30 Comments

1. 

   zip on November 22, 2025 at 11:54 am

   The value of Hansen’s analysis lies in the fact that he proceeds entirely from physics, thermodynamics, and energy. It cuts away an enormous amount of noise. Here’s a summary.

   He argues that the world is no longer facing “political challenges,” but a thermodynamic drift that fundamentally undermines current climate policy.

   At the core of Hansen’s argument is a simple but uncomfortable graph: the annual increase in climate forcing, the disruption of Earth’s energy balance caused by greenhouse gases. That forcing is now rising by about 0.5 watts per square meter per decade — the fastest rate since the start of industrial measurements.

   Hansen stresses that this is not a model output but a physically measured quantity: more energy is entering the Earth system than the planet can radiate back into space. The ocean absorbs part of that excess heat, but even that buffer is being exhausted. The accelerating ocean warming and increasing instability of circulation systems such as the AMOC are direct symptoms of this trend.

   According to Hansen, it is precisely this acceleration that is structurally absent from the COP processes. While diplomats talk about emissions scenarios, reductions by 2050, and “net-zero roadmaps,” he focuses on the hard mechanics of the energy balance: as long as forcing rises, warming will accelerate — regardless of political intentions.

   He argues that the internationally agreed pathways to remain below 1.5°C or even 2°C are now “implausible.” Not because of a lack of goodwill, but because physical reality is changing faster than the policy-feedback systems built to manage it. The world is drifting toward the scenario the IPCC long classified as “extreme” (RCP8.5), not because it is economically desirable, but because the net forcing is pushing us in that direction.

   Hansen is sharply critical of the COP format itself: endless negotiations, non-binding declarations, and technological fantasies — from biomass with CCS to turbocharged hydrogen expansion — distract from the simple truth that the energy balance is tilting faster and faster. Necessary measures, such as a global CO₂ price and a renewed appreciation of firm power like nuclear energy, remain outside the frame.

   The COP process, he writes, has become “ineffective, ritualistic, and largely decoupled from the physical core of the climate problem.” As long as the world focuses on emissions symbolism rather than on actual forcing, warming will continue to accelerate.

   In other words: the climate problem is not a diplomatic puzzle.
   It is an energy balance.
   And energy balance does not negotiate.

   • 

     James Fenech on November 22, 2025 at 1:22 pm

     Thanks, Zip. Love your posts!

     Re: Hansen – oh my, but he really does go after IPCC in this substack article! Understandably so. Got this Hansen piece in my email today as well, Pan. Hansen asks this question:

     How effective is IPCC? Is IPCC expected to be a source of scientific advice for the United Nations? If so, how is it that the Secretary General continues to assert that it is still feasible to keep global warming from exceeding the 1.5°C limit?

     One can already see Hansen setting up for the attack to the jugular here. Next paragraph, Hansen turns up the heat!

     Does IPCC operate under the rules of science? We ask because the paper Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous,[9] which we submitted and published a decade ago, is not mentioned in the most recent (2021) IPCC assessment report (AR6).[10] Our Ice Melt paper addresses the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,[11] to “…prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system,” concluding that continued high GHG emissions are likely to cause shutdown of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) near mid-century and multi-meter sea level rise on the century time-scale, conclusions that strongly conflict with IPCC’s AR6 assessment. Our paper – because of its strong conclusions – faced and passed extensive peer-review. IPCC seems to believe that it has been granted special powers and does not need to follow the scientific method.

     (emphasis and italics mine)

     Hansen is—using formal language—unleashing hell upon IPCC here! Do they even science? Do they have super-special powers that ignores reality? And the icing on the cake of saying that they don’t even follow the scientific method correctly! This is some very polite takedown stuff, and I am here for it.

     Hansen then takes the IPCC to task for being unable to explain, in simple terms, (especially to our amazing governing bodies) both the urgency and what we should be doing about this civilization-threatening crisis:

     Does IPCC explain the core issues in a transparent fashion, understandable to policymakers? Despite great progress in clean energy development (solar, wind, geothermal), global warming has accelerated, as the growth rate of the human-made climate forcing is increasing, not declining (Fig. 1).

     Hansen states we need to take urgent action, like right now, while acknowledging that the correct time to do so was many moons ago:

     Policy choices in the next 5-10 years will be crucial for determining the world that today’s young people and their children will live in. Although that was also true 10 years ago and 20 years ago, the situation is different now. Now we are well into the period of consequences and now the danger of passing the global irreversible point-of-no-return has increased markedly.

     Thankfully, Hansen doesn’t end with the hopium us doomers are all so sick of seeing at the end of otherwise fine articles: The present global approach for addressing climate change is not only ineffectual wishful-thinking, it is irresponsible.

     Realistically, according to Hansen, our apporach should be “decadal” and not some short term: Phasedown of GHG emissions requires effective policies on decadal time scales, not mid-century targets that permit obfuscation of the absence of effective policy.

     And instead of “we got time!” hopium, Hansen states a real truth: Reassessment of the climate change situation requires quantification of policy alternatives. Reassessment must be based on the scientific method.

     Notes:

     [9] Hansen J, Sato M, Hearty P et al. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous. Atmos Chem Phys 16, 3761-812, 2016

     [10] IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis [Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A et al. (eds)]. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2021

     [11] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change? https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change (21 July 2024, date last accessed)

     • 

       James Fenech on November 22, 2025 at 1:57 pm

       Hanson

       • 

         Panopticon on November 22, 2025 at 6:53 pm

         That Hanson track is insanely catchy. It’s a “guilty pleasure” type of song.

     • 

       James Fenech on November 22, 2025 at 2:41 pm

       I apolgise. In my last 3 paragraphs, I tried to use the HTML quote unsuccessfully. IT didn’t work.

       This is what they might look better as? Feedback appeciated:

       Thankfully, Hansen doesn’t end with the hopium us doomers are all so sick of seeing at the end of otherwise fine articles:

       “The present global approach for addressing climate change is not only ineffectual wishful-thinking, it is irresponsible.”

       Realistically, according to Hansen, our apporach should be “decadal” and not some short term:

       “Phasedown of GHG emissions requires effective policies on decadal time scales, not mid-century targets that permit obfuscation of the absence of effective policy.”

       And instead of “we got time!” hopium, Hansen states a real truth:

       “Reassessment of the climate change situation requires quantification of policy alternatives. Reassessment must be based on the scientific method.”

       • 

         Panopticon on November 22, 2025 at 6:52 pm

         Thank you, Zip and James, for your thoughts. I agree – Hansen’s approach is elegant in its simplicity. You can debate the extent of the cloud/aerosol forcing but his core point that the EEI is the most fundamental physical quantity governing warming is pretty inarguable.

         The IPCC is under attack from representatives of ff-producing nations at COP30 for “not being the best available science.” They may be correct – but not for the reasons they think.

   • 

     Panopticon on November 22, 2025 at 8:19 pm

     Thank you, Zip and James, for your thoughts. I agree – Hansen’s approach is elegant in its simplicity. You can debate the extent of the cloud/aerosol forcing but his core point that the EEI is the most fundamental physical quantity governing warming is pretty inarguable.

     The IPCC is under attack from representatives of ff-producing nations at COP30 for “not being the best available science.” They may be correct – but not for the reasons they think.

2. 

   The Truth Wizard on November 22, 2025 at 2:37 pm

   So basically 2°C by 2034 and thus we’ll all be living in an absolute nightmare daily. The migrants crisis will rip apart most nations.

   But AI will save us!
   Nope

   • 

     George Kaplan on November 22, 2025 at 4:14 pm

     An El Nino next year, possibly a super El Nino, and given the high temperatures so far in November, maybe record land temperatures this year. The PDO is still setting record negative numbers, which might be all that’s keeping the sea surface temperatures down. Panopticon is going to be spoilt for choice on C days next year. At least we won’t have to listen to any more “we’re still below 1.5” rubbish.

     I think there are going to plenty of conflict related refugees by 2030 and the hydrologic cycle seems to be going even crazier even without higher temperatures, so there will be millions flooded out or facing famine this decade as well.

     • 

       Panopticon on November 22, 2025 at 7:03 pm

       “Panopticon is going to be spoilt for choice on C days next year.”

       A super El Nino would indeed keep me on my toes, George.

       Re the hydrological cycle, poor Vietnam seems to be the anti-Iran right now – a national 24-hour record for rainfall at the end of October (1.7m), and multiple bouts of torrential rain since… I’m thinking some central parts must have seen 3m+ over the past three-and-a-half weeks.

3. 

   VPK on November 22, 2025 at 4:27 pm

   COP30 closing plenary under way as fossil fuels left out of new COP30 draft deal

   Watch live

   “Hello, how are you? Please take your seats” – COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago is telling the hundreds of delegates to sit down.

   The final plenary is now open

   Live.
   606 viewing
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   Updated 1 minute ago
   COP30 closing plenary under way as fossil fuels left out of new deal

   Watch live
   Indigenous people demonstrate. They are dressed in traditional clothing and are visibly angry.
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   Summary
   The closing plenary of COP30 is under way – you can watch live at the top of the page

   The draft deal on key issues at COP30, published today, doesn’t directly mention fossil fuels in the new agreements

   Fights over fossil fuels and money appear to have deadlocked the climate talks, and the summit has run over time

   Nations have the chance to speak in the plenary – we will see if there are any fireworks,
   writes our climate correspondent Georgina Rannard in Belém

   https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cgqlqyepwylt
   COP30 has seen torrential downpours and a frightening fire – that’s before we even get to the highly contentious negotiations, writes environment editor Matt McGrath

   • 

     Panopticon on November 22, 2025 at 7:11 pm

     “Fossil fuels were not mentioned in the key final decision – petrostates including Saudi Arabia and allies fought fiercely to keep that out…. Cop30 was deliberately sited in the Amazon and the lack of significant measures [to limit deforestation] in the key Cop30 text is a disappointment…

     “Pressure to address the huge gap between the emissions cuts pledged by nations and those needed to keep the overshoot of 1.5C to a minimum ended with weaker measures than progressive nations wanted.”

     https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2025/nov/22/cop30-climate-talks-deal-overtime-live-news

     Divided we fall. That is an observation more than it is a rebuke.

4. 

   Robert Shule on November 22, 2025 at 6:02 pm

   I really cringed reading that article about that new species of Portuguese man-of-war proliferating in Japanese waters. I got hit by one of those evil creations from hell a few years ago while swimming off the east coast of Florida. The paramedics were called. The pain and the marks lasted several months after the encounter. They inject tiny balls of acid like venom deep underneath the skin that pop open whenever one moves that part of the body. If I had the choice of being hit by a stinging jelly fish, or another Portuguese man-of-war, I’ll pay to be hit by the jellyfish. I used to swim in the ocean off the Florida coast regularly for many years where Portuguese-man-of-wars are known to exist, but the possibility of actually being hit was very slim until about ten years ago. Now they are a regular feature in the waters there with a lot of them being washed up on to the beach for people to step on. So, the trend discussed in the article seems may have been going on for some time now, and possibly being worldwide.

   • 

     Panopticon on November 22, 2025 at 7:15 pm

     Well, that sounds absolutely hideous, Robert. Warmer, more acidic waters suit jellyfish just fine, so AGW is potentially a boon to them. Sad story in the news yesterday about a child fatality:

     “A two-year-old Russian boy has succumbed to his injuries after being stung by a jellyfish at a popular Malaysian tourist destination. Vladimir Iakubanets died on Wednesday at the Sultanah Bahiyah Hospital, four days after being stung by a box jellyfish at the Cenang Beach in Langkawi last week.”

     https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/southeast-asia/box-jellyfish-langkawi-sting-toddler-death-b2869619.html

5. 

   Bob Shaw on November 22, 2025 at 6:29 pm

   I propose the Press, the UN, & each countries’ Census Bureaus needs new categories for humans uprooted by Collapse; migrants or the future ‘walking dead’ is not specific enough to accurately portray the horrors directly ahead.

   Even the rich & powerful disdainfully describing most of us hapless billions as “useless eaters” is still not allowing for a more detailed breakdown.

   Therefore, those made homeless by GLacial Outburst Floods would be called Glofers in the future data files.

   Climate deniers would be insignificant compared to the huge numbers of those displaced by sea level rise wading inland labeled PFDers for their wearing of Personal Flotation Devices.

   Those fleeing high levels of toxic air pollution [such as those in New Delhi, India and Malibu, California] would be called Gaspers from lack of fresh air from industrial pollutants or raging wildfires.

   When a city or town loses sufficient electricity to even pump from wells, then filter & purify, then pump uphill to your house: those people will be in the Press articles as DoTers for Dying of Thirst.

   Homeless farmers and ranchers whose aquifers depleted would be called Dehydrators as their crops and livestock die and dry to dust.

   Okay, enough for now. Perhaps other commenters will post more types of migrants.

   Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

6. 

   Rob on November 22, 2025 at 6:35 pm

   Noticeably lacking from all the discussion at COP is any mention of the main ingredient in the climate’s derangement: unmitigated and accelerating (human and its food animals and crops) population growth. Without addressing this root cause, Everything else is hot, and getting hotter, air.

   Every one of the members of the UN Security Council advocates for their own nation’s population to not only increase, but to do so at a rate exceeding that which it is currently; while each one of the major religions keep a death grip on the throat of any civilian government that tries to rein in the flood of humans overrunning the planet, choking the life out of every and anything in its way … meanwhile, the only humans left in this world who actually live a sustainable life in harsh harmony with nature: indigenous peoples.

   With the overt return of MAGAfist Destiny, these peoples will suffer the same fate as their North American counterparts. As the techno-class builds bunkers and “space” ships (that never actually venture into space) as their insurance against disaster. But on a global scale, that “solution” is ludicrous, if mankind is to survive, it is likely that it will do so only if there are populations left that have retained their capacity for survival in nature, not in the dreary confines of an orbiting prison.

   Ergo, we will continue to eradicate habitats to fund Spaceballs.

   Luckily, though, in the interim we have Joshua Bell:

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbJZeNlrYKg

   • 

     Panopticon on November 22, 2025 at 7:36 pm

     Rob, overpopulation is such a combustible topic. It is all too easy for people to infer some creepy eugenicist agenda if you even broach the subject, but you are right – it is very much the elephant in the room.

     Some nations like Egypt and Bangladesh have recognised that they have an overpopulation problem and run birth control campaigns, but that is slowing growth rates rather than throwing them into reverse.

     “Bangladesh now global role model in birth control… For the effective initiative of the government, the population growth rate is now 1.37 percent which was 2.46 percent in 1974…

     “This campaign was conducted under different slogans like ‘a small family is a happy family’, ‘boy or girl, two children are enough’, ‘not more than two children, one is better’ etc, and widely broadcasted in different media outlets, disseminating a message on the benefits of small families.”

     https://www.bssnews.net/news/237406

     Joshua Bell is making a pretty good noise, even through my crappy Logitech speakers. 😅

   • 

     Robert Shule on November 22, 2025 at 9:10 pm

     Actually, you’ll be surprised; population is not the main driver causing climate change. The single core reason for our climate change problem is the need for compounding returns on monetary investments in our current capitalistic economic system. Population is a quality of life factor, which sure, we all do want a certain quality of life, and so it is good to bring the population down, but that is not what is driving the whole mess. In reality population growth is driven by economic growth, not the other way around. Check out this rather long read in which population is discussed toward the end; https://helmetdestroyer570.substack.com/p/carbon-dioxide-environment-and-the?r=5f23dk&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

     • 

       Rob on November 24, 2025 at 5:18 pm

       That’s pretty funny … you should do stand up.

   • 

     Cassandra on November 22, 2025 at 10:48 pm

     Joshua Bell is of course amazing but TCHAIKOVSKY? ARE YOU A PUTIN LOVER? 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

     Just kidding!!

     Thanks so much for that. I watched and listened to the whole thing. It definitely is a great antidote to the dreary task of witnessing the decline and fall of IC, plus ecocide.

     Such passion! 👏👏👏

     • 

       Cassandra on November 23, 2025 at 2:07 pm

       Since it’s Sunday I will ask forbearance in clogging up the comments section with non doom subject.

       Rob, here is my personal favorite violin concerto.

       https://youtu.be/xr9KmgDFwMc

       I enjoyed this comment and agreed with his delight:

       “Thank you for living Patricia Kopatchinskaja. You jumped, you danced, you cried, you sang, you laughed and you loved – that is what music and life calls us to do and you did this for us and not for you. To give your heart and touch the hearts and souls of others is true artistry and true humanity.

       Many knowledgeable listeners and musicians will have found this performance challenging. I know this piece very well and have played this piece many times (not so well!) and have had the privilege to see many live performances played by among others Perleman, Zukerman, Menuhin, Hahn, Vengerov, Mutter, Repin, Rachlin, Schumsky, Mintz, Rosand, Ricci and I have studied many recordings of Heifetz, Neveu, Oistrakh, Kreisler, Rabin, Milstein to name only a well known small proportion of a much larger number.

       Many of these true virtuoso giants ascended the music and touched our hearts but few reached into the soul – perhaps Menuhin’s recording with Furtwangler in 1947 achieved this feat. However, this girl is a wonder – she made herself, her heart and soul, available and made Beethoven available to us and to our hearts and souls through a deep appreciation of the score(s) and a willingness to abandon certain traditional conventions. This is the very essence of artistry. The fact is that each musician brings their own personality into their playing and therefore is unique but to bring the personality of the composer to the audience this is a rare experience.

       This incredible artist has a deep understanding gifted to a very few that enables her to really understand and she is gifted also with an extraordinary technique that enables her to unlock the personal expression of the musician together with the interpretation of the composer. It is a unique performance and I am truly grateful.”

       • 

         Panopticon on November 23, 2025 at 2:37 pm

         Cassandra, I am very happy to have my comments section “clogged” with such gorgeous high culture, especially on a Sunday when my brain is on stand-by mode. 😅

7. 

   Bob Shaw on November 22, 2025 at 7:00 pm

   As Tehran, Iran will probably run out of water, I predict the onset of the “Imam I Ran 10k”.

   Those in power will be the first to evacuate, not only to enjoy the comforts of flowing water elsewhere [perhaps Dubai?], but also to flee the thirsty Tehranians seeking to remove their heads for terrible mismanagement and lack of planning.

   Reminds me of the illustrious Captain Schettino of Costa Concordia cruise ship fame. He abandoned his sinking ship and passengers to “more effectively direct rescue efforts from the safety of land”.

   True justice would be the poor of Tehran evacuated first, Imams and the rich last. Place your bets now on who is saved and who will be dessicated like a piece of beef Jerry.

   Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

   • 

     Panopticon on November 22, 2025 at 7:41 pm

     Bob, I remember the incident and the dashing but cowardly captain well. He was making headlines in January for seeking an early release, although I’m not sure what came of that.

     For some reason, the story reminded me of his remarkably brave countryman, Fabrizio Quattrocchi: “Quattrocchi was taken hostage together with three fellow Italians, Umberto Cupertino, Maurizio Agliana and Salvatore Stefio. They had been working in Iraq as security contractors under contract with DTS Security LLC…

     “Quattrocchi’s kidnappers forced him to dig his own grave and kneel beside it wearing a hood as they prepared to film his death, but he defied them by trying to pull off the hood and shouting “Vi faccio vedere come muore un italiano!” – “I’ll show you how an Italian dies!” He was then shot in the back of the neck.”

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabrizio_Quattrocchi

     No rain forecast for Tehran, certainly until December.

8. 

   Heather B on November 23, 2025 at 2:24 am

   The fact that ipcc is crying that people don’t buy their science anymore is laughable. The ipcc being set up under the Regan/ bush administration and with the blessings of the oil lobby to purposely destroy and deceive tge public that things arent that bad and its fixable. Many wonder why things are so bad and people don’t want kids when you can’t pay for food or pay off your student loans. While preaching use ai while infrastructure is being destroyed daily. This administration has single handed a death sentence to our crappy healthcare system which was already bad enough before because heathcare companies ceos need more money. After reading and listening to the biography of Elon musk and now open ai scum pond sewer rat Sam Altman i don’t have the vocabulary to use for my anger. The faster western civilization collapses the better to stop the killings of innocent souls and insane culture we live in. I am sick and tired of reading and listening to the abuse of women and children in our so called holy than art thou churches. Nothing in our culture is worth saving. Not sure what the tipping point will be but if i am angry i am sure there are alot of that are fed up to with things.

   • 

     Panopticon on November 23, 2025 at 2:33 pm

     Heather, the IPCC is such a huge, bureaucratic organisation, incorporating thousands of naturally reticent scientists, contributing work that has to go through the peer-review process then be reviewed across 195 member governments…

     It just isn’t fleet footed enough to keep up with events on the ground or autonomous enough to be honest about the threat-level.

9. 

   Survivalist on November 23, 2025 at 4:39 pm

   We got about 2, maybe 3, El Niños left until all hell breaks loose. I recommend laying low for a bit and munching on freeze dried strawberries. They’re totally addictive!

   Once the dust has settled down a bit you might be able to find a reasonable existence for yourself as you possibly become one of the last people to ever live. Sweep up before you leave.

   • 

     Kali on November 23, 2025 at 9:38 pm

     I remember freeze dried strawberries from childhood hiking trips. Yeah, not bad!

     “Sweep up before you leave.” LOL

10. 

    TR on November 24, 2025 at 3:18 am

    “Sometimes the greatest way to say something
    Is to say nothing at all” – “Say Something”, Written by: Tim Mosley, Nate Hills, Justin R. Timberlake, Chris Stapleton, Larrance Levar Dopson

    Being surrounded by 8 billion egotistical fools, as in them destroying their only habitat, it’s hard to not say something. I do apologize to those with the slogan; “It’s not my fault.” Certainly wouldn’t want to condemn deniers. Just moved this to the top of my bucket list – Let their hypocrisy destroy them.

    I will not apologize for my joy in watching the self inflicted pain & suffering, no one will be getting a pardon.

11. 

    TR on November 24, 2025 at 3:56 am

    What’s your country’s political subdivisions’ favorite unregulated capitalist method of destroying it’s habitat?

    https://pratt.duke.edu/news/uncovering-the-source-of-widespread-forever-chemical-contamination-in-north-carolina/