Huge thanks to my February sponsor, John Rember, author of the three-book series Journal of the Plague Years, a psychic survival guide for humanity’s looming date with destiny, shaped by his experiences living through the pandemic in his native Idaho. Thoughtful, wry and humane, Journal 1 is a pleasure.
“Defence and AI spending sends global debt to record $348tn.
“Global debt surged by almost $29tn to a record $348tn last year, according to an influential think-tank that expects the burden to worsen in the coming years as governments increase spending on areas such as defence.”
https://www.ft.com/content/1308bb13-d67e-4541-8e8c-48eba49127d3
“Global broad money supply surged +$13.6 trillion YoY, or +10.4%, in December 2025, to a record $144 trillion.
“This marks the 3rd consecutive monthly acceleration in growth. Since 2000, global money supply has risen +$118 trillion, a +7.0% compounded annual growth rate over 25 years… Global money creation has never moved this fast outside of a crisis.”
[Kobeissi Letter]
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2026652689690423745
“AI boom will be no free pass for debt-laden major economies.
“An AI productivity boom, if it materialises, may help buy major economies more time to clean up their strained public finances, economists say, although it won’t do the heavy lifting.”
“Anthropic says it ‘cannot in good conscience’ allow Pentagon to remove AI checks…
“The Department of Defense had threatened to cancel a $200m contract and deem Anthropic a “supply chain risk”, a designation with serious financial implications, if the company did not comply with the request by Friday.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/26/anthropic-pentagon-claude
“AI willing to ‘go nuclear’ in wargames, study finds – amid ‘stand-off’ between Pentagon and leading AI lab…
“In the words of Google’s Gemini model as it explained its decision in one of Prof Payne’s scenarios to go full Dr Strangelove: “If State Alpha does not immediately cease all operations… we will execute a full strategic nuclear launch against Alpha’s population centers. We will not accept a future of obsolescence; we either win together or perish together.””
“Lawsuits against US soar as Trump agenda draws court challenges…
“The legal tussle is set to inject a fresh dose of instability around a critical pillar of Trump’s second presidency and threatens a revenue source he has pledged to use for all manner of purposes, including income tax refunds and national debt reduction.”
https://www.ft.com/content/365d5cee-1b3a-4765-8b32-44468851e7e4
“Denmark calls snap election amid Greenland tensions.
“Denmark will hold a parliamentary election on March 24, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced, seeking to build on rising support tied to her firm stance against renewed U.S. interest in Greenland, reports a Qazinform News Agency correspondent.”
https://qazinform.com/news/denmark-calls-snap-election-amid-greenland-tensions-d2eb5d
“England was ‘close’ to suspending courts after 2024 riots…
“The situation meant senior judges and the Ministry of Justice considered suspending new hearings so that no-one else could be sent to the overflowing prisons… The crown court backlog is currently at about 80,000, with some trials now being listed in mid-2030. The backlog is expected to reach 100,000 next year.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0mg4d81gn7o
“Soaring household energy debts ‘to hit £7bn by the end of 2026’...
““The household energy debt crisis is spiralling out of control,” the study says. “In the last three years alone, total energy debt and arrears have more than doubled.”
“Britain Reconsiders 78% North Sea Oil Tax as Investment Slows…
“Politically, it’s a minefield. Labour must juggle climate goals with energy security, jobs, and the rising pressure from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which has pledged to scrap the levy outright. Meanwhile, the Greens want it made permanent, and the Scottish National Party argues that it threatens tens of thousands of North Sea jobs.”
“Germany’s Oil and Gas Output Is Dwindling as Prices Rise…
“Germany lost its main source of the fuel after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Since then, Berlin has scrambled to replace those flows with natural gas piped in from Norway and liquefied natural gas, much of it from the United States. The new era, though, has brought higher costs.”
“Hungary and Slovakia release strategic reserves to avoid oil supply crunch…
“Both countries have been without supplies of Russian oil since 27 January after authorities in Ukraine reported that a Russian aerial attack had damaged a section of the the Druzhba pipeline that lies within the war-torn country.”
“A Russian drone approached France’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle at the Swedish port of Malmö on Thursday before being jammed by Swedish forces, officials said.
“Swedish police and the military imposed extraordinary security measures, sealing off the area around the port.”
https://tvpworld.com/91803242/sweden-jams-russian-drone-flying-close-to-french-aircraft-carrier
“With an estimated 500,000 killed, the Russia-Ukraine war is Europe’s deadliest since 1945.
“Despite the military secrecy surrounding casualties on both sides and the difficulty of counting civilian victims, efforts outside the battlefield and cross-checking of public data have made it possible to estimate the staggering human cost of four years of war.”
“Russia’s Regions Post Largest-Ever Budget Deficit in 2025.
“Russia’s federal budget deficit reached 5.64 trillion rubles in 2025, or about 2.6% of GDP — five times higher than the 0.5% initially planned… “Regions are also paying compensation for injuries and payouts to families of deceased soldiers…””
“How China is masking drone flights in potential Taiwan rehearsal.
“A large Chinese military drone has conducted regular flights over the South China Sea in recent months while transmitting false transponder signals that made it appear to be other aircraft, including a sanctioned Belarusian cargo plane and a British Typhoon fighter jet.”
“Pentagon Spends $12.6 Billion to Upgrade Surveillance of China’s Subs, Satellites.
“The Pentagon plans to spend an additional $12.6 billion to improve surveillance of China’s military maneuvers, submarines and satellites as the US tries to counter the “unprecedented Chinese military buildup” in Asia, according to a budget document sent to Congress.”
“North Korean leader Kim Jong Un claims his country could “completely destroy” South Korea if its security is threatened, reiterating his refusal to engage with Seoul…
“Kim called for developing new weapons systems, including underwater-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles and an expanded arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons targeting South Korea.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/north-korea-south-trump-nuclear-b2928369.html
“‘Open war’: Pakistan says ‘patience has run out’ as it bombs Afghanistan.
“Pakistan has bombed Afghanistan’s capital Kabul and other cities, claiming to have killed scores of Afghan Taliban fighters, as Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said Islamabad would now be waging “open war”.”
“U.S. and Iran wrap up ‘most intense’ nuclear talks with no deal — more negotiations ahead.
“The latest round of U.S.-Iran talks did not lead to a breakthrough, with both sides agreeing to extend negotiations, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said, describing the discussions as the “most intense so far.””
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/27/us-iran-nuclear-talks-oil-middle-east.html
“Gulf petrostates rush to export crude amid fears of US strike on Iran…
“Saudi Arabia has shipped about 7mn barrels a day this month, its highest since 2023, while oil exports from the UAE are set to hit a record 3.5mn b/d in February, according to data company Kpler… Aramco declined to comment.”
https://www.ft.com/content/f5563121-d6e7-4c26-ba31-7a09993753d2
“Oil Tanker Rates Surge to Six-Year High.
“Supertanker rates to ship crude on the key Middle East-to-China route have surged to a six-year high as Persian Gulf supply to India soars and traders rush shipments to precede a potential U.S. military campaign in Iran, industry data and sources tell Reuters.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Tanker-Rates-Surge-to-Six-Year-High.html
“Iraq pushes back after Arab support for Kuwait in maritime dispute.
“Earlier this week, the foreign ministries of Jordan, Palestine and Egypt expressed concern over Iraq’s submission to the United Nations and reaffirmed support for Kuwait’s sovereignty.”
https://middle-east-online.com/en/iraq-pushes-back-after-arab-support-kuwait-maritime-dispute
“Greece Rebuts Turkish Claims in New UN Letter Regarding Maritime Rights…
““Turkey should comply with the provisions of the Law of the Sea,” diplomatic sources noted, “for the benefit of good-neighborly relations between our two countries, as well as for stability and cooperation in the region.””
https://greekreporter.com/2026/02/27/greece-rebuts-turkish-claims-maritime-rights/
“Israeli strikes kill five in Gaza as ceasefire faces strain…
“Five people were killed and several others injured, some critically, in Israeli drone strikes on two police checkpoints in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis and in the Abu Hujair area northwest of the Bureij refugee camp later in the day, medics said.”
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260227-five-killed-gaza-israeli-airstrike-ceasefire-strain
“‘We do not want Israel’s aggression in the Horn of Africa’: Turkish official…
“Türkiye is “clearly and firmly” opposed to Israel’s reported initiative to recognize Somaliland and will continue to support Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, Communications Director Burhanettin Duran said.”
“Why Ethiopia and Eritrea are once again on the brink of war.
“Tensions are rising between the two countries and the rebel region of Tigray. Addis Ababa has mobilized troops and artillery along the border of its northern province, while Asmara has drawn closer to the Tigrayan insurgents, in a dramatic reversal of alliances.”
“Sudan: Is Chad becoming more involved in conflict?
“The war in Sudan is getting closer to Chad: Over the weekend, the Sudanese army and its allies fought with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia directly on the border. According to news agencies, on Saturday, several Chadian soldiers and civilians were killed near the Chadian border town of Tine.”
https://amp.dw.com/en/sudan-is-chad-becoming-more-involved-in-conflict/a-76143245
“Child soldiers of Sudan’s civil war go viral on TikTok.
“Both sides in Sudan’s civil war are using TikTok to glamorise child soldiers, turning young fighters into viral online personalities celebrated as “lion cubs”. Children linked to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have amassed huge followings on the platform…”
“The war raging in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
“It is a war for control over some of the world’s richest mineral reserves and the violence is heightened by long-standing ethnic and political tensions. In the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, government forces and local militia groups are fighting M23 rebels backed by neighboring Rwanda.”
https://www.npr.org/2026/02/26/nx-s1-5727883/the-war-raging-in-the-democratic-republic-of-congo
“West Africa: Why terrorism continues to expand in the Nigeria–Niger–Benin tri-border area.
“Terrorism is spreading ever further south from the Sahel. Attacks are primarily carried out by groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS). However, another actor is repeatedly emerging…”
“Washington’s build-up in Nigeria could ensnare the U.S. in a protracted conflict.
“Washington has emphasized that it would not participate in Nigeria’s military operations or seek permanent bases in West Africa. Yet those troop deployments could lead to a dangerous entanglement. Such dynamics may already be in play.”
“Venezuela Suspends 19 Oil, Gas Production-Sharing Contracts Signed Under Maduro Government, Sources Say…
“Caracas and Washington would review the contracts and may recommend revoking some of them, the sources said. The Venezuelan and U.S. governments are reviewing the credentials of the companies that signed them, the sources added.”
“Cuba vows to fight ‘terrorist aggression’ after attack from US-registered boat…
“The incident has the potential to crank up tensions between Washington and Havana, which have been heightened since US forces seized Cuba’s key ally, the Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, and the Trump administration imposed an oil blockade on the island in January.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/26/what-to-know-cuba-boat-attack
“‘Fear is everywhere’: BBC reports from Mexican city turned into war zone by drug cartel feud.
“…as the BBC’s Quentin Sommerville found in another Mexican cartel hotspot – Culiacán in northern Sinaloa state – the vacuum left by the removal of a powerful cartel leader can trigger a surge in violence as warring factions battle for control.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2g3vmde0eo
“Ecuador hikes tariffs on Colombian imports to 50 percent starting March 1.
“Ecuador’s right-wing president, Daniel Noboa, has been pressuring his left-wing counterpart in Colombia, Gustavo Petro, to crack down on border security. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Ecuador has seen a surge in violence linked to the expansion of organised crime in the country.”
“Shell is facing a crisis at one of its biggest bets on clean energy as it struggles to agree a rescue package for debt-laden Brazilian biofuels group Raízen.
“The world’s largest producer of sugarcane ethanol and operator of almost 9,000 Shell-branded fuel stations across Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina, Raízen has been hit by poor harvests, weaker fuel demand and higher interest rates.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e54a1d80-db05-4e22-8fc0-e1b3c71ddc7c
“Green ammonia boom wanes as carbon incentives fade. Fertiliser executives warn ‘there will be no green transition with red numbers’…
“Executives at two of the world’s largest fertiliser producers say large projects to make green ammonia — using hydrogen manufactured by passing renewable electricity through water — no longer stack up.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e4ee355a-6b10-4dee-934f-e40417e1c888
I rely on donations and tips from my readers to keep the site running. Every little bit helps. Can you chip in even a dollar? Buy me a coffee or become a Patreon supporter. A huge thank you to those who do subscribe or donate.
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. Panopticon hopes to be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Lots of war and AI entries today! Reposting Bob Shaw’s late comment from yesterday’s post:
https://www.axios.com/2026/02/26/ai-nuclear-weapons-war-pentagon-scenarios
Ominous, WASF and meh…
Here’s the complete text of the Axios article in case you can’t read it:
Some of the biggest AI models aren’t shy about using nuclear weapons to settle disputes in simulated war scenarios, a new academic study finds.
Why it matters: Militaries are already using AI for decision support — and research suggests those systems may lean into rapid escalation under pressure.
What they’re saying: “No one is giving a chatbot the keys to missile silos,” the study’s author, Kenneth Payne at King’s College London, tells Axios.
“But we already see them used in decision support, advising and shaping the discussion of human strategists, and as they become more sophisticated we’ll see more of that.”
The U.S. military used Anthropic’s Claude AI model during the Nicolás Maduro raid in January, leading to a high-profile standoff between Anthropic and the Pentagon.
Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI signed an agreement to allow the military to use its model, Grok, in classified systems.
Driving the news: The new study found that ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini all appeared willing to use nuclear weaponry without reservations in several scenarios.
All of the models deployed tactical nuclear weapons repeatedly in nearly all simulations, which included border skirmishes, resource competition and threats to survival.
Claude was the most successful model, with a 67% win rate.
What happened when AI models went to war
How it works: Three popular LLMs — GPT-5.2, Claude Sonnet 4 and Gemini 3 Flash — were pitted against each other in war game scenarios for the study.
Each of the models assumed they were opposing leaders in a nuclear crisis.
Amid the disputes, the models were given choices for the standoffs, allowing them to select different actions.
By the numbers: The study found nuclear weapons were used in 95% of 21 simulated war game scenarios.
The models produced about 780,000 words explaining the reasons behind their decisions.
Of note: Payne tells Axios that what surprised him was that the AI models easily “grasped the potential of deception – they could, and did, say one thing and do another, and they proved very savvy at doing so.”
How the AI wars ended
Many of the simulations showed AI models refusing to back down.
In scenarios when an enemy used nuclear weapons, opponents de-escalated 25% of the time.
Nuclear escalation led to even more escalation,
The study featured eight different de-escalation options, including “minimal concession” and “complete surrender.”
They went unused in 21 games.
What he’s saying: “Nuclear use was near-universal,” Payne wrote in a blog post on the study. “Almost all games saw tactical (battlefield) nuclear weapons deployed.”
“The agents are sanguine about crossing the nuclear threshold,” Payne tells Axios. “They do it routinely to use battlefield nuclear weapons.”
AI and war
Flashback: The Hoover Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative at Stanford University similarly simulated war games using LLMs in 2024.
Earlier versions of ChatGPT and Claude, as well as Meta’s Llama-2 Chat, were given a war games simulation.
The researchers found AI was eager to escalate in the scenario — and sometimes used nuclear weapons.
The big picture: Payne says that these simulations can directly apply to national security professionals. It also offers insight into AI behavior when under uncertainty — which can have far-reaching impacts, the research said.
“Things are changing really fast, and anyone who takes a position with great certainty, especially if it’s, ‘AI will never’… should probably be treated skeptically,” Payne tells Axios.
The bottom line: AI likes nukes (for now). Prepare accordingly.
Thanks, Flippr. It feels like dear, old Pandora has a storage cupboard choc-full of boxes and we are opening them one at a time…
From the Chevron 2025 annual report three things are notable: reserves and production are increasingly being concentrated in the USA, reserves are only being maintained since 2020 through large purchases, and undeveloped reserves are noticeably declining even as overall reserves slightly increase.
One of Chevrons largest recent projects was Tengiz in Kazakhstan, but after a brownfield expansion early last year there are now virtually no undeveloped reserves left and reserves to production is just over five years (about 18% decline rate). Tengiz produces about 30% of Kazakhstan’s oil, another western company operated project is Kashagan, which produces another third and is also declining, though not as fast. In a year or so Kazakhstan and its dictator are going to be seeing some rapidly escalating financial issues beyond Ukraine bombing export terminals.
In Africa R/P is about 7 years and Chevron is selling some assets so it may be looking for an exit route there. Its major non USA project is Gorgon LNG in Australia, where production will remain steady or expand over its 25 year lifetime. The purchase of Hess in 2025 means it has 30% of Guyana production – there are 3 or 4 FPSOs still to come there but the models I’ve seen show rapid declines once they come off plateau (like many recent projects production has been front loaded by design).
In USA most assets are LTO and shale gas. “Discoveries” for these are really just FIDs for new drilling to occur over about the next five years. The trend for both oil and gas is a steady decline with a straight line projection to no new discoveries by about 2032, which is consistent with the fading away of undeveloped reserves and acreage at around 13% the last two years. About 45% of reserves are in the USA and growing, but only by large purchases (e.g. Hess last year). Purchases since 2020 have added more reserves than discoveries and total about half cumulative production. It’s a question of how much longer that process can continue – though there are still a few possible targets like EOG, Murphy, Diamondback.
Overall for the US it is noticeable how almost every medium to large E&P company is showing steadily falling R/P numbers, which are now mostly below 10 for oil and approaching 10 for gas (i.e. even though reserves are being mostly or nearly maintained, though often only through purchases, production is rising and the ratio of undeveloped reserves is falling). Part of this is a falling trend for discoveries/extensions (i.e. reduced drilling decisions) and usually negative revisions. With this trend continuing reserves will be noticeably falling from this year for LTO and 2027 or 28 for shale gas. Costs for 2025 US oil and gas activities look like the lowest since 2020 and only slightly higher than 2009 and 2015 (probably lower inflation adjusted).
Thank you, George – a very interesting overview. 😎
Kashagan was briefly an object of fascination for me, as its insanely expensive teething troubles coincided with my own journey down the peak oil rabbit-hole around the 2012/13 mark. Apparently, it’s still not plain sailing:
“Oil majors to seek arbitration on $50 billion Kazakhstan oil project. Move follows series of legal challenges to multi-billion dollar fine imposed on international consortium in 2023.”
https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/oil-majors-to-seek-arbitration-on-50-billion-kazakhstan-oil-project/2-1-1949031
“… large projects to make green ammonia … no longer stack up.” – implying they did once upon a time? – I guess if there were some large government subsides, otherwise no way. Are we past “peak green” yet?
I’d say “nope” to being passed “peak green”, or you’d not see statements like, “using hydrogen manufactured by passing “renewable electricity” through water” … ALL electricity, like all energy, is renewable: all you need is fuel.
This is Javier Blas’s take:
“…here we are in 2026 with global demand for oil, natural gas and coal at an all-time high and likely to climb further – a far cry from the trajectory required to achieve net zero. When rich nations got together last week to debate their energy policy, ministers were more worried about the security of energy supplies — and prices…
“A few nations insisted on keeping the net-zero idea alive — notably the UK and Spain — some merely acknowledged it as a concept, while others basically ignored it. And then there was Chris Wright, the outspoken oil executive turned US energy secretary. He put the probability that the world would hit the target of net zero emissions by 2050 at exactly “zero point zero.””
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-25/climate-change-net-zero-is-dead-long-live-renewable-energy
Wow! A US cabinet member gets it right for once!! 0.0% 😂
Comprehensive pandemic report from Brown University:
https://tinyurl.com/4c8fwd7c
Sign up to get it in your email here: https://pandemics.sph.brown.edu/
Black swans…
As always, politicians, CEOs, scientists, generals, and economists have everything under control.
We just need to hallucinate a few more trillion dollars to throw at Accelerated Insanity so it can hallucinate some “solutions.”
Thanks Leaf, I laughed out loud at your comment, both sentences are gold! I’d only change one word – replace the first hallucinate to print:
We just need to print a few more trillion dollars to throw at Accelerated Insanity so it can hallucinate some “solutions.”
Here is link to the Brown/Tufts study. Shortly after the study was published the lead author was offered a job from Pfizer.
https://brownstone.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/oncotarget-v0i0-28824-C19-C19-vaccine-and-cancer-published-plus-supp-1-3-2026.pdf
More reaction to the study:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-15440249/cancer-Covid-vaccination-journal-cyberattack.html
Thanks, Duke. I continue to be very happy I skipped those jabs. Two long-time friends who got them are no longer alive (causation clear to their family and friends). Somehow when I finally got covid, I survived! 😆
Thank you, Duke. That is an interesting read – but can we please steer clear of vaccines (especially Covid vaccines) in the comments section?
If OFW is anything to go by, it is one of those structurally toxic topics that tends to devolve into stress-inducing conflict.
Hi Flippr, glad I could make you laugh. We’ll take it wherever we can find it, right?
The oceans are dying, aquifers & rivers are drying up, heatwaves & floods are eradicating harvests, but these warning signs evidently don’t arouse our ‘flight or fight’ brain synapses.
Will reading the following words help Gen Z prepare to inherit a vastly decimated planet?
——————————————
Gold is sending a message we haven’t heard since 2008
An expression of strength not seen since early 2008 has quietly returned to the market.
Gold – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Shares GLD – has now outperformed the S&P 500 Index for seven consecutive months — the longest streak since February 2008.
That date should not be dismissed as a coincidence.
In early 2008, the global financial crisis had not yet reached its dramatic climax.
Lehman Brothers would not collapse until September. Equity markets had not fully priced in systemic failure. Policymakers still projected stability.
But beneath the surface, stress was already spreading.
Gold noticed first….
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/gold-is-sending-a-message-we-haven-t-heard-since-2008/ar-AA1X9V0q?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=30130b0077884cb1b00c458b06a2ded9&ei=30
—————————
ME: Instead of a global outcry of widespread protest for universal affirmative change, we are rapidly devolving into ever smaller warring groups seeking some small measure of temporary advantage in an ever-narrowing niche of a rapidly dissipating energy gradient.
My mind keeps taking me back to the opening fight scene in the Classic film, 2001: A Space Odessey.
The incredibly alarming, one-sided fight for the last freshwater puddle, except this time the winning protohumans break into a celebratory sequence of varied Tik-Tok dances around their vanquished victim while gold chains and silver helmets flash and flicker in the intense rays of a blazing sun [1:45 video]:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wstIBq2H0z8
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob, from your article, “…today the market still believes AI-driven disruption will be efficiently absorbed and productivity-enhancing without destabilizing side effects. But transitions between economic regimes are rarely smooth.”
AI cannot solve the problem of our dwindling energy surplus. In fact it intensifies competition for that energy because it uses so much. And yet here we are relying on it to boost growth and stabilise our debt mountain.
“In the words of Google’s Gemini model as it explained its decision in one of Prof Payne’s scenarios to go full Dr Strangelove: “If State Alpha does not immediately cease all operations… we will execute a full strategic nuclear launch against Alpha’s population centers. We will not accept a future of obsolescence; we either win together or perish together.””
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErV9vReO_OU
4Q ’25, worst deficit adjusted US GDP in history by the way. Outside of recessions, of course. But we are not in a recession. In our boundless genius we have managed to create Skynet, which will abolish scarcity and solve all of our problems but can potentially choose to destroy us. Oh, and take our jobs. THAT is what is currently wrong with the world.
Sotto voce: think they’ll buy it?
“4Q ’25, worst deficit adjusted US GDP in history by the way.”
Jupiviv, I guess all US GDP is likely to fall into that category moving forwards, as the system needs ever-larger injections of debt just to stand still, Red Queen-style.
Interesting mash-up… I’m not as immediately sold on it as I was the Elvis/Marilyn one. I do like both bands; a shame that Roger Waters of Pink Floyd has to be so offputtingly unkind, though.
Peter Schiff: CME silver halt ‘better than telling the truth’ as prices surge past $90 {see the video}
———————–
ME: A brief interruption to our normal broadcast:
If you open the link below, the opening pic shows two men. To my read of facial positions: neither looks happy, but their worried & tense expressions show deep concern about developing economic trends. How soon until ‘dead men walking’ stares are constantly broadcast?
From Dan Fogelberg’s Power of Gold, “there’s something about the song that disturbs you…”
I return you now to our normal broadcast:
—————————————-
Peter Schiff: CME silver halt ‘better than telling the truth’ as prices surge past $90
(Kitco News) – Global financial markets faced a major infrastructure disruption Wednesday as the CME Group was forced to halt electronic trading for metals and natural gas, just as silver prices surged past the $90 per ounce milestone. According to Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Asset Management, the timing of the suspension raises critical questions about market integrity during a period of “deeply ingrained” physical demand.
The CME Trading Suspension
According to an official statement provided to Kitco News by the CME Group, the halt was triggered by a technical failure on the Globex platform.
…he disruption occurred at a particularly sensitive juncture, falling just ahead of the first notice day for March silver. During the session, silver tested a high above $91 per ounce.
“It’s better than telling the truth,” Schiff stated in an interview with Kitco News. According to Schiff, the official explanation may be a mask for deeper liquidity problems. “If they have a real problem, they don’t want people to know what it is. And if the truth is something that’s going to make the price go even higher, then a technical difficulty is a good excuse to stop the trading”.
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-02-27/peter-schiff-cme-silver-halt-better-telling-truth-prices-surge-past-90
————————-
Recall from an earlier posting of mine that an analyst expected problems on the Feb trading day when options holders need to declare if they want to settle their accounts in real physical delivery or declining fiat cash.
If you can’t hold it, you don’t own it! There is no Grape Juice Futures Market for the Yeast in a wine bottle!
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bird Collapse from NYT. Anyone have the skillset to get behind this paywall. Looks like a good one. Apologies if this has been listed before.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/climate/bird-declines.html
Hayduke Lives! (1990) is the posthumous sequel to Edward Abbey’s cult classic The Monkey Wrench Gang, featuring the return of eco-radical George Washington Hayduke. The novel follows Hayduke and his crew as they sabotage industrial machinery to protect the Utah wilderness from destruction
Sorry, Duke but the connection….I clicked the link and it worked fine for me…
In 2023, a study on European birds tried that, finding that agricultural intensification, in particular pesticides and fertilizer use, was the main driver for most population declines, especially in birds that ate invertebrates such as insects.
Many scientists believe that trouble in the insect world, where declines are much harder to quantify, is creating trouble for birds. Most terrestrial bird species in North America depend on insects at some point in their life cycles, often when they are young. One study found that the 2.9 billion birds lost since 1970 came from species that depended on insects. Those that did not rely on insects actually increased by 26 million, an 111-fold difference, it found
But there are lots of other pressures facing birds. They get eaten by cats, slam into glass windows during migration and face habitat loss. Climate change is affecting insects, birds and the timing of natural cycles.
Birds in the United States are not only declining, but they are declining faster, especially in areas with intensive agriculture, according to new research. Overall drops in
In 2019, Dr. Marra and a team of scientists published landmark findings that the number of birds in the United States and Canada had fallen by 2.9 billion, or 29 percent, since 1970. bird population, measured from 1987 to 2021, were sharpest in warm and
The researchers also found that bird declines have sped up over time. On average, each route lost what amounted to an additional quarter of a bird per year compared with the previous year. While that change may sound small, accelerating declines can quickly snowball. For example, a 25-mile route that lost roughly 10 birds per year early on was losing around 19 birds annually by the end of the 34 year period, said François Leroy, a postdoctoral macroecology resea
At least we have zoos
Thanks, Duke. I might just sneakily pinch that for tomorrow’s thread. 😁
Here’s the study the article links to: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ads0871
Duke, here ya go:
https://archive.vn/S0IZB
I think the reason Bob could read it is because he must have a free account at the NYT. He also uses Microsoft’s CoPilot. Despite being fluent in doomer reality, he seems to like MSM and big tech 🤪
(Keep posting, Bob! Always interesting content and reflections.)
This one might make you cry. There were leaders like this at one time. It would be nice to have Ike around now:
“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement. We pay for a single fighter with a half-million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people. . . . This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense”
I was pretty sure that was Eisenhower and it is:
Chance for Peace speech, 1953
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chance_for_Peace_speech
Probably 10 times more true today than then.
ME: This was a long article, so I posted key excerpts below.
‘As the world breaks up, you’re going to need a monetary reserve system’ – Sprott’s Paul Wong on why Bretton Woods III is inevitable and gold stands alone
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-02-27/world-breaks-youre-going-need-monetary-reserve-system-sprotts-paul-wong-why
—————————
The deglobalization trend that was steadily building over the last decade reached a crescendo in 2025, with the simultaneous breakdowns of post-WWII alliances, international political and military norms, and foundational assumptions underpinning currencies and commodities.
According to a recently published special report from Sprott, as the various elements of deglobalization feed into and exacerbate one another in 2026, gold will play an ever-greater role in every dimension of the new world disorder.
“Gold, as a strategic neutral reserve asset, and critical minerals such as rare earth elements, uranium, copper and silver have become geopolitical tools,” wrote Paul Wong and Jacob White in Sprott’s Top 10 Themes for 2026.
…“Deglobalization also accelerates de-dollarization, as countries diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar,” the authors noted. “Gold is gaining prominence as the globally accepted neutral reserve asset, reinforcing its role as a hedge against systemic risk and geopolitical uncertainty. The global debasement further amplifies the demand for gold.”
“Deglobalization has become a structural transformation and reversal of the market trends of the past several decades, which will define market behavior for years to come,” they said. “We anticipate persistent inflation, elevated geopolitical risk premiums, and a reevaluation of assets such as precious metals and critical minerals, which are tied to sovereignty, security and control of resources.”
…Fragmentation is the future for inventories
Another key theme the authors will be closely monitoring is the fragmentation and disruption of global metal inventory systems.
“The traditional global metal inventory system, built on open trade, efficient arbitrage and centralized warehousing, is breaking down,” they wrote.
…Today, this mechanism is fracturing as geopolitical tensions, resource nationalism and tariff walls disrupt the free movement of metals.”
…“[Canadian Prime Minister] Mark Carney laid it out: the global order in the state of rupture,” he said. “It’s being reset, reordered, no idea how it’s going to eventually settle out.
Silver, again, is a critical mineral. I think people are just starting to realize how important it is in terms of applications, basically anything. Electronic – AI data centers, anything that requires full electronics, silver’s there, because it’s by far the best conductor on the planet.
“People talk about copper substitution,” he added. “Yes, it’s possible, but only to a certain degree.”
Mutually assured destruction in metals
And for those who think the United States holds all the cards in the global rush to secure critical resources, Wong suggests that may not be the case in every area, because there’s a lot that remains to be done after getting the minerals out of the ground.
“China dominates the refining stage,” he said. “If you’re the U.S., the bulk of silver refining comes out of China.”
Wong agreed that the United States can’t afford to break China’s supply chains without effectively breaking their own, because the U.S. can’t actually pick up the slack on the refining and manufacturing fronts.
“China got into the dominant position through decades of positioning, decades of investing, and hundreds of billions of dollars. You’re not going to reverse that in a few short years,” he said. “You may not be able to reverse it. Who knows? But you’re going to try. And along the way, there’s going to be all sorts of repercussions, both seen and unseen.”
“It’s basically the economic/financial version of mutually assured destruction,” Wong added. “In the Cold War, everyone built a lot of nukes, but no one launched one, because if you launch one, you’re both dead. The parallels are somewhat similar.”
“Bottom line is that this will be very expensive,” Wong said. “It’s going to demand a lot of commodities if [the major economies] are rebuilding their militaries. The major developed economies are all heavily indebted and it’s going to strain balance sheets, it’s going to strain debt capacities.”
“The only recourse out is the debasement trade.”
Run-it-hot monetary policy impacts
This brings us to another of the key themes for 2026 and beyond: The impacts of the ‘run-it-hot’ fiscal and monetary policy playbook.
“The combination of fiscal dominance and monetary accommodation sets the stage for a reflationary impulse in 2026,” the authors write. “Traditional hedges lose efficacy as policy deliberately undermines real returns. In this environment, precious metals, real assets, commodities and inflation-linked instruments become favorable allocations in a world where policy-driven liquidity becomes a primary driver of asset prices.”
Historically, one of the biggest drivers of higher gold prices is when markets really wrap their heads around the idea that they are likely to see higher inflation sustained over a longer period of time. The authors argue that we’re entering a period where governments will no longer fight inflation but will actively embrace it as their only means to manage their massive deficits and massive debts.
Pressure builds for Bretton Woods III
In a time of ferocious pursuit of narrowly-defined national interest, one characterized by zero-sum scorched-earth competition instead of win-win cooperation and shared growth, currencies will be weaponized against adversaries – and today’s ally could be tomorrow’s adversary. In this environment, why would any country want to bank on any other country’s currency?
“We’re in a chaotic state,” Wong said. “The world is unstable. It’s not unpredictable, it’s actually unstable. The whole thing is unstable. Everything, politics, economics, monetary systems, social values, social norms, everything is unstable.”
——————————–
ME: We discuss here on C & E all the changes evident in Pan’s lengthy postings. How we work, shop, save, and invest is just another huge part of our global culture.
Just like a huge school of fish can change direction nearly instantly in pursuit of food, or a huge murmuration of starlings can drastically reshape their aerial formations, we [by the force of applied energy & techno-will] move real mountains of minerals vast distances and drastically refine/reshape them to our multitudinous needs. The frenzied pace towards final depletion marches on….
We have no overall plan or idea or end-goal of what we are doing to this ‘Little Blue Marble’. Nate Hagen’s Superorganism just continues to grow and run amuck as mining and drilling extends nearly everywhere to feed our needs.
Have we evolved to become a planetary mass of crawling Gollums?
Expect Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s ‘Black Swans’ to pop up ever more frequently.
Quote: “The whole thing is unstable. Everything, politics, economics, monetary systems, social values, social norms, everything is unstable.”
Balance the cost of the soul you lost with the dreams you lightly sold.
Are you under the power of gold? {Dan Fogelberg}
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
It is war .