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“The financial system is a giant polycrisis waiting to happen…
“Systemic risk, in an investing context, typically focuses on contagion within the financial system – one institution’s failure transmitting stress to others. A polycrisis is broader, occurring when simultaneous crises in different systems – fiscal, geopolitical, technological, monetary – interact in ways that accelerate each other and cause outsized harm…
“…unlike 2008, when a crisis originated in one sector before transmitting stress outward, today potential problems are distributed across multiple different systems, ready to synchronize and amplify. Markets can climb a wall of worry, but they cannot climb a maelstrom.”
“Trump calls Iran’s response to peace plan ‘totally unacceptable’ as ceasefire frays.
“Donald Trump has rejected an Iranian response to a US peace proposal as “totally unacceptable”, on a day the month-old ceasefire showed signs of fraying as drone strikes were reported around the region and Benjamin Netanyahu warned the war was “not over”.”
“Oil Market Runs Down Safety Cushion as Supply Shock Worsens…
“Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, experts say it could take many months to rebuild depleted inventories. Rising prices and supply shortages are starting to destroy demand, especially in Asia, while continued U.S.-Iran tensions increase the risk of a deeper and longer-lasting global energy crisis.”
“Coal shipments jump as countries seek alternatives to disrupted gas supplies…
“Coal shipments normally slow down in April and May when the heating season in the northern hemisphere nears an end but in recent months coal was the largest cargo by volume for medium-sized vessels…”
https://www.ft.com/content/94346fc1-ab8b-4113-98dd-0045bddb391f
“The Middle East conflict has triggered a “super squeeze” in the global sulphur and sulphuric acid markets, driving prices to record-breaking levels…
“Spot prices for sulphuric acid have surged more than fivefold, exceeding $800/mt in some markets due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a sudden Chinese export ban.”
“State Dept. escalates trade row with China over Iran war ahead of Trump-Xi summit…
“The State Department this week sanctioned three Chinese companies it accused of aiding Iran in its war against the U.S., the latest in the back-and-forth between the two countries just days before President Donald Trump will meet with China’s leader Xi Jinping in a high-stakes confab in Beijing.”
“The federal government must issue more debt than it expected as cash flow weakens, and ‘the bond market is shouting’.
“For Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial, the borrowing update is the latest example of the immense supply of fresh debt that the Treasury Department is issuing.”
https://fortune.com/2026/05/09/us-debt-treasury-bonds-government-borrowing-cash-flow-yields-fed/
“Global Bond Vigilantes Circle UK Economy After Labour Polling Disaster.
“Sovereign debt markets are exhibiting pronounced volatility following a disastrous showing for the Labour Party in recent local elections, triggering intense speculation that radical leadership changes could invite the wrath of global bond vigilantes.”
https://streamlinefeed.co.ke/news/bond-vigilantes-lurking-after-labour-poll-bloodbath
“How the Iran war is impacting food production lines across Europe.
“The war in Iran has already affected flights and the cost of fuel, but it could soon affect food prices too. Sky’s Alistair Bunkall visits a tomato farm in Puglia, Italy, where fertiliser – which comes through the Strait of Hormuz – has shot up in cost by 50%.”
“European carmakers take €8bn hit from Trump tariffs…
““The operating environment has deteriorated significantly,” Volkswagen’s chief financial officer Arno Antlitz told investors last month, warning of US tariff costs of €4bn this year. “Against this backdrop, incremental cost measures will not be enough. We must fundamentally reshape our business model.””
https://www.ft.com/content/bc9b78d2-cb92-4607-b9a0-f10c330f24d3?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Germany in fresh push to buy Tomahawks after Trump row…
“The transactional approach highlights the sense of urgency in the German capital after the Pentagon last week said a US long-range fires battalion due to be deployed this year as part of prior Nato arrangements would instead be reassigned elsewhere.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c64f6c88-36f8-4721-a201-4cd77992fa90?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Putin hints at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine, but why now?
“…Speaking after Victory Day events in Moscow, Putin said on Sunday that he was ready to hold direct talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Moscow or a neutral country… The remarks reflect mounting pressure on both sides after more than four years of war that has devastated parts of Ukraine and strained Russia’s economy.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/10/putin-hints-at-ending-russias-war-in-ukraine-but-why-now
“North Korea abandons goal of reunification with south.
“According to North Korea expert Rachel Minyoung Lee, reunification remained a long-term goal for both Koreas for decades after the split. Pyongyang’s removal of that objective from its constitution signals a tougher, more permanent break.”
https://www.dw.com/en/north-korea-abandons-goal-of-reunification-with-south/video-77105800
“China warns against rising Japanese neo-militarism, urges sincere remorse from Japan.
“A Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman on Saturday issued a stern warning against the rise of Japanese neo-militarism, urging Tokyo to abandon its dangerous ambition of military buildup and demonstrate a genuine willingness to face history with sincere acts of remorse…”
“Hokkaido Faces Garbage Bag Shortage as Panic Buying Spreads.
“A shortage of designated garbage bags began emerging in Hokkaido’s Hokuto City in late April, with residents reporting that the bags had disappeared from store shelves and become difficult to purchase.”
https://newsonjapan.com/article/149167.php
“New Zealand Outlines How Potential Fuel Rationing Would Work…
“In phase four, critical users — who include emergency services, health workers and schools — would have priority and uncapped access to fuel, while food, freight and other commercial users would also have uncapped access subject to demand reduction requirements imposed by the government. The general public would face transaction limits at the pump.”
“Asia braces for a second wave of energy shocks from the Iran war…
“Governments now face a stark choice between maintaining costly fuel subsidies, straining public finances, or cutting them to pass higher costs on to consumers, risking a public backlash, said Ahmad Rafdi Endut, a Kuala Lumpur-based independent energy analyst.”
“Philippine debt service payments more than doubled to P737 billion in first quarter.
“Officials attributed the jump to higher domestic debt servicing, which saw P386.735 billion go to domestic obligations and P77.539 billion used to settle external principal repayments.”
“Indonesia’s debt wall hits an economy running on borrowed time.
“Indonesia is entering a critical test of its fiscal resilience. Beneath the government’s optimistic narrative of a stable economic growth rate of around 5% lies a structural anomaly carrying significant systemic risks.”
https://asiatimes.com/2026/05/indonesias-debt-wall-hits-an-economy-running-on-borrowed-time/
“Surging fuel prices are squeezing Nepal’s middle class…
“When the conflict in West Asia began, Anil Neupane didn’t think it would reach into his wallet in Kathmandu. But the Dolakha native, who commutes from Shankhamul to a driving center where he works in Radheradhe, Bhaktapur, now spends nearly 35 percent more on fuel than he used to.”
https://asianews.network/surging-fuel-prices-are-squeezing-nepals-middle-class/
“Modi urges Indians to WFH and limit foreign travel as Iran war continues.
“Prime Minister Narendra Modi has appealed to Indians to revive working from home, buy less gold and limit foreign travel to deal with a surge in global energy prices because of the continuing crisis in the Middle East.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8r8e2ne1v6o
“Bannu Checkpoint Attack Kills at Least 15 Pakistani Security Personnel Near Afghan Border.
“Attackers rammed an explosives-packed vehicle into a police checkpoint on the outskirts of Bannu, near Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan, late Saturday, killing at least 15 security personnel and triggering an ambush on rescue teams and law enforcement officers who arrived after the blast.”
“Food inflation hammers households in war-hit Iran…
““The people must realistically understand the conditions and restrictions of the country,” President Masoud Pezeshkian told a group of officials who gathered on Sunday to discuss rebuilding structures damaged or destroyed in US and Israeli attacks.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/10/food-inflation-hammers-households-in-war-hit-iran
“Iran’s banks defy Trump financial sanctions to keep business as usual for regime…
“For as long as Iranian state-owned banks such as Bank Mellat have been the target of American sanctions, they have grown equally adept at evading them. The same goes for the regime as a whole…”
“Iran mulls taking full control of all 7 undersea internet cables passing through Strait of Hormuz.
“The undersea cables carry a large share of global data traffic between Europe, the Gulf, and Asia. Tehran proposes to impose a toll for submarine cables that provide internet communications. Iran also wants all management and maintenance handled exclusively by domestic companies.”
“Military escalation | Two drones attack vicinity of checkpoint of “National Guards” in Al-Suwaidaa [Syria].
“Al-Suwaidaa province: Two drones attacked the vicinity of a checkpoint of the “National Guards” in the same frontline that was attacked a few hours ago in north west Al-Suwaidaa.”
https://www.syriahr.com/en/382137/
“Israeli weapon fires tiny metal cubes into people in Lebanon, like Gaza.
“The same tiny tungsten cubes that spray out of Israeli bombs, causing devastating internal injuries to people in Gaza are being found in wounded civilians in Lebanon, war surgeon Dr Tahir Mohammed says.”
“Israel needs more troops to join ‘immediately’ amid ‘collapsing’ army.
“Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir said on Sunday that the army needs more soldiers “immediately,” amid the escalating crisis surrounding the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews, or Haredim, and the continuation of military assaults on several fronts.”
https://www.trtworld.com/article/97606a6f3b19
“Yemen Faces Accelerating Economic Collapse Amid War , Regional Tensions.
“Yemen’s economy is bleeding at an unprecedented pace, as war and regional tensions drive capital and investment out of the country, deepening one of the most complex financial and livelihood crises in its modern history.”
https://yemenonline.info/special-reports/12540
“Conflicts in the Middle East are increasing dangers for whales off South Africa by shifting sea traffic into their habitats and heightening the risks of collision…
“The rerouting of shipping around South Africa and away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal since late 2023 has “substantially increased” the chances of ship strikes, they said in new research.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/middle-east-conflicts-danger-whales-safrica-study
“South African consumers brace for fuel price hikes amid cost-of-living crisis…
“Despite government’s extended fuel levy relief experts and trade unions have warned that it will not be enough to shield workers and the economy from a looming price shock driven by global oil market turmoil.”
“‘It’s like we went bankrupt overnight’: poorest Somalis suffer as piles of worthless shillings mount up…
“Amid global food price rises and Somalia’s ongoing drought, poor people are bearing the brunt of the effects of an economy that is becoming completely “dollarised”. Somalia is one of the most remittance-dependent countries in the world.”
“Tremors in South Sudan are a warning of worse to come.
“South Sudan is nearing a phase more dangerous than the civil war that ended in 2018. Earlier violence revolved around elite competition in Juba; now instability spreads from the collapse of the state’s economic core and inward from a regional conflict…”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2642951
“Sudan: How One of the Most Severe Humanitarian Crises Became Marginalized in the Global System.
“As violence evolves into a war economy sustained by resource control and starvation tactics, traditional mediation tools have proven ineffective. The result is a widening gap between the scale of human suffering and the international system’s willingness to respond.”
“Rebel fighters kill at least 69 people in northeastern DR Congo.
“Two ethnic groups – the Hema and the Lendu – have been locked in a long-running violent conflict in Ituri, a gold-rich province that borders Uganda and South Sudan.”
“Nigeria says dozens of terrorists killed as troops repel assault on base.
“Since 2009, the country has been battling the Boko Haram and Daesh-WAP terrorist organisations operating in the region. The military said the terrorists were killed on Thursday as forces fought off a Daesh-WAP assault…”
https://www.trtafrika.com/english/article/9172686dc9e0
“Dozens killed in jihadist attacks in central Mali.
“Jihadist fighters launched a fresh wave of deadly attacks in central Mali that killed dozens of people, local and security sources said on Saturday. One local official said the latest attacks brought the death toll to more than 70…”
https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20260510-dozens-killed-in-jihadist-attacks-in-central-mali
“Venezuela’s leader to defend her country’s claim over mineral-rich Guyana region before UN court…
“Venezuela has considered Essequibo its own since the Spanish colonial period, when the jungle region fell within its boundaries. But an 1899 decision by arbitrators from Britain, Russia and the United States drew the border along the Essequibo River largely in favor of Guyana.”
“Venezuela warns of ‘serious’ environmental impact from oil spill off Trinidad and Tobago.
“Venezuela says an oil spill that originated in Trinidad and Tobago, two islands just off its coast, had caused serious environmental damage along the coastlines of at least two Venezuelan states and in a gulf area near the Caribbean island nation.”
“Deepwater Horizon poisoned the Gulf. If the Trump administration gets its way, it could happen again.
“For Exhibit A, look at the White House’s recent decision to greenlight BP’s latest deepwater drilling endeavor over vociferous public objections. The project, Kaskida, is far deeper and riskier than Deepwater Horizon. It targets oil six miles below sea level — deeper than Mount Everest is tall, and nearly twice as deep as the Deepwater Horizon.”
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
NZ fuel plan.
Phase 1: do nothing
Phase 2: do nothing
Phase 3: do nothing
Phase 4: Oh shit!
😂
I don’t think they will be alone in this, Craig.
“Hell isn’t having no choice. It’s having to make a choice between horrific things.”
– Don Winslow
An alternative perspective: “We are each our own devil, and we make this world our hell.”
― Oscar Wilde
Above all, don’t lie to yourself. The man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point that he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others. And having no respect he ceases to love.”
Though the quote was written in the 19th century, it seems to have much to do with life today. In a world of social pressure, online appearances, competition, and emotional confusion, many people struggle not with lying to others but with being honest with themselves. Dostoevsky’s words transcend morality. They address identity, emotional health, self-respect, relationships and the human inclination to avoid uncomfortable truths.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/books/features/quote-of-the-day-by-fyodor-dostoevsky-above-all-dont-lie-to-yourself-the-man-who-lies-to-himself-and-listens-to-his-own-lie-comes-to-a-point-that-he-cannot-distinguish-the-truth-within-him-or-around-him-and-so-loses-all-respect-for-himself-and-for-others-and-having-no-respect-he-ceases-to-love-/amp_articleshow/130975062.cms
Hmm, who comes to mind …not pointing any fingers…but we’re winning and they got nothing… they’re begging for a deal…right..but you killed his Daddy
“It is a matter of self-awareness.”
Vince, Eckhart Tolle argues that when Jesus said of the Roman soldiers, “Forgive them, father, for they know not what they do,” he meant it literally, ie those inflicting harm on others are so locked into their conditioning and thought patterns that they are basically asleep at the wheel and just unconsciously acting out their karma.
Are you still able to breathe after reading today’s thread?!?
Dog humor break (1 minute)
https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/2053437556025405939?s=46
Cassandra, that was just what I needed. I’m also a cat person too. Addicted watching them
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_MHExgEaJwQ
Lost the battle, but the war is not over…purrfect
Hahaha that’s great. I can relate! I am ruled by both cats and dogs.
Thank Gawd for animals, like my cuddly Black Lab, and indeed adorable animal videos. 💙
Apparently the CIA thinks Iran can hold out for another 4 months. I think it is delusional to believe the CIA or the US (or any other) state would willingly broadcast its goals and motivations. Nevertheless, it is possible to infer them. They’re trying to pull off what they’ve done repeatedly since the end of WW2. Maximize pressure on all fronts upon a recalcitrant nation until something breaks internally, then move in and ensure every competing faction complies with US/NATO financial hegemony.
What’s interesting, is that this isn’t working quite as well as before, but at the same time isn’t being replaced by anything fundamentally different. Literally a dead end. Neither side knows what to do or how to proceed, except secure their own buttocks and those of their friends-with-benefits… insofar as the various sets of cheeks press up against each other in fast spasmodic motions guided by the ordered chaos of hardstyle jungle twerk edm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7o3F-MVE-Y
Jupiviv, I was myself curious as to the CIA’s motives for publicising this report, which seems to suggest the US is actually in a position of relative weakness.
I suppose it could be signalling that the US is ready and willing to sustain pressure on Iran over time… not a good outcome for the global economy, obviously.
https://www.ft.com/content/08aba5e4-5834-4e79-a48d-989a2c5bad0f?syn-25a6b1a6=1
You things are bad when ai debt goes the way of 2008 housing crash dummies