Huge thanks to Environmental Coffeehouse YouTube channel for sponsoring me this month. For the uninitiated, the channel covers climate, conservation, pollution, biodiversity, sustainability, and the intersection of environment, society, and policy.
Very sad news to relate before I begin my thread – regular commenter, Flippr has passed away. He will be much missed.
“After six months defined by war, an oil shock and a frenzied AI trade, economists say the rest of the year hangs on a chain of interlocking risks, with the fragile peace between the US and Iran as the key factor.
“The second half of the year rests on a delicate chain of dominoes, according to a new briefing from Oxford Economics, and whether the US-Iran peace agreement holds is the factor that determines how the rest fall.”
“Saudi, Qatari tankers hit as Strait of Hormuz risks worsen.
“A Qatari LNG tanker is at risk of exploding and a Saudi crude tanker has been damaged due to Iranian attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the White House to revoke a license it granted Iran to sell oil.”
“US hits more than 80 Iran targets, reimposes oil sanctions.
“The US military “completed” a new round of strikes on Iran, hitting over 80 targets, according to a statement late Tuesday from US Central Command. The US also reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales in retaliation for attacks on commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/07/world/live-news/nato-summit-trump
“Tehran targets Bahrain and Kuwait after US strikes…
“The regional crossfire raised the risks that an interim agreement to halt fighting in the war could break down, putting the Middle East again at risk of a wider conflict… “The era of bullying and extortion is over,” Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf wrote on X. “It leads nowhere. We don’t fold.”
https://www.npr.org/2026/07/08/g-s1-132460/us-iran-attacks
“World weathers historic oil shock, but depleted reserves bring risks…
“The global economy weathered the shock by drawing down stocks at a record pace, according to IEA data, draining the very buffers designed to protect it from supply crises. “It doesn’t mean we can’t operate without one, it just means that forward prices could be more prone to spikes,” Bouchouev said. That kind of volatility is costly.”
“Geopolitical shockwaves strike food and drink packaging.
“Data from the Flexible Packaging Europe (FPE) Raw Material Price Index confirms that geopolitical tensions — chiefly driven by the recent Iran crisis and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz — have triggered an unprecedented price spike across every major packaging substrate.”
“Japan’s borrowing costs soar to 30-year high on debt fears.
“Japan’s borrowing costs have shot to their highest in 30 years as investors fret over the tumbling yen and the effect of a $2tn long-term spending plan on the country’s massive debts… The surge in Japan’s borrowing costs, investors warn, is putting pressure on its significant sovereign debt…”
https://www.ft.com/content/851aa883-073f-4423-a43e-9b09fdbe7c86?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Private Credit Firms Divided on Fraud Response As High-Profile Collapses Pile Up.
“Private credit lenders are taking very different approaches to fraud risk in the wake of recent blow-ups on both sides of the Atlantic, with some firms running enhanced due diligence on every new deal and others treating the failures as one-offs that do not warrant a change in underwriting practice.”
https://www.fticonsulting.com/insights/articles/private-credit-firms-divided-fraud-response
“HSBC is halting lending to riskier private credit clients, after high-profile bankruptcies cast doubt on underwriting standards in the sector and pushed banks to cut their exposure.
“Europe’s biggest lender told clients in recent weeks that it would not renew their facilities after deciding to stop lending to private credit funds that did not provide sufficient returns to justify the risk.”
https://www.ft.com/content/08a93f45-24fe-4ea3-9b1e-ecfb68ee309d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Stymied datacentre projects threaten global AI revolution…
“Jay Dietrich, a research director at Uptime, says a number of factors are working against proposed datacentre projects… “The global supply chain just cannot support the level of projects out there, on the timeline that is projected. The scale is such that it’s going to slow things down,” he says.”
“Why this billion-dollar tech company is sending data centers to space.
“With AI straining Earth’s infrastructure, space-tech startup Starcloud is developing orbital data centers designed to meet the world’s growing computing needs.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/07/business/video/starcloud-space-ai-data-centers-hnk-spc
“The Treasury Department is refuting a staffer’s draft report warning the public of a potential AI bubble.
“A Treasury spokesperson told The Post on Tuesday that it rejects the draft, reported by news site NOTUS, which said AI companies have become so deeply embedded in financial markets that a sharp contraction would ripple far beyond Silicon Valley.”
“The Bank of England is planning to loosen capital requirements for major UK lenders, even as policymakers expressed concern about the threat to financial stability from rapid AI developments and debt-fuelled stock investments.
“The central bank said on Tuesday it was looking to remove and loosen some rules introduced after the 2008 financial crisis…”
“Britain’s bond market may limit what Burnham can do as PM.
“Britain’s brittle bond market is looming large over Andy Burnham, Britain’s likely next prime minister, and could constrain what the left-leaning former mayor of Manchester can do in office. Burnham has already moved to calm investors’ nerves over a potential spending surge…”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/britains-bond-market-may-limit-050240854.html
“Germany is facing its deepest crisis since the Second World War…
“The Federal Republic has yet to regain pre-Covid levels of prosperity. For the past few years the economy has stagnated, lagging on the two measures on which the Germans used to lead the Continent: growth and inflation.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/07/06/germany-facing-deepest-crisis-since-second-world-war/
“Trump threatens to remove all US troops from Europe.
“The threat came as the US president revived his calls for the US to take control of Greenland, potentially reigniting a crisis that has posed the biggest threat to transatlantic unity… “It continues to be that [Greenland] should be controlled by the United States, not by Denmark,” he said.”
https://www.ft.com/content/a23fcb67-9ef9-4a07-b645-e4f6d1474334?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“NATO’s $50 Billion Effort Seeks Deep-Strike Weapons Without US.
“The UK, France and Germany have launched a $50 billion NATO initiative to spur the development of long-range weapons without US involvement, aiming to close the gap in an area where Russia is well ahead.”
“Russian missiles strike Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, for third time in a week…
“Both Russia and Ukraine have recently expanded their use of long-range weapons, including missiles, marking a new front in Moscow’s four-year war. Ukraine has focused its attacks on Russian energy facilities to weaken its war efforts.”
“Europe Diesel Prices Soar as Ukraine Strikes Hit Russian Exports.
“Diesel exports from major shipper Russia have plunged in recent weeks as Kyiv targets energy infrastructure there, hurting operations at key refineries and disrupting fuel supplies in a bid to bring Moscow to the negotiating table.”
“Motorists are queuing for fuel in the Russian city of Omsk after Ukrainian drones hit the country’s biggest oil refinery in one of their deepest attacks inside Russia since the start of the war.
“Reuters video showed a long but orderly line of vehicles waiting at a filling station on Monday night, a few hours after the attack.”
https://www.aol.com/articles/motorists-queue-fuel-omsk-ukrainian-141229000.html
“War threatens Russian banking crisis, European intelligence report says.
“The intelligence report… said banks have been pushed to give subsidised loans to defence companies, homebuyers and others. It noted that state-backed credit programmes, loan restructurings and government support masked the banks’ vulnerability.”
“‘Might not be the last’: the red flags behind China’s latest bank rescue.
“Years of aggressive expansion and flawed corporate governance have laid bare fresh vulnerabilities in China’s banking system, prompting regulators to step in to rescue an underperforming regional player – Zhongbang Bank.”
“Number of flight cancellations on China-Japan routes continue to surge.
“A sharp contraction in air traffic between China and Japan is extending into July after thousands of flights were canceled over the past month. Various carriers canceled nearly 1,500 flights between the two sides in this June, with all flights canceled on 25 routes. You Yang takes look at the reasons.”
“Japan, China coast guards face off near disputed isles.
“Ships from Japan’s and China’s coast guards yesterday faced off near disputed islands, with each claiming they drove out the other’s vessels that had intruded into their territorial waters.”
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/07/08/2003860402
“Thailand Rejects Allegations Concerning an Explosion on Cambodian Territory…
“Thailand calls upon the Cambodian side to refrain from making unsubstantiated allegations which not only reflect a lack of judgement, good faith and sincerity, but distort the facts, create misunderstanding and seriously undermine the peaceful atmosphere along the border.”
https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40068364
“‘Nothing left except death’: Myanmar families grieve huge war toll…
“”How many more young people will have to die?” asked Soe Gyi, recounting how his nephew was killed in combat after he quit training as a monk to fight for pro-democracy rebels. “Only the elderly and the very young children are left,” said the 49-year-old last month.”
“Two Soldiers Killed in Ambush in India’s Restive Northeast…
“Manipur has seen periodic clashes between the predominantly Hindu Meitei majority and the mainly Christian Kuki minority for over three years, but the violence has spread in recent months, also drawing in the Naga group.”
https://thedefensepost.com/2026/07/07/india-northeast-ambush/
“El Niño Dry Spell Hits India’s Hydropower Output Straining Grid.
“India’s hydropower generation in June plunged by more than a fifth after dry weather linked to El Niño depleted reservoir levels, piling pressure on the grid during the peak summer demand season.”
“Pakistan Ups the Ante on Indus Water Dispute With India…
“There is growing eagerness in Pakistan to involve China, the other upper riparian country, more directly in the issue… If India can unilaterally suspend a treaty and threaten the rights of a lower riparian like Pakistan, the logic goes, then China could similarly become a party to such dynamics.”
https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/pakistan-ups-the-ante-on-indus-water-dispute-with-india/
“Taliban Deepens Ties With India Despite Pakistan’s Warnings.
“As tensions and military clashes between the Taliban and Pakistan reach unprecedented levels, another Taliban minister has travelled to India, signalling a new phase in Kabul’s engagement with Islamabad’s long-standing regional rival.”
https://www.afintl.com/en/202607073529
“Nine police officers killed in Pakistan attack, officials say…
“The attackers opened fire on police guarding the construction site of a multi-billion rupee dam in the Ziarat district, Deputy Commissioner Abdul Quddus Achakzai said. Two senior officers are among those killed, and a search operation is under way to find missing personnel, he added.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yzvww9d9ro
“Iran projects regional power as Khamenei funeral heads to Iraq…
“It is not unusual for the body of a pious Shia Muslim to be taken to the Najaf shrine before interment. But there is little precedent for a foreign dignitary to be venerated in this way — particularly one so polarising at home and abroad.”
https://www.ft.com/content/f73e4763-1a33-45ee-9e22-cca151a16e5e
“Syria grapples with unrest as government faces old and new threats.
“Damascus was rocked on Tuesday by explosions during a visit by French President Emmanuel Macron, the first European Union leader to visit the country since forces led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa deposed Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.”
“Palestinians brace as Israeli settler figures in coalition seek to cement West Bank gains before election…
“Ilham Karajeh awoke on Friday last week to find her family allotment raided and ruined. The thin black irrigation pipes had been sliced, grape vines cut and 70 young olive trees, the embodiment of the family’s aspirations for the future, had been uprooted.”
“Houthis threaten Saudi shipping through Bab al-Mandab in major escalation.
“Regional analysts warn that bringing Bab al-Mandab directly into the conflict risks internationalising Yemen’s war even further, given the strait’s importance for global trade… The warning underscores the growing importance of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab as instruments of political leverage.”
https://thearabweekly.com/houthis-threaten-saudi-shipping-through-bab-al-mandab-major-escalation
“The ‘navalization’ of economic warfare sees trade routes become zones of force rather than rules…
“As a longtime observer of international security and geopolitical risk, I believe this trend suggests not a coordinated global policy but a broader shift in practice: Sanctions enforcement is moving from financial systems back into physical space.”
“UAE discreetly builds military base in Somaliland for US and Israel…
“The construction coincides with Israel’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence, announced on December 26, 2025. This surprise diplomatic move, the only one of its kind to date, by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ultimately aims to establish a forward Israeli outpost in the Gulf of Aden, close to the Yemeni coast, where Houthi rebels operate.”
“Kenya, Tanzania suppress protests with heavy police deployments.
““These are the characteristics of a police state. You find police deployed even when there is no fracas, there is no march, there is no demonstration, there are no vehicles on the road, and even holding a press conference becomes difficult, but we are undeterred,” he said.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/tanzania-kenya-nairobi-east-african-b3010595.html
“Sudan conflict: El-Obeid under constant drone strikes blamed on RSF…
“Nathaniel Raymond, the executive director of US-based Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab, told the BBC that el-Obeid was strategically significant for the warring sides, lying between the RSF-controlled west of the country, with the east mostly in the hands of the army.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20yyjdzw7po
“Jihadists and Tuareg allies fight for control of strategic camp in northern Mali…
“The Al-Qaeda-linked JNIM jihadists and Tuareg FLA separatists launched coordinated attacks in the region on Saturday, just over two months after another major offensive in which they captured the strategic northern town of Kidal and killed the troubled west African country’s defence minister.”
“Ghana halts visit by South African president amid row over anti-migrant protests.
“Ghana has postponed a visit by South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa following xenophobic rallies that resulted in hundreds of Ghanaians being repatriated from his country. Ramaphosa had long planned a visit to Ghana in the first week of August…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8dmelnjk7o
“Smoke, soot and toxic fumes: Nigerian families living in shadow of burning oil well six years after blowout…
“Seventy‑year‑old Orugbemi says Ijadopin started coughing one evening in May, inside their small wooden home in Awoye on Nigeria’s Atlantic coastline. After a few days his cough intensified, then he developed a skin irritation, followed by difficulty breathing.”
“Brazil’s expanding offshore oil frontier puts biodiversity at risk: study.
“Fossil fuel exploration off the northeast coast of Brazil presents a greater cumulative risk of oil spills than previously expected, according to new modeling. Seagrass meadows and deep-water reefs in the Potiguar Basin are at greatest risk, as well as portions of the coasts of Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte and Amapá states.”
“Super El Niño Could Push Colombia Into an Energy Crisis.
“Colombia is becoming increasingly dependent on costly LNG imports as domestic natural gas production and reserves continue to decline. A potential Super El Niño could reduce hydroelectric generation, increasing demand for gas-fired power and pushing energy prices even higher.”
“‘Living like this is agony’: Cuba suffers third nationwide blackout in six months…
““Living like this is agony,” said Meyboll Font, a 51-year-old self-employed social media community manager… “We have no wifi, no electricity, we can’t work,” said a young software programmer working for a tourism startup in another neighbourhood.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/06/cuba-suffers-third-nationwide-blackout-in-six-months
“Top banking watchdogs issue stark warning over AI-driven cyber attacks…
“The ESRB, which is responsible for monitoring and preventing threats to the European financial system, said the latest AI models represent “a paradigm shift for cyber security” as IT weaknesses could now be “weaponised” in a “matter of minutes or hours”.”
https://www.ft.com/content/304cdbb9-c161-4e40-af4d-6df1d2ff5363?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“How the 2026 El Nino Climate Event Will Affect the Global Economy and Security…
“The most immediate and direct impacts from El Nino will be tropical storms, drought and increased rainfall, creating safety, logistical and supply chain disruptions for businesses globally… El Nino will negatively impact food production globally, raising operating costs for the agricultural sector and exacerbating already pronounced food insecurity-related humanitarian threats.”
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
I am so sorry to hear about flippr! I enjoyed his participation here.
“The connections we make in the course of a life – maybe that’s what heaven is”
– Fred Rogers
Thanks for the connection, flippr. There’s something to be said for getting the hell out of Dodge but I will miss you. 💜 💔
Agreed – in particular he was notably open open to new sources and ideas.
As bad as the next twelve months looked likely to be, it’s going to be much worse. The El Nino is going to step change in climate that was not imagined and is outside the models capability to predict. Oil markets are entering unknown territory – even if production is somehow maintained reasonably high they will be operating without a buffer for further geopolitical shocks, of which there are surely going to be some major ones, and the diesel proportion in products is going to fall significantly. China is going to have increasing problems keeping its economy away from major decline. Public and private debt are going to be entering the catastrophe region in many places. Governments have no playbooks for any of this as they all basically follow neoliberal economics of various hues and cannot think beyond that. And famine and violence become more entrenched and endemic.
As per Twitter Eliot J
“The mean peak sea-surface temperature anomaly for region Nino 3.4 is now at 4.17°C above the 1850-1900 baseline.”
I’m watching the heatwave that’s currently forecast for north central plains. Is peak corn pollination time and the corn’s reproduction processes face several risks.
George: Heating oil is up over 13% today. I can’t get a good diesel price but I would think it would be doing the same.
“As bad as the next twelve months looked likely to be, it’s going to be much worse.”
George, you’ll be unsurprised to learn that I agree! If this monstrous El Nino peaks in November, we won’t be feeling the absolute full effects of that until 2027, although the journey there will of course be increasingly bumpy. The US/Israel/Iran situation is looking intractable, too.
Yes I will miss him. He had a sort of ‘comments light’. It was already announced and forseen by himself a couple of month ago.
I love good quotes and flippr liked posting those. I guess I fall under the “comments light” category, too, as I am not as deeply informed as many of you commenters here, all of whom I deeply appreciate. That said, I nominate Truth Wizard as C & E Poet Laureate. IMHO he says the most with the fewest words!
He was good company and tended to comment very soon after I’d posted a thread, which was nice. Made me feel I wasn’t howling into the abyss.
RIP, Flippr. You were far from “meh”.
astonishing images!
The Funeral Procession Carrying Khamenei’s Coffin Through the Night in Najaf
The funeral procession carrying Khamenei’s coffin moves through the night in Najaf. During the day, that would hardly be possible. In July, temperatures in the Iraqi holy city can rise to almost fifty degrees Celsius. The day has come to a standstill; the night has taken its place.
Under the harsh glare of floodlights, an enormous crowd is packed tightly together. In front of them, in the foreground, lies the green coffin. Behind it is a wall of faces, phones, security personnel and cameras. Giant portraits of Khamenei hang from the buildings. At the very edge of the scene, the nose of an aircraft is just visible.
And above the middle of the crowd hangs a microphone on a long boom. As if history itself still needs to be properly recorded.
It is at once a funeral, a political demonstration and an airport arrival hall. A dead leader is being carried through the holy cities of Shia Islam, while around him a world tries to show that it still exists. Clerics, politicians, soldiers, militias and ordinary believers move together through the same night.
But the heat also changes the ritual itself. Daytime is no longer the natural stage for public life. During the day, people shelter and wait. Only after the sun has disappeared do they come outside and the city begins to move again.
And so Khamenei’s coffin travels through an almost artificially illuminated world. Under floodlights, past portraits and flags, among thousands of people holding up their phones.
Power shows itself one last time.
But only at night.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/coffin-slain-iranian-supreme-leader-arrives-iraqs-najaf-iraqi-state-tv-says-2026-07-07/
Thank you, Zip – very poetic. The high mortality rate at the 2024 Hajj forced some adaptations on the faithful. You wonder how long it will be before all activities have to be nocturnal:
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/06/heatwave-saudi-arabia-reschedules-stoning-rite-to-evening/
““Ilham Karajeh awoke on Friday last week to find her family allotment raided and ruined. The thin black irrigation pipes had been sliced, grape vines cut and 70 young olive trees, the embodiment of the family’s aspirations for the future, had been uprooted.”
And the Israeli Zionists wonder why they are so despised around the world.
It is very predatory and merciless behaviour, Cassandra.
The world cup is turning into a shit show. Cape verde and Egypt played really well but we all know these are imperialist games for the masses so we will forget gaza and the ongoing genocides in the middle east. I am sure the oil outages and water collapse of the Colorado river system will be fine because i do not think trump or any other political leader will be able to handle the collapse as the self sabotage everything even there own businesses will come to bear at the end.
Heather, I was very sad to see Cape Verde get knocked out. I love a good underdog. I remember thrilling to Cameroon’s unexpected advance to the quarter finals in the 1990 World Cup, where they were knocked out by England. I’d have been happy to see either team win, tbh.
Here’s late, legendary Cape Verdean singer, Cesria Evora’s beautiful tribute to her homeland:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeLUGn7qYP8
“The global economy weathered the shock by drawing down stocks at a record pace,”
Past tense? Hahahahahah
🤦🏻♀️
Maybe sort of weathered SO FAR.
From Quark’s latest:
“The world has already entered the final stage, where the fight for resources (of course, I am not only talking about oil) is an important part of the global strategy. Europe remains focused on Russia, while China, for the moment, only has the goal of incorporating Taiwan into Chinese control, annexing the island. The energy aspect is focused on the electrification of the system to avoid dependence on external oil and gas.
Japan is beginning to suffer from the devaluation of the yen and the economic crisis suggested by the combination of a loss of control over the currency and the strangulation of the financial system by the excess of debt.
The AI and data center bubble is starting to have problems, when the major companies are forced to issue heavy debt to finance investments, which can no longer be sustained by cash flow.
Global debt is a bottomless pit that has not caused problems so far. But the size of the debt has already forced many organizations like the BIS to issue warnings regarding the unsustainability of its growth.
The problem is that global economic growth depends on an accelerated increase in global debt, so any measure to curb the rise in debt would contribute to a decline in the global economy.
At some point not too far off, the accumulation of problems will become unsustainable and cause a market crash. It is not a prediction, it is simply pure logic.
Systematically resorting to debt to finance exhausted growth does not help solve the problem; it only pushes it into the future. If we also consume available resource reserves, in the end (without needing to set a specific date, but without much delay in time, remember 2030) growth ends and the system collapses because it is designed to function only with perpetual economic growth. What no one knows is when confidence in the system will be lost, which is why analyses related to mass psychology will take on special importance from this moment on.
What seems to be taking shape is the division between the genesis of the zenith of civilization (a very long process, of which we have already been developing for several decades) and the final explosion, which I very much fear will be extraordinarily rapid, due to the positive feedback that the initial crash will cause.”