurrencies came crashing down, saddling individual investors and hedge funds alike with steep losses.”
“Factory data dampen global hopes for ‘soft landing’.
“Global manufacturing struggled in June as higher prices and a darker economic outlook left consumers wary of making purchases, while China’s strict COVID-19 lockdowns and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to supply chain disruptions, surveys showed.”
“Corporate fundraisings slide 25% during market rout of 2022.
“The chill in capital markets underscores a powerful shift from exuberance to trepidation this year as central banks aggressively tighten monetary policy to temper persistently hot inflation… The three months between April to June represented an “Oh my God” quarter, according to Alex Veroude, chief investment office for fixed income at $1tn asset manager Insight Investment.”
“Copper trades below $8,000 a tonne as recession fears take hold.World’s most important industrial metal had struck a record high above $10,600 earlier this year…
“Widely regarded as a gauge of economic activity because of its use in everything from household appliances to electric vehicles, the metal fell as much 3 per cent to $7,959 a tonne, leaving it on course for its fourth consecutive weekly decline.”
“Higher food prices, global shortages feared as crop fertilizer prices soar…
“If fertilizer prices persist, food shortages will undoubtedly follow as farmers cut back to save money, Jason Grant said. “The larger issue is that if we cut back on fertilizer, that impacts yield, that reduces supply available for key staple grains and food products,” he said.”
“Higher costs across the economy are changing consumer behavior… Consumers are especially pulling back for products whose prices have risen most rapidly, like gasoline. In the first full week of June, gasoline sales by volume at U.S. stations were down about 8.2% compared with the same week last year…”
“California may need to tap fossil fuel-powered generation capacity to avoid blackouts this summer, the AP has reported, citing a proposal signed this week by Governor Gavin Newsom…
“The measure is a short-term one, however, as the gas-fired plants are set to close next year. Diesel generators will also be killed as a source of energy in California beginning next year.”
“Tight Gasoline Supplies Send US Fuelmakers into Maximum Output Mode. Summer heat, high run rates elevate the risk of a refinery breakdown as the US wrestles with high gasoline prices…
““Running hard increases general stress on a unit, increasing the risk of an unplanned outage,” said Robert Campbell, head of oil products research at London consultancy Energy Aspects Ltd.”
“Cost-of-living Ireland: Leo Varadkar warns crisis could go on for ‘years’…
“The Fine Gael leader said: “The cost of living crisis is happening right here, right now. It’ll happen all the way through to the Budget and it will continue after the Budget. “That is truth of it. We are facing a global inflation crises and it won’t end because of any budget whether it is an emergency budget before the autumn or whether it is one in autumn.”
“A “tired” and “scared” mother [UK] has said she had to sell her daughter’s bike to pay for food and bills amid the spiralling cost of living crisis.
“As record levels of UK inflation wreak havoc on household finances, Lowri told ITV News the countless sacrifices she has to make are “soul-destroying”. She is among three women who filmed video diaries for ITV News, in which they revealed their families’ everyday struggles and fears.”
“Downing Street is exploring the idea of trying to tackle the housing crisis with ultra-long mortgages of up to 50 years that could pass between generations, allowing more people to build up equity rather than pay rent.
“Mortgage experts said the idea could bring some benefits but flagged problems, including the potential to saddle children with debt, and the fact it would not tackle the fundamental issue of housing supply.”
“Angry Dutch farmers brought their cows to parliament, threatening to slaughter them in protest of the government’s nitrogen reduction targets.
“The country’s goal to halve nitrogen output by 2030 will force some Dutch farmers out of business, according to a government plan published earlier this month.”
“Inflation across the eurozone has soared to a fresh record of 8.6% in June as Russia’s war in Ukraine adds to the cost of living crisis.
“Figures from the EU statistics agency Eurostat showed consumer price inflation increased from 8.1% in May, reaching the highest level since relevant records began in 1997, two years before the euro was launched.”
“Italy issues bonds at highest borrowing costs since wake of eurozone debt crisis.
“Italy has paid the highest borrowing costs on its debt since the wake of the eurozone debt crisis, after the European Central Bank’s decision to withdraw stimulus measures sparked a sell-off in the bloc’s bond markets.”
“European Gas Has Third Weekly Rise as Supply Worries Deepen. Freeport LNG partial restart pushed back further to October…
““The extension of the outage yet again at Freeport will be a key blow for Europe, as securing supply for the winter” will be much harder, said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at ICIS in London. “As the outage length edges toward winter there will be increased concern about further extensions just as European demand begins to firm.””
“Germany Risks ‘Imminent’ Recession on Gas Cutoff, Deutsche Bank Says…
“European economies are facing a major new shock from slowing deliveries of Russian natural gas… “What is unfolding in Europe in recent days is a fresh big negative supply shock,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote, citing a 60% fall in gas flows via the Nord Stream pipeline earlier this month.”
“Germany in bailout talks with Uniper amid gas crisis.
“Germany’s Uniper (UN01.DE) is in talks about a possible government bailout as the financial fallout from dwindling supplies of Russian gas reverberates across Europe, sending shares in the energy company sliding.”
“A German oil refinery will halt shipments of diesel—the lifeblood of the economy—and heating oil to customers starting tomorrow, according to Bloomberg sources.
“German oil refinery Bayernoil GmbH said it would halt deliveries for several days after suffering a lightning strike. The EU already has several refinery outages to contend with this month…”
“Swiss gear up for hard times with bulked up food reserves.
“Switzerland wants to expand its emergency food reserves to make sure the neutral country is not hit by shortages of coffee, grain and sugar caused by over-extended supply chains, climate change and conflicts like Ukraine.”
“‘As bad as it was during lockdown’: NSW [Australia] food banks battle to keep up with demand…
“”The expenses are just too much now, especially for groceries. Any unexpected expenses … would be very difficult. “I can’t imagine surviving without the food deliveries … We had to cut out meat and fish, we can only buy the essentials…””
“Amid heat-wave power crunch, Japan brings back rusty gas plants.
“Japan is already sweating out a dire power crunch as it heads into a boiling summer, introducing measures such as restarting retired gas plants to save power in order to shore up its scanty electricity supply.”
“Climate graphic of the week: Asia-Pacific remains stuck on coal for half its power needs.
“Growth in the region fuelled 6 per cent rise in global use of the dirtiest fossil fuel in 2021… This is despite the pledge from almost 200 countries at the UN COP26 summit in November to “phase-down” the use of coal to tackle climate change.”
“Balochistan farmers [Pakistan] call hours of power cuts ‘economic murder of farmers’
“Farmers of Balochistan announced the closure of the Quetta-Karachi highway on July 4 against prolonged load shedding in the province by Quetta Electric Supply Company (QESCO) and termed the unannounced power cuts the “economic murder of farmers”, reported local media outlet.”
“The Iranian Teachers’ Trade Organization led its latest in a long series of nationwide protests against the country’s clerical regime in late June.
“On the surface, the protests were demanding salary increases, still below the poverty line, as well as better working conditions. But on a deeper level, these and other protests over the state of the economy represent a clear challenge to the entire ruling system, one the majority of Iranians hold responsible for their hardships.”
“Turkey mulls capital controls amid currency crisis and record inflation.
“As President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has refused to allow interest rate rises, Turkey steps toward capital controls to support its national currency, the lira. Analysts say an economic slowdown may be on the way.”
“Political and banking deadlock may plunge Lebanon deeper into crisis.
“Lebanon’s untamed financial crisis is gathering new menace as it heads into a fourth year, with political paralysis dampening hope of reforms that could unlock foreign support and stave off social turmoil… The emergency gripping the small country squeezed between Syria and Israel could snowball in the autumn…”
“Fearing a collapse: Palestinian refugees and UNRWA’s worsening financial crisis.
“Fears are now growing that UNRWA may be ultimately dismantled. Were that to happen, it would dramatically worsen an already dire situation, leaving Palestinian refugees bereft of basic services and lacking protection of their fundamental human rights, and contributing to humanitarian crises across the region.”
“Protesters storm Libya’s parliament building amid political deadlock, power cuts.
“Several television channels said that protesters had managed to penetrate the building and committed acts of vandalism, while media outlets showed images of thick columns of black smoke coming from its perimeter as angry young protesters burned tyres.”
“Crisis-hit Ghana changes its mind and turns to IMF for help.
“Ghana, one of West Africa’s largest economies, will hold formal talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a support package, the government said on Friday, after hundreds took to the streets to protest against mounting hardship.”
“Growthpoint Properties Ltd., South Africa’s largest real estate investment trust, said its struggling to keep up with the demand for diesel to operate generators at some of its buildings amid power cuts…
““Our resources are stretched to their limits. Our diesel providers have exhausted their diesel supply,” the company told clients in a letter dated Tuesday. “We kindly request that you make your own contingency plans to secure the integrity of your business and IT infrastructure.””
“A year after the riots, South Africa is a tinderbox waiting to be lit.
“Next week will mark a year since rioters tore through parts of KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, looting and vandalising stores and rattling business confidence in their wake. More than 300 people died and about R50-billion was wiped off the country’s economy.”
“‘Perfect storm’ of crises is widening global inequality, says UN chief.
“Humanity is facing a “perfect storm” of crises that is widening inequality between the north and south, the UN secretary general has warned. The divide is not only “morally unacceptable” but dangerous, further threatening peace and security in a conflicted world.”
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with a ‘Climate’ thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is a huge help, especially as the cost of living crisis is biting here in the UK.
“As far as I know, your work is unique in pulling together stories from all over the world. Very sobering but a better and more complete view. Terrific and necessary work. Thank you!” – Simon
“With the inundation of so much depressing news, Justin Panopticon presents it in a succinct format that one can quickly go thru and see the big picture of climate and economics/politics to stay current and if a particle topic is of interest one can delve into the details… I try never to miss any of his posts…I am a Patreon of his work.”
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About This Site
Weekday updates on both climate change and the global economy. Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.
“Today’s energy crisis will probably become worse than the 1970s oil shock… Five factors could create higher prices and political instability across the world…
“Gasoline surge pushes up costs for chemicals used in essential goods.
“Soaring fuel prices hit oil demand in developed countries, IEA says.
“IMF Chief Warns of Debt Crisis as Higher Rates Follow Covid, War…
“Global recession risk rising as economic outlook ‘darkens significantly’, IMF says…
“Soaring gas and food prices catapult US inflation to 40-year-high.
“Truckers Protest California Gig-Work Law at Three Key Ports.
“Euro dips below parity against dollar for first time since 2002…
“Russian energy company Gazprom appeared to cast doubt Wednesday on the prospects of quickly restoring the flow of natural gas to full capacity through a major pipeline to Western Europe…
“Germany Will Stop Buying Russian Coal On August 1, Oil On December 31…
“Germans could switch to wood this winter to heat their homes as Russia withholds natural gas, Deutsche Bank says…
“German investor sentiment collapsed in July, as fears that Germany could be plunged into recession continue to grow.
“Sudden tax reform sparks protests in Hungary.
“Hungary declares ‘energy emergency’ over threat of fuel shortages…
“Can France ensure its energy security this winter?
“A disaster prevention expert suggests people in Japan prepare rechargeable batteries, frozen gel packs and ice in case of blackouts during a severe heat wave.
“China’s Heatwave Turns Deadly as Industrial Power Cuts Begin.
“China’s Henan bank scandal not just a financial crisis, it may be a lasting political calamity: analysts.
“More Chinese Homebuyers Refuse to Pay Mortgage Loans Amid Contagion Fears.
“Argentine farm groups strike to protest government policies.
“Panama protests continue despite fuel and food price cuts.
“Famine feared if inflation in Mexico is not controlled, economist says.
“Week of gang battles kills dozens, deepens fuel crisis in Haiti.
“Nigeria Needs Higher Revenue to Avert Debt Distress, DMO Says.
“Ghana inflation scales new peak as it seeks IMF bailout.
“Cameroon Orders Investment in Wheat Production to Quell Protests Sparked by Shortages.
“Sub-Saharan Africa Facing Severe Food Shortage…
“Libyans at boiling point amid summer power cuts…
“Sri Lanka crisis: Six-mile daily walk for food as demand for free meals soars and people struggle to survive…
“Sri Lanka’s Bailout Slips Further Away as Nation Misses a Leader…
“Sri Lanka’s economic collapse ringing ‘alarm bells’ for emerging markets: Expert…
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