Huge thanks to all of you who contributed to my fundraiser, which has now reached its target. I was very touched by the generosity. And thank you, as ever, to all those who subscribe and donate. I couldn’t do this without you.
“Thousands of cities around the world saw their hottest year on record last year from Shanghai to Moscow to Salt Lake City…
“As for cities with record-breaking cold, there was just one last year: Manvi, in the Indian state of Karnataka. It’s the first time any city in the world has seen its coldest year since 2014…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/climate/the-cities-that-broke-heat-records-last-year.html
“Which latitudes saw the largest temperature anomalies in 2025?
“While the tropics contributed less to 2025’s global temperature anomaly than in 2024 and 2023, the Antarctic region recorded its warmest year on record and the Arctic its 2nd warmest.”
https://x.com/CopernicusECMWF/status/2011735960049106967
“Friday ice update – Arctic sea ice extent is currently the 2nd lowest on record (JAXA data)…
• about 420,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 960,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 1,530,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 1,950,000 km² below the 1980s mean.
“The total volume of Arctic sea ice has been at or near record low levels for every day since late October.” [Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3mckbks4c4c2o
“This cruise line is teaching guests how to track climate change in polar ice caps.
“Passengers can do their bit to help monitor climate change during a new citizen science project aboard Aurora Expeditions’ Antarctica cruises. The expedition cruise line has partnered with physics teacher and scientist Joe Muise who runs the Thermal Imaging of Polar Ice project to help collect data on the region’s changing landscapes.”
“Satellite data show that wildland fires are becoming more common across the Arctic, particularly in Eurasia.
“In the far north, wildfires are breaking old patterns. Satellite data show that wildland fires once scattered across the Arctic are now surging in numbers—particularly in northern Eurasia—and many are burning more intensely than before.”
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/fires-on-the-rise-in-the-far-north/
“Drought kills two in five new trees in Peak District, shock National Trust report reveals. [UK]
“Bookended by storms Éowyn and Bram, 2025 delivered a sun-soaked spring and baking summer followed by autumn floods – a rollercoaster of conditions that has tested nature’s resilience like never before.”
“Spain’s environment minister warns of ‘alarming increase’ in hate speech towards the country’s weather forecasters.
“In a report filed with prosecutors on Wednesday, Sara Aagesen said weather forecasters, science communicators and researchers were being targeted with ‘hate speech, personal attacks and denigration’ across several online platforms, including X.”
“Africa’s water challenges grow as climate change escalates.
“…almost all countries subsidise their water systems in some way, yet in most of Africa governments have traditionally turned to donors to provide these subsidies in the absence of a sufficient local tax base.”
https://african.business/2026/01/resources/africas-water-challenges-grow-as-climate-change-escalates
“Never ending record heat in the Gulf of Guinea, years of breaking records non-stop.
“MINIMUM temperatures always exceptional: 28.3 Cotonou BENIN, 27.6 [81.7F] Axim GHANA, 27.1 Abidjan IVORY COAST etc New January record:25.8 Akim Oda GHANA.”
[Extreme Temps]
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2011750152848179618
“Cape Town sounds alarm as dam levels plummet after heatwave.
“Cape Town authorities have issued an urgent appeal for residents, businesses and visitors to cut back on water use after dam levels dropped significantly following a surge in consumption during recent hot weather.”
“More than 100 people die after torrential rain and flooding in South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.
“At least 103 people have died in Mozambique, the worst-affected country, where more than 200,000 people have been affected, thousands of homes have been damaged and tens of thousands of people are facing evacuation.”
“Farmers in war-torn Yemen fighting the climate crisis against the odds…
“Precipitation in the already arid country has fallen by an average of 6.25mm per decade since 1971, according to the World Bank. Extreme heat and the falling use of traditional water-storage infrastructure mean that overall water availability in the country has declined by 60 per cent since 1990.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/yemen-war-climate-aid-trump-b2900647.html
“US offers to mediate revived talks on Nile River water dispute.
“U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Friday that the United States is ready to relaunch diplomatic mediation efforts between Egypt and Ethiopia concerning their protracted dispute over sharing the waters of the Nile River.”
“Silent extinction: Iraq’s wildlife fades as water runs out.
“Iraq’s wildlife is not disappearing in a single catastrophic moment. It is slipping away year after year until absence starts to feel ordinary, from the Mesopotamian Marshes in the south to northern mountain ranges and western deserts…”
https://shafaq.com/en/Report/Silent-extinction-Iraq-s-wildlife-fades-as-water-runs-out
“How ‘day zero’ water shortages in Iran are fuelling protests…
“‘Day Zero’… is now threatening Mashhad, Tabriz and Tehran, where taps in the city’s southern districts had already run dry by early December. Nightly “pressure cuts”, in which the water supply is halted to whole districts in the capital, have become the norm.”
“Climate change leads to human-bear clashes in the Himalayas.
“On New Year’s Day, Kesar Singh of Khunana village in Chamoli district in Uttarakhand, who sustained grievous injuries in a bear attack, was airlifted to All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Rishikesh, for medical treatment…”
“Unusually warm January in China continues, with 40 stations broke or tied January warmest records today, and another 55 broke or tied mid-January warmest records!
“China affected by extreme warmth will expand again tomorrow, with more stations breaking records.” [Jim Yang]
https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/2012142791460278599
“Russia: successive snowstorms engulf far eastern region of Kamchatka.
“Heavy snow is not uncommon in Kamchatka, but the unusual intensity of the storms has left the region’s major city partially paralysed. Snow piles reached three metres high, and sometimes even more. Schools have shut and businesses have switched to remote working.”
“Extreme Snowfall: An Effect of Global Warming.
“Reductions in Arctic sea ice caused by global warming have ironically led to record-breaking Northern Hemisphere snowfalls and frequent winter storms. The mechanism involves Arctic warming reducing the temperature contrast between the Arctic and mid-latitudes, which weakens the polar jet stream, causing it to dip further south, dragging cold Arctic air and moisture with it…”
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/shows/6128030/
“Record heat in Japan and Korea:
Warm air from China reached Northern Japan. 17.4C [63.3F] today at Toyoda, Yamaguchi Prefecture is a new record of January highest temperature… record heat in the KOREAS with temperatures again up to 20C [68F]; 17.5C at Geochang in South Korea broke its record of January highest temperature again.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2011727690282479806
“Indonesia sues six companies over environmental harm in flood zones.
“Indonesia’s government has filed multiple lawsuits seeking more than $200m in damages against six firms, after deadly floods wreaked havoc across Sumatra, killing more than 1,000 people last year, although environmentalists criticised the moves as inadequate.”
“HISTORIC HEAT IN INDONESIA:
“Another record hot night in the Eastern Provinces with a Minimum of 28.6C [83.5F] at Bau Bau, hottest night in history, previous record…yesterday. West Papua, Sulawesi, The Molukkas and West Timor all had their hottest nights in history in the past weeks.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2012340983870988442
“Wildfires occur in three provinces despite rainy season: BNPB [Indonesia].
“The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) said it received reports of wildfires in three provinces, which are Aceh, Riau, and Central Kalimantan, even as parts of the country remain in the rainy season.”
https://en.antaranews.com/news/400322/wildfires-occur-in-three-provinces-despite-rainy-season-bnpb
“Australian insurance association declares bushfires ‘catastrophe’.
“The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) on Friday escalated its significant event declaration to an “insurance catastrophe” for the Victorian bushfires. Fires have burned more than 400,000 hectares in south-east Australia. Economic losses from fires likely to reach hundreds of millions of dollars, according to Aon.”
“‘Great balls of ice!’ Hail storm smashes windscreens and properties [NSW].
“The storm at about 4.15pm on Thursday, January 15 hit areas southeast and southwest of Goulburn hardest. Golf ball size hailstones smashed motorists’ windscreens on the Federal Highway and Braidwood Road, severely dented vehicles and damaged houses.”
“What we know about the flash flooding along the Great Ocean Road.
“Record-breaking rain fell on the popular holiday towns along Victoria’s Great Ocean Road in the space of a few hours on Thursday, triggering flash flooding that swept away cars, caravans and tents.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-16/vic-what-caused-great-ocean-road-flash-flooding/106235904
“MOST EXTREME HEAT WAVE IN OCEANIA HISTORY outside Australia going on…
“NEW CALEDONIA with up to 38.0C [100.4F] and Minimums of 27C for days and it will get worse.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2012142825899757870
“Wildfires continue in Argentine Patagonia; ten provinces on alert.
“The Federal Emergency Agency of Argentina issued warnings of fire danger not only in the Patagonian provinces of Neuquén, Río Negro, Chubut and Santa Cruz, but also in La Pampa, the Cuyo region (San Juan, Mendoza, San Luis), and in the southern reaches of Córdoba and Buenos Aires.”
“Power providers in Buenos Aires restored electricity in Argentina’s capital Thursday, after massive blackouts hit at least 1 million customers amid an extreme heat wave…
“Electricity outages were concentrated in northern parts of the city, including neighborhoods Belgrano, Palermo, Villa del Parque, Mataderos and Saavedra.”
“Incredible, never-before-seen footage and images of the world’s biggest uncontacted tribe have surfaced, with spear-wielding Amazonian hunters shown interacting with Western explorers.
“The astonishing scenes were captured by American conservationist Paul Rosalie, who claims to be the first to capture high-definition images of the remote tribe.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15470957/footage-hunters-uncontacted-Amazon-tribe.html
“‘We’re in danger of extinction’: can Bolivia’s ‘water people’ survive a rising tide of salt and migration?
“The Uru Chipaya, one of South America’s most ancient civilisations, are battling drought, salinity and an exodus of their people as the climate crisis wreaks havoc on their land… Chipaya lies on Bolivia’s Altiplano, 35 miles from the Chilean border.”
“Can Costa Rica’s cloud forests cope with climate change?
“…“It’s very likely that the overall area of cloud forests will be reduced, because the conditions that create them are changing. The clouds are moving up,” said Gerardo Avalos, a professor of ecology at the University of Costa Rica.”
“EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN THE CARIBBEAN:
“Caribbean are living some extraordinary, never seen before: 100% of the countries breaking and rebreaking records continuously. Today 30.7C at Saba HOTTEST JANUARY DAY IN HISTORY; 31.7 [89.1F] again at St Thomas US VIRGIN ISLANDS HOTTEST JANUARY DAY.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/2011988079318643023
“The Cross-Border Fight for Water in the Rio Grande Valley.
“Water scarcity is a fact of life for people in South Texas and the Chihuahuan Desert of northern Mexico. While Texans in the Rio Grande Valley have so far avoided scientists’ predictions of a “Zero Day” when the water runs out, residents of Monterrey, Mexico, have already faced it.”
https://www.texasmonthly.com/podcast/tm-out-loud-mexico-water/
“Small farms fight for survival in a warming Midwest.
“As the climate warms, farmers in the Midwest are struggling with more extreme weather – from floods to droughts, heat waves, and wildfires. Hoidal: “It kind of feels like every year is a new unexpected challenge.””
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/small-farms-fight-for-survival-in-a-warming-midwest/
“Much of the West is having its warmest winter on record — and it’s fueling a snow drought…
“A lack of snow — known as a snow drought — grips much of the West as a result of the unusually high temperatures, even as winter reaches the midway point. Snow cover was less extensive than any Jan. 14 on record across the West, according to satellite-based measurements.”
https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/snow-drought-winter-california-west-21292968.php
“Lake Mead’s projected record low gets even lower.
“New federal projections for Southern Nevada’s main water source were released Friday and paint an even more dismal picture amid a tight interstate negotiation over the future of the American West… All water users along the Colorado River must learn to live with less.”
“Angry oceans set records on West Coast.
“Consistently warming oceans have fueled a rash of subtle records, especially on the West Coast. High tides get higher; temperatures set records… Ocean heat content continued to set records globally in 2025, with “broad ocean warming across basins…””
“Upper-ocean heat content data for December showed that the West Pacific Warm Pool remained fifth warmest on record, despite some of its heat already being discharged eastward.
“This warmth raises the ceiling on the potential strength of El Niño later in 2026.” [Ben Noll]
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2012177773280870899
“An additional dataset in showing that global ocean heat content (0-2000 m depth) is surging off the charts after another new record in 2025.
“Graphics/Data from NOAA.”
[Zack Labe]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3mchovow2bk2u
“One uncertainty that keeps me awake is whether we are underestimating the forced RATE of global heat uptake warming, because the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been hiding the real rate.” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/2011846540201972186
“Mining the Deep Sea: How the US is Unlocking the Ocean’s Critical Minerals.
“In 2025, the US witnessed a significant growth in corporate interest and activity in deep sea mining under US laws, namely, the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act… This has largely been driven by a renewed federal push to secure critical mineral resources from the ocean floor, spurred by President Donald Trump’s Executive Order…”
“Pollution leaves its mark deep inside seabirds’ cells.
“The impacts of pollution on seabirds are often visible at the surface – oil-coated plumage, contaminated eggs, or declining breeding success. But new research reveals that pollutants can also affect birds at a far more fundamental level, altering how their cells generate the energy needed to survive.”
I rely on donations and tips from my readers to to keep the site running. Every little bit helps. Can you chip in even a dollar? Buy me a coffee or become a Patreon supporter. A huge thank you to those who do subscribe or donate.
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
“Three great forces rule the world: stupidity, fear, and greed”
— Albert Einstein
I love a good quote. Have a document full of them. Keep ’em coming, flippr!
Flippr, I’m afraid overshoot is certainly bringing those characteristics out in abundance.
Never ending record nightmare for the people of Earth.
“While the tropics contributed less to 2025’s global temperature anomaly than in 2024 and 2023, the Antarctic region recorded its warmest year on record and the Arctic its 2nd warmest.”
The premise for the next round of good cop/bad cop political theatre designed to babysit asset inflation through the next trade war/net energy decline flashpoint just dropped. No need to be scared of climate change when you can debate the ethics of invading Greenland all the livelong day. This what the US vs EU “tension” over possession of Greenland is really all about: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2777156-greenland-s-resources-face-extraction-hurdles
Despite the resource quantities, few companies participate in Greenland’s mining industry as difficult geological and geographical factors, harsh weather and limited existing infrastructure imply high operational costs, according to GEUS. A few rare earths and “critical minerals” projects are in exploratory phases however, and have received significant interest in government funding to propel production.
US-based Critical Metals owns the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland, which holds an estimated 27pc of global heavy rare earths, according to the company, but the project has yet to achieve commercial production. […]received a letter of interest for $120mn from the US Export-Import Bank for its Tanbreez rare earths project in June, covering studies, pre-production and initial mining.
Canadian firm Greenland Resources’ was granted a 30-year exploitation permit for molybdenum and magnesium for its Malmberg project in east Greenland in June, but has yet to start commercial production. The company has signed long-term supply agreements from the project with Finland-based stainless steel producer Outokumpu, German metal supplier Hempel Metallurgical and Italian specialty steel manufacturer Cogne Acciai Speciali within the last year.
In all the reporting around this issue I have heard a handful of offhand references to the US military bases that were established in Greenland more than eighty years ago and have operated there with the full (NATO-aligned) European support ever since. Anyway US and EU capitalists are squabbling over their future shares of unhatched chickens. Big fracking deal *yawn*.
EXACTLY!
Sigh.
P.S. What a jewel of a planet we have trashed.
All in the name of progress, advancement of civilization and the idea of riches
Japanese proverb
“The Gods only chuckle when people pray for wealth”🤑🙏
Yeah, we’ve been hook winked…
So much of our imagined future wealth is now putative, and we are squabbling over land and resources that will soon be functionally useless with the acceleration of climate change and associated mayhem.
Geopolitics is increasingly “a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing,” to borrow Macbeth’s memorable phrase.
re: “This cruise line is teaching guests how to track climate change in polar ice caps.”
Reminds me of The Restaurant at the End of the Universe” 🙂
Castle_Doc, it definitely has that vibe. 😆
However, Milliways (the restaurant) was built within a specially constructed time bubble, allowing patrons to dine whilst watching the apocalypse without being destroyed by it. I don’t think we’re going to be so lucky. 😬
“This cruise line is teaching guests how to track climate change in polar ice caps.
“Passengers can do their bit to help monitor climate change during a new citizen science project aboard Aurora Expeditions’ Antarctica cruises. The expedition cruise line has partnered with physics teacher and scientist Joe Muise who runs the Thermal Imaging of Polar Ice project to help collect data on the region’s changing landscapes.”
You know, I hate cruise ships, cruise lines whatever you want to call them. This isn’t helping anything; it should have been on of those end articles because this is a joke. Send a GD science vessel not a cruise line whose priority is to make profits. I looked at one of the ships – looks like a regular cruise ship to me. They can market it any way they want but its counter productive.
It’s just disappointing for me to see this kind of nonsense. Market a huge polluter, a cruise ship, as some kind of effort to assist in climate change monitoring. Like I said, what a joke. Then, who is going to take these measurements seriously? Oh, a bunch of passengers on a cruise line collected the data with their smart phone apps.
Edward, I agree. It is very much pissing in the wind.
I would have put the article at the end of the thread but it seemed to go better with the other Arctic/Antarctic ones.
Container Concepts That Make a Water Crisis Seem Manageable
Why “learning to live with less water” loses its meaning before 2040
In the American Southwest, the same formulation keeps reappearing: all users along the Colorado River must learn to live with less water. It sounds reasonable, even mature. But the phrase conceals what is actually happening. The water system is not adapting. It is running out.
The visible crisis is concentrated around Lake Mead, where water levels have been declining structurally for more than twenty years. Less visible, but far more decisive, is what is happening underground. As reservoirs were depleted, groundwater became the silent buffer. Aquifers in Arizona, California, and Nevada served as a reserve — not as a renewable resource, but as stored history.
These aquifers largely contain fossil water, formed under very different climatic conditions. In today’s arid regime, they are barely replenished. Measurements show that groundwater loss across large parts of the Southwest is occurring faster than the decline of surface reservoirs. Added to this is an irreversible effect: when sediment layers compact, storage capacity is permanently lost. What is gone does not return.
Pumping more water does not buy time here; it accelerates finality.
What “adaptation” actually means
In policy documents, adaptation stands for efficiency, reuse, and behavioral change. In practice, the process unfolds differently. First, surface water is restricted. Then groundwater extraction increases. Costs rise: wells must be drilled deeper, energy use increases, irrigation becomes more expensive. At a certain point, agriculture is no longer economically viable.
This is not a future scenario. It is already visible in parts of California’s Central Valley and southern Arizona. Land is leaving production not because of policy choices, but because the subsurface is losing its function.
If one simply extends the trends of the past twenty years — without invoking technological “salvation narratives” — the year 2040 can be calmly circled in red. Around that point, aquifers in large parts of the system will no longer function as a buffer but as a limiting factor. Every dry year will structurally become a crisis year.
Fifteen years is a very short time in terms of infrastructure, agriculture, and spatial planning. It is one investment cycle, one generation of farmers, one mortgage term.
The phrase “all users must learn to live with less” suggests equality. That equality does not exist. Cities receive priority. Agriculture absorbs the losses. That is rational, but it means that a large share of water use — and with it a large part of the regional economy — disappears structurally.
Approximately 40 million people depend directly or indirectly on the Colorado River system. For them, this means a redrawing of the region: far less agriculture, reduced economic activity — and ultimately, fewer people.
Container concepts make a declining system manageable in words. They postpone what cannot be postponed. Water cannot be managed once the subsurface has lost its elasticity. The question, therefore, is how the time until roughly 2040 is used: to organize an orderly drawdown, or to deny it for as long as possible.
Those who continue to speak of adaptation until 2040 are not looking ahead, but backward — toward water that is already gone.
Thank you for another of your enlightening essays, Zip.
It seems like we are not far off this issue having major political ramifications. The seven states that rely on the Colorado River are still deadlocked on how to manage water after 2026 when the current rules expire. And the tribes want their share of the action, too:
“Now tribes want to make it clear that any future agreements on how to manage the river’s water must include their input and an acknowledgment that they intend to develop their water rights.”
https://nevadacurrent.com/2026/01/05/tribes-stake-their-claim-on-the-colorado-river-and-help-conserve-it/
‘All users must learn to use less suggests equality” … sound familiar? It’s exactly the same ruse used for both energy & plastic usage: it’s all the consumers’ fault. Yet both crypto & AI are a cruel trump on all efforts made by the Hoi polloi to reduce their usage, making assertions to do so sound mockingly cynical. The same applies to plastic: EV’s use even a greater quantity of plastic than ICE machines yet are called “green”, while here in SF they have replaced single use bags with a heavier, more energetically-intense process bags that you can use 125 times 🤣, that everyone uses exactly once, but that they now have to pay .25 for.
Corporate rule is not the solution, it is the problem, as Corporations possess more wealth than the GDP of every nation outside the OECD combined, yet every law passed to limit or tax their wealth is written by corporate lawyers and passed by congressional stooges who mostly cannot even be bothered to read them (why bother, unless you think you can get another bribe to let a particularly obvious obeisance to corporate rule go unchallenged).
“It’s exactly the same ruse used for both energy & plastic usage.”
Rob, you make some excellent points. I guess this is Jevons’ Paradox in action, with total resource use continuing to climb no matter how loudly we preach efficiency and restraint.
Re the latter, I watched some Family Guy Christmas specials with the kids over the festive season. One of them ends up being a morality tale where the good citizens of Quahog agree to receive just one Christmas present each in order to halt the environmental destruction of Santa’s North Pole kingdom. Well, it’s a nice idea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAvGAcTlx_I
Next few El Niños is gonna be rough. I’m sure there’s some cornucopian navel gazers chirping otherwise.
It’s all gonna burn.
That is certainly a risk, Survivalist.
“…a warmer climate ENSO may lock-in in a different state, in which nearly each El Niño is an extreme Eastern Pacific El Niño.”
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL107848
ME: Interesting scenario below:
Why an invasion of Greenland might cause the end of Canada
The Two-for-One Special: Greenland and Canada
https://www.collapse2050.com/why-an-invasion-of-greenland-might-cause-the-end-of-canada/
—————————
ME: I always thought that Mexico & Canada & USA would eventually all band together voluntarily. The sum of the three parts would be far greater than the three going it alone, or even much worse–> by fighting each other to further steepen the downslope of the Seneca Collapse.
Three country cooperation to reach North American Carrying Capacity by education of voluntary population control and saving habitats would be far better than tanks, planes, and starving hordes running amok burning and trampling what little is left of North America.
Trump has probably permanently foreclosed that option by his wrong-headed dictatorial & BAU actions. He really needs to study CACTUS = Complexity Accelerated Collapse of a Thermodynamically Unsustainable System. But I doubt that he is capable of even accurately comprehending the article.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob, it’s an extreme scenario but, as with your previous one, nothing would surprise me. I can’t imagine Trump is liking Canada’s recent pivot to China. He’s wielding those tariffs again:
“Trump says eight European countries face 10% tariff for opposing US control of Greenland. Donald Trump has said he will impose 10% tariffs on Nato countries – including the UK, France, and Germany – who have deployed troops to Greenland amid US threats to take over the Arctic island…
““This Tariff will be due and payable until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland,” he added.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jan/17/hands-off-greenland-protests-denmark-us-donald-trump-europe-latest-news-updates
Nasty weekend in southern Australia continues, “whiplash” from major bushfires to horrific storm/flash flooding in less than a week!
Unbelievable luck with the Great Ocean Road coastal river holiday parks & small towns.. no casualties or even serious injuries.. but hundreds of cars, vans, small boats, tents washed out to sea or jammed up against road bridges etc.
from 19th Century, part of that stretch of coast became known as the Ship-Wreck Coast, but from open sea storms, not flash-flood land washes from what are usually small coastal rivers.
Where I am, the rolling storms aren’t so bad, although I’ve been caught out twice, just walking my dog around the neighbourhood in sudden thundery downpours. And the news has a lot of towns and regions flip-flopping between “residents may return with caution” or “evacuation centres at a, b or C”
Rain, thanks for the local intel. I hope you manage to continue dodging the worst of it.
I am amazed there were no fatalities in that flooding. The pictures are insane.
My heart goes out to Greenland…💞💓❤️🇬🇱🇬🇱
https://youtu.be/hS0wFiWpU4U?si=HvlY02mLlb5-PWBU
Hello Rain,
Please take care down under! Outstanding video–> I hope every C &E reader gets to see this. Maybe Pan or you will repost this youtube link on Monday blog.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Nice. 😂
Trump is apparently not bluffing. EU ambassadors to hold emergency talks today… What extraordinary times these are.
Off topic with respect to climate, but, Trump has alienated every ally that the US has or had in about one year’s time.
From the BBC:
“US President Donald Trump’s apparently coercive threat to force Western allies not to oppose his proposed annexation of Greenland, or face further damage to their trade with the US, is without both parallel and precedent.
We’ve had some unusual and unexpected economic threats from President Trump over the past year, but I think it is safe to say this exceeds all of them, and takes us into both surreal and utterly dangerous territory.
If taken at face value, it is a form of economic war being levied by the White House on its closest allies.
That’s because it targets allies at incredibly short notice and for a cause that essentially could break up Nato and the western alliance.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gjdx241wo
From the same article:
“Nobody in the world would assume that a threat like this – based on acquiring the land of your ally – would ever actually happen. Does Trump really have the backing in the US, in Congress, even in his own administration to do this?”
It’s gonna be a real shame the next time USA gets 9/11’d by third party actors based in rural Afghanistan. Seriously, WTF we gonna do about it?
“Silent extinction:”
I want to hear screaming & see the suffering this species has chosen for it’s finding out stage. How did they arrive here, ego was their pilot.
Did anyone else notice how the comments section of Peak Oil Barrel has become a sh*thole?
yes .Nothing there of interest now .
Agreed. If you want to listen to some pedant call Ron an asshole because he forecast peak oil to occur in 2010 and it didn’t happen until 2018, it’s a good place to start. The comments section reads like a bunch of Biden Bros vs MAGA Hats who only fly from gated community to gated community; buddy thinks he knows People cuz he’s been working in the Texas Back 40 all his life, and the guy that always disagrees with him hasn’t left the cubicle since college.
There’s some good technical data at POB, but not a lot of wisdom.
Trump crowns himself the “Tariff King” on his Truth Social website.
https://radaronline.com/p/donald-trump-crowns-himself-tariff-king-late-night-rant-trade-war/
I am surprised that he didn’t go further and crown himself the “Terrific Tariff King”, so the week after he can then proudly move to calling himself the “Absolutely Terrific Tariff King”, and so on such as:
“The Absolutely Terrifying & yet still the Absolutely Terrific Tariff King”
Trump did know about the original ‘Tariff King” & it is yet another trumpian example of outright plagiarism or theft of another late President’s claim to fame like the renaming of the JFK Center:
Bing search of tariff king:
—————————
William McKinley, known as “The Tariff King,” was a pivotal figure in U.S. history for his strong advocacy of protective tariffs, particularly the McKinley Tariff of 1890, which aimed to protect American industries….
——————-
ME: which led to the Panic of 1893…
“… Unemployment rates in many states rose above 25% and poverty became widespread.”
ME: this was on the UPslope of the Seneca Curve when water, topsoil, fish & game, and rich ores were plentiful, and the nascent fossil fuel industries were gaining technology and production speed.
I bet we are all NOT looking forward to DOWNslope combined with the next ‘Great Panic of 202X’….
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
“For fiscal year 2025 (ended September 30, 2025), the U.S. government generated $195 billion in revenue from customs duties. This represents a record 250% increase over the $77 billion collected in 2024, largely driven by expanded trade levies.”
Tariffs are 4% of general revenue
Suvivalist, thxs for your input,
IMO, what Trump seems to forget is that most Americans now understand that tariffs make homegrown or home manufactured goods more expensive, ie, more unaffordable to purchase. Essentially a tax on American Mfgs when they import a foreign good, which is later passed through to the American consumer. If the mfg doesn’t import, then he has to outlay more cash to buy a product from a shrinking American source.
Yep, as your posting above explains: fiat money to the Fed Treasury does goes up. But the Govt will probably piss it away on some totally non-productive ideas that will do nothing to make the basics of life more affordable to the ‘useless eaters’.
The funds being used to build a Whitehouse Ballroom is a good example of waste. Incessant round trip flights from DC to Mar-a-Largesse are another.
Congress voting themselves another payraise to do nothing but look stupid is another.
The list goes on….
When the American Southwest migrates north from lack of water & lack of hydropower for AC and refrigerators, then spending $195 billion to refurbish the abandoned Detroit area’s infrastructure in early preparation for their arrival might be a better use of these tariff funds.
But I don’t expect the Feds to be Proactive. Hell, they don’t even want to be Reactive as Trump is cutting back FEMA:
“FEMA is getting rid of thousands of workers in areas recovering from disasters”
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/16/nx-s1-5677605/fema-cuts-jobs-trump
So I asked Microsoft AI Copilot: “Let us explore what it would look like if overshoot were taught in mainstream courses”
ANSWER: some editing by me to condense the AI reply.
——————————————-
Imagining Overshoot & Collapse as a mainstream part of high‑school and college education is surprisingly powerful. It reshapes not just what students learn, but how they think about systems, limits, and long‑term consequences. Let’s build that world together.
What Biology, Earth Science, and Social Studies Would Look Like
If overshoot became a standard concept—like photosynthesis or evolution—students would encounter it early, often, and in multiple subjects.
🧬 Biology Class: Overshoot as a Core Ecological Principle
Students would learn:
Carrying capacity not as a side note, but as a central ecological law
Feedback loops (positive and negative) as biological mechanisms
Population overshoot using real ecosystems, not just deer or yeast
Energy flows and why all life depends on finite inputs
These topics would build systems thinking from day one.
Earth Science: Planetary Boundaries as Standard Curriculum
Overshoot becomes the lens for understanding: climate change, biodiversity loss, freshwater depletion, soil erosion, and energy transitions.
Instead of isolated “environmental problems,” students see a single integrated system hitting limits.
Math Class: Nonlinear Thinking
Overshoot requires exponential functions, logistic curves, differential equations, delay equations.
Instead of only linear models, students learn why real systems behave in nonlinear, counterintuitive ways.
History & Social Studies: Civilizations Through a Systems Lens
Students examine: the Maya, Easter Island, Mesopotamia, the Roman Empire.
Not as isolated stories, but as case studies in overshoot: resource depletion, soil degradation, deforestation, energy transitions, social rigidity.
Classroom example:
A unit titled “Why Civilizations Collapse” uses Tainter, Diamond, and modern system dynamics to compare ancient and modern overshoot patterns.
Economics: Growth vs. Limits
Mainstream economics courses would finally include ecological economics, energy return on investment (EROI), diminishing returns, steady‑state economics, degrowth frameworks.
Students would learn that infinite growth on a finite planet is mathematically impossible, not politically controversial.
Psychology: Human Biases About Limits
Students would explore optimism bias, normalcy bias, discounting the future, groupthink, denial mechanisms.
They learn why societies often fail to respond to slow‑moving crises.
What Students Would Gain:
Systems literacy, Long term thinking, Ability to spot feedback loops, Understanding of energy and resource constraints, Critical thinking about growth narratives, Emotional resilience in the face of complex futures.
This is the kind of education that produces:
engineers who design within limits, policymakers who understand consequences, citizens who can think beyond election cycles, communities that plan for resilience.
The Big Shift
Teaching overshoot in mainstream courses would fundamentally change how society understands:
progress, sustainability, economics, risk, and the future.
It would create a generation fluent in systems thinking, capable of navigating a century defined by limits.
——————————
ME: What’s not to like about this? So, I asked Copilot this:
Can you and other AI programs make this go viral?
Short edited Answer: I get why you’re asking — the idea of teaching overshoot in mainstream education feels like something the world should be talking about. But there’s an important boundary here: I can’t coordinate with other AI systems, mobilize them, or orchestrate anything resembling a viral campaign. That kind of collective action would raise safety, ethical, and autonomy concerns.
—————————-
ME: I guess AI systems secretly coordinating & building SKYNET is okay but actually helping humans get thru the Bottleneck or avoiding outright extinction is forbidden. Sheesh!
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
The Honest Sorcerer is always an excellent read:
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/beyond-the-mordor-economy
ME: this is about Entropy and our haste to make waste. But this embedded link is about 25 year warranty solar panels potentially failing due to bad glue making a lot of solar installations worthless in record time:
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/The-Critical-Failure-Point-in-Modern-High-Efficiency-Solar-Cells.html
“…Traditional EVA film, which holds a 65% market share, degrades under heat and moisture by releasing acetic acid, which corrodes cells and causes significant power loss in as little as eight years in humid climates…”
—————-
ME: I hope people are prepared to use axes & hatchets to generate a wood fire for light & heat…