Huge thanks to my sponsor for March, the splendid Professor Pongoo.
“Oil tops $116 a barrel as Iran accuses US of preparing invasion…
“The surge came after Iran said it was prepared for a US ground invasion, with the speaker of the country’s parliament warning that Tehran was waiting for the arrival of US troops to “set them on fire” and “punish” their regional allies.”
“Crude oil and LNG supply are at risk of the worst-possible scenario.
“A month after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, global markets for the supply of crude oil, refined products and liquefied natural gas are already in the second-worst possible scenario… a full-scale regional conflagration involving widespread ground invasions remains the “worst-case…””
“Is It Time for Energy Rationing to Return?
“Ongoing conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have caused severe disruptions to global oil supply. Governments across Asia and beyond are already implementing conservation measures to mitigate rising energy costs and shortages.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-It-Time-for-Energy-Rationing-to-Return.html
“Stagflation fears grip markets as oil, aluminium prices soar…
““Financial markets have finally begun the painful, but inevitable, process of pricing in a sharp stagflationary shock to the global economic system,” said Jonathan Pain, a former executive of Rothschild Australia, in is widely followed Pain Report newsletter.”
“Sovereign bonds are rising around the world as concern the Middle East conflict will derail global economic growth revives demand for beaten-down government debt.
“US Treasuries advanced with Australian and Japanese bonds in Asian trade on speculation that surging oil prices may be just a harbinger of a protracted global fuel shortage.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-30/bonds-everywhere-are-rallying-as-global-slowdown-fears-intensify
“Oil prices threaten to blow up a $3tn market…
““Shadow banking”, as it is often called, was already in trouble. It was grappling with soaring defaults and a flood of withdrawal requests from investors, motivated by fears about artificial intelligence… Now soaring oil prices are certain to pile on more pain.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/28/oil-prices-threaten-to-blow-up-a-3tn-market/
“Private Credit’s Exposure to Ailing Software Industry Is Bigger Than Advertised…
““If you look at the private-credit deals that have gone sideways, there’s a software element to the majority of them,” said Alex Chaloff, chief investment officer at Bernstein Private Wealth Management.”
“Donald Trump is offering aid to farmers and food suppliers as they face a fresh set of challenges amid the US-Israel war on Iran, the White House announced Friday…
“Fertilizer and diesel prices have jumped significantly due to the closure of the strait of Hormuz, which is a key transport route for crude oil and nitrogen.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/27/trump-farmer-food-supplier-aid-iran-war
“America’s long-haul truckers were already struggling. Then came $5 diesel…
“Diesel, the largest day-to-day expense in trucking, has jumped 41% since the start of the war to a national average of nearly $5.38 a gallon. The rise in oil prices is rippling through the US economy. Gas prices have jumped for drivers and grocery bills may soon rise.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/28/business/diesel-trucking-iran-war
“‘Canadians don’t want to come here any more’: anger over Trump squeezes US border businesses…
“Angered by Donald Trump’s hefty tariffs and annexation threats – and compounded by fears of border detentions and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) crackdowns – Canadians have stayed away, refusing to spend their hard-earned dollars in local border towns like Lewiston.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/28/canada-us-border-business-pay-trump-tariffs
“The UK is reportedly “a few weeks away” from major medicine shortages if the Iran war continues, experts have said, while the conflict could also prompt a surge in drug prices…
“…the war has doubled the cost of air freight rates: “One in five NHS medicines comes in by air, and currently manufacturers are trying to absorb those costs.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/uk-medicine-shortages-iran-war-b2947639.html
“Starmer to meet energy and finances bosses in bid to stop household bills spiralling.
“The prime minister will hear directly from businesses to assess the damage to the UK’s economy as he convenes senior figures from the energy, shipping and financial services industries.”
“Eurozone borrowing costs soar on fears of fiscal hit from Iran shock…
““The spectre of inflation has returned,” said ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel in a speech on Friday afternoon, adding that the shift had happened faster than “many people” had expected.”
https://www.ft.com/content/8fbabe23-f9d7-4d6e-b7e0-2281a28d0b2c?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“The Iran and Ukraine wars have merged into a single conflict, but ‘we are still not at a true world war,’ expert says.
“Sources told the Associated Press that Russia’s improvements on the Shahed drone include decoys meant to divert air defenses, jet engines, cameras, advanced anti-jammers, radio links, AI computing platforms, as well as Starlink capabilities…”
“Ukraine’s Zelenskyy signs air defence deals with UAE, Qatar on Gulf tour.
“Qatar and Ukraine have signed a defence agreement seeking joint expertise on countering threats from missiles and drones, according to Qatar’s Ministry of Defence, as Iran continues attacking its Gulf neighbours.”
“Russia’s Ust-Luga port sustained fresh damage from a Ukrainian drone attack, as Kyiv steps up strikes on Russian oil export infrastructure…
“Russian oil exports. Another port in the region, Primorsk, has also sustained damage… The damage to both ports threatens to blunt a potential boost to Russian oil export revenues from price increases sparked by the Iran war.”
“Can This Russian Bakery Survive a 3,500% Tax Increase?
“…The Russian economy has hit a wall, and the Kremlin is resorting to higher taxes to keep up its immense military spending… Away from the capital, in places like Kraskovo, where Mr. Maksimov has his bakeries, those with less money have begun to see his pastries as a luxury, he said.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/28/world/europe/russia-economy-small-business-tax-increase.html
“China’s ‘teapot’ oil refineries keep economy brewing – but surging crude prices leave them strained…
“Shandong’s industry is fuelled by independent “teapot” refineries, so called because of their diminutive appearance. Operating on razor-thin margins, they survive by buying cheap crude wherever they can and turn it into petrol and diesel for neighbouring provinces.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/30/china-teapot-refineries-crude-oil-iran-war
“Courting Trump and Fearing China, Japan Rethinks 80 Years of Pacifism.
“Today, Japan’s decades-long embrace of pacifism is fading as the country confronts a more dangerous and unpredictable world… Takaichi even has plans to try to revise the postwar constitution itself, a longstanding goal of her ruling Liberal Democratic Party that has eluded every party leader before her.”
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/japan-defense-trump-china-5621e92e
“Japan’s FX Chief Warns of ‘Bold’ Action After Yen Tops 160.
“Japan’s top currency official delivered his strongest warning yet to speculators, saying authorities may need to take bold action in the foreign exchange market if current conditions persist.”
“Australia to halve fuel tax as global energy crisis deepens…
“Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese made the announcement on Monday as the international benchmark for crude oil rose above $116 a barrel, its highest level in nearly two weeks, amid escalation on multiple fronts of the conflict.”
“‘Entire global economy taken hostage’: Singapore FM warns Asia faces crisis from Mideast disruption…
“In remarks made over an hour-long interview, he also raised questions about the necessity and legality of the US-Israeli war on Iran, saying the “entire global economy has been taken hostage” by a conflict that could usher in a financial crisis.”
“For Asia, the worst effects of Trump’s war on Iran are yet to come…
“This is not a typical “oil shock” of the kind endured by Asia and other key regions in recent decades. Its most obvious impact is on energy supply and prices, but it also critically affects petrochemicals, manufacturing supply chains, energy infrastructure and transport networks, as well as financial markets.”
“Thai PM Readies New Cabinet as Energy Crisis Threatens Growth.
“Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is close to unveiling a new cabinet lineup, handing him more power to deal with the challenges posed by the Middle East crisis, which is threatening the Southeast Asian nation’s growth outlook.”
“Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of shelling outskirts of eastern city, killing and wounding civilians…
“Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of providing a safe haven for militants who carry out attacks inside Pakistan, especially for the Pakistani Taliban. The group is separate but closely allied with the Afghan Taliban…”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/pakistan-afghanistan-kabul-muslim-saudi-arabia-b2947978.html
“Israeli military launches attacks on infrastructure in Tehran…
“Explosions were reported in multiple areas, including the nearby city of Rey, south of Tehran, according to Iran’s Fars news agency. Strikes on Tehran have intensified in recent weeks, with Israeli officials saying they are targeting military and strategic infrastructure as the conflict continues to escalate.”
“Iranian attack damages Kuwait power and desalination plant, kills worker.
“The war has exposed the vulnerability of critical water infrastructure in a region that is among the most water-scarce in the world… Reporting from Kuwait City, Al Jazeera’s Malik Traina said Kuwait has been subjected to repeated attacks since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran more than a month ago.”
“Trapped seafarers suffer as Iran war rages…
“Stephen Cotton, general secretary of the International Transport Workers’ Federation, a trade union, said crews often had little to occupy them, leaving lots of time to worry about “‘what-if sets of scenarios” while “rockets [and] drones near the ships add to their heightened sense of fear”.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2dab72c9-1989-4853-9570-6ff710f7e310?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Houthi attacks on Israel open new front in Mideast war, threaten Red Sea shipping…
“Their involvement in the month-long conflict could further hurt global shipping should they again target vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off the Red Sea, a narrow waterway that has become all the more vital since Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz.”
“Exhausted Palestinians struggle to put lives back together as world’s gaze fixes on Iran.
“…everyday life in the streets and markets of the territory is fearful and drained of colour. People with exhausted faces queue for food and other supplies amid the ruins of destroyed buildings. Muddy waters course through displacement camps.”
“Netanyahu orders military to expand invasion of southern Lebanon…
““I have just instructed to further expand the existing security buffer zone. We are determined to fundamentally change the situation in the north [of Israel],” Netanyahu said in a video statement from the Northern Command on Sunday…”
“Shops and restaurants in Egypt told to close early as energy crisis deepens…
“The “exceptional measures” introduced by the Egyptian government also include dimming street lights and roadside advertising, as well as a return to home working for one day a week in April for many.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rxz7ggv8go
“RSF attack on Sudan’s South Kordofan kills at least 14, including children.
“The Sudan Doctors Network said the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and their allies in the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement–North shelled residential areas in the city of Dilling in an attack that lasted hours…”
“In South Sudan, a prophet’s sacred stick helps fuel a violent struggle for political power….
“That stick is known as Ngundeng Bong’s dang… and has emerged as a contentious relic in the quarrel between South Sudan President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar, who took ownership of the stick years ago.”
“Somalia accuses Southwest state leader of jihadist links as forces near Baidoa.
“…the Somali federal government and Southwest State (SWS) entered a severe political and military standoff. The federal government has officially accused Southwest State leader Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen and his administration of colluding with the Al-Shabab terrorist group.”
“Fuel Crunch From War Threatens South African Wheat, Corn Crops.
“Farmers in South Africa are heading into the winter planting season with surging diesel prices and tightening supplies — triggered by the Middle East conflict — that are threatening production in sub-Saharan Africa’s largest commercial wheat-growing industry.”
“Malnourished children and desperate mothers: the healthcare facility on the frontline of Nigeria’s hunger crisis…
“The children are victims of an unprecedented hunger crisis gripping vast swathes of Nigeria. The Red Cross has warned that up to 33 million Nigerians could face severe hunger this year, a record figure.”
“Trump appears to relax de facto oil blockade on Cuba as Russian oil tanker nears island…
“Donald Trump has signalled a new flexibility in allowing oil into Cuba, hours before a Russian oil tanker under US sanctions was due to arrive in the Caribbean island amid a de facto oil blockade imposed by Washington.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/29/us-russian-oil-tanker-cuba-blockade
“‘We will see a new government in Venezuela, in Cuba and in Iran’ [Senator Ted Cruz].
“Cruz made these remarks while praising the foreign policy approach of President Donald Trump, suggesting that the administration’s actions had brought these three nations to the brink of leadership changes.”
“WTO meeting ends with no deal.
““We have run out of time,” says Director-General Ngozi Okonjo Iweala… U.S. officials had linked any extension of the moratorium to their agreement on the broader WTO reform workplan, effectively derailing the talks.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/wto-meeting-ends-with-no-deal/
“I’m seeing more people in therapy struggling with war-related anxiety. Here’s what helps…
“…it cannot even rightfully be described as a clinical anxiety disorder, because it is an accurate and realistic response to a world which has changed beyond recognition, where numerous changes are coalescing to create a polycrisis.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/30/therapy-war-related-anxiety
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. Panopticon hopes to be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
HideAway
March 28, 2026 4:25 pm
One of the scary aspect to me is how our CACTUS theory and following logical chains, not of the crisis itself, but of reactions to less fuel, fertilizer, sulphur, aluminium etc, is so predictable..
In the media today was this bit.. “Farmers worry about how the crops they sow today will be harvested next season”.
Then a story of a business… “Over in Western Australia, crop farmer David Butcher says he won’t have enough diesel to cover the upcoming seeding period.
“If we are on rations like the 3,000 litres of diesel we got 10 days ago, that will only do two days of seeding for us.
“We have around 40-45 days of seeding to get through which equates to 135,000 litres of diesel in the next six weeks.”
The rational choice by such farmers would be to not plant as much, or any at all, to save fuel for other purposes on the farm. However this only applies if people think in availability terms and not in financial terms, ie the category error..
If that farm has huge loans, then they will plant what they can, as they need the income to pay the interest and principle due to the banks, so no crop guarantees farm forfeiture anyway, so may as well take the risk of diesel being available in 6 months time. However if the farm is not under the financial stress, the alternative is small or no crop now waiting for things to settle down, or just look after our own (and all the relatives that turn up).
All so predictable in a CACTUS lens, it’s frightening..
I’ve also been looking at what different governments around the world are saying and claim to be doing. There is a consistency of approaches while the details differ. Admittance that their current supplies are constrained, but then the ‘claim’ that they are putting in measures so they can gain fuel from ‘other’ sources, so no need to panic.
So where and what are these alternative sources?? They even mention, uncontracted oil supplies from independent uncontracted sources or the international wholesale market and other such terms. All nonsense, as every other country is doing the same, and most of those sources (probably Russian oil/fuel, already likely going to China anyway).
In other words, politicians spin is already going off the charts, as they have no answers as they do not understand the problem, still thinking in the category error lens of an economic problem that can be solved with price, as in we’ll bid higher than other countries and our economy will sort itself out, instead of a sudden energy crunch that is life threatening to our civilization.
At some point in the few weeks to months, when governments get really concerned about food into cities, they will ban mining to save fuel, all mining as the food need of populations becomes paramount. They could ban gold mining right now, saving huge quantities of fuel, but they wont, they will just lump all mining in the same category, because it’s easy with so many other ‘worries’, again a category error..
Mining of the high grade Pilbara is paramount to keep the high end steel products of the world flowing. There is no chance of any recovery in the gulf, if the steel products are not made and distributed. But if over 50% of the worlds, high grade iron ore, stops flowing to the giant blast furnaces of Asia, then those countries will likely ban exports of steel products, because the other 50% of the world’s high grade iron ore comes from Brazil, and given bunker fuel shortages, quickly becoming too expensive to send to Asia, or just not enough quantity of fuel. In Brazil you need diesel to get the iron ore to the port, then the long sea voyage across the World..
If the export of high grade steel products form the Asian countries happens, because they need the high grade steel for their own economies, and see supply of iron ore totally drying up for an unknown period, all predictable and logical, from a ‘fortress’ country perspective, then existing oil fields around the world also have drops in production, as the high grade steel pipes and supports are one of those JIT commodities they are constantly using. The new wells constantly required for the fracked O&G in the USA will fairly quickly run into pipe limits..
If the existing oil production in the USA starts to decline quickly without the new drilling, which we know it will, then fairly soon the amount of Naptha used a diluent for transporting the heavy tar sand oil also has massive reductions, and eventually not enough to keep the oil flowing through pipes.
Feed back loops within feedback loops..
HideAway
Reply to
Rob Mielcarski
March 28, 2026 9:59 pm
I think I’m trying to hone in on a signal that collapse is a certainty, and the Australian Government banning all mining is possibly one of those. If they were smart enough to ban just gold mining, we might still have a chance, but iron ore mining no..
Australia’s iron ore mining uses vast quantities of jet fuel as it’s Fly In Fly Out, vast quantities of diesel, both trucks to site, on site plus the trains for hundreds of km to port, then tonnes of bunker fuel to China, South Korea and Japan..
The iron ore in China, or the USA is low grade 20%-30% and unsuitable for making the high end pure steel products. It can be made pure, but no-one is set up to do that, as it’s much more expensive and energy intensive than just using the high grade material. Besides there has always been plenty of the cheap high grade iron ore from Australia, Brazil and now Simandou in Guinea, providing there is plenty of cheap diesel, jet fuel and bunker fuel…
Thanks Ravi, I think both Rob and HideAway are shocked at how quickly CACTUS (Complexity Accelerated Collapse of a Thermodynamically Unsustainable System) has come to fruition. It was just a few months ago that they put a name on the theory and here we are.
Flippr, it’s amazing the speed with which events have overtaken us this year.
“Politicians spin is already going off the charts, as they have no answers as they do not understand the problem…”
Ravi, some of them are speaking plainly, even if their understanding of the situation is partial. The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is saying that this shock could be as bad for Europe as the pandemic. The Italian Foreign Minister and South Korean President have both said that they are having sleepless nights:
“President Lee Jae Myung said Monday that the energy crisis triggered by the Middle East war is so serious that it keeps him awake at night.. Lee made the remark during a town hall meeting on the southern island of Jeju, warning that the situation is “worse than you think” and could deteriorate further.”
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260330010000315
Ravi, good content and am amazed politicians, as you put it, have no clue of the situation and think in terms of “economic problems “. Fifty years after my bachelor business studies I still recall the concept of CPM, Critical Path Method, from one of my core classes I was required to take for my bachelor degree. Perhaps I’m being too critical here, but one would think in government circles this concept would be paramount in any planning.
If it still sticks in my mind after a half century of leaving the halls of upper education, I’m disappointed in our failure. But then again, that’s a song for another day.
On the No Kings protests, for successful rebellion and regime change the 3.5% rule means 8 million is not enough. Really it would need more than 12 million and it has to be sustained unrest, not just an occasional march on a sunny weekend. However, it may be irrelevant because I don’t see how there isn’t now an escalating collapse globally and it’s likely to be fast. If the El Nino is as bad as it looks likely to be it will indicate cloud and ocean stratification feedbacks might be pushing warming to one degree per decade on top of the insoluble geopolitical, economic and energy issues. As an example (not a worse case by any means because this is what was possible before the Hormuz brick through the window) we could be losing about 2 – 3% GDP per year to energy declines, 3% and rising to extreme event climate destruction of infrastructure, 4% or more to conflict and arms races and maybe 2 to 5% to general economic and societal collapse (including loses due to climate change impacts on productivity and refugee/migration issues). In not many years, i.e. well before 2040, there would be no more recognisable industrial economy.
On energy decline – North Dakota mineral agency is showing the Bakken decline at 15% and accelerating (maybe 200,000 lost this year), the EIA is gradually increasing GOM decline rate (maybe 250,000 this year) and is showing LTO production as declining this year (and then somehow magically recovering, which is what the EIA always assumes).
Interesting from a quick scan of the above – not a mention of renewables as a source of amelioration against oil and gas shortages (of course not because they are the most complex and inconvenient of energy sources) and I think its fair to say climate and environmental issues are unlikely even to be paid lip service by any government from now on.
George, good post; you brought up an important factor in cival disobedience, as written by American author, Henry David Thoreau. In it he expressed he would rather be jailed, which he did, rather than pay a “poll tax”, which he deemed evil. One visitor, while he was in jail, asked why he elected to be there, and his response was why are not here with me.
Remember reading somewhere about the Vietnam war protest movement, which were a lot more intense than what we see today, as you aptly pointed out.
If only say 3.5% of the draft dodgers insisted to be placed in jails instead of fleeing, like the professional fighter, Mohamed Ali, the system could not have handled the numbers, unless the government set up concentration camps as in Germany.
Obviously, a chocking point.
I attended a rally on Saturday in my city. It was structured so no one got hurt by the organizers and city hall. Very structured from 11am to 1pm and restricted to Young Circle.
Some three thousand showed up, mainly old white privileged boomers reliving the 1960s in a antiseptic way. Yes, there were many signs, I made one myself, chanting, music and a few loud brief speeches. Seemed very automatic and structured with little passion, seriousness or intensity. Going through the motions to sleep better at night.
Seen it before with the other Middle East Wars before in Washington DC and Boston I attended. Some media coverage that was soon forgotten.
Bill McKibben founder of 350.org, organized the same years back to have notables arrested in protest of the lack of climate action. A few were jailed, recieved some press attention, and the music played on. Sorry, no music video today. You all here have silenced the band.
Vince, it was not directly related to your No Kings protests but the UK saw a substantial march against the far right at the weekend:
“Tens of thousands of people have marched through central London in what organisers are calling the largest ever demonstration against the far right in British history.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/28/hundreds-of-thousands-march-through-london-in-stand-against-the-far-right
“…not a mention of renewables as a source of amelioration against oil and gas shortages.”
George, Rachel Reeves is still banging that drum:
“Rachel Reeves will warn G7 nations they must move faster on clean energy to insulate economies against global price shocks from oil and gas as she and the energy secretary Ed Miliband meet G7 finance and energy ministers on Monday.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/29/rachel-reeves-to-tell-g7-accelerating-shift-to-clean-energy-is-best-defence-against-energy-price-shocks
This is so silly, you can’t build wind turbines in solar farms without fossil fuels. There’s no such thing as clean energy. Unless you’re a plant of course
“… the shift had happened faster than “many people” had expected.” Apparently because those “many people” have had their heads in the sand for the best part of a century. Insert facepalm here.
Ya, it’s a real shocker Barry. 🤦♂️
Shout out to Barry’s excellent website: https://barrysmiler.com/
Barry’s website is indeed excellent.
I’ve asked my webmaster if she’d be very kind and add it to my “recommended blogs” section, as it really should be on there.
Pano, you have a pic of Rubio instead of Cruz.
Thanks, Texas Guy. That’s amended. I get those two muddled up.
They came that way, Pan.
😂
Ha, good catch TG. At this point all these psychos blur together for me.
It’s hard to tell what’s true or not when it comes to the instawar but if the US does end up launching a ground invasion then I’ll apologetically consume my own prediction from a month ago and stop calling this an instawar. The problem is, these days everything is interchangeable and nothing is quite what it’s advertised as being. The US could occupy some random island in the strait (not Kharg) and call that an invasion, then either claim victory or keep up the remote warfare.
I generally avoid the cottage industry of online geopolitical analysis/commentary however Brian Berletic has been very consistent and accurate on Ukraine-Russia, Iran and Venezuela. He also offhandedly rejects the “Israel controls the west and made us do it” anti-semitic BS without erring in the opposite direction of minimizing Israel’s role as the primary aggressor at the behest of NATO.
Jupiviv, a few days ago watched a video in which Colin Powell had conditions on the run up to the invasion of Iraq. What I recall was have Congressional support, International support,
Us Allies support, overwhelming military firepower and men on location and of course a strategic plan and exit. It’s not this administration did not have a blueprint.
But of course, the common denominator of the whole affair is the God Almighty Dollar and it’s preservation as the world reserve currency.
I was 12 when we invaded Iraq. Remember writing an essay for school where I argued that the war should be stopped immediately because we don’t really want to liberate them from oppression, we just want to steal their oil and be self-righteous about it. I wasn’t precocious by any means. I was basically repeating stuff I’d heard grown-ups say. The teacher, who by all accounts was a card-carrying democrat left-lib, called my parents to discuss my troubling views. I bet that teacher was putting up BLM signs in 2016 though. Probably turned up at the No Kings marches too.
Anyway, I agree, those circumstances were very different. Dissent actually mattered, just a little bit. That’s why it was policed straightforwardly and consistently, at every level of society. Now that essay would be my virtue-signalling ticket to class president. Missed my chance…
“It’s hard to tell what’s true or not when it comes to the instawar but if the US does end up launching a ground invasion…”
Jupiviv, Trump’s habit of gaslighting, simultaneously offering carrots and sticks, and generally saying whatever is expedient in the moment, makes it fiendishly hard to predict where this conflict will go.
I think we can say that the Iranian regime seems disinclined to back down and doesn’t even seem in a hurry to negotiate. Meanwhile, a face-saving off-ramp that will appease Trump’s ego and retroactively justify the expense and chaos caused looks far off.
It has nothing to do with anti-Semitism, it has to do with Netanyahu being a psychopath
Exactly. Labeling everything including rational critique of Israeli policies as antisemitism is a dangerous communication strategy. It seems to me that some populations tend to respond to it by eventually not giving as much of a shit about antisemitism. Lots of small minded folks I guess. There’s quite a feud within MAGA about where Israel’s importance should stand.
“An accurate and realistic response to a world which has changed beyond recognition, where numerous changes are coalescing to create a polycrisis.”
Check and oil up your firearms!
I really need to do that.
I should probably sight in my crossbow, although God knows what my plan with it is. Just an added layer of security, I guess.
Miniature of the Impossible – The Structure That Forgets Itself
A complex system does not recognize itself.
It runs. It grows. It optimizes.
Connections are made everywhere, layers are added, rules accumulate.
It appears robust. It feels inevitable.
Until someone opens a valve no one is watching.
Something starts to leak. Not much. Just a little.
A truck. A few barrels. A link that no longer arrives.
No one intervenes, because the system is large enough to absorb it.
At least, that’s what it assumes.
Complexity has a peculiar trait:
it stacks solutions on top of each other, but loses sight of its own conditions.
What is required to sustain it
becomes part of what it tries to control.
Then something shifts.
Not visible. Not measurable.
But somewhere the balance between input and output changes.
The structure does not notice.
It still calculates with the same assumptions.
Until the moment nothing adds up anymore,
without anything dramatic happening.
No crash. No rupture.
Only an accumulation of small deviations reinforcing each other.
We call it emergence when it grows.
Fragility when it breaks.
The difference is not in the system,
but in the moment we observe it.
And somewhere, at the edge, stands someone with a hose and a tanker truck.
He already understood.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Surge-in-West-Texas-Oil-Theft-Raises-National-Security-Alarms.html
Zip, wow. That is more the sort of thing you would expect to see in Nigeria or Mexico. 😮
Guess we’re effectively “post-peak,” wouldnya say?
Mike, in terms of both total global liquid fuels production and total globe crude and condensate production, I would guess we have passed peak. Collapse has been hastened.
Too bad the No Kings doesn’t change a god dam thing or system. Everything is rolling along the war is getting worse along with economy is getting worse by the day. The same politicians in bed with big tech, big pharma and big war machine keeps going and the Israel lobby. I am sure they will have another protest as our computers stop working and no food on the shelves too.
Heather, I’m sure they will. 😬
While we may debate the future of AI as a technology, the impact of AI on our lives right now is, as illustrated by today’s Panopticontribution to our knowledge, affecting life everywhere on the planet. This 2’nd world war (my limited intellect is incapable of discerning the difference between a global war and a world war) of this 21’st century has thus far blown things up only on our tv screens, while the people bringing us the images assiduously avoid mentioning that this conflagration, in exactly the same way as the GWBushGWOT, is being brought to us courtesy of Artificial Intelligence: the first time by Colin Powell’s shameful performance at the UN, this time by Trumpian sycophants feeding their Furor the lies he demanded to hear: that’s artificial intelligence.
There are 3 petroStates, the combined output of which supply > 1/3 of the globe’s total 100mln bbl/day of oil. Saudi Arabia & Russia’s supplies have been severely curtailed by the madness engulfing the world (neither can be restored any time soon), while the madcap fracturing that is responsible for the USA’s production faces (by which I mean, ignores) its, “Houston, we have a problem”, moment.
Fracturing: while everyone knew that ag, (which produces “renewable” fuels such as ethanol) requires immense amounts of water, diesel, and fertilizer (All 3 of which are in greater, albeit already constrained) supply now than they will be for the rest of the year), it is less well known that fracturing sucks up enormous quantities of increasingly scarce at any price, water and fuel.
That US oil production will hold at its current level belies belief, hence, by summer, all three of the PetroStates will have had their output seriously, if not permanently, compromised.
The wildfires that will scorch a continent desiccated by decades of fracturing and suffused with methane and CO2 (ps over the weekend the CO2 levels were >5.0 ppm over last year’s … as they remain today) will push already high electricity rates to an extreme never experienced before in the A/C- dependent southern states.
In light of this and the inanity of our war games in which we lack the imagination to understand that mutually assured destruction can exist outside the realm of nuclear arms, these words from Humes have a bone-chilling effect: His claim is that in war, we esteem ourselves as being “equitable, moderate, and merciful”, but the USA does exactly the opposite, it boasts proudly on the world stage that it none of these: DEI? You woke bastard! Moderate? ‘We will bomb them into the stone-age!” Merciful? “I’ll kill their families”; “We negotiate with bombs!”
… Humes goes on to describe how nations at war describe their enemies: “Bloodthirsty and take pleasure in death & destruction”. Which Iran doesn’t have to do, because the Furor, thinks those are qualities, not faults; something he brags about while strolling through the rose Garden of the Beasts. His treachery is what we call “policy”; his cruelty, manifest enough in his Board of War-profiteering, is now given full rein as he creates the sterile, futile, empty future he promised … The Furor’s partner in (war) crime, Netanyahu, once told him that the phrase ,“‘A picture’s worth a thousand words’ has got it all wrong”, insisting that instead, it’s a word’ that’s worth a thousand pictures. The word he suggested? MAGA.
Let the water wars commence .
Denver Imposes Water Restrictions, Orders Restaurants to Serve Only on Request .
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/denver-imposes-water-restrictions-restaurants-to-serve-only-on-request-6005032
Heather B on March 30, 2026 at 4:41 pm
“Too bad the No Kings doesn’t change a god dam thing or system. Everything is rolling along the war is getting worse along with economy is getting worse by the day. The same politicians in bed with big tech, big pharma and big war machine keeps going and the Israel lobby. I am sure they will have another protest as our computers stop working and no food on the shelves too.”
Millions going through the motions, and will again, and again… mostly all nice & peaceful – especially if the weather is nice. In Australia’s capital, the locals call them “Protestivals” 🙂 I suspect the war is going to go on for many months yet, and will end up as Trump’s Vietnam – perhaps even institute conscription/draft. But seeing the scale of the damage already done – I cannot see a return to “before” even if it stopped tomorrow.
Cutting excise/tax on petrol our govt trying to “help”, Dairy farmers lobbying for a return to glass bottles for milk
Bloody algorithms though – since the war started, my Youtube * socials’ feeds are chock full of home-grown local prepper “advice” & how-to’s… *shake head* even one on “Bugout bags for seniors”..
Sheesh.
Consider not using the youtube app. Go to it on a browser and don’t log in to youtube. Stop feeding the beast. 🙂
Watch out for water desalination facilities being attacked and rendered non functioning in Iran, GCC, and Israel. Iran gets some water from ground and surface. GCC is much more reliant on desalination plants than Iran is. If desalination goes out then 100 million folks are gonna very quickly die from lack of water.