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“Another study confirms it: Global warming is speeding up…
“A study released Friday in the journal Geophysical Research Letters is the latest to hammer the point home. Global temperatures rose by 0.35 degree Celsius over the past 10 years, the research finds, compared with an average of 0.2 C each decade between 1970 and 2015.”
https://www.eenews.net/articles/another-study-confirms-it-global-warming-is-speeding-up/
“Earth’s energy imbalance more than doubled in recent decades.
“If surprises lie ahead, for example, from unexpectedly large aerosol forcing (Dr James E Hansen et al., 2023), or an unexpected loss of climate stability, then the imbalance is the first place this can be detected’.” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1921573316071944422
“Runaway Climate: The Point of No Return…
“…observations and modeling reveal three main feedbacks – increased atmospheric water vapor, decreased cloud albedo (reflectivity), and decreased sea ice albedo – and all are amplifying… the danger that today’s accelerated global warming will push Earth past a “point of no return,” with irreversible consequences…” [Jim Hansen]
https://mailchi.mp/caa/runaway-climate-the-point-of-no-return
“Global ocean heat content continues upward and reached a new record high level – new update just in from the Japan Meteorological Agency dataset.”
[Graphic by Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3mgfeumbjik2p
“…in just 5 days March 2026 has broken more heat records worldwide than any full March in history, but that’s nothing to what’s coming next days.
“Expect dozens of thousands of records in North and South America, Northern and Southern Africa, all over Asia and Oceania.” [Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2029746262883664128
“Breaking News! Code Yikes!
“Average Arctic sea-ice thickness is at a *record low* for the date, if we are looking at either the 1-year or 3-year running average [extent is currently second lowest]. I’ll post the volume graphics tomorrow, which are *not* at record lows.” [Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2029699594674917698
“Icelandic Winter Research Survey Records Unprecedented Ocean Temperatures.
“Ocean temperatures around Iceland during winter have reached their highest recorded levels since systematic monitoring began in 1970, according to findings from the latest marine research survey.”
“Last year was the second-warmest year on record in Russia, the state weather agency Rosgidromet said in a climate report.
““The temperature anomaly for Russia in 2025 was +1.24 degrees Celsius, the second-highest after 2020 (+2.03 C),” the report read.”
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/06/2025-was-russias-second-warmest-year-on-record-a92145
“Moscow’s Plans to Build New Rail Routes in North Falling Through…
“Budgetary stringencies, the difficulties of construction in a region threatened by melting permafrost, and the fact that most routes will not be useful until they are completed have resulted in a spate of further delays and even the likely cancellation of many.”
https://jamestown.org/moscows-plans-to-build-new-rail-routes-in-north-falling-through/
“Scotland facing escalating threat from wildfires – report…
“Agriculture Minister Jim Fairlie welcomed the new strategy but said that “each of us has a part to play in preventing wildfires”. He added: “Last year’s wildfires were a warning that we must be prepared for this to be a more regular occurrence as a result of climate change.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx28wez183eo
“The UK hay crisis: how extreme weather is redefining forage, welfare and costs for horse owners…
“Speaking at the 2026 National Equine Forum (NEF), which took place on 5 March, Dr Katie Williams, technical manager at Dengie Horse Feeds, opened by casting minds back to the extraordinary conditions of 2025, describing them as genuinely “unprecedented”.”
https://www.yourhorse.co.uk/features/the-uk-hay-crisis-update-march-2026/
“Balayage to biodiversity: Are Europe’s hairdressers the secret weapon in tackling climate change?
“Hair salons have become a ‘hub of trust’ that could encourage public engagement on climate change, new research has found. Scientists have taken to the salon after realising hairdressers may be an “under-recognised” weapon in fuelling climate action.”
“Even if warming is limited to 2°C, wildfires, storms and beetles may boost Europe forest loss…
“According to the study, forests in Southern and Western Europe will be particularly affected and will undergo the strongest changes in forest disturbance… “In the future, Europe’s forests are likely to absorb less carbon,” says Christopher Reyer, scientist at PIK and co-author of the study.”
https://phys.org/news/2026-03-limited-2c-wildfires-storms-beetles.html
“Greece Records Its Second-Warmest Winter in 65 Years [of record-keeping].
“While the winter of 2023–2024 remains the warmest on record, the most recent winter—from December 2025 to February 2026—closely follows it, with relatively few periods of typical seasonal cold.”
https://greekreporter.com/2026/03/06/greece-records-second-warmest-winter-65-years/
“RECORD HEAT IN SOUTH AFRICA:
“As announced, fierce and humid heat is back in South Africa. Tonight was an exceptionally hot night with Minimums up to 26.0C [78.8F] at Mbazwana, its March hottest night in history. More records on the weekend in ZA and Mozambique!”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2029863149239959906
“Kampala flooded again after heavy afternoon rain [Uganda].
“A Friday evening downpour triggered floods that affected motorists, traders, and pedestrians in various parts of the city. In the downtown Kampala Business District, dozens of shops were flooded. Several roads were also flooded…”
https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/pictorial/kampala-flooded-again-after-heavy-afternoon-rain–5382226
“Military deployed to support rescue operations in Nairobi as floods wreak havoc [Kenya].
“The Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) have been deployed to support rescue and emergency response operations in Nairobi as heavy rains triggered widespread flooding across several parts of the city.”
“From Tigris and Euphrates to Nile: Growing Water Challenges Raise Regional Tensions…
“Analysts increasingly emphasize the need for regional dialogue, joint water management strategies, and cooperative agreements to ensure long-term water security and prevent further geopolitical tensions.”
“Water and Security in the Middle East: Lessons from the Iranian Crisis..
“One observation stands out: political transitions, whatever they may be, have no mechanical effect on hydrological cycles. A regime change does not reverse land subsidence, does not desalinize agricultural land, does not increase precipitation.”
“Uzbekistan allocates $47mn to prevent water shortages…
“The decree sets key targets for modernizing irrigation infrastructure managed by the Ministry of Water Resources of Uzbekistan, including the reconstruction and concrete lining of 389 kilometers of canals with high water losses.”
https://daryo.uz/en/2026/03/06/uzbekistan-allocates-47mn-to-prevent-water-shortages/
“Kyrgyzstan tests citrus and berry crops for climate adaptation…
“One initiative involves testing citrus crops in the Batken region. Seedlings delivered from Turkey are undergoing acclimatization to local conditions. Authorities say the results of the program could determine whether citrus production can be developed in the country in the future.”
“Pakistan rejects water weaponisation, terrorism by India.
“Raising the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) issue, Pakistan on Friday strongly rejected water “weaponisation” and “water terrorism” by India, during the UN Security Council briefing on “Energy, Critical Minerals and Security”.”
https://www.thenews.pk/print/1403188-pakistan-rejects-water-weaponisation-terrorism-by-india
“After a dry and brief winter, western Himayalan regions are already sweltering under heatwave conditions this March with day temperatures shooting up to 10 degrees Celsius above normal.
“The India Meteorological Department (IMD) Friday issued a heatwave alert for Himachal Pradesh, west Rajasthan and Gujarat…”
“First 40C [104F] of the year in INDIA today; three stations with 40C. 13 International (and many more States) stations >39C.
“The early March harshest heat wave in history will keep intensifying until mid month.”
[Extreme Tems]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2029898762232156674
“HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN TIBET; hundreds of records are being smashed in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Himalaya including Bhutan, Nepal and China.
“Exceptional record in Tibet with 19.1C [66.4F] at Nyalam, March hottest day ever.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2029639797862715590
“Never ending record heat in THAILAND:
“More records of March highest temperatures: 39.2 [102.6F] Yala, 37.2 Phatthalung, 37.0 Suwannaphum AP. It will just get worse and worse, expect records being smashed the whole months, like in February.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2029148104063369500
“Nilai flash floods: gridlock hits 10km, motorists struggle to reach home [Malaysia]…
“The incident, which occurred at 6.44pm, affected both directions between Putra Mahkota and Bandar Baru Nilai, leaving drivers stranded as floodwaters covered all southbound lanes and the emergency and left lanes northbound.”
“Bali’s top tourism destinations are under extreme weather warnings as the island grapples with heavy rains and flooding that have caused significant disruptions to daily life.
“The weather forecast predicts continued rainfall until March 8, 2026, with the local authorities urging the public and tourists to exercise caution…”
“Hundreds airlifted from remote Northern Territory communities amid major flooding.
“A large-scale evacuation of hundreds of flood-affected Northern Territory residents is under way, as tropical lows bring heavy rain to large parts of the Top End and northern Queensland.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/07/hundreds-airlifted-from-remote-northern-territory-communities-amid-major-flooding
“Record heat in AUSTRALIA:
“Exceptional warm nights continue in the East. New records of March highest Minimums: 23.6 [74.4F] Canterbury, 22.8 Holsworthy, 22.7 Parramatta North, 21.9 Campbelltown… Australia, South America and Southern Africa have been smashing record after record this month.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2030107735241674783
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN OCEANIA:
“Today Minimum 27.8C [82F] Pohnpei MICRONESIA is HOTTEST MARCH NIGHT IN HISTORY. After breaking those of all months of 2024, 2025 and 2026 multiple times each one.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2029747151165923484
“Earth’s tropical oceans may be nearing a critical tipping point…
“Ocean food webs begin with phytoplankton – tiny drifting organisms that convert sunlight into food. When warming limits their growth, fewer nutrients move up the food chain, and fish larvae often feel the effects first.”
https://www.earth.com/news/earths-tropical-oceans-may-be-nearing-a-critical-tipping-point/
“Antarctic krill sustainability label questioned…
““It’s not just about how much is caught, that’s important too, but it’s really where it’s caught,” Curry said. “A lot of the fishing for krill in the Southern Ocean, it all happens essentially in the Antarctic Peninsula, and in the past two years, it’s become increasingly localized.””
https://news.mongabay.com/short-article/2026/03/antarctic-krill-sustainability-label-questioned/
“Record heat in BRAZIL:
“39.5C [103.1F] at Porto Murtinho is new record of March hottest day. Heat has been relentless in the area for several weeks.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2030086266377884098
“Fires in the Brazilian Amazon are increasing, reigniting concerns about the future of the world’s largest forest…
“A large part of the fires recorded in the Amazon do not occur naturally. On the contrary, many are linked to the burning of vegetation to open new areas for livestock or agriculture. This is compounded by the expansion of illegal activities such as mining and illegal logging.”
“Colombia floods revive controversy over hydroelectric dam…
“Large swaths of swampland have been drained as a result of the dam blocking water flows, which has freed up land for economic purposes like agriculture and cattle ranching. “The drying of swamps affected the natural capacity of ecosystems to regulate flooding,” wrote Carolina García Londoño…”
https://thebogotapost.com/colombia-floods-revive-controversy-over-hydroelectric-dam/55638/
“CARIBBEAN RECORD HEAT:
“Record heat is all over North America and Caribbean keeps breaking records every single day. Today again 90F/32.2C at St Thomas AP US VIRGIN ISLANDS HOTTEST MARCH DAY IN HISTORY.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2029741886525821322
“Record heat also in MEXICO:
“While Del Rio TX recorded yesterday its 2nd highest Minimum in March (highest ever before March 31st), beyond the border Piedras Negras didn’t fail: Min 22.0C [71.6F] highest Minimum ever recorded In March. A record which might last just a day or two.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2029633773197996265
“Mexico’s final glacier is reshaping everything downstream…
“What does seem inevitable, according to Ontiveros, is that Jamapa will fragment into two ice bodies, one high and one low. That division could happen at any moment, and “could already be interpreted as the death of the glacier”.”
https://dialogue.earth/en/nature/mexicos-final-glacier-is-reshaping-everything-downstream/
“Earliest 90° day on record in Tampa today!!
“Previous record was mid March. Yeah. It’s too early for this!” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2030064225977356418
“Dire Water Supply Warning Issued as Millions Told to Reduce Showers.
“Residents across the Tampa Bay region in Florida are being urged to immediately cut back on their water use, including shortening showers… Florida’s persistent drought has choked river flows, slashed rainfall totals and left reservoir levels critically low…”
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT US:
“Believe it or not, these are the Highest MINIMUMS temperatures in each State tonight, typical of JUNE: 76 Florida, 75 Texas, 72 Louisiana, Mississippi, 69 Oklahoma, Alabama, 66 Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, 65 South Carolina, 64 Virginia, 63 Missouri, North Carolina, Kentucky.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2029977279120691409
“Dallas weather: Record rainfall reported, high-water rescues and roof collapses during severe storms.
“Residents across North Texas are assessing damage Thursday morning after a powerful line of severe storms swept through the Metroplex Wednesday night, leaving behind collapsed roofs, flooded highways, and record-breaking precipitation.”
https://www.fox4news.com/news/dallas-weather-severe-storm-damage-fire-building-collapse
“NOAA scientists track massive marine heatwave affecting U.S. West Coast waters.
“According to scientists with NOAA, this is only the third time on record that such a large stretch of coastal ocean has remained unusually warm for so long – particularly through the winter months – without being linked to an El Niño event.”
“Snow Drought in the West Signals Urgent Need for Modernizing Water Management.
“Conditions are especially worrisome in Oregon, where snowpack is not only at a record low, but a full 30% lower than the previous record. In my home state of New Mexico, we are also on track for a statewide record low snowpack…”
“Spring is arriving earlier due to climate change [US].
“Winters are getting shorter in 80% of major U.S. cities and spring is beginning earlier, getting warmer and lasting longer. A new study by Climate Central, an independent non-profit climate research group, found spring temperatures in the Southwest have increased an average of 3.4 degrees…”
https://knpr.org/2026-03-06/spring-is-arriving-earlier-due-to-climate-change
“On the Farm, the Hidden Climate Cost of the Broken U.S. Health Care System.
“American farmers are drowning in health insurance costs, while their German counterparts never worry about medical bills. The difference may help determine which country’s small farms are better prepared for a changing climate.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06032026/american-farmers-climate-cost-health-care/
“At least six people have been killed after tornadoes tore through Michigan and Oklahoma and as storms continue to rattle the Central United States.
“The National Weather Service office in Northern Indiana warned of a “large and extremely dangerous tornado” that struck parts of southwestern Michigan Friday, USA TODAY reported.”
“Maine’s catch of lobster declines again as high costs and climate change impact industry.
“Maine’s catch of lobsters declined for the fourth straight year, state fishing regulators said Friday, as the industry continued to grapple with soaring business costs, inflation and a changing ocean… Maine lobstermen landed the smallest harvest in nearly two decades in 2025, signaling a sharp post-boom reality for the state’s iconic fishery.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/maine-portland-inflation-lobsters-new-england-b2933423.html
“Migratory species face rising extinction risk, new UN update warns…
“Almost half of the world’s migratory species populations protected under a major United Nations wildlife treaty are now in decline, according to a new interim report that warns global conservation efforts are struggling to keep pace with mounting environmental pressures.”
“Can green fuels clean up aviation? Scientists say the math doesn’t add up.
“Replacing the world’s jet fuel with clean alternatives would require a third of all electricity generated on Earth today – and even that would not be enough to keep flying at current growth rates, experts warned.”
“Climate or biodiversity? Global study maps out forestation’s dilemma…
““It’s unfortunate that we face multiple global problems all at once, including both climate change and biodiversity loss,” said Mark Urban, a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Connecticut in the U.S., who wasn’t involved in the research. “When we try to fix one, we can make things worse for the other.”“
“Breaking News! Code UFB!!!
“February CO2 data from Mauna Loa was just posted by NOAA, and the 3-year running average for the mean rate of atmospheric CO2 growth hit yet another new record high, now up to 8.15 ppm per 3 years. And that dip in the early 1990’s was Mt. Pinatubo.”
[Prof Eliot Jacobson]
https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2029618782420013484
“Methane is at about record high levels in its latest update for November 2025 (1945.85 ppb).
“November 2024’s global methane abundance was 1940.0 ppb. Note there is a seasonal cycle.” [Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3mge3jazx6k2p
““Super El Niño” for late summer and fall? That’s the latest European seasonal model forecast that came out today. It’s not holding back!
“The average forecast is for +2°C or higher sea surface temp anomalies over the Pacific El Niño region. That’s big! In fact it could put the upcoming El Niño in top 3 status on record.” [Jeff Berardelli]
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2029734894935380193
“A New Generation of Climate Scientists Warm Up to Solar Geoengineering…
“Fed up with a lack of action on climate change, some students are researching dimming the sun despite the pushback from other scientists… “We’re on this speeding train to a cliffside, and we’re proposing slowing down by minute fractions,” he said. “We need to stop it—like now.””
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05032026/young-climate-scientists-solar-geoengineering/
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
The pandemic tracking report from March 5th, lots of interesting “issues” happening in this arena too:
https://tinyurl.com/42fkzay6
Quark’s latest: https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/dia-h
Filmed in 1992, George Carlin covers war in the Persian Gulf:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5xGPU1QWok
Laugh, cry? Meh…
Thank you, Flippr. George Carlin is always worth a listen. The phrase “never a truer word said in jest” could have been made for him.
Good to see Quark keeping an informed eye on our financial house of cards when there is so much else to draw the attention. The Telegraph agrees with him:
“The tsunami of private credit losses threatening a financial crisis. As the US-Iran conflicts steals our attention, the twin bubbles of private credit and AI are close to bursting…
“As it turns out, private credit has been lending heavily to companies whose business models are acutely vulnerable to the advent of AI, particularly software and e-commerce enterprises… Just as worrying, some big private equity firms have invested heavily in insurance. These insurers are then lent on to provide credit to other companies within the portfolio, threatening to multiply the losses in any serious downturn.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/07/tsunami-private-credit-losses-threatening-financial-crisis/
I haven’t seen the following from Art Berman linked anywhere. It was from 3/3/26. Like a lot of you, I’ve followed Art for years. He is right a whole lot more than he is wrong, and when is has been wrong he will change based on new information.
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2028870642720817389
In addition to Deutsch Bank’s predictions I copied the following:
Goldman Sachs on 3/4: 5 days and the crisis will be over.
JP Morgan on 3/5: 3 days until a commodity crisis.
Thanks, Duke. Art is usually very measured in his prognostications so this situation clearly has him spooked.
I recall you and Rain were suggesting Iran had been letting (Russian and) Chinese ships through Hormuz. We are now seeing the first evidence of ships claiming to be Chinese making it through:
“Second Bulk Carrier Claiming to Be Chinese Passes Through Hormuz… The Liberia-flagged Sino Ocean broadcast its destination signal as “CHINA OWNER_ALL CREW” as it traversed the chokepoint.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-07/second-bulk-carrier-claiming-to-be-chinese-passes-through-hormuz
Meanwhile, a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker, the ‘Louise P’ has just been targeted on the basis that it is a US asset.
The second half of this year will be incredibly bad: Trump will be completely demented and unfettered, and doing anything he can, possibly including the nuclear option, to avoid mid-term disaster; food shortages and famines will be widespread; consequential bread riots will be common place; other social unrest from drug gang warfare through colour revolutions to full inter factional civil wars will multiply; billion dollar climate events will be weekly at least; economic collapse at some level from inflation and unemployment rises to market and banking failures will be hitting every country; politicians will not have the faintest idea what to do except spend more money on the military and time at the bar.
Thanks George, agreed, it seems 2026 may be the year it all blows up.
I’m glad I quit drinking, I’d be getting wasted constantly at this stage of the game.
Amen to that! 🚫🍻🍷
Time to get serious about spiritual practices 🧘🙏
George, it is all starting to feel a bit wobbly.
A looming strong, if not super, El Nino on top of accelerating climate change + the fall out from the US/Israel-Iran conflict, all piling pressure on a financial system already stretched to the limit, will make for an interesting 2026/7, for sure.
A strong EL Nino forecast for this year .
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1rne4h7/strong_el_ni%C3%B1o_might_be_coming_this_year/#lightbox
Sorry , forgot .
This is the March forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, one of the leading forecasting institutions. The ensemble forecast has an unusually strong agreement that there will be an El Niño event starting later this year, and many of the potential forecast members even result in a very strong event with over 2C index anomaly. The last time such a strong El Niño occurred, 10 years ago, the world smashed the previous yearly global temperature record and this of course had many severe consequences. El Niños often act as “steps” on the temperature increase ladder, marking record years that never go back down to that of previous years even after the El Niños end.”
“an interesting 2026/7”
Extreme British understatement. 😆
I have trying to follow what is going on with wholesale diesel and jet fuel based on what is happening with the price of heating oil. Heating oil is easy to find, diesel and jet fuel are not.
Looks like it was a stupid comparison. Heating Oil is up 40% for the week. From the article below, jet fuel is up since the Straits of Hormuz 140%.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/component/content/article/jet-fuel-price-up-140-since-last-month-strait-of-hormuz-closure
This was bound to happen . I have written about this earlier . Reason a barrel of 42 gallons of crude only gives 3-4 gallons of ATF ( Airline Turbine Fuel ) . A Boeing 737 consumes 850 gallons per hour = 225 barrels of crude production . The Military will get preference in allocation of this low produced resource .Civilian air travel gets shoved out . Gotta drop those bombs and kill civilians first .😭
https://www.google.com/search?q=fuel+consumption+of+a+boeing+737&rlz=1CAXSDZ_enBE1181BE1181&oq=Fuel+consumption+of+a+B&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBwgFEAAYgAQyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQABiABDIHCAIQABiABDIHCAMQABiABDIHCAQQABiABDIHCAUQABiABDIICAYQABgWGB4yCAgHEAAYFhgeMggICBAAGBYYHjIICAkQABgWGB7SAQkxNTIzMWowajeoAgCwAgA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Even prior to the conflict, I’ve noticed shortages of jet fuel popping up in places like Japan and South Africa for logistical reasons. Cuba is particularly struggling due to the US sanctions/blockade.
“Cuba warns of jet fuel unavailability through early April. Jet fuel availability in Cuba appears unlikely to improve in the near term, with authorities extending notices regarding unavailability of fuel at the nation’s airports.”
https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/cuba-warns-of-jet-fuel-unavailability-through-early-april/166539.article
As Long As Your Hair Looks Good!
While tankers pile up in the Persian Gulf, refineries in Kuwait grind to a halt and oil fields in Iraq are forced to shut down, Europe has discovered a new strategic ally in the fight against climate change.
The hairdresser.
According to a study by British universities, hair salons are “hubs of trust.” People talk there about their lives, their work, their holidays — and so, the reasoning goes, about the climate as well. Small signs now appear on mirrors offering friendly tips: use less shampoo, lower the water temperature, perhaps try an eco-friendly product.
The logic is simple. If millions of Europeans reflect on their hair-washing habits during a haircut, it could make a meaningful contribution to the energy transition. And so, somewhere between the hairdryer and the mirror, a new front quietly emerges. The researchers call them “Mirror Talkers.” Small prompts designed to spark conversation. Because, as the argument goes, real change begins with everyday conversations.
And so the energy transition ends up in a rather surprising place: not in the engine rooms of refineries or on the drilling platforms of the Gulf, but in the neighborhood hair salon.
While outside the world struggles with the logistics of oil, gas and geopolitics, inside someone is pondering whether they might use a little less shampoo.
A civilization trying to solve its energy problem with a pair of scissors, a mirror and a friendly conversation.
As long as your hair looks good — mirror talks and all, inspired by Michael Jackson’s Man in the Mirror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PivWY9wn5ps
Thanks Zip, I feel better about being bald.
My dad was bald and my unscientific observations over my life is that bald men are generally highly intelligent.
In any case, I appreciate Zip’s contribution to our laugh out loud humor section!
My bald dad liked to say that “grass doesn’t grow on a busy street.”, but my mother would point out that “there’s no point in putting a roof over an empty barn.”
😂
My hair dresser got red pilled in about 2009 and the chit chat turned to reactionary politics. Been giving myself the number 1 special ever since.. So I got that going for me; middle aged guy who cuts his own hair.
Zip, nice. 😂
IME, conversation at the hairdresser tends to be fairly breezy and inconsequential. I fear eyes would roll if I started wading in with my heavy duty brand of climate realism.
I’m still a way off bald but getting more intelligent every day, Cassandra. 😜
Passing on to anyone interested, the Honest Sorceror’S latest piece on the war and possibility of sudden collapse…
https://open.substack.com/pub/thehonestsorcerer/p/the-war-in-iran-a-giant-leap-towards?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=hbvfh
Thanks Rain, for this Honest Sorcerer essay. He really pulls a complete systems synthesis together of what is going on.
I like it too. But IMO he always throws in a doomer version of hopium (I’m a paid subscriber of his by the way (and Pan’s Patreon too, of course) ):
“With the operation increasingly going pear shaped, however, they risk losing it all in one fell swoop: turning a hitherto relatively slow imperial decline into a fast paced collapse with little to no chance of revival. And while you can love or hate the current crop of ruling elites, they are just trying their best to prevent the collapse of a US based world order from happening. Not that it could be done—decline is structural. Nor it would mean the end of the world: America and the rest of the globe still has ample resources to continue with a simplified version of this civilization.”
“Simplified version” sounds an awful lot like “degrowth.” I don’t think that’s realistic given the nature of our highly complex interconnected global economy. No reverse gear. The mad and violent scramble for resources has truly begun.
Thanks, Rain. He also references that excellent piece by Craig Tinsdale.
But, Cassandra, I would agree with you… although I’ve argued the toss on degrowth/civilisational triage vs the, in my view, likely reality of cascading supply-chain failures and systemic paralysis so many times I’ve rather lost the will now.
Time will tell. I think it would be sensible to prepare for the latter.
This is one of Balázs Matics best essay’s to date, and the Tinsdale essay is a must read, at the very least the executive summary. Here’s a direct link to it:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-189923832
It’s going to be an epic, warlike, Homeric summer. Webs of white froth, white seabirds trilling over the sludgeplains of low tide. The sun so hot and bright it seems to cast everything else into myriad shades of livid black. Black ships, black blood, and the wine-dark sea.
You are on fine, poetic form, Jupiviv. We’ll need our artistic sensibilities about us to process these coming travails. News articles can only get you so far…
I think if Tampa residents opt for shortening showers, they’re going to have severe plumbing problems. Plus they’ll bake like cookies in the Florida ☀️.
It took me a minute to get that, Rob. 😂
Quark’s latest is short:
I was listening to an interview on the radio with an expert, who was being asked about the effects of the war in the Middle East. He answered as follows:
1. Everyone expects the war to be short-lived and contained, either by a run out of ammunition (missiles,interceptors), or by a rise in gasoline prices that forces Trump to back down.
2. The impact could be half a point on inflation and oil prices reaching a maximum of $120.
I am amazed by the general lack of understanding of what a cut of 15-20 million b/d of oil means (not counting LNG or products related to fertilizers).
For now, Trump is betting on unconditional surrender, so a duration of three or four more weeks is almost inevitable.
If this period is confirmed, oil and gas prices could climb to unprecedented levels, but diesel prices could break all records, given the low inventories in the OECD.
The impact on inflation is always delayed, because in addition to the immediate effects of rising energy prices, there is the indirect influence in the coming months on all types of products that use oil for transportation, making everything more expensive in successive waves.
The result, if we get through those four weeks as a sine qua non, is prices of $200 per barrel and European TTF gas prices above €100/MWh. The economic world has no idea what such a distortion in the oil market means. We’re not talking about one or two million barrels per day missing from the market, but 15-20 million every single day. This gap has the potential to bring down any system, because we’re talking about a pandemic effect, but this time on the supply side, instead of the consumption side. If the WTI price fell into negative territory as a consequence of the inability to sell the oil produced, imagine what will happen if, once inventories are depleted, there continues to be a shortage of 20 million barrels every day.
And we can only pray that the conflict doesn’t worsen (attacks on infrastructure and oil production), because then the damage would be permanent.
Naturally, these benchmark prices would cause a stock market collapse. Given the current bubble, this week’s ridiculous declines would turn into sustained crashes, with drops similar to those of 2008 at first. Central banks will come to the rescue and issue massive quantitative easing to avert a crisis that feeds on itself daily due to widespread panic.
This time, one trillion dollars will not be enough; at least four or five trillion will be needed, which will mean a new monetary expansion of enormous size, and after the initial drops, gold will head towards $10,000 an ounce, showing a distrust in the system that threatens a total breakdown.
And all this assumes the conflict lasts at least four weeks. If it drags on into a full-blown war, the collapse will begin to resemble the 1929 crash, with the added risk of hyperinflation if central banks insist on “protecting” the economy.
The entire fiction we’ve lived with since 2008 is in danger of collapsing. The truth must be told: since then, debt has replaced the engine of growth, and we now only know how to grow while permanently fueled by debt. To make matters worse, we’ve become addicted to the need for ever-increasing injections of debt. The usual dose was no longer enough in 2025, and global debt has grown eight or nine times faster than global GDP growth, demonstrating a very serious dependency.
But to make matters worse, the system is beginning to show signs of collapse, with some near-breakdowns occurring as investments in certain sectors are called in for repayment. The accumulation of debt is becoming unsustainable, and delinquency is going to start being a problem not only in the commercial real estate or automotive sectors, but in all sectors simultaneously, as oil prices impact the decline in consumer sales.
The loss of purchasing power has been constant since 2022, but in this episode of rising prices, it will be dramatic. It’s not imminent (it may take a few months), but the sustained inflation that will spread like wildfire across the global economy will depress consumption because prices will rise far faster than wages.
This is a nightmarish scenario, but the trend of the conflict is toward self-destruction, not containment. A complete turnaround will be needed to avert disaster.
Yes, half a point of inflation, the expert said…
All of this is just speculation, because if they agree to lift the lockdown tomorrow, nothing irreparable will have happened. But the trend is what it is, and for the moment, if they don’t change their strategy, we’re heading full speed toward a precipice that we’ll reach in just three or four weeks.
This week the market has not reflected this potential for destruction, but tomorrow, Monday, things could change radically and begin to show the true consequences of such a major disruption.
Thanks! “Short”…and sweet? 😆😱 I have long believed at some point IC would drop off a (Seneca) cliff but I hadn’t quite imagined a war like this being the trigger. Hard to see an off ramp to this one but I guess we’ll see!
This famous song came to mind regarding you reading this:
https://youtu.be/zqiblXFlZuk
The entire presidential cabinet has Trump Derangement Syndrome.
https://robertlowrey.blogspot.com/2026/01/trump-derangement-syndrome.html
According to this AP article: both sides are attacking desalination plants now.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-us-march-8-2026-f0b20dbffaea9351ae1e54183ffe53ff
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…Bahrain accused Iran of indiscriminately attacking civilian targets and damaging one of its desalination plants, though its electricity and water authority said supplies remained online. The island nation, home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, has been among the countries targeted by Iranian drones and missiles. Attacks have hit hotels, ports and residential towers and killed at least one person.
The desalination plant strike came after Iran said a U.S. airstrike damaged an Iranian desalination plant. Abbas Araghchi, the country’s foreign minister, said the strike on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz had cut into the water supply for 30 villages. He warned that in doing so “the U.S. set this precedent, not Iran.”
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ME: I guess grocery stores and food warehouses will soon be targeted too. Not good, IMO.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-desalination-water-oil-middle-east-12b23f2fa26ed5c4a10f80c4077e61ce
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Oil built the Persian Gulf. Desalinated water keeps it alive. War could threaten both
…More than 90% of the Gulf’s desalinated water comes from just 56 plants, the report stated, and “each of these critical plants is extremely vulnerable to sabotage or military action.”
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ME: Recall again the proto-humans fighting over the last desert mud puddle in the film 2001: A Space Odessey.
ME: From the Motley Fool website: Is Bitcoin going to $0.00?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/is-bitcoin-going-to-0/ar-AA1XLiUq?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=69ad718b04604a498b416fc7020039f7&ei=39
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There is one emerging technology that could potentially crash Bitcoin to $0.
…The evolution of quantum-computing technologies could pose the single-largest threat to Bitcoin. The value of the market-leading cryptocurrency hinges upon the security offered by its cryptography, but new quantum technologies could potentially crack Bitcoin’s blockchain security. If that were to happen, the cryptocurrency’s token price could quickly move to $0 — and dramatic downward reappraisals would almost certainly take place across the broader crypto market.
On the other hand, the disruptive threats posed by quantum-computing technologies aren’t limited to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Quantum tech capable of cracking Bitcoin’s security would almost certainly be able to crack encryptions used across other areas of the financial world. Quantum encryption cracking on that level is likely at least a decade away, but its potentially transformative capabilities carry some big risks for investors.
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ME: Gee, no mention at all at how a potentially faltering and collapsing electrical grid will decimate any efforts at having electronic, internet based financial transaction system. A lot more than just BTC will go to $zero! Quantum tech won’t help either.
Maybe flag semaphore, like what the Rothschilds utilized before & after the Battle of Waterloo [June 1815] to make extreme profits, might help for a little while.
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…In the context of the Rothschilds, their financial backing and network of branches could have supported the construction and maintenance of semaphore towers and other communication infrastructure, enhancing naval coordination for allied powers. This combination of Rothschild finance, semaphore technology, and naval warfare illustrates how private wealth, communication innovation, and military strategy intersected in 19th-century Europe…
The brothers helped coordinate Rothschild activities across the continent, and the family developed a network of agents, shippers and couriers to transport gold across war-torn Europe. The family network was also to provide Nathan Rothschild time and again with political and financial information ahead of his peers, giving him an advantage in the markets and rendering the house of Rothschild still more invaluable to the British government.
In one instance, the family network enabled Nathan to receive in London the news of Wellington’s victory at the Battle of Waterloo a full day ahead of the government’s official messengers.
Rothschild’s first concern on this occasion was not to the potential financial advantage on the market which the knowledge would have given him; he and his courier immediately took the news to the government. That he used the news for financial advantage was a fiction then repeated in later popular accounts, such as that of Morton.
The basis for the Rothschilds’ most famously profitable move was made after the news of British victory had been made public. Nathan Rothschild calculated that the future reduction in government borrowing brought about by the peace would create a bounce in British government bonds after a two-year stabilization, which would finalize the post-war restructuring of the domestic economy.
In what has been described as one of the most audacious moves in financial history, Nathan immediately bought up the government bond market, for what at the time seemed an excessively high price, before waiting two years, then selling the bonds on the crest of a short bounce in the market in 1817 for a 40% profit. Given the sheer power of leverage the Rothschild family had at their disposal, this profit was an enormous sum.
ME: cut and pasted from Wikipedia
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ME: Copilot’s version: The Rothschild–Semaphore Myth
A popular story claims the Rothschilds used the French semaphore network to receive early news of Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo, giving them a financial advantage. Historians consider this a myth, and there is no documented proof that they hacked or controlled the semaphore system. It’s often repeated in conspiracy circles but not supported by credible sources.
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ME: Who knows? There has always been much mystery about the Rothschilds’ history.
This Motley Fool website, and many other investing websites, are NOT doing their readers any favors {especially at this late date} by totally ignoring bad economic effects arising from Trump’s War [ala Craig Tinsdale’s essay] and also the even worse potential Seneca Collapse from all the converging symptoms under the Overshoot umbrella.
My hypothesis is that a lot of these writers are trying to maximize their personal wealth by getting the last investing buck they can from their largely uninformed readership, then be among the first to finally cash out when the economic crash starts to unravel.
Luke Groman, in an interview with Nate Hagens, said that many Wall Street top dogs are fully up to speed on Overshoot & Collapse. His quote was, ” We are still on the dance floor, but keeping a very close eye on the fire exits!”
Wouldn’t you like to have 24-to-48 hours advance notice to cash out ahead of everyone else?
Dont know if I believe the following. Its Britian’s NG Storage Level
https://x.com/TruthFairy131/status/2030593459334361203?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2030593459334361203%7Ctwgr%5E81eefa0821459920a4491b70bac07d1d83168050%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.godlikeproductions.com%2Fforum1%2Fmessage6141812%2Fpg122
Duke,
Questionable for sure, disastrous if true. Yikes!
Guardian and Ai confirm it.
As of early March 2026, the UK has roughly 1.5 to 2 days of natural gas in storage (approximately 6,700-6,999 GWh), down significantly from previous years. While maximum storage capacity is about 12 days, current physical reserves are very low due to diminished capacity and increased reliance on imports during global supply disruptions.
The Guardian
The Guardian
+4
🇮🇷 What percentage of their drinking water do the countries in the region depend on desalination?
– Iran 2%
– Bahrain 60%
– Kuwait 90%
– Saudi Arabia 70%
– UAE 42%
And in addition 80% of Isarael’s drinking water comes from desalination
Both Iran and Israel I checked with Ai, and the numbers are correct.
It was a bad idea to start bombing desalt facilities.
It’s been happening for a while now. Israeli forces have repeatedly targeted desalination plants and water infrastructure in Gaza through airstrikes and ground operations across multiple conflicts, including significant attacks in 2024 and 2025.
Hyper liquid has oil at $115
https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:e41128e82094b:0-crude-oil-price-surges-to-115-on-hyperliquid-as-kuwait-uae-slash-production/
Duke, I am now going to fill my gas tank before they yank the price/gallon up some more. Mason gasoline has already increased 50 cents since Trump’s War started.
I was too late–> now up 20 cents more to $3.20/gallon
Our prices have been jumping too, though its not a major problem for me as I drive so little, a full tank usually lasts me 3 months or more, but guess who has been running on empty & didnt think before now? *duh*
Duke: You are correct on the desalination stats – Most of Iran’s desalination is primarily destined for agriculture in the south.
The thing about Iran’s “water crisis” is that it is such a large country, is that some areas are much worse off than others. Many of the oldest cities are on huge aquifers fed by the mountains, (which is probly why they were settled back in ancient times anyway) but its the agricultural areas worst hit.
The worst impact so far I saw, was blowing up the huge oil storage depot on the outskirts of Tehran… the burning oil has spilled into the wastewater & sewerage systems – the contamination must be horrific, not to mention spreading fire.
Meanwhile my local MSM keeps feeding me brainworms of rah, rah sycophantic adoration of American superheroism, (is it news, or a Marvel movie ad?), the Foreign Minister sending Aussie troops to “protect” GCC countries, and what to do with the Iranian women’s volleyball team, here for the Asian Games.
The girls’ are remaining silent and have not applied for asylum, but plenty of other people want to talk for them, about them and over them. Apparently, they didnt sing their Iranian anthem and were trashed for it in Iranian media, and so there is ‘concern’ for their safety on return to Iran?
On a personal note – one of my dogs was put down at Xmas due to cancer. My remaining large breed but younger dog became so angsty, and clingy – wouldnt let me out of her sight. Would go ballistic if I left her in the car, or “parked”, while I popped into a shop, trying to half kill herself trying to get over the high fences to follow me etc..Finally settled after several weeks, but still anxious if I’m out of her sight line for more than a few minutes.
and feeling low one day, I adopted a pair of 8-week old kitten rescues… was a bit worried being so tiny, barely more than a mouthful for my lumbering great shepherd X.. thought I would have to supervise closely for weeks — but she is so gentle with them & they are so playful with her .. climbing up her tail, snoozing on her back…they make me smile & laugh so much & have really cheered us all up with their antics…
I highly recommend to all — liberal doses of cuteness in these depressing times…
Great story, Rain! My stepdaughter adopted a feral cat last fall and he and her huge dog are getting along famously. I truly don’t know how I would survive without my four-legged companions.
Rain, I’m very sorry to hear about your dog.
I draw a great deal of comfort from my seven-year-old Lab; she lies beside me even as I type. And watching animal rescues on YouTube is my favourite way to decompress.
I always enjoy listening to idiots complain about their governments. If one doesn’t like what their elected officials are doing they need to pull their heads out of the sand or their asses & realize that their associates, friends or family may have voted for the government/elected officials they are bitching about.
The most powerful force in the universe: Boycott those that vote against one’s best interest. Ostracizing friends & family whose vote harms you is good reason to say, goodbye & good riddance. Or one can continue to do nothing & enjoy the damage.
“Can’t fix stupid.” seems to be proven true everyday.
And who should they vote fir, TR?? I thought you were such a smart guy but apparently you haven’t figured out the truth of the saying that if voting made a difference, it would be illegal. It has been well established that we are run by an oligarchy.