Huge thanks to Kimpton Bradford for being my monthly sponsor again. His words:
“During this early autumn month, let’s thank the intellectual giants who came before us and helped illuminate the path towards recognising the dramatic changes taking place in our environment. Henry David Thoreau, John Muir and Aldo Leopold form part of a remarkable intellectual throughline, laying the foundations for so many of the thinkers we listen to and lean on today.”
“The Next Global Energy Crisis Won’t Come From Just One Direction.
“A new World Economic Forum analysis argues cyberattacks, sabotage, extreme weather and geopolitical risk need to be managed as one system, not by separate teams with separate budgets.”
“Oil prices rebound above $105 after Trump rejects Iranian Hormuz peace deal.
“Brent crude futures climbed to $105.64 a barrel by 0036 GMT, whilst US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to reach $93.11 a barrel. Iran announced the peace initiative last week on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, confirming it had been transmitted to Washington via Qatari intermediaries.”
https://www.trtworld.com/article/6ed7300e98ec
“Higher oil prices rippled through global bond markets on Monday, sparking a further sell-off in government debt and denting appetite for equities…
“Selling pressure on US Treasuries resumed on Monday, with yields on 10-year bonds rising 0.04 percentage points to 5.2 per cent.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d751ad99-531d-4990-9a4c-ee89a9fc1b2d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Historic day for global bonds as 10-year Treasury and JGB yields hit highest in decades…
“Earlier this month, Japan’s benchmark borrowing costs already rose to their highest level in three decades, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that he expects action from Tokyo and the Bank of Japan to support the falling yen.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/japan-jgb-bond-yield-treasurys.html
“The Bond Market Is Getting Closer to Sounding Alarm on Economy [US]…
““Seeing the two- and 10-year curve invert or flatten dramatically calls into question the idea that the economy is very strong and that is part of what’s being priced into the bond market,” said Zach Griffiths, head of investment-grade and macro strategy at the research firm CreditSights.”
“Bessent Urges Fed to Keep ‘Open Mind’ on US Inflation Outlook.
“Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Federal Reserve policymakers should keep an “open mind” on interest rates, arguing that productivity gains from artificial intelligence and deregulation will help keep US inflation in check.”
“Debt-hungry AI companies face increased risk as bond yields spike.
“With Treasury yields climbing this week to their highest levels since 2007, companies reliant on debt are poised to see their borrowing costs rise. That means the AI infrastructure buildout, which has already reached historic levels, is about to get even more expensive.”
“Trump Says He’s ‘Very Seriously’ Looking at Diesel Export Ban…
“Diesel powers farm equipment, freight trains, trucks and delivery vans. US retail prices hit a record last week and are averaging about $6.50 a gallon, adding to voter anxiety over living costs before November’s midterm elections.”
“‘It’s just getting worse’: anger in Maine over Trump’s trade war with close neighbor Canada…
“Logging’s health is a crucial bellwether for the overall state of its economy, and things are looking bleak in the midst of a trade war with Canada and record-high diesel prices. Democrats are hoping the frustration will finally unseat Republican Susan Collins…”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/sep/26/maine-voters-canada-trump-trade-war
“Counter-terror police investigate Iran link over suspected bomb plot at RAF base used by US [UK].
“Counter-terrorism police are investigating whether Iran is behind a suspected bomb plot after armed officers found explosives on three vans parked minutes from an RAF base used by the US military.”
“Diesel car values crash as pump prices reach record high [UK]
“The drop in recent months comes as diesel prices reach new highs in the UK. Donald Trump’s threat to ring-fence diesel supplies for American drivers has seen pump prices climb to a record £2 a litre during the weekend, with analysts suggesting it could hit £2.50 or even £3 if the Iran war drags on.”
“[UK] Fishermen seek urgent help with soaring fuel costs…
“Paul Trebilcock, of fish supplier W Stevens and Sons, said the government allowed subsidised EU fleets access to UK waters while local fishermen received no help. “The EU gives 20p of subsidy per litre to their fleets but our government does nothing – it beggars belief.””
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9770gp3jv55o
“The bond markets will force austerity on Britain and France…
“The French have higher taxes, while the British have higher welfare bills. They have the backing of the European Central Bank, while we can still print our own money. And of course, while French bond yields are spiking up sharply, the UK’s are still a whole percentage point higher.”
“Europe braces for LNG tug of war with Asia.
“A global tug of war for liquefied natural gas cargoes threatens to catapult prices even higher as Europe needs to secure more supplies than usual for the winter and buyers in Asia are willing to pay far more than in the past.”
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/europe-braces-for-lng-tug-of-war-with-asia-20260927-p610vd
“EU tells countries to curb energy demand as gas prices face winter squeeze…
“European Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen urged EU governments to continue curbing energy demand to reduce gas and electricity consumption amid “exceptionally low” storage levels, according to a letter seen by Euronews.”
“Tens of thousands attend right-wing protest over Ceuta migrant crisis [Spain].
“Saturday’s protest in Madrid was organised by right-wing civil society group Sociedad Civil Espanola and backed by the mainstream conservative People’s Party (PP) and far-right Vox… At the end of July, more than 70,000 migrants stormed into the autonomous Spanish city of Ceuta from neighbouring Morocco…”
“‘Russian sleeper cell’: Can Germany’s far-right AfD be barred from sensitive intel?
“The prospect of an AfD-led government in Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt has exacerbated long-standing fears that the far-right Russia-friendly party may gain access to sensitive information of interest to the Kremlin, fuelling debate as to whether and how it can be barred from classified intelligence.”
“Poland calls Starlink station fire ‘sabotage’, says it targeted Ukraine military internet.
“A blaze at a Starlink station in Poland that engulfed its power system and backup generator on Wednesday evening (23 September) was an act of sabotage aimed at disrupting internet services, including for Ukraine’s military, a government minister said.”
“EU countries consider Nato-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks.
“European Union countries are considering a NATO-style mutual doctrine to launch joint responses against Russian hybrid attacks… the move aims to lower the threshold at which “grey-zone” operations trigger a coordinated bloc-level retaliation, removing the strategic ambiguity that Moscow has previously exploited.”
https://www.ft.com/content/5513b441-a575-4c73-8532-cb09216c4406?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Russia scales up strikes on Ukraine as largest steelmaker halts operations.
“A wave of Russian strikes has hit various regions across Ukraine. The country’s largest steel plant has halted operations, with owner ArcelorMittal stating it can no longer operate its facility in Kryvyi Rih safely.”
“Ukraine strikes Russian oil refinery despite Trump’s call for ceasefire…
“The Ukrainian army said the Ilsky refinery produced fuel for the Russian army and was a legitimate target under Ukraine’s right to self-defence. Russian authorities in Krasnodar reported that three people were killed and two others were injured in the attack. Images from the scene showed a huge fire rising from the refinery.”
“Baltic and Caspian routes offset only 25% of Russia’s grain export losses through Black Sea ports.
“Alternative routes through the Baltic and Caspian regions have offset only about 25% of grain export losses through Russia’s southern corridor, according to Oleg Knyazkov, deputy head of the Industry Expertise Center at Rosselkhozbank.”
“Kazakh oil producers weigh new trans-Caspian route to avoid Russia.
“Oil majors in Kazakhstan are conducting a feasibility study for a trans-Caspian export route to bypass Russia after Ukrainian drones repeatedly attacked a Black Sea terminal and tankers this year. More than 80% of Kazakh oil exports, the economy’s lifeblood, is transported via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) line.”
“Cambodia and Thailand trade blame at the UN General Assembly.
“The diplomatic showdown between Cambodia and Thailand over the border dispute took the main stage again at the United Nations (UN), as the representatives of both Southeast Asian nations accused each other of “lacking good faith” in finding a solution to the issue which caused bloodshed last year.”
https://www.khmertimeskh.com/502031415/cambodia-and-thailand-trade-blame-at-the-un-general-assembly/
“Dhaka’s energy crisis is turning everyday life into survival [Bangladesh].
“”Everyday survival in Dhaka has quietly turned into an exhausting psychological tax. Between sudden blackouts, skyrocketing grocery bills, and endless queues, the emotional toll of constant adjustment is burning the city out,” Jannatul Bushra highlights.”
https://asianews.network/dhakas-energy-crisis-is-turning-everyday-life-into-survival/
“Nepal’s flooding disaster set to pile billions onto its national debt…
“A subsequent rapid assessment of damage from the Nepalese government has put the cost of recovery and reconstruction at $4.8bn (£3.6bn) – equivalent to 11 per cent of the country’s GDP – and government figures have called for grant-based compensation as a matter of “climate justice”…”
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/nepal-floods-climate-aid-debt-himalayas-b3056274.html
“Manipur violence: Over 60 killed since early 2026, N Biren Singh says.
“While the core conflict began between the Meiteis and Kukis, recent months have seen an escalation of spillover violence affecting previously neutral Naga communities, further aggravating the state’s fragile security landscape.”
“India news: New Delhi, Islamabad trade accusations at UN General Assembly.
“Describing Pakistan as a “puppet” regime, India has ripped into the country’s “falsehoods” and “deceit” at the United Nations (UN), warning that continued terrorism by Islamabad will have consequences.”
https://dailypioneer.com/news/india-lashes-out-at-pak-over-terrorism-at-united-nations
“Pakistan, Afghanistan trade accusations as both claim killing dozens of militants…
“Islamabad said its forces killed 71 militants “backed and sponsored” by Afghanistan and India in security operations across southwestern Balochistan province over the past 96 hours… Afghanistan, for its part, said on Sunday its forces killed 28 militants and wounded 32…”
“Iran shifts trade north to Caspian Sea as war impairs Strait of Hormuz.
“With Iran’s southern ports subject to a United States naval blockade, Tehran is looking for alternatives to export oil and import goods. The Caspian Sea on Iran’s northern coast is seen as one portal for Iran to the outside world.”
“Oil-Rich Iraq Hit By Gasoline Shortage, Long Queues As Regional War Disrupts Supplies.
“According to a report by AFP, motorists were seen waiting for hours at mainly government-operated filling stations in Baghdad and other provinces, with residents saying shortages have become increasingly frequent in recent weeks as regional hostilities continue.”
“Türkiye slams storming of Al-Aqsa Mosque by Israeli extremist groups…
“In a statement, the Turkish foreign ministry accused the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of seeking to further inflame regional tensions and, through violations and provocations against Muslim holy sites, to subvert efforts to promote peace and stability.”
https://www.trtworld.com/article/da74694211e8
“Israeli strikes continue in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire.
“Israeli strikes and shelling continue across southern Lebanon, with an Israeli Apache helicopter striking a commercial centre near Mayfadoun. The attacks come as destruction continues across the region despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework.”
“61m tonnes of rubble: Gaza aid workers face delicate task of clearing ruins concealing up to 10,000 bodies…
“The UN estimates that removing the bulk of the rubble in the Gaza Strip could take at least seven to 10 years and cost billions of dollars. That would make the removal of war debris in Gaza one of the largest rubble-clearance operations in modern history.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/27/rubble-gaza-un-aid-workers-ruins-dead-bodies
“Yemen: Houthis report deadly Saudi strikes on Taiz market…
“The group’s Al-Masirah TV channel showed footage of large plumes of smoke and a destroyed warehouse stacked with food in cardboard boxes. Al-Masirah TV also reported that children were among those wounded, citing the Houthis’ health ministry.”
https://www.dw.com/en/yemen-houthis-report-deadly-saudi-strikes-on-taiz-market/a-79450102
“Yemen government forces widen attacks against Houthis…
“In recent weeks, the Houthis have made dramatic territorial gains against the government forces, seizing the strategic Red Sea coastal city of Mocha and expanding their control over the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a global maritime chokepoint connecting Europe to Asia.”
“Ethiopia accuses Eritrea, Sudan of backing Tigray rebels amid clashes.
“Heavy clashes have resumed between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government since Wednesday, raising fears of a return to a 2020-2022 civil war in which an estimated 600,000 people died. The TPLF has seized airports and launched attacks into the neighbouring states of Afar and Amhara…”
https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20260927-ethiopia-accuses-eritrea-sudan-backing-tigray-rebels
“Strikes hit Sudan cities as army chief defiant after US visa snub.
“Two Sudanese cities were targeted by strikes on Sunday, witnesses told AFP, a day after army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan vowed to press ahead with the years-long war against a rival paramilitary force despite a US visa snub and mounting pressure for a ceasefire.”
“Sudan’s refugee exodus to Chad jumps 20-fold as aid dries up.
“There has been a sharp increase in the number of people fleeing from Sudan to Chad to escape fighting and dire conditions, and aid funding is failing to keep up with needs, the United Nations refugee agency said on Friday.”
https://middle-east-online.com/en/sudan%E2%80%99s-refugee-exodus-chad-jumps-20-fold-aid-dries
“DR Congo, Sudan and Mali lead Africa’s military drone imports…
“Military drone trade is being reshaped by conflicts in Europe and Africa, with the US and Iran supplying opposing sides in the Russia-Ukraine war, while China and Türkiye have emerged as key suppliers to African countries such as DR Congo, Sudan and Mali.”
“DR Congo’s Ebola outbreak spreads to two new health zones, WHO says…
“The additional cases bring the number of health zones affected to 63 across seven provinces as authorities struggle to control the outbreak. As of September 23, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, or DRC, has reported 7,890 confirmed cases and 3,799 deaths…”
“UN mission warns disruption to Libya oil infrastructure could trigger sanctions.
“Attacks targeting Libya’s energy infrastructure, or any actions that could undermine it, may constitute grounds for sanctions under relevant UN Security Council resolutions, the UN Support Mission in Libya said on Saturday.”
“Venezuela’s Oil Comeback Could Cost More Than $100 Billion.
“The U.S.-led restructuring of the sector kicked out Russian and Chinese companies out of previously awarded concessions, and spurred a flurry of oil deals with oil majors, the biggest oilfield service providers, and relatively unknown newcomers—all with the purpose of boosting Venezuela’s oil production and exporting a large part of it to the United States.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Venezuelas-Oil-Comeback-Could-Cost-More-Than-100-Billion.html
“‘Atrocious’ crime: Cuban official decries possibility of US military action.
“A senior official in Cuba has warned that any prospective United States military action taken against the island nation would constitute a serious international crime, and has rejected claims made by US President Donald Trump that Cuba is a failed state.”
“‘We cannot take it anymore’: Haiti’s informal vendors protest over gang warfare.
“…because of increased gang activity, the two main regions that supply Port-au-Prince with food have now been cut off. The two major roads leading to the south and north are controlled by various groups from the Viv Ansanm criminal coalition…”
“The gangs testing Colombia’s hardline new leader.
“Colombia’s new rightwing president Abelardo de la Espriella is facing the first major test of his hardline security policy after armed gunmen attacked a tourist hotspot on the nation’s Caribbean coast.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e13e3260-83ef-4474-98cb-15339bc6e3d5
“As El Niño advances, Britain’s preppers may have a point…
“It is worth considering getting in a few days’ supply of bottled water, enough to cook with as well as drink. Experts recommend stocking up on lean proteins – tuna and chickpeas, for example – alongside carbs such as pasta and rice. Think of pets, too, and neighbours who might be vulnerable.”
https://observer.co.uk/news/national/article/as-el-nino-advances-britains-preppers-may-have-a-point
I rely on donations and tips from my readers to keep the site running. Every little bit helps. Can you chip in even a dollar? Buy me a coffee or become a Patreon supporter. A huge thank you to those who do subscribe or donate.
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Concerning UK and European gas supplies.
Last year subsea compression was added to Ormen Lange, which more than doubled its production and increased the supply from Nyhamna gas plant direct to the UK by over 50%. However the cost is very rapid depletion and decline – the reserve to production ratio is now 3.5 years, for Aasta Hansteen, the second largest feed to Nyhamna, it is less than 3.
There are two medium sized fields, Irpa and Dvalin North, due to be tied in about now, which will further boost immediate supply, but in five years total production will have fallen to about 20% of the new peak, which will see overall R/P of about 4 years. There are other smaller tie-back opportunities, so maybe not quite this bad, but I think Equinor are planning for end of life in 2039.
I was in Norway when Nyhamna was built and there were TV adverts stating how Norsk Hydro was allowing the UK to keep the lights on but not for much longer.
In the UK North Sea decline rate for natural gas is around 13% and accelerating slightly. One of the largest recent developments, Langan-Tormore, is on its last legs and has only produced about 60% of P-10 expectations. By the early 30s the UK will be at least 60 to 70% down on gas supply direct from the North Sea and would need LNG or a restart of Russian gas through European inter connectors if it wanted to replace it all (neither seem likely).
Troll is the biggest single supplier to Europe, and is still on plateau production, but has R/P of only about 12.5 years now. Decline usually sets in at around ten years at latest and, for gas fields, often looks linear and steep until near final decline, rather than exponential (technically this is because while the field pressure falls so does the discharge pressure of the compressors, because of lower pipeline flow).
Prognosis for the populations: cold or baking, hungry, unhappy, unemployed, restive and looking for someone to blame.
Iraq is the Persian Gulf country showing the largest fall in drilling rigs – from over 60 to below 20. GCC countries have overall only dropped 5 or 10%. Numbers for Iran aren’t available but I’d guess there has been a big impact.
For Venezuela I think the 100 billion development costs are still underestimated because security, corruption and flying engineers in and out will be the largest operating costs, just as the western IOCs discovered in Iraq before mostly pulling out. The figure also implies a fairly lax view on environmental protection and clean up of the existing mess left in Lake Maracaibo, the Orinoco belt and from dumping of petroleum coke rich in Vanadium and other nasties.
Thank you, George, for the very interesting overview.
The global economy has been able to offset decades of declining net energy with technology/efficiency gains and compensatory finance, but the sort of looming physical oil/gas shortages your regular analyses imply are a whole different ball game. The UK has gone from developed to declining. Pre-collapse degradation is next, it seems.
“It is worth considering getting in a few days’ supply of bottled water, enough to cook with as well as drink. Experts recommend stocking up on lean proteins – tuna and chickpeas, for example – alongside carbs such as pasta and rice. Think of pets, too, and neighbours who might be vulnerable.”
Unless done collectively, this is a 100% waste of time and effort IF the goal is to actually survive a protracted supply chain collapse, as opposed to putting a label to a hobby in the context of (usually post retirement) middle class, globally interconnected life. (If the latter, then it’s great eccentric fun and the pretense of seriousness is a part of that fun, like girls desperately nursing their sick doll babies or boys fighting to the death over impugnments of non-existent manhood.)
And by collectively I mean an entire town or village or city. Realistically, several of each. But wait, that’s not prepping it’s like a social/political revolution or something? Indeed it is but this is where the premise of prepperism leads you if you take it seriously – from the serene heaven of self-sustaining individuality right back down into the raucous smelly hell of other people. Sorry, I didn’t make the rules.
Ironically, prepping “makes sense” precisely because it’s not what it’s advertised being. It has that in common with climate action, UN missions, bank bailouts and MMT. It is both a microcosm of the dysfunction of BAU, and a fantasy that dysfunction miniaturized and reduced down to barest essentials redeems itself.
“Who art thou?” said the Giant, and a strange awe fell on him, and he knelt before the little child.
And the child smiled on the Giant, and said to him, “You let me play once in your garden, to-day you shall come with me to my garden, which is Paradise.”
And when the children ran in that afternoon, they found the Giant lying dead under the tree, all covered with white blossoms.
(Oscar Wilde, The Selfish Giant)
Jupiviv, our local Co-op was unable to restock for several days last year after a cyberattack. Severe storms can knock power out for a few days here, and indeed across much the UK. I think it is these sorts of eventualiaties that the govermment is anticipating coming thicker and faster than before.
I don’t think, as yet, that they are entertaining notions of a full-scale socio-economic collapse. I wish they would use the possibility of food shortages and the certainty of food inflation to get people thinking about growing their own food. Even that is probably pissing in the wind but…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c071e7x80djo
That Oscar Wilde story is so beautiful. I loved The Happy Prince, too, when I was a kid.
Iraq is one of the world’s largest oil producers, yet motorists in Baghdad and other cities are waiting for hours to buy petrol. In recent weeks, shortages have repeatedly returned.
We are still often told that there is plenty of oil. That is rather like telling a thirsty person in the middle of the ocean that there is plenty of water.
The amount of oil present somewhere in the Earth’s crust tells us very little about the amount of fuel an economy can actually use. The relevant question is how much oil can be extracted, processed and delivered to the right place at an acceptable cost, using the energy, capital and infrastructure available.
A reserve on paper is therefore not the same thing as available production.
Iraq demonstrates that even production does not necessarily mean petrol. The country produces millions of barrels of crude oil every day, but its refineries do not produce enough petrol and diesel to meet domestic demand. According to the Iraqi parliament, the country produced around 28.9 million litres of petrol per day in August and imported another 3.9 million litres, while daily consumption stood at 34.5 million litres. In other words, there was already a shortfall that had to be covered by imports.
When the regional war and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz made it more difficult for tankers to reach Iraq, part of that additional supply disappeared. Motorists then began filling their tanks more frequently for fear of shortages. Daily demand consequently rose towards 38 million litres.
A relatively small shortfall was thus transformed into long queues at filling stations.
Iraq has now been forced to import petrol via a remarkable detour. Petrol is shipped to the Syrian Mediterranean port of Baniyas and from there transported overland to Iraq by tanker trucks.
It is a striking illustration of the real energy problem. One of the world’s largest oil producers has to transport imported petrol thousands of kilometres in order to supply its own filling stations.
The failure of a single refinery can be compensated for. Perhaps the closure of a shipping route can be as well. But when disruptions to production, refining, shipping and logistics occur simultaneously, they begin to reinforce one another.
Thank you, Zip. You make some great points.
Mexico and Nigeria spring to mind as oil producers that, even in peacetime, have to import refined products.
Russia’s situation parallels Iraq’s. It is having to import refined products from India, Turkey and even Morocco. They have extended their export ban through October. Let’s hope Trump doesn’t join them or we are really going to have problems.
Hi Zip, great read and the line to remember, when you are waiting in line to fill up your near empty tank at the fuel pump before someone places an “out of gas” sign after being there for half an hour or more (which happened to myself in the 1970s fuel embargo), is:
“A relatively small shortfall was thus transformed into long queues at filling stations.”
Most have no idea what’s ahead, and it ain’t pretty…
I still vividly remember the absolute mayhem just a few disgruntled truckers and farmers blockading refineries caused in 2000:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/23/autumn-2000-fuel-shortages-uk-standstill-price-protest-panic-buying
It’s as though those who decried Peak Oil the loudest are the very ones who have wrangled it, and it’s ramifications, into existence decades early. in order to… ?
From what we’re seeing, though, it is plain that capitalism’s shuddering collapse will not result in any Velvet Revolution, but an iron-fisted nuclear-fueled, maniacal cataclysm, to judge by what we just witnessed at the AN: Atomized Nations.
“Atomized Nations.” Nice. 😂
I don’t think I have ever seen a UN General Assembly as toxic and fractious as the current one. Milei threatening The Falklands; Cuba and Iran walking out on Trump; many delegations walking out on Netanyahu; Cambodia trading accusations with Thailand; India trading accusations with Pakistan; Israel trading accusations Turkey etc. etc.
I don’t need no steenkin AI to research for me. I know that anyone that owns any Chinese imports just might be a communist, communist sympathizer or domestic enemy of their non-communist government. Hope they enjoy their comradeship.
hypocrisy- the practice of professing standards, beliefs, etc, contrary to one’s real character or actual behavior, esp the pretense of virtue and piety.
“Keeping it real.” 😉