Huge thanks to Kimpton Bradford for being my June sponsor. At his request, this thread is dedicated to his lifelong hero, Dr. David Suzuki, who recently celebrated his 90th birthday.
“Iran launches retaliatory attacks following fresh U.S. strikes.
“The U.S. carries out fresh strikes targeting Iranian military sites in response to the downing of an American army helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz – further straining an already fragile ceasefire. Iran then launches strikes in response, with state media saying forces targeted U.S. military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.”
“Trump ‘trapped in 80-year war between Israel and Iran’.
“Despite Trump claims he is on the verge of a peace deal. But how likely is that given Israel does not want the peace to include its offensive against Hezbollah?”
https://news.sky.com/video/trump-trapped-in-80-year-war-between-israel-and-iran-13552433
“Tech sell-off deepens as oil prices rise on renewed Iran tensions.
“Global stock markets fell on Wednesday, extending a volatile week driven by concerns about rising inflation, potential U.S. interest rate hikes, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.”
“Oil prices are defying a worst-case energy crisis — but workarounds won’t last forever.
“Energy markets’ worst nightmare has been playing out for more than 100 days, but one would hardly know it by looking at crude-oil futures. Experts point at three main reasons for the steady prices but caution that a reckoning is not too far as the Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill.”
“An acute supply crunch resulting from the US-Iran war has left the UAE port of Fujairah, the world’s fourth-largest bunkering port, depleted of very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO).
“Most major bunker suppliers in Fujairah have completely pulled out of the market, reporting zero availabilities for the rest of the first half of June.”
“Sulfur prices have nearly doubled… They are at all-time highs and up 140% since the beginning of the Iran War.
“This ought to have consequences on fertilizer and commodities such as Ags, Nickel, Lithium, Copper, Silver.” [Jack Farley]
https://x.com/JackFarley96/status/2064017630248173624
“The true national debt just hit $1 million per U.S. household.
“The effective U.S. national debt just crashed through $100 trillion for the first time in history, and now stands at an extraordinary 400% of annual gross domestic product — but almost nobody seems to care.”
“‘Rent now, pay later’ loans target US consumers squeezed by housing costs.
“Fintech groups are seeking to capitalise on the growing number of Americans who struggle to pay for housing, offering “rent now, pay later” loans as the cost of living pushes up demand for short-term financing.”
https://www.ft.com/content/114af6b6-74ae-4353-9815-1a15685a038e?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“US stadium and hotel workers threaten strikes ‘to make things fair’ during World Cup.
“Hospitality and food service workers in several US cities hosting World Cup games are warning of looming labor disputes and possible strikes as the largest single sport tournament in the world gets ready to kick off on 11 June.”
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/jun/09/stadium-hotel-workers-strike-world-cup
“The federal government on Monday offered a loan lifeline to airlines struggling to cope with the soaring price of jet fuel, garnering a mixed response from the country’s carriers [Canada].
“The new program will let airlines borrow up to $150 million each, as fallout from the Iran war forces them to slash flight schedules and cut profit forecasts.”
“The European jet fuel crisis that never came — and why it still might…
“…analysts, officials and traders warn that however clever these workarounds are, they can’t hide the brute reality that a massive portion of world energy production still remains stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, or in ruins along its coast. That means energy austerity may be on the cards for Europe.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-jet-fuel-crisis-energy-markets-war-iran/
“Belfast plunged into chaos as vehicles set ablaze following stabbing attack.
“Al Jazeera’s Milena Veselinovic reports from Belfast, where protests over a recent stabbing have escalated into violent riots. Tensions flared after a Sudanese asylum seeker was charged with attempted murder. Riot police have deployed to the scene as buses and vehicles are set alight.”
“UK debt rises at fastest global pace after Botswana.
“Debt growth record: IMF data shows UK debt-to-GDP ratio has climbed from 30.4% in 2001 to 95.5% in 2026, the second-fastest rise globally after Botswana. Economists warn high debt could trigger bond market instability…”
“‘Course correction’: UK economy to contract as ‘energy shock catches up’…
“Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja said production and spending would “remain subdued as the energy shock catches up with households and businesses”, adding that there would be “some course correction” on growth across the country.”
https://www.cityam.com/correction-uk-economy-to-contract-as-energy-shock-catches-up/
“Turkish forces harass aircraft carrying European defense ministers to Cyprus…
“Radio communications with the aircraft were disrupted by controllers operating from the Ercan airport near the town of Tymbou in the Turkish-controlled northern part of Cyprus, Greek and Cypriot officials told POLITICO. In addition, two Turkish F-16 fighter jets took off and tracked at least one of the aircraft…”
https://www.politico.eu/article/turkish-forces-harass-aircraft-carrying-ministers-into-cyprus/
“Europe’s Energy Crunch Revives Rival African Gas Pipelines…
“The ground-breaking ceremony in Algeria’s southern desert came scarcely a month after neighboring Morocco signaled it would raise funds for its own $25 billion pipeline. It will hug the Atlantic coast, linking gas fields in Nigeria, Senegal and Mauritania with the North African kingdom.”
“EU proposes entry ban for Russian Ukraine combatants.
“The bloc is also planning further restrictions on various industrial sectors, on the banking industry and cryptocurrency assets, and on Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of ships accused of helping circumvent sanctions on things like oil sales.”
“Despite official EU ban, imports of Russian Arctic LNG still surging.
“European imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia’s Yamal project rose sharply in the first five months of 2026, new data shows. Between January and May, more than 8.3 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) were to shipped to EU ports…”
https://euobserver.com/220669/eu-contract-ban-fails-to-bite-as-russian-arctic-lng-shipments-surge/
“Russia Slashes Oil Exports As Fuel Shortages And Drone Attacks Bite.
“Russia is preparing to sharply reduce crude oil exports this month as mounting refinery disruptions, fuel shortages, and Ukraine’s bombing campaign force Moscow to divert more barrels into the domestic market.”
“Crimea fuel lines grow as Ukraine expands drone war deep into Russian energy heartland.
“Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil facilities trigger fuel shortages across Russia and occupied Ukraine, with long queues in Crimea and panic buying in Krasnodar; Kremlin admits problems as Zelensky says aim is to bring war ‘home to the Russians'”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/b1isxll11fe
“North Korean farms grind to a halt as fuel shortages cripple rice planting season.
“Fuel shortages are forcing North Korean farms to abandon mechanized equipment during the critical rice transplanting season, with workers left to haul seedlings by hand as authorities continue to trumpet agricultural progress.”
https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korea-fuel-shortage-rice-planting-season/
“China reaffirms Japan rare earth ban despite US request.
“On Tuesday, the Chinese government reaffirmed that the export ban remains in place, with Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Lin Jian reiterating that rare earths remain classified as “dual-use materials” under Chinese laws that prohibit their export to the Japanese government for military purposes.”
https://www.mining.com/china-reaffirms-japan-rare-earth-ban-despite-us-request/
“Japan’s new defense document to name China the biggest concern.
“Japan’s Defense Ministry is expected to designate China as Japan’s most serious concern in the ministry’s annual white paper, Nikkei has learned, while committing to deeper cooperation with the U.S. and like-minded nations to enhance capabilities for deterrence.”
“Chinese coast guard patrols spark fresh dispute after Taiwan alleges ‘harassment’ of commercial shipping…
“On Saturday, Chinese media reported that ships had been sent to carry out a “special maritime traffic law-enforcement operation” in the waters east of Taiwan in response to the announcement by Japan and the Philippines.”
“Why Cambodia and Thailand’s Peace Is So Uneasy.
“Six months after fighting ended between Cambodia and Thailand, their relationship remains dangerously unsettled… The cease-fire remains in place, but as recently as May, Thailand accused Cambodian soldiers of firing shots along the border.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/10/cambodia-thailand-border-maritime-arbitration/
“Inside Myanmar, rebels are losing ground as military forces men into army…
“In many parts of the country, the rebels are now on the back foot against the military, who seized power in 2021 from the democratically elected government, jailing its leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Civil war has torn the country apart. Thousands have been killed and millions displaced.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20y6966xqzo
“Iran war sparks cancer drug shortages in India…
“Stocks of cisplatin and carboplatin, two of the most widely used chemotherapy drugs in the country, have begun running dry over the last three weeks, doctors and pharmaceutical industry representatives have said. The two closely related drugs are derived from platinum…”
“Deadly protests in Pakistan-administered Kashmir: What’s going on?
“At least 11 people were killed on Sunday during clashes between police and protesters in Pakistan-administered Kashmir’s Rawalakot city, capital of Poonch district, before a major demonstration scheduled by a banned civil society group for Tuesday.”
“Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict escalates again after airstrikes kill at least 13 people…
“The two nations have engaged in months of fighting that has already killed hundreds of people and displaced many more. Afghan government spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said the latest airstrikes targeted the provinces of Khost, Kunar and Paktika…”
“‘Anything but normal’: Uncertainty as Iranians try to get by amid US war.
““You get used to it at some level and eventually keep going about work and conversations like everything is normal, but the truth is that this is anything but normal,” he told Al Jazeera, asking to remain anonymous.”
“‘Please send help’: Crew’s distress call after ship hit by US missile.
“The Indian crew of a sanctioned oil tanker urged authorities to “please help” after the ship was hit by a US missile off Oman on Monday, saying it was on fire and sinking in a distress call shared with BBC Verify. US Central Command (Centcom) said the ship, Marivex, had violated its blockade of Iranian ports…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq51ep28165o
“The Clock Is Ticking Down To Iraq’s Economic Disaster On 27 July.
“Iraq faces a critical July 27 deadline as its oil pipeline agreement with Turkey expires, threatening one of its only major export routes after the Strait of Hormuz closure. Turkey holds significant leverage in renewal talks, reportedly demanding higher transit fees, investment commitments, and broader energy partnerships.”
“Israeli air strikes hit Lebanese city of Tyre despite Iranian warning to stop attacks…
“Iran warned that it could hit Israel again if it did not stop attacks in Lebanon. But Israel vowed to continue its campaign against Hezbollah. The conflict is complicating President Donald Trump’s efforts to strike a deal to end the war between the US, Israel and Iran.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c36y16nkr5no
“Lebanon Is Teetering at the Abyss of a New Civil War.
“The government of Lebanon is barely able to manage the basic requirements of statehood. It can provide electricity for only a few hours a day, and people avoid its flattened currency in favor of dollars. Its military is only the second-most-powerful force in the country after Hezbollah…”
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/lebanon-civil-war-cb8f63e1
“‘Forever Chemicals’ found in Israeli crops as explosive fallout from Gaza war comes under scrutiny…
“They are causing severe contamination of water wells, delaying development work in Sde Dov after being detected in the soil, and now, for the first time in Israel, they are being found in agricultural produce: PFAS chemicals, which are linked to a long list of health problems, have been detected in potatoes…”
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/til3x7umw
“The plague of rodents terrorising Gaza…
““These big rodents have been feeding on bodies under the rubble and their numbers have multiplied,” said Shinbary. “They come into the tent and chew on our clothes. Every day we have to throw something out.””
https://www.ft.com/content/b0255c34-bd58-4c08-9d32-41c857e11f01
“Houthis renew Red Sea blockade on Israel…
“Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the Iran-backed group was imposing a “complete ban” on Israeli maritime traffic in the Red Sea and would consider any Israeli vessel a military target.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkk7z1nzmx
“Heavy fighting erupts between Yemeni government forces, Houthis in Hodeidah…
“According to Al-Yemen TV, the fighting broke out after the Houthis launched a large-scale attack on government military positions in the Hays district south of Hodeidah province. It reported that the government forces repelled the assault…”
“TPLF Power Grab Sparks Fears of Return to War…
“Observers say that after consolidating power, the TPLF’s first move might be to try to forcibly take control of western Tigray, a disputed territory that was a flashpoint for violence during the recent civil war.”
https://adf-magazine.com/2026/06/tplf-power-grab-sparks-fears-of-return-to-war/
“Sudan war: Drone attacks damage key aid routes…
“A senior UN official addressed how the Sudan war is affecting Chad in a briefing to the Security Council on developments across the Central Africa region. “With the conflict in Sudan in its fourth year, its direct impact on Chad cannot be overemphasized,” Martha Pobee, Assistant Secretary-General for Africa, told ambassadors on Tuesday.”
https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/06/1167688
“DR Congo’s curbs on cobalt spark squeeze in vital battery element.
“Smelters are scrambling to find alternatives to one of the main raw materials used to make rechargeable batteries, as an export clampdown by dominant producer the Democratic Republic of Congo sends prices soaring.”
https://www.ft.com/content/bdbec7cc-bf40-47b0-bc87-48923e5f6b04
“Mali’s Generals Promised to Bring Peace. Things Are Now Much Worse.
“Mali’s security crisis has collapsed into a devastating spiral of violence, completely undermining the primary rationale of the military junta that seized power in 2020… Jihadists have nearly tripled their attacks on urban areas.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/06/world/africa/mali-rebels-fighting-jnim-isis.html
“Cuba’s iconic antique cars sit idle as US energy blockade deepens fuel crisis.
“A worsening fuel crisis across Cuba is testing the island’s famed “almendrones,” the vintage American cars that serve as vital shared taxis and embody the island’s ingenuity and endurance.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/cuba-havana-trump-chevrolet-people-b2991540.html
“Bolivia approves military measures against nationwide protests.
“Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz has authorised military force against protesters amid the country’s worst economic crisis in 40 years, after roadblocks paralysed the nation. At least 10 people have been killed since the unrest began.”
“BP drops net zero division in wake of boardroom turmoil…
“The latest move highlights BP’s ongoing retreat from renewables. The oil and gas giant had attempted to go green under Bernard Looney, its former chief executive, although it has since sought to reverse this after pressure from investors such as Elliot Investment.”
“Financing of new fossil fuel sites surges in 2025…
“…the latest figures show that banks continue to fund the expansion of fossil fuels, with new finance to the industry increasing by 8% year on year. Against the backdrop of a global energy crisis, funding for key fossil fuel sectors increased significantly, with even coal reporting an increase in new funding.”
https://www.netzeroinvestor.net/news-and-views/financing-of-new-fossil-fuel-sites-surges-in-2025
“Whey protein shortage looms as use of weight-loss drugs fuels global demand…
“The price of whey has risen fivefold to record levels as companies race to secure supplies amid a boom driven by growing use of GLP-1 drugs, such as Mounjaro, which often require higher protein intake to preserve muscle mass.”
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No peace on Earth man!
Wouldn’t that be lovely, Truth Wizard…
Thanks Kimpton!
Pano, you wrote this sad and scary sentence yesterday: I would really love my youngest to reach adulthood, which he will in late 2030, before things get too dire.
How old is he now if you don’t mind sharing?
Thank you indeed, Kimpton.
Flippr, he’s thirteen and really quite a character. It’s a lot of fun watching him grow up.
Worrying about the kids’ futures is the worst thing about seeing what’s coming down the pipe, which is probably very parochial and anthropocentric of me but there it is.
The country fragility index is quite interesting. I was surprised how high Turkiye and Congo DR are, and how low most Central American states are. It would make a bit more sense if it included separate categories for climate vulnerability, energy security and remaining resource production capacity.
The actual categories show an implied assumption that almost everything can be sorted through politics and economics.
S1: Demographic Pressures
S2: Refugees and IDPs
C3: Group Grievance
E3: Human Flight and Brain Drain
E2: Economic Inequality
E1: Economy
P1: State Legitimacy
P2: Public Services
P3: Human Rights
C1: Security Apparatus
C2: Factionalized Elites
X1: External Intervention
https://fragilestatesindex.org/global-data/
George, thank you – it is a good list to geek out to, if imperfect, as you say. It dates back to 2024. I wonder if Syria in 4th place will have confounded everyone and dropped a few places.
“Syria flips the script. It’s an island of calm in the stormy Middle East… Water is plentiful [actually they’ve just had too much of it, causing flooding along the Euphrates], electricity is around the clock. At night, the capital city and surrounding countryside are largely lit up, a far cry from the dark expanse that engulfed greater Damascus a few months ago.”
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2026/0609/syria-peace-economic-growth-popular-mood
At least there’s a little extra fake money to throw at the precious airline industry, so we have that going for us.
It’s not so much the Airline Industry as it is the tourism it enables: from Europe to Australia, Oceania to the Caribbean, entire economies depend on the airlines to ferry a constant stream of tourists to their shows to pump cash into their otherwise moribund economies.
One government subsidy is the the TSA, paid by taxpayers to keep “Private Enterprise” profitable for its well-heeled Epstein-class investors.
But the TSA has nothing on the TFA:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/06/260609025509.htm
These are forever chemicals that are raining down on the planet everyday, everywhere. Manufactured to solve the problems with the ozone layer, they have instead made it worse.
Corporate profits are all that matter, so in what scenario does it ever make sense to have corporate “solutions “ to address climate issues?
Turning every single existential problem into a revenue stream is their bailiwick, not actually resolving the dilemma; yet time after time the “listen to the science “ crowd hands over their future to self-serving, profit-hungry – by legal mandate, no less – corporate entities.
If there’s any solution, it’s in their dissolution.
So there is no solution.
All excellent points, Rob. Pedal to the metal. Full speed ahead. Icebergs be damned!
I did not know that about the chemical rain. Aghhhhh!!
And spot on about the “listen to The Science” crowd. So much of science has been corrupted.
Deep breaths/sighs, my friends.
Thanks Rob.
“If there’s any solution, it’s in their dissolution” is my new mantra.
Rob, nice rant and thank you for the interesting paper re TFA’s.
The banning of CFCs has long been held up as an example of how humans can take collective action to avert dire environmental outcomes. Of course, there was a sting in the tail.
An interesting fact is that had we chosen bromine instead of chlorine as a basis for refrigerants, which was a possibility at the time, if less likely, then the ozone layer, along with us, would have disappeared before we even knew what was happening as they are much more efficient catalysts.
I’ve been collapse aware for slightly over a decade now and never before did I feel anxious about it as a palpable thing in the very near future. It was always 20 years away, which used to be an in-joke among collapsers. Not so much these days. To be a teen or a 20 something living in the current conjuncture… this crumbling civilization is the only one you know and have adapted to. It’s tragic in a way that a single human soul cannot encompass or express… a historical and civilization failure.
Jupiviv, It is probably a blessing that my mind cannot fathom the scale of the tragedy we are unleashing.
The only thing worse than collapsing is not collapsing.