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“Iran’s leaders are betting the global economy will buckle before the regime does…
“the global economy is critically dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for supplies of oil, gas and fertiliser. Iran’s leaders might calculate that they can endure Trump’s blockade – and the loss of their own oil exports – for longer than the world economy can withstand the closure of the Strait.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/07/14/irans-mullahs-endure-trumps-blockade-longer-than-us/
“US reimposes blockade on Iranian ports, launches more strikes…
““This is a low-intensity war that is becoming persistent,” said Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar, reporting from Tehran, Iran. “And, of course, there are concerns if things escalate further, there might be a return to a full-scale war.””
“Trump again threatens to strike Iran’s power plants amid impasse over strait of Hormuz…
““Next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. Next week comes the bridges,” the US president said in a Fox News interview on Tuesday. “We’re going to knock out all their power plants. We’re going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate.””
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/15/trump-iran-power-plants-strike-threat-strait-of-hormuz
“Oil: Stagflation fears rise with Middle East tensions – Deutsche Bank…
“Brent surged with its biggest daily rise since 2020, reviving stagflation concerns and pushing rate expectations and global bond yields higher, while equity markets struggled as energy costs and geopolitical risks weighed on sentiment.”
“The world no longer has an oil problem. It has a gasoline problem.
“…the world’s refining capacity is deeply constrained. That’s in part because the supply chain got messed up during the war. It’s also because Iran attacked dozens of Middle Eastern refineries. And, more recently, Ukraine started blowing up Russian energy facilities.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/14/economy/oil-diesel-gas-iran
“New Russia Oil Sanctions Bill Aims Tariffs at China, India.
“New Russian sanctions legislation spearheaded by the late Senator Lindsey Graham and backed by President Donald Trump would target the top five purchasers of Russian crude oil and natural gas, including China and India.”
“US returns $81bn after Trump tariffs ruled illegal…
“The country has paid out $81bn in tariff refunds so far this fiscal year – which began in October 2025 – compared to £5bn the year before. The refunds began in May after the US Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s broadest global tariffs as illegal in February.”
https://news.sky.com/story/us-returns-81bn-after-trump-tariffs-ruled-illegal-13563237
“The stock market seen benefiting most from the AI boom is experiencing the greatest volatility since the height of the 1998 Asian financial crisis [S Korea].
“Such instability is raising questions about the duration and sustainability of a rally that sent the MSCI Korea Index up more than 250% in the 12 months through June. In other words, how does this end?“
“The Federal Reserve could be forced to step in and bail out Wall Street in the event of a stock market meltdown, an executive at the banking giant ING has said.
“Bob Homan, global chief investment officer, said the US central bank could mimic efforts by the Japanese government in 2002 and 2009 when it took stakes in failing financial institutions during banking crises.”
“Wall Street converges on higher risks and rewards…
“Geopolitical uncertainty and the rise of artificial intelligence are keeping markets active, whether through jolts of volatility or efforts to raise mind-bogglingly huge sums to plow into data centers and the like… The danger is that post-crisis regulations are still primarily focused on lending and credit exposure. Trading assets, even riskier ones, often carry lower capital requirements than traditional loans.”
“‘Nobody underwrote for that’: Private credit faces a key test as higher rates squeeze borrowers…
“Global central banks are grappling with renewed inflation pressures, following the energy squeeze caused by the Middle East war, which is raising the prospect of further interest rate hikes. That’s a problem for private credit, where debt is typically floating-rate…”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/private-credit-stress-test-inflation-borrowers.html
“Banking regulators aren’t ready for the next financial crisis.
“The next financial crisis will be unlike any in the past several decades. It could be worse. Besides moving faster, the financial world is becoming increasingly complex and opaque. Digital bank runs happen in the blink of an eye — a pace no bank regulator can hope to match.”
https://www.americanbanker.com/opinion/banking-regulators-arent-ready-for-the-next-financial-crisis
“The collapse of the British shadow bank Market Financial Solutions (MFS) amid allegations of fraud has triggered a surge in insolvencies across the financial services sector.
“The number of finance companies entering administration in the first half of the year rose by 63pc compared to 2025, according to consultancy Kroll.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/07/13/shadow-bank-collapse-triggers-surge-in-insolvencies/
“The UK’s borrowing costs have sailed past five per cent for only the third time since the onset of the Iran war, in a headache for Andy Burnham just days before he enters Downing Street.
“The yield on the UK’s 10-year government bond climbed by as much as seven basis points on Tuesday morning, after the fragile ceasefire between Iran and the US shattered.”
https://www.cityam.com/borrowing-costs-climb-after-trump-salvo/
“Northern Italy airports face jet fuel shortage after tanker delay…
“The current situation echoes a supply disruption in April 2026, when a delayed tanker forced the imposition of strict fuel quotas. Bologna was particularly affected at the time, with aircraft subject to a tight 2,000-litre fuel cap. No immediate indications were given as to when normal fuel supplies would be restored…”
https://caliber.az/en/post/northern-italy-airports-face-jet-fuel-shortage-after-tanker-delay
“European defence groups plan interceptor system to destroy missiles in space.
“The alliance will be led by Dutch aerospace start-up Destinus, and includes Airbus’ German-based defence and space arm, MBDA Deutschland, as well as France’s Safran and Thales. The group… said the system would be designed to detect, track and defeat ballistic missiles above the atmosphere.”
https://www.ft.com/content/8280d5cf-a117-4dd2-bf69-dbe3ac199a18?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Ukrainian troops march at Bastille Day parade in Paris.
“During the 14 July 2026 Bastille Day military parade in Paris, France delivered a powerful signal of solidarity by incorporating Ukrainian armed forces and international allies directly into the heart of its national celebrations.”
“Ukraine given Storm Shadow missile blueprints.
“France has given the blueprints for its Scalp-EG cruise missile to Ukraine as part of a defence deal. The pact grants Kyiv the right to produce the weapon – essentially the same low-observable cruise missile as the British Storm Shadow – at factories in the war-torn country.”
“Central Asia feels the pinch of Russia’s fuel crunch…
“Tajikistan’s energy minister said last week that the country had around 60 days’ worth of fuel reserves and was in talks with neighbours to guarantee future supplies. Kyrgyzstan also asked neighbours for help with fuel supplies earlier this month.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/central-asia-feels-pinch-russias-fuel-crunch-2026-07-13/
“Russian oil refinery runs at 21-year lows after drone attacks, Kpler says…
“It said that since August 2025, at least 25 Russian refineries had been affected by drone strikes, with attacks impacting crude distillation units, secondary processing units — including FCCs, hydrocrackers, catalytic reformers and hydrotreaters — as well as storage tanks, pipelines and other critical logistics infrastructure.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2650865/world
“China Slashes Oil Refining Volumes After Crude Imports Collapse…
“Processing volumes extended their decline in June, dropping 18% year-on-year to 51.24 million tons, the lowest since March 2020 and the first throes of the pandemic, according to the statistics bureau on Wednesday.”
“China slowdown worse than expected on weak domestic demand.
“China’s growth slowed to 4.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, the slowest quarterly pace since the pandemic. Though June saw better industrial production and retail sales, the investment slump worsened. Weak domestic demand also weighed on overall momentum.”
https://think.ing.com/articles/china-slowdown-worse-than-expected-amid-domestic-activity-slump/
“South Korea airs concerns over North Korean border activity.
“Emboldened by its security and economic alliance with Moscow and flush with cash after sending troops and military equipment to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, North Korea is testing boundaries closer to home.”
https://www.dw.com/en/south-korea-airs-concerns-over-north-korean-border-activity/a-77938229
“Cambodia-Thailand border dispute leaves Boeung Trakuon a shadow of its former self.
“Once a bustling border town where lorries queued to transport agricultural produce through a key Cambodia–Thailand checkpoint, Boeung Trakuon has become a place defined by silence, abandoned homes and military fortifications.”
“Stones Thrown, Vehicles Torched: Mob Attack At Assam Rifles Camp In Manipur…
“A section of the mob vandalised and damaged Assam Rifles vehicles. While one light vehicle was set on fire, two trucks were overturned and damaged. According to local sources, an Alto car parked outside the COB gate was set ablaze during the protest, while a nearby waiting shed was also torched.”
“Nine killed in fresh Azad Kashmir clashes as authorities launch security operation…
“The violence erupted a day before JAAC called for a march on Rawalakot, escalating a weeks-long confrontation over 12 seats reserved in the Azad Kashmir Legislative Assembly for refugees from Indian-administered Kashmir.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2650842/pakistan
“Chemical tanker Stolt Magnesium hit by explosion off Omani coast, manager says.
“The chemical tanker Stolt Magnesium caught fire on Tuesday following the “explosion of an unidentified external device” as it was sailing in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Oman, according to its manager Stolt Tankers, the main unit of Norwegian shipping company Stolt-Nielsen’s.”
“No LNG tankers cross Strait of Hormuz since July 11 amid escalating US-Iran conflict.
“No LNG carriers have transited the Strait of Hormuz since July 11, as the security situation around the strategic waterway continues to deteriorate following Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels and subsequent military exchanges between Iran and the United States.”
“U.A.E. Rewarded With Coveted AI Chips for Supporting U.S. War in Iran.
“The United Arab Emirates has gained expanded access from the U.S. to coveted artificial-intelligence chips after aiding America in recent months by carrying out dozens of airstrikes against Iran, intercepting hundreds of missiles and keeping oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz.”
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/uae-ai-chips-iran-war-26c10d77
“Lebanon deputy PM says framework with Israel lacks timeline for army’s withdrawal…
“Washington is the sponsor and not the mediator in these talks, and if the sponsor is keen to resolve the issue, it should adjust the balance of power,” Mitri said, adding that the guarantee of a withdrawal could return “some confidence to the talks”.
“Yemen’s Houthis launch missiles at Saudi Arabia after strikes on Sanaa airport…
“The strike was claimed by Yemen’s government, which said it wanted to prevent an Iranian plane from landing. It was the most significant escalation in the largely dormant conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia since an informal truce took effect four years ago.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp9ldle3d3xo
“How new Yemen tensions could complicate the global energy crisis.
“While the immediate violence centres on the airport dispute, analysts warn that the true danger lies in how this localised flare-up could spill over into the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if it expands… Crucially, the strait is a huge energy corridor.”
“Tanker Fires Warning Shots After Being Approached By Six Boats Off Yemen.
“A tanker sailing through a key shipping route south of Yemen fired warning shots after being approached by six small boats. The incident took place about 50 nautical miles (93 km) south of Aden as the tanker was travelling east through the Internationally Recommended Transit Corridor…”
“The Red Sea’s Rival Powers Turn the Horn of Africa Into a Strategic Battleground.
“The Horn of Africa is no longer a strategic side stage. It has become part of the same geopolitical arena as the Red Sea, the Gulf, and the wider Middle East, where ports, military agreements, shipping lanes, and diplomatic recognition now shape the balance of power.”
“EU imposes Sudan gold ban but declines to sanction UAE-backed militia accused of ‘genocide’.
“…the sanctions regime does not include new measures against the RSF despite MEPs backing a resolution in the European Parliament last week urging the bloc to add the RSF to its list of terrorist organisations.”
“From bombmaking to motorcycle tweaks: how Nigerian jihadists use AI…
“While the internet — along with foreign and homegrown expertise from battle-hardened commanders — has long been an aide to jihadists, “the step by-step-instructions” provided by chatbots as well as “being able to ask specific questions” represent something novel, Juelich told AFP.”
“How Benin is coping with an unprecedented influx of Sahel refugees.
“Having fled Burkina Faso, Niger and Nigeria, tens of thousands of forcibly displaced people have arrived in northern Benin. It is a largely overlooked humanitarian crisis that is testing the limits of the community-based reception model adopted by Cotonou.”
“Cuba’s power grid collapses again, triggering third blackout in 10 days…
““There has been a total disconnection of the electrical system,” Cuba’s Ministry of Energy and Mines said on social media. The latest blackout comes as Cuba faces its worst economic crisis in decades, worsened by an oil blockade imposed by the United States…”
“Colombian president says Biddeford ICE shooting was murder.
“Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Tuesday issued a strongly worded statement calling the killing of a young Colombian man by federal immigration agents in Biddeford an “asesinato” — a word which translates to assassination, or murder.”
https://www.pressherald.com/2026/07/14/colombian-president-says-biddeford-ice-shooting-was-murder/
“‘Misuse’ of crowd-control weapons on ICE protesters led to blindings and traumatic brain injuries, report finds.
“The researchers struggled to confirm the full scale of the injuries, because “visual investigative techniques cannot adequately assess invisible injuries, such as chemical injury or chronic pain or hearing loss”. “The true number of injuries is likely far greater,” the report adds.”
“Meta used AI to tag workers who took leave to be laid off, lawsuit claims.
“Dozens of Meta employees have sued the social media company over claims that it used artificial intelligence tools to tag workers for mass layoffs. The workers allege that those AI tools targeted them after they asked for protected or maternity leave or disability accommodation.”
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jul/14/meta-ai-mass-layoffs-lawsuit
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Russia’s fuel crisis has entered a new phase. What began as a logistics problem has become a volume problem. According to our analysis, refinery throughput has fallen from roughly 5.0mbpd in 2022 to just 2.9mbpd in early July 2026, leaving the country unable to meet domestic demand across gasoline, diesel and other refined products.
Gasoline shortages are now nationwide, diesel has followed, exports have collapsed and are now banned, rationing has spread across most federal subjects, and the Kremlin has quietly shifted from denial to damage control.
Ukraine’s drone campaign is no longer simply destroying refineries. It is steadily degrading Russia’s ability to convert crude oil into usable fuel, bringing the war home to Moscow and, finally, to ordinary Russians.
This report is therefore not simply about Russian gasoline shortages. It is about identifying the second- and third-order consequences of a structural deterioration in Russia’s fuel balance and how that is reshaping global trade flows, refining margins, freight markets and capital allocation. The chapter What’s the Trade? explores those implications in detail.
Russia’s fuel crisis has entered a new phase. What began as a logistics problem has become a volume problem. According to our analysis, refinery throughput has fallen from roughly 5.0mbpd in 2022 to just 2.9mbpd in early July 2026, leaving the country unable to meet domestic demand across gasoline, diesel and other refined products.
Gasoline shortages are now nationwide, diesel has followed, exports have collapsed and are now banned, rationing has spread across most federal subjects, and the Kremlin has quietly shifted from denial to damage control.
Ukraine’s drone campaign is no longer simply destroying refineries. It is steadily degrading Russia’s ability to convert crude oil into usable fuel, bringing the war home to Moscow and, finally, to ordinary Russians.
https://www.thecommoditycompass.com/p/episode-5-running-on-empty-the-russian?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzIyNjI1NzQsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE2MjQ1OTI4OSwiaWF0IjoxNzg0MTE5MTA1LCJleHAiOjE3ODY3MTExMDUsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0zMTc3MTMwIiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.uwbfK_AujgNtZxP-yemIv-0kYlhBxQZ5-cYIJhDZYok
Thank you, Ravi. Stahel’s data collation is impressive. If he is correct, Belarus is a potential, looming flashpoint:
“The Kremlin almost certainly instructed Lukashenko to divert as much gasoline and, increasingly, jet fuel as possible into Russia. The data suggest he is doing exactly that… Belarusian gasoline shipments to Russia between 1 and 22 May increased fifty-eight-fold from a year earlier, while jet-fuel exports quadrupled.
“The problem is that Kyiv understands those numbers just as well as Moscow. President Zelensky has already warned Lukashenko publicly that continued fuel deliveries make Belarus part of Russia’s military logistics chain. By our numbers, Lukashenko has ignored that warning so far.”
“the global economy is critically dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for supplies of oil, gas and fertiliser. Iran’s leaders might calculate that they can endure Trump’s blockade – and the loss of their own oil exports – for longer than the world economy can withstand the closure of the Strait.”
And until shale sputters circa 2028/29/30 the bipartisan US ruling class will not be deterred by that. In fact that is part of the strategy of reinforcing or imposing US/NATO control over resources that will be physically supply-constrained in the near future. A strategy that was at work during the 2022 Russian invasion, then the 2023 Israeli retaliation against Palestine, then the Syrian woke jihadist coup, then the Iran protests corrupted into a vehicle for imposing US hegemony following the pattern of Syria. All courtesy of the democrats.
Either provoke rival powers to attack first or make proxies attack them. If this “I’m not touching you” tactic fails, get Trump elected and switch to “I’m touching you and proud of it” mode that lines up with a right-wing brand image. Of course the brand image of both parties will be discredited somewhat when Dems sweep this year and win bigly in 2028, then keep doing the same shit because the causes of Trump’s “insane” actions will not only have persisted but progressively intensified by that time.
And then another “crazy” Republican wins in 2032 and America descends into fascism after 4 years of respite. In 2036, the Democrat campaign will primarily focus on the importance of ensuring all races are proportionately represented in the euthanasia programs instituted by the Republicans.
In 2040, politicians from both sides make a joint statement informing the public that even they’re exhausted by their own kayfabe shenanigans, because there’s no point anymore. So let’s all just enjoy what little time we have left and reminisce about the good times m’kay?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFjCm96zGSY
Jupiviv, I’m ill-equipped to comment on the future trajectory of US politics, except to make the very obvious point that it will turn increasingly dysfunctional and unpleasant. I do like that mash-up though.
RIP, George Michael. What a talent he was.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ve-rxwKuqtI
Assassination Nation: From the happy-face global village to an outright global pillage: the mask gets ripped off the face of globalization, revealing the Imperialism that was always at its core.
The American Furor and the Red Queen now rule the world from the Rose Garden of the Beasts. Off with everyone’s head!
The Canadian $1 coin made of non-precious metals has a loon bird stamped on it, thus it is called the “loonie”. It has a golden hue, but no real gold coating (probably brass or bronze). It is legal tender.
The USA is probably moving to abolish the $1 bill, the ‘greenback’, because paper currency wears out so quickly.
The following link shows the new fiat, non-precious metal, commemorative $1 legal-tender coin with Trump’s face.
Will it have a proper copper orange hue and be called the American “loonie”? I hope so, lol!
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/15/donald-trump-dollar-coin-00998818
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Is Artificial Intelligence an oxymoron?
Is dynamic pricing, price gouging?