Thank you, all, for bearing with me in my absence and huge thanks to Kali for standing in so ably.
“China’s President Xi Jinping has warned that the world order is ‘crumbling into disarray’ after the US stepped up its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz.
“President Xi said in “today’s world, chaos abounds, and the international order is crumbling into disarray” during a meeting with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Beijing.”
“IMF: War threatens to turbocharge looming government debt crisis.
““Global public debt dynamics did not improve in any material way in 2025, and the outbreak of war in the Middle East has added a new source of fiscal pressure to an already strained global landscape,” the IMF said…”
https://www.politico.eu/article/imf-war-threatens-turbocharge-looming-government-debt-crisis/
“I’ve spoken to the world’s top bankers, says City guru Alex Brunner. The mood’s bleaker than I’ve ever seen. It’s about to all come down…
“…the current energy tsunami – affecting 80 per cent of countries that import oil – comes on top of the cumulative effect of a string of huge shocks to stability over the past quarter-century that have left public finances reeling.”
“IMF chief says 12 or more countries seeking loans to cope with Middle East war energy shock.
“he International Monetary Fund expects at least a dozen countries to seek new loan programs to cope with surging energy prices and supply chain disruptions caused by the Middle East war, with several sub-Saharan African nations seeking help, the head of the global crisis lender said on Wednesday.”
“Over one-third of 80 damaged Middle East energy sites severely hit: IEA…
“Birol, a Turkish economist and energy expert, said restoring regional energy supply to where it was before the crisis could take as long as two years, underscoring the depth of the disruption across the region’s oil and gas system.”
https://www.trtworld.com/article/de9c2e27f6c8
“OPEC slump points to lasting oil crisis.
“Even if the Iran war ends today, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted, the damage to global oil and gas markets will be lasting. OPEC reported this week that its members produced 27% less oil in March than in the previous month, from 28.8 million barrels per day down to 20.8 million — the largest recorded month-on-month decrease.”
https://unherd.com/newsroom/opec-slump-points-to-lasting-oil-crisis/
“Gulf chemicals supply disruption will continue for months to years.
“Even if successful, negotiations will not quickly solve problems with fertilisers and commodity chemicals. This is a consequence of far fewer ships transiting the strait of Hormuz for weeks, as well as the targeting of energy and chemical infrastructure during the war with missiles and drones.”
“Iran war brings US close to net crude exporter for first time since World War Two…
“On an annual basis, the US was last a net exporter of crude in 1943, the data showed. Rising US crude exports highlight how Atlantic Basin and Asian buyers are reaching further for supply, with regional price differences offsetting higher shipping costs, said Rystad vice president of oil markets Janiv Shah.”
“U.S. Is Most Resilient to the Energy Shock, Until It Isn’t.
“…high U.S. exports and a protracted conflict could reduce inventories in the key U.S. Gulf Coast regional market to critically low levels by the end of June, even after accounting for the approved releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve…”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Is-Most-Resilient-to-the-Energy-Shock-Until-It-Isnt.html
“US truckers’ diesel spending hits record high on Middle East conflict.
“…In April 2026, U.S. truckers’ diesel spending reached a record high of $5.52 per gallon, surpassing the previous peak of $5.50 set in June 2022. This surge is largely attributed to the escalating Middle East conflict.”
“IMF Says Treasuries Losing Premium, Warns US on Debt Management…
““The increase in the US Treasury security supply is compressing the safety premium that US Treasuries have traditionally commanded — an erosion that pushes up borrowing costs globally,” the Washington-based fund said in its latest Fiscal Monitor report.”
“Interest on US federal debt has never been higher:
“In the first 6 months of Fiscal Year 2025, interest expense jumped +7% YoY, to $623 billion, the highest for this period in history. This is even higher than during the massive pandemic response in 2021… As a result, interest is now the 2nd-largest spending category, only behind Social Security at $1.6 trillion.”
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2044576291521736824
“Pentagon approaches US automakers to help make weapons as wars deplete stocks, report claims.
“Defense officials have spoken with top executives at General Motors, Ford, GE Aerospace, and machinery maker Oshkosh about the effort, The Wall Street Journal reports. The Wisconsin-based Oshkosh told The WSJ it began speaking with Pentagon in November, prior to the Iran war…”
“Farmers warn of more fuel protests as Northern Ireland MPs call on Prime Minister to act…
“One farmer told UTV the protestors felt they had “no choice”. It came after larger-scale fuel protests in the Republic of Ireland, where motorways were brought to a standstill and fuel depots blockaded.”
“Britain could face ‘summer of supermarket food shortages’ if Iran conflict continues, officials fear…
“The paper said secret government analysis has examined a “reasonable worst-case scenario” in which disruption in the Strait of Hormuz leads to shortages of carbon dioxide, a gas seen as critical to parts of the food industry.”
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/iran-war-supermarket-food-shortages-5HjdXn5_2/
“UK Pays Highest Yield for 10-Year Gilt Sale Since 2008…
“Yields typically surge during times of heightened inflationary risks and have jumped since the war between the US and Iran started at the end of February. Benchmark 10-year gilt yields surpassed 5% for the first time since 2008 last month…”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-pays-highest-yield-10-114116355.html
“‘Bifs’ replace ‘Piigs’ as Europe’s bond market whipping boys…
“Move over Piigs. The latest problem children of European debt markets, according to investors, are the “Bifs”: Britain, Italy and France. The three economies suffered the biggest rises in borrowing costs among major European bond markets following the outbreak of war…”
https://www.ft.com/content/d2d32518-1622-4c45-9ada-569b67c8e4b6?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“The European Union is drafting plans to tackle a looming jet fuel supply crunch and maximise refinery output, officials said.
“European airlines have warned of jet fuel shortages within weeks as a result of the Iran war, disrupting travel ahead of summer. Europe is more dependent on jet fuel imports, with some 75% from the Middle East, than for any other transport fuel.”
“New EU climate law deals ‘instant’ blow to Ukraine’s steel exports, industry says.
“Ukrainian steelmakers say the EU’s new carbon border tax is prompting European customers to cancel orders, threatening one of the war-torn country’s most important sources of export revenue.”
“Russia could seize an island to test Nato at any time, warns Sweden.
“Michael Claesson, the Swedish chief of defence, said the Kremlin could launch a small attack at sea tomorrow if it wished to, as a tactic to try to expose the divisions in the alliance as President Trump threatens to abandon his European partners.”
https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/russia-attack-nato-island-baltic-sweden-6hndcgllp
“Putin Demands Answers as Russia’s Economy Undershoots Expectations…
“The Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economic Forecasting (INP) estimated a 1.5% year-on-year contraction for the first quarter, while the Central Bank had previously forecast GDP growth of 1.6% over the same period.”
“North Korea showing ‘serious increase’ in ability to make nuclear weapons, IAEA says…
“”In our periodic assessments, we have been able to confirm that there’s a rapid increase in the operations” of the Yongbyon reactor, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi said in Seoul, where he met South Korea’s foreign minister.”
“Sending combat troops to exercise, Japan leaves WWII ghosts behind…
“Japan is deploying a large, multi-service force to participate in Balikatan. And it is not hiding behind an “HA/DR” (humanitarian assistance / disaster relief) fig-leaf, nor just sending observers or a small unit that hovers on the edges of the training activities.”
https://asiatimes.com/2026/04/sending-combat-troops-to-exercise-japan-leaves-wwii-ghosts-behind/
“‘Unprecedented’ fire at Australian oil refinery threatens already dwindling petrol supplies.
“A fire at one of Australia’s only two remaining oil refineries burned for 13 hours on Wednesday night before being extinguished, threatening petrol supplies in a country already struggling with the fallout from the US-Iran war.”
“Thailand Mulls Public Debt Ceiling Hike in Face of Energy Shock.
“Thailand is open to a higher public debt ceiling “if necessary,” Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said, stressing that any additional spending should be channeled into investments that can help the Southeast Asian nation build resilience.”
“Singapore tightens monetary policy as energy shock hits Asia.
“The Monetary Authority of Singapore warned that the import-dependent nation was vulnerable to the sharp increases in oil and gas prices since the outbreak of war in the Middle East six weeks ago and the longer-term impact on global supply chains.”
https://www.ft.com/content/b5a5d5aa-d106-4914-82e7-30a95af22e69?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Iran war triggers fertilizer crisis for India’s farmers.
“India’s small-scale farmers are facing a growing fertilizer crisis linked to the war in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — a key shipping route for fertilizer imports. Essentials like diammonium phosphate and urea, needed at the start of the sowing season, are becoming scarce just weeks before the next crop cycle.”
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-triggers-fertilizer-crisis-for-indias-farmers/video-76796705
“Iran war hits Pakistan hard — it decides to switch off lights for 2 hours during evening peak.
“Pakistan will implement daily power cuts of over two hours during peak-usage times every evening as part of efforts to manage rising energy costs linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, according to AFP, citing the government.”
“Three killed in Bajaur [Pakistan] after mortar shells fired from across Afghan border hit house.
“Two children and a woman were killed, while three others were injured, after mortar shells fired from across the Afghan border hit a house in Bajaur’s Kitkot village. Security sources blamed the Afghan Taliban and said the army carried out retaliatory action.”
“US sending 10,000 more troops to Middle East despite Iran ceasefire…
“Approximately 4,200 other troops from the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and its embarked Marine Corps task force, the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, are expected to arrive near the end of the month, the report said.”
“Iran threatens to block Red Sea if US naval blockade persists.
“”The powerful armed forces of the republic will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea,” said Ali Abdollahi… The remarks came after CENTCOM began on Monday a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports.”
https://www.trtworld.com/article/1cc3394a3474
“Southern Lebanon ‘Hezbollah kill zone,’ Israel says.
“Israel declared southern Lebanon a “Hezbollah kill zone” on Wednesday, a day after historic peace talks between the two countries in Washington. The zone would extend from the border with Israel north to the Litani River, army chief of staff Eyal Zamir said.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2640086/middle-east
“Israeli forces raid homes in Syria’s Quneitra, intimidate residents…
“Israeli incursions into southern Syria have become nearly daily in recent months, often involving raids on homes, the establishment of checkpoints, and the detention of civilians, including children and shepherds.”
“‘This land is ours’: Jewish nationalist violence sweeps the West Bank.
“Former security officials warn the violence is organized and expanding, with outposts rapidly built near Palestinian communities, restricting movement and raising fears of long-term changes on the ground.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/magazine/article/r1wcat6nze
“‘World has failed Sudan’ amid world’s worst humanitarian crisis…
“Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, said the world had “failed the people of Sudan” where the number of those suffering had exceeded the combined tolls of conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, Lebanon and Iran. Yet it has garnered a fraction of the attention.”
“Nigerian security forces on high alert for large-scale attack on airport and prison, memo says.
“Nigeria’s security forces are on high alert over a planned attack by Islamist militants on public infrastructure in Abuja and Niger states, an internal memo dated April 13 obtained from the Nigeria Customs Service by The Associated Press on Wednesday showed.”
“Pentagon ramps up plans for military operation in Cuba in case Trump orders direct intervention: report.
“Two sources familiar with the matter told USA Today on Wednesday that contingency plans are being developed in case President Donald Trump orders an intervention on the island nation. Trump has not announced plans to invade Cuba, but has floated the idea.”
“Cubans self-medicate as crisis takes toll on mental health: ‘There is no idea to hold on to’…
“… the Guardian spoke to healthcare professionals the length and breadth of the island, who reported that most families include at least one member turning to the black market to buy antidepressants, mood stabilisers or stimulants.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/15/cuba-self-medicate-drugs-mental-health
“‘The Paris Agreement is working’: Host Türkiye calls for ‘concrete results’ from COP31 Climate Summit...
“In a formal letter issued on 13 April 2026, COP31 President-Designate Murat Kurum asserted that the Paris Agreement is working but warned that the “decisive period for the future of climate action” requires translating pledges into measurable outcomes.”
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. Kali will be back tomorrow with a ”climate” thread.
“When people speak to you about a preventive war, you tell them to go and fight it. After my experience, I have come to hate war.”
– Dwight D. Eisenhower
Welcome back Pano!
Thank you, Flippr. Your quote had me looking up others in similar vein. I rather liked this one from Susan Sontag (Writer, philosopher, activist):
“War-making is one of the few activities that people are not supposed to view realistically; that is, with an eye to expense and practical outcome. In all-out war, expenditure is all-out, imprudent – war being defined as an emergency in which no sacrifice is excessive.”
Welcome back Pan! Hope you and the fam had your fill of R&R. I have a reunion with my homies planned around late May. As I advance into my thirties I find myself often regretting not spending waaay more time with people I like/love, back in the golden age of the late 00s and 10s when time wasn’t rapidly running away from me both personally and in a general collapse sense.
Thank you, Jupiviv. We did indeed have our fill of R&R, although my post-holiday sense of tranquillity predictably lasted all of five minutes. 😂
I share your sentiments on reconnecting with friends from the past, even if I’m too old to call them “homies” without causing everyone around me to physically cringe with embarrassment.
Welcome back. Yeah I hope you had many laughs and smiles with your family.
I’m 37 flying solo in the Catskills in upstate New York.
I read your website everyday and report it out loud on my channel to a dedicated community. Recently just been put on notice that I’m about to lose my gig job which has put me in extreme anxiety to find a new source of income. My audience is supportive in times of crisis but cannot sustain monthly income.
Global mass famine this summer? Looks so.
The Paris agreement is working says Turkiye? Nope.
CO2 ppm just hit 430.
At least I don’t have 25,000$ in credit card debt, only 1,000$.
Wake up everyday to this insane nightmare.
2028-2030 is going to be some of the craziest times to be alive.
Everyone younger is burnt out and tired of this stupid rigged game.
Damn, I hope you’re able to find some work soon. I certainly have been familiar with that stress. 😞
We’re winning..and that’s the truth!
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/us-renewables-natural-gas-coal
For the First Time in the U.S., Renewables Generate More Power Than Natural Gas
In a first last month, renewables supplied more power to the U.S. than natural gas, a milestone in the shift to clean energy. However, rising power demand is complicating the transition away from fossil fuels by extending the lives of many aging coal power plants.
Together, renewables — including solar, wind, hydropower, and bioenergy — were the biggest source of U.S. electricity in March, according to data from the think tank Ember. Along with nuclear power, they supplied more than half of U.S. power.
E360 Digest. Yale Environment 360 April 14, 2026
Don’t ya give up hope, always look on the bright side….
Yes, good you made it back safe and sound, Pan, and a big 💖 thanks to Kali.
Looks like we are indeed on a tarpeze wire with high winds blowing.
So what? Steel. Concrete. Ammonia. Plastics.
We can substitute, human creativity know no bounds..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eswQl-hcvU0
Yes, everyone get on board and sing along, it can happen.. boy, is that deep💩
Vince, here in the UK the Greens have just won a significant by-election and are looking strong contenders to form the next government.
They want to phase out fossil fuels and nuclear, and see us hit Net Zero by 2040. So, that’ll be an interesting journey.
Sorry to hear about your woes, Truth Wizard. There isn’t much worse than lying awake at night, panicking about income and money – something I’ve done plenty of myself over the years. It really taps into that primitive, reptilian bit of the brain. 😬
This is Truth Wizard’s YouTube channel for the uninitiated:
https://www.youtube.com/@TruthWizardX
There is a link below his videos for donating.
That means a lot Pan & Cassandra.
This is a cruel system we live in.
Yeah but then how do we replenish the “renewables” when they inevitably degrade?
We get one refresh. That’s it.
Pan.,
I am curious as to what city or cities had the honor of hosting your family.
Curt, my mother-in-law was kind enough to take us on a one-week trip to Lanzarote.
It was my first trip to the Canary Islands. Here in the UK they are considered somewhat run-of-the-mill, mass-tourism destinations and they’ve been making headlines for the local backlash and protests against that mass tourism. But I loved it out there with its dramatic volcanic landscapes, unusual cacti and clean, white architecture.
It tickled me to be only 100 KM’s off the coast of Africa, near where Morocco borders Western Sahara.
It was unusually cool for the time of year, though, and parts of the archipelago are still feeling the after effects of Storm Therese, which brought record rainfall in March. A local I spoke to told me that the climate has gone noticeably rogue over the past year.
I am glad that you enjoyed your trip and even more importantly that you made it home safely.
Thanks to Kali for standing in and welcome back, Panopticon.
A friend sent this to me, saying “It’s long but important.” He was right.
The Sulfur Trap: How the Most Strategic Element on Earth Got Trapped Behind a 21-Mile Strait
A couple quotes:
“The United States Department of Agriculture has just reported that American wheat acreage in 2026 will be the lowest since records began in 1919.”
“The energy transition built its entire manufacturing supply chain on a chemical produced as waste from the industry it is competing with”
https://open.substack.com/pub/veronken/p/the-sulfur-trap
The so-called energy transition is not “competing with” the fossil fuel industry, it is completely dependent on it.
As is now being made abundantly clear, what was called the “Green Revolution” (that enabled corporations to turn farming into the extractive industry called agriculture) is as dependent on fossil fuels as the “Green New Deal” is.
Cassandra, that is an interesting piece. There is a lot of devil in those details!
Hey Pan, what’s your network of health journals look like? Climate related medical news seems to crop up from time to time, though it seems like an area that doesn’t get as much attention. Curious to hear your thoughts on it.
Tim, I’m primarily focused on news media, so don’t delve much into health journals.
If there is an eco/climate-related medical story making headlines, even in a small way, then I will tend to pick up on it, although I may not include it. Dengue and cholera outbreaks have been staples over the years, as have articles about human incursions into animal habitats and zoonotic disease spread. More tangentially, I’ve posted articles about climate change and mental health; frozen, ancient pathogens at risk of thawing… I followed the bird flu story closely for a while, when there was a fear it might spread to humans en masse.
I’ve also been aware of the EU having major problems with livestock disease recently but I haven’t had time/room to include it much in threads. Here’s a sample article from January:
“The EU is being hit by a wave of livestock diseases, fueling existing discontent among farmers. In Greece, breeders are resorting to illegal vaccines to fight pox, while in France and Spain mandatory culls to contain a new cattle disease have pushed farmers to the brink.”
https://www.euractiv.com/news/illegal-jabs-and-fake-news-fuel-europes-livestock-disease-crisis/
The Cuban Whistle Crisis: so let me get this strait (sic); the US, having attacked what it thought to be a supine power once it eliminated its top echelon, instead resulting in the loss of 20% of the world’s energy resources, is now blockading (an act of War in & of itself) and threatening to attack an island within east drone range of the Permian basin, the prime source of @ least another 10% of the globe’s energy resources.
What could possibly go wrong?
Are we really supposed to believe that bringing this imbroglio to the “Gulf of America” is accidental? Attack on the US mainland brought GW’s approval ratings from the basement to the highest of any previous administration; The Furor believes the same will happen for him.
When Madness reigns, what was previously thought to be inconceivable becomes totally predictable.
Rob, I keep saying “nothing would surprise me” in jaded, doomer fashion – and then turning on my laptop first thing to put together a thread and being really quite surprised. 😂
So, who knows! I wouldn’t dismiss your scenario out of hand.