Huge thanks to Kimpton Bradford for being my monthly sponsor again. His words:
“During this early autumn month, let’s thank the intellectual giants who came before us and helped illuminate the path towards recognising the dramatic changes taking place in our environment. Henry David Thoreau, John Muir and Aldo Leopold form part of a remarkable intellectual throughline, laying the foundations for so many of the thinkers we listen to and lean on today.”
“Global debt tops $365 trillion as economists sound alarm over ‘vicious cycle’.
“Ever-higher costs to service mounting debt loads pose a major risk to governments around the world, economists have warned. Global debt rose by $10 trillion in the first half of the year to top $365 trillion, according to research published by the Institute of International Finance on Wednesday.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/global-debt-bond-yields-inflation.html
“Government debt ‘really starting to concern investors’.
“Investors have rushed to sell off government bonds around the world on Thursday, with the yield on the US 10-year Treasury reaching 5.13% at one point. Anna MacDonald of Hargreaves Lansdown told Reuters that energy-driven inflation is part of the problem, but markets are also worried about the sheer scale of government debt.”
https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW506624092026RP1/
“The bond market and stock market are both sounding the alarm that a crash may be coming…
“The Bank for International Settlements in Basel, a club of central bankers, fears the deadly nexus of high government borrowing with leveraged hedge funds, overwrought private credit providers and elevated AI-driven valuations on equity markets. The IMF is on high alert ahead of its annual meetings in Bangkok starting on October 12.”
“Oil prices have jumped following renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, including claimed strikes on facilities belonging to state-run energy giant Aramco.
“Brent crude, the key yardstick of global prices, rose more than 3 percent on Thursday as the attacks stoked fears of additional disruption to energy supplies…”
“BREAKING: Ukrainian drones have struck the Perm oil refinery in Russia, with a fire at the facility.
“Perm is one of six major Russian refineries that together account for roughly half of the country’s diesel production, according to Reuters… . The reported strike comes as Russia’s refining sector faces major disruption from repeated drone attacks.” [World Conflict]
https://x.com/WorldConflict_X/status/2103321119667454148
“Big business warns Trump against diesel export ban in joint letter…
“The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Business Roundtable, National Association of Manufacturers, American Petroleum Institute and dozens of other groups told Trump that an export ban would “lead to less fuel production, tighter supplies and rising costs for American families, farmers and truckers.””
“VLCC Rates Hit Record $1.27 Million a Day as Oman Transfer Capacity Maxes Out.
“Capacity for ship-to-ship transfers of crude oil off the coast of Oman has reached its limits after Saudi Arabia diverted its flows from the port of Yanbu amid Houthi attacks, Reuters has reported, citing unnamed trading sources and analysts.”
“Iran awaiting response from Trump on proposal to open strait of Hormuz in six days…
“For the US, there are difficulties in the plan related to forcing Israel to end the war in Lebanon. Israel may object to giving Iran such clear control over the route through which ships would travel through the strait of Hormuz. Iran also wants to retain control of shipping to prevent some US military shipping going through the strait.”
“Iran sees air, land travel chaos as US sanctions bite.
“Flights between Iran and the United Arab Emirates have been suspended, following tighter US sanctions on Iran’s aviation industry. The move effectively cuts Tehran off from Dubai, one of the region’s most important commercial hubs. There are also huge backups near Iran’s border with Turkey, as overland shipping routes struggle to fill the gaps.”
https://www.france24.com/en/iran-sees-air-land-travel-chaos-as-us-sanctions-bite
“Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf: Enjoy 5.1% Yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasuries…
“Ghalibaf questioned whether the United States had wanted to drag Iran back to the 1970s, asking whether anyone had told Washington that Iran was not for “arrogant amateurs.” He said Iran would instead return the United States to the rates of the 1970s, along with high gasoline prices, diesel shortages and bell-bottom trousers.”
https://wanaen.com/ghalibaf-enjoy-5-1-yield-on-10-year-u-s-treasuries/
“Japanese government bond yields hit new high as global sell-off continues…
“A rout in global government debt continued on Friday as Japanese bond yields hit a new multi-decade high and US Treasuries suffered a further sell-off… US 30-year Treasuries are now trading at about 5.48 per cent, their highest level since 2004.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c5af4151-2c14-481b-8145-f5ec1f43a3f4?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“US mortgage rates breach 7% as affordability pressures mount…
“Surging yields on government bonds and rising oil prices from the war in Iran drive inflation fears as national elections near… The rate increase, combined with weak existing home sales data and residential construction starts figures released over the summer, has further stoked fears around the cost of housing in the US. The mood among developers has darkened…”
https://www.ft.com/content/cabe2c29-9f66-470b-b7ac-b2bc324aa367
“Trump and Xi strike cordial tone at summit amid underlying tensions…
“Despite the pageantry of the morning’s ceremonies at the White House — which included hundreds of U.S. military personnel and a B-2 stealth bomber flyover — expectations for any big breakthroughs on issues ranging from AI to Iran to a trade war truce are low.”
https://www.npr.org/2026/09/24/g-s1-144806/trump-xi-summit
“Americans and Canadians united in hating Trump’s tariffs, poll finds…
“Talks between the United States and its northern neighbor collapsed in August, prompting the U.S. president to impose tariffs on some Canadian imports. Canada responded with its own “dollar-for-dollar” levies, with the relationship between Ottawa and Washington, D.C., becoming increasingly frosty ever since.”
“UK food exports slump as US tariffs hit products like salmon.
“Food export volumes plunged 12 per cent in the period, the weakest start to a year since the pandemic in 2021, the Food and Drink Federation said on Friday (Sep 25). Meanwhile, food imports were close to the record high reached a year earlier, suggesting the UK is becoming more reliant on overseas producers.”
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/uk-food-exports-slump-us-tariffs-hit-products-salmon
“Factory energy use crashes to record low [UK]…
“Industrial energy consumption tumbled by 4.9pc last year, according to official figures, reaching the lowest level on record… The figures emerged barely 48 hours after petrochemicals giant Ineos became the latest company to mothball UK plants because of soaring energy costs.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/09/25/factory-energy-use-crashes-to-record-low/
“Norway central bank raises interest rate, may hike again…
“”We believe it will be necessary to maintain elevated interest rates for a time to come, and we are prepared to raise them again if the inflation outlook warrants it,” Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache told a press conference.”
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2026/0924/1592775-norway-central-bank-raises-rates/
“Europe’s Diesel Shock Is Moving Into Borrowing Costs, Permutable Analysis Finds.
“New analysis from Permutable shows European diesel prices have nearly doubled since the conflict began on 28 February, while the rise in US long-term borrowing costs has come overwhelmingly through real yields.”
https://hedgefundalpha.com/news/europe-diesel-prices-oil/
“French far left sparks backlash with debt ‘fire’ plan.
“French politicians and economists are fighting over the claim by far-left presidential hopeful Jean-Luc Mélenchon that France could simply “take” bonds accumulated by the Banque de France during years of ECB quantitative easing and “throw them into the fire”. “No one will ever notice that they’ve disappeared,” he said…”
https://www.ft.com/content/1b416427-0e86-40c0-9536-c31d76635313
“Two Weeks, Two Thousand Jobs: Eastern Germany’s Chemical Industry Hits a Breaking Point…
“Germany’s deindustrialization is gathering pace. In the past two weeks the chemical industry in the east of the country has lost as many jobs as it did over the previous six years. The overall shortfall is more than 2,000 skilled employees. The reasons are plain: prohibitive gas prices and inflated carbon-emission quotas are forcing plants to cut staff.”
“Russian military helicopter violates Polish airspace, fighter jets scrambled.
“The Mi-8 helicopter entered Braniewo, close to the Kaliningrad exclave. It remained in Polish airspace for about 42 seconds. Polish fighter jets were scrambled on Wednesday morning after a Russian Mi-8 military helicopter entered Polish airspace near Braniewo in the Warmian-Masurian region.”
“Parliament in Moldova approved the introduction of a 60-day state of emergency for energy and water supplies.
“Lawmakers in Moldova voted Tuesday to impose a 60-day state of emergency on its energy and water sectors, citing declining water levels in the Dniester River and global conflicts driving up energy costs.”
“Warnings of famine grow in Ukrainian town of Oleshky…
“Hasanenko said the situation worsened last winter. She said there were about 6,000 people left in the area, including 180 children. They have already become accustomed to living without electricity and gas and have to fetch water from wells. Now, they have to prepare for another harsh winter.”
“Krasnodar Region Declares State of Emergency as Ukrainian Strikes Cripple Grain Exports [Russia].
“Southern Russia’s Krasnodar region has declared a state of emergency following weeks of intense Ukrainian strikes against Black Sea ports and shipping infrastructure, which have hobbled export routes and left local farms overflowing with unsold grain, authorities said.”
“Russia ties Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine to halt in oil refinery strikes.
“Both the Russian and Ukrainian governments view Turkey’s proposal for a moratorium on Black Sea shipping attacks as “positive”, but Kyiv does not expect a breakthrough soon because of Moscow’s “irrelevant” additional demands, regional diplomats familiar with the issue told Middle East Eye.”
“Kyrgyzstan faces hard choices on a half-empty fuel tank.
“Russia supplies 93 per cent of Kyrgyzstan’s imported petrol and diesel, and its temporary export restrictions have pushed pump prices sharply higher. Kyrgyzstan’s efforts to diversify its fuel supply reveal the limits of relying on alternative suppliers that exist only on paper.”
https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/09/25/kyrgyzstan-faces-hard-choices-on-a-half-empty-fuel-tank/
“Russia recruiting up to 25,000 North Koreans to assemble drones: What the data shows…
“Workers from North Korea are now reportedly spread across Russia, from traditional employment regions in the Far East (Vladivostok, Khabarovsk and Sakhalin) to newer destinations such as Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Irkutsk.”
“Philippines accuses China of obstructing resupply mission in South China Sea.
“On September 25, 2026, the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea accused the China Coast Guard and the People’s Liberation Army Navy of obstructing a routine rotation and resupply (RoRe) mission to Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal).”
“Four civilians killed in suspected attack by Myanmar-based rebels in Manipur…
“According to the police, the incident occurred on Thursday evening when suspected KNA-B militants, armed with sophisticated weapons, entered Pilong Naga village and opened fire on villagers, killing four civilians. Pilong Naga village is located along the India-Myanmar border…”
“India rejects OIC references to Jammu and Kashmir, urges group to counsel Pakistan.
“India has rejected references to Jammu and Kashmir in a communiqué issued by the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Contact Group, saying the group should instead advise Pakistan to address terrorism emanating from territory under its control.”
“Pakistani forces kill Afghan Taliban fighters in border escalation.
“Pakistan has foiled an “attempted Afghan aggression” on the Pakistan-Afghan border. Pakistani security sources said several Afghan members of the Taliban were killed in an intermittent exchange of fire in the Gulistan area of the border on Friday and that fighting was ongoing.”
“Iraqi panel proposes Kurdistan fuel overhaul amid shortages.
“An Iraqi parliamentary committee on Thursday proposed bringing fuel supplies to the Kurdistan Region under the same federal distribution and pricing system used elsewhere in Iraq, as shortages continue to drive long queues at filling stations across the country.”
https://shafaq.com/amp/en/Kurdistan/Iraqi-panel-proposes-Kurdistan-fuel-overhaul-amid-shortages
“Turkey warns Greece-Cyprus-Israel power cable needs Ankara’s approval…
“Greece rejected Ankara’s claim. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said last week that the surveys would resume “soon.” The dispute centers on sections of the Crete-Cyprus route that Ankara considers part of its continental shelf, based on its 2019 maritime delimitation agreement with Libya.”
“Netanyahu blames ‘juvenile delinquents’ for violence in occupied West Bank.
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu downplayed settler violence in the occupied West Bank, blaming it on ‘juvenile delinquents’. He also said Israel ‘pummelled’ Hezbollah and broke its spirit, as he addressed the UN General Assembly.”
“Gaza suffers world’s worst ever economic crisis: UN…
“”The collapse of the economy of Gaza is the world’s most severe economic crisis on record,” said Pedro Manuel Moreno, acting secretary-general of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). “It has wiped out decades of development and generated an acute economic crisis for its people,” he told reporters in Geneva…”
https://www.afp.com/de/node/3843448
“Saudi Grand Mufti tells troops to be ready to sacrifice their lives fighting Houthis.
“The rare and strongly worded message by Saudi Grand Mufti Sheikh Saleh Fawzan Al-Fawzan was addressed to soldiers stationed at the country’s borders and drew heavily on Quranic verses and recorded sayings of the Prophet Muhammad related to sacrifice and struggle in defence of God.”
“France to Send Soldiers to Saudi Arabia to Help Secure Energy Sites…
“France will send “soldiers, radars and defense systems” to help secure energy infrastructure in the coastal city of Yanbu, according to an agreement the two countries sealed on Thursday, President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview on the public broadcaster France 2.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/world/middleeast/france-saudi-arabia-red-sea-yemen-houthis.html
“Yemen’s civil war returns and overwhelms hospitals with ‘a very dangerous situation’…
“Some health centers are turning pregnant women and others in need away to focus on trauma patients. Vulnerable children are filling incubators and sharing beds. Millions of people are affected by the fighting backed by two of the Middle East’s biggest powers as Iran-backed Houthis advance against government forces supported by Saudi Arabia.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/yemen-houthis-aden-doctors-without-borders-god-b3056152.html
“Fighting widens across Ethiopia as Tigray clashes escalate…
“The intensification came days after seven armed movements from across Ethiopia, including the TPLF, announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, which committed itself to removing Abiy’s government.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/24/fighting-widens-across-ethiopia-as-tigray-clashes-escalate
“Collapsing currency and inflation leave families struggling in Sudan.
“…conflict has led to a plunge in the value of the Sudanese pound and rising costs for transportation and essential goods. Those aren’t just abstract economic indicators for Aisha: they’re reflected in the widening gap between what she earns and what her family needs each month.”
“‘Peace remains only a promise’ for millions in eastern DR Congo, General Assembly hears…
“Against a backdrop of decades of violent insecurity and mass displacement in the resource-rich eastern region of the vast country – where a deadly Ebola outbreak is also spreading – Judith Suminwa insisted on Wednesday that few other situations “illustrate so painfully the gap between international commitments and [people’s] lived reality”. “
https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/09/1168422
“Tunisia fuel strike highlights growing economic and political anger…
“The union action coincides with mounting public anger across Tunisia over recurrent electricity and water outages, rising prices and medicine shortages. More than five years after President Kais Saied suspended parliament and began ruling by decree, old grievances are resurfacing…”
“Jihadist expansion destabilizes coastal West Africa.
“West Africa’s coastal states are undergoing a fundamental transformation as the crisis that has long defined the landlocked Sahel expands southward. With direct, porous borders with key Sahelian states such as Mali and Burkina Faso… the West African region seems poised to become the next jihadist-related conflict hotspot.”
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/jihadist-expansion-west-africa/
“Nigeria busts another Mexican cartel-linked meth lab…
“An AFP investigation published on Thursday revealed that Mexican cartels are setting up operations in parts of Africa — including South Africa and Nigeria — to feed the demand for drugs in Europe, Southeast Asia and Oceania.”
https://www.arabnews.com/world/nigeria-busts-another-mexican-cartel-linked-meth-lab-3002952
“Javier Milei has condemned the UN as he warned that Argentina would take “matters into our own hands” in its dispute with Britain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands.
“In a caustic speech at the general assembly in New York, the Argentinian president criticised the UN for being ineffective when it came to the long-running tensions over the British overseas territory…”
“Argentina’s poverty rises to 32 percent under Milei with more pain forecast…
“Extreme poverty — where households cannot afford basic food needs — also rose from 6.3 to 7.5 percent… For many who remain employed, their wages have struggled to keep up with the rising cost of basic goods and services.”
“Peru faces hearing over threats to uncontacted Indigenous groups in the Amazon…
“The court will hold a hearing on Sept. 24 and 25 in Montevideo, Uruguay, about whether the state failed to adequately protect the groups from extractive industries encroaching on their land, including inside the Madre de Dios Territorial Reserve.”
“‘You can’t just bet everything on exports’: as its gas runs out, is Bolivia doomed to repeat history?
“In the markets of La Paz, some imported staples have now doubled in price… Bolivia’s decades-long reliance on gas is driving the crisis. A failure to discover new fields, coupled with costly subsidies and capital flight, has pushed the economy into a tailspin.”
“US weighs new limits on Cuban travel at the UN as Havana decries Trump’s economic squeeze…
“Even as a sizable Cuban delegation was approved to come to the U.N. General Assembly this week, the State Department is now weighing “strict controls” on the officials who plan to return next month for an annual U.N. vote on the decadeslong U.S. economic embargo on Cuba.”
“Delcy Rodríguez poses with Trump in New York as Maduro languishes in jail nearby.
“Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, has celebrated a “historic” meeting with Donald Trump in New York, posing for a smiley photo with the US president, less than nine months after he ordered the abduction of her boss, Nicolás Maduro.”
“Oracle’s ‘force majeure’ notice raises questions about the company’s ability to deliver on AI data centers.
“Oracle’s move to protect itself against a potential delay for its flagship AI data center project has Wall Street questioning whether the company can deliver the capacity needed to support its AI business.”
“Oracle credit default swaps hit record high as AI debt worries mount.
“5-year credit default swaps (CDS) hit record highs as aggressive, debt-financed artificial intelligence infrastructure spending fuels mounting credit market anxiety… Widening CDS spreads impact broader tech hyperscalers including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta.”
“‘Eat the rich, save the planet’: climate protesters call out big tech’s disconnect from reality.
“Datacenters require significant amounts of water to function and an immense amount of energy to power, often using fossil fuels, bringing pollution into communities. Organizers are calling for more datacenter moratoriums and stronger commitments to protect water access and to block fossil fuels.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/24/climate-protesters-ai
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
“Datacenters require significant amounts of water to function and an immense amount of energy to power, often using fossil fuels, bringing pollution into communities. Organizers are calling for more datacenter moratoriums and stronger commitments to protect water access and to block fossil fuels.”
The same applies to the servers containing the protest selfies those “organizers” are posting on social media, either to embellish their applications to elite universities or to round out their résumés as NGO and think tank careerists.
Their response to this criticism would be something like – that can run on ethical green energy, also something-something degrowth. Which actually means – we don’t care whether our solutions work, what matters is convincing ourselves that they do, passing judgment without fear of being judged in turn, and otherwise getting on with our suburbanite lives.
Just in case anyone needs corroboration:
https://www.azonano.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=6658
Semiconductor fabrication facilities (fabs) are among the most energy-intensive facilities in the world. According to a study published in Water Cycle, the semiconductor industry consumed 149 billion kWh in 2021- enough to power a metropolis of over 25 million people for a year.
And that’s just at the tippy top of the value/supply chain. By what value should that figure be multiplied to account for the whole globalized shebang, including direct? No one knows, very few want to.
Also current data center use for AI is 10-20%. The usual projections have that climbing to 50% of all use by 2030, along with an explosion of total capacity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9amakfmTHs
You have to be a black-belt 10th Dan doomer to have reached the point where you see industrial civilisation as inherently unsustainable and believe there is nothing we can do to alter our systemic trajectory, Jupiviv, so I don’t really begrudge these activists their angry placard waving, even if a little hypocrisy is baked into the cake.
You don’t have to go as far as industrial civ being unsustainable to see the hypocrisy in turning AI into the whipping boy of tech/IT. I wish there were some actual whipping going on, it’d mean I could finally buy another 64 gb stick of DDR5 memory without paying 5x the price I bought my current one.
If debt is a call on future energy then we don’t have enough proved oil, gas and accessible coal to cover the principal let alone any interest. So how does this end, because I have no idea, except my guess is not very pleasantly.
Occasionally coming across some truly deranged and ugly rantings in various comments sections in MSM, often associated with climate denial and right wing politics, makes me increasingly think the the end cannot come soon enough. We evolved to keep all the ugliness in check, to not hide behind anonymity, to treat all our close neighbours as likely relatives, to manage or expunge psychopaths. We can’t or don’t do do any of that now.
Each step in technology actually makes us less human, less happy and really rather unpleasant (at best). Let’s leave it for the more beautiful, less fraught sand frantic, and less entitled sea otters, gibbons, wasps, green tree pythons, brown trout, eels (the way they the way they survived despite continental drift’s best efforts is awesome) – to name a few of my favourites.
100% on all, George.
Not pleasantly, for sure. A friend told me she is seeing discussion on her local social media forums about increasing displays of anger. And another friend age 80 said both she and her husband have been verbally accosted each of them separately in the past few days, completely unprovoked.
To me it’s heartbreaking that we have already decimated wildlife populations and the world we are leaving them will wipe out the vast majority of those remaining.
Today’s thread is another 😱😱😱
Someone I follow who is well versed in economics said “”There will be little or no warning when led by government bonds financial markets collapse.”
Panopticon has often said similar.
Sure looks like something will break soon. How it unfolds after that? Who knows. We’ll find out.
George, a psychologist friend tells me she and her colleagues call it “The Age of Rage.” I spend altogether too much time on X – really a hideous window into our tribal madness, but very addictive.
As to how this ends, for anyone who hasn’t read it, David Korowicz’s Trade Off paper explains how a financial crisis morphs into an irreversible supply-chain crisis. His theoretical scenario looks at a disorderly default in the Eurozone (France currently looking like a good candidate):
“We consider one scenario to give a practical dimension to understanding supply-chain contagion: a break-up of the Euro and an intertwined systemic banking crisis. Simple argument and modelling will point to the likelihood of a food security crisis within days in the directly affected countries and an initially exponential spread of production failures across the world beginning within a week.
“This will reinforce and spread financial system contagion. It is also argued that the longer the crisis goes on, the greater the likelihood of its irreversibility. This could be in as little as three weeks.”
https://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Trade-Off1.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBNERd5N8vc
Hahahahahahaha He got to the punch line pretty quickly. It took only about 14 minutes.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cr89jjwy4nqpo
One big huge financial scandal back by abu Dubai oil money. Nothing to see here move along. Another scandals will come tomorrow
Heather, this is all over the news here but I must confess I do not fully understand Man City’s impropriety here. Some of the details are opaque.
One for tomorrow. Pan?
UK shares findings of damning climate crisis national security report suppressed under Starmer
He also announced £330m for the Global Environment Facility, the main international fund for protecting nature, that will go towards protecting forests, oceans and other critical ecosystems in developing countries.
The closed-door meeting among foreign ministers was convened after Miliband made a public speech on Monday at the UN general assembly that touched on the links between the climate and national security. Soon after taking office in July, the former energy secretary told the Guardian he would put the climate at the heart of UK foreign policy.
On Wednesday night, Miliband said: “The countries fit for the future will be those that see climate and nature as intrinsic to economic and national security. Countries that anticipate risks and invest in resilience before crises hit.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/sep/23/uk-climate-crisis-national-security-report-suppressed-starmer-ed-miliband
Thanks, Mad Hatter. I did in fact lead with it.