Huge thanks to my sponsor for March, the splendid Professor Pongoo.
“Even without El Niño, Global Sea Surface Temperatures are already hitting daily record highs.
“We’re now entering a climate hotter than has existed for hundreds of thousands of years!”
[Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/2034315967505846493
“Super El Niño Could Push Global Temperatures Beyond Anything We’ve Recorded.
“With temperatures typically running warmer during El Niño years, the combination of this natural climate pattern with ongoing global warming trends could create conditions unlike anything previously recorded.”
https://www.altitudesmagazine.com/super-el-nino-global-temperatures-unprecedented-highs-climate/
“Yet another new record daily low was set for Arctic sea-ice extent, over 50,000 km² below the previous record daily low, set on March 17, 2017.
“Meanwhile, a new record low yearly maximum for extent is looking increasingly likely. Stay tuned!” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2034257174701244847
“Over 300 People Evacuated in Norwegian City [Alesund] Due to Forest Fire.
“The fire, which broke out near residential areas, prompted authorities to take urgent safety measures and evacuate the population. The large-scale fire began on the afternoon of 17 March in a forested area on one of the islands where the city is located.”
https://ua.news/en/world/u-norvezkomu-misti-evakuiuvali-ponad-300-liudei-cherez-lisovu-pozhezhu
“Moldovans face drinking water cut-off as strike on Ukrainian site causes major oil spill…
“Authorities in Moldova declared an 15-day environmental crisis alert on Sunday as a discharge of oil and toxic substances descended down the Dniester River, a key source of drinking water for Moldova.”
https://tvpworld.com/92139933/water-cut-off-in-parts-of-moldova-over-dniester-river-pollution
“Extreme weather has wiped out cereal production equivalent to more than a tenth of England’s arable land, raising alarm over the growing threat to UK food security.
“New figures from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) show that harvest losses in 2024 and 2025 equate to around 13% of the land used to grow wheat, barley and oats…”
“Global deforestation grows unchecked as the EU weakens key law…
“Europe’s role in deforestation is not passive; its actions contribute to the problem. The EU legislation, known as the Regulation against Imported Deforestation, seeks to ensure that products like soy, palm oil, and cocoa do not come from deforested areas.”
“EU must stop banned chemicals being sold to Africa, judge urges MEPs.
“A panel of South African judges have urged the EU to ban chemicals and pesticides which have already been banned within the bloc from being exported overseas, at a hearing of the European Parliament’s human rights committee on Wednesday.”
https://euobserver.com/207474/eu-must-stop-banned-chemicals-being-sold-to-africa-judge-urges-meps/
“Bad weather, several interventions by the Fire Brigade in Cosenza: images of flooding [Italy]…
“In Crosia, due to the flooding of the Trionto river, rescues are underway of people stuck in their cars due to the rise in water levels. The rescue device of the Cosenza fire brigade command has been strengthened, also with the sending of teams from the Crotone command.”
“Italy warns Russian tanker could explode in Mediterranean at any time.
“Speaking on Italy’s Radio 24, the secretary of Italy’s Council of Ministers, Alfredo Mantovano, said the risks from the tanker were “enormous” and warned that it could “explode at any moment”. It is said to be carrying “significant” quantities of liquid natural gas…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn9e9dxw3e1o
“Tripoli declares holiday as severe weather hits western Libya…
“The National Meteorological Centre warned residents in western regions, particularly in Tripoli and surrounding areas, to remain indoors overnight into Tuesday morning as severe weather continues.”
https://libyaobserver.ly/news/tripoli-declares-holiday-severe-weather-hits-western-libya
“Tenerife declares island-wide emergency as Storm Therese approaches…
“The island’s government has activated its emergency response framework (PEIN) from Wednesday afternoon, citing forecasts of winds exceeding 100 km/h and intense rainfall that could surpass 300 litres per square metre in some areas.”
“Mozambique has ordered the evacuation of residents in low-lying areas of Inhambane, Gaza and Sofala provinces amid fears of a possible second wave of flooding.
“National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction (INGD) president Luísa Meque urged communities to remain vigilant and move to safer ground.”
https://apanews.net/mozambique-orders-evacuations-as-floods-loom/
“Kenya flood death toll rises to 71 as forecasters warn of renewed heavy rainfall.
“At least 71 people have died in flood-related incidents across Kenya since March 6, 2026, with Nairobi the hardest-hit area, as the Kenya Meteorological Department issued a Heavy Rainfall Advisory on March 18, warning that rainfall will intensify again…”
“MIDDLE EAST RECORD HEAT; more records in OMAN:
“March Highest temperatures: 40.6 [105.1F] Yaaloni, 40.6 Sohar, 39.2 Ras Al Hadd… March Highest Minimums: 29.1 Qalhat, 26.8 Ras Al Hadd. These temperatures are typical of May-June.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2034298497210740898
“Iran Bushehr nuclear plant missile strike risk raises fears of Gulf-wide water crisis.
“In the worst-case scenario, the Bushehr NPP could take a direct hit and spill radioactive waste, or even just its cooling water, into the Persian Gulf, as the facility was built directly on the coast. The IAEA warned that would cause many or most of the hundred-odd desalination plants along the coast to be closed…”
“Toxic pollution from Iran war will spread and last for decades…
“Already before this war, Tehran was heavily polluted. Researchers including Rahmanian have detected high levels of fine particulate matter and heavy metals such as lead, cadmium, chromium and nickel in the city’s water and air.”
“The water crisis in Central Asia has tripled in two generations.
“During the Soviet period, the Central Asian republics were stereotypically perceived as an arid region. But over the last 40 years, water availability per capita in the region has become even more scarce – it has decreased by more than three times.”
https://logos-pres.md/en/news/the-water-crisis-in-central-asia-has-tripled-in-two-generations/
“Himalayan fire shift: Tale of flames and ice unfolding across the range…
“Analysis of satellite data by Down To Earth (DTE) shows that over the past decade forest fires in high-elevation areas in the western Himalayas have quadrupled.“
“Dharwad: Unusual Hailstorm Hits Machapur, Leaves Trail Of Damage [central India].
“While hailstorms are common in north Karnataka during the pre-monsoon season, the one witnessed in Machapur village in Kalghatgi taluk of Dharwad district was unusual in its intensity, causing widespread damage to houses, cattle, crops and even disrupting vehicular movement.”
“Hailstorm, nor’wester damage crops, homes [Bangladesh]…
“Wasim Mia, a resident of Bohuli village in Purbadhala upazila, said, “Our house has been blown away by the storm. I do not know where to go with my wife and children for shelter.””
https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/hailstorm-norwester-damage-crops-homes-4129671
“Cyclone Narelle: ‘compact’, dangerous and unusually predictable [Australia].
“Tropical Cyclone Narelle is currently a very dangerous Category 5 storm, sitting off the Far North Queensland Coast some 350 kilometres northeast of Cooktown. Formed in the Coral Sea, Narelle is packing a punch, with sustained winds near the centre of 205km per hour and wind gusts to 285km per hour [177mph].”
https://theconversation.com/cyclone-narelle-compact-dangerous-and-unusually-predictable-278767
“Rapid melting of Antarctic sea ice is largely driven by ocean warming, research reveals.
“Sea ice around Antarctica expanded for several decades until a dramatic decline in 2015. The reasons behind this are revealed by research led by the University of Gothenburg, which is published in Nature Climate Change.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-03-rapid-antarctic-sea-ice-largely.html
“Century-old corals in South Pacific threatened by bottom trawling…
“In bottom trawling, weighted nets are dragged across the seafloor, and doors and cables can snap corals and strip away sponges. Those animals grow as living structures, so when gear crushes them, fish and smaller invertebrates lose shelter and feeding surfaces.”
https://www.earth.com/news/century-old-corals-in-south-pacific-threatened-by-bottom-trawling/
“Hawaii faces second kona low after record-breaking flood devastation.
“A new kona low is brewing just days after a historic storm shattered rainfall records across the islands. With the ground already saturated, Hawaii News Now warns that even moderate rain could trigger immediate new flooding.”
https://www.fox13seattle.com/news/second-kona-low-hawaii
“Late season heat wave in South America between Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia with temperatures up to 40C [104C].
“Record heat for mid March in URUGUAY yesterday – 38.0C at Paso de los Toros which is also only 0.6C from its full March record.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2033972558266286150
“MotoGP, Brazil, BREAKING NEWS: Torrential rain in Goiânia, the city paralyzed by exceptional weather!
“City Goiânia, capital of the state of Goiás which is to host the Grand Prix MotoGP Brazil, which will begin tomorrow, was hit yesterday by torrential rain of rare intensity, causing significant disruptions and widespread material damage.”
“A man cleaning windows on a tower in Puerto Madero had to be rescued during a storm [Argentina].
“The rescue operation carried out by the City Fire Department involved the use of special equipment to free the worker, who was left hanging by a harness at the height of the second floor.”
“Amazon waterway noise threatens unique social life of giant river turtles.
“A planned shipping waterway on the Tapajós River, a major tributary of the Amazon, may disrupt the sophisticated social communication systems used by the Amazon river turtle (Podocnemis expansa), a species likely to be endangered.”
“Tragedy at Olmeca Refinery: Fire Claims Lives After Heavy Rains [southern Mexico]…
“Pemex officials indicate that the overflow of oily water outside the refinery, which subsequently caught fire, was due to intense rainfall. The company is currently collaborating with authorities to investigate the precise cause of this fatal incident.”
“Yesterday final MINIMUM at San Felipe, Mexico was 27.8C [82F].
“This pulverized its previous March record of highest Minimum by a margin of 7.7C, it beats that of April and also that of May and also that of the first ten days of June!“
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2034253248190918858
“Drought hits gulf fisheries, sparking food security fears…
“”Our results demonstrate how climate extremes on land can directly affect marine food production,” Kirtman said. “As droughts become more frequent and intense under climate change, the risks to seafood supply and coastal economies increase.””
https://phys.org/news/2026-03-drought-gulf-fisheries-food.html
“Massive dust storm sweeps across Texas as cold front triggers chaos…
“The winds kicked up dry soil from the plains and sent it racing across highways, towns, and open land. In a matter of minutes, visibility dropped, and what started as a windy afternoon quickly became dangerous.”
https://www.earth.com/image/massive-dust-storm-sweeps-across-texas-as-cold-front-triggers-chaos/
“‘A blaring alarm’ issued for Colorado River as heat wave melts snow early…
“The news comes days after the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that manages water and dams in the American West, released a bleak warning for levels at Lake Mead — Southern Nevada’s main water source — and Lake Powell.”
“The temperature in Phoenix hit 102 degrees on March 18, a moment that meteorologists said smashed several weather records in one fell swoop.
“The high watermark — notched at around 4:59 p.m. — marked the earliest triple-digit temperature in Phoenix’s recorded history [105F at Yuma was hottest March day ever for Arizona, per Extreme Temps].
“California tied the highest winter temperature ever measured in the U.S. on Wednesday, as a heat wave intensified and shattered records across the state.
“A weather station in the Dos Palmas Preserve of eastern Coachella Valley recorded a temperature of 108 degrees. That ties the U.S. March record with Rio Grande City, Texas.”
https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/california-winter-heat-record-22084546.php
“Multiple Tahoe ski resorts close for the season as record-high temperatures hit the region…
“Homewood’s assistant general manager, Jack Bentley, told us that after the mid-February storm, the site’s snowpack was roughly 90 inches. But rainstorms at the tail end of the month cut that number in half, and they’ve seen it dwindle ever since.”
“EXTRAORDINARY DAY FOR THE HISTORY…
“86F Belle Fourche is WYOMING HOTTEST MARCH DAY IN HISTORY.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2034464627669729593
“Nebraska Wildfires Consume Nearly 800,000 Acres.
“The Morrill fire, the largest wildfire in state history, was 16 percent contained on Wednesday. The blaze was blamed for the death of an 86-year-old woman, the governor said… The fires, which started on Thursday last week, were burning as much of Nebraska was in drought conditions.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/us/nebraska-wildfires-evacuations.html
“US Home Insurance Prices Set to Keep Rising With Severe Weather.
“The average annual premium is projected to increase 4% to about $3,057 this year, after jumping 12% in 2025, according to Insurify, an online insurance comparison site. The expected gain follows several years of steep growth in rates.”
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2026/03/18/862372.htm
“Atmospheric rivers drench coastal B.C., triggering flood and avalanche risks…
“Environment Canada upgraded its rainfall warnings to orange on Tuesday for B.C.’s central coast and the west coast of Vancouver Island, with up to 200 millimetres of rain possible by Wednesday.”
“Refugee camps set to be uninhabitable by 2050 as extreme weather worsens…
““Whether it is floods sweeping South Sudan and Brazil, record-breaking heat in Kenya and Pakistan, or water shortages in Chad and Ethiopia, extreme weather is pushing already fragile communities to the brink,” the UN agency said.”
https://africa24tv.com/refugee-camps-set-to-be-uninhabitable-by-2050-as-extreme-weather-worsens/
“Wildfires in carbon-rich tropical peatlands hit 2000-year high…
“By analyzing charcoal preserved in peat across multiple continents, scientists discovered that fires had actually been declining for more than a thousand years, largely shaped by natural climate patterns like drought. That long trend suddenly reversed in the 20th century, with a sharp surge in wildfires—especially in Southeast Asia and Australasia.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/03/260319005110.htm
“Earth’s changing climate is harming crop diversity exactly where the security of global food production needs it most…
“Researchers predict that about one-third of global food production may be in jeopardy due to higher temperatures, underscoring how climate change is expected to reshape agriculture, especially in vulnerable low-latitude countries.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.


“My language would be even more apocalyptic today.”
– Paul Ehrlich
Paul died last week at 93. The quote above is from 2015.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/books/paul-r-ehrlich-dead.html?unlocked_article_code=1.UVA.eNNQ.ZRtiOKp02mAW&smid=url-share
RIP, Paul Ehrlich. Ehrlich, Malthus et al will have the last laugh, but it will be a very hollow one.
When somebody asks me for a solution after my lecture on ” peak oil ” . I have to say ” I have none ” . When all collapses all of us here can only say ” I told you so ” . But we are in good company .😭
Ravi, you reminded me of Paul Chefurka’s excellent article, Climbing The Ladder of Awareness.
On the fifth and final rung, “The very concept of a “Solution” is seen through, and cast aside as a waste of effort.”
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/LadderOfAwareness.html
Pano, Ravi, I agree, “I told you so” will be small, cold consolation.
Quark’s latest is titled “The Biggest Crisis In History”
Direct link: https://tinyurl.com/2zv7837x
Google translated, copied and pasted, five charts/images missing:
We had an adjustment pending. We didn’t know when it would begin, but its arrival was absolutely certain. I’m referring to the oil reserves versus oil consumption curves.
Because?
Oil demand continues to grow and after the IEA’s latest review in its WEO 2025, it looks like it will continue to grow for a few more years.
On the other hand, “real” crude oil reserves have been steadily declining for decades, but in the last decade, the rate of decline has accelerated. This is due to the almost complete absence of new discoveries (of both gas and oil).
I always include these two graphs that represent the two opposing trends.
Discoveries (the blue bars) and oil production (the red circles).
Anyone can understand that if the blue bars are well below the red circles, it means we are depleting reserves, and since that trend began in the 1980s, we are in an advanced state of reserve depletion.
This second chart makes it very clear. The red circles now represent the total amount of conventional oil discovered. The blue circles and their upward trend represent the oil consumed. And therefore, the green circles and their dramatic downward trend represent the remaining reserves.
The current replacement rate is between 10-20% of consumption each year. This is the point that truly puts us on the brink of disaster, since the best reserves have long since been depleted, and those that remain are much more expensive, difficult, and complex to extract.
Well, this is just an introduction to the problem at hand.
Take a look at this graphic showing the oil and gas fields in the Middle East and southern Russia. The fields in black are oil fields, and those in red are gas fields.
In the center of the image, you can see the enormous gas field (the largest in the world) shared by Qatar and Iran. It’s a behemoth that produces a lot of gas, but also condensates (oil) and, after appropriate processing, helium and fertilizers (urea, sulfur).
Yesterday, the Iranian side was attacked by Israel with heavy damage (this field produces 75% of Iran’s gas) and the Iranian response destroyed Qatar’s facilities, leaving the field out of service for a good while.
The consequences of the conflict are incalculable. They affect the production and export of raw materials, but they also impact financial markets.
a). Raw materials.
The full consequences of these attacks will take a long time to be felt, perhaps more than a year. But even now, we already know that putting these vast quantities of valuable raw materials out of the world’s reach will come at a price we cannot afford.
1) 20% of global LNG exports have been cut off. And it no longer matters whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens or not. It will take some time to know how long it will take them to restart LNG processing plants, but this has affected not only current production but also Qatar’s planned expansion .
“ In Qatar, we are implementing projects to expand LNG production from the North Field, the world’s largest non-associated gas field. Our North East Field (NFE) project will increase Qatar’s LNG production capacity from its current 77 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) to 110 MTPA. NFE represents the first phase of expansion; the second phase, the North South Field (NFS) project, will further increase Qatar’s LNG production capacity to 126 MTPA. A third phase, the North West Field (NFW) project, will boost Qatar’s LNG production to 142 MTPA by the end of 2030. ”
The IEA has been boasting about an LNG surplus , not only because of the current situation (before the conflict, obviously), but also because of the expansion of Qatar’s gas project (in addition to US projects). As we can see, we have not only lost 20% of global LNG exports, but the expansion that would have doubled Qatar’s production capacity has also been delayed (we don’t know for how long), wiping out the surplus in one fell swoop and creating a considerable deficit.
2nd). Qatar produces 33% of the world’s helium .
It’s now out of the market for a long time and can’t be replaced overnight.
Helium is essential in the production of advanced chips .
“ Helium is an essential component in semiconductor manufacturing , used in the chip fabrication process. It helps maintain optimal conditions during production. In the lithography process, it is used to establish a stable vacuum environment and ensure the precise alignment and exposure of the photomasks. It also contributes to the cooling of semiconductor materials, thus reducing thermal stress that could negatively affect chip functionality. Unlike other industrial gases, there is no effective substitute for helium in chip production. ”
Major plants in South Korea and Taiwan rely on helium imports from Qatar and will now be unable to access that helium quota for months, which will slow down semiconductor production when their existing inventories run out.
3) Qatar is also a major global producer of urea, sulfur, and ammonia . Since we are no longer talking about a minimal disruption (weeks), but likely many months, it means we are facing a major disruption to the fertilizer sector.
4th). The aluminum market has been disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“ The closure of ports and plants will likely cause significant turbulence in the aluminum market. In February, we projected a global market deficit of 200,000 tons in 2026, widening to 800,000 tons by 2028. The loss of metal exports from the GCC will significantly adjust the market balance over the next 6-12 months. There are no viable ways to offset the loss resulting from disruptions to shipping or prolonged closures .”
5th). Exports of oil and derivative products amounted to almost 21 million b/d, which passed through the strait daily.
Now, barely 1 million barrels per day (b/d) from Iran and a few LPG shipments bound for India and China pass through. The diversion of the UAE pipeline to Fujairah is disabled due to continuous attacks, leaving only the pipeline to Yanbu in Saudi Arabia ( currently transporting 4 million b/d ) and the small connection through Iraqi Kurdistan (250,000 b/d).
That is, around 15 million b/d of crude oil and derivatives are out of service after three weeks of war.
They tell us it’s not important because 400 million barrels have been released from strategic reserves, but the truth is that the only thing that has prevented a supply shortage so far has been oil in transit. Those ships will finish unloading soon, and at that point we’ll know the real situation.
However, in certain places in the first world (I’m not talking about Africa, where scarcity is common), there are already scenes of scarcity.
Japan , Sri Lanka , India’s LPG , Thailand and Australia are some examples.
In the next two weeks, shortages and rationing will begin to proliferate, and as usual, none of this has resonated with Western public opinion.
As Novak says in Russia , we are facing the biggest energy crisis in the last 40 years. I would add, for now, because everything is going to get worse when the contagion spreads to the financial markets.
b) Financial markets.
Yesterday I was talking about the disconnect. The stock and bond markets have barely been affected by the conflict.
From the beginning, the focus has been on a passing episode that would not affect the global financial health, ignoring the effects of the first, second, and third rounds.
1st). Inflation.
Yesterday we learned the US PPI figures for February (that is, before the start of the war). They were truly disastrous and already foreshadow a rising and almost uncontrolled inflation.
The US has been lowering interest rates in 2025, while PPI inflation (remember producer price inflation, which precedes the CPI in its movements) was soaring, as can be seen in the chart.
After the sharp increases in energy, fertilizers and aluminum, the CPI is going to start its new upward trend, with a high probability of exceeding the peak of 2022.
b) The bond market.
As I’ve already mentioned, several countries are facing a precipice in their bond markets. Just a small push and the crisis will be unstoppable (debt is a crushing weight on public finances due to the financial costs associated with it).
But the problem is global, because indebtedness is widespread throughout the world.
The combination of rising debt (investments in defense, energy transition, AI, increasing pensions and now automatic stabilizers resulting from the incipient crisis), with a sharp rise in interest rates to curb inflation, will create the necessary breeding ground for a crisis unparalleled in history (due to its depth and extent in the number of countries) to develop.
We are already approaching the point of no return, and the rise in commodity prices will eventually push us past that point, with the well-known consequences, when positions begin to be executed to settle debts.
Central banks have been monitoring the situation since 2008, but this time the tsunami is too powerful. It will take some time to see if the central banks’ seemingly inexhaustible resources are enough to stem this collapse. But as we all know, the kryptonite of central banks is inflation, which ties their hands, and that’s why this time, a definitive collapse is extremely dangerous.
c) The stock market.
So far, the most resilient. In part, the protective equipment has worked very well, and also the feeling among investors that this war was short-lived.
But time is passing and the effects are accumulating. We only have to wait a few more weeks for the damage to become irreversible, if it isn’t already.
Israel’s attack on gas production fields in Iran is irreparable and jeopardizes future production throughout the Middle East. If the fields are damaged (the refineries have already suffered considerable damage), closing the strait will no longer matter, because the effects will be permanent for much longer than a few weeks, and this is certainly not priced in by the markets.
The stock market crash has the power to destroy the “wealth effect” for investors and contribute to a sharp drop in consumption, as the feeling of losses spreads through stock exchanges around the world.
Conclusion.
Yes, all this you’re telling us is very good, but why is it the worst crisis in history?
The introduction has its importance in this story.
We were already anticipating a reduction in oil and gas production and, therefore, a significant decrease in energy supply. As we know, economic growth is closely linked to increased energy production, and the accelerated depletion of reserves was also leading to a decline in oil and gas production. But the final stage had not yet begun.
The Middle East crisis not only brings a massive supply deficit, but also precipitates a financial crisis that combines the bursting of bubbles due to the rampant increase in debt (which has been used to inflate asset prices), the expected collapse of markets, and a new era where investment is virtually nonexistent. If a crisis erupts, it logically unfolds in three phases , and after the last, hyperinflation, a colossal economic depression follows, where investment vanishes because no one will have any money.
If investment disappears, the trend toward oil and gas production will fall proportionally. The collapse in consumption associated with economic depression typically reduces commodity prices and discourages investment in new fields due to a lack of profitability. If, in addition, there is no money, investment falls to historic lows, and we know that without investment, the decline of fields is far too rapid, causing a sharp decrease in global production. This process, which is reinforced by successive economic downturns, ultimately pushes oil and gas production well below current levels, preventing economic recovery when there is insufficient energy.
The initial crash represents a steep decline, and the subsequent economic depression generates a prolonged, self-reinforcing decrease, sinking the economy in subsequent years.
In short, we’ve gone from perpetual economic growth to a self-perpetuating economic contraction. This isn’t a cyclical crisis, but the beginning of a permanent decline.
In any case, it’s just an opinion on something that’s been brewing for a long time. If I was waiting for a trigger, the closure of Hormuz is the perfect opportunity to start that process.
We’ll see.
Permanent decline!
There are at least four major stories developing (super El Nino and climate change acceleration with a noticeable jump above 1.5 to come, tipping into global food and resource scarcity, geopolitical anarchy and chaos, financial bubbles popping) any one of which would make for numerous books about this year alone, but they are all happening at once, which should be no surprise as they would all be chapters in one book: “Overshoot comes a-knockin'”. Below is a bit to add to the oil story.
Norway government agency NPD is predicting a 250,000 bpd drop in oil production this year. In recent years GoM has completed four deep water wells per month and two shallow, this year there have been five deep water and no shallow water, and none at all since the first week of February, so I think there will be a similar fall of about 200 to 250,000.
Kazakhstan will also fall 250,000 as will non-Permian US LTO. Medium-small sized decliners combined will lose 300,000, China maybe 150,000, Mexico 100,000, Nigeria also looks to be falling from a secondary peak now. So that is 1.3 to 1.6 drop. Only Brazil and Guyana have much to add of significance. More unknown are Russia and Permian LTO but I think a fall of around 2 million was always likely even before Hormuz
Those are December numbers (called annual exit in the industry as I recall). The Gulf countries will lose a lot more over spring and summer but may get some back for an exit number, but the average annual lose could be 5 million or more. After this year the 2 million lost from the named suppliers above will likely get bigger in an accelerating trend, but on top geopolitical upsets are going to be playing greater parts in unpredictable oil supply upsets. Just one guy’s opinion, to quote Cheers I think.
p.s. Rayo Negro’s pieces are excellent and, on top of the knowledge and insights, he shows amazing stamina and dedication to keep them coming – one thing he might consider to add a bit of clarity would be to show R/P values, now and as a trend, to show how we are rapidly approaching, and probably are now at, a day of significant reckoning (the downward trend for a lot of resources is quite dramatic).
Thanks as always for your update, George. And your pithy summary: “Overshoot comes a-knockin’”.
The Bank of England has paused interest rate cuts.
Heating gas has gone up from 73p per litre to £1.28 per litre here on Islay (which is actually not bad, comparing it to other places in Scotland).
Thanks George. Great information as always.
Agreed. Thank you, George.
Rayo Negro is describing the jagged, oscillating decline scenario postulated by David Korowicz in his 2010 “Tipping Point; Systemic Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production” paper.
He did not at that time see geopolitical friction as a potential trigger for a peaking of global production, though. Complete systemic collapse was another possibility he outlined.
https://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Tipping-Point-Nov.pdf
Thanks so much for posting that, Flippr. He really lays it out!!! 😱
Zero private sector job creation in the last 6 months according to Powell
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2034343327017918910?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2034343327017918910%7Ctwgr%5E44e23ad18afb572acfa4ec37e791f344addf5606%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.godlikeproductions.com%2Fforum1%2Fmessage6149085%2Fpg1
Federal debt just went over 39 Trillion and the Pentagon is asking for an additional 200 Billion because of the Middle East.
Military overspend is classic late-stage empire stuff, to the point of cliché. Neighbouring Canada having some issues on the jobs front, too:
“Canadians have lost more than 100,000 full-time jobs since the beginning of 2026, adding pressure on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government as it seeks to shield the economy from the impact of US tariffs on Canada.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1d6lk1n91xo
We don’t seem to be running out of new recipes for Gasoline Gumbo, but at least shipping in and out of the Amazon will be more efficient.
Homo collossus’ tenure needs to end soon and abruptly.
“Gasoline Gumbo” refers to the beloved, hearty breakfast gumbo served at local Louisiana gas stations and convenience stores, such as the Satsuma Chevron:
https://www.facebook.com/satsumachevron/
I did not know that was a thing, Leaf.
Hi Pan. I thought I made that up as another variation of Prof. Eliot’s “car stew,” but it’s already a thing.
Good morning!
We’re fucked!
We are a bit, Mike B.
This story doesn’t seem to be getting much attention. It looks like Chinese fishing vessels practicing a blockade of Taiwan. Whatever is going on, as the story says its not about fishing
Japanese Prime Minister visits Washington today.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260313-thousands-of-chinese-boats-mass-at-sea-raising-questions
FWIW:
“China not planning to invade Taiwan in 2027, US intelligence agencies say. The report prompted Japan to reassert that it would defend Taiwan if China launched a military invasion, rejecting US claims of a “significant shift” in Tokyo’s stance.”
https://news.sky.com/story/china-not-planning-to-invade-taiwan-in-2027-us-intelligence-agencies-say-13521682
There are currently two narratives unfolding side by side. They do not intersect, they do not acknowledge each other, yet they describe the same reality.
On one side is the narrative of systemic crisis. This is the perspective of Quark and others. It focuses on long-term trends: depletion of oil fields, declining EROEI, and the gradual disappearance of the energy surplus that made modern prosperity possible. In this view, the crisis is not an event but a process. Not a moment, but a direction. The curves have been diverging for decades, and what we are witnessing now is merely the visible phase of something long underway.
On the other side is the narrative of shock crisis. This is the language of governments, central banks, and daily news. Reality is framed as a sequence of disruptions: a war, a price spike, a supply chain breakdown. Each problem has a cause and therefore, implicitly, a solution. The vocabulary revolves around measures, buffers, interest rates, and temporary interventions.
The tension arises because both narratives appear true, yet they are fundamentally incompatible. In the shock narrative, recovery is always possible. In the systemic narrative, recovery is part of the problem, as it accelerates underlying depletion.
As long as physical limits express themselves through isolated shocks, the shock narrative remains dominant. Everything still appears manageable. But once shocks no longer fade, and instead begin to accumulate and reinforce one another, the interpretation shifts.
That is the tipping point.
Not when the crisis begins, but when it is understood that it will not end.
And that is where the real void emerges.
Because for that phase, no narrative exists. Not within governments, not within central banks, and not even among those who today interpret every development as a systemic crisis. They describe the direction, but not the form. No one truly knows what a society looks like when it is structurally contracting, when energy does not return, and recovery is no longer an option.
That is the moment when analysis ends and experience begins.
We are no longer entering a crisis, but uncharted territory.
“We are no longer entering a crisis, but uncharted territory.”
Agreed but I would add that reality catches us unawares even when we know it will. This war in itself will not be the uncharted territory. That will be this summer, when we shall witness in real time the intersection of AGW and net energy decline, albeit the latter induced “artificially” through war (not really though, war is a feature not a bug!)
“That is the tipping point. Not when the crisis begins, but when it is understood that it will not end.”
We have seen some awareness of this dawning, with new words like “polycrisis” and “permacrisis” conjured up to encapsulate it.
The real worry is when markets digest the reality that growth is over in major economies no matter how much debt you throw at the problem. Credit markets would freeze up, if something hasn’t caused that already.
Wait, is C&E a covert branch of the UK ECIU mentioned in the link, the Energy and.Climate Intelligence Unit?
Do you guys in C&E/ECIU get badges?
Well spotted, Martin. 😆
We don’t but I should totally hit them up for some merch.
So much in Pan’s thread today could be commented on. I read the story about the abandoned tanker leaking in the Mediterranean. Not one word about what is being done to contain this impending disaster. So I did a search and here’s the short version:
“No country has yet taken formal action to tow or secure the ship, leaving the situation in legal and diplomatic limbo.”
Homo (not)sapiens polluting our way to the extinction of most life as currently exists. Way to go!
Mike B (above) sums it up!
Italy is now saying that the tanker is Libya’s responsibility, as it has floated into their territorial waters. I imagine the Libyans are thrilled about this.
This reminded me of a game we played as kids – tag, you’re it!
This tanker article pairs well with another from today: Toxic pollution from Iran war will spread and last for decades…
Meh…
On Wednesday night, the Washington Post reported that “U.S. officials detected unidentified drones above the Washington Army base where Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth live” and that those officials have not yet determined where they came from.
Both Defense Secretary & Secretary of Hate, and National Security Adviser reside on the same army base, a legitimate target for a country like Iran that has suffered mightily because of these assassins.
We should remember War has not been declared by either aggressor in this little excursion, so assassination as peacetime foreign policy by both The Board of Peace’s president and its chairman, Little MarcoRubio, playing mini-me to the Furor’s Awesome Powers, have instituted a pax regime in which many of its members’ nations are now ablaze as a direct result of their peacekeeping-through-assassination efforts.
Pax Americana was declared by the GWBush regime as they bombed Afghanistan into the Stone Age and took a cakewalk through a bombed out Iraq.
Please spare us from the peacekeepers.
Spare us indeed, Rob. I see more nations are being roped into this nightmarish misadventure:
“European nations, Japan to join ‘appropriate efforts’ to open Hormuz Strait. Countries are looking for ways to contain record-high prices as the oil and gas crisis deepens.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/19/european-nations-japan-to-join-appropriate-efforts-to-open-hormuz-strait
Besent floats idea of lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea. WSJ
Things must be really bad.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-03-19-2026/card/bessent-floats-lifting-sanctions-on-iranian-oil-at-sea-Ql7qlP6P9pkwJUpQfmtm?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcKWL5aNl7tGQNxD2sXO3JIYCx_agwVoiXORt89MTd8rz19AisBnRspH4fFwG0%3D&gaa_ts=69bc2e32&gaa_sig=AmflczynYPAMMDVBI4ZrVnRV-Rr5W3M6LF4mQH3oFJk5mUZCfNWZKBFG1BVokL5d4dc9SGmqbweO1oEd69ZzSw%3D%3D
They went ahead and temporarily repealed the Jones Act, too; not that it will make a huge difference, as I understand it:
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/19/iran-war-whats-the-jones-act-and-why-has-trump-suspended-it-for-60-days
Yeah things look so bad we are going back to pre Cambrian times!
Not sure if anyone will get my bad geology joke!
“In the immense time period that is the Precambrian, Scotland as a landmass did not exist.”
The horror. 😮
https://www.scottishgeologytrust.org/geology/scotlands-geology/geological-timescale/precambrian-era/
I remember watching an interview that Dr massa did and he talked about that all of models now were leaning towards fast high temperatures and he said this at least 3-4 years ago. None of models with any of new papers were slow rising. All of them were leaning towards the 5 plus faster temps.
Hi Heather … and that was before we blew up the largest gas facilities on the globe, do you think that perhaps a little methane might be leaking from these bombed out methane factories? If you look at a map, you’ll see Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan… the epicenter of global methane emissions even before this imbroglio commenced.
Rob every thing leaks all the time if i understand things from the fraking stuff. My background is more water resources and stuff. I never could stomach the oil and minerals rape but again water raping is just as bad. I have a civil engineering background so i understand alot of the water infrastructure stuff and how it operates and what bad shape its in.
Hey Panopticon, thanks for the high quality resource. The way you organize the information flows awesomely. I respect your crafted news network. You are doing incredible work!
Thank you, Tim – that is very kind of you to say!
Fortunately, or unfortunately, I have been busy with my local personal day-to-day life stuff , but seeing the gas fields, refineries etc blowing up & burning, I was thrown back to the 1990s when Iraq was retreating from Kuwait in the first Gulf War. I was shocked by that, Iraq setting gazillions of oil wells alight behind their retreat .. Took months, almost a year as I recall, to put the fires out, and cap the wells, never to be accessible again… The pollution damage was horrendous, creating oil “lakes” on land, sea slicks and a huge no-go toxic zone in Kuwait similar in size to the Chernobyl envelope.
I decided to look up what has happened around that area in the decades since.
Still bad…
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/11/the-sound-of-roaring-fires-is-still-in-my-memory-30-years-on-from-kuwaits-oil-blazes