Huge thanks to this month’s donor, who wishes to remain anonymous but has asked me to post a link to this poem by their friend, Arthur L Wood. I’m no great shakes when it comes to literary criticism but I was moved by its tenderness and honesty, and heartily recommend giving it a listen.
“‘A Singularly Turbulent Time’: Deeper Uncertainty in Store for Global Economy…
“Transformational changes continue to rattle the global economy, including the revolution in artificial intelligence, rapidly aging populations, climate change, and a worldwide turn against liberal democracy and a rules-based international order.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/19/business/economy/trump-trade-global-econ.html
“Budding G7 recession prompts hunt for real yields.
“With the impending arrival of a recession in some major economies, investors seeking true safe havens are looking to lock in scarce positive real yields before central banks start cutting interest rates in earnest.”
“Look around: Bubbles are everywhere….
“…innovation in tech is being turned into high-stakes speculation in a casino economy that’s overleveraged, fragile and prone to bubbles ready to pop as soon as active doubt begins to spread. “If AI and crypto were to crash, they are likely to trigger a global collapse of unimaginable proportions…””
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-bubbles-everywhere/?embedded-checkout=true
“[The 17-year period following the global financial crisis] was a mirage fueled by QE and zero rates.
“Instead of taking our medicine and throwing the bad acting bankers in jail we went this route. Now everyone thinks they’re a genius just sitting 100% long in the market with all of their wealth. It’s all a giant con.”
https://x.com/StealthQE4/status/2001102786822328709
“[US] CPI inflation print draws caution from economists: ‘It’s hard to take this data seriously’…
““It’s hard to take this data seriously. There was no data collection in October and limited collection in November,” Long said. “A key reason inflation cooled unexpectedly is a big easing in rent costs. That doesn’t match up with private sector data, and it doesn’t pass the ‘sniff test’ of reasonability.””
“UK borrowing rises to second-highest level ever.
“The government borrowed £132.3 billion between April and November, a record beaten only in 2020 during the pandemic, according to the Office for National Statistics.”
“Food production no longer profitable for English farms, says review…
“In the 2023-24 financial year, the average English farm made a net loss on agricultural activities, with state funding and diversification out of farming “providing the bulk of an average farm’s income”.”
https://www.ft.com/content/cd2a25cf-2834-4c96-a92f-0f593ee18d3e
“Angry farmers block Brussels roads with tractors over Mercosur trade deal.
“Hundreds of tractors have clogged the streets of Brussels as farmers converged on the Belgian capital to protest against the contentious trade agreement between the European Union and South American nations they say will destroy their livelihoods.”
“German government to borrow more than $600B next year.
“Record borrowing to be made next year by selling bonds to modernize infrastructure, armed forces… While Germany maintains its highest credit rating at AAA, the government’s interest costs are expected to increase due to the high level of borrowing.”
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/german-government-to-borrow-more-than-600b-next-year/3774802
“Poland “slams brakes” on green rollout to keep coal – analysts.
“(Montel) Poland is “slamming the brakes” on its renewables rollout in its latest green policy to make room for more coal-fired plants, analysts told Montel.”
“Ukraine deal: EU leaders agree €90bn loan, but without use of frozen Russian assets…
“EU leaders have pledged a €90bn loan for Ukraine to meet urgent financial needs, but failed to agree on the preferred option for many of securing that loan against Russia’s frozen assets in the bloc.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/19/ukraine-deal-latest-europe-leaders-loan-zelenskyy
“Putin calls European leaders ‘little pigs’ and says Russia will achieve Ukraine goals by diplomacy or force.
“Putin has repeatedly insisted that Kyiv cede the remaining parts of the eastern Donbas region still under Ukrainian control – a demand that the White House has at times appeared to endorse, but which Ukraine has flatly rejected.”
“The protective shield built over Reactor 4 in Chernobyl has cracked, sparking fears that the deadly radiation might start leaking…
“The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has put the facility under high risk. Grossi said that the IAEA will do everything in its power to support and restore the nuclear safety and security of the Chernobyl nuclear site.”
“Russia’s Oil Exports Face Delays as Tankers Take 70% Longer Route.
“Crude oil exports from the Russian terminals on the Black Sea were much lower in November than originally planned as bad weather and Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure have delayed loadings and departures. Ukrainian attacks have also crippled Russia’s fuel exports from the Black Sea ports in recent weeks.”
“China cuts US Treasury holdings to lowest level since 2008 amid debt ceiling fears.
“China reduced its US Treasury holdings in October to its lowest level in 17 years, as mounting concerns over US debt sustainability and the Federal Reserve’s independence further eroded confidence in dollar-backed assets.”
“China’s Growing Pile of Long-Term Debt to Deepen Pricing Stress.
“China is issuing a greater proportion of longer-maturity sovereign debt to secure financing, but the increase in supply risks pushing up yields and weighing on already-weakening demand.”
“‘Decisive end’ to China’s property boom as residential construction hits 25-year low.
“China’s property industry is undergoing its sharpest contraction in a generation, with developers dramatically scaling back new housing projects in 2025 as financial pressures and weak demand reshape the sector, Caixin Global reports.”
https://macaonews.org/news/greater-china/china-residential-construction-property/
“China urges Japan to do soul-searching regarding its historical crimes.
“Japan, as a defeated country in World War II, must do deep soul-searching regarding its historical crimes, abide by the political commitments it made on the Taiwan question, immediately stop provocative actions that cross the line, and retract its erroneous remarks, a Chinese envoy said on Thursday.”
“Japan hikes interest rate to highest level since 1995 as inflation bites…
“But Shoki Omori, chief strategist at Mizuho in Tokyo, told the BBC that the interest rate rise will do little to ease inflation as it has already been priced in by currency markets and the yen remains relatively weak.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2dz11pykwno
“US announces more than $10bn of arms sales to Taiwan.
“The Trump administration has announced a massive package of arms sales to Taiwan valued at more than $10bn that includes medium-range missiles, howitzers and drones, drawing an angry response from China.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/18/us-announces-more-than-10bn-of-arms-sales-to-taiwan
“Thailand Says Cambodia Border Fight Is Also a War on Scammers…
“Thailand’s new tone draws together two simmering crises in Southeast Asia, the border war between neighbors that has killed dozens and displaced half a million people and a sprawling scam ecosystem that has swindled billions of dollars primarily in so-called pig-butchering and call-center schemes.”
“Myanmar hospital air strikes heighten election turmoil amid global inaction…
“The Myanmar junta’s recent air strikes on a hospital just days before a general election this month are aimed at securing more territory and “intimidating” voters while major powers look the other way due to their own economic and strategic interests, according to analysts.”
“Violent protests in Bangladesh after pro-democracy figure dies in hospital.
“Thousands of protesters took to the streets of Dhaka after the death of Sharif Osman Hadi, 32, was announced, to demand that his killers be arrested. Several buildings in the capital, including those housing the country’s two leading newspapers, were set on fire, according to authorities, with staff trapped inside.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/19/sharif-osman-hadi-dead-bangladesh-violence-protests
“Rupee’s freefall tells the real story about India’s outlook…
“The forces undermining the rupee–continued demand for the dollar, a widening trade deficit, external pressures from tariffs to global trade uncertainty–aren’t going away. Not without Team Modi stepping up efforts to address the underlying cracks in India’s financial system.”
https://asiatimes.com/2025/12/rupees-freefall-tells-the-real-story-about-indias-outlook/
“Fresh clashes erupt between Afghanistan and Pakistan in Kunar.
“The clashes reportedly started on Wednesday after Pakistani forces fired rockets into Afghanistan territory. Taliban forces retaliated to the attack launched by the Pakistani forces, Afghanistan’s leading news agency Khaama Press reported.”
“Ceasefire violations | Clashes erupt between government forces and “National Guard Forces” in western Al-Suwaidaa [Syria].
“Al-Suwaidaa province: Fierce clashes erupted this dawn between members of “National Guard Forces” on one hand, and members of the government forces and their proxies on the other on the frontlines of Al-Majdal and Al-Mazraa towns in the western countryside of Al-Suwaidaa.”
https://www.syriahr.com/en/375097/
“Israeli strikes leave south Lebanon in ruins.
“Lebanon’s devastated border towns have been pounded by Israeli strikes. Sky’s Alex Crawford travels with the Blue Helmets peacekeepers to see the damage first hand.”
https://news.sky.com/video/israeli-strikes-leave-south-lebanon-in-ruins-13485202
“Egypt says gas deal with Israel ‘purely commercial without political dimensions’.
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a $35-billion natural gas deal with Egypt on Wednesday, raising controversy over the Egyptian stance regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”
“Saudi-backed forces gather on Yemen border as separatists face pressure to pull back.
“As many as 20,000 Saudi-backed forces are gathering on the border of Yemen as the separatist Southern Transitional Council comes under pressure to withdraw from the huge territorial gains it has made in the last month in the vast, oil-rich governorate on Hadramaut in eastern Yemen.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/18/saudi-backed-forces-yemen-border-separatists-stc
“Sudan war: World urged not to ignore ‘gruesome sexual violence’.
“Harrowing new details emerged on Thursday in a UN report detailing targeted sexual violence and summary executions in Sudan’s North Darfur region, attributed to paramilitary fighters who overran the city of El Fasher in late October.”
https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/12/1166624
“Algeria sends thousands of protesters to Tunis in support of Kais Saeid.
“Tunisia’s opposition has condemned what it calls blatant Algerian interference after thousands of Algerians converged on Tunis on Wednesday to bolster a rally in support of President Kaïs Saïed, coinciding with the 15th anniversary of the Tunisian revolution.”
“West African oil struggles to find buyers as global surplus builds…
“Approximately 20 million barrels of Nigerian oil for December and January loading remained unsold by Thursday, according to two traders, while Angola’s December-January programmes still had as many as five to six cargoes available.”
“Cuba Devalues Currency to Grapple With Deepening Economic Crisis.
“The Caribbean island is reeling from a deep economic contraction that has dragged on since the pandemic at a time when the US ramps up pressure on its biggest ally Venezuela, which has provided key fuel supplies for years.”
“Moscow Warns Trump Against Making ‘Fatal Mistake’ as Tensions With Venezuela Rise.
“Russian officials on Thursday warned the Trump administration against making what they called a “fatal mistake” as tensions between the United States and Venezuela escalate, while saying Moscow remains in close contact with authorities in Caracas.”
“Is the ‘energy transition’ a real thing?
“…Fossil fuel demand has kept growing amid the rise of low-carbon technology… “What has been unfolding is not so much an ‘energy transition’ as an ‘energy addition’,” the influential energy analyst and consultant Daniel Yergin argued in a co-authored piece earlier this year.”
https://www.ft.com/content/203a19ab-7007-4a02-ad8a-4ffeb4ad2f39
“Ditch net zero, shareholders urge BP…
“BP’s new chief executive must abandon net zero and steer the company decisively back to oil and gas, shareholders have said. Investors said the shock departure of chief executive Murray Auchincloss should prompt the BP to refocus on “what it does best”.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/18/ditch-net-zero-shareholders-urge-bp/
“Norway’s green transition is putting Sami culture at risk…
“As a reindeer herder, I am watching renewable energy projects threaten our land, livelihoods and an Indigenous way of life the state once tried to erase… We are told this is about green energy and the future. But at what cost, and to whom? …Why is nature valued only when it can be exploited?“
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
“I am not sure how much longer anything will work. We are getting clobbered by rain and wind here in pnw. The flooding is insane and already 2 levees have broken and roads are trashed up in the mountains the cost of this disaster will be huge.”
I just saw this late comment from Heather on the string from yesterday. Please be safe and keep us updated if possible Heather.
I tried to explain to a younger acquaintance why I am a doomer and completely cocked it up. This is maybe what I should have said instead of the garbled word salad I managed, however I’m aware that either way won’t make much difference.
Fossil fuels and other less important non-renewable minerals have allowed us to overshoot the carrying capacity of the optimal holocene environment by a factor of five to fifty. Those resources are heading towards economic unavailability and effective exhaustion.
Biodiversity destruction, pollution and climate change is reducing that capacity to between a few hundred million and zero. At worst, extinction of a few keystone species or transition to a hot house climate will mean the end of humans over some tens or hundreds of generations. We are now also reducing our own ability to survive in body an mind through poisoning with everlasting chemicals, nano-plastics and immersion in IT and social media.
We are evolved primarily to maximise our transfer of genes to subsequent generations; wanting happiness, comfort, safety are a consequence of that (for example to improve the chances that our children reach sexual maturity). As populations and resources decline conflict over opportunities will become increasingly violent. Things may look like struggles for resources, power or status but ultimately they are about access to reproductive rights.
There are no social or policy solutions to this, so arguing politics, or blaming our leaders is pointless. As things get worse we will become increasingly isolationist and blame “them”, be they of different political parties, cultures, ethnicity etc. The actual problem is each and every one of “us”. Evolution of an intelligent and dexterous species in a resource rich and environmentally propitious planet is very unlikely and would inevitably be highly disruptive, so it should be no surprise if it is also ephemeral.
Hello George,
Compared with me you are very optomistic. I expect industrial civilization to collapse sometime between tomorrow and 2050 and humans to be extinct no more than 10 years after that, with between 75% and 95% of humans being dead in the year or year and half after the cüllapse on industrial civilization.
Oh, I see that I just created a new and very appropriate word, cullapse. (maybe killapse would also be appropritae)
Hello Kurt,
I really like your word creations of cullapse & killapse. Kudos! I morphed Modernity into Murder-nity, but you have two distinctive versions.
Cullapse for being killed or culled by Mother Nature by starvation, dehydration, freezing, disease, etc.
Killapse for dying by knife, bullet, shrapnel, head caved in with a club, flaming tire around the neck, or the full-on Nuclear Gift Exchange with ICBMs, etc. Sadly, doing what Humans do Best!
I hope the dictionary companies or the Press pick your two words for “Best New Words of the Year for 2026!” Excellent job!
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I second that. Cullapse and killapse are perfect!
I think this is very good, George. You’re inspiring me to try to come up with my own version of just a few paragraphs to share when the occasion makes sense, which is probably never. 🤪 Because we all know how little reality people are open to hearing. La la la I can’t hear you! Humans are brilliant survivors. La la la!
Hello George Kaplan,
I like your writeup very much!
“…should be no surprise if it is also ephemeral.”
Nailed it! Kudos to you!
George, nice summary. I’ve rather retreated back into the doomer closet since realising that, no matter how cogent and well-researched your arguments, the vast majority of people will find a way to rationalise away what you are saying.
It just didn’t seem worth risking pariah status for, especially as I was short on solutions to offer.
When the police are beating up & arresting protesting farmers: it must surely cross their police brains that, “Hey, I am arresting the person who actually feeds my family. What the hell am I doing? My sworn Police Oath is to ‘Protect & Serve’ these citizens. What in God’s name is going wrong?”
All protestors need to start shouting ‘Overshoot & Collapse, it is coming for us all.’
The reindeer of St. Matthews Island could not protest. They could only weakly bleat out their overwhelming agony as they succumbed in huge numbers day after day. They simultaneously froze & starved in the utterly frigid Aleutian island’s winter darkness.
For them, it was a winter of bitter discontent universally shared. 99% gone in a few months!
https://www.gi.alaska.edu/alaska-science-forum/when-reindeer-paradise-turned-purgatory-0
For us? What absolute nightmares of global and local Collapse will be our reality? How fast will our Collapse be? Since the future ALWAYS belong to the young, what are the plans of parents and grandparents?
I believe it was author Naomi Klein who said something like: “Continuing business as usual [BAU] will result in the absolute worst possible outcome.”
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
edit correction by me: St. Matthew Island is much further north of the Aleutian Island Chain in the Bering Sea. Much colder climate and weather!
https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th/id/OIP.hRH5C_fna5a1OFNwBQxrdAAAAA?cb=ucfimg2&ucfimg=1&rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain&o=7&rm=3
It looks like an absolutely gorgeous place! No humans!
Hello Cassandra,
First, I apologize to Curt for miss-spelling his name as Kurt in a posting above.
I surmise that the reindeer lichens have probably substantially regrown by now over the intervening decades. If I was Steve Bezos: I would dock my huge sailboat here and release a new batch of reindeer for future food but keep their numbers at Carrying Capacity. His family aboard ship could eat well for a long, long time.
Steve also needs to buy an US Navy AEGIS battle cruiser and/or a submarine to keep the other superrich on their giant yachts from sneaking onto the island, then harvesting his entire reindeer herd.
Why the hell is Norway building wind farms in the very northern most part of the country, near or above the Arctic Circle. WTF?? Those poor Sami. Already fucked by climate change. This will be the final death knell.
On a different matter, “If AI and crypto were to crash, they are likely to trigger a global collapse of unimaginable proportions…””
Coming soon, I bet! Weeeeee haaaaaaw! 😱
That is my kind of quote, Cassandra.
Still, most analysts venturing into this sort of territory imagine that “only” a severe depression would result or that the financial system can be rebooted, which won’t happen because the operating system itself will be gone.
Modernity created net energy surplus to help us get along somewhat peacefully. Thus, when a ship started to sink: “Women and children first into the lifeboats!”
Murder-nity will be like these ancient Neanderthals: “Women and children First!”
While analyzing hundreds of Neanderthal bone fragments from a cave in Belgium, archaeologists discovered a horrifying secret: Six Neanderthals had been cannibalized 45,000 years ago, and the cannibals preferred to eat the women and children first.
https://www.livescience.com/archaeology/human-evolution/neanderthals-cannibalized-outsider-women-and-children-45-000-years-ago-at-cave-in-belgium
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob, the article seems to suggest that encroaching Homo Sapiens is indirectly to blame for the heightened intergroup suspicion and violence that led to the cannibalism. Who knows though…
More recently: “14,700 years ago, in a cave in Somerset, our ancestors were eating other people.. Museum research reveals these Ice Age Britons weren’t eating human flesh out of necessity but as part of a ritual.
“‘The evidence at Gough’s Cave points to a sophisticated culture of butchering and carving human remains,’ says Dr Silvia Bello.”
https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/the-cannibals-of-goughs-cave.html
Hello Pan, good article, thxs!
Who is going to write the Murder-nity cookbooks?
Examples:
Betty Crocker’s Head-Cracking, Lip-Smacking, Cannibalism Cooking at Home
Martha Stewart’s Favorite Skull Cap & Brain Soup Recipes
Soup to Nuts: All Parts of your Neighbor are Edible! Yep, even those Parts!
Simple Beginner Recipes & Rituals: Whistle, Sing, and Beat Drums while Butchering
Outstanding doomer humor, Bob IMO
9000 appear for 187 jobs in India . Get a handkerchief , this will make you weep . See the photo how the exam was held .
https://sambadenglish.com/latest-news/rising-unemployment-over-9000-candidates-appear-for-187-home-guard-posts-in-odishas-sambalpur-10917011
I had posted about farmer suicides . Now a farmer sold his kidney for Euro 1000 to clear debt .
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/farmer-sells-kidney-to-pay-lenders-after-rs-1-lakh-loan-soars-to-rs-74-lakh/vi-AA1SBVPU
Ravi, shocking photo as the 9000 filling out the paperwork just disappeared into the toxic smog!
Ravi, both stories are shocking.
“…the overwhelming participation reflected the growing job scarcity in the state, particularly among educated youth.”
This seems to be a problem almost everywhere: “Young people across Asia are struggling to find good jobs, with many stuck in low-productivity work that the World Bank warns could strain social stability as frustrations fuel a global wave of youth-led protests.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/10/08/companies/asia-youth-jobs-world-bank/
We somewhat have a break we are on the kitsap peninsula but the greater seattle area is a complete mess from bc down to south of Tacoma also has been hit to. Roads are damaged that go up into the cascades mountains. I am sure the damage is in pretty bad. I am traveling to denver for the holidays to get a break from the rain to go to high temps and high winds alerts. I can’t win.
Heather, have a good trip.
Colorado looks like a big fire risk right now – red flag warnings for some places. I hope we are not going to see another Marshall Fire.
Forgive me if posted before by someone else, but Prof. Rees is just too good to miss:
https://reeswilliame.substack.com/p/why-collapse-is-inevitable
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
My favorite link are those where clever apes are raping, torturing & killing other clever apes. There’s plenty of blood left to spill, more smiles ahead.