50 Comments

1. 

   Flippr on March 3, 2026 at 9:40 am

   Avian influenza kills 7.4M chickens in Pennsylvania: https://www.thepoultrysite.com/news/2026/03/avian-influenza-kills-7-4m-chickens-in-pennsylvania

   I’m sure these “densely packed” farms will have increasing issues as the world rapidly warms. Meh.

   • 

     Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 1:23 pm

     And they will be hubs for viral mutations and transmission back to wild birds, no doubt. It seems that vultures can cause similar problems:

     “Bird flu rampant among black vultures… Black vultures’ indiscriminate scavenging appears to sustain transmission of the virus beyond the typical bird flu season, the study found. This year-round cycle of disease is concerning.

     “Sustained transmission means more opportunities for the virus to mutate. And more opportunities to mutate mean the potential to become more virulent and pose a bigger threat to other species.”

     https://news.uga.edu/bird-flu-rampant-among-black-vultures/

2. 

   George Kaplan on March 3, 2026 at 10:09 am

   I’m not the greatest fan of Magpies having seen them attack a couple of blackbird nests and pecking at flattened hedgehogs (nature red in tooth and claw) but there’s a Magpie’s nest opposite my bedroom window and its interesting to watch them come and go. It looks like it has eggs in it already, which means they are going to hatch about four weeks early – hopefully there will be enough food by then.

   • 

     Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 1:24 pm

     We’re lucky to have some pretty remarkable bird-life up here, George. I’ve seen a pair of hen harriers wheeling about my house these past few days.

3. 

   Duke on March 3, 2026 at 10:30 am

   Rain’s comment at the end of yesterdays thread is really interesting.

   If Iran is now only letting Russian and Chinese ships through the strait it makes sense that in the weeks leading up to “closure” Iran would have navy drills with the Russians and the Chinese. So simple.

   • 

     Flippr on March 3, 2026 at 10:48 am

     I guess it’s impossible to know but I wonder what’s going on with submarines? China and Russia must have a couple in the are, right?

   • 

     Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 1:48 pm

     I don’t think there is much, if any, Russian shipping in that area, Duke. They can just use the Caspian Sea to reach Iran.

     And there will be few purely Chinese ships. The modern reality is complex. Ships may be owned by one nation; operated by another; full of cargo from yet another; staffed by an international crew; and fly a flag of convenience. The situation is even murkier when you are talking about shadow tankers transporting sanctioned oil.

     At least one of the tankers hit was a shadow tanker – Skylight – sanctioned by the US, so no one is confident about making it through the Hormuz Strait, and shipping has almost collapsed as I type.

     Chinese financial markets are not very confident about safe passage either, with Shanghai container freight futures hitting consecutive limit-ups under the expectation of dramatically higher rates. This is the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s position:

     “China calls on all sides to safeguard ships in Strait of Hormuz… Senior gas executives say China is pressuring Iranian officials to avoid action that would disrupt Qatari gas exports or other energy shipments making their way through the Strait of Hormuz.”

     https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/china-calls-on-all-sides-to-safeguard-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz

4. 

   Flippr on March 3, 2026 at 10:35 am

   Quark’s essay today, “The problem is that markets can’t fall. Yes, you heard right.”

   Full text:

   I don’t see fear, I don’t see any apprehension, nobody is taking precautions, nor preparing for future shortages. In the US, the stock markets aren’t even falling, despite the biggest disaster seen in fifty years (it’s true that to have an impact, it needs time). It’s absolutely impossible for free markets not to price in uncertainty. Markets take drastic measures when they don’t know how the future will unfold, and when doubts arise, they plummet. It’s not rational behavior; first you sell, then you see. This time, it hasn’t been like that, and we can all assume that the protectionist team ordered calm so that the stock markets wouldn’t crash on the first day of trading.

   But the Strait of Hormuz remains “closed.” No one dares to cross it, freight insurance premiums have skyrocketed, and several ships have been attacked.

   The importance of keeping this artery open is such that we could witness a complete collapse within a single month. But that’s not the worst of it. If the oil and gas facilities are attacked and suffer considerable damage, it won’t matter if they reopen the strait; the danger will remain as long as the conflict continues.

   The problem is that markets can’t fall. Yes, you heard right.

   They’ve designed a phantom system where confidence is the only thing keeping the global economy afloat. Not only do we lack the strength to grow, but we need an unprecedented monetary expansion just to remain stable. Debts have long been unpayable, but now we’re entering another phase where interest payments may also fall into that category, and we require a continuous injection of funds to keep the illusion of growth alive and bolster a confidence that is no longer so high. Gold is hitting record highs almost every day, and it’s not the dollar price that matters, but rather the continuous devaluation of fiat currencies, whose dilution through excessive debt issuance is putting the entire system on the ropes.

   If the stock markets crash, confidence will plummet and we’ll tumble off a cliff. And if the solution to stop this decline is another round of monetary injections via central banks, it will simultaneously trigger unprecedented global inflation. It’s a lose-lose situation, one that culminates when the chosen path comes to an abrupt end.

   What’s going to happen is systemic. In other words, it doesn’t matter what the trigger is; the system was already mortally wounded, and it could be one event or another that pushed it over the edge.

   The US administration prepared an ambitious plan to seize control of global oil. With the success in Venezuela, Iran seemed a piece of cake, and after decapitating its leadership, a change in the executive branch would readily accept US control of oil. This action would place the Middle East in US hands, and this supremacy would allow it to survive the following decade when shale oil production began to decline sharply. And not only that, but it would also allow the US to manipulate world politics while restoring the dollar to its former glory.

   The rest of the world would depend on the will of the United States. We would all be vassals of the world power, and China, without oil and gas, would have to obey, once again recognizing American hegemony.

   Four days have passed since the attacks began, and the expected resignation of the leaders who haven’t died hasn’t happened. The first setbacks are beginning, the first casualties are being felt, and it’s now crucial to end the conflict immediately. The first week can be managed in any way, but if the war drags on, the damage will be irreparable.

   The world order has already collapsed, and it is now impossible to condemn Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, or to denounce China if it decides to annex Taiwan tomorrow. Only vestiges remain of an international law that has been erased from the map to make way for the law of the strongest.

   We need to fully understand the new situation.

   Europe finds itself alone, voiceless and dependent on foreign resources for almost everything. The world has divided between those who possess the resources and those who aspire to acquire them by force. Trade will only be possible between friendly blocs, and supply chains have just been shattered, along with the complexity of the system. We need all five continents to supply finished goods, and if this network breaks down, we lose the ability to maintain our status as advanced powers. Everything is simplified, but when a civilization reaches its zenith, the disruption of trade leads to a Seneca-like plunge in economic growth. Not a slowdown, but an automatic contraction that sends us to the abyss, because suddenly nothing works.

   Once the trigger has taken effect, there’s no going back. The return to autarky isn’t premeditated; it’s a consequence of the collapse of supply chains, but no nation is truly self-sufficient. The implications of this breakdown are incalculable because feedback loops make it impossible to know how the process will end.

   The beginning of the age of warriors was no coincidence. In an environment characterized by strong economic growth and abundant resources, trade flourishes, debt decreases, and the quality of life steadily improves without causing instability. When we reach our limits, we use excessive debt to mask the impossibility of natural growth. And when resources are depleted, wars begin. This is inherent to human nature; if Trump didn’t exist, someone else would be responsible, because no one wants to accept degrowth if they can seize other people’s resources by force (yes, let’s not only think of military wars; trade sanctions and the imposition of tariffs without negotiation are other forms of the same thing).

   Well, I’ve already explained what led us to this irreversible situation. We’re like the coyote running through the void, and therefore, we start looking down to realize that the ground is much deeper than we imagined.

   The creation of numerous bubbles following decades of sustained monetary expansion has placed us in a deplorable situation. Systemic collapse is tantamount to the apocalypse, because no one anticipates what may come next. They may try again to halt the decline with further monetary expansion, but this will only result in global hyperinflation, lethal to the fiat system. And since this system is designed to grow indefinitely, its exhaustion is a blow of such magnitude that it will trigger a revolution for the worse.

   It could have been this year, or perhaps a few years later, but impatience has worked its “miracle.” We will not emerge unscathed, whatever the outcome of the intervention in Iran. But remember, it was merely the spark that ignited the bomb.

   Now we need to find out how many attempts to delay the inevitable we can withstand before the final fall.

   Just an opinion.

   • 

     Cassandra on March 3, 2026 at 11:43 am

     WOW!!! Thank you, flippr, for posting the full translation. This makes total sense to me. And as ever it is amazing that other than the small doomer corner of humanity no one sees what’s coming. A friend’s daughter takes her kid to look at colleges. A client hires his first sales person, so excited about the future growth of his business. Another friend texts me about what a beautiful day it is, no mention that these temperatures are crazy for early March.

     Thank you again for posting this reality check.

     • 

       Flippr on March 3, 2026 at 1:25 pm

       >>> Another friend texts me about what a beautiful day it is…

       Sometimes I envy them Cassandra.

       I keep meaning to ask you as I think you’re somewhere in the Carolinas, are you hearing anything about measles?

       https://www.reuters.com/world/south-carolina-seeks-non-cdc-reinforcements-contain-growing-measles-outbreak-2026-02-24/

   • 

     Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 2:05 pm

     Thanks, Flippr. “Just an opinion” perhaps but one that survives close scrutiny.

     Gail Tverberg’s latest is timely:

     “A New Explanation for Tariffs and Bombings… The underlying problems are energy-related… Because of energy-related shortages that are already being encountered, national economies are beginning to act like the players in a game of musical chairs, with one too few chairs.

     “Leaders have taken to building up armies, cutting off exports of critical minerals, imposing tariffs, and bombing other countries, even though these actions might not make sense to peace-loving citizens.”

     https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/03/02/a-new-explanation-for-tariffs-and-bombings/

   • 

     rob on March 3, 2026 at 6:20 pm

     I know. I sQuark too much about language, but “intervention in Iran”? Seriously? When the Furor himself refers to his barbaric murder spree as Epic Fury, “intervention” doesn’t quite capture the mayhem that has been stirred up. Not to mention the fact that when one intervenes, you have an explicit reason for doing so; yet so far, no one has bothered to say just what that reason, besides GW’s term, Shock & Awe, ie, terrorization and targeted assassination, might be.

     • 

       Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 6:34 pm

       Rob, I would agree that “intervention” is a misleadingly neutral term here.

       Remember, though, that Quark writes in Spanish and is then Google-translated. I don’t get the sense that he is intending to downplay events.

5. 

   Bob Shaw on March 3, 2026 at 11:25 am

   From above: “Deadly cassava virus threatens food security across Africa.”

   I have never eaten cassava, but my guess is that the North American equivalent crop would be the potato. Hard to imagine our food plates not having the delightful baked potato for dinner, french fries for the kids, or the crispy hash browns to go with the breakfast eggs. Creamy mashed potatoes and potato soup are welcome comfort foods too.
   ————–
   The disease causes necrosis in the roots of infected plants, often leading to total crop loss. Because the damage is sometimes only visible at harvest, farmers may not realize the scale of infection until it is too late.
   ————–
   To realize your essential food is garbage at the last moment must be especially discouraging. I sadly picture an entire village crying and depressed–> no basic food and no income from a cassava cash crop.

   In the olden days of the American West: when a mine suddenly shut down, the company store shut down too. People had no choice but to go somewhere else. A ghost town in a polluted landscape was the result. No food and no income–> saddle up the horse & buggy, then git going!

   Will a soon-to-be abandoned megaplex of Salt Lake City, Utah with blowing toxic dust be the modern-day equivalent ghost town? Just about everyone likes a dusting of salt on their potatoes. Or is it too late for them to culturally shift to planting the supposedly ‘resilient’ cassava?

   Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

   • 

     Cassandra on March 3, 2026 at 11:51 am

     Thanks, Bob. Helpful reflections, as always. I suspect the Africans would not feel “discouraged” or “depressed” but more like total freak out meltdown mode because starvation would loom.

     Imagine the migration of an entire continent? Aside from the fact that most of them would die before getting anywhere with food, where would they go? I am trying to picture 1.5 billion people moving to Europe (746 million). I know this is not a realistic thing; just a “interesting” thought experiment.

   • 

     Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 2:11 pm

     Google tells me that cassava is, like the potato, native to South America, and needs properly peeling and cooking, as it contains cyanide-like compounds when raw.

     You learn something new every day. 😎

     • 

       Bob Shaw on March 3, 2026 at 3:56 pm

       Hey Pan, I love tapioca pudding, so I have had cassava before. If a person can’t find sufficient firewood then you probably don’t want to eat cassava. …something new every day.

       • 

         Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 4:43 pm

         Bob, I had completely forgotten that tapioca pudding is made of cassava.

         I find the jelly-like consistency of the “pearls” a little off-putting, personally, and am happier on semolina. Not that I’ve eaten either for years.

         • 

           Mad Hatter on March 4, 2026 at 5:04 am

           Putting a spoonful of semolina In with your pastry mix makes the pastry crispy.

   • 

     Shane Mulligan on March 3, 2026 at 4:35 pm

     The Irish potato famine is still felt in the blood of descendants. This comes across as terrifying news.

     • 

       Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 4:57 pm

       Shane, the potato famine hit Islay as well. It did start a population crash via exodus to the US and Canada, especially, that was never reversed, but was not a mass-mortality event, as in Ireland.

       “Epigenetics and the generational effects of the Great Hunger…

       “Most of us ‘of Ireland’ know the Famine did something. We know it changed something deeply; we know we still live with and within those changes, that we live in the wake of a destruction of wholeness (the wholeness of a person) but we don’t know what the change was exactly.”

       https://belindavigors.substack.com/p/part-one-epigenetics-and-the-generational

6. 

   jupiviv on March 3, 2026 at 11:34 am

   So like I said last thread, Iran either folds quickly and gets a bad deal, or punches back hard enough to get one on somewhat favourable terms. And holy crap are they punching hard right now. If this continues, Iran might be asking for sanctions withdrawal as a MINIMUM position by the end of this mess. The decision to allow China and Russia but not India -bound freight says it all.

   India reduces gas supply to industries after Qatar outage.

   America does have one major card it hasn’t played yet – targeting Iran’s water infrastructure. Still, remote warfare is expensive and non-refundable and that is all this instawar can be. The masses stand to gain nothing from their elites renegotiating the geopolitical hierarchy of capitalism. Involving them directly would be “disastrous” for “everyone” (= the wealth-holding classes), as it was in WW1. Although if things spin out of control enough, that might be unavoidable.

   For the moment though it’s still instawar, regardless of rhetorical cosplay. One other thing to consider – if decision makers (the real ones) have any inkling about the intersection of climate change and net energy decline, that may have influenced their decision to cash their military industry check now, while the going is still relatively good and expended assets can be at least partially replenished.

   • 

     Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 2:18 pm

     “…targeting Iran’s water infrastructure.”

     Jupiviv, I am guessing that the Trump administration prefers to hit military and governmental targets, as it wants to curry favour with the broader populace in the hope that it will rise up against the regime. Unfortunately, missiles don’t always go where you want them to:

     https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/mar/03/minab-school-bombing-how-the-worst-mass-casualty-event-of-the-iran-war-unfolded-a-visual-guide

   • 

     Rain on March 4, 2026 at 4:57 am

     “…targeting Iran’s water infrastructure”…

     Just finished watching Prof Jiang’s latest lecture which highlights this very point jupiviv.

     https://youtu.be/c7Z2g00u22k?si=ywKM3ggtRPOvqrib

     Though I can’t see Iran folding very quickly, it is in their best interest to drag it out as long as possible, like they say such underdogs don’t have to defeat them, just “go the distance” & survive intact.
     and Iran may well have recognised the weakness & have planned accordingly.

     Just me, but I don’t see the US or Israel ever giving a *pfftt* about the locals thoughts or feelings. Their historical record doesn’t support that at all. Not slightest bit fussed by mass genocide, using mass starvation as a weapon of war, bombing pipelines etc… taking out water sources is par for the course. Israel immediately invaded/occupied the mountain water sources in Syria after its govt fell and replaced with friendly ISIS/Al Qaeda spinoff.

     Assassinating a religious leader didn’t make the USA or Israel any friends either… iranian people seem more united & socially cohesive against US/Israel than ever before Even igniting mini revolutions in places like Bahrain.. a couple of the Gulf monarch families have fled into exile, or asked the Saudis to send in their tanks & security forces, because the peasants in some places like Bahrain have taken the opportunity to “rise up” against their pro-US royal dictators

7. 

   Bob Shaw on March 3, 2026 at 2:15 pm

   Article from “The Economist”, courtesy of archive.vn

   https://archive.vn/l3tY8
   ———————

   China’s ice-cold calculus over Iran
   In the Middle East, it is a political weakling but an economic force
   —————-
   ME: I believe China plays the strategic long game very, very well. Let the West exhaust itself and go broke–> China will ultimately scoop up the resources it needs for pennies on the dollar.

   • 

     Bob Shaw on March 3, 2026 at 4:26 pm

     More articles on possible Chinese long range strategies?
     ——————–
     Beijing Doesn’t Think Like Washington—and the Iran Conflict Shows Why
     Arguing that Chinese policy is hung on alliances—with imputations of obligation—misses the point.

     https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/03/iran-china-us-intervention-strategy
     —————–
     What China’s response to the US attack on Iran says about its foreign policy

     https://apnews.com/article/china-position-us-iran-attack-1042fa7295500f90ecd6285d552da349
     —————————
     ME: China is the home of Sun Tzu: It is more important to out-think your enemy, than to outfight him.

8. 

   Duke on March 3, 2026 at 2:21 pm

   Cruise did a Mission Impossible movie in 2023 called Deadly Reckoning. I was watching yesterday and at around 25 minutes the head of IMF (not the monetary) says:

   “The next war is going to be a world war for our dwindling energy, drinkable water and breathable air”

   Israel has 4-5 desalt plants that suppply up to 80% of their potable water. Lets hope Israel doesn’t start bombing reservoirs in Iran.

   • 

     Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 5:07 pm

     Let’s hope that Rubicon isn’t crossed, Duke. Tit for tat strikes on desalination plants would be bad news for all concerned.

     “The immediate fear for Gulf leaders centres on their most vulnerable infrastructure. Marks identified what she called the “real nightmare scenario”: Strikes on power grids, water desalination plants and energy infrastructure.

     ““Without air conditioning and water desalination, the scorching hot and bone-dry Gulf countries are essentially uninhabitable,” she said.”

     https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/3/2/after-irans-salvo-hit-their-skylines-will-the-gulf-states-enter-the-war

     • 

       Bob Shaw on March 3, 2026 at 5:27 pm

       Pan,

       Martyrs ascending skyward clutching their empty water jugs towards heavenly thirst fulfilment forever and ever?

9. 

   zip on March 3, 2026 at 3:25 pm

   The Iranian Joker Card

   In every war, all parties hold “joker cards.” Iran has one too, and it lies just within reach: Basra, Iraq’s oil hub. It is the main artery of Iraqi oil exports—and therefore one of the most critical energy nodes in the world. The vast majority of Iraq’s production comes from the southern fields around Basra, such as Rumaila, West Qurna, and Zubair. Every day, several million barrels of crude oil flow from here through terminals in the Persian Gulf to global markets.

   Whoever disrupts Basra does not merely hit Iraq, but an entire energy stream that reverberates through Asia, Europe, and the global economy. The large fields around Basra are old. Production is no longer simply extracted from the ground; it is technically sustained through water injection, compressors, electric pumps, and digital monitoring systems. That means oil production depends on a stable energy supply.

   And that is where the “joker card” in Tehran’s hand appears. A significant portion of Iraqi electricity—especially in the south, including Basra—is directly or indirectly dependent on Iran.

   Iraq has gas-fired power plants, but insufficient domestic gas processing infrastructure. For years, it has imported Iranian natural gas to keep its power stations running. Without these imports, up to a third of Iraq’s electricity generation could fall away during peak periods.

   Iranian gas is therefore the real backbone of the Iraqi system. Without stable electricity, urban infrastructure falters—and so does oil production itself. Pumps, water-injection facilities, and refining processes all run on electricity. In the summer, when temperatures in southern Iraq approach fifty degrees Celsius and demand for air conditioning surges, power shortages quickly translate into social unrest. The region is also predominantly Shia, adding a further political dimension.

   The consequences are easy to imagine. If the gas valve is turned down, a chain reaction follows: blackouts, production disruptions, and unrest. Iran’s joker card is not a missile and not a blockade. It is the gas valve as an energy lever.

   It really is that simple.

   • 

     Ravi Uppal on March 3, 2026 at 3:39 pm

     Zip did it .🤣
     https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-opens-second-front-day-4-trumps-iran-war-irgc-refuses-back-down

   • 

     Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 5:15 pm

     Zip, my sense is that Iran/Iraq relations are pretty friendly, if complex, these days, so I would be surprised to see Iran striking anything but US military assets/bases in Iraq.

     I may be missing something, though.

10. 

    Ravi Uppal on March 3, 2026 at 3:31 pm

    Thanks to Patrick Raymond from France .

    “They are cute, the US and Israeli leaders (especially the prime minister who fled , sorry, continuing the fight elsewhere) hoping that what didn’t work will finally work, with an almost empty arsenal.

    Ali Khamenei was a pious man, and a pious man, especially at 87 years old, has little fear of dying. For him, death meant being at God’s right hand, at least, if that image is correct for Shiites, at a venerable age. He didn’t even try to hide, even though he knew he was a target. He had accepted his fate and his destiny. Perhaps he even found a purpose in his death.

    In any case, the “decapitation” strikes had been anticipated, and in Iran, redundancy and resilience of structures had been planned, by replacing “moderates” with younger wolves with sharper teeth.

    Even more serious for Western rhetoric is the hundred or so schoolgirls killed by a strike, of course described as “surgical”, no doubt because it caused a lot of bloodshed.

    Although the fate of the Ayatollah is presented here as having led to scenes of joy, I have many doubts about the veracity of these, and in any case, the hundred or so young girls killed will create hatred.

    The Iranian response was massive, and the Western media, pitifully, practically said that it was all over, that the market economy, pardon plutocracy, er, democracy, had won.

    They even dug out an old relic from its mothballs, the Shah’s son. He’s just as pathetic as those Cubans who’ve been in exile since 1960 and think they know Cuba.

    In short, Iran struck everywhere, even British bases in Cyprus, and we were told it wasn’t a problem, all the US bases had been evacuated… To where???

    In fact, at present they must be in ruins, and the Strait of Hormuz blocked except for Russian and Chinese oil tankers.

    As for those who say that the Iranian navy is no match, it should not be forgotten that the Gulf is a bathtub and that the maneuvering capacity is very limited and that hypersonic missiles travel very fast.

    US and Israeli air defenses are nonexistent, below zero, completely ineffective, and antediluvian. The infamous Patriot missiles were designed in the early 1970s and “modernized” by adding a sticker claiming they were also missile-proof, even though Moshe Arens, in early 1991, estimated their effectiveness at exactly 0%, contrary to George H.W. Bush’s claim of 98.7%. Perhaps they’ve added another sticker since then?

    Some say Russia is “weakened” by the fact that its ally is now unable to help it. I have a different interpretation: US ammunition, already very low, will run out even faster. Zelensky, already in deep trouble, will sink even further.

    There’s also a fog of war surrounding US losses. Given the precision of Iranian missiles, they must be heavy, very heavy, if all previous precautions have been abandoned. Fixed US bases must be irreparably destroyed. Some speak of 560 US dead and wounded, which others deny and call disinformation (it’s amusing to see the disinformation spreaders complain), but this toll is plausible if Iran continues its attacks.

    Conversely, the admitted 4 deaths and 4 serious injuries, is that out of modesty?

    US morale is low, as are the US troops, and sabotage is rampant on the aircraft carriers. Apparently, the toilets are blocked with brooms and t-shirts…

    In France, we can talk about alternative parties. The National Rally (RN) is intelligent on domestic policy and cautious on foreign policy, avoiding being attacked or simply aligning itself with the establishment? Time will tell. The left is foolish on domestic policy with its support for immigration, while the population is overwhelmingly against it, and more astute in its reservations regarding foreign policy. Although Mélenchon, by calling Khamenei a tyrant, is simply following the usual media rhetoric. That’s hardly a sign of intelligence.

    Israel, which boasts of having subdued Lebanon, has resumed its attacks. If Lebanon were truly on its knees, what would be the point of starting again? Mobilizing 100,000 soldiers? What for?

    Regarding the Arab regimes, if they are hostile to Iran, what about the Sunni public? Do they like Americans, Israelis, and Jews? I have my doubts about the answer…

    It’s unlikely that Russia and China will abandon Iran. Worse still, with the US navy preoccupied in the Gulf, China can have a free hand in the South China Sea. There’s probably no availability for Taiwan. And besides, a few missiles fired from the Caspian Fleet might go unnoticed…

    Trump is talking about a four-week war, probably because Scott Ritter’s estimated ammunition reserves last for five weeks. In any case, after that, the US will be defenseless for a decade and will have to fight with baseball bats.

    Trump talks about a “powerful new wave,” but it’s business as usual. They’re going indiscriminately, hitting as hard as they can. After that, there’ll be nothing left. In 1975, the US was capable of using 10,000 tons of World War II bombs to halt the North Vietnamese advance at Xuan Loc. Now, they don’t even have that much.

    • 

      Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 5:21 pm

      Ravi, this is horribly partisan and loaded with shaky conjecture/inaccuracies. I understand that feelings run high at times like these but I’m not interested in invective or propagandising in favour of any state or bloc.

11. 

    Ravi Uppal on March 3, 2026 at 3:45 pm

    My last comment on yesterday’s post and now the follow up .
    “Over the weekend, multiple members of the International Group of P&I Clubs — which collectively insure approximately 90% of the world’s ocean-going tonnage — issued formal 72-hour notices of cancellation for certain war risk covers tied to Iran and adjacent Gulf waters. In a statement, the Group said it is “monitoring closely the developments over the weekend and the military operations currently taking place in the Persian Gulf,” adding that stakeholders would be notified immediately of any changes to mutual cover. ”
    https://gcaptain.com/gulf-war-risk-insurance-pulled-as-reinsurers-exit/

    • 

      Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 5:25 pm

      Thank you, Ravi. From the article:

      “…the message from the commercial reinsurance market is clear: the Gulf is no longer priced as a heightened-risk trading zone — it is being treated as an active war theater.”

12. 

    Mike B on March 3, 2026 at 4:24 pm

    Read & weep: https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for

    I think things are bad, but it has nothing to do with the f*ing Bible.

    • 

      Bob Shaw on March 3, 2026 at 4:35 pm

      Mike B, thanks for this link. I can easily see how this leads to confusion and morale loss among the troops.

      • 

        Survivalist on March 4, 2026 at 2:17 am

        The GI Rights Hotline (877-447-4487)

    • 

      Panopticon on March 3, 2026 at 5:29 pm

      Mike, Trump is nearly 80 and has been talking about getting to heaven recently. Perhaps this conflict has a religious component for him, too.

      https://www.unilad.com/news/us-news/donald-trump-heaven-comments-528722-20260220

    • 

      Cassandra on March 3, 2026 at 10:51 pm

      Finally had a moment to read this, Mike. 😱😱😱

13. 

    Duke on March 3, 2026 at 4:30 pm

    For context Gaza is half the geographical size of the city of Tehran and Israel had its entire armed forces next door.

    VLCC’s before the war started were 50-80K per day. Now leasing a VLCC from the Middle East to China is 423K per day. I don’t know if this considers China state owned enterprises

    • 

      Cassandra on March 3, 2026 at 6:07 pm

      I had to look that up. “A VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) is a type of oil tanker designed to transport large quantities of crude oil, typically between 200,000 and 320,000 deadweight tons (DWT). These tankers are among the largest ships in the world and are essential for the global oil transportation industry.”

      Just a friendly request of everyone to write out acronyms when you first use them in every comment. Thanks!

14. 

    Bob Shaw on March 3, 2026 at 5:13 pm

    ME: I am certainly no military expert, but common sense tells me that a purely offensive dumb drone, bomb, or missile [all three having limited electronics], will be much cheaper and much faster to manufacture than their respective defensive counterparts.

    An accurate defensive rocket requires bleeding edge electronics, superfast reaction time & speed, and a big radar base to sense incoming targets. All pricey tech.

    Is Offensive Quantity > Defensive Quality? Is a two-to-one ratio sufficient to overwhelm the Defensive side? Three-to-one? Recall Ravi’s link yesterday with Prof Theodore Postol.

    Can Iran make offensive rockets faster than we can import & resupply defending rockets?

15. 

    Duke on March 3, 2026 at 6:35 pm

    Art Berman weighs in and its ugly:

    https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2028870642720817389?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2028870642720817389%7Ctwgr%5E02984c9a76f9484f576474266eb7b3e1759fbf74%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fun-denial.com%2F2026%2F02%2F26%2Fby-paqnation-aka-chris-living-in-detention%2F

    • 

      Mike B on March 3, 2026 at 8:55 pm

      Holy sh*t. And Berman is a numbers-crunching geologist, not Jeremiah.

    • 

      Bob Shaw on March 4, 2026 at 1:00 am

      Hey Duke,

      Ah, crap! –> Is there a Force Majeure clause in a typical house sales contract? I hope not, I just need the planet to hold together until my closing March 30. Fingers crossed! C’mon, c’mon… C’mon!

16. 

    Survivalist on March 4, 2026 at 4:33 am

    Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, established the principle that “Preserving the system is the highest duty” (or “Preserving the Islamic Republic is the highest obligation”). This doctrine, which has the force of a fatwa in Shia political thought, prioritizes the survival of the clerical regime above ALL other concerns.

    This guiding rule means the survival of the Islamic Republic takes precedence over the implementation of certain Islamic laws or the immediate demands of the people.

    Khomeini articulated this concept, particularly in the context of the Iran-Iraq war, indicating that maintaining the Islamic state was more vital than other considerations, including individual, social, or personal desires.

    This is used to justify necessary actions to protect the regime, such as suspending certain Islamic rules if they threaten the state, or employing extreme violence to suppress opposition.

    Iran is seeking deterrence through ballistic missile program and is going to behave like a cornered badger. They will not surrender.

17. 

    me-need-more-brain on March 4, 2026 at 12:15 pm

    Maybe we should start to change the definition of “glacial pace”, those mofos sure are becoming fast.

    • 

      Panopticon on March 4, 2026 at 1:42 pm

      They sure are, me-need-more-brain. 😆