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“Turkish naval strategist warns US blockade risks global economic collapse…
“What should be expected if this situation drags on?” …“Gurdeniz: “If it continues until the end of June, the world could face a crisis similar to the one in 1929. The US-imposed petrodollar system may collapse.”
“Middle East peace talks stall amid Hormuz tensions, ceasefire violations.
“Efforts to revive talks over the Middle East war have stalled as the US weighs Iran’s latest proposal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route, while tensions in Lebanon continue to escalate despite a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.”
“Get used to the long Iran war…
“Starting with the financial markets, there is a lot of complacency on how soon the third Gulf war is likely to end. Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury on Iran has turned into an epic search for a way out.
“There is no obvious off-ramp, however, that does not lead back to the highway.”
https://www.ft.com/content/efa894e5-2431-4238-a920-3075dad1afdb?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Dual Hormuz Blockade Cuts Ship Transits to Near Zero…
“A tiny trickle of vessels, most with links to Iran, was observed in recent days. Traffic is generally steering clear after tensions in the waterway escalated last week as Iranian gunboats fired on ships, while US forces seized two oil tankers.”
“Fertilizer becomes a strategic asset in a fragmented world…
“As governments and corporates prioritize domestic supply security ahead of lucrative exports, investors are turning to projects that shorten and diversify supply chains.”
https://www.agriinvestor.com/fertilizer-becomes-a-strategic-asset-in-a-fragmented-world/
“The next casualty of the Gulf war is already here. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, a chip shortage could well be on the cards…
“The world has lost 40pc of its helium supply since the start of the Gulf war, first from Qatar and then from Russia… Industry cannot make advanced AI chips or semiconductors below 10 nanometres without ultra-high purity helium to cool the wafers and stabilise the plasma for etching.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/28/the-next-casualty-of-the-gulf-war-is-already-here/
“The Oil Supply Shock Will Scar the World for Years.
“The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has shut in over 10 million b/d of oil, triggering the largest supply shock in history and raising recession risks. Even if the Strait reopens, oil production recovery will take months to years, with damaged wells, complex restarts, and export flows slow to normalize.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Oil-Supply-Shock-Will-Scar-the-World-for-Years.amp.html
“A global fight over banking rules is just getting started. Co-operation on the financial system will be the casualty.
“Almost 18 years ago, amid the global financial crisis, a document was released which was to have a profound impact on the banking system. The snappily named “Principles for Sound Liquidity Risk Management and Supervision” was penned by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), a club of central banks…”
“Jamie Dimon warns of ‘some kind of bond crisis’ ahead as global debt risks build…
“Risks are building across multiple fronts. Dimon pointed to geopolitics, oil prices and widening deficits as a potentially dangerous mix that could trigger market stress… A bond crisis would likely mean a sudden jump in yields and a breakdown in market liquidity.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/jamie-dimon-bond-crisis-global-debt-risks.html
“Wall Street dealers boost Treasury holdings to highest level since 2007.
“Wall Street dealers’ Treasury holdings have jumped to the highest level since the global financial crisis as the Trump administration’s cut to regulation nudges banks back into the $31tn debt market.”
https://www.ft.com/content/bdbfeee1-6780-4df7-9c42-34b9bc07f233?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Trump to burden consumers with a fresh round of tariffs as Americans continue to struggle with the cost of living…
“Starting this week, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative will hold hearings in two investigations that are expected to lead to a new round of U.S. tariffs — taxes paid by importers in the United States and usually passed on to consumers via higher prices.”
“Greenland’s rare earths: ‘What could not be seized by military force is being acquired via Wall Street’…
“”Via a few financial moves, in April, Critical Metals, a US company, took control of a major rare earth deposit in Greenland. This proves the US financial markets’ ability to draw in global assets, writes Le Monde columnist Isabelle Chaperon.”
“Fickle Iceland in a geopolitical pickle…
“The country of 400,000 is a NATO member with no military of its own. It has long been considered one of America’s “unsinkable aircraft carriers” and depends on the United States for security. Could geopolitical chaos, tariff tantrums and Trump’s hankering to take neighbouring Greenland be enough to scare Icelanders into the EU’s fold?”
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/fickle-iceland-geopolitical-pickle
“Northern Irish police have made an arrest after the nationalist group New IRA claimed responsibility for a car bomb attack on a Belfast police station.
“The Police Service of Northern Ireland on Tuesday said a 66-year-old man was arrested under the United Kingdom’s Terrorism Act… Sectarian pressures have been building recently in the UK-controlled territory, 28 years after political agreement put an end to decades of violence.”
“UK Borrowing Costs Hit Highest Since 2008 as Oil Tops $111.
“UK 10-year gilt yields topped 5% for the third time since the Iran war started, after Brent crude climbed above $111 following the breakdown of ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran. Britain’s government borrowing costs have risen more than any other developed economy over the past two months…”
“Potatoes, milk and chicken among foods UK could see shortages of as a result of Iran war.
“With the world’s food supply chain under pressure from the war in Iran, experts are warning shoppers that they may soon see shortages and higher prices at British supermarkets.”
“The Middle East crisis is now turning into a solvency shock for Western Europe.
“Allianz Trade estimates it could lead to 3,750 extra insolvencies in 2026 alone, with the danger spreading through supply chains via buyer non-payment and supplier failures. “
https://trans.info/en/middle-east-shock-allianz-471161
“Europe’s smaller airports may not survive if jet fuel shortages triggered by the Middle East crisis lead to widespread route cancellations, the industry’s trade body has warned…
“The Airports Council of Europe said regional airports were the most exposed and faced an “existential threat” if airlines cut capacity and raised fares, as demand on their routes was generally more price-sensitive.”
“ECB’s latest surveys point to rising stagflationary pressures.
“The European Central Bank just released the results of its very own bank lending survey as well as the consumer expectations survey. In short, the results of both surveys suggest that stagflationary pressures in the eurozone have clearly increased, complicating the ECB’s life not only at its meeting on Thursday but also beyond.”
https://think.ing.com/snaps/ecb-bank-lending-survey-q1-2026/
“Germany’s birth rate reached lowest level on record in 2025.
“According to preliminary figures from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), around 655,000 live births were recorded in 2025, compared to around 680,00 in 2024. Last year, the country recorded more than one million deaths. This brings the birth deficit to around 350,000, setting yet another record.”
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-birth-rate-reached-lowest-level-on-record-in-2025/a-76965865
“Germany to ramp up borrowing amid large-scale military spending push.
“The German government is working on a draft budget for 2027 which includes total borrowing of €196.5bn as it aims to bolster infrastructure and defence, sources told Reuters. This compares with €50.5bn in 2024 under the previous government, before Europe’s biggest economy threw off decades of fiscal conservatism last year…”
“Third Ukrainian strike hits Russian oil refinery and prompts evacuations…
“The Kremlin accused Ukraine of “further increasing the oil shortage in global energy markets… and provoking further destabilisation”. Ukraine’s military confirmed the latest drone strike, saying such refineries helped fund Russia’s full-scale invasion…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgzd4qk7qgo
“Russia’s economy is cracking — but so is everyone else’s…
“Cracks are appearing in the EU and the economic pressure on western capitals to end the war in Ukraine is becoming just as acute. And Ukraine itself is fighting a war of survival on a balance sheet that makes Russia look conservative by comparison.”
https://www.intellinews.com/russia-s-economy-is-cracking-but-so-is-everyone-else-s-439603
“Kim Jong Un praises troops who ‘self-blasted’ to avoid capture by Ukraine…
“”Their self-sacrifice expecting no compensation, and the devotion expecting no reward… This [is] the definition of the height of loyalty of our army,” Kim said in Pyongyang on Monday as he unveiled a memorial for fallen troops, state media KCNA reported.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cddp7pzqdvjo
“Japan and China Are Edging Dangerously Close to Conflict.
“On April 17, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer Ikazuchi transited the Taiwan Strait. It was the second such passage by a Japanese warship in 10 months, yet Beijing’s response was far harsher this time. Relations between Beijing and Tokyo have degenerated sharply…”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/28/japan-china-taiwan-okinawa-history/
“Supply chain disruptions stemming from the conflict in Iran are beginning to create choke points across Japan’s auto industry, including the network of companies surrounding Toyota Motor Corp.
““We’re hearing from smaller suppliers that suddenly say they won’t be able to deliver parts in two weeks’ time, which makes things very hard to predict,” Koichi Ito, president of Toyota Industries Corp., told reporters…”
https://www.ttnews.com/articles/toyota-supply-chain-iran-war
“Australia’s New South Wales to Open New Gas Exploration Sites for First Time in a Decade.
“Australia’s New South Wales state will open new areas for gas exploration for the first time in more than a decade, to shore up energy security ahead of shortfalls on the country’s populous east coast.”
“Clashes in Indonesia’s Papua as hundreds protest against military presence.
” Students and civilians clashed with law enforcement personnel in Indonesia’s insurgency-hit Papua on April 27 during a protest attended by hundreds of residents demanding the withdrawal of military personnel from the region, a police official said.”
“Southeast Asia’s data center boom is running into a power crunch…
“It is painfully ironic that the bottleneck to a powerful future of possibilities is power itself. So often taken for granted but a vital conduit of modern civilization, electricity demand is only going to skyrocket as more high-performance data centers come online.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/opinion/southeast-asia-s-data-center-boom-is-running-into-a-power-crunch
“Indian airlines warn of shutdown risk amid Aviation Turbine Fuel crisis…
“The Federation of Indian Airlines (FIA), representing Air India, IndiGo, and SpiceJet, has told the government that ATF prices have surged to the point where both domestic and international operations are becoming unviable.”
“‘War crime’: Afghan-Pakistan truce under strain after university strike…
“Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities say Pakistani mortars and missiles struck a university and residential neighbourhoods in the eastern province of Kunar on Monday, killing at least seven people and wounding more than 80.”
“US ramps up pressure on Iran with sanctions on 35 shadow banking entities.
“The U.S. government ratcheted up pressure on Tehran, imposing sanctions on 35 entities and individuals in Iran’s shadow banking sector. It also threatened banks doing business with Chinese “teapot” refineries, accused of paying tolls for Strait of Hormuz passage.”
“Iran’s oil sector can likely weather production shut-ins, but gas fields are at risk…
“Forced reductions in natural gas output due to a lack of outlets for associated hydrocarbon liquids may be more problematic, leading to rationing gas between power generation, industry, residential users, and exports.”
“Iraq’s Prime Minister-Designate Thrust Into U.S.-Iran Power Struggle…
“Ali al-Zaidi has no political experience, has never worked in international affairs, and even inside his own country is a relative unknown. Now, as Iraq’s newly designated prime minister, he faces the daunting task of cobbling together the next coalition government…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/world/middleeast/iraq-ali-al-zaidi.html
“UAE exits Saudi-controlled OPEC cartels in fresh oil market shock.
“The country said it was to cease membership of both groups at the end of the month, arguing the decision would give it greater flexibility to chart its own path under its “long-term strategic and economic vision”.”
“Qatar rolls out business relief measures amid Iran War and regional crisis.
“The initiative offers financial support of up to 40% of eligible local investment costs, including expenses related to setup, operations and expansion… Officials say the relief package is aimed at easing operational pressures to ensure continuity of business…”
“Gulf economies head for worst crisis since pandemic as war roils energy lifeline…
“…the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global energy supply passes, along with damage to refineries and gas plants in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait and Qatar, has nearly crippled the region’s economies.”
“Is Egypt threatening Israel through its military exercises on the border?
“…While the military exercises were agreed in advance between Israel and Egypt, some Israeli media have chosen to portray the drills as part of a wider and more troubling agenda on the part of Egypt.”
“Israeli strikes kill five in south Lebanon, including three rescuers.
“Israeli troops are occupying a strip of southern Lebanon and have warned people not to return to their homes there, but the Israeli air force has also continued strikes outside that strip, including the town hit on Tuesday.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2641674/middle-east
“Far Right Israeli Settler Movement Enters Syria in a Push for “Greater Israel”.
“The area now under Israeli military control is off-limits to Syrian civilians and government forces. Farmers have been unable to tend to their land, and landowners have little hope they will ever be able to access it again. In total, Israel now occupies an additional 177 square miles of Syrian territory than it did before the fall of Assad.”
“Israeli soldiers smash solar panels with diggers in Christian village…
“Video footage has emerged showing the diggers smashing the solar panels to pieces and destroying an industrial vehicle outside the village of Debel, southern Lebanon. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers also damaged water infrastructure, homes, roads and olive trees there, Lebanese media reported.”
“Fears of resurgence in Somali piracy after three vessels hijacked in a week…
“The merchant vessel Sward was taken over on 26 April, a day after a dhow was seized. These followed the 21 April hijacking of Honour 25, a motor tanker carrying 18,000 barrels of oil, according to the Maritime Security Centre Indian Ocean (MSCIO), the tracking service of the EU’s naval force.”
“Sudan’s war leaves Khartoum with unexploded mines and other weapons.
“Khaled Abdulgader noticed children using an unusual object as a football and tried to stop them. He grabbed it, and it exploded in his hand. He lost two fingers, and shrapnel sliced into his chest.”
“DR Congo creates $100mn ‘Mining Guard’ to protect critical minerals…
“Backed by the US and the United Arab Emirates, which both have growing commercial interests in the country’s mining sector, the “Mining Guard” will cost $100mn to establish and will comprise up to 20,000 troops by 2028…”
https://www.ft.com/content/46a534bb-7c13-41b1-b686-455d41b70070?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Islamic State militants kill at least 29 in attack on village in northeastern Nigeria.
“Militants with the Islamic State group attacked a village overnight in northeastern Nigeria, killing at least 29 people, authorities said Monday. It was the latest violence in Africa’s most populous country, which has long been battling a complex security crisis.”
“What next for Mali’s military leaders after shock of rebel offensive?
“It is hard to overstate the sense of shock reverberating across West Africa after attackers, in co-ordinated assaults, managed to enter Mali’s capital, Bamako, assassinate the defence minister and recapture territory in the north.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy818zdv831o
“US Senate blocks bid to stop Trump using military against Cuba.
“The Republican-led Senate voted 51 to 47 on Tuesday, almost entirely along party lines, on a procedural measure that blocked a Democratic-led war powers resolution, as members of Trump’s party argued that there are no active US hostilities against Cuba and curbing the president’s powers was not necessary.”
“US Military Quietly Accelerates Boat Strikes, Deploying More Aircraft.
“The U.S. military has ramped up attacks against boats in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean this month, flying more attack aircraft than ever before in its campaign to kill people the Trump administration accuses of smuggling drugs at sea…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/us/politics/us-boat-strikes.html
“Google reportedly signs classified AI deal with US Pentagon…
“Classified networks are used to handle a wide range of sensitive work, including mission planning and weapons targeting. The Pentagon signed agreements worth up to $200m each with major AI labs in 2025, including Anthropic, OpenAI and Google.”
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/apr/28/google-classified-ai-deal-pentagon
“Anxiety, resentment around AI spur violence against tech’s figureheads.
“Several proponents of artificial intelligence (AI) have become the victims of violent acts in recent days, reflecting the existential dread around the emerging technology — and the public’s growing resentment towards its advocates.”
“Tech stocks suffer $180bn sell-off after ChatGPT misses growth targets.
“Shares in companies including Nvidia, SoftBank and Oracle, whose success is seen as being partly tied to ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, fell on Tuesday after reports that OpenAI had failed to hit its growth targets.”
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. Panopticon hopes to be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
It seems unlikely that OPEC would be limiting production ever again as total non-OPEC and all the ‘Plus’ countries are going to be declining from now on. Plus there will be big demand and political pressure to refill storage (probably unfulfilled). UAE and Saudi have production mostly through horizontal wells and it may take a long time to get back to previous well performance after a long shut down if, as likely the water cuts increase after start up (for several reasons – the wells will have a limit on total liquids but the may also be limits on water handling and reinjection capacities). But also it looks like MbZ of UAE and MbS of Saudi really hate each other. They certainly fell out over the Yemen war but they also seem to deliberately support opposing insurrection groups. I’d imagine most others remaining in OPEC might have similar views to getting bossed about by MbS so it may not have much reason to continue.
Thanks George, so do you think OPEC will fall apart?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-two-countries-are-the-most-likely-to-leave-opecs-orbit-next-991b6823?mod=home_lead
Kazakhstan has not “been chafing under its OPEC quota”. It has simply ignored the quota and over produced almost every month until recently when Ukraine destroyed some of export facilities. Most of its production is western IOC owned operated and they do no take notice of restrictions. It does not have excess capacity and is in decline with quite low reserve to production ratios and almost no undeveloped reserves in its main fields. OPEC had lost Ecuador, Qatar and Angola before Iran. Maybe it will continue to fade away rather than imploding but I don’t see what it is meant to achieve any more.
Thank you, George, for those useful insights.
An oil market without OPEC co-ordination is going to be less able to smooth shocks, I assume.
In time Saudi could unilaterally to raise or lower production if it chooses and would have just about as much effect as all the remaining members, but I think demand will mostly exceed supply from now on and the price will settle at something fairly middling low that the world can afford, with everybody producing flat out.
“There is no off-ramp that does not lead back to the highway.”
Perfect phrase for every manifestation of our human predicament, not just the attack on Iran.
If that’s not collapse’s new catchphrase, I don’t know what could even come second.
Yeah
Black Swans and Paradigms: Even Quark Does His Grocery Shopping Today
Much has been written about black swans since Nassim Nicholas Taleb gave the concept its place in public discourse. Unpredictable events with massive impact that, in hindsight, always seem logical. Financial crises, pandemics, geopolitical shocks—they are neatly placed within that framework, as if they are exceptions to an otherwise stable system.
But perhaps the real tension lies elsewhere.
Not in the rarity of the event, but in the persistence of the paradigm through which we interpret it. A paradigm that assumes problems are solvable, that technology pushes boundaries, and that growth is the default endpoint of every disruption. Within this framework, there are no real breaks—only temporary disturbances.
And so everything keeps moving.
Markets rise while supply lines falter. Investments continue while raw materials grow scarcer. Systems function not because they are stable, but because they have no alternative but to function. Thinking outside the system is practically impossible.
And yet, on another level, something else is happening.
Someone is stacking firewood for the winter. A village spring is being maintained. Supplies are gathered without spreadsheets or return calculations. No grand narrative, no ideology—just an action.
Even Quark, who was writing about systemic risk and global supply chains, walks through the local supermarket today with a shopping cart. Bread, vegetables, perhaps a bottle of wine. The world has not stopped.
That may be the most intriguing paradox of all.
The abstraction of the system and the banality of daily life coexist without truly touching. Black swans circle on the horizon, yet the checkout still beeps. Bread sits on the shelf. The bill is paid.
Perhaps this is not denial, but continuity. Or perhaps it is precisely the limitation within which we think and act: tomorrow resembles today—until it doesn’t.
And until then?
Quark simply does his grocery shopping.
I know the feeling well.
I feel it acutely when I pull up to the gas pump and begin dispensing petrol into my Nissan pickup.
I look around at all my fellow sheep and think, “WTF are we doing??”
>>> I look around at all my fellow sheep and think, “WTF are we doing??”
Right there with ya Mike! We’re stuck in the BAU world with collapse aware minds. I’m thankful and horrified at the same time.
Us few renegade cells blessed/cursed with the foreknowledge of the superorganism’s demise still have to perform our cellular functions.
I had a flash of entitled irritation this afternoon when my Co-op delivery did not include the bread I’d ordered, as it’s a must-have for my youngest’s packed lunches… I’ll rue that in the not too distant future.
Thanks Zip, it’s beside your point but I feel incredible cognitive dissonance when I go to the market.
But ya, keep plodding along until we can’t I guess, meh…
Welcome to groundhog day but everything keeps getting worse than the last. I am not sure how people are surviving as bad as things are getting.
Heather, I’m glad you picked up on my Bill Murray picture.
Pan-Fried
Chutes and Ladders, in cahoots with razors;
Sliding, gliding one giddily rides,
Laughing and gasping ’til at the end rasping
You see ragged teeth and the Lawman’s tasers.
Like a trip on Muni or a bike ride in traffic,
An internet conversation that bursts into Flame.
The everyday anyday that turns into doomsday,
at the blink of an eye or the click of your Bic.
Like auto exhaust or second-hand smoke
It’s only so long before life’s consequences
Seep over or under our shoddily-built fences
And start to impact the simplest of folk.
Economic Energetic and Environmental
Our leaders corral into separate spaces,
But everything entwines and interlaces:
Stop treating our Home as though it’s a rental!
As one more ice shelf calves off from Greenland
And a Cyclone or two blow over Hawaii,
All we can do is wonder more, How we
Changed from a nice one into a meanland.
Our throw-away lives leaving trash disregarded
And islands of plastic suddenly appear
Seen swirling from space in the Northwestern Gyre,
As form follows function, and then is discarded.
But sentinels stand, prophetic in silence
(Like on that remote island called Easter),
Rapa nui from unplumbed depths doth bestir
Nightmares of humanity gone mad with violence.
But as matters keep going from worse onto worser,
We watch “Breaking Bad” episodes that melt human bones
And hyper-kill videos like “Game of Thrones”
Where murder is fun: execution by cursor.
Color and darkness in juxtaposition,
Standing apart and refusing to mingle,
They shoot up ones spine an ominous tingle
As existence turns into mere huckster’s perdition.
Ripped, sawed, and rickshawed, we’re trapped in this matrix,
Sanded, dis-banded and permanent pressed,
Jet-lagged and sand-bagged and constantly stressed,
With addictions and fictions and sexual gay tricks
Lurking and smirking ’cause “Life’s just a beach”.
(Yet shopping for groceries has become out of reach).
Splendidly dystopian verse, Rob – thank you. 😎
“Stop treating our Home as though it’s a rental!” Well put…The excellent advice we weren’t capable of taking.
Thank you for your encouragement…. Now I give you Richard Medhurst, and the best breakdown of the USraeli Wars of aggression: while everyone else scratches their collective beans, Medhurst offers a cogent, well-presented objective of the conflict, not vs Iran, but against world.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0nt1CgQsgpI&pp=ygUQbWVkaHVyc3QgcmljaGFyZA%3D%3D
Nate has a new one with Rory Johnston on YouTube. Is quite good.