Many thanks to my friend, Barry Smiler, for being May’s sponsor. Do take a look at his website, which nicely complements mine: Climate News · Research · Perspectives. He recently upgraded the site and welcomes any feedback you’d care to offer.
“Climate Change Is Creating a New Kind of Weather Disaster…
“The findings, published today in Nature, show that the frequency of compound events—such as concurrent hot-wet and drought-heat extremes—is linked to cumulative CO2 emissions. Alarmingly, the researchers predict that the frequency of rarer and more severe compound events will escalate rapidly…
“In addition to setting more aggressive emissions reduction targets, Zhang and his colleagues urge policymakers to rethink their risk management plans, as current strategies may not be sufficient to protect people and infrastructure from the rising threat of compound extremes.”
https://gizmodo.com/climate-change-is-making-extreme-weather-events-team-up-2000757706
“Within two weeks the peak of the “Super-duper El Niño” NOAA mean peak forecast has increased by almost 0.5°
“And more and more model runs are off the chart of the 4°C y-axis! Who in the world is (getting) ready for this?”
[Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/2054124091179696546
“For the first time, in all this time, we have reached the Niño threshold, according to the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) index.
“If this holds steady or increases, we will have officially entered Niño territory.”
[Capitan Clima]
https://x.com/Climawcosta/status/2054234356936274201
“Super El Niño could reshape catastrophe risk pricing, insurers warn…
“Insurers are increasingly responding by reassessing catastrophe models and incorporating longer-term climate trends into underwriting assumptions. This reflects growing recognition that historical baselines may no longer fully capture the frequency or severity of extreme weather events.”
https://www.itij.com/latest/news/super-el-nino-could-reshape-catastrophe-risk-pricing-insurers-warn
“April data for “Total Column Precipitable Water” just came in, and once again a new record was set for the 36-month running average over the Northern Hemisphere, Mid-Latitudes, where over 50% of all humans live.
“Can you spot the trend?”
[Prof Elliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2054294641592418634
“The Arctic is getting wetter during the month of May across many regions of the Arctic Ocean.
“The largest trends are closer to areas of greater sea-ice loss toward the Atlantic Ocean.”
[Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3mlrhchsxy22e
“Surfers to launch nationwide protests over failing water system [UK].
“Thousands of surfers across the UK are set to stage a nationwide protest on Saturday against the deteriorating state of the country’s water sector. Led by Surfers Against Sewage (SAS), the “paddle out” demonstrations at over 50 locations will target the private ownership model, which campaigners blame for widespread industry failures.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/surfers-against-sewage-protests-uk-b2976242.html
“Why does Guernsey dump raw sewage into the sea?
“…Prof Bing Guo, of the University of Surrey, warned that sewage being discharged so close to the shore could have an adverse impact on swimmers and make people sick. One swimmer told the BBC he unknowingly went through the sewage…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0p19v0ge8o
“After winter storms, fires now threaten Portugal’s forests…
“A team of forest firefighters, civil protection officers and military personnel are out clearing trunks littering forest tracks that provide vital access routes to tackle blazers. “This area is a real powder keg,” said Paulo Vicente, mayor of Marinha Grande…”
“Greece’s Water Crisis Is Becoming an Economic Crisis.
“Greece faces an uncomfortable contradiction: it’s economic engine depends heavily on sectors that cannot function without reliable water and runs hardest during the hottest and driest months of the year.”
https://www.tovima.com/opinions/greeces-water-crisis-is-becoming-an-economic-crisis/amp/
“12 hospitalized after torrential rains trigger severe floods in northern Turkiye….
“The heavy rainfall late on Tuesday caused rivers in the Havza district of Samsun province to overflow, sending waters rushing down streets, carrying vehicles and debris. Anadolu said the basement and ground floors of several properties were submerged.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2643411/amp
“AFRICA HISTORIC HEAT. The worst ever in history of Sahel:
“Weeks with 46/48C and Nights >35C [95F]. Today crazy MINIMUM of 36.0C Nioro du Sahel, MALI HOTTEST NIGHT EVER. Yesterday 47.0C Aioun Al Atrouss MAURITANIA all time high tied. On the weekend world history will be rewritten anew.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2054271633653690425
“Millions of farmers in Africa’s Great Lakes region face rising temperatures. Study predicts how crop disease and pests could spread…
“Losses to disease and pests are often higher in low-input agricultural systems, where there is limited access to agricultural infrastructure and inputs like fertiliser and pesticides, as is common in sub-Saharan Africa.”
“The most insane event in Southern Hemisphere history goes on – 38C again in MOZAMBIQUE with record broken again at Caia
“35C again in SOUTH AFRICA with Record warm nights like the Min 18.5C at Addo… Minimum 27.5C [81.5F] Europa Island, FRENCH SOUTHERN TERRITORIES Hottest May night in history (pulverized).” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2054243002252403078
“Drones now key to fighting malaria as the climate crisis fuels ‘catastrophic’ rise in cases.
“On an oppressively hot day in Tanzania’s largest city, Dar es Salaam, Leka Tingitana, the director of aerial research company Tanzania Flying Labs, walks out to the middle of a university cricket field and launches a drone into the bright blue sky.”
“Somalia is in a deadly drought again. Most humanitarian aid isn’t there this time.
“Most of Abdi Ahmed Farah’s hundreds of goats have died. It has not rained steadily in this part of Somalia for three years, something the 70-year-old never thought possible. He is in debt from buying water.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/somalia-people-mogadishu-united-states-puntland-b2976285.html
“Ancient Euphrates River Is Disappearing And People Are Linking It To The Bible.
“The declining water levels of the Euphrates River have sparked environmental concerns and renewed debate over biblical prophecy, although experts continue to blame climate change and water mismanagement for the crisis.”
“Extraordinary heat persists in WEST AND SOUTH ASIA.
“IRAN is living its most extreme period in history (also meteorologically). Weeks with Minimums >30C in the SW and Maxes 45/47C every day. Never happened anything like this in May.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2054157448038998134
“Modeling and in situ observations show that the 2025 ice losses are unprecedented in Central Asia.
“2% of total ice volume has gone in a single year! This may become the new normal in the future!” [Melaine Le Roy]
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/2054576829629936048
“Jammu & Kashmir faces looming water crisis amid prolonged rainfall deficit.
“Declining water levels are also beginning to affect rivers and streams across the region, posing a serious challenge for hydroelectric power generation. Authorities fear that reduced river discharge could significantly impact electricity production during the peak summer season.”
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN INDIA.
“Insane heat wave in India and Pakistan with records smashed in pieces every single day. 48.3C [118.9F] at Barmer… 47C again with 34C at night in Rajashtan… 46.5C at Ratlam ALL TIME RECORD.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2054503675330961656
“No trees, no fans: surviving extreme heat in India’s salt pans…
“Up to 50,000 workers in Gujarat spend eight months in the remote salt pans without electricity or healthcare, relying on a tanker to deliver drinking and washing water every 25 days. They use shaded rest breaks, cloth-cooled water bottles and staggered hours to survive.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/environment/2026/05/13/climate-change/extreme-heat-india-salt-pans/
“Torrential rains kill 90 in India’s Uttar Pradesh…
“Most fatalities were caused by lightning strikes, falling trees, and collapsing walls amid extreme weather. According to Indian media reports, intense storms accompanied by heavy rainfall and hail caused chaos across multiple districts of Uttar Pradesh.”
https://www.samaa.tv/2087350637-torrential-rains-kill-90-in-india-s-uttar-pradesh
“The heatwave continues to affect northern China today, with 10 stations broken or tied their May hottest records, and 8 stations broken their mid-May records.
“Zhuolu reached 39C [102.2F]. The record-breaking heatwave is expected to continue tomorrow!” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/2054558382464598519
“Rainstorms, severe weather forecast across southern China…
“Starting Friday, a new round of widespread precipitation will sweep across central and eastern China. Regions including parts of southwestern China are expected to see heavy to torrential rain, with some areas experiencing extreme rainfall accompanied by strong winds.”
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202605/14/WS6a055edca310d6866eb489b4.html
“HISTORIC HEAT IN THE PHILIPPINES.
“Harshest heat wave ever recorded. 9 days >39C [102.2F] at Tuguegarao with record hot nights. Historic Minimum 27.5C. HOTTEST NIGHT IN HISTORY (data since late 1800s). Thousands of records have been smashed all over Philippines for over 1100 consecutive days.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2054152299589582981
“Historic heat continues in MALAYSIA.
“Crazy Minimum 28.3 Kudat. Minimums constantly >29C in VIETNAM in the Spratly Islands. The Min. 28.5 at Manokwari is also the May Second Hottest night in all INDONESIA history.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2054156021673665006
“Living by sun and sea: Indonesia’s salt farmers battle climate, costs…
“Declining yields are testing the resilience of local farmers, whose livelihood depends on the fickle cooperation of weather and tide. “Last year’s harvest was not that big,” said Ipin, 38, a farmer in Rawaurip village. “It was the wet dry season — rain when we needed sun.””
https://english.news.cn/20260513/b2669bac0be94949baad620524458929/c.html
“In Northern AUSTRALIA it’s also a 24/7 sauna despite being 3 weeks from winter.
“Tonight the Minimum of 26.4C [79.5F] at Point Fawcett was the highest ever recorded in May. Hundreds of records have fallen this month allover Australia and the rest of Oceania.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2054575662480920807
“Scientists discover the Southern Ocean is “sweating” more as climate change intensifies.
“A remote island between Australia and Antarctica is showing signs of a dramatic climate transformation. Scientists found storms over Macquarie Island now unleash much heavier rainfall than they did decades ago, soaking ecosystems and altering fragile vegetation.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/05/260512202337.htm
“China and Norway push to increase krill harvests around Antarctica.
“Meanwhile, several NGOs have recently stepped up their campaigns against krill fishing, arguing that the krill fleet competes for food with Antarctic wildlife species already struggling with climate change and reduced food availability such as emperor penguins and Antarctic fur seals that have both recently been declared endangered.”
“Rio Grande do Sul’s farmers battle ever more extreme weather [Brazil]..
“Over the past few years, the state’s agricultural sector has been hard hit by climate change, from droughts to extreme flooding, which have caused enormous economic damage. That blow has, in turn, added to the amount of bad debts in the industry.”
https://www.ft.com/content/1b55747c-33c6-4e43-8e24-4ca294237353?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Terrible heat wave in COLOMBIA with widespread Minimums 25/28C and Maxes 35/39C at low elevations.
“Several departments are with record heat levels like the town of Monteria which has recorded its May hottest nights 3 times already with a record highest Minimum of 27.2C [81F].” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2054706548807434628
“Guanacaste Forest Fires Break Costa Rica’s 2024 Record.
“Guanacaste is facing one of the most severe forest fire seasons Costa Rica has ever recorded, with the province alone now reporting more fires in 2026 than the entire country registered during 2024, the previous record year for this type of emergency.”
https://ticotimes.net/2026/05/13/guanacaste-forest-fires-break-costa-ricas-2024-record
“National May record in HONDURAS again!
Choluteca ,the “oven” of Central America and one of the world’s hottest places, rose to 42.2C [108F], re-breaking The “Catracho” national record of May highest Temperature that it had just broke few days ago. Record heat will go on for weeks.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2054355823116070969
“Hundreds of records smashed all over Mexico in nearly every State. Mind blowing 45.0C [113F] in The Morelos State at >1000m asl. A world record heat for May for that elevation.
“Salina Cruz broke both its Highest Max 41.3C and Highest Min 29.5C.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2054097423912316969
“Heavy Rain Triggers Flooding and Travel Disruption Across Mexico City.
“Heavy rain flooded roads across southern Mexico City on Monday night, May 11, as authorities deployed emergency crews to assist stranded motorists. According to El Universal, torrential rainfall swept across several parts of the capital, trapping vehicles and submerging major roads.”
“Something startling is happening in the Gulf of Mexico.
“n 2012, the temperature of the Gulf of Mexico began rising along a shocking upward trajectory… The trend has continued into the 2020s, with sea surface temperatures hitting record highs in both 2024 and 2025. The shift has huge implications for the hurricanes that form in the Gulf…”
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/05/something-startling-is-happening-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/
“Corpus Christi, Texas moves toward mandatory 25% cut in water use if emergency is declared.
“Corpus Christi residents and businesses — including one of the nation’s largest petrochemical corridors — may be required to cut water use by 25% during a water emergency that city leaders expect to hit by September unless a devastating drought eases.”
https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/12/texas-corpus-christi-water-emergency-restrictions-vote/
“Arizona, Nevada and California would still have to take massive cuts in their Colorado River water supplies under a new, preliminary plan devised by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Arizona water officials said Wednesday.
“Reclamation would require the three Lower Basin states to give up a total of up to 3 million acre-feet annually…”
https://tucson.com/news/local/environment/article_0c1d13a0-c909-4d34-ad1b-4f766b605983.html
“Lake Powell, the 2nd-largest reservoir in the US, is over 80 feet lower than it was 8 years ago and 170 feet lower than the last time it was nearly full in 1999.
“Spring snowmelt inflows are projected at just 13% of normal, the lowest on record. The lake could fall to 3,490 feet as soon as August, roughly 30 feet below the previous all-time low.” [Colin McCarthy]
https://x.com/US_Stormwatch/status/2054264876391133300
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT WAVE – 116F/46.7C Death Valley. Never been so hot so early…
“And there is no end in sight in any foreseeable future.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2054479141102072040
“BOISE — A whopping three heat-related records were broken Tuesday thanks to a hot air mass that made its way into the Treasure Valley…
“Tuesday’s high also marked the earliest the region has ever seen a temperature at or above 96 degrees, Jackson Macfarlane, meteorologist at the NWS Boise, told the Idaho Press.”
“USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought.
“U.S. farmers this year will harvest their smallest wheat crop since 1972, as a severe drought in the U.S. Plains has curbed production of hard red winter wheat, the largest variety grown in the U.S., the Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday.”
https://www.agweb.com/news/usda-projects-smallest-us-wheat-harvest-1972-due-plains-drought
“Birds dying along California beaches as marine heat wave intensifies.
“Seabirds are washing ashore along Southern California beaches, weak, emaciated, and in some cases dead, as warmer waters push fish farther offshore and out of reach. Wildlife rescue centers and officials say they are seeing more birds arrive underweight and exhausted.”
https://eu.desertsun.com/story/weather/2026/05/13/california-marine-heat-wave-birds/90062208007/
“Some seas may soon be trapped in near-permanent heatwaves, scientists warn.
“A new study of 19 enclosed seas found that resets after heatwaves may stop happening. Some are on track to spend more than 330 days a year locked in heatwave conditions. Not a temporary extreme. A new permanent state.”
“‘Insect apocalypse’ is already fueling malnutrition in some regions, first-of-its-kind study reveals.
“Insects are disappearing, and they are leaving global food security gaps in their wake. Over the past three decades, bugs have been declining at an alarming rate across the globe — up to 1% per year, by some estimates. The drop has been so intense that some scientists have dubbed it an “insect apocalypse.””
“The global sand crisis: it’s being used up faster than it can be replaced.
“…a new UN report warns that sand is being extracted faster than it can be replenished, and that this is threatening livelihoods, ecosystems and the very structure of the natural world.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/12/global-sand-crisis-land-reclamation-extraction
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
Wicked round-up.
Food inflation going to be insane in a few months.
Agreed TW but I guess we should be happy if there’s any food available at all. Here’s a story about an ongoing mouse plague in Australia. The solution? Stronger poison!
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/13/nx-s1-5816004/a-severe-mouse-plague-puts-australian-crops-in-danger
This is the last thing Australian farmers need on top of everything else.
Any creature (humans included) will tend to be pretty grotesque en masse, but I rather like mice.
“A Mutation Gave Humans the Gift of Speech. These Mice Have It, Too… In the balmy cloud forests of Central and South America, nightfall is marked by operatic calls of Alston’s singing mouse, a small, short-tailed rodent famous for its courteous communication…
“Scientists have long wondered what enables these mice to have such uncannily complex conversations without the help of human brains. But as it turns out, our brains may not be so different.
“In a new study published Wednesday in the journal Nature, researchers found that a simple expansion of existing neural pathways allowed these mice to broaden their vocal repertoire — the same mutation believed to have paved the way for the development of human language.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/science/a-mutation-gave-humans-the-gift-of-speech-these-mice-have-it-too.html
Survivalist mentioned Nate Hagens’ interview with Art Berman that came out yesterday. You have to watch it:
https://youtu.be/Gk6xm5IuY4w?si=YUBq_h6z3MVWTy_Z
Thanks Mike and Survivalist, great interview for sure. For those who would prefer to read it: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/TGS-220-Art-Berman-Transcript.pdf
Thanks, Mike! I listened while I washed dishes, etc. Some takeaways:
– war elevated looting to scale (from Luke Kemp). Looting being the basis of economies for millenia
– humans are better than we think but humanity is not (spot on, IMO)
– AI is fundamentally a military tool – surveillance and weapons. The most data centers are around Washington DC
Art ended with a bit of hopium about the future, how adaptable and clever humans are. True enough but we still live in meat suits that can’t survive above certain wet bulb temperatures, heading our way.
Thanks, Mike. They don’t pull many punches re the gravity of the situation, even if I disagree with Nate that a 1930’s-style crash will be the worst of it when our debt chickens come home to roost.
They also reference Vaclav Smil’s research, which suggests that the production of IC’s four building blocks – cement, steel, plastics and ammonia – is past peak. We also know that crude oil + condensate production has peaked (barring some miracle) and is being replaced with less energy-dense liquid fuels.
In other words, in real material terms, the global economy itself is past peak and has been for perhaps five years.
Thanks for reposting Mike B.
That one made me buy more food preps. My mom thinks I have a problem.
“U.S. farmers this year will harvest their smallest wheat crop since 1972, as a severe drought in the U.S. Plains has curbed production of hard red winter wheat, the largest variety grown in the U.S., the Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday.”
Well you know how everyone’s saying we’re too coddled and conflict-averse these days. Chronic starvation and soccer moms selling their bodies for baby formula would fix that right up!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wH7zPD7jLM
Jupivivv, I remember 1972 and the crisis of a wheat blight that occurred over the poor wheat harvest. If my memory serves me right, we were rescued by the imports from other nations, like Soviet Union. A side note of interest, the blight was brought under control, if my memory serves me correct, by selecting strain that were resistant to it. Quess where the strains were located? In poor undeveloped farming communities that preserve their seeds and we’re not caught in the web of commercial agribiz hyper varieties.
The sad part, these rural villages received zero, yes zero, nada from the agribiz giants.
There’s a good book on the subject written a some time ago titled “Shattering”, those interested should look it up. We have created a darth genetic variety of just about all commercial crops today. Yes, we are on the razors edge…
Another interesting mash-up there, Jupiviv. 😎
Unfortunately, this dire wheat crop will mean less exportable surplus, so it won’t just be US soccer moms affected. Let us hope it is not a harbinger of multiple breadbasket failures with this El Nino. At best, we are all staring down the barrel of higher food prices.
US drought map released today, not looking good: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
“It’s incredible how they (central banks) maintain the system as if nothing is happening. The biggest energy crisis in history, and the stock markets are unchanged and at all-time highs.”
Quark’s latest: https://tinyurl.com/4fcz6zwb
It is amazing. I wonder if they will still be this sanguine when the full force of the energy supply shock hits.
https://abcnews.com/GMA/News/us-students-performing-worse-school-10-years-ago/story?id=132911868&cid=social_twitter_abcn
Meanwhile schools are in really bad shape no wonder the younger generations don’t understand basic science stuff. I helped tutor a neighbor daughter during lockdown and the online education was absolutely abysmal. No wonder no one can read or write.
I guess it is part of the general societal decline in the waning superpower, Heather. Sad to see, though.
Deliberate.
In UK SATs test were brought by Thatcher, maintained by Labour and increased by Tories, starting at 6-7 years.
This is Gradgrind education.
Gove even brought in grammar construction, poor little souls.
Every day you are given questions and answers to learn by heart.
Every day you are drilled in them,
Ask a “why” question, you are told it does not matter – this is the question, this is the answer, learn it.
Over time this causes significant damage to the thinking skills of children. in particular the ones who do not read books at home, or who do not have relatives with the time to chat with them, (even worse now with screens). This leads to a cohort of humans with no critical thinking, with social anxiety and with depression.
They began tests in state schools, in USA, back in the 1950’s.
The rest of Europe see this as a form of deliberate abuse, with Finland leading the way – no tests at all until late teens.
What government, in its right mind, wants a population that can think and ask questions? Who can utilise their 85k neurons, each with 2k-10k synapses? I mean, good grief!, how could we ever justify AI machines if we have humans with functioning brains?
https://fortune.com/2026/05/12/lake-tahoe-data-center-49000-residents-power-source/
This is nuts power goes to data centers and homes no power in Tahoe area. Then tech companies wonder why they are hated so much. After living in reno for 8 years that area is openly corrupt its sad.
Heather, another interesting titbit of info in that Nate Hagens / Art Berman discourse is that dispatchable electricity in the US has actually fallen over the last 20 years.
A fellow doomer and neighbor sent me this yesterday:
>>Costa Kapothanasis on X: “Just got word Mobil and Shell have informed Costco and Walmart they have no packaged product to send them and to expect bare shelves in the motor oil section in a few weeks” / X<<
So I got my oil changed today lol. My friend just bought five gallons of motor oil. He said there were only five left.
Interesting times.
I meant quarts.
Things are getting more real and insane by the day. The Jurassic park is in the process of shutting down. Hold on to your butt!
I love the Surfers Against Sewage:
Wetsuits: Neoprene is produced by free-radical polymerization of chloroprene. In commercial production, this polymer is prepared by free radical emulsion polymerization. Polymerization is initiated using potassium persulfate. Bifunctional nucleophiles, metal oxides (e.g. zinc oxide), and thioureas are used to crosslink individual polymer strands.
Surfboards: are made from a host of different materials. Generally speaking, a board consists of a rigid polyurethane foam core, which is then outfitted with an outer shell of polyester resins or fiberglass.
The stringer, if it exists on the board, is that thin strip of wood that runs down the center from the tip to the bottom. This will usually be made up of basswood, spruce, or redwood, though at times, surfboard makers will also fashion them out of fiberglass.
They are literally dressed in and riding atop toxic waste, the processes used to manufacture which, are themselves heavily toxic, discharging voluminous amounts of waste water (I believe that’s called “sewage”).
Surfing is a spoiled whiteboy “sport”, that, like ATV’ng, promotes guilt-free (somehow) pleasure for bored 🥱 lieabouts.
Ah, well. I suppose we’re pretty much all mired in hypocrisy of one sort or another, Rob.
For me, surfing conjures up a laid-back, anti-materialistic, sun-kissed vibe, which probably has nothing to do with reality but which rather appeals from my chilly, northern fastness.