21 Comments

1. 

   jupiviv on April 25, 2026 at 10:18 am

   “High temperatures have produced crop-devouring locust swarms in Kyrgyzstan and toxic algal blooms in Chilean salmon farms, as well as reducing the milk production of dairy cows in Brazil.”

   Funny how no one cares about the effect of climate change/pollution on the adorable little locusts, roaches and water bugs with giant pincers that can break human skin. Whenever the topic of supernaturally evil and powerful humans “destroying nature” comes up, the mourned victims are without exception, fluffy and soft. Much like a certain species of primate cursed with an intelligence capable of very sophisticated and backhanded varieties of ego tripping.

   Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity. One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth for ever. The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose. The wind goeth toward the south, and turneth about unto the north; it whirleth about continually, and the wind returneth again according to his circuits. All the rivers run into the sea; yet the sea is not full; unto the place from whence the rivers come, thither they return again. All things are full of labour; man cannot utter it: the eye is not satisfied with seeing, nor the ear filled with hearing.

   Ecclesiastes 1:2-8

   • 

     Panopticon on April 25, 2026 at 5:42 pm

     Jupiviv, a separate article about a current locust swarm in Kyrgyzstan cropped up in my searches this morning:

     “Locusts have been detected on 7,320 hectares of land in Jalal-Abad region, the head of the regional Department for Chemicalization, Plant Protection and Quarantine, Kairatbek Sadykov, reported.”

     https://akipress.com/news:892978:Locusts_invade_7,320_hectares_in_Jalal-Abad_region/

     I like the quote. We do indeed need to get down off our anthropocentric ego trip.

2. 

   zip on April 25, 2026 at 11:22 am

   The Perfect Substance That Never Disappears

   Somewhere inside a high-voltage substation, behind fences and warning signs, sits a gas that almost no one sees and hardly anyone knows: Sulfur Hexafluoride. It does exactly what it is supposed to do: insulate, protect, prevent failures. Without substances like this, electrical grids would become larger, heavier, and less reliable.

   The problem only begins when it does its job too well.
   SF₆ is one of the most potent greenhouse gases known. Not because we use it in large quantities, but because it barely breaks down. What escapes remains—not for years, but for generations.

   The paradox is simple and uncomfortable: we create a substance because it is stable, and then discover that it remains just as stable in the atmosphere.
   That paradox takes on an additional layer of irony today. Because this very gas is widely used in the infrastructure of the energy transition—the expansion and reinforcement of electrical grids needed to replace fossil fuels. A transition designed to reduce climate change therefore partly relies on a substance that itself has an extremely strong greenhouse effect.

   The “leakage” is not dramatic. There are no visible clouds. It is ordinary engineering: seals that age, connections under pressure, maintenance operations where small amounts escape. Not an incident, but a constant trickle. And in a system that exists everywhere, every small loss accumulates.

   Anyone who thinks this is an exception only needs to look back. Chlorofluorocarbons were once celebrated as miracle substances: safe, stable, ideal for refrigeration and aerosols. Until it became clear that this same stability was destroying the ozone layer. PFAS were designed not to react with anything—and now they appear everywhere.

   The pattern is familiar. We optimize a single property—stability, inertness, efficiency—and push it to perfection. Only later do we discover that perfection inside a product becomes persistence in the environment.

   The debate around SF₆ is therefore not primarily scientific. Its properties are well understood. The real question is practical: how do you replace something that works so well without destabilizing the system that depends on it? Alternatives exist, but they are often larger, more expensive, or less proven. And so the gas remains in use.

   SF₆ thus becomes a small but revealing case. Not because it is the largest contributor to climate change, but because it shows how modern systems operate: complex, efficient, dependent on specific materials—and sensitive to side effects that only become visible over time.

   The chemical revolution has given us a great deal. Materials that last longer, systems that are more reliable, a world that appears technically controllable. But it has also revealed a pattern: what is locally perfect can become globally problematic.

   And sometimes, as in this case, the irony sits at the very heart of the solution itself. An energy transition meant to protect the climate quietly carries a substance that can burden that same climate for thousands of years. Not as a main actor, but as a persistent footnote in the story of progress.

   • 

     Mike B on April 25, 2026 at 2:30 pm

     This is reminiscent of DDT: relatively low toxicity, perfect for ridding us of mosquitoes and lice–but, oh my, so persistent in the environment and bio-accumulating in its effects.

     • 

       Panopticon on April 25, 2026 at 6:03 pm

       Thank you, Zip – a thought-provoking essay.

       I suppose proponents of the energy transition would argue that its low carbon intensity will offset the relatively small emissions of highly potent, long-lived gases like nitrogen trifluoride and sulfur hexafluoride… but they are not seeing the wood for the trees.

3. 

   George Kaplan on April 25, 2026 at 11:22 am

   Oil majors boost exploration as 300-billion-barrel supply gap looms

   https://worldoil.com/news/2026/4/23/oil-majors-boost-exploration-as-300-billion-barrel-supply-gap-looms/

   The report estimates that currently producing and sanctioned fields will supply only about 700 billion barrels of liquids through mid-century, leaving a significant shortfall without new discoveries or field extensions. At the same time, production from existing assets is projected to decline by nearly 40% between 2025 and 2040.

   An average annual loss just over two million barrels per day until 2040 is probably a best case. Even this year without Hormuz limits or Russia export facility destruction the start of the decline would have been one to two million with especially steepening decline in LTO and fade out of Brazil and Guyana gains in 2027.

   From memory a recent Rystad article showed that it is taking fifteen years on average to get from exploration to production, so discoveries now will not necessarily do anything for shortages in 2040. It will get worse than that as societal breakdown will make multi-billion projects needing global supply chains increasingly difficult, this is the main reason the Seneca cliff of decline is so steep. There are already signs that oil production infrastructures, from wellheads, through pipelines to refineries, are ageing badly and maintenance is not keeping up, so availability will decline and life cycles may get shortened (i.e. less future flow from already producing fields). The retirement and loss of experienced skilled labour and shortage of manufacturing capabilities as new development project numbers decline will exacerbate that.

   Temperatures in parts of the Persian Gulf are going to become unliveable for parts of the year, which will also reduce plant uptimes and life cycle expectancy, and wars and terrorism will get worse and the easiest and most impactful targets are oil and gas facilities (which carry their own means of destruction and look great burning on smartphone videos).

   From annual reports I don’t see there is a trend of increasing investment in exploration and development. “Costs incurred in oil and gas activities “, as they is itemised in 10-k reports, have been trending down since 2014. The last two years were higher because Exxon purchase of Pioneer and Chevron of Hess. Such purchases have been the largest single item in the costs and it is fairly evident that the saved money is mostly being diverted to buy backs and dividends. With exploration success rates tending towards one in four or five, well costs in frontier basins at 100 to 200 million and minimum finds to justify an anchor development at 500 billion barrels of oil only (as the gas probably will have to be re-injected for a development in an area with minor infrastructure) the risk arguments increasing militate against many more pure wildcats.

   It may be relevant that as project numbers decline the oil analysts at Wood Mac, Westwood etc., and reporters at the trade journals are starting to have to hunt around for something to write about.

   Black Ray’s take:
   https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/el-acantilado-seneca

   Yes, the solution that Wood Mackenzie reflects in his article is to devote much more money to exploration, but then he points out that the first four high-impact wells have been “water.”

   If we discover hardly anything or the most logical, if everything follows the current trend, in 2040 oil production will have fallen almost 40% from today’s 85 million b/d. The collapse of 12 million b/d that we are experiencing due to the closure of Hormuz is a joke compared to a fall of 34 million b/d and permanently.

   We must begin to assume that this Seneca cliff will change our way of life, because the alternative is equally deplorable.

   • 

     Panopticon on April 25, 2026 at 6:17 pm

     Thank you, George. Good stuff. I wonder if this is the timeline:

     2005 – peak conventional crude oil and condensate production
     2018 – peak crude oil and condensate production
     2026 – peak production of all liquid fuels

     If the last one holds then we have seen a structural end to global growth, no matter what the IMF might be forecasting.

     I don’t think we can see a steady erosion of 2 million barrels per day year on year. Declining energy means lower economic output. Lower output means weaker ability to extract energy. Weaker extraction means further energy decline. In other words, the situation becomes self-reinforcing, and at some point the financial heart attack occurs.

4. 

   VPK on April 25, 2026 at 1:23 pm

   Well, we need some good tidings today and in Earth Day a grand opening announcement

   https://ktla.com/news/local-news/annenberg-wildlife-crossing-opening-date/amp/

   “What a journey this has been! And we cannot wait to celebrate with you all,” managers said.

   The main section of the bridge, spanning 10 lanes of the busy freeway, is largely completed and landscaped. The remaining work involves building a crossing over Agoura Road and then connecting both ends of the bridge to adjacent open space, allowing wildlife to safely pass through.

   Beth Pratt, California’s regional director for the National Wildlife Federation, says animals are already enjoying the crossing, just not the four-legged kind yet.
   I’ve recorded multiple species of butterflies up here,” Pratt told KNX News Radio. “We’ve had, I think, eight species of birds. We’ve had red-tailed hawks and American kestrels fly by, so wildlife are already responding to it, even though it’s not connected to the landscape.”

   The project has been an emotional journey for those involved. Its goal is to reinvigorate Southern California’s iconic mountain lion population by restoring genetic diversity. Other animals that frequently get hit by cars on the 101 also stand to benefit, including bears, bobcats, foxes, coyotes and deer.

   The public is invited to vote on which animal they think will be the very first to cross.

   The bridge, however, has faced delays and cost overruns that have made it a target for critics, particularly conservatives, who see it as another example of inefficient government spending in California.

   Ain’t that nice. Hopefully, tolls won’t be charged like in the Straits of Trump

   Thanks for the all the reading/.insights today gentlemen….eye opening😎

   • 

     Panopticon on April 25, 2026 at 6:25 pm

     Vince, I love that this is happening but hate that such things are needed in the first place. Something similar in the UK:

     “The UK’s first heathland green bridge is due to open in Surrey next month to help snakes, toads and badgers cross the busy A3, National Highways says. The £3.7m Cockrow Bridge spans the A3 near Cobham and reconnects two rare heathland areas.”

     https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx24zw8ye57o

5. 

   Martin on April 25, 2026 at 2:09 pm

   No fair inserting such good news hopium into the day’s dismalia. The execution of the US big game hunter by the freedom fighting elephants as a news story must have been suggested by your handlers at the ECIC (Economy and Climate Intelligence Corps from the recent story).
   Wonder how the call girl to the the Davos Set is doing these days?

   • 

     Survivalist on April 25, 2026 at 2:41 pm

     Based on reports surrounding the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2025 and 2026, the high-end escort scene continues to be highly active and lucrative.

   • 

     Panopticon on April 25, 2026 at 6:29 pm

     “Freedom fighting elephants…” Martin, nice. 😂

     I’ve been trying not to succumb to gleeful schadenfreude over this story but it is hard. I had a similar internal tussle over CEO Brian Thompson’s execution at the hands of Luigi Mangione.

     • 

       Survivalist on April 26, 2026 at 7:52 pm

       Luigi is ideologically inconsistent. His twitter was a lot of techno optimism and Peter Theil tech bro bull shit, whereas his open facing GoodReads profile has him giving Ted Kazinsky manifesto 4.5 out of 5, and Ted was decidedly anti tech. Kinda sprawled out. Luigi was a dumdum who likes a bit of everything. Maybe not a big thinker, but def a big doer.

6. 

   Survivalist on April 25, 2026 at 2:10 pm

   Once the famine hits most folks won’t last a fortnight. Get your head down and eat your preserves. Pop up for a look about after the high-conflict individuals have thinned out a bit. Don’t get scurvy.

   • 

     Panopticon on April 25, 2026 at 6:35 pm

     All good advice, Survivalist. Rose hips are my local option for scurvy-prevention, I think.

     I’ve noticed that I get clumsy and generally inept when my blood sugar gets low these days. I don’t think I am going to fare well in a calorically constrained environment.

7. 

   Survivalist on April 25, 2026 at 8:07 pm

   Fertilizer supply crisis deepens

   https://www.producer.com/crops/fertilizer-supply-crisis-deepens/

8. 

   TR on April 26, 2026 at 2:00 am

   Global warming is not nearly as entertaining as another staged shooting at the Correspondents Dinner in D.C.

   • 

     Survivalist on April 26, 2026 at 1:39 pm

     I’m surprised nobody has fabbed up a dozen homemade mortars like those used in Syrian civil war.

9. 

   Flippr on April 26, 2026 at 9:36 am

   Just published, Quark’s latest: The transition from Operation “Epic Fury” to “Economic Fury” represents a dangerous stalemate.

   https://tinyurl.com/mphuaj3n

   Google translation:

   The phase of continuous attacks on Iran that characterized Operation Epic Fury has ended. The decision was not made to deploy troops into Iranian territory, and continuing the bombing campaign would have had negative consequences, including a significant reduction in weapons stockpiles and Iranian retaliation in the form of attacks on infrastructure in the region.

   Undoubtedly, advisors to the Trump administration have considered another option that involves less risk of direct damage in exchange for a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, shifting from a direct attack to a strategy of economic strangulation. The Hormuz blockade is primarily intended to prevent Iranian exports and, given the country’s dire economic situation, to cripple its economy and force its unconditional surrender.

   The operation has been named “Economic Fury ”.

   “ On Tuesday he added another operation, a strategic shift in reality , which began with the naval blockade and is called “Economic Fury” .

   The “furious” tone remains, but the Donald Trump administration changed its approach .

   After the fiasco of the negotiations in Pakistan , the US president is now seeking to financially strangle the Tehran regime .

   This is despite the fact that , simultaneously, an agreement for a new diplomatic approach is almost in place. But it’s always better to sit down and talk with an exhausted enemy.

   But Iran, strictly speaking, has been in survival mode for years. There was an economic emergency long before this conflict began.

   A crisis caused by the US with sanctions that accumulated to deprive the country of access to foreign currency and financially strangle it.

   Even before the war , the escalating fuel prices, and military spending, Iranians were already living with inflation of almost 70% (data as of February).

   The deteriorating quality of life for Iran’s nearly 100 million inhabitants was exacerbated by food inflation, which will skyrocket as the subsidized exchange rates for importing basic goods disappear , as expected .

   Now we can understand why, despite the ceasefire agreement and Iran’s lifting of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump has refused to lift the embargo on Iranian ships. This new strategy is a continuation of the economic policy that began months ago with the aim of creating a dollar shortage in Iran.

   “ In a startling admission, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that Washington orchestrated a dollar shortage to trigger the freefall of the Iranian rial, culminating in street protests .”

   Therefore, the US is resuming its strategy of pressuring the Iranian economy to achieve its objectives, but this policy will clearly cause scandalous damage to the rest of the world, because if Iran resists for a few more months, the world economy will suffer a brutal recession.

   Once again, the US is pursuing a strategy with a single beneficiary. They are not dependent on the region’s oil and gas and are also selling large quantities of oil and gas at very high prices, thus boosting their already declining domestic production. At the same time, the Gulf states are economically exhausted and need a bailout through the back door, requesting dollar swap lines , which reinforces the strategy of strengthening the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

   “ US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Washington is considering financial support measures for the United Arab Emirates, including a possible currency swap deal, as geopolitical tensions linked to the conflict with Iran raise economic risks across the Gulf region. ”

   Another economic “advantage” is the suggestion that the reconstruction of the area’s energy infrastructure should be carried out by American companies.

   “ The US is pressuring Arab countries to hire American companies to rebuild infrastructure damaged in Iran’s retaliatory attacks.

   The local news portal Middle East Eye (MEE) reported on Saturday, citing US and Arab officials familiar with the matter, that Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are the main countries the United States has contacted to offer reconstruction services, due to the extensive damage suffered by their infrastructure .

   While the US continues to profit from a war it started, the rest of the world pays the price. And not only that, the continued closure of the Strait of Gibraltar foreshadows a global economic collapse if it persists long enough, even acknowledging that we are already in a very precarious position.

   The world has completely changed. The law of the strongest prevails, as evidenced by the fact that no country dares to criticize US policy in the region, even if its continuation seriously jeopardizes the economic survival of the rest of the world. There’s no need to repeat arguments, but we are already immersed in the greatest energy crisis in history, and it is self-inflicted. Without the US and Israeli attack, the Strait of Hormuz would not have been closed, and pretending to be the “savior” of a problem they themselves created is a bad joke. Nobody wants to antagonize the US, thus giving them free rein to operate as they please and, as we are seeing, exploit the crisis they themselves generated for their own benefit.

   Conclusion.

   The economic crisis is already on the horizon. The repercussions of the Iran-Contra conflict are a reality, and for the moment, they can only worsen, although the damage already inflicted will lead to a serious crisis. The current stalemate, with its fluctuations, has not yet been reflected in the markets, but the economic consequences are already noteworthy, even if they haven’t yet impacted household budgets due to the lag inherent in any variation in inventories and resource availability, which takes time to be absorbed into the daily economic landscape.

   I fear, and this is a personal opinion, that we have already entered the era of mere survival. International law is no longer the law that governs behavior between nations, and if the only thing that matters is a position of power in international transactions, then we have a justification for why European states are investing astronomical sums in accelerated rearmament. If from now on, only the size and effectiveness of armies matter instead of respect for the law, it is fair to say that the law of the jungle has become the norm.

   Furthermore, this fundamental change also brings internal modifications. The establishment of war economies is quite possible, where the state curtails all rights and freedoms it deems necessary, along with an economic policy that allows for improved defense capabilities, even if this implies a radical reform of economic policy, not always to the benefit of the population.

   Rationing, restrictions, prohibitions, and the use of common resources in the coming years seem to be the outlook left by the shift in global geopolitics. As Gil-Manuel Hernández said, we have entered a chronic Third World War. Systems are adapting to this new vision, but citizens haven’t received the necessary training to understand this new situation.

   “ War and systemic structural violence perpetuate global inequality, militarize societies, repress democratic dissent, and restrict human rights .”

10. 

    Rain on April 26, 2026 at 11:48 pm

    I found a little young turtle in my yard yesterday, nestled deep in long grass I was clearing from the fenceline. What a cutie!

    I didn’t know we had native turtles this far south in the cold winter parts, but there you go. Apparently they seasonally migrate & will hibernate or go ‘dormant’ in the winter months and will seek out hiding spots to bunker down in.

    Still, there is no nearby wildish watery areas like ponds or creeks, so thought it must have been an escaped neighbours pet, so posted it on local social media 😂 I also never knew how many turtle-lovers there were in this city… Lived here 40 years, and am stunned by how popular they are.. forget your dog or cat…..

    Anyway, also found this, and thought it one of the best overall descriptors of the current state of the WW3 playing out, that I’ve seen so far, and so thought I’d share…

    https://youtu.be/j8UVRmjJB5o?si=rP_lP8Qm4YP65cbi

11. 

    Rob on April 27, 2026 at 4:05 pm

    Danny has the best guests, you might find this interesting as well:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nt1CgQsgpI