“The world economy is hooked on government debt. This year, global growth is being brought to you by the government.
“Rocked by an avalanche of growth-sapping shocks, countries around the world are tearing up savings plans and rolling out large fiscal stimulus packages financed by bumper budget deficits.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-world-economy-is-hooked-on-government-debt/ar-AA1UXpWC
“Japan Bond Crash Unleashes a $7 Trillion Risk for Global Markets…
““It’s a new era,” said Masayuki Koguchi, executive chief fund manager at Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management, one of the nation’s biggest. “I don’t think Japan’s yields have gone far enough yet. This is just the beginning — there’s a chance that bigger shocks will happen.””
“US Government Struggles to Keep a Lid on 10-Year Treasury Yield and Mortgage Rates…
“On Wednesday, Bessent had blamed the surging long-term US Treasury yields on the bond-market meltdown in Japan, during which the 30-year Japanese Government Bond yield spiked by 42 basis points in two days and drove it to 3.91%, the highest since the 30-year bond was introduced in 1999.”
“‘Battle for the Fed’ heats up to challenge rate horizon.
“The battle for Federal Reserve independence has already gone up several gears this year, yet the central bank is showing little sign of capitulation – and now it has support from the Supreme Court and senior politicians.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/battle-fed-heats-up-challenge-rate-horizon-2026-01-26/
“Gold price tops $5,000 an ounce for first time as investors seek safe haven from Trump turmoil…
“With global financial markets already jittery, there are also rising fears of another US shutdown after Democrats threatened funding for the Department of Homeland Security in the wake of the weekend shooting of a man in Minneapolis by federal immigration agents.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/26/gold-prices-record-5000-ounce-trump-turmoil
“Germany is facing calls to withdraw its billions of euros’ worth of gold from US vaults, spurred on by the shift in transatlantic relations and the unpredictability of Donald Trump.
“Germany holds the world’s second biggest national gold reserves after the US, of which approximately €164bn (£142bn) worth – 1,236 tonnes – is stored in New York.”
“Donald Trump on Saturday said he would impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian imports if the North American country makes a trade deal with China.
“Beside that tariff threat, another Trump foreign policy maneuver to make news on Saturday involved the president announcing the US had taken the oil that was on recently seized Venezuelan tankers.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/24/trump-canada-tariff-threat-venezuela-oil
“European leaders gather at North Sea energy summit as Greenland tensions loom.
“European leaders meet in Germany on Monday to discuss North Sea energy and security cooperation, but fears over US designs on the Arctic island of Greenland may overshadow the talks.”
“Europe’s Aluminum Production Collapse Sparks Crisis for Key Industries…
“The European Union (EU) currently consumes 13.5 million tons of aluminum annually to feed its automotive, aerospace, and construction sectors. However, domestic primary production has collapsed to just 950,000 tons-a 93% structural deficit.”
“Clashes erupt at anti-government protest in Albanian capital Tirana.
“Clashes have erupted between police and opposition protesters in Albania’s capital over alleged corruption in the Socialist Party government, with the demonstrators demanding Prime Minister Edi Rama’s resignation.”
“Britain is planning to seize more Russian oil tankers and use profits running into hundreds of millions of pounds to fund Ukraine’s fight against President Putin, the Mail on Sunday can reveal.
“Senior Government sources told the MoS they expect each seized tanker in Russia’s sanctions-busting ‘shadow fleet’ would raise tens of millions…”
“The first three-way peace talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US have ended in Abu Dhabi with no apparent breakthrough, as fighting rages.
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky raised the possibility of a second meeting as early as next week, while an American official said a new round would begin on 1 February.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyr6p30054o
“Russia looks to India to fill labor shortage…
“An Indian diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of bilateral relations, told DW that the labor agreement was also beneficial for India. “Russia needs workers, India needs to export unemployment,” the diplomat explained.”
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-looks-to-india-to-fill-labor-shortage/a-75598015
“China goes on hiring spree for tax officials as fiscal pressures mount…
“In a politically sensitive move, Beijing is considering taking a greater share of tax collection from local authorities, which have been hard hit by a multiyear property market slump that has deprived them of crucial revenues from land sales.”
https://www.ft.com/content/fb5940d8-3878-4d0e-abd8-1f732371806a
“Top China General Accused of Leaking Nuclear Secrets to US, WSJ Says…
“The general is alleged to have leaked core technical data on China’s nuclear weapons to the US and is being probed for allegedly forming political cliques and abusing his authority on military decisions, according to the report…”
“Cold War-level nuclear tensions return to Northeast Asia.
“New START end, China build-up and US trust issues all fueling nuclear desires in Japan, S Korea and possibly Taiwan… One result may be a new round of proliferation in the region, which has been rare to date, with only two countries — China in 1964 and North Korea in 2006 — joining the nuclear club over the past 77 years.”
https://asiatimes.com/2026/01/cold-war-level-nuclear-tensions-return-to-northeast-asia/
“Tearful goodbyes as Japan returns pandas to China amid worsening ties…
“Emotions ran high at the Ueno zoo in Tokyo as people stood in line – some for as long as three-and-a-half hours – to see twin cubs Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei one last time. This comes at a very tense moment in relations between Tokyo and Beijing.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8d0l778dero
“Tensions rise at Trat border as Cambodian troops seen digging trenches on Thai soil.
“Thai soldiers guarding a border area in Trat’s Mueang district said Cambodian troops have been digging trenches inside Thai territory over the past few days and did not stop despite Thai attempts to persuade them to halt, heightening tensions in the area.”
https://www.nationthailand.com/news/asean/40061710
“Myanmar: Jet fuel used in deadly air strikes flowing in on ‘ghost ships’ with suspected links to Iran…
“Amnesty’s analysis of trade, shipping, satellite and port authority data indicates that the Myanmar military is adopting the reported sanction-evasion tactics of countries such as Russia, Iran and North Korea by importing jet fuel on “ghost ships” which turn off their location-tracking Automatic Identification System (AIS) radar to avoid detection.”
“Bangladesh slams India over fugitive ex-PM Hasina’s first public address…
““Allowing the event to take place in the Indian capital and letting mass murderer Hasina openly deliver her hate speech … constitute a clear affront to the people and the Government of Bangladesh,” the ministry said…”
“Activists slam Indian ‘reign of terror’ in held Kashmir…
“Posters and banners depicting various forms of repression in occupied Jammu and Kashmir were displayed at the venue of the sit-in where participants raised slogans against India’s sham democracy and the continued subjugation of Kashmiris.”
https://www.dawn.com/news/1969072
“‘You will reap the whirlwind’: Tehran mural warns of retaliation if US strikes Iran.
“Iranian authorities unveiled a new mural on a giant billboard in a central Tehran square on Sunday with a direct warning to the United States to not attempt a military strike on the country, as US warships head to the region.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/26/iran-tehran-mural-warns-us-against-military-strike
“Iraq to select new leader as US piles pressure to curb Iranian influence.
“Iraq’s dominant Shia political alliance has nominated strongman former leader Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister in a step towards forming a government as the US puts intense pressure on the country to curb Iranian influence.”
https://www.ft.com/content/a28d0a25-0a50-4860-94c3-5e007bfc9b0c
“Saudi Arabia’s UAE ‘mudslinging’ threatens new Gulf crisis.
“Fiery accusations of rights abuses and betrayal have circulated for weeks in state-run and social media after a brief conflict in Yemen, where Saudi air strikes quelled an offensive by UAE-backed separatists.”
“Wave of Israeli attacks kills two in Lebanon in latest ceasefire violation…
“The attacks come amid fears of a major Israeli assault to disarm Hezbollah amid simmering regional tensions and possible strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, the Lebanese group’s top ally.”
“Israel agrees to ‘limited reopening’ of Gaza’s Rafah crossing once operation to locate hostage completed.
“Israel said on Sunday its military was conducting a “large-scale operation” to locate the body of the last hostage in Gaza, adding that it would only reopen the Rafah crossing with Egypt after the mission was completed.”
“Sudan’s women face ‘world’s worst’ sexual violence amid brutal conflict, minister says.
“A social affairs minister for Sudan’s army-backed government said that that women are the main victims of the brutal conflict ongoing since April 2023. Sulaima Ishaq al-Khalifa said Sudanese women are facing “the world’s worst” sexual violence, with reports of rape often perpetrated as “the family witnessed” the crime.”
https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20260124-women-facing-world-worst-sexual-violence-sudan-conflict
“‘Many killed’ as fresh conflict in South Sudan displaces 180,000.
“The world’s youngest country has been beset by war, poverty and massive corruption since it was formed in 2011, but violence is once again on the rise between rival factions, currently focused on Jonglei state north of the capital Juba.”
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/many-killed-as-fresh-conflict-in-s-sudan-displaces-180-000-218206
“Mali plans fuel rationing.
“Mali’s government has moved to impose fuel rationing to counter widespread shortages caused by Al-Qaeda-linked groups operating in the border regions that have, in recent months, cut off fuel supplies to the landlocked African country.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2630520/world
“U.S. Ramps Up Anti-ISIS Offensive in Africa: More Strikes, Intel Sharing with Nigeria Amid Sahel Juntas Ties.
“The US military is expanding equipment supplies and intelligence sharing with Nigeria, Africom’s deputy commander said, as part of a broader American push to work with African militaries and hunt Islamic State-linked militants.”
“Venezuela’s acting president says she has had ‘enough’ of US orders.
“Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez said Sunday she has had “enough” of Washington’s orders, as she works to unite the country after the US capture of its former leader Nicolás Maduro.”
“Cuban official accuses US of ‘piracy’ against sanctioned Caribbean island.
“A Cuban diplomat has accused the United States of “international piracy”, as Washington continues to block Venezuelan oil from reaching the Caribbean island in the wake of the US military attack on the nation and abduction of President Nicolas Maduro.”
“The global clean energy transition is being jeopardized by critical transformer shortages and aging grid infrastructure in the United States and Europe.
“Skyrocketing demand for transformers, driven by global economic development and AI, has led to a significant supply deficit with domestic manufacturing unable to keep pace, escalating costs and delaying new generating plants.”
“Sometime this year, ‘Q-Day’ will come – and all hell will break loose. Cryptocurrencies will crash, the price of gold more than double, and the global financial system will be rocked to its foundations…
“This nightmare scenario has been highlighted by Denmark’s Saxo Bank as its top entry for 2026 in its annual ‘outrageous predictions’. But, as technology experts subsequently admitted, perhaps it’s not so far-fetched after all.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15496919/Q-DAY-upend-world-know-online-banking-nuclear-missile-codes-quantum-computing-crack-planets-digital-encryption-terrifying-consequences.html
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
There is a lot of buzz about ‘gold en silver’ Here some remarks about silver
Silver is a system material, not an investment metal
In the explosive attention given to silver as an “investment metal,” it is often framed as a classic market phenomenon: rising prices, increasing volatility, speculative interest. In that perspective, silver appears as a financial asset, comparable to other precious metals. That framing is misleading. Anyone who approaches silver purely as a financial instrument misses the essential point: today, silver does not primarily function as a store of value, but as a system material.
A system material is neither a bulk commodity nor a luxury good. It is a material that is indispensable, in small quantities, to the functioning of complex infrastructures. It does not disappear from view because it is unimportant, but precisely because it is everywhere at once. Silver belongs to that category.
Silver is essential for solar panels, power electronics, grid components, data centers, and digital infrastructure. It combines properties that are technically difficult to replicate: extremely high electrical conductivity, corrosion resistance, and reliability at very small scales. This combination makes silver indispensable in an increasingly electrified and digitalized economy. It is one of the least visible, yet most critical materials in that system.
Silver is not a freely scalable resource. It is mostly mined as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc production, faces declining ore grades, and disappears into applications where recovery is difficult and economically marginal. Recent price increases and supply tensions are therefore not market anomalies, but signals of a deeper process: depletion as a system dynamic.
In that sense, silver is not an exception but a revealing case. Historically, this shift is not new. For centuries, silver functioned as a monetary metal: scarce, tangible, and slowly mined, which made it suitable as an ordering principle. With the decoupling of money from precious metals in the twentieth century, silver lost that role but did not disappear from the system. It became a quiet enabler of industrialization, first in photography, later in electronics, chemical processes, and medical applications.
In the current phase, silver has changed character again. It is no longer a monetary metal and not a classic bulk commodity, but a system metal: indispensable in small quantities, difficult to substitute, and fundamental to the functioning of complex infrastructures. It makes the energy transition and digitalization technically possible.
Silver production is geographically concentrated and increasingly difficult. Because it is largely produced as a byproduct, supply barely responds to rising prices. Even at historically high prices, rapid scaling is impossible, precisely because “byproduct” mining does not allow it.
China also plays a key role here. Not only as a producer, but above all as a processor and the largest consumer. China dominates the production of solar panels, power electronics, and grid components — exactly the sectors in which silver is functionally indispensable. This means it controls multiple links at once: mining, refining, application, and export.
For Europe in particular, this is a blind spot. The energy transition relies heavily on silver, yet the EU has almost no domestic production, limited refining capacity, and no strategic reserves. Dependence is nearly total.
With a supply disruption of just 5%, costs shift, delivery times stretch, and capital-intensive projects gain priority. At 10% stress, the logic changes fundamentally: access replaces price. The transition continues, but becomes more selective, slower, and less predictable.
Recycling offers no quick solution. Silver is technically recyclable, but it is used in micro-quantities, dispersed across billions of devices. Collection is logistically complex, energy-intensive, and lags demand by decades. Recycling is not a source, but a delayed residual stream.
Taken together, these dynamics clarify what silver really represents: an indispensable metal shifting from market logic to management logic. Not collapse, not stoppage — but growing scarcity.
Zip, thank you – interesting stuff. It seems like those Chinese solar panel manufacturers you mention are looking to replace silver with copper, but there are some technical hurdles still to overcome:
“Copper is more susceptible to oxidation and diffusion-related degradation, increasing requirements for barrier layers, sintering processes, and long-duration damp-heat performance.
“Yield stability at scale and third-party reliability testing are expected to play a central role in determining how quickly copper-metallized cells gain acceptance in mainstream procurement.”
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/01/06/rising-silver-prices-drive-chinas-longi-shift-to-copper-metallized-solar-cells/
“Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez said Sunday she has had “enough” of Washington’s orders, as she works to unite the country after the US capture of its former leader Nicolás Maduro.”
And yet she also said she’s willing to work with the US. So which is it? The true answer is “whatever works” but at the same time that cannot be said aloud. Public statements by decision makers have ceased to matter to the decision makers themselves, because the masses have no real involvement politics any more. Thus politics has become religion, by which I mean that modern ideology is just as arbitrary as modern religious belief. You do what you want and rationalize it by appealing to a religious framework which is itself fully customized to your individual preferences.
Meanwhile the other 90% of humanity just have to man up and learn to live with their lot in life, which is to keep the wheels turning and be grateful that one faction of their social superiors is pretending to defend them from the evil villainy of another. Oh, joy.
You are sounding jaded today, Jupiviv. 😆 It is understandable.
It looks to me like Delcy Rodríguez is walking a public relations tightrope, basically cooperating with the Trump administration whilst trying not to look like its puppet.
Unite the country/Untie from US: 🤔 .
‘Mission Accomplished’: A State in virtual occupation can do neither… ask Iraq; they know a thing or two about that.
I put a short presentation together will all the grim data that you acquire from the scientists doing their finest.
It can be viewed here: https://youtu.be/g8elBTBGuo8?si=QWDq5xmvKFNvl3GM
Nice rundown, Truth Wizard. 😎
Your Marvel intro reminded me of the dialogue between Vision and Ultron in “Age of Ultron,” where Ultron says of humanity, “They’re doomed.”
Vision replies, “Yes. But a thing isn’t beautiful because it lasts.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zKaHp0zW7U
Great stuff Wizard! Though the charts fly by a bit too quick for these aging eyes, I hit pause at the graph of cultivated land, which shows a remarkably plateau since 1990 (after a big slowdown since the 1960s). I reviewed some LTG graphics (1972, 2004) and it seems food production is often one of the first curves to bend and fall, along with industrial production around the same time, while population lags a bit before tipping over the peak. Maybe it’s a mistake. After all, the other curves you show just fly off into foreverup! (I love your cheery finish too, that’s quotable!)
“global clean energy transition” bwah hah hah hah
Leaf, there was a time I would have been tempted to annotate a heading like that, but I don’t think readers need the help.
ME: this a great article!
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Weaponizing the periodic table
China won this war without firing a shot
I’ve been sitting on this one for a while now. Collecting data points that most people missed because they were too busy arguing about tariffs and TikTok bans.
But the trade war is heating up again I think. Inevitably I have to add. And when it does – when the next round of restrictions hits and everyone acts surprised – I want this here.
Because what’s coming isn’t another tariff dispute that gets negotiated away. It’s strategic strangulation through materials nobody can pronounce or understand…
…This is what a victory looks like in 21st-century financial world war. No carriers that are sunk. No cities bombed. Just quiet, patient exploitation of dependencies that nobody noticed until the moment they mattered most….
https://no01.substack.com/p/china-usa
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ME: I believe that China is now moving to hoard all the gold plus silver they can to not only supply their industries, but to be in a superior position for having massive tonnages of silver for coinage for economic lubrication.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thank you, Bob – that is a fascinating article. An interesting titbit: “Magnesium represents the single greatest systemic risk in the entire critical minerals landscape.”
I have no idea whether your speculation is correct re coins but I did find this recent article:
“The People’s Bank of China… has issued new regulations requiring government bodies, public institutions, service providers and businesses to accept renminbi cash and to refrain from discriminating against customers who choose to pay with banknotes or coins.
“The rules are aimed at addressing complaints from elderly people unfamiliar with smartphones and from foreign visitors who find China’s dominant QR-code payment systems difficult to use.”
https://www.plataformamedia.com/en/2025/12/22/china-orders-businesses-to-accept-cash-as-digital-payments-dominate/
Pan, I like the searing comment at the bottom of the article, “Who knew that you had to think beyond quarterly performance?”
I agree, and I think that China plays the strategic long game by planning years & possibly decades ahead.
Sure, QR-codes now, but when FFs and other resources decline to where the ‘juice’ is gone and cellphones are kaput–> China will be ready with gold & silver coinage. The trustworthy metals for the past 6,000 years or more.
———————————–
ROSS NORMAN – GOLD : The Economic Equivalent To Hinge or Tinder …
A friend and I have a long-running joke: whenever we walk into our local village pubs, as veteran gold dealers, we barely get a sip of our first pint before friends, locals, or strangers start firing questions about the gold price. The funny thing is, the moment people begin telling us where they think the market is headed, that’s usually the clearest sign it’s about to top out. For now, though, the barometer hasn’t fallen — not yet.
So, what can we say about who is buying gold and why? Understanding this is essential if we’re to judge whether the current rally still has room to run — and what might eventually signal a peak.
First, the data doesn’t tell us much. Most buying happens in the opaque corners of the market. Yes, there’s plenty of speculation, but very little empirical evidence about the key buyers. The days of the Washington Accord, when central bankers telegraphed their moves in advance, are long gone. Today’s official buyers are discreet and nuanced — they leave no vapour trail to indicate their direction of travel….
https://www.metalsdaily.com/archive/ross-norman-gold-the-economic-equivalent-to-hinge-or-tinder-/379190
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ME: We will be freezing in the dark, hungry as hell. Meanwhile, China will still have the lights on & cellphones running for a period of years before even they join the inevitable race to the bottom.
I kind of doubt that, Bob. China imports a helluva lot of commodities, like soybeans and oil. Those countries would have to still be functioning as well for that to work.
Yes that is quite an article. Thank you very much Bob
As for the penultimate post, the only energy transition I see being made since Y2K is to a “More & More &More” (Jean-Baptiste Fressoz) energy-intensive existence, whereby every person on the planet owns fewer and fewer material possessions, which are replaced by energy-intensive processes.
A true energy transition would entail a significant reduction in energy consumption whereas in the last quarter of a century, ie during the entire 21’st century, (during which ‘Energiewende was the mottto), per capita energy consumption has skyrocketed to accomplish nothing more than what was accomplished prior to said “transition”.
Manufacturing a hand-wound machine such as a phonograph accomplishes three things the pseudo-transition doesn’t:
It sequesters carbon in the material goods robofactured; it creates true ownership that is not dependent upon a single point of failure (the network) to enjoy the benefits of ownership (“owning” a music album that is nothing more than a pointer in a substack wherein your access to it is restricted by the state of the n/w , and which to listen to requires initiating a stream of electrons employing machinery in multiple locations to deliver it, is actually the exact opposite of ownership: your property is never in your possession: it is merely rehypothecated, and, as in finance, rehypothecation only works as long as the demand on the same resource is made on a serial basis); it moves the energy production to the same location where said energy is needed/being used: your living room, with you as the carbon-emitting energy source.
The carbon you emit is on an exponentially smaller scale than that which has been devised by our current (no pun intended) so-called energy transition which leaves ownership of products subject to the blackmail of n/w access and “storage” fees: if you don’t pay, you don’t play … happy Ownership.
Rob, you’re really plugged in. Great points!
Rob, my apologies that this comment got stuck in moderation overnight. No idea why.
I keep meaning to buy a hand-wound phonograph. Wouldn’t it be a tonic in a faltering/failing grid scenario to be able to put some music on!
FYI ~ Art Berman has a new one up.
https://www.artberman.com/blog/complexitys-revenge-electric-power-and-ai/
Hello Survivalist, yep Art Berman is always a good read. I have been reading his stuff since way back when he was on TheOilDrum.com.