Huge thanks to Kimpton Bradford for being my June sponsor. At his request, this thread is dedicated to his lifelong hero, Dr. David Suzuki, who recently celebrated his 90th birthday.
“Global growth is slowing to lowest level since pandemic, says World Bank…
“Even if the disruption to oil flows in the strait of Hormuz shipping channel triggered by the Iran war abates next month, the World Bank expects global inflation to rise to 4% in 2026, up significantly from 3.3% in 2025.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/11/global-growth-slow-lowest-level-pandemic-world-bank
“El Niño Slams Into a Global Economy Unprepared for More Chaos.
“…the risk of punishing heat waves, severe drops in rainfall and devastating deluges in various corners of the world… doesn’t bode well for governments, businesses and households already struggling with higher inflation linked to the US and Israel’s war in Iran.”
“The world’s strategic oil reserves are running out fast. They cannot hold back the energy crunch for ever…
“China has slashed its imports by roughly 5m b/d from pre-war levels; rationing has caused overall demand elsewhere to fall by a similar amount. Brazil, Venezuela and others are pumping a bit more than before. The remainder is being filled by tapping the world’s stocks—above all from rich countries’ strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs).”
“Iran war tightens ‘super-squeeze’ in metals markets.
“The Iran war is creating a “super-squeeze” in industrial metals such as copper and aluminium, say executives and analysts who believe persistent tight market conditions mean prices could be set to stay high for years to come.”
https://www.ft.com/content/44d4b188-45ed-4e7e-a5eb-278da62ac601?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Financial Engineering Is Resembling Pre-Crisis Era, Pimco Warns.
“The rapid expansion of complex credit structures is reminiscent of the build-up ahead of the global financial crisis, Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Dan Ivascyn warned… Ivascyn on Thursday also flagged the rise of leverage in the exchange-traded fund industry, where everyday investors can get exposure to sometimes double or triple the daily return of some assets.”
“The next financial crisis could start with advanced economies’ sovereign debt.
“…sovereign debt markets in advanced economies sit at the centre of the global financial system. US Treasuries, Japanese government bonds and major European sovereign securities underpin global collateral markets, funding arrangements and risk pricing.”
“Janet Yellen sounds warning over US debt and threats to Fed.
“Former US Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has warned that the United States is on an “unsustainable course” with its fiscal policy, risking an “abrupt rethinking” by investors that could compromise the Federal Reserve’s independence and trigger global financial instability.”
“Wholesale prices rose more than expected in May, indicating that pipeline inflationary pressures are percolating higher [US]…
“The producer price index, a measure of final demand costs, increased a seasonally adjusted 1.1% on the month, putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at 6.5%.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/producer-price-index-may-2026-.html
“U.S. To Build Its First Ever Floating LNG Export Terminal.
“The project will use existing offshore pipeline infrastructure and feature the world’s largest floating LNG vessel, with 90% of its initial export capacity already secured through long-term contracts and backing from major investors including BlackRock, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and Vitol.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/US-To-Build-Its-First-Ever-Floating-LNG-Export-Terminal.html
“Norway challenges EU to call US gas ‘safer’ than Arctic reserves…
“Brussels is considering dropping its moratorium on new Arctic drilling, a shift Norway has lobbied hard for “”…if Europe does not want it, it goes somewhere else. European countries must make their decisions… Is it safer to buy it from the Gulf? From Qatar? Is it safer to buy it from the US?””
https://www.ft.com/content/a579f744-e4b3-4a8c-a5e3-6d34818b9ca4
“Record numbers turning to loan sharks as cost-of-living crisis bites, warns Centre for Social Justice [UK]…
“The number of people borrowing from unscrupulous money lenders has risen by 500,000 since 2022 to around 1.7 million people in England and more than two million across the UK. The findings are to be featured in a new documentary, Hunting the Debt Predators…”
“Gilt Traders Brace for UK Vote With Burnham Eyeing Starmer’s Job…
“The risk is that a win by Labour candidate Andy Burnham in the Makerfield by-election on June 18 will allow him to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the top job, spelling huge uncertainty for gilts.”
“ECB raises eurozone interest rates as Iran war stokes inflation…
“Eurozone consumer price inflation rose to 3.2% in May 2026, from 3% in April, sparking concerns that the conflict in the Middle East will force manufacturers and retailers to push through price increases into the summer and autumn to maintain profit levels.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/11/ecb-eurozone-interest-rates-iran-war-inflation
“China cancels high-level meetings with EU.
“China abruptly cancelled two important diplomatic meetings with the EU this month as tensions between the two trading superpowers build over soaring Chinese exports to the bloc.”
https://www.ft.com/content/5903318c-319b-426e-b05d-062f7620f799?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“A trade war between the EU and China seems inevitable…
“Those sceptical of blaming China argue that Europe’s high energy costs, slow bureaucracies and failure to innovate or integrate are the true culprits. Worse, hampering imports of Chinese materials and parts would harm Europe’s downstream businesses…”
https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/06/11/a-trade-war-between-the-eu-and-china-seems-inevitable
“Germany news: Recession looms as Iran war chokes growth.
“Germany is facing the possibility of a recession as an energy price shock triggered by the Iran war weighs on growth. Economists at the DIW Berlin say that output is likely to shrink slightly in the spring and summer quarters.”
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-recession-looms-as-iran-war-chokes-growth/live-77487978
“Arms maker Diehl in talks to build Ukrainian missile in Germany…
“Chief executive Helmut Rauch said that his company was planning talks in the coming weeks with Fire Point, one of Ukraine’s leading weapons manufacturers and the maker of a new FP-5 cruise missile that claims a range of more than 3,000km.”
https://www.ft.com/content/812b56ff-eb05-4294-9ad2-c9a1b8f1d343
“Poland waits for crucial Patriot missiles, with no firm timeline for delivery.
“Poland could face lengthy waits for Patriot air defense missiles after US arms giant Lockheed Martin said it could not offer allies a firm delivery timeline for the crucial interceptors designed to destroy ballistic and hypersonic missiles.”
“Ukraine war now longer than the first world war – the similarities are unsettling…
“Almost every significant Ukrainian innovation has been met by a Russian adaptation and vice versa. The result has been a continuing cycle of measure and countermeasure rather than a decisive technological breakthrough by either side.”
“On the eve of the harvesting campaign, farmers in southern Russia are reporting fuel shortages…
“”Now diesel costs up to 110 rubles per ton; a year ago, the price was at 72 rubles per ton. But the problem isn’t even the price. The problem is that it’s not available,”— complained Chairman of the Union of Employers of the Agro-Industrial Complex of Stavropol Krai…”
“Former South Korea president Yoon Suk Yeol sentenced to 30 years in prison for sending drones over Pyongyang.
“South Korea’s former-president Yoon Suk Yeol has been sentenced to 30 years in prison for sending drones into North Korea, a move prosecutors argued was aimed at creating a pretext for his failed martial law declaration in 2024.”
“Every slice of China’s bond market has now succumbed to Japanisation…
“China’s economy is sluggish, Chinese real estate continues to struggle, the debt overhang is monstrous, and the country’s demographics are bad. Plus, some investors think Chinese bonds are an attractive, safe diversifier for portfolios, weighing further on yields.”
https://www.ft.com/content/9a2a49cc-2990-45b9-b931-de6828be8d37
“China says Japan has torn off its so-called ‘peaceful nation’ mask…
“Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian made the remarks at a regular press briefing in response to reports that the Japanese government had defended its security policy after a joint statement issued by China and Pakistan in late May referred to opposition to attempts to revive militarism.”
“China Supplies Battle Tanks To Cambodia Amid Thailand Border Row…
“Tensions are once again rising along the Thailand–Cambodia border, a long-standing flashpoint in Southeast Asia. Reports of fresh military developments, including the delivery of tanks to Cambodia, have raised concerns in Bangkok about regional stability.”
“Asia energy crisis at ‘worst’ case scenario, ADB warns.
“The Asian Development Bank has said that Asia is now suffering the lender’s worst-case scenario under the global energy crisis, with 15 countries seeking emergency loans in response to the war in Iran.”
https://www.ft.com/content/087d6ccb-30a9-409e-90ea-b42b897f4fb4?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Why Indonesia’s Rupiah Keeps Hitting Record Lows…
“Investor concerns about Indonesia have, in recent months, been compounded by the Iran war which has driven up energy prices, adding pressure to an economy that is heavily dependent on imported oil.”
“The Iran war is testing the limits of India’s economic resilience…
“The fast-growing economy has been particularly exposed to the conflict. It imports 90 per cent of its oil, 60 per cent of its liquefied petroleum gas and about 85 per cent of the natural gas used to make fertiliser — and a significant portion of these commodities would usually pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”
https://www.ft.com/content/515fe127-519a-4c49-a6cc-f69df335d8e3?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“The Indian government has voiced a “strong protest” after three Indian seafarers were killed in US military strikes against oil tankers travelling through the strait of Hormuz.
“US Central Command confirmed that its aircraft had fired two Hellfire missiles at the engine room of the MT Settebello as it sailed through the Gulf of Oman on Wednesday.”
“Thousands march in Pakistan-administered Kashmir as clashes kill at least 15…
“Authorities in the region have stepped up security, with helicopters flying surveillance flights in the state capital Muzaffarabad as well as in Rawalakot. A helicopter crashed in Muzaffarabad on Wednesday, killing all 22 people on board.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxdyn5716xo
“Pakistan has renewed deadly air strikes on neighbouring Afghanistan, officials in both countries said Wednesday, in the worst violence in weeks following a period of relative calm.
“Pakistan’s government said on Wednesday that 26 “militants” linked to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) group were killed in the attacks.”
“Military strikes on water facilities in Iran may constitute a war crime, experts say…
“The attack on Iran’s water infrastructure comes amid the heat of summer and a historic drought. “Iran’s water crisis has left the country with virtually no margin for error,” said Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at the International Crisis Group.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/11/strikes-water-facilities-iran-war-crime-experts
“A ceasefire in name only: How war in the Middle East is only getting worse.
“Ceasefires have been announced, often to great fanfare, in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. But fighting is continuing on all three fronts… Meanwhile, Iran has maintained its chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz, perpetuating a global fuel crisis, while the US has tried to cement its naval blockade on Iranian ports.”
“Iran has lost its fear of war…
“Diplomatic deadlock is not the only cause of the volatility. It also reflects an emboldened Islamic Republic. Donald Trump has insisted for months that the regime is desperate for a deal. Instead he has been vexed by an Iran willing to tolerate low-level conflict and risk a return to all-out war.”
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/06/11/iran-has-lost-its-fear-of-war
“Iran Attempts to Thwart Iraq’s Disarmament Efforts…
“Political and security sources familiar with the matter told Alhurra on Wednesday that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is pressuring Shiite armed groups to reject any process that would require them to surrender their weapons to the Iraqi state.”
“Israel launches overnight strikes across Gaza.
“Videos shared by Palestinian activists show powerful Israeli airstrikes across Gaza Strip overnight. Palestinian media says the blast in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza targeted agricultural land.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/12/israel-launches-overnight-strikes-across-gaza
“Small Boat Trades Gunfire with Cargo Ship off Yemen as Incidents Continue.
“An incident took place approximately 88 nautical miles from Balhaf, Yemen, in the Gulf of Aden that was likely an attempted piracy. However, it also raised concerns after the Houthis at the beginning of the week threatened to renew their attacks on ships associated with Israel.”
“Ethiopia claims Tigrayan forces preparing offensive against government…
“Hardline elements of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a powerful party with tense relations with Addis Ababa, have “decided to launch an offensive against the federal government in the coming days”, said Ethiopia’s east African affairs minister Getachew Reda…”
“Deadly Sudan drone strike targets funeral procession…
“El-Obeid, currently in the hands of the army, is a key battleground in Sudan’s three-year civil war which began after the leaders of the army and RSF fell out over the future direction of the country. The fighting has created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c70yeee2jvqo
“M23 Guilty of Mass Abuses in DR Congo.
“Human Rights Watch has accused Rwandan military forces and the M23 armed group of carrying out widespread abuses in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The abuses included forced recruitment, arbitrary detention, torture, and killings of civilians and captured combatants…”
https://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00097042.html
“In Cameroon, aid cuts deepen hardship as armed groups seek new recruits.
“Families have lost food assistance, small businesses have lost customers, and residents say economic opportunities are disappearing in communities already strained by a decade of conflict.”
“Violence and Climate Shocks Push Sahel to the Brink.
“Although the crisis in the Central Sahel “largely faded from the headlines”, the UN reports that it has left millions in dire need of humanitarian assistance. Civilian displacement, climate shocks, and widespread hunger are rapidly spilling across borders.”
https://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00097054.html
“Cuba’s seniors struggle under floundering services, US blockade.
“Cuba’s seniors, long accustomed to failing public services, power outages and chronic shortages of food and medicine, are facing even harsher conditions after the Trump administration’s move in late January to cut off the island’s fuel supply.”
https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW771410062026RP1
“The Daughter of a ‘Dictator’ Wins Power in Peru…
“As a teenager, Keiko Fujimori served as first lady to her father, Alberto, an iron-fisted ruler eventually imprisoned for extrajudicial killings. Now, she is following her father into Peru’s presidency as the latest right-wing leader to win power in Latin America.”
https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/the-daughter-of-a-dictator-wins-power-in-peru-d384158
“Trump’s ‘narco‑terrorism’ war in Latin America evokes Reagan – then as now, it’s more about fighting leftists than drug runners…
“Trump’s decision to pardon a right-wing ally – former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández – who was convicted and sentenced to 45 years in prison for drug trafficking and related weapons offenses, appeared to some observers to be “at odds with Trump’s war on drugs.””
“Global AI trade flashing signals reminiscent of the dotcom bust, analysts warn.
“The gap between richly valued stocks and cheaper ones had reached extremes seen only before the dotcom bust in March 2000, according to Bank of America. At the same time, the pace of new listings was matching the run-ups to the 2000 and 2008 declines…”
“SpaceX raises $75bn in historic IPO to put Musk on verge of becoming world’s first trillionaire.
“…not everyone is excited. Veteran short-seller James Chanos on Wednesday called it “a hopes-and-dreams IPO” driven by enthusiasm for Mr Musk and artificial intelligence, rather than the fundamentals of a company that has not yet posted a profit.”
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Bloomberg article unpaywalled:
AI Savings Misses ‘Should Be Making Executives Uncomfortable,’ Bain Says
Among companies measuring their AI cost savings, the largest share (40%) realized reductions of 10% or less. Most had been expecting to see more meaningful improvement.
Basically companies are now legally obligated to due disclose about their profitability antics because of IPO-ization. Of course “everybody knew” about said antics all along, except now they have to pretend to give a shit.
I think my post got blocked because I posted a link to archive . ph (unpaywalling site). That’s fine, here’s the actual article:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-01/bain-finds-corporate-ai-investments-based-on-returns-that-haven-t-arrived
Reality bites!
I’ve posted those kind of unpaywalled links before in my comments and they weren’t blocked so let me try it again and see. Here’s your article
https://archive.ph/wW7gJ
Turns out it was unblocked right after I posted this comment so I assume Captain Pan-O flew in to save the day. 🙂 Notably you Cass and me are the only posters today, which is unusual. Might be an issue with the auto-moderator.
Jupiviv, that was indeed me doing a bit of ninja-moderating. No idea why your comment was held. WordPress has a mind of its own at times.
The ramifications of that article are alarming, as it raises the possibility that mind-boggling amounts of capital have been misallocated. But then lavishly funding our delusions of grandeur is apparently how we are going to keep the game going just a little bit longer. Elon Musk is now officially the world’s first dollar trillionaire, I saw.
Another good one from The Honest Sorcerer:
What If Oil Prices Never Hit $150?
“China, far from becoming the forever growing “electron state” utopia of the future, is rapidly turning into a increasingly self-sufficient and resilient—albeit an eventually shrinking—economy; fully capable to hold out (and even thrive) under what’s already shaping up to be a full scale US blockade. Because, this is where we are headed. The world is increasingly fracturing into a bunch of paranoid bunker states and their satellites, not only competing with each other purely on economic and military grounds—but also actively trying to choke off each other’s supplies of raw materials and energy. Too bad that they’re slowly killing the entire world economy in the process.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/thehonestsorcerer/p/what-if-oil-prices-never-hit-150
Thanks, Cassandra. He references that very good interview with Kpler’s Matt Smith, which I highly recommend and which Heather posted the other day.
I could totally see complacent paper oil markets being jolted into a huge price spike over $150 that is the reverse of the situation we saw with negative prices during Covid, but I basically agree with what he is saying. Prices won’t stay elevated for long under that kind of stagflationary duress.
Governments are going to keep stepping in to subsidise refining operations but if there are physical shortages of the right grades of oil, they can’t do much about that.
Bald eagles Jackie and Shadow need $10 million
Their biggest advocate’s final act was negotiating a deal to protect their habitat. But they still need help.
https://www.popsci.com/environment/jackie-shadow-eagles-fundraiser/
The land is currently owned by RCK Properties and discussions about its development stretch back to 2002. In September 2025, the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors met to discuss the proposed development of over 50 homes and a 55-slip marina to the unincorporated community of Fawnskin.
Foulkes tells Popular Science that, “RCK Properties has no comment on the fundraising effort beyond confirming that we entered into an Option Agreement with the San Bernardino Mountains Land Trust.”
Sandy and the San Bernardino Mountain Land Trust negotiated a limited purchase agreement with the developer and are fundraising to purchase the land for its appraised value of $10 million. The fundraiser has already raised over $3 million with more than one month to go.
“Sandy passed away right after the agreement was signed, so we’re doing this in her honor,” says Voisard. “She put all of that on her shoulders because she wanted to save everything.”
EARTH FIRST!!!
Sure thing, buying up land will protect them…..sarcasm🤑
No offense to you VPK but conservation biologist Mordecai Ogada’s youtube videos have taught me that any conservancy project involving named animals (the names meant to illicit a faux emotional connection to them) is extremely likely to be riddled with ulterior motivations, usually land grabbing by private/corporate interests veiled by goody two-shoes non-profits.
Environmental activist Julia Butterfly Hill lived in a 1,500-year-old California redwood tree, which she named “Luna”, for 738 days (nearly two years) between December 1997 and December 1999. Her protest successfully prevented the Pacific Lumber Company from cutting down the ancient tree and its surrounding grove.Here is how Hill managed this historic environmental protest:The Setup: Her entire living space consisted of two 6-by-6 foot wooden platforms located 180 feet up in the redwood’s canopy.The Living Conditions: She endured freezing winds, violent storms, and intimidation tactics from the logging company (including helicopters flying dangerously close to her platform). A ground crew of volunteers used a pulley system to send her basic supplies and water.The Victory: In December 1999, she reached a landmark agreement with the Pacific Lumber Company. The deal permanently protected Luna and a 200-foot buffer zone surrounding it, and secured $50,000 for sustainable forestry research at Humboldt State University.
In the end this is all window dressing….not saying the intentions are not there or nothing good happens…but in the long run the tree is cut down
We are lucky enough to have golden and white-tailed eagles here on Islay. I spotted one of the latter, which are closely related to bald eagles, at Machir Bay recently – took my breath away.
We also have a breeding pair of hen harriers near my house; I can sometimes see them sailing the air-currents or hunting from my window.
The denied reality the USrael’s War on Iran is fated to drive home: Peak Oil.
having been hidden behind the Wizard of Oz’s curtain, we scramble for an explanation of how we have become such a mess. Denial, rejection of societal responsibility, has become “every man for himself”, that mantra of Capitalism that hammers it into our consciousness that Tomorrow belongs to ME, so that we all forget that there is no safe way out for ourselves when our entire society is sweeping toward destruction. This is so apparent, it’s logic so obvious, that instead of arguing against it, the Ruling Class, the Kept Class, the Entitled Epstein Class, simply dictated that there’s simply no such thing. Society does not exist.
Hence they rig the economy to allocate its entire output to their own use. And here, in the Democracy that bristles with armaments, bustles with geo-engineering modules called cars, leads the world in the manufacture, deployment and use of chemical and nuclear weapons of mass destruction, all to give us the freedom of choice between which lipstick we buy or what manly-man ballroom-a-plenty underpants we sport, the reality of energy awareness sinks into the morass of national forgetfulness, its central role in the demise of not just our civilization, but our very civility, forgotten (even by the small minority who ever knew about it).
https://robertlowrey.blogspot.com/2018/06/the-twin-towers-of-oiligarchy-energy.html
Just an observation the above stimulated: accusations of a rigged election get traction that roils the public for yrs; yet actual overt rigging of the economic system into a proclaimed “New World Order”, so as to deliver its gains into the hands of a few corrupt oligarchs, gets rabid support from tens of millions, in one democratic country after the other. That is the “Irony of Democracy” (Rheinhold Niebuhr). Personally, I prefer the more helpful, more revealing epithet, the Tyranny of Democracy.
“… the reality of energy awareness sinks into the morass of national forgetfulness…”
Rob, it occurs to me that our energy blindness is also mirrored by a food blindness, or at least in wealthier nations it is taken for granted that, however far you fall through the cracks, you won’t actually starve to death. The worsening cost of living crisis and looming energy supply issues may be a crash course in appreciating both again before they disappear almost entirely.
“Geo-engineering modules…” I shall have to drop that terminology into a casual conversation and see what response it engenders. 😄 Mine is actually having its knackered suspension repaired at the garage, so perhaps I’ll have an opportunity when I pick it up.
Repaired… what an old-school concept. 😉
Halfwit Dorks like Musk love throwing down for a duel. Probably why they banned it. Too bad really.
I’m with Honest Sorceror, there will be an initial spike in prices, but it wont last long — as stagflation will then embed itself due to shortages… when there isn’t enough of the input or the right kind of input grade, at any price, no matter how high or low the spot price.
Which reminds me, so many headlines are quoting the oil ‘futures’ pricing, which is not a good indicator, as its just the fantasy investment paper price .. so I have a low opinion of the intelligence of oil investors betting on reality holding off.
“Rob, it occurs to me that our energy blindness is also mirrored by a food blindness, or at least in wealthier nations it is taken for granted that, however far you fall through the cracks, you won’t actually starve to death…”
Yeah, well I’ve started – after several months of incrementally clearing & tilling a chunk of my backyard – a corner of my block was a small veggie plot many years ago, but I just let it fall into weedy overgrowth but have now started unburying the original beds, and laying playground mulch paths etc.
Not that I think my geography will go into serious food shortages, but it will become expensive with energy & transport.