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“…the odds keep rising for the strongest El Niño in a century…
““Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s,” wrote Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the State University of New York at Albany. Records for El Niño began around 1850.” [“Pretty crazy that the ECMWF BOM and CFS forecasts all exceed the strongest El Ninos on record“; Jeff Berardelli]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/05/06/el-nino-record-weather-impacts/
“…did I mention that the global sea-surface temperature hit a preliminary record daily high yesterday, beating the previous record daily high set in 2024?
“Here are the updated global SST color-stripes:” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2052045157927993574
“New global temperature projection range by Zeke Hausfather for 2027 reaches as high as +1.9°C!!
““His error bar is so large as to make his prediction useless for any purpose other than covering one’s posterior”. The error bar now spans 0.59°C!” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/2052125738682204443
“Following the warmest April on record, Norway offers 38 areas in the Barents Sea for drilling.
““The warmest April ever recorded in Northern Norway,” reported the Meteorological Institute in a statement released on the same day that the Norwegian government announced plans to open dozens of new offshore blocks to the oil and gas industry.”
“From record cold to record heat: 30C in Belarus and Ukraine today after the heavy frosts recorded few days ago.
“Tomorrow we might see even 31/32C [89.6F] in Ukraine, at record hot level for early May. Few days ago they had down to -5C!” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2051687571885822419
“Hundreds of firefighters struggle to contain massive Carpathian wildfire [Ukraine].
“Firefighters and forestry workers continue to extinguish a forest fire in the Verkhnii Volovets forestry in the Mukachevo district of Zakarpattya Oblast, State Emergency Service (SES) reported on May 6.”
“Pilot dies after firefighting plane tackling major forest blaze crashes in Poland.
“The aircraft came down in Solska Forest in the southeast of the country, Poland’s interior minister said on Wednesday. The fire broke out on Tuesday afternoon near the village of Kozaki, in Lublin province.”
“Slovakia hit by extreme drought as farmers fear sharp fall in harvests.
“Slovakia is facing one of its most severe droughts in decades, with meteorologists warning that April was the driest since records began in 1881 and farmers increasingly concerned about major crop losses and possible food price increases later this year.”
https://spectator.sme.sk/business/c/slovakia-faces-its-worst-spring-drought-in-more-than-a-century
“How dry are high elevations in the Alps? Insanely dry…
“See the Périades Glacier, between Mont Mallet (3,989 m) and Dent du Géant (4.013 m), with ice already visible everywhere in steep slopes above 3,500 m above sea level.” [Melaine Le Roy]
https://x.com/subfossilguy/status/2050854248796090393
“Video: dramatic mudslides hit villages in northern France…
““Around 45mm of rain fell in 40 minutes, that’s enormous,” said mayor of Puisieux, south of Arras (Pas-de-Calais), Jacques Bonnay, a commune impacted by mudslides to FranceInfo. This sudden rain mixed with mud on the ground, which was already loose from previous rainfall, causing it to cascade downhill.”
https://www.connexionfrance.com/news/video-dramatic-mudslides-hit-villages-in-northern-france/789001
“Severe weather, heavy hailstorms across half of Lombardy [Italy]…
“Hail in the area of the Giovi state road completely covered roads and gardens. The area between Cermenate, Lomazzo, and Cantù was hit particularly hard. It transformed the landscape from late spring to winter, creating significant traffic problems.”
“Two pufferfish have appeared in Galicia, and their arrival is not just a marine curiosity but a small warning about the warmer future moving toward Spain…
“The Atlantic off northwest Spain is slowly taking on more tropical traits, and two recently confirmed pufferfish are now being treated as a warning sign.”
“Spain records warmest April on record with average temperature more than 3C higher than normal.
“The State Meteorological Agency confirmed that April 2026 was more than 3C above normal, marking a significant deviation from historical averages. Temperatures remained consistently above seasonal norms throughout most of the month, with only a brief cooler spell recorded between April 11 and 13.”
https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2026/05/05/spain-records-warmest-april-since-1950/
“Tunisia’s Water Crisis Worsens as Droughts Strain Economy, Farms and Infrastructure.
“A new African Development Bank report warns that Tunisia is facing an escalating drought crisis driven by climate change, water mismanagement and growing pressure on limited resources, threatening agriculture, food security and economic stability.”
“RECORD HEAT IN GHANA:
“Ghana has been breaking heat records for years, every single month, and this May 2026 is not an exception. The Minimum of 27.2C [81F] at Akuse is the Highest Minimum ever recorded in May.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2051952920090866010
“More than 200mm of rain pounds Garden Route, floods force evacuations and road closures [Western Cape, South Africa].
“More than 200mm [eight inches] of rain has been recorded in the Bitou municipal area, and Knysna recorded 197mm. Parts of the Garden Route District Municipality have been battered by severe weather conditions since Wednesday morning.”
“SOUTHERN AFRICA RECORD HEAT:
“More records for May – SOUTH AFRICA: 36.2 [97.2F] Empangeni, HIGH MINIMUMS: 22.4 Durban, 13.9 Lanseria, 12.3 Van Reenen, 11.7 Ficksburg, 11.5 Bethlehem, MADAGASCAR: 34.5 Diego Suarez. Hotter next days, possible 40C in Malawi!” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2051736281923657995
“Mogadishu Floods: Heavy Rains Flood Roads, Houses With Muddy Water in Somalia.
“Heavy rains have triggered severe flooding in Mogadishu, submerging low-lying areas and key roads across the city… The floods highlight growing concerns over extreme weather patterns and urban drainage challenges in the region.”
“EXTREME HEAT IN WEST ASIA:
“47C [116.6F] in Iran and at 46.5C Al Ahsa, Saudi Arabia – record heat for early May. 40C also in Central Asia in Turkmenistan. After a short break, in about a week the heat will become even worse up to 48C and beyond.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2051735602932908290
“Alarming rise in mercury forecast as heatwave alert issued for country [Pakistan].
“Heatwave alert has been issued for Sindh, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and southern Punjab from today (Thursday) until May 11 as daytime temperatures in most areas are expected to fluctuate between 46 degrees Celsius and 50 degrees Celsius [122F]…”
https://www.24newshd.tv/07-May-2026/alarming-rise-mercury-forecast-heatwave-alert-issued-country
“AI helps track rapid glacier loss in Kashmir’s Himalayas…
“In one study, Rashid examined the Kohalai Glacier – often referred to as the “water tower” of Kashmir – and found that it has lost nearly a quarter of its surface area over six decades. Its snout, the glacier’s lowest point, has retreated by approximately 900 meters (2,950 feet) since 1978, reflecting a broader regional trend.”
“‘Indian Niño’ drove record heat in 2023 and 2024, new study finds.
“The IOD, sometimes called “Indian Niňo,” refers to the difference in sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean’s western and eastern sides. Depending on the year, the western side can be warmer or cooler than the eastern side by varying degrees…”
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-indian-nio-drove.html
“Sugarcane farming fuels water crisis in Maharashtra.
“Sugarcane is used to produce the biofuel ethanol, as well as molasses. But the crop is leading to declining groundwater reserves in drought-ridden areas in Maharashtra.”
https://www.dw.com/en/sugarcane-farming-fuels-water-crisis-in-maharashtra/video-77001109
“Hong Kong experiences an ‘exceptionally warm’ April.
“Hong Kong’s weather was exceptionally warm last month, with the city recording its second highest mean temperature for April, the Hong Kong Observatory said Tuesday.”
https://www.chinadailyasia.com/hk/article/633015
“Unusual May coolness in The Okinawa Prefecture, JAPAN:
“Today few stations had their lowest Temperature on record in May, but only Tokashiki was opened before 2000. Its Min. of 13.7C [56.7F] beats the old record of 14.0C from 1991.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2051597472342953984
“Several areas in the Klang Valley have been hit by flash floods following heavy rain and strong winds, with main roads inundated by rising floodwaters. [Malaysia]
“New Pantai Expressway (NPE) Infoline reported a full closure of the Kuchai Link, from Sungai Besi to Jalan Klang Lama, at 3.55pm following flash floods.”
“Flooding has again hit Bogor Regency, West Java, since Monday afternoon (May 4, 2026), inundating hundreds of homes in seven villages across five sub-districts…
“The impact of the heavy rain was not only felt in residential areas but also disrupted public transportation operations.”
“Another record hot night on the coast of Queensland, AUSTRALIA.
“Summerlike Minimum 24.5C [76.1F] at Seventeen Seventy. It trashed its record of May warmest night by over 2C.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2051596018425135307
“El Niño means “Emergency” for the Galápagos Islands!
“See that dark shade? That’s 20+ weeks of marine heat stress which NOAA says means “Near Complete Mortality” of shallow water coral, and threatens all the life associated, including a life-threatening event for the already “Endangered” Galapagos Penguins…” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2052062166488940815
“Chile approves US$5 billion megaproject to draw almost 1.7 million tons of water from the Pacific every day, desalinate the sea and push the resource 480 km to cities and mining companies in the world’s driest desert…
“On May 4, 2026, Chile approved the Aguas Marítimas project, a US$5 billion undertaking that plans to capture 1.685 million cubic meters of Pacific Ocean water per day in Caleta Bolfín…”
“Brutal heat in SOUTH AMERICA:
“39.2 [102.6F] Puerto Suarez BOLIVIA May record pulverized – one of the highest temperatures ever recorded in May in the Southern Hemisphere. PARAGUAY min 23.0 San Juan Bautista – May Highest Minimum… 37.0C at Tarija BOLIVIA 1854m May record… Insane heat also in CHILE – 35.6 Tierra Amarilla.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2052140297178497100
“Deforestation may push Amazon degradation threshold below 2°C warming.
“”Deforestation makes the Amazon far less resilient than we previously anticipated. It dries out the atmosphere and weakens the forest’s own rainfall generation,” said Nico Wunderling, PIK scientist and lead author of the study. “Even moderate additional warming could then trigger cascading impacts across large parts of the forest.””
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-deforestation-amazon-degradation-threshold-2c.html
“RECORD HEAT IN ECUADOR:
“Ecuador has been with record heat for years and the anomalies are just getting worse. 34.4C [93.9F] at Santa Rosa is a new record of May highest Temperature, after breaking the record of the previous month.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2051945301750018491
“Another exceptional heat wave in Mexico and Central America with up to 44C [111.2F] at 1000m asl in San Luis Potosi State.
“Record again in COSTA RICA: min 21.9C San Jose Pavas Airport – hottest May night on record.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2052069272352858321
“Massive marine heatwave caused Caribbean coral reefs to collapse much faster than predicted – new research.
“Across the North Atlantic, including the Caribbean, the heat stayed for months, with heat stress two-to-three times higher than reefs had ever experienced. Heat stress, the phenomena of high temperatures putting fragile ecosystems under pressure, can permanently alter their ability to function.”
“‘Not just hot water’: Marine heat waves can create toxic relationship between seagrasses and microbes.
“Heat stress from marine heat waves can create a toxic relationship between seagrasses and a hidden ecosystem of bacteria, transforming a previously beneficial co-existence between marine plants and microbes into a harmful one, a University of Sydney and UNSW study has found.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-hot-marine-toxic-relationship-seagrasses.html
“Drought deepens across Central Plains, slashing winter wheat outlook [US].
“Southwest Kansas farmer Gary Millershaski says his area has only received a quarter-of-an-inch of precipitation since last fall. “For us to get a 30-bushel crop, you’ve really got to be optimistic and believe in prayer. That’s a fact.””
“Alaskan megatsunami bigger than Empire State Building triggered by climate change.
“A tsunami at a popular tourist spot in Alaska was the second highest ever recorded and it was “unbelievably lucky” no one was hurt, researchers have said. The wave at the Tracy Arm Fjord in the Tongass National Forest was triggered by a rock landslide which was driven by climate change.”
“Human Activity Is Causing Major River Deltas to Sink up to 20 Times Faster Than Sea Level Rise— and With Them, a Global Food System…
“The world’s deltas are subject to a “double burden” of rapidly rising sea levels due to climate change, along with sinking land — subsidence driven by local processes including aquifer pumping for drinking water and agriculture, along with impacts from upstream dams that greatly reduce water and sediment flows.”
https://www.zmescience.com/ecology/sinking-deltas-threat-food/
“Climate models struggling to capture human impact on storm tracks…
“…a study has shown that one of the reasons rainfall is so hard to predict is because climate models are underestimating the shifts in large-scale wind patterns, such as the jet stream, that control storm tracks and rainfall distribution.”
“Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere just hit a ‘depressing’ new record.
“The amount of carbon dioxide detected in the atmosphere hit a record high in April. CO2 levels averaged about 431 parts per million (ppm) over that month, according to data collected at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.”
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The highest recorded El Nino 3.4 SST was around 2.7 in 2015/2016, 1877 may have been a bit more. Currently that is the low limit of the ECMWF plume, which is pointing at around 3.5 to 4. The heat in the Pacific goes down much deeper than in previous events, which I assume would mean the higher temperatures would not only be higher but also longer lasting.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes?base_time=202605010000&nino_area=NINO3-4
Projected 2026 average temperature has been gradually edging up, now at 1.54, but about to go shooting as one GFS rum is predicting temperature anomalies over 1.8 within the week.
https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#global
However when local temperature extremes are regularly being broken by 2 and 3 degrees there’s much bigger issues than just a steady upward rise, however steep and steepening, and one that no computer is ever going to be able to model over more than a few weeks at best.
Thanks George, here’s the latest from the Climate Prediction Center.
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
I think the evidence is growing that the relatively stable holocene was freakishly unlikely. I don’t think there is a specific item in Drake’s equation for “stable enough and just warm enough for agriculture” but it may be the main explanation for the Fermi paradox. The stability hasn’t just been about temperature swings but somehow things have been just right to keep the hydrologic cycle predictable and propitious for crop yields – and that is all falling apart at astonishing speed.
I’ve always looked at that flat line, commencing at the Holocene and the intersection with the onset of human farming and thought that perhaps changing land used patterns and intentional fires for clearing agricultural and contributed to that stable warming period. In short, it’s our first example of human induced climate alteration.
Sorry for the errors. Voice activated text is really a pain.
Mike, that’s a very interesting hypothesis.
George, perhaps the stable Holocene was a Goldilocks epoch on a Goldilocks planet. Guess we are very lucky in the cosmic scheme of things.
Re this potent El Nino, I fear we will have a hyperactive Atlantic storm track bombarding us with brutal storms towards the end of this year.
Enunciate!!
Think I’ll buy more food preps.
George, I read this in a piece yesterday and wonder what your thoughts are about it:
“This is in addition to discovering 225 large and medium-sized crude oil and natural gas fields; including 13 oil fields with reserves exceeding 100 million tons and 26 gas fields with reserves exceeding 100 billion cubic meters — China shall become an energy power of it own.”
I’m skeptical, of course, but you know a lot more about this topic than I do.
1300 million tonnes would be around 10 billion barrels but if they are LTO there’s only about 5% recovery so 500 million, which isn’t much. Even conventional would be 3.5 billion, which would support 500,000 bpd and not really earth shattering. It normally takes a few years of appraisal drilling and analysis to confirm that discoveries are commercial and a lot turn out not to be (i.e. their EROI would be less than 2.5 to 3).
China had a spurt of offshore drilling that led to an production increase from 2017 (actually a recovery to the production seen then but that has flattened out and maybe falling now (the rig count has dropped a lot). Without a bit more detail I can’t guess at much else but Rystad and the likes will probably have included some of these fields in their summarises for the last few years.
Thanks! Along the lines of what I suspected.
Thank you, George. I posted an article the other day that mentioned a water constraint on China’s own LTO ambitions:
“Much of China’s shale resource sits in regions where water is scarce. Hydraulic fracturing requires significant volumes of water, and in those regions, it simply isn’t available at the scale needed for rapid development. That example points to a broader issue that is starting to surface across the global energy system.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2026/05/03/why-water-scarcity-is-emerging-as-a-key-energy-constraint/
Surrealism, Warming and Wishful Thinking
The warmest April ever recorded in northern Norway. The announcement appeared almost simultaneously with news that Norway is once again opening dozens of offshore blocks in the Barents Sea for oil and gas exploration. The kind of juxtaposition that has become so common that hardly anyone still notices the surrealism of it.
As if two realities exist side by side without ever truly touching each other.
On one side come the climate statistics: melting permafrost, unstable ice conditions, shifting ecosystems, temperature records in regions where snow and ice once formed the permanent backdrop. On the other side, maps, licenses and exploration plans continue to move across conference tables as though the future still consists of expansion, growth and new fossil frontiers.
That does not mean Norway is acting irrationally. On the contrary. From an economic and geopolitical perspective, the logic is entirely understandable. Europe needs gas. Older fields are declining. Russia has become an uncertain supplier. The Norwegian state still depends heavily on energy revenues. So the Barents Sea is once again presented as a strategic frontier.
Yet hidden inside this is a remarkable paradox.
The very warming that makes the Arctic more accessible is simultaneously destabilizing the physical environment in which that infrastructure must operate. Ports, pipelines, platforms and logistical networks are increasingly exposed to shifting storm patterns, thawing ground and a far more erratic climate regime.
The Barents Sea is therefore slowly changing from a dream of abundance into something else entirely: an expensive and highly complex attempt to prolong existing energy flows for a little while longer.
Many expectations surrounding the far north resemble an older form of industrial wishful thinking. As if somewhere beyond the horizon there still lies one final great province capable of compensating for decline elsewhere. But here too, geology, thermodynamics, climate and economics begin to collide.
Perhaps the truly surreal aspect is not that drilling continues.
The truly surreal aspect is that a civilization can simultaneously register record-breaking warming while continuing to behave as though the physical foundations beneath its energy system remain fundamentally unchanged.
A case in point, Zip, is in Pan’s listing today: sucking up the last of the groundwater in Maharashtra to fuel machines with “renewable” ethanol from sugar cane. Meanwhile the US has started adulterating its gasoline with ethanol this month, processing almost half of last year’s crop while famine is approaching parts of the world because of the USrael war on Iran. Even as its own farmers go bankrupt at a record pace, with fertilizer. Diesel, and drought threatening agricultural production alarmingly, the churning of crops into fuel for machines while people face starvation continues unabated.
Now that is surreal… but I’d prefer it if it were cereal.
Zip, Norway is the UK’s primary source of imported energy. Nearly half of our gas comes from there. So from an immediate, economic standpoint, this is probably good news for us.
However, it is questionable whether the global economy will still be functioning in the five-to-ten year timespan it would take to bring that production on-line.
Rob, I’m afraid biodiesel is going to become a more attractive option as diesel shortages bite:
“Malaysia expands palm biodiesel use as rising oil prices boost palm demand… Government officials said biodiesel is being positioned as a practical short-term alternative fuel that can reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels while supporting domestic palm oil consumption.”
https://www.globalcosmeticsnews.com/malaysia-expands-palm-biodiesel-use-as-rising-oil-prices-boost-palm-demand/
“Following the warmest April on record, Norway offers 38 areas in the Barents Sea for drilling.”
But but but but there are a lot of EVs in Norway, so nothing to see here. Everything’s fine.
Oh, and how much heat is added by the Accelerated Insanity used to track (and melt) glaciers?
Accelerated Insanity… That fits very nicely, Leaf. 😂
Wow, even FOX news is reporting on it..
New data reveals 100% chance of strong ‘Super’ El Nino forming this year
The FOX Forecast Center said an El Niño of this caliber being predicted so early means it could be an event to look back on for years to come.
By Hayley Vawter Source FOX Weather
The latest long-range European forecast shows there’s a 100% chance of a super El Niño, potentially suppressing hurricane activity and making for a wetter fall and winter in the southern U.S.
Now I call that very objective reporting
Thanks Vince. I imagine the average Fox viewer will probably blow this off as it’s a European forecast. That’s if they even read it: https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/european-forecast-super-el-nino-strongest-ever-ocean-pacific-atlantic-hurricane-season
The latest US drought map just came out, Florida looks really dry!
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Well, they just won’t attribute a strong El Nino to climate change but rather to natural variability or something like that.
I have seen some sites talking about worsening weather the past few decades but they won’t label it the forbidden CLIMATE CHANGE.
Fox will occasionally acknowledge climate change in articles I’ve come across, but they do that through gritted teeth. Generally they prefer to downplay or ignore. I only use them as a source if no one else is covering that same story.
Well that was depressing. To cheer everyone up, here’s a video I enjoyed watching today.
This Ciliate Is About to Die.
Jupiviv, the narrator gives a thermodynamic definition of life: “Life is a chemical system that uses energy to keep itself from reaching chemical equilibrium.”
You could also apply this to the global economy, which is about to meet the same fate as the poor, old Ciliate. This probably has not made you any less depressed. 😂
I have been reading NOAA’s published daily CO2 reading for > a decade, until the page was taken down last month, being but a hoax and all. So I now go to https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ for the data, which was indeed consistent with what Pan’s last item stated… 431.79 to be exact.
But this is just May 7, and levels are still rising, so the CO2 reading is actually spiking, on a daily basis, to over 435ppm. They just publish the lowest figure, but it’s been surging a good 5ppm above that level every day.
https://youtube.com/shorts/_I1yJ5g33OQ?si=6o8fC5eryhwhMtMA
Found this last night about the oil shock coming from an interview on pbs news hour.
Thanks, Heather. I think analysts are pretty much unanimous at this point that we are headed for mind-boggling demand destruction via spiking prices this summer.
Price rationing is the only way demand destruction for fossil fuels will take place: > 30 years of COPout galas is testament to that.
Ya’ All might find Naked Capitalism’s footnote on the insider trading in oil futures illuminating; if nothing else it’s fascinating:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/05/iran-war-iran-pushes-back-against-trump-deal-is-nigh-as-more-evidence-of-us-failure-emerges-including-gulf-state-mini-revolt-even-more-us-base-destruction-jet-fuel-price-rise-damage-conserva.html
(Just ship to the bottom for the skinny on the wunderkind).