Many thanks to my friend Barry Smiler for being October’s sponsor. Do take a look at his climate site, which nicely complements mine. He recently added some nifty enhancements to his Research page. And for your climate listening pleasure, he suggests this little song.
“China Halts October Fuel Exports as Global Diesel Crunch Deepens.
“China’s major refiners have suspended most refined fuel exports for October as Beijing prioritizes domestic supply security, removing another source of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel from an already severely constrained global market.”
“President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia will not supply its diesel to global energy markets until sanctions against Moscow are lifted.
“Speaking at the Valdai Forum of international Russia experts in Moscow, Putin said that Ukraine had “partially achieved its objectives” with strikes on Russian oil refineries that he said had cost Russia 1% of its gross domestic product.”
https://www.aol.co.uk/articles/putin-says-russia-wont-supply-173402000.html
“Ukraine persists with Russian oil refinery strikes in defiance of Trump.
“Kyiv struck an oil facility in Russia’s southern Samara region overnight, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Thursday… Trump has urged Zelenskyy in a private phone call to halt attacks on Russian refineries and repeatedly suggested in public that Ukraine’s strikes are to blame for the squeeze on global fuel supplies.”
“Britain is in talks with European allies over releasing emergency diesel stockpiles after Donald Trump threatened to cut off US supplies of the fuel.
“Ministers held calls with counterparts from the European Commission (EC), Germany, France, Italy and Ireland on Thursday… The warning marks an escalation of pressure on Europe as Trump considers a potential wider ban to help lower domestic fuel prices before the US midterm elections in November.”
“Third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops head to Mideast as Trump weighs new Iran strikes…
“The troop movement, which includes a third aircraft carrier, underscores the rapidly evolving dynamic of Trump’s war against Iran as he ponders his next move, with midterm elections in the United States looming large and new signs that the nature of the conflict may be becoming more complex.”
“Three Tankers Struck by Unknown Projectiles in Strait of Hormuz…
“Three Liberia-flagged tankers with their transponders switched off were transiting the Strait on Tuesday and Wednesday when they were hit by projectiles, shipping intelligence firm Marisks says, as carried by Reuters on Thursday.”
“US signs $24.4bn contract to ramp up missile production as Iran conflict drains stockpiles.
“The US Defense Department on Thursday announced the award of a $24.4 billion contract for Raytheon, an RTX unit, to accelerate production of SM-6 missiles as Washington works to replace the large amount of munitions expended during the Iran war.”
“US borrowing costs hit 24-year high as global bond sell-off intensifies.
“The global bond sell-off intensified on Thursday, driving 10-year US government borrowing costs to their highest level in 24 years in a frantic day’s trading… In the UK, where surging borrowing costs are increasing the pressure on the chancellor, John Healey, before his first budget later this month, the yield on 30-year bonds hit 6% for the first time since 1998.”
“The AI boom is pushing bond yields higher in ways that go beyond corporate borrowing, ING says.
“The bank estimates roughly 70% of AI’s impact on long-dated yields stems from expectations that the technology will boost productivity and long-run economic growth… Those expectations can push up real bond yields even before productivity gains become visible in economic data, they wrote.”
“KKR, a leading U.S. investment firm, warns about the growing pile of AI debt…
““Diversification is harder than it looks when the same short list of counterparties sit behind the equity book, the debt book, and increasingly the infrastructure supporting both,” they wrote. “Power, chips, cooling, land, leases and financing often route back to the same handful of economic actors.”“
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-kkr-warns-about-the-growing-pile-of-ai-debt/
“Hedge Fund’s Near Collapse Lays Bare Risks of Borrowing to Bet on A.I.
“A meltdown at Situational Awareness, an A.I.-focused investment firm, is raising tough questions about the Wall Street banks that lent billions to the upstart firm… The amount of borrowed money, or what’s known as leverage, in the stock market has never been larger, or grown faster.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/30/business/situational-awareness-stock-market-leverage.html
“Trump’s trade rep sounds pessimistic about deal with Canada, saying issues are ‘quite difficult to resolve’.
“U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says he regularly speaks with his Canadian counterpart, but the two sides have reached an impasse on some trade irritants and there’s no sign of a resolution any time soon.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-trade-rep-pessimistic-about-canada-deal-9.7366028
“Carney pitches oil pipeline as a response to US-Canada trade war.
“Mark Carney has announced that Canada will fast-track the approval process for a 1,250km (775 mile) oil pipeline project to the Pacific coast… “A pipeline to the west coast is part of our mission to transform our economy, to double our non-US exports over the next decade,” he said on Thursday.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm7505q2v2pqo
“The Bank of England has sounded the alarm over the risk of surging AI and government debts triggering a financial crisis.
“It warned on Wednesday that threats to the UK finance system had grown over the past few months. Higher borrowing costs from the Iran war had increased weaknesses in private credit, AI and sovereign debt markets.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/09/30/bank-of-england-warns-of-looming-debt-crisis/
“Edinburgh joins UK universities heading for strikes as cuts spread through entire sector.
“Welcome classes for students at the University of Edinburgh this year did not focus on the lectures, seminars and essays expected. Instead, students were told about how their education was going to fit in around the strikes planned for this year, which for many will in effect wipe out a term of teaching.”
“Teacher doused in petrol and schools set on fire as student riots in France dramatically escalate…
“More than 600 people have been arrested in the widespread violence, which spread rapidly after starting as largely peaceful protests against the state of the education system, calling for better resources, building renovations, and good learning conditions.”
“France Is Ground Zero in the Global Bond Rout.
“The French government aims to cut tens of billions of euros in spending next year as it seeks to calm investor worries that have driven the country’s borrowing costs to their highest levels in decades. Whether the government manages to implement the planned cuts, however, is the question that has markets on edge.”
https://www.wsj.com/finance/france-is-ground-zero-in-the-global-bond-rout-4b743eb2
“Sky-high energy costs fuel inflation pain across Europe.
“Inflation rose far quicker than expected in some of the eurozone’s biggest economies in September, as energy costs soared because of the Middle East war, official data showed Wednesday, boosting expectations for further interest rate hikes. Energy inflation appears to have surprised on the upside in all countries…”
“Europe braces for ‘severe hybrid attacks’ from Russia, says Friedrich Merz.
“Speaking on 1 October 2026 at a ceremony awarding the 2026 Westphalian Peace Prize to NATO, Merz stated that Germany and its allies are anticipating extensive acts of sabotage, cyberattacks, espionage, and drone operations. He asserted that any such provocations would meet a “quick and very clear” European response.”
https://www.ft.com/content/04992c30-21da-46f3-8b95-ca82b2791521
“In apparent reversal, Trump says he’s sending 5,000 troops to Poland…
“”Based on the successful Election of the now President of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, who I was proud to Endorse, and our relationship with him, I am pleased to announce that the United States will be sending an additional 5,000 Troops to Poland,” Trump said in the post.”
https://abcnews.com/Politics/apparent-reversal-trump-sending-5000-troops-poland/story
“Estonia has banned the transit of Russian and Belarusian grain through its territory. The decision was announced on October 1 by Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna.
“The ban comes as Russian exporters seek to redirect grain flows toward the Baltic amid disruptions to traditional Black Sea routes. Estonia had already warned carriers in September not to plan Russian grain transit through its territory and ports.”
https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/estonia-bans-transit-of-russian-and-belarusian-grain/
“Ukraine war briefing: Russia pounds power grid with seven killed in biggest energy attack in months…
“The strikes on Wednesday, in which Ukrainian officials said seven people were killed, came after days of intensifying drone barrages primarily on the capital, a prelude to what many Ukrainians expect to be a winter of attacks intended to plunge cities into cold and darkness while Ukraine is short of air defences.”
“Ukraine rolls out drone-stopping razor fence to thwart attacks.
“Most of the drones being used by Russia in the war with Ukraine are controlled by cables several tens of kilometres long. A new defensive tool cuts the cables to stop the drones… Radio-frequency jamming stops most small drones. In response, drone designers have begun using fibre-optic cable instead of radio to communicate with the crafts. The fibre-optic cable unspools as the drone flies.”
“Russia to Sharply Increase War Spending and Cut Social Programs.
“Both sides are finding it increasingly difficult to finance the conflict in Ukraine… Russia intends to spend more than $200 billion on its military in 2027, an increase of more than a quarter from the sum the last budget initially provided for 2026. The new figure represents more than a third of overall federal spending planned next year.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/01/world/europe/russia-war-budget.html
“Seoul warns ‘further action’ if Ukraine does not apologise over prisoner-of-war row.
“South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung has threatened to take unspecified “further action” if Ukraine does not issue a public apology for revealing that two North Korean prisoners of war had been sent to the South.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm1dld14weero
“Japan’s debt warning for Korea as interest rates rise…
“Japan long enjoyed a world in which borrowing cost almost nothing. Monetary easing held rates down, allowing the government to expand spending. When rates rise, however, government debt reveals its true cost. The bill is now arriving.”
“Japanese companies cut China presence to record low…
“Japanese companies are accelerating their retreat from mainland China as weaker Chinese economic momentum, U.S. tariffs and strained Tokyo-Beijing relations reshape corporate strategy. The pullback… points to a broader reordering of regional manufacturing and investment flows.”
https://tradersunion.com/news/financial-news/show/3619473-japanese-companies-cut-china-presence/
“Philippines sends largest ship, aircraft to drive away Chinese vessel in waters near Taiwan.
“The Philippines’ coast guard said on Thursday that it has deployed its largest vessel and an aircraft to challenge a Chinese research ship operating off northern Batanes province near Taiwan, adding that a Chinese coast guard vessel had also moved in.”
“Modi’s India takes on Trump more openly, from ‘terrorism’ to tariffs.
“…after months of tensions, New Delhi is adopting a more openly critical tone towards Washington to address the volatility and uncertainty that President Donald Trump brings to the White House. The changing tune in New Delhi also comes at a critical time for Prime Minister Narendra Modi…”
“Pakistan launches deadly air strikes on Afghanistan…
“Zabihullah Mujahid, the chief spokesman of the Afghan Taliban, said the strikes hit homes in the Kunar and Helmand provinces bordering Pakistan. Women and children are among the dead, he said in an X post. “We condemn this act as an aggression and crime in violation of all accepted principles,” he said.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw4grg92lmr5o
“US sanctions target Iran’s auto, rail sectors after blockade chokes shipping lanes.
“The Trump administration on Thursday imposed fresh sanctions on Iran, targeting its rail and automotive conglomerates and international suppliers to the sectors, the Treasury Department said, in the latest US push to isolate Tehran economically.”
“Iran’s supreme leader sends gift to Hezbollah militants.
“Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has sent a headscarf as a gift to Hezbollah militants on the front lines along the Litani River, where they are battling the Israeli army, Iranian media reported on Thursday.”
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-10-01/news-1QTj3UF2Izm/p.html
“Syria denies officials held ‘secret’ talks with Hezbollah in Turkiye.
“Reuters news agency said that Syrian officials and the Iran-aligned group met secretly in September. Reuters said they spoke to six sources, including two Syrian officials, a United States official and a senior Lebanese security source close to Hezbollah.”
“Turkey-Greece cable dispute hits impasse as Ankara insists on prior coordination…
“A dispute between Turkey and Greece over a planned undersea power cable project linking Greece, Cyprus and Israel is hardening into a stalemate, as Ankara said Thursday that it would not allow work to proceed in areas where it claims seabed rights without prior coordination.”
“How a foul smell spreading across Gaza revives scrutiny of Israeli ‘skunk’ spray.
“Local journalists said small “bubbles” containing a malodorous substance had fallen in Gaza City’s Tuffah and Daraj neighborhoods. Similar accounts soon emerged elsewhere in Gaza… They described an overpowering, sewage-like stench that drifted into crowded displacement camps and left some people struggling to breathe.”
“Saudi-led coalition accuses Houthis of striking Medina power station.
“Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis struck an electricity distribution station supplying the Prophet’s Mosque in Saudi Arabia’s holy city of Medina, the Saudi-led coalition said Thursday, drawing condemnation across the Muslim world. The Houthis denied involvement…”
“After Red Sea losses, Yemen’s government forces hold the line…
“Still, there are few signs that the Saudi-backed government intends to begin a serious counteroffensive against the Houthis in the near future, despite the head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council Rashad al-Alimi calling for a general mobilisation against the rebels on September 25.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/1/after-red-sea-losses-yemens-government-forces-hold-the-line
“Ethiopia and Eritrea cut diplomatic ties as northern conflict escalates.
“On Thursday, Ethiopia announced that it was closing its embassy in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, and ordered 10 Eritrean diplomats to leave the country within 48 hours, accusing them of activities that threatened national security. Eritrea responded by cutting diplomatic relations…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crpd0d0jl0y0o
“Somali families face renewed violence amid worsening hunger crisis…
“Children have been killed and injured in fresh fighting in Baidoa, in Somalia’s South West State, where families were already facing severe hunger and other overlapping crises. A health facility has also been damaged, according to the UN Children’s Fund, UNICEF, and other humanitarian agencies.”
https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/09/1168495
“The battle for Kordofan: The corridor linking Sudan’s east and west.
“Fighting in Sudan’s Kordofan region has intensified since late 2025, turning it into one of the main battlegrounds in the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), now in its fourth year.”
“Ebola response faces setback as transit centre burns down in DR Congo camp.
“The enormous challenge of halting the spread of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) just became even harder after a key transit centre for patients requiring treatment burned down in Ituri province. The camp had provided shelter for some 19,000 people fleeing violence in the resource-rich east of the country, close to the border with Rwanda.”
https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/10/1168499
“Cameroon to Reinforce Lake Chad Security Response Amid Renewed Boko Haram Threat.
“The most significant operational announcement was the planned creation of BIR Lake Chad, a new Rapid Intervention Battalion formation intended to strengthen Cameroon’s military response around the Lake Chad Basin.”
“Mali: more than 2,400 schools remain closed as insecurity disrupts new school year.
“According to figures from Mali’s Education Ministry, the number of closed schools has continued to rise in recent years as violence spreads across parts of the country. The closures are affecting communities already facing displacement and disruption from the conflict, leaving children with fewer opportunities to continue their education.”
“Haiti struggles with rise in kidnappings as general election looms…
“Kidnappings are on the rise in Haiti, with gangs increasingly targeting high-profile people and launching mass abductions as the country pushes to hold long-awaited presidential elections… The country hasn’t had a president since President Jovenel Moïse was killed at his private residence in July 2021…”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/haiti-jovenel-moise-portauprince-people-gangs-b3059950.html
“Student protests in Chile turn to violent clashes with police.
“Riot police in Chile’s capital deployed tear gas and water cannons to disperse hundreds of students protesting proposed education funding cuts. The protests came a day after President Jose Antonio Kast outlined possible cuts in his proposed 2027 budget.”
“‘It’s utter surrealism’: Venezuela’s Chavistas lament government’s embrace of Trump…
“Since January, a parade of high-ranking US officials – including the head of the CIA, the chair of the joint chiefs of staff and the energy secretary, Chris Wright – have visited Caracas, while Trump recently trumpeted striking “the biggest oil deal in world history” with Rodríguez’s regime.”
“How Oil and Trump Are Escalating the Falklands Dispute…
“Argentina has never accepted British sovereignty over the area. As such, Milei is adamant the oil exploration project would amount to an “illegal plundering of [Argentina’s] resources.” U.S. President Donald Trump further stoked tensions in late August when he suggested the U.S. is reviewing its neutrality on the sovereignty dispute.”
“Royal Marines return to the Faroe Islands for the first time since the Second World War as UK steps up security efforts…
“General Sir Gwyn Jenkins, First Sea Lord and Commandant General Royal Marines, said: “The Faroe Islands sit in the middle of the North Atlantic, forming a critical part of the northern approaches for both the UK and NATO. “Defending the Atlantic is fundamental to our economy, national security and way of life. In troubling times, we cannot be complacent.”
“World food prices near four-year high in September, UN says.
“World food prices rose in September to their highest in nearly four years as farmers were hit by hot weather and logistics disruptions. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index, which tracks a basket of food commodities, has jumped to its highest level since November 2022.”
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“Ukraine persists with Russian oil refinery strikes in defiance of Trump.”
I very much doubt it was in defiance of Trump. But the kayfabe duelling narrative model of domestic and now even foreign policy is the most efficient method of self-legitimation for the ruling class in these dark and trying times. To an extent that is understandable because the rich have lives to live, same as everyone else. Can’t have the peasants uniting and disrupting – perhaps even destroying – those precious lives in the name of quaint idealistic notions of equality.
Jupiviv, I think The Guardian just means here that Ukraine is attacking Russian refineries in spite of Trump telling them not to, rather than doing it out of a desire to defy Trump.
I buck a little bit against your characterisation of events as kayfabe. It makes it sound as if they are being consciously staged by the ruling class to keep the peasants in their place rather than springing from genuinely conflicting material interests between nations. Perhaps there is some truth to both perspectives though.
I’m not denying the existence of conflicting interests between nations, just this one specifically. It makes no sense that the USA doesn’t want Ukraine to strike Russian refineries while facilitating those strikes and the war in general, both financially and operationally.
Maybe there are disagreements about individual incidents but that is not defiance. Although perhaps the aristocratic “Mittel-Evropa” side of NATO (the von der Leyen types) like to think of themselves that way. Regardless when it comes down to it they will bend over and call Trump daddy… quite literally as in that infamous Rutte clip.
“It makes no sense that the USA doesn’t want Ukraine to strike Russian refineries while facilitating those strikes and the war…”
I agree it looks nonsensical but I think conflicting objectives can produce policies that look confused or contradictory without it being kayfabe though.
It’s possible that mid level Ukrainian commanders occasionally disregard what the US/NATO tells their superiors to tell them. They are Ukrainians fighting a war in defense of Ukraine after all. Still, if these conflicts ever become significant the US would immediately put its foot down because Ukraine is 100% dependent on them. Not to say that dependence is Ukraine’s fault, I mean ordinary Ukrainian people. They are one of many peoples around the world who have to bear the costs of imperialist/superpower rivalries and their own ruling class’s stake in those rivalries.
Insurance in the Age of a Special Military Operation
Russia is officially not at war with Ukraine. Moscow still refers to the conflict as a “Special Military Operation.” For insurers, that distinction is becoming increasingly expensive.
Ordinary insurance works because losses are distributed more or less randomly. Out of thousands of factories, one occasionally burns down. The premiums paid by the many cover the losses of the few. But a drone deliberately sent towards an oil refinery has little regard for an insurer’s statistics.
And there are more and more of them.
The problem has even acquired a legal dimension in Russia. In 2025, the Russian Supreme Court ruled that insurers could not automatically invoke the usual war exclusion for damage caused by shelling and drones when Russia was not formally at war. This protects the insured, but leaves insurers in a peculiar position: they may have to compensate for war-like damage arising from a war that legally does not exist.
The market is responding as markets do. Drone, sabotage and terrorism risks are increasingly being removed from ordinary policies and insured separately. Premiums rise, coverage shrinks and deductibles increase. Russia’s market for terrorism and sabotage insurance was estimated at 25–40 billion rubles in 2025, while the loss ratio had reportedly already risen above 100 percent.
By September, it had become clear that the Russian state no longer regarded this as a marginal problem. The central bank is injecting another 165 billion rubles — almost $2 billion — into the state-backed Russian National Reinsurance Company, RNRC. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the company had effectively become responsible for reinsuring terrorism and sabotage risks. Since Western reinsurers largely withdrew from Russia after 2022, RNRC has become a central pillar of the system.
The risk, in other words, merely moves from one balance sheet to another.
First the refinery carries the risk. Then the insurer. Behind the insurer stands the reinsurer. And when the reinsurer can no longer carry the risk independently, the central bank or the state eventually appears.
But nowhere along that chain does the physical damage disappear.
A damaged distillation unit still has to be repaired. Pipelines have to be replaced. A burned-out storage tank has to be rebuilt. Meanwhile, production is interrupted and companies must also spend money on nets, electronic countermeasures and other forms of protection against future attacks. Russian companies were estimated to have spent around 100 billion rubles on such protection in 2024, with that amount potentially doubling in 2025.
Insurance therefore becomes an interesting economic thermometer of the war.
As long as a risk remains readily insurable, the market believes that losses are sufficiently rare and predictable to be spread across many participants. When premiums soar, coverage disappears and eventually the state itself has to act as reinsurer,
Ultimately, the interesting figure is not what percentage of Russian refining capacity Ukraine has supposedly “knocked out.” Facilities are hit, partially repaired and sometimes attacked again. A much more interesting question is how much labour, material, credit and insurance capital Russia must continuously devote simply to maintaining the same output of usable fuel.
.
A ruble used to repair a distillation unit for the second time cannot simultaneously finance a new installation. A ruble spent on drone protection cannot pay for maintenance. And a billion rubles that the central bank has to put into a reinsurer ultimately represents another claim on society’s economic surplus.
.
Many thanks for that, Zip. Interesting that the term “Special Military Option” actually has a practical dimensions. I’d always assumed it was just a euphemism intended to minimise the conflict and allay fears at home. Looks like Russia is trying to find a workaround:
“Vladimir Putin has asked fellow BRICS members to help build a standalone insurance mechanism for the bloc, a proposal that wades straight into the middle of one of the insurance industry’s most closely watched sanctions fights.
“Addressing the closing session of the 18th BRICS summit in New Delhi on Sunday, the Russian president said the grouping had already found ways to move capital, labour and technology outside Western-controlled systems, and that it was time to add insurance and grain trading to that list.”
https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/uk/news/marine/putin-calls-for-a-brics-insurance-scheme-589613.aspx
Despite Pan-O’s stated intention of staying above the political fray, comments here are uniformly, relentlessly, earnestly reflective of the individual commenter’s given politics.
What then is any remotely collapse-aware screen looker to make of a recent back-page story that went unlinked here:
Noted serial liar-fascist Tucker Carlson says ex-casino owner leader of empire allegedly told him that Carlson’s.objections to American sponsorship of the Israeli genocide were “right, but we are all going to die anyway, so it doesn’t matter.”
So that’s what all.this daily farrago of bullshit and mass murder comes own to – pure, unadulterated Nietsche-worthy nihilism from one dementia sufferer? Ultimate existential irony, if true?
“comments here are uniformly, relentlessly, earnestly reflective of the individual commenter’s given politics”
Indeed. Nobody else here but you quotes Tucker Carlson.
Pretty sure we all know he is completely batty, but in the context of neo-liberal politics and economic theory he is spot on.
1. Classical neo-liberal theory individuals are best suited to judge their own desires. (No regulations or laws?)
2. Individuals are rational (??) actors who seek to maximise their own well being and wealth wealth. They do not see this as a moral failing but an inevitable fact.
3. The “invisible hand”: by pursuing self-interest, individuals inadvertently benefit society through job creation, innovation, and efficient resource allocation (this is where most of us on here fall down laughing)
But from this philosophy, that underpins our governments and our democracies, we can clearly see that the serial liar is the Perfect Man.
Martin, this is a naughty bit of apophasis, which is – take it from me – already putting backs up. No more of this kind of thing, please. I really don’t want to delete comments but I will to keep this a low-conflict zone.
We are privileged to have some sense of the underlying drivers turning politics so dysfunctional and unpleasant; all the more reason not to get embroiled in it on the internet.
I’ve never heard of “apophasis.” I’m not religious and have never belonged to any debate club.
Obviously, I brought up a touchy subject to an uninterested crowd. My bad, as they say – I don’t really spend any time on any other social media platforms, except the occasional Substax potshot, so I used this forum, and somehow got so may “backs up” that I am threatened with excommunication.
I do recognize that I have managed to prompt that action from many a site owner so maybe I am secretly thrilled.
But there’s still the remaining issue that went begging, which is ok by me if no one here wants to answer- is pure nihilism now revealed from apostate Carlson as the ultimate force in contemporary affairs? Yes-no maybe?
Martin, the word is quite new to me and I am not entirely sure I have used it correctly. 🤔
I spotted that claim from Tucker Carlson a few days ago and thought it was interesting, given that Trump has also spoken recently of wanting to get to heaven… but it is hearsay from someone that I don’t know well (he’s not a huge deal on this side of the Atlantic and I’ve never paid much attention to him), and you yourself feel is dishonest.
ME: Jim Rickards has much to say on inflation and gold. Remember that if you can’t hold it, you don’t own it.
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-10-01/washington-will-inflate-away-its-40-trillion-debt-and-gold-how-you-fight
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob, post-WW2 is a poor analogue for our current energy-constrained reality, and we’ll have more to worry about 24 years from now than how much debt the US has managed to inflate away. Gold could still be handy though.
“Gold’s recent slide may not be enough to undermine the longer-term case for holding the precious metal, according to Morgan Stanley, which sees resilient physical demand and concerns over government finances providing structural support for bullion.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/gold-price-metal-bullion.html
It feels like we might be moving into the “every man, family, tribe, nation” for itself phase of resource depletion. Several commentators have been saying there will soon be growing food shortages … but not in the rich countries (phew). I think they are going to be unpleasantly surprised.
George, I cringe a bit when I hear the UK breezily described as a rich country. Running on debt and the fumes of past glories whilst circling the net energy drain is a more accurate characterisation.
“Why Britain’s food supply chains are ‘frighteningly fragile’… Empty shelves, riots on the streets over food and eventual societal breakdown may sound like something from the pages of a JG Ballard novel…
“[However], food shortages are now a very real prospect over the coming months, multiple food sector insiders are warning, as a result of terrible growing conditions in both the UK and key overseas regions. Last month, the latest in a long line of alarming reports by think tank the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit showed milk supply was down by more than 240 million litres due to heat impacts.
“Meanwhile, British arable crop growers are predicting the worst harvest on record. At the same time, potato growers have warned of smaller crops, onion growers are facing their “most challenging season ever” and brassicas are down 50%. If that wasn’t alarming enough, the government has begun cautiously suggesting the population should start thinking about stockpiling crucial food items “just in case”.”
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/analysis-and-features/why-britains-food-supply-chains-are-frighteningly-fragile/724379.article
What pan is trying to say is collapse goes beyond party politics thats why he doesn’t like. Both parties participate in our demise at this point. Right or left will not save our asses at this point. Both parties participate in genocide and war. In the end as things collapse i do not want to be in office as the masses come knocking on the elites doors and its coming not if but when and the French Revolution will look like a tea party.
“Collapse goes beyond party politics…”
This is it in nutshell, Heather. For the purposes of this blog, we have bigger fish to fry.
The El Nino effect
‐—-
India’s government has ordered 112 coal-fired power plants—owned by Tata Steel, Reliance and other industrial giants to supply their own factories—to run at maximum capacity from this week until the end of the year. The intervention, unprecedented in scale, invokes a law that requires plants to sell surplus power to the grid in extraordinary circumstances.
Coal generates 70% of India’s electricity. But an unseasonably warm September boosted demand for air conditioning, pushing stockpiles down by nearly a quarter. Alternative energy sources offer little relief.
Hydropower generation fell by nearly 11% in the six months to September as dry weather drained reservoirs. Solar meets as much as 22% of peak daytime demand, but the grid lacks enough battery storage to supply power in the evening, when demand peaks.
Meanwhile around 17% of electricity is lost in transmission and distribution, more than double the global average. India is building capacity fast. But delivering that power remains a struggle.
As usual, The Honest Sorcerer and the writer called Hideaway of CACTUS fame on the website Un-Denial both nail the Collapse!
ht,tps://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/rising-complexity-cannot-end-in-any
——
Rising Complexity Cannot End In Any Other Way
Modernity demands a constant growth in energy and material inputs – what could possibly go wrong with that?
——
From Rob at Un-denial discussing Hideaway’s CACTUS THEORY.
https://un-denial.com/2026/09/22/is-cactus-just-a-clever-name-for-old-well-understood-ideas/
——
CACTUS stands for Complexity Accelerated Collapse of a Thermodynamically Unsustainable System.
It’s originator is a retired mining engineer turned reclusive prepper named Hideaway who lives on a doomstead somewhere in Australia.
In Australia, cactus is slang for something that is ruined, broken or finished.
So yes, CACTUS is a clever name…
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Me: I have linked to Un-denial before here on C & E. I would hope that any newbies to Pan’s website would study the two links above.
Of course, Jay Hanson’s Thermo/Gene Collision is essential,too. Link in the next comment as link limit per comment is 2.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I was the person who found the Saudi Ghawar oil saturation graphic that sent TheOilDrum into a tizzy back on April 6th, 2007. I was==> totoneila
Jay Hanson, Nate Hagens, Ron Patterson [Darwinian], me & others were on Jay’s Dieoff.com back in the early 2000s.
I called Jay’s magnum opus: “The Thermo/Gene Collision” back on July 24th, 2006, on TheOilDrum. Jay used it to later title his 8-page report and I was greatly honored by that deed. Sadly, Jay is now gone, but wow did he affect so many lives.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
https://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc1703/tsc_17_3_hanson.shtml