Huge thanks to my February sponsor, John Rember, author of the three-book series Journal of the Plague Years, a psychic survival guide for humanity’s looming date with destiny, shaped by his experiences living through the pandemic in his native Idaho. Thoughtful, wry and humane, Journal 1 is a pleasure.
With apologies, I must head over to the mainland tomorrow. Kali is going to be very kind and cover for me in absentia. I should be back Wednesday or Thursday at the latest.
“Death, taxes and turmoil: is the age of the safe haven over?
“The plate tectonics of the global financial system are moving and in the event of a crisis we may experience a new landscape unfolding… This year… financial stability risks look set to rear their head and will do so in a climate where a safe haven no longer exists.”
https://www.thetimes.com/us/business-us/article/safe-haven-assets-gerard-lyons-comment-q5mwbg8r7
“Big Tech’s ‘breathtaking’ $660bn spending spree reignites AI bubble fears.
“Big Tech stocks sold off heavily after unveiling plans to spend $660bn this year on AI, as investors fret that the “breathtaking” capital expenditures are outpacing the earnings potential of the new technology.”
https://www.ft.com/content/0e7f6374-3fd5-46ce-a538-e4b0b8b6e6cd
“The steep selloff in software stocks is spreading to the debt market.
“Pressured by growing worries about the disruptive potential of new AI coding tools, shares of large software companies such as Salesforce and ServiceNow have been sliding for months. But now the prices of software-company bonds and loans are also dropping.”
“Asian markets extend global retreat as tech worries build.
“Asian equities sank again Friday as a tech rout that battered Wall Street for the third day in a row showed no sign of letting up amid growing unease about the hundreds of billions splashed out on artificial intelligence.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-markets-extend-global-retreat-024334995.html
“Bitcoin Crashes To Around $60,000 As Historic Free Fall Worsens—Price Is Down Over 50% In 4 Months.
“Bitcoin fell below the $70,000 mark for the first time in over a year around 6:30 a.m. EST, but losses worsened throughout the day. The losses pushed bitcoin below the $65,000 figure shortly after 3 p.m. EST, and it was trading as low as around $60,256 at 7:21 p.m.”
“Bitcoin’s 45% Plunge Is A Warning Of A Bigger Liquidity Problem…
“With the reverse repurchase facility practically exhausted since the end of August, liquidity will need to be financed from other sources. There is no longer excess cash circulating in the overnight funding market.”
“Silver Whipsaws Again as Thin Liquidity Fuels Wild Price Swings.
“Silver lurched between losses and gains, dropping nearly 10% before snapping back, as a lack of liquidity led to wild swings in a market struggling to find a floor… Spot silver rose as much as 6.2% in Asian trading on Friday, having earlier tumbled toward $64 an ounce. That followed a 20% decline in the previous session.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/silver-whipsaws-again-thin-liquidity-030642370.html
“Morning Bid: Fed under pressure as layoffs mount.
“It’s Jobs Friday and there is no jobs report. With non-farm payrolls delayed by a U.S. government shutdown – again – and a selloff on Wall Street going global, markets are anxious.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2026-02-06/
“One path to U.S. fiscal disaster is most alarming — and most likely.
“The national debt is nearing $39 trillion. Dire consequences are coming… Upwardly spiraling debt could provoke a financial crisis. Investors anxious about the U.S. fiscal outlook would demand sharply higher interest rates to entice them to purchase Treasurys. This would ignite a self-reinforcing debt spiral.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/02/04/congress-national-debt-trillions-crises/
“Trump’s trade war creating economic ‘mirage’ with GDP forecasts, freight market disconnected: Shipping expert…
“While headline GDP growth may look strong based on tech sector spending, actual shipment volumes for goods are relatively weak and the maritime market is oversupplied with vessels.”
“UK borrowing costs rise as concerns about Starmer’s future mount.
“British borrowing costs rose on Thursday as concerns grew over whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer could survive the fallout from his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as U.S. ambassador despite knowing about his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.”
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-borrowing-costs-rise-concerns-092913960.html
“Pubs and restaurants hit with most sustained job losses since financial crisis.
“Staff numbers in Britain’s services sector, which includes the hospitality industry, have fallen every month since October 2024, which coincided with Rachel Reeves unveiling plans to increase employers’ National Insurance Contributions and the National Minimum Wage.”
“Volvo Slump Fuels Fears for Europe’s Auto Industry…
“Shares in Volvo Cars plunged as much as 25% after fourth-quarter earnings missed expectations… EU industry chief Stephane Sejourne recently issued a warning, saying Europe’s auto industry is “in mortal danger.””
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Volvo-Slump-Fuels-Fears-for-Europes-Auto-Industry.html
“Musk’s Starlink Blocks Russian Troops’ Internet Access, at Ukraine’s Request…
““Looks like the steps we took to stop the unauthorized use of Starlink by Russia have worked,” Mr. Musk wrote on X on Feb. 1. “Let us know if more needs to be done.””
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/world/europe/starlink-blocks-russian-troops-access.html
“Trump rejects call from Russia’s Putin to extend cap on nuclear deployments.
“United States President Donald Trump has shot down an offer from Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin proposing a voluntary extension of recently-expired limits on the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons.”
“Credit Bank of Moscow Posts Rare Loss as Bad Loans Surge.
“A bank closely linked to oil major Rosneft has become the first among Russia’s top 10 lenders by assets to post a net loss, highlighting mounting strains in the country’s banking sector.”
“Russian Oil Discounts Widen for China as Indian Purchases Falter.
“As India is tentatively pulling back from buying Russian oil after the U.S. trade deal, Russia’s crude is being offered in China at widening discounts to attract Chinese refiners, trade sources have told Reuters.”
“Chinese provinces set lower growth targets for 2026.
“Most Chinese provinces are targeting lower economic growth this year, in what many economists believe is a signal Beijing will set a historically low range of 4.5-5 per cent for its official goal in 2026.”
https://www.ft.com/content/7ccb65e3-b00e-4ac6-8bce-a5037c2c7d71
“China’s Easy Money Floods Metals Markets as Real Economy Falters.
“Chinese speculators have driven a rally in global metals prices due to ample cash and fewer investment options. The People’s Bank of China is being forced to do more to prop up sluggish growth, with the M2 measure of money supply expanding faster than nominal gross domestic product.”
“BYD’s $60 Billion Wipeout Points to Deeper Turmoil for China EVs.
“A relentless selloff in BYD Co. shares is laying bare investor anxiety over the profit outlook for China’s electric-vehicle sector, as cooling demand at home and surging raw material costs trigger a brutal reset of expectations.”
“Mitsubishi Motors incurs loss in April-December on U.S. tariffs…
“The company’s global vehicle sales decreased 6% to 589,000 units. Sales fell 4% in Southeast Asia, its major market, and also decreased in North America and Europe… According to its business results released Thursday, the company posted a net loss of ¥4.49 billion…”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/02/06/companies/mitsubishi-motors-tariffs-loss/
“Japan’s biggest banks ready to increase JGB holdings despite growing losses.
“Japan’s two largest banks say they are set to increase their holdings of Japanese government bonds as rising interest rates promise higher returns, even though unrealised losses on existing bond portfolios have grown.”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/japans-biggest-banks-ready-increase-030710555.html
“South Korea stunned by Trump’s latest tariff hike.
“South Korea’s government appeared to be blindsided last week as Donald Trump accused Seoul of “not living up” to a bilateral trade deal concluded in October, and announced a new 25% tariff on Korean imports.”
https://www.dw.com/en/south-korea-stunned-by-trumps-latest-tariff-hike/a-75823025
“Thailand strengthens defences at Ban Nong Ya Kaew [near Cambodia], prepares for future operations.
“On Thursday, Maj Gen Winthai Suvaree, spokesperson for the Royal Thai Army, accompanied local and international media to Ban Nong Ya Kaew in Sa Kaeo Province to observe the aftermath of a military operation aimed at asserting Thailand’s territorial sovereignty.”
https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40062161
“In Afghanistan, a Trail of Hunger and Death Behind U.S. Aid Cuts…
“Historically, Afghanistan has been one of the most aid-dependent nations in the world, with foreign assistance once accounting for nearly 40% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The sudden evaporation of this support has triggered a multifaceted crisis.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/world/asia/afghanistan-us-aid-cuts.html
“A grim shift: women join suicide attacks in the Balochistan Liberation Army.
“Pakistan (MNN) — On January 31, fighters from the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) coordinated attacks across Pakistan’s Balochistan province. Later reports said two of the suicide bombers were women.”
“US-Iran talks begin in Oman amid deep rifts and mounting war fears.
“While both sides have signaled readiness to revive diplomacy, Washington wants the talks to cover Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, support for proxy terror groups around the region and “treatment of their own people,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday.”
“Tankers Speed Through Hormuz Chokepoint on Rising Iran Tensions…
“Very Large Crude Carriers are traveling around the narrow, congested waterway — through which about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade travels — at as much as 17 knots, ship-tracking data show.”
“‘The Kurds had Western support, especially from the US. That support has now been withdrawn’.
“The agreement signed by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa brings an end to the experiment of Rojava, an autonomous region in the northeast of the country. The United States gave its approval for dismantling this Kurdish stronghold and its military wing, both of which it had previously protected…”
“The Real Risks of the Saudi-UAE Feud.
“Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are locked in a broader strategic contest, jockeying over economic, political, and security matters. What was once a friendly competition has devolved into rivalry. The root of their crisis lies in Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s grand plan for its future.”
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/real-risks-saudi-uae-feud
“Ethiopia inches ever closer to war.
“The routine is familiar by now. Nervous queues outside banks running rapidly out of cash. Empty shelves, soaring prices, frantic hoarding of food. Over the past year residents of Tigray, Ethiopia’s northernmost region, have endured at least three similar episodes, terrified each time that another war would erupt.”
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/02/05/ethiopia-inches-ever-closer-to-war
“Famine conditions spread to more towns in Sudan’s Darfur, experts warn.
“Acute malnutrition has reached famine levels in two more areas of western Sudan’s Darfur region, United Nations-backed experts warn, as a civil war between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army has caused widespread hunger.”
“Aid workers missing after airstrikes hit South Sudan hospital…
“The hospital, run by medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) in Jonglei state, “was hit in an air strike by the government of South Sudan forces during the night on Tuesday”, MSF said. The South Sudan government is yet to comment.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20dq9e3qr7o
“‘They killed my sons’: chief of Nigerian village where jihadists massacred hundreds recounts night of terror…
“The traditional chief of a village in western Nigeria where jihadists massacred residents earlier this week has recounted a night of terror during which the attackers killed two of his sons and kidnapped his wife and three daughters.”
“US, Russia vie for influence in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso…
“”We should welcome the fact that America is offering the AES countries, which France and the EU wanted to portray as pariahs, an opportunity for negotiation and discussion,” Dr. Gnaka Lagoke, lecturer in history and Pan-African studies at Lincoln University in Pennsylvania, told DW.”
https://www.dw.com/en/us-russia-vie-for-influence-in-mali-niger-and-burkina-faso/a-75789462
“Cubans rendered powerless as outages persist and tensions with US escalate.
“The smell of sulfur hits hard in this coastal town that produces petroleum and is home to one of Cuba’s largest thermoelectric plants. Yet, even as the plant cranks back to life, residents remain in the dark, surrounded by energy sources they cannot use.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/cuba-santa-cruz-people-donald-trump-venezuela-b2914656.html
“Rising conflict poses economic risks for global defence sector.
“The global defence industry faces structural challenges due to an unexpected surge in demand that could be constrained by economic nationalism, fiscal fragility and supply chain risks, research has warned – with major implications for insurers and lenders.”
https://www.theactuary.com/2026/02/05/rising-conflict-poses-economic-risks-global-defence-sector
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back next week.
Things are falling apart astonishingly quickly, here’s a small part of it coming up.
The BOEM updates on Gulf of Mexico oil and gas activity aren’t as reliable as they used to be, and accelerating climate change is more interesting and important, so I haven’t been keeping up in much detail, but here is a summary from what I’ve seen from Sunday’s update.
2025 was a banner year and set new oil production record for highest month and year, but now drilling and development activity have come to a rapid slowdown and there doesn’t seem much chance of any recovery. Four new or revamped platforms were started up (for Whale, Ballymore, Shenandoah and Leon/Castile). Another three new fields were tied back, with one or two wells (Dover, Katmai West and Sunspear) and two new drill centres were advanced from 2026 schedule (Atlantis and Argo Southwest). So oil production in the second half of 2025 exceeded two million for some months.
On the negative side PowerNap is a recent underperforming tie-back, its wells were converted to gas lift but this only gave them 2-4 more months of low production.
Anchor has been operating for over a year and is at about 60% of design throughput from three wells. Two of the predrilled wells were classed “DSI” at platform start up – meaning drill string suspended, which is often an indication that difficulties were encountered before completion (e.g. no hydrocarbons found or well instability) when there are several days of drilling before being suspended, as here (often subsea wells are spudded and quickly suspended, maybe after setting only the top most section of outer annulus casing). One new well in a new lease was added in May at about 8,000 bpd. One of the suspended well is being sidetracked and one new well in the neighbouring lease is approved for drilling. The first two wells are now declining slowly. The longer it takes to reach design capacity the more it looks like there is a reservoir problem, which would potentially lead to reserve write downs.
In terms of the future there is medium/large Sparta due in 2028 and most planned and active drilling wells are for that. Otherwise there are five deep and one shallow wildcat wells approved, but only two new deep development wells (with expected production) and seven appraisal wells (with less certainty). There are a few shallow in-fill wells planned but these generally only produce a few hundred barrels per day. This activity level is likely to continue a slow decline to end of basin life.
The average natural decline rate for the GoM wells is 15 to 17% which would see a drop of 300,000 to December this year. That could be about 160,000 average annual drop, maybe more if there are hurricane shut ins because this year there were no such losses. Against this there are plans to increase Shenandoah throughput towards the end of the year and some other deep in-fill wells will be added but I can’t see total average additions exceeding about 70,000. Also Stampede FPSO appears to be off line since June and would add 25,000 once it is reattached.
2027 will likely be worse unless there are some new discoveries that can be immediately tied-in, or Sparta is brought on ahead of schedule (which would just mean 2028 would see a much bigger drop).
I’ve never seen a drop off in activity like this in a basin, maybe offshore Nigeria at the end of the 2000s was close. I don’t know if it’s just coincidence (e.g. some projects ahead of schedule and some delayed from 2024) or for some political or financial reasons, though the low oil price means the timing has not been great, or maybe I’m missing something.
The next greenfield projects are Sparta due in 2028 and Kaskida in 2029, each for about 80,000 bpd average annual. Tiber/Guadalupe has just gone through FID with a similar size and likely start in 2030/31. A couple of possible other tie-backs (e.g. Blacktip and Leopard) are under consideration but there’s not much exploration now, so few prospects, and most brownfield opportunities have been exploited.
The post Covid peak for active oil rigs was 20 in October 2023 and this is now down to six deep and one or two shallow. Oil price increase is unlikely to make much difference now and average drilling numbers will continue to slowly fall as there are few applications for new wells or sidetracks and interest in new lease sales.
Of interest income from Shenandoah allowed co-owner Navitas to approve the FID for the Sea Lion project in the Falklands, but it it is at a reduced scale from the original concept.
Global offshore development is slowing faster than I expected. Currently I can only find abound a dozen greenfield projects under construction, FIDs are at about two to four a year (and falling in both size and frequency) and start-ups are about three to five. The IEA recently showed about 8 million bpd (at combined peak) coming on line. Only about one to two million would be from those dozen, the rest would mostly have to come from onshore OPEC brownfield expansions. Tiber/Guadalupe will be among the last offshore start-ups. As the number decreases engineering expertise and competitive equipment suppliers will become scarcer and real costs will inevitably rise (for both greenfield and brownfield tie-backs).
That’s my view from a quick look – YMMV.
Thank you, George, for that fascinating overview. 😎
Thank you very much for the valuable information. Could you describe the situation with Brazilian oil production? What are the prospects for the coming years?
I’m a little hesitant to put up this substack. Take a look, and don’t shoot the messenger. We all know this is a serious problem but did this author botch the message.
https://hrnews1.substack.com/p/study-since-1950-the-nutrient-content?r=1t17zr
Thanks
Excellent post! Yeah, I think the organic carrots I buy, for example, look bad, pasty color etc. Shocking to see the analysis.
What do you mean about having botched the message? Do you mean because they’re saying the solution is regenerative organic farms, when we here believe there is no solution?
No, I thought the way the data was presented could have been done a whole lot better. It is very simple important data, it doesn’t need to be cute.
Yep, besides, I take my vitamins every day along with my pack of Twinkies, which, by the way, make life worth living per Paula Poundstone…
Oh, I forgot to add my Ozempic…
Sorry. This is the Natural fallacy all over again. One of the “sources” here is a health coach. Given the vast quantities of food eaten, even if we grant the alleged “drops” in nutrients, it doesn’t matter anyhow.
Thanks, Duke.
“It’s the result of decades of short-sighted, profit-driven agriculture that treated soil like dirt and food like a widget.”
The global superorganism optimises for immediate calories instead of long-term health; just one of the ways it trades resilience and future vitality for short-term, metabolic speed. Unfortunately, the future we’ve been postponing is almost here.
Soon enough we’ll be grateful for any nutrients.
“Silver lurched between losses and gains, dropping nearly 10% before snapping back, as a lack of liquidity led to wild swings in a market struggling to find a floor… Spot silver rose as much as 6.2% in Asian trading on Friday, having earlier tumbled toward $64 an ounce. That followed a 20% decline in the previous session.”
Since 2018 the stock market has become an endless series of micro-cycles wherein asset classes blow up then shrink back to former levels then resume gains all within a couple months, each round concluding in a cross section of ambitious petty investors getting parted from their wealth. Right now midcaps are exploding. I’ll be conspiratorial here and suggest that one of the INTENDED consequences of this has been to remind the middle class of its place and discipline it for sticking its greedy little snout in the creamy end of the financial trough.
Meanwhile… ‘Let a thousand flowers bloom,’ Jensen Huang says. Demanding ROI from AI is like forcing a child to make a business plan for a hobby.
“There’s a number haunting the artificial intelligence space: 95%. As in, 95% of generative AI pilots are failing”
The solution is peace, love, understanding, and good parenting skills, according to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang”
“I get questions like … ROI,” Huang said. “I wouldn’t go there.”
Of course he won’t go there, that’s the job of self-appointed day traders multitasking stock trades and AI porn on their split screen gaming PCs.
There’s something slightly creepy about him likening running his AI firm to child-rearing and floriculture. Is he trying to co-opt some of their wholesomeness or just bolster his “brilliant visionary” image as the industry wobbles? Perhaps both.
“What does the disappearance of a $100bn deal mean for the AI economy? Apparent collapse of Nvidia–OpenAI tie-up raises questions about circular funding and who will bear the cost of AI’s expansion.”
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/feb/05/disapperance-100bn-deal-ai-circular-economy-funding-nvidia-openai
Wow the world is a really charming place right now..
Thank you Truth Wizard, like to share this with everyone here today a tune sung by the late
Louie Armstrong, What a Wonderful World….video by the Cat Lady 😻
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-T6aaRV9HY
There is much to cherish …
… or the 21’st century version:
Our Wehrmacht-Full World
I see seas turn green, dead roses too
I see the same doom for me and for you
And I think to myself what a Wehrmacht-full world.
I see flies on you, hear cries of fright
The silent dismay, of nuclear night
And I think to myself what a Wehrmacht-full world.
There are star-spangled banners, pretty in the sky
Flying over forts armed to make people fry
I see friends shaking fists, screaming red, white and blue
All they’re really saying’s, “I’m gonna kill you.”
I hear babies cry, and I watch in despair
They’ll all be taught to really not care
And I think to myself what a wonder-filled world.
Yes, I think to myself what a Wehrmacht-full world.
But we call it the global “Defense” sector to ensure that worldwide military operations are always seen as everybody else’s fault other than the country actually inflicting the carnage: Israel, the U.S., and Russia are the most actively murderous countries today, and all three accept no responsibility for the consequences of the mayhem they inflict. WMD manufacturers … all 3 of them … then wage wars for no other reason than to destroy the WMD they sell.
https://robertlowrey.blogspot.com/2017/03/what-wermacht-full-world-arms-strong.html
Rob, Touche, you are definitely smarter than yeast.
“And I think to myself what a Wehrmacht-full world.”
Ouch. 😂
I quite liked the late Israel Kamakawiwo’Ole’s ukulele version; twinned with “Somewhere over the Rainbow”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nflIf8BhMVs&list=RDnflIf8BhMVs&start_radio=1
`👍
Some Notes on a World Without Buffers and the Repricing of Time
If you want to understand what organized “chaos” looks like, you should spend a few days walking along a large rail marshalling yard, where logistics, space, time and efficiency have to be perfectly aligned. There must always be sidings and buffers that, in an emergency, allow for solutions and temporary reshuffling. If those sidings are missing, the consequences are hard to overestimate.
Anyone who reads Pan’s news stream of the past few days in sequence does not see a series of isolated crises, but something else entirely. Not the usual fluctuations of markets, politics or technology, but the disappearance of buffers. Not in one place, but almost everywhere at the same time.
Software companies see their share prices fall, followed shortly by their bonds. Crypto markets decline not because an idea has failed, but because liquidity is evaporating. Commodities swing violently in thin markets. Banks report losses while simultaneously announcing increased purchases of government debt. None of this happens sequentially. It happens simultaneously.
What is becoming visible here is not a classic crisis, but a phase shift. For years, the global system operated with wide margins. Low interest rates, abundant liquidity and optimistic future expectations acted as shock absorbers. Problems could be deferred, costs spread out, risks parked. That space has now disappeared.
At the core of what is unfolding is not collapse, but a repricing of time. Many sectors operated on the assumption that future growth, future efficiency or future profits would arrive more or less automatically. Technology would secure margins, scale would reduce costs, policy would smooth frictions.
Take the technology sector. For years, high valuations were justified by promises of exponential growth. Now that investment in artificial intelligence is exploding without corresponding profits becoming visible, attention shifts from narrative to cash flow. First equities react. Then the debt market follows. This is not panic, but accounting: the question of whether future revenues will actually be sufficient to service present obligations.
Something similar is happening in crypto markets. Bitcoin and related assets are often presented as an alternative system, detached from central banks and politics. In practice, they function primarily as a liquidity barometer. As soon as money becomes more expensive and uncertainty rises, these are among the first markets where positions are reduced, precisely because they offer no buffer in times of stress.
States, too, are feeling the shift. Higher borrowing costs in the United Kingdom or nervous reactions to budget figures in the United States are not the result of a single decision or a single individual. They reflect the simple fact that high debt levels become far less forgiving once interest rates and growth no longer cooperate. Where time was once bought with cheap money, accounts must now be settled immediately.
At the same time, geopolitics is accelerating. This is no coincidence. Power presupposes an economic base. When that base comes under pressure, policy becomes short of breath. Tankers literally speed through strategic sea lanes. Discounts on oil widen. Support for allies is withdrawn. Conflicts that were frozen for years begin to thaw.
In Africa this dynamic is most starkly visible. The population is growing, but the energetic and economic buffers are not. Demand for energy increases while production remains fragmented, infrastructure is lacking and investment is discouraged by instability and informal power structures. The result is immediate local tension: subsidies, shortages and violence. Demography is no buffer without a supporting economic base.
The notion of “safe havens” comes under pressure in all of this. Cash loses purchasing power. Bonds are vulnerable to inflation and debt levels. Equities depend on future expectations. Commodities are volatile. Digital assets depend on liquidity. What remains is chaotic movement. Standing still is not an option, because in a world without buffers, stillness immediately registers as vulnerability.
The global system is beginning to resemble an overcrowded marshalling yard. Everything is still moving, day and night. Wagons are reshuffled, flows redirected, priorities adjusted. But the run-off tracks are gone. Small disruptions have immediate impact, not because they are large, but because there is no longer any space to absorb them. Efficiency has been maximized; resilience has not.
A world without buffers is a world in which mistakes are punished faster, decisions become irreversible more quickly, and time itself becomes the scarce resource. This is not about everything going wrong, but about everything losing its margin at the same time. The system is still running — but without safety nets, without reserves, and without delay.
Have a good journey back to the mainland, Pan…
Meanwhile, the world continues to reshuffle itself feverishly.
‘Efficiency has been maximized; resilience has not.” Exactly.
The brutal emphasis on efficiency characterized by JIT deliberately routs out resilience with the accounting logic of CPA’s: it is a cost, so eliminate it.
This causes single points of failure to proliferate, as plan B now costs too much to even brainstorm about, nevermind formulate and implement.
But eliminating resilience for the extra efficiency it creates only produces Profits of Doom. Yet the aegis of quarterly profits reporting encourages precisely this mentality.
“Have a good journey back to the mainland, Pan….”
Thank you, Zip. I must head off and pack in a moment. I have foolishly left it until the last minute. A splendid essay, btw. The global economy is indeed becoming increasingly fragile and brittle, less resilient to shocks. And goodness knows we have plenty of those looming.
Great comment Zip as always Zip, thank you.
Ai markets are being run by a bunch of toddlers!
Ed Zitron!
You could say the markets are being run by insane pediofiles death merchants who keep us pebs down and there will never be justice for the number of crimes these criminals commit. Until you realize that mother earth will bring justice since extinction will solve it all.
“Ai markets are being run by a bunch of toddlers!”
The markets are run by toddlers and, Jensen Huang would claim, the companies are full of childlike curiosity and experimentation… Well, soon they’ll all be on the naughty step of financial and biophysical limits.
Another El Nino Already? What Can We Learn from It?
https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/ElNino.2026.02.06.pdf
On that Hansen paper, but applying to all climate scientists: 1) if the temperature change is known to be accelerating why fit a linear extrapolation, which implies a constant rate will be maintained, and 2) if the change has accelerated in the past why use a 12 month average, which will always lag the actual numbers on a rising curve. The best fit to historic data would probably be some form of LOESS curve but I don’t remember having seen this used. There are some simple macros available for free but even then I’m not sure my Excel skills (or patience) are up to trying, and anyway I can almost guarantee that it would show we are at or just past 1.5.
Every time a climate scientist says we are currently at 1.3 or 1.4 they are relying on the lag in the centred average estimate – in fact if temperatures keep accelerating to be above the model estimates then the averaged value showing when 1.5 was transgressed will continue to be pushed earlier, to 2024, 2023 etc.
Thanks George…
Wow, there’s some serious hopium towards the end of that paper:
“Don’t be too pessimistic as the evidence for high climate sensitivity grows. Realistic
understanding of the climate situation, and public recognition of that, is the essential first step
toward successfully addressing climate change.”
Meh.
You can count on Hansen for that! 😂😭