Huge thanks to August’s sponsor, who wishes to remain anonymous. At his request, I’m sharing a link to his brief but fascinating essay about Shakespeare’s The Tempest and the origins of Britain’s enslavement of Africans. He welcomes feedback in the comments section.
“What’s Behind the Heat Wave Scorching Huge Parts of the World?
“Summer heat is about to go from bad to worse, as multiple regions around the world face another round of record-breaking temperatures. A combination of El Niño, unusually hot ocean waters, and jet stream changes is sending temperatures soaring in the US, Europe, and Asia.”
https://www.wired.com/story/world-heat-wave-el-nino-to-blame/
“Strong El Nino ‘adding fuel to a planet already on fire’, warns UN chief…
“Pacific waters driving the El Nino have never been this warm this early, he said, with a new forecast by the WMO finding sea-surface temperatures now averaging 3C (5.4F) above normal… “Taken together, that risks shattering every seasonal record – and driving even more severe effects worldwide,” said Guterres. “We are in uncharted territory.””
“In the latest CFSv2 run for the Nino 3.4 region, there is now no model run that peaks below 4.1°C [mean is roughly 4.4C].
“Fortunately, cities and local governments around the world are already preparing for what could be the most significant global climate event in 150 years. Oh, wait.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2082965505502249060
“Sea surface temperatures are substantially warming around the entire Arctic Ocean in July during the satellite-era. This is especially large in the Kara Sea. Note the blue shading mostly corresponds to areas of sea ice.
“Data by OISSTv2.1.” [Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3mrsnx3ppec2h
“England and Wales are on course for their driest July since records began 190 years ago.
“The Met Office reports that England has seen just 5.6mm of rainfall up to 30 July – just 8% of its long-term meteorological average for the month and less than half of the previous record of 13.4mm set in 1911.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cddjznv86p3o
“‘It’s too fast, too big’: speed of climate crisis is devastating crops, say farmers [UK]…
“Prof Pete Falloon, the Met Office’s science lead on food security, who is advising the government on the resilience of our food systems, says a movement to more regenerative approaches, better flood management, water storage and using crop varieties that are more heat or drought tolerant is essential.”
“Why are so many dead bumblebees appearing on sidewalks? [UK and EU]
“Bumblebees naturally have short lives, but extreme heat and human activity are making survival harder. Pesticides can poison bees or destroy the flowers they depend on, while habitat loss leaves them with fewer safe places to live and feed.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/07/260727012134.htm
“The month of July 2026 ends today. Its climate summary confirms the historic nature of this July [France].
“In 1st place for the hottest (+3.8°C/average); in 3rd place for the driest (-68% rain/average) after 2022 and 2020; in 2nd place for the sunniest (+35%/average) after 2022.” [La Chaîne Météo]
https://x.com/lachainemeteo/status/2083120295074775474
“Bordeaux, France, has now recorded more days above 40°C in 2026 alone than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when observations began) to 2025.
“This is deeply shocking.” [Nahel Belgherze]
https://x.com/WxNB_/status/2083141878845784286
“Climate change fuels record-breaking fires in Spain’s hottest July on record…
“The agency’s data, shared with EL PAÍS, indicates that the average daily temperature in July in mainland Spain was 25.7ºC. This is 2.6ºC hotter than what is considered normal, taking the period between 1991 and 2020 as a reference.”
“Insurers Are ‘Actively Evaluating’ New Catastrophe Risks as Europe Burns…
“Insurers, reinsurers and brokers contacted by Bloomberg are already predicting increased premiums and bigger losses tied to natural catastrophes. Importantly, they don’t see the latest bouts of extreme heat as a temporary shock, but as a long-term trend.”
“ECB official warns climate crisis poses growing threat to ‘core financial stability’…
“In an interview with the Guardian before the current devastation across Europe, Elderson said it was clear the rising frequency of natural disasters linked to global heating pose a threat to financial stability.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/aug/01/ecb-climate-wildfires-global-economy-stability
“Severe Storms Paralyze Germany Following Record 41-Degree [105.8F] Heatwave.
“A devastating sequence of severe thunderstorms, torrential rain, and massive hail has battered southern and eastern Germany, fracturing infrastructure and paralyzing transit hubs. The violent weather systems follow immediately on the heels of a record-breaking heatwave…”
https://streamlinefeed.co.ke/news/germany-severe-storms-after-41-degree-heatwave
“HISTORIC HEAT IN SWITZERLAND 39.7C [103.5F] – it ties the HIGHEST RELIABLE TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN SWITZERLAND (Grono in 2003 is not reliable-39.3C 2km apart).
“Many all time records.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2082899559852724280
“Alps hydro inflow nears record low, no relief in sight – analyst.
“Hydropower inflow in Europe’s Alpine region is “close to an all-time low”, with no short-term relief in sight as the current dry spell was set to persist, said Montel EQ analyst Eylert Ellefsen on Thursday.”
“HOTTEST JULY DAY IN HISTORY OF AUSTRIA – 40.3C [104.5F] Wieselburg.
“71 JULY RECORDS DESTROYED, most of which are ALL TIME RECORDS… Thousands of records smashed in Czechia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Poland, Hungary…”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2083277767647416511
“Thousands lose water supply in Hungary as Paks output is cut and red warnings are issued.
“Hungary is facing mounting pressure from an unprecedented heatwave, with thousands of residents temporarily left without drinking water, water restrictions introduced in several municipalities, and the Paks Nuclear Power Plant forced to reduce electricity production as the Danube reaches record-low levels.”
https://dailynewshungary.com/water-supply-lost-paks-output-cut/
“Danube drought exposes everything from shipwrecks to centuries-old projectiles…
“As the Danube recedes, more and more of the riverbed is being exposed. The situation is so extraordinary that the president of the Hungarian Cyclists’ Club, Gábor Dezső Kürti, was able to cycle along the riverbed all the way from Budapest to Vác.”
“Blazes burning with the intensity of ‘atomic bombs’: Europe enters a new era of mega fires…
“This all follows from Europe’s record-breaking fire season last year, with experts saying the continent is joining a long list of regions — from Siberia to the Amazon — which now endure back-to-back extreme fire seasons.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/29/climate/europe-wildfires-new-fire-era
“Greece orders partial evacuation of Athens suburb as wildfire burns…
“The blaze was being fanned by gale force winds that were hampering water-dropping aircraft from flying over the area. The air turbulence meant that only one helicopter was able to take on water from the sea to fight the blaze.”
“Thousands of people have been evacuated on the Greek island of Crete as wildfires fanned by strong winds menace tourist resorts and villages.
“Two firefighters died on the island on Wednesday when they became trapped while tackling a fire near Krya Vrysi in the Rethymno region. A third firefighter died on the Greek mainland, near the port town of Gytheio in the Peloponnese.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9w01781981o
“Tunisian wildfires expose failing infrastructure, community vulnerabilities…
““The fire was scorching … and came from every direction,” Abdeli told Al Jazeera. “They kept telling us there was no water to extinguish it. All they could do was evacuate us.” Some of his flock managed to escape into the surrounding hills, but Abdeli said he now has little means to keep them alive.”
“Torrential rains in one of the world’s wettest countries have caused severe flooding, leaving families homeless and thousands at risk of waterborne diseases.
“Liberia’s National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) has warned more downpours are likely in the rain-soaked West African nation in the coming weeks.”
https://standardnewswire.com/gfa-world-responds-as-floods-trigger-emergency-in-rain-lashed-liberia/
“The no-winter continues in Southern Africa with max. temperatures close to 30C [86F] on the highlands even >1500m asl and warm nights:
“Last night Minimum of 15.7C at Struisbaai was the highest ever recorded in July. And August record can start falling tomorrow…” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2083134285410673093
“The Nile is receding in Sudan. Is Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam to blame?
“Egypt and Ethiopia are fighting a proxy war inside Sudan, which makes trusting each other over a shared river a much harder task… Imagine three neighbours sharing a single water tank that sits on the property of just one of them. [One] neighbour – Ethiopia – decides how much water flows out to the other two.”
https://thearabweekly.com/nile-receding-sudan-ethiopias-renaissance-dam-blame
“Today, may God have mercy on him Aayed Dalbooh drowned in the flash flood of Wadi Kahla – Saudi Arabia.
“May God forgive him and have mercy on him and make him dwell in the spacious gardens of His Paradise.” [Arab Storms]
https://x.com/Arab_Storms/status/2083215395293659411
“Pakistan warns of urban floods in Punjab as monsoon death toll reaches 122…
“Pakistan is among countries considered most vulnerable to climate change and has experienced increasingly erratic weather in recent years, with more frequent heatwaves, droughts and extreme monsoon rainfall.”
https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2652987/pakistan
“Cloudburst Hits Kishtwar, Sweeps Away Vehicles; Schools Shut in Chenab Valley [Kashmir].
“A cloudburst struck the Chatroo area of Kishtwar district in the early hours of Saturday, triggering flash floods that are believed to have washed away several vehicles and caused damage to property, officials said.”
“Mumbai Submerged Again as Island City Records Wettest July in Five Decades.
“Relentless monsoon showers have once again brought Mumbai to a grinding halt, submerging critical infrastructure and leaving millions of commuters stranded across India’s financial capital.”
“Four killed as heavy rains unleash flash floods, landslides in Kerala [SW India]… certain areas received more than 30 cm rainfall [12 inches] within a span of eight hours.
“Bringing back memories of the catastrophic 2018 floods that inundated the state, triggered a series of landslides and left 483 dead, Central Kerala districts received extreme rainfall on Friday night which set off flashflood, landslide and devastation…”
“Cauvery Water Dispute Escalates: Karnataka Urges Tamil Nadu CM Vijay to Postpone Talks [SE India].
“…the Cauvery Water Management Authority (CWMA) ordered Karnataka to release water to Tamil Nadu. Karnataka has argued that deficient rainfall, drought conditions, and concerns over drinking water supplies make it difficult to comply with the order.”
“Death toll from floods in India’s Assam state rises to 82 [far eastern India].
““Relief camps, relief distribution centres and restoration efforts continue to support affected families as the situation steadily improves,” Disaster Management Authority said… More than 1.1 million people have been affected in the state, according to officials.”
“Multiple highways blocked across nation as landslides and floods sever transport links [Nepal].
“Persistent rainfall, landslides and flash floods have triggered severe disruptions across major national highways, stranding commuters and cutting off vital road links. Authorities strongly advise travelers to verify real-time road conditions with security agencies before embarking on journeys.”
“Authorities in northwest China’s Shaanxi and Gansu provinces issued emergency alerts and closed dozens of tourist sites on Thursday as heavy rain raised the risk of floods and landslides, state media reports showed…
“In Gansu, a landslide in a valley in early July killed 21 people. On Sunday, 10 people died after a scenic area was hit by heavy rain that triggered flash floods.”
“Massive Floods Hit Heilongjiang, China: Bridge Collapses, Railway Destroyed, Jingpo Lake Overflows [northeastern China].
“Floodwaters swept away Xiahe Bridge along National Highway G201, damaged railway foundations near Dougouzi Railway Station, inundated homes and farmland, and disrupted electricity, water supplies, internet access, and transportation in several communities.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3VZuSgvbO0
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN CHINA:
“79 records broken Today: 39.8C [103.6F] Bayantuhushuo July Hottest day. 78 stations had their July hottest night, 39 the hottest night ever. Every day of July broken dozens/hundreds of records all over China, for a total of thousands. And it will get worse!” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2083193557041426443
“South Korea records highest-ever temperature of 41.4 C [106.5F] as heatwave intensifies.
“South Korea recorded its highest temperature on Friday since modern weather observations began, as a prolonged heatwave pushed temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) for a third straight day in parts of the country.”
“Another avalanche of records in JAPAN:
“July Highest Minimums: nearly 500 records have fallen in the past few weeks an hundreds more will be smashed next days. Deadly heat 24/7 and heat indexes even >50C [122F]. Worst nightmarish heat wave in East Asia history BY FAR.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2082956373696868658
“Typhoon Dolphin Approaching Ogasawara Islands.
“Powerful Typhoon Dolphin, also known as Typhoon No. 13, is moving west-northwest at 20 kilometers per hour near Japan’s Minami-Torishima Island… there is a high possibility that the southern part of the islands will enter the typhoon’s storm-force wind zone.”
https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/general-news/20260801-341152/
“First Australian mass mortality event suspected as deadly bird flu virus rapidly escalates among native birds.
“More than 80 dead and sick birds seen on rocks off the South Australian coast are suspected to be the first mass mortality event from the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus, only six weeks after the disease arrived in Australia.”
“Scientists warn that something unusual is happening in the Southern Ocean…
“In late June, whale watchers in southwest Western Australia sounded the alarm… A week later, birdwatchers spotted a “once in a lifetime event” as large numbers of rarely seen albatrosses and petrels appeared off Australia’s east coast… Many birds were in poor condition.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/southern-ocean-heatwave-science-b3025248.html
“RECORD AGAIN IN PERU – 23.6C [74.5F] the Minimum in Piura, it breaks again its July record of Highest Minimum.
“from Tomorrow, nearly ANYWHERE on the Pacific coast from Ecuador to Chile there will be records of August hottest night, every night. The Niño doesn’t forgive.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2083219900995182670
“HISTORIC WINTER HEAT IN SOUTH AMERICA – 39.2 [102.6F] Mariscal Estigarribia is HOTTEST JULY DAY EVER RECORDED IN PARAGUAY.
“38.5 Rivadavia ARGENTINA, a new record for July. As Always, your author’s forecasts were flawless.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2083438250014732534
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN.
“Every single country from Mexico to Chile is smashing every record: Never happened anything like this. In PANAMA 36.5 David re-broke its July record; in COSTA RICA 37.1 Liberia Airport as well; COLOMBIA 41.2 [106.2F] [Valledupar.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2083092860249780533
“HISTORIC HEAT IN CUBA:
“Cuba is living the most extreme heat wave in history with records smashed every day only to be rebroken the following day. 38.8C [101.8F] Today at Camaguey not only broke its all time record but also HOTTEST JULY DAY EVER RECORDED IN CUBA.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2083319989734453368
“As sargassum seaweed piles up, Caribbean bets on boats, barriers and biofuel…
“Brian Barnes, research assistant professor at the university’s College of Marine Science, who works in the lab, told Reuters… “Before 2010 there’s nothing, and since then we’ve gone to up to 1 million metric tons over the entire area in 2011 to 40 million last year,” suggesting the seaweed could be doubling in mass every five years.”
“July shaping up to be hottest month on record in the US – and more dangerous heat is on the way.
“…dangerous heat events fueled by climate change are becoming the “new normal,” Steven Cohen, director of the sustainability management program at Columbia University, told NPR.”
“U.S. Raises Threat of Steep Water Cuts in Lower Colorado River Basin…
“Communities and farms across Arizona, Nevada and California face potentially drastic cuts in the water they can use from the Colorado River over the next decade under a plan the Trump administration published on Friday… The proposal raises the potential for complex legal battles that could play out for years…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/climate/colorado-river-basin-water-cuts.html
“The Feds Just Opened Public Lands to AI Data Centers—Starting Near Lake Mead…
“Located near Boulder City, Nevada, the proposed center comes at a time when more than 95 percent of the Colorado River Basin watershed is experiencing drought and researchers are measuring water levels in Lake Mead at historic lows.”
https://www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adventure/environment/blm-ai-data-center-lake-mead/
“Meteotsunami hits Lake Winnebago after Wisconsin tornado.
“On July 27, 2026, a tornado struck the Fox Valley area of Wisconsin, destroying a wide swath of the city of Menasha. The tornado-producing storm system also triggered a meteotsunami in neighboring Lake Winnebago.”
https://earthsky.org/earth/what-is-a-meteotsunami/
“Climate Change Is Moving Mountains.
“On geological timescales, the Earth is a dynamic place. Tectonic plates shift. Continents move. Mountains rise and fall. But during humanity’s tenure on Earth, the ground beneath our feet has largely stayed put. That stable period may now be at an end.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/2026/07/climate-change-land/688129/
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
The time will eventually arrive when you personally will have no access to FFs or electricity. Also very limited access to food & water.
Emergency supplies may be only dehydrated and ground-up cockroach flour. Will you have any propane to cook this? Or a hatchet to gather firewood in your neighborhood?
Or will circumstances force you to eat it raw?
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
The pic above of the giant South Korean splash party reminds me of the movie, ‘Don’t Look Up’.
The scene is of an even much, much larger party on the beach jubilant as the incoming meteor will kill them all mere seconds later.
I need to see that movie. Leonardo Di Caprio is always watchable.
This El Nino is starting to feel a bit like a meteorite. If these latest forecasts eventuate, I could see us having a sustained period of perhaps four or five months with mean temps over 2C.
That is going to mean 3/4C anomalies over land, and extreme weather events are going to be worse in non-linear fashion. We’re seeing too many fat-tail events at current warming. Arctic permafrost thaw in spring 2027 is a worry.
Can you imagine weeks and weeks of +40 C muggy warmth… I guess we can’t anymore cus it’s happening. But not to worry, we can still imagine muggy warmth without AC, coming soon to a collapsed society near you. I’m gonna go and dig a nice cool hole in the ground, crawl into it and never come out.
Sounds like a plan, Jupiviv. 😎
I wonder if heat index levels are going to be so high in the tropics with this El Nino that there are instances of crops like bananas and coffee going unharvested.
Thank you, Harry, for your great work. Warm regards, Lyndie
Lyndie, you are welcome! Thank you for the kind words.
Let the games commence! Hartman Colorado runs out of water, says Heather B [comment moved across from Guest Essay thread].
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/01/hartman-colorado-town-abandoned
I imagine there will be more. Sounds like it’s too late for Hartman, but El Nino might help ease the drought in southern Colorado. Denver may not be so lucky.
“Denver residents are ratting out neighbors over water use during drought…
“As Colorado dries up in a historic drought, scofflaws violating water restrictions have sparked tension throughout the state’s largest metropolitan area, turning residential streets into checkerboards of virtue and vice. The emerald green lawns of cheaters now abut the crispy brown grass of the rule-followers — defiance that’s visible for all to see…
“More than 4,000 people have reported their neighbors for cheating on the restrictions this summer, the utility said, leading to one story in the Denver Post with thousands of comments, most along the lines of “Snitches get stitches.””
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2026/07/29/denvers-drought-turns-lawncare-into-neighborhood-divide/
Old West saying:
“Whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting !”
Bad times ahead globally as water becomes key.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
The ancients paddled many directions using their knowledge of the heights of land.
This is a pretty good summary of our impossible position in terms of avoiding civilisation ending temperatures.
https://drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-3-levers-that-could-stabilise
One (of many) key insights – if we stopped emitting now, and held concentrations of GHGs and aerosols as they are, then the surface would warm, at minimum, 0.73 degrees. At minimum because this ignores the temperature/cloud feedback, which is positive, not properly quantified but probably worse than anybody thinks, and puts an exponential aspect to temperature rise; also assumes that the extra GHGs we get from permafrost melt, and possibly other sinks turning into sources as they warm, are magically removed; and that there is no albedo change from extra ice melt. Thereforeit’s probably more like 2 degrees and, given that we are still increasing emissions and the EEI is increasing, possibly accelerating, rather than reducing, and any number of tipping points will soon be activated, actually much more.
Latest from the Honest Sorcerer – “No Oil, No Food”, also worth a read:
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/no-oil-no-food
“This peak and decline in agricultural land use will have more than profound impacts down the line. And no, not because it will urge us to build more indoor farming units—an energetic, resource and pollution nightmare—but because it will accelerate the coming decline in world food production. See, we can only feed this many people (and perhaps even more) because we have access to the latest agricultural technology. But, as you will see, that assumption is about to change.”
As is Prof Rees’s at reeswilliame dot substack dot com
When the highways & railroads turn to junk, nature will still provide water transport in some locations, like Canada.
Mike Ranta has made this clear with his epic journeys paddling across Canada. Do you own a canoe if you live near a river?
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/mike-ranta-lives-the-dream-with-his-cross-country-canoe-journey
Google his name for more recent accomplishments.
Mike Ranta is Atikokan born. Atikokan also labels itself as “the canoe capital of Canada”. Which seems very appropriate when Northwest Ontario is centered near numerous heights of land or divides in topography.
Major Canadian Divides:
The Laurentian Divide: Separates waters flowing north into Hudson Bay/Arctic Ocean from those flowing south into the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River.
The Continental Divide: Runs along the crest of the Rocky Mountains in Western Canada, separating waters that flow into the Pacific Ocean from those flowing toward the Arctic or Atlantic oceans.
The Arctic Divide: Separates river basins draining into the Arctic Ocean from those draining into Hudson Bay or the Atlantic.
The Mississippi Divide: Near the US/Canada border. North side becomes the Red RIver that runs toward Winnipeg, then on to Hudson Bay. South side becomes the Missouri & Mississippi drainage that empties into the Gulf of Mexico.
The ancient natives knew the best lakes, rivers, and portages to navigate this land for a very long time in birchbark canoes or dugout canoes.
https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/08/01/europe-extreme-heat-climate-change-55c.html?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17856729225661&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2026%2F08%2F01%2Feurope-extreme-heat-climate-change-55c.html
Me: Building for 131 F, 55 C? I think we will be just trying to merely survive. Not possible to build in those temps. People will be headed to cooler climes.
To cooler climes, trying to farm in tundra and hunt the abundant wildlife (hahahaha)
In summary:
Europe: Hot
Arctic: Hot
America: Hot
Asia: Hot
Antartica: Hot
Africa: Hot
Australia: Hot
South America: Hot
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/bars-bowling-alleys-movie-theaters-090000273.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=YW5kcm9pZC1hcHA6Ly9jb20uZ29vZ2xlLmFuZHJvaWQuZ29vZ2xlcXVpY2tzZWFyY2hib3gv&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFAvV0DRe3Syhv5nYrMeGlWhixEqQHIhNfQySSZ-atkNXGyCkyMxi8wvf15RIzLLlnqd6g3R9E4HBmx96qVStRHoHMTvCKgf11Fhz81QZ9HTFRmZEjE8ixIgrmZTV9IOW6ATa4DbPdd058H2DtUvciGC3_q6Yf–Io3WllIT2_D7
Me: I think this is a growing problem worldwide as depletion of everything is making so many things and services unaffordable.