Huge thanks to August’s sponsor, who wishes to remain anonymous. At his request, I’m sharing a link to his brief but fascinating essay about Shakespeare’s The Tempest and the origins of Britain’s enslavement of Africans. He welcomes feedback in the comments section.
“The wheat war has begun, and it could trigger a revolution…
“A combination of intensive military blockades in the Black Sea, a major geopolitical choke point closure in the Middle East, and severe weather anomalies have pushed the global food supply chain to a dangerous tipping point.
“History shows that sudden spikes in staple food prices are uniquely volatile catalysts capable of bringing down governments and triggering widespread political revolution.”
“War and climate change drive surge in global shipping costs.
“Global shipping costs have reached record highs due to a combination of geopolitical conflicts, such as the Middle East crisis affecting the Strait of Hormuz, and climate-driven disruptions like the Panama Canal drought… stoking fears of increased inflation.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2fb7f9b7-58dc-4909-94fa-8e753b7be47d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Hormuz Tanker Traffic Slows to a Trickle.
“Tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz slowed further over the weekend, maintaining upward pressure on oil prices. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $88.62 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $82.18 per barrel.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Hormuz-Tanker-Traffic-Slows-to-a-Trickle.html
“US oil reserves are so low amid Trump’s Iran war the caverns holding them could be damaged…
“Concerns over the physical limits of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve center on the unique geology of its storage network. The crude is held within 60 salt caverns thousands of feet below ground at four sites across Texas and Louisiana.”
“Diesel desperation is mounting globally…
“S&P estimates that refineries worldwide processed 7.5 million barrels per day less crude last month than the same period in 2025. A separate International Energy Agency analysis out this morning also tracks an extremely steep drop in how much crude that refineries are processing.”
https://www.axios.com/2026/08/12/diesel-prices-iran-russia-ukraine
“World’s largest carmakers seek to avert motor oil crisis…
“After getting through the early months of the war, carmakers have now run out of inventories of high-quality base oils for engine oil that the US and Europe had largely sourced from the Middle East… Carmakers including Volkswagen, Stellantis and Toyota are turning to new blends…”
https://www.ft.com/content/161ee092-d2b6-4375-a853-e7a6fbee60e2?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Bonds Face a Bigger Threat Than the Fed as Global Rates Climb…
“As investors debate whether and when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, market expectations for further tightening are building around the world — and spelling trouble for bonds.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/bonds-face-bigger-threat-fed-120000846.html
“RBA sounds alarm on states’ debt binge.
“The Reserve Bank of Australia’s economists are privately worried that ballooning state debts could constrain governments’ ability to respond to future economic shocks and make the banking and superannuation systems vulnerable to a sudden sell-off in state bonds.”
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rba-sounds-alarm-on-states-debt-binge-20260817-p60ox2
“Japan’s 10-Year Bond Yield Hit A Three-Decade High.
“Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield touched 2.925% – a three-decade high last seen in September 1996 – as global bond selling picked up and investors weighed uncertainty around the Bank of Japan’s next rate moves.”
https://finimize.com/content/japans-10-year-bond-yield-hit-a-three-decade-high
“Scott Bessent fired a currency bazooka, but global finance still looks like a ‘giant Jenga tower’ propped up by a Japanese yen that’s in deep trouble…
““Now traders are watching the ‘yen carry trade,’ where cheap yen borrowing funds bets on higher-yielding assets worldwide, and wondering if it’s about to blow up,” Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni wrote in a note on Tuesday.”
“Private credit under strain as troubled loans swell.
“Strain is spreading across private credit portfolios, with some of the largest funds taking writedowns and warning about problem loans as the industry faces its biggest challenge in almost a decade.”
https://www.ft.com/content/67acde0d-4154-4332-b33b-2d03d3a86007?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Global stocks have NEVER been this large relative to the world economy.
“Global market cap-to-world GDP ratio surged to a record 143.5%, officially surpassing the 2021 meme stock frenzy peak. This ratio has risen nearly +50 percentage points since April 2025. By comparison, before the Great Financial Crisis, the ratio peaked at ~120%.”
[Global Markets Investor]
https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/2088994692008378442
“This chart shows the stock market is ready to crash. Wall Street on alert despite claims the AI boom upends old rules…
“For all intents and purposes, the Shiller price to earnings ratio is the canary in the coal mine for global financial crashes. And right now it’s blinking red… The last time it was this high – August 2000 – was in the throes of the dotcom bubble collapse, when it was hitting record highs when applied to the S&P 500…”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/08/17/this-chart-shows-the-stock-market-is-ready-to-crash
“The money investors borrow to trade in the U.S. stock market is at an all-time high.
“Money that investors borrow to trade in the stock market is called margin debt. This debt is now above $1.5 trillion, 50% higher than a year ago. Could this spell trouble for the U.S. economy?“
“Is US drifting towards ‘silent default’?
“…A sovereign default, in which a country fails to pay its creditors, is a highly unlikely scenario in the United States. The risk of a silent default, however, isn’t, because it is more subtle. How? Investors continue to receive interest payouts, but inflation eats away the purchasing power of the money, leaving creditors with a weaker real return.”
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2624265/is-us-drifting-towards-silent-default
“US bond market jitters spark UK economy recession warning.
“The UK economy could be plunged into a recession an “order of magnitude” greater than recent financial crises if America’s borrowing costs continue to climb over the rest of the year, a group of leading City analysts have warned.”
https://www.cityam.com/us-bond-market-jitters-spark-uk-economy-recession-warning/
“New UK cost of living crisis looms with soaring energy bills forecast to lift inflation…
“The Bank of England is considering raising interest rates from as early as September in response to fears over stubbornly high inflation becoming entrenched in the economy… Reports also emerged overnight that the water regulator Ofwat was considering plans to impose “surge pricing” on water usage during droughts.”
“Europe’s Gas Storage Crunch Deepens Ahead of Heating Season.
“With less than three full months left until the start of heating season in much of Europe, the issue of gas inventories is becoming increasingly pressing. Current inventory levels are at the lowest in 17 years, and supply available for purchase is tighter than it was back in 2022. Yet Europe needs to start buying gas now—or risk shortages.”
“NATO jets scrambled as suspected Russian drone shot down in Romanian airspace.
“A NATO F-18 fighter jet operating on an air policing mission has shot down a drone that unlawfully entered Romanian airspace, marking the fourth unmanned craft brought down over the country this year, Romania’s defence ministry announced on Sunday.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/romania-russia-drone-nato-jets-b3033793.html
“Ukraine left exposed as Patriot launchers run empty.
“Kyiv’s air-defence crews were left helpless during recent waves of Russian ballistic missile attacks for one simple reason: their Patriot interceptor launchers were empty… Ukrainian officials said the country had already spent the small number of interceptors provided by Washington in recent weeks…”
https://www.ft.com/content/6448b0af-f2ed-4067-b814-73f41b56fa78?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Ukraine strikes Russia’s only Soyuz rocket plant with Flamingo missiles…
“The strike is the latest in a series of long-range Ukrainian attacks using the domestically developed Flamingo cruise missile, part of a broader campaign targeting Russian military-industrial and energy infrastructure deep inside the country.”
“China’s new yuan loans posted a record contraction in July, missing forecasts as seasonal factors and weak household credit demand weighed on lending in the world’s second-largest economy.
“New yuan loans were down by 340 billion yuan ($50.4 billion) in July – the largest decline on record and the second contraction this year…”
https://www.aol.com/articles/china-july-bank-loans-contract-093218000.html
“China and Russia Are Pressuring Japan on Two Fronts. Is a Pacific Pincer Taking Shape?
“Putin’s Kuril landing is not a bilateral Russia-Japan sovereignty dispute. It is the northern half of a coordinated Sino-Russian pressure campaign on Tokyo — timed to the same waters a joint Chinese-Russian flotilla patrolled weeks earlier, and confirmed within twenty-four hours by Beijing’s own explicit endorsement of Moscow’s claim.”
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/08/17/china-russia-pressure-japan-pacific-pincer/
“Japanese minister visits shrine to war dead, angering China, South Korea…
“Japan’s neighbours have long seen the site and the regular visits by senior politicians as symbolic of the country’s failure to atone for the atrocities its forces committed. Koizumi, who has long been a regular visitor to Yasukuni, left the shrine without responding to reporters’ questions.”
“South Korean military fires warning shots after North Korean troops cross border…
“The incident occurred in the eastern part of the Korean Peninsula. Several North Korean soldiers crossed the military demarcation line, prompting South Korean troops to issue warning shots in accordance with established operational procedures.”
https://www.azernews.az/region/262452.html
“Trump says US to reduce military drills with South Korea after it stayed out of Iran war.
“President Donald Trump has said the US will “substantially reduce” joint military exercises with South Korea, citing his “very good relationship” with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un. He also noted on Truth Social that South Korea had recently declined to join the US in the “denuclearisation” of Iran.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2lll7zvn0o
“‘When will this stop’, Cambodia protests Thailand’s continued border violations and land allocation.
“The Cambodian Government has lodged a strong protest against Thailand’s continued violations of Cambodia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity along the Cambodia-Thailand border.”
“Myanmar’s banks buckle under junta rule as the kyat loses three-quarters of its value.
“Cash-strapped depositors, a collapsing currency and lenders shut out of the global financial system – Myanmar’s banks are being ground down by more than five years of military rule. The economy shrank 2% in the fiscal year to March and consumer prices rose 24.6% year on year in April…”
“Five years into Taliban rule, Afghanistan plunges into a state of collapse – visualised…
“The fighting that once dominated international headlines has largely faded from view, but for millions of Afghans the crisis has only deepened. Nearly half the population requires humanitarian aid and more than 14 million people are expected to face acute food insecurity this year…”
“How the US could squeeze Iran with economic isolation – and the risks involved…
“The US could threaten secondary sanctions on any entity doing even limited business with Iran… [Howver, such a move could put additional pressure on] companies and financial institutions in countries around Iran’s borders – including US partners like Turkey – that maintain significant commercial ties with Tehran.”
“Iran has offered its soldiers and citizens $30,000 (£22,000) for killing or capturing any American troops, with the reward doubled if a woman completes the mission…
“Furthermore, the weapon used in the operation will be purchased by the army at twice its market value and permanently displayed in a dedicated museum, state media reported.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/08/16/iranians-offered-30k-to-kill-us-troops/
“Iraq sets up new border command to prevent attacks on Saudi Arabia.
“The Badia Operations Command was formed after PMF units withdrew from parts of Al-Muthanna and Najaf provinces, leaving Iraqi forces responsible for the security of the desert region.”
https://middle-east-online.com/en/iraq-sets-new-border-command-prevent-attacks-saudi-arabia
“Arab Persian Gulf states frustrated with Trump’s handling of war on Iran: Report…
“The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are now unequivocally expressing their aggravation to the Trump administration, raising grave concern about the cost of risk in hosting large US military installations on their territory, the report added.”
“Syria’s wells run dry, old grievances run deep.
“A water dispute outside Damascus is testing Syria’s new authorities as worsening shortages, competing local demands and grievances inherited from Assad-era governance collide in two neighboring towns.”
https://syriadirect.org/syrias-wells-run-dry-old-grievances-run-deep/
“Israeli military prepares for possible escalation in Lebanon.
“The Israeli army is planning for a possible escalation in Lebanon that would last for a number of days, according to Israel’s Channel 12… “The Israeli political leadership has not approved some operations proposed by the army in recent days in response to Hezbollah’s activities, in an attempt not to affect the course of the negotiations,” Channel 12 reported. “
“Ben-Gvir calls for killing of ’30 to 40′ Palestinians in Gaza nightly in taped interview with former hostage.
“In a taped interview, the far-right national security minister also advocated for encouraging the mass emigration of the Gaza Strip, saying he views the territory as entirely Israeli.”
“Houthis launch new attacks on al-Makha and Marib as Yemen conflict escalates…
“Meanwhile, the Yemeni military said it launched 181 operations against Houthi positions in several governorates on Saturday and Sunday, killing and wounding dozens of members of the group.”
“Somalia’s federal troops and armed opposition groups clashed in heavy fighting in Baidoa city centre on Monday, a local resident and an army officer told Reuters.
“”Militias loyal to the former Baidoa president entered Baidoa from two sides, challenging two battalions of federal military. Fighting has intensified now,” Farah Nur, a shopkeeper in the city, told Reuters.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/somalia-federal-troops-armed-opposition-clash-baidoa-city-2026-08-17/
“War in the North: A point of no return [Ethiopia].
“The country has not recovered from the devastation of the 2020–2022 conflict. To return to large-scale fighting now would not be a continuation of an old crisis; it would be the creation of a deeper and potentially irreversible one.”
https://capitalethiopia.com/2026/08/16/war-in-the-north-a-point-of-no-return/
“Is Sudan’s Bloody War Reaching a Tipping Point?
“Sudan’s civil war has grown well beyond national conflict — it threatens to explode into a greater war across the Horn of Africa and Red Sea. The SAF military and RSF rebels receive vital support from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, respectively, enabling both groups to slaughter innocents.”
“Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo now deadliest in country’s history…
“On Friday the UN warned that “Ebola is winning in the Democratic Republic of the Congo” and said the epidemic was now killing one person every 30 minutes… There are no approved vaccines or treatments for the rare Bundibugyo strain of the virus that is responsible for the current surge in cases.”
“Large swathes of Libya, including the capital Tripoli, were plunged into darkness overnight following an explosion near the Zawiya power plant, prompting an emergency response to the mass outage.
“The incident follows a series of unclaimed drone attacks targeting fuel tanks, oil facilities and other energy infrastructure in western Libya.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/zawiya-station-explosion-causes-power-outage-across-west-libya
“Lithium in the Sahel: how armed groups are exploiting the global scramble for the critical mineral…
“Across this vast region, armed groups are finding new ways to profit from the expanding lithium trade. Over 40,000 tonnes of lithium are already mined from African rock each year for international consumers. This figure is set to rise to an estimated 500,000 tonnes by as early as 2030.”
“Bread Rations. Endless Blackouts. How Much More Can Cubans Endure?
“…Now Cubans wait for everything. They wait for imported food and over-the-counter medicines sent by relatives abroad. They wait for electricity that returns for only an hour or two each day or for a feeble breeze in the oppressive summer heat that might allow their children a couple of hours of sleep.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/17/opinion/cuba-trump-rubio-venezuela.html
“Between cartel threats and US airstrikes, Ecuador fishermen have nowhere to hide.
“Onshore, drug cartels have turned the small ports of Ecuador’s Manabi province into a cocaine-trafficking hub, extorting local fishermen who are prized for their navigation skills… Offshore, the violence comes without warning – from U.S. airstrikes on alleged “narco-terrorists.””
“El Nino could wipe out over $5 trillion from global economy…
“Researchers warn that the world may be facing financial losses far exceeding those caused by previous record-breaking El Nino episodes, including the devastating 1997-98 event that erased an estimated $5.7 trillion from the global economy.”
“Climate anxiety is fueling 90s nostalgia…
“Vinyl record and CD sales are through the roof, telecom companies are recreating dumbphones, and lo-fi digital and disposable cameras are making a comeback, along with Pokémon, Furbys, and Bratz—the latter thanks to Kylie Jenner’s new line a couple of years ago.”
https://www.wbay.com/2026/08/16/climate-anxiety-is-fueling-90s-nostalgia/
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
“A combination of intensive military blockades in the Black Sea, a major geopolitical choke point closure in the Middle East, and severe weather anomalies have pushed the global food supply chain to a dangerous tipping point.”
And this is why degrowth is such a hopelessly middle class concept. It’s one thing to obsess over the minutiae of one’s own consumption, arbitrarily identifying luxuries and excesses to surgically remove. Quite another to confront waste and excess generated by necessity at the structural level where production and consumption exist in a dialectical unity.
What is the degrowth answer to “not enough food” – let them eat less cake, or more relevantly, less smartphones and fast fashion? Is the production of smartphones/fashion in and of itself the primary cause of climate change, war, net energy decline? Those would be the ultimate causes of a potentially devastating food crisis.
Many degrowthers won’t even acknowledge net energy collapse, or worse call you a CIA plant for even mentioning it. To them it’s all about what they consider to be needless consumption and once that’s over all the other minor problems will fix themselves. They don’t have an answer to collapse especially now that it’s playing out before our eyes. Because it was never meant to be more than a crutch for the rich experiencing shopping guilt or the not-so-rich languishing in buyer’s remorse. But it ain’t the 90s no more and yuppie consumer guilt shall soon be the quaint tragic echo of a long dead civilization…
https://www.nytimes.com/1985/06/28/nyregion/retreat-of-the-yuppies-the-tide-now-turns-amid-guilt-and-denial.html
Btw the point I am making with that 1985 NYT article about yuppies – superficial anti-consumerism is as old as consumerism itself and a symptom of it. And it never works. What strikes me is how candid people were back then about the hypocrisy of it.
”On the whole, in spite of the pejorative aspect, yuppies still take a masochistic glee in being yuppies,” says Jonathan Silver, 27, a financial analyst. ”If you can in fact think about yourself in this way, it says something about your own achievement record and success rate, and that’s an important and valuable thing.”
Wow. Can you imagine a 20 something trust fund radical today, posting something like that on twitter? That self-criticism of their own privilege is a status symbol in itself, because the privilege has to exist in the first place. And we think we are so self-aware and woke compared to past generations!
I have never been called a CIA plant, Jupiviv. 😂 Professor Julia K. Steinberger did call me “smug” once though, and I’ve been accused of eco-fascism.
Honestly, I hate debating with Green Transition enthusiasts and de-growthers though, when I don’t have any good alternative solutions to offer; like I’m some Captain Buzzkill.
When I did engage in the odd tit-for-tat on X back in the day it was in the devious and cynical hope that it would boost this site’s readership, but it didn’t do much of that.
Every barrel of oil cracked to build wind turbines and solar panels produces the fuels we burn: you either burn them or dump them into rivers like they used to do before ICE’s were built. The green economy does exactly what its predecessor, the green revolution did: dramatically INcreases the use of fossil fuels in the guise of eco-friendliness. After all, who can argue with the accomplishment of feeding millions more people or shutting down filthy coal-burning power plants? Optics ain’t everything but they sure are convincing.
Rob, right. Solutions can look great in their discrete domains…
The hilarious thing about the cornucopians and green transition enthusiasts wind socks is watching them demand everyone facilitate their non-existent comprehension of collapse. Like the world is their personal care-home.
The Telegraph article on wheat does not have a single mention of El Nino and its likely near term impact on food supply and prices. Is even a hint of anthropogenic climate change forbidden now in right wing circles?
I’m pretty sure I somehow saw a Reuters article (normally behind a paywall) that said the last 100 million barrels in oil strategic reserve could now never be accessed, so there is no “could be” question about the damage.
My simple minded view of stock prices is that they should represent the best estimate for the net present value of the company. With all sorts of energy and resource shortages just years away most companies are closer to worthless than their current valuation on that criterion.
I can only read the abstract on the Science article on El Nino economic impacts but it seems to be saying costs will be much higher than 5 trillion.
George, I think this must be the article you were referencing:
“The U.S. Government Accountability Office warned in May that SPR’s infrastructure was deteriorating fast and that a quarter of reserves is no longer available… This implies that over 100 million barrels have become impossible to release, according to analysts from Rapidan Energy.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/are-global-oil-stocks-big-enough-weather-another-six-months-us-iran-war-2026-08-13/
I’ll count us lucky if we reach the end of next year and still have the luxury of trying to quantify the fall-out from this El Nino in financial terms.
The reserve has no tanks anywhere in it. It is 60 caverns dissolved out of salt domes thousands of feet beneath Texas and Louisiana, at sites like Bryan Mound and Bayou Choctaw.
To get the oil out, operators pump fresh water into the bottom of each cavern. The water is heavier, so it floats the crude up and out through the wells.
But fresh water dissolves salt on its way to saturation.
So every withdrawal eats the walls of the container.
An excellent post on SPR .
https://x.com/Ric_RTP/status/2088985585943753113
Thanks, Ravi.
“One Sandia engineer summed the whole problem up by saying geology takes over and engineering stops mattering.”
Human ingenuity bumping up against intractable physical realities is going to be a bit of a theme now, I fear.
In the 1970s oil shock car-owners had the gasoline drained or siphoned from their gastanks by thieves.
I predict we will soon find vehicles not only having been emptied of fuel overnight, but additionally emptied of the engine’s motor oil.
If you have your oil changed at a dealer or quick lube shop–> remove the windshield sticker that advertises to thieves that fresh, clean new motor oil has been recently added.
Buy an extra oil drain plug because the thieves will take yours.
My 1970s story: I was renting an apartment in a big complex, so my vehicle was not close. I awoke to find my pickup on blocks with tires removed, spare tire too. Old pickups had the gas filler inlet just outside the cab. The thieves took a pipe wrench to twist off my locking gas cap, then siphoned my full tank dry.
An oil & filter change could soon cost you $500 USD. Remove the sticker, keep a log book.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob, here in the UK, people seem more inclined to fill up at petrol stations then do a runner.
“Forecourt Eye said the value of the stolen fuel is estimated to have risen by 48% compared with the five months before the war – to reach an estimated daily average of £194,000.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8mrrlkjppo
Everything is a complete nightmare this morning between the ai insanity and iran war lies and climate change lies and now it appears spacex and many companies will self sabotage themselves. Brics and minifigs saga of a company is completely disgusting how they treat customers and how they run their business but its not any different from musk and the ai bros. Meanwhile our healthcare system goes more into the toilet. I am surprised anyone can get meds now. Or that the hospitals even function. Flock cameras are being sabotaged since the surveillance state is evil and needs oil to run but lets destroy everything on the planet. Voting is worthless our political system is worthless. The entire thing is going down like the titanic.
Heather, I agree. The overall picture is not a rosy one.
That’s quite an understatement, Pan. 😉
https://robertlowrey.blogspot.com/2022/03/repost-all-we-love-is-war.html
At the end of a NYT’s article on Greenland, they quote an inhabitant: “You have to think about the future and the money,” he explained. “Maybe Greenland could become like Dubai. That’s my dream.”
Dubai is baking to death in the 50+ degree heat, the urban island effect keeping temps > 35C all night. The dream is now a hellish nightmare. dream on ….
https://robertlowrey.blogspot.com/2021/02/does-anybody-know-what-we-are-living-for.html
Since economics & numbers are intertwined, here’s a growing number that no one pays attention to.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
“Denial of reality, into extinction” is the new global motto.